First Friday: When the Gov’t is Closed, Where Do We Find the Numbers?

0:00Well, this is an unusual first Friday because we don't have a jobs report. But we do know that in October, U.S. companies announced more job cuts in a single month than they have over any single month of the last 20 years. In other words, October was peak job cut month. By contrast, private payrolls, as reported by ADP, rose by 42 ,000 in October. So we have a little bit of conflicting data. Some pessimistic, some optimistic. We're going to take a deeper look at that in today's episode. We also have a new Fed rate cut. some mixed signals in the housing market, and good news about prescription drug prices.

0:35We're going to cover all of that in today's First Friday Economic Update. Welcome to the Afford Anything podcast, the show that knows you can afford anything, not everything. This show covers five pillars, financial psychology, increasing your income, investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. It's double-I fire. I'm your host, Paula Pant. I have a master's in economic reporting from Columbia. Typically, on our Tuesday episodes, we normally answer questions that come from you, and on our Friday episodes, we normally interview guests. But there's one exception, and that exception is the first Friday of every month.

1:10That's when we host a special First Friday macroeconomic update, taking a wide lens look at the economy around us. So welcome to the November 2025 First Friday Economic Update. We'll start with a look at jobs, because if you want to understand what's happening in the economy, Don't look at the stock market. Look at the bond market and look at jobs. And this month is unusual because typically the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its jobs report on the first Friday of every month, which is why we host these episodes on this day. But we don't have that this month. Instead, what we do have is a report from a private payroll processor called ADP.

1:52They independently measure the jobs market through weekly payroll data from more than 26 million private sector employees in the U.S. What they found is that private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July. So they found that in October, the U.S. grew by 42 ,000 new jobs. The bulk of those were in service-providing jobs, including trade, transportation, and utilities, financial activities, and education and health services. They found net job losses in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and information. Regionally, the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic lost jobs, while the West, particularly the Pacific areas, were net job gainers.

2:41And when it came to the size of businesses, small businesses and mid-sized businesses lost jobs, minus 10 ,000 for small businesses, meaning 49 or fewer employees. Medium businesses, which are between 50 to 499 employees, also lost jobs by an order of 21 ,000. But big businesses, defined as 500 or more employees, gained jobs by a total of 73 ,000. By the way, if you're wondering why 73 ,000 is a much bigger number than the 42 ,000 net new jobs reported in October, it's because we're taking the 72 ,000 jobs that big businesses created or added and subtracting the losses from the midsize and small companies.

3:23So according to the ADP report, which again only focuses on private sector data, big businesses added jobs last month, particularly in the western half of the U.S. The same report also found that pay growth was flat last month. ADP is not the only player in town, and we have some more pessimistic data, this coming from an outplacement firm called Challenger Gray and Christmas. They found that U.S. companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than 20 years. Their data shows that companies announced 153 ,000 job cuts last month, which is triple the number of job cuts as compared to October of last year, and which amounts to the most job cuts for any October since 2003.

4:15Their data shows that these job cuts are largely in the technology and warehousing sectors, and driven largely by AI. They also found that year-to-date, job cuts have exceeded 1 million, which is the most since the pandemic, and U.S.-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans are the lowest since the firm began tracking in 2012. Again, this is all data coming from Challenger Gray and Christmas, which is a private outplacement firm. Okay, let's get data from a third firm, Reveglio Labs. They released data yesterday, Thursday, showing that the U.S. had an overall decrease in employment of 9 ,000 jobs in October.

4:59Reveglio Labs data says that the U.S. lost 9 ,000 jobs in October. ADP data says that the U.S. gained 42 ,000 jobs in October. Now, ADP, I should say, of all of these various private sector companies that we're looking at, ADP is the behemoth. They have a tremendous sample size and they are widely trusted, but it is still a good practice to look at data from a variety of sources. And according to Reveglio Labs, which unlike ADP includes public sector jobs in its calculations, we had an overall decline of about 9 ,000 jobs in October, largely driven by the public sector. But there were a couple of industries, notably the education and health services industries, that increased employment.

5:47And I should note that Reveglio's data on the education and health services industries mirrors what ADP also said. They're in agreement that the biggest job gains are coming from education and health care. There are a couple of other aggregate measures that are a little bit concerning when it comes to unemployment. One is youth unemployment. We're seeing large numbers of the 16 through 24 age cohort unemployed, much more so than usual. Another is the number of long-term unemployed. According to BLS data, as of August, the number of long-term unemployed, defined as people who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more, which is a little over six months, that number has increased by 385 ,000 over the past year.

6:39And long-term unemployed account for one quarter of all unemployed people, that's data as of August. Now, that is the highest percentage since February of 2022. And it's a ratio that's increased by 4.2 percentage points over the last year. Even though, according to the last official data that we have, the unemployment rate, which is 4.3%, and the total number of unemployed people, which is 7.4 million, those numbers have been remarkably steady. But despite that steadiness, the number of long-term unemployed inside of those figures has grown. That's at least the picture that we're left with based on the last official data that we have.

7:24Now, we also know that unemployment among people ages 16 to 24 is the highest that it's been since the pandemic. As of August, youth unemployment was 10.5%. And that's the highest that it's been since February of 2021 in the middle of the pandemic. At that time, it was 10.9%. Now, as to why that is, there's, of course, we can only speculate, but a few ideas that have been floated include the fact that in a soft job market, when there are fewer new jobs that are being created, the inexperienced are unlikely to get hired. The few jobs that are available are likely to go to more experienced workers.

8:09That could be one reason. That's another way of saying of the jobs that are being created, fewer of them are entry level. In addition to that, or perhaps corresponding with that, AI can take over a lot of entry level tasks, which leads to a displacement of college graduates from those types of jobs. One question that I received recently from a listener who reached out on Twitter, they asked, how is it possible for unemployment to be historically low while at the same time we're losing jobs? Fed Chair Jerome Powell phrased the answer very, very well when he said, quote, you've got a low-firing, low-hiring environment, end quote.

8:56So low-firing, low-hiring, People who have jobs are staying in their jobs. That's the good news. But not a lot of new jobs are getting created. And that means it's harder than ever for particularly younger workers to break into the job market. By the way, in that same set of remarks, Jerome Powell warned against assigning too much blame to AI. He talked about how AI, quote, may be part of the story, end quote. But he also said that he believes that some of the main drivers are a broadly slowing economy and restraint in hiring given a sluggish economy. And JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed a similar sentiment when he talked about how if the markets stay good and they run their company well, AI will not cause net job losses inside of JPMorgan.

9:50But in fact, it will cause some people to transfer or shift jobs, but could actually lead to hiring. So all of that is to say, we know that there is sluggish job growth, particularly at the entry level. And while many people want to point the finger at AI for that, AI is one element of a mosaic of factors. Speaking of Jerome Powell, on October 29th, the Fed issued a second consecutive rate cut, cutting rates again by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the target range of the Fed funds rate to between 3.75 to 4 percent. There were, and this is interesting, there were two dissenting votes, but for opposite reasons.

10:36One of the dissenting votes came from a member of the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee, who wanted a bigger cut, a half point cut rather than a quarter point. The other dissenting vote came from someone who wanted no cut at all. Now, the reason two dissenting votes are interesting, and I've spoken about this in previous episodes, for decades, the Fed has largely had a practice of not publicly indicating dissent. You know, if you go way back to the 1970s or 1980s, you go back to the Volcker years, there was dissent in the Fed then. But if you go to the 90s and the Greenspan years, the Fed wanted to present a public image of everybody being in alignment.

11:20That is no longer the case. In the past handful of Fed meetings, we've been starting to see dissent. And the fact that there were two dissenting votes this time around shows that dissent is now a thing again inside of the Fed, which indicates a cultural shift from the way that it used to be. Okay, so if you're sitting here thinking, all right, that's great that the culture inside the Fed's changing, but how is that going to impact me? A lowered fence funds rate means a couple of things. Number one, for any borrowing that you do, it largely will make things better. Car loans, mortgages, we'll talk more about that in a moment.

11:57Car loans, mortgages, any personal loans that you take out, those rates are likely going to go down. On the other hand, for money that you're saving in your high-yield savings account, those yields are likely also going to go down. So anytime rates lower, it's good for borrowers, bad for savers. Now, the Fed is going to meet one more time. They're going to be meeting in December of this year. One more time this year, I should say. One more time this calendar year. They're going to be meeting in December. and Jerome Powell has not given any hint as to how they are leaning for that meeting, whether they're going to cut rates for a third consecutive time or not.

12:32That said, the markets are pricing in a decent probability that the Fed will. Goldman Sachs is forecasting that the Fed is going to cut rates in December. And according to CME FedWatch, investors across the board are forecasting a 65 % probability of a cut. Meanwhile, mortgage interest rates as of today, the first Friday, November 7th, the current average interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.26%. That's according to Bankrate. That is significantly lower than it was in June, July, August. But it's still not down to the 6 % number that the National Association of Realtors states is going to be an inflection point line.

13:19Now, I should note that it isn't the Fed funds rate per se that impacts mortgage interest rates. It's the 10-year Treasury yield, which right now is 4.15, which is up from around 4 % last week. The Fed funds rate influences the 10-year Treasury, but other factors such as inflation and economic worries play into the 10-year Treasury as well. In any event, big picture, mortgage interest rates are at 6.26 right now. It's a big improvement from over the summer, but it's not quite where we need it to be in order to see some bigger moves in the housing market. For that to happen, to see more buyers enter the market, to see more inventory start moving, we want to get that interest rate below 6%.

14:05According to data from Redfin using data gathered during the second quarter of 2025, about one out of every five mortgaged homeowners has an interest rate that is 6 % or greater. and just shy of one out of every 10 homeowners has an interest rate that's between 5 % to 5.9%. So the reason that we want mortgage interest rates to fall below 6 % is because when we can get into that five-handle zone, that one out of every 10 mortgage homeowner that has a current mortgage rate that's in the five-handle, they get freed up from the lock-in effect. They feel the freedom to be able to sell out of their current home and buy into a new one because they're not going to be trading a substantially lower interest rate for a substantially higher one.

14:52And the more currently mortgage homeowners that you can free from that lock-in effect, the more you can create activity in the real estate market again, which right now there's not a lot of activity. It's a great time to be a buyer because you're not going to have a lot of competition. But as a seller, it's a pretty yucky time because there's just not a lot of activity. There aren't a lot of buyers. So that's what's going on to the best of our ability to understand it, given the data limitations that we currently have. That is what is currently going on with the jobs market, employment, unemployment, job creation.

15:27And that's what's going on with the Fed funds rate and interest rates overall. We're going to take a break to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible. When we return, we're going to cover some of the other things that have been happening. Social security is going to increase payments. There is some very good news about prescription costs. There's some bad news about car loans. Many more car loans are going into default than they have historically. We're going to talk about all of that and more next. The holidays are such a busy time of year, and I want to give my family one last relaxing weekend away before the new year.

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18:48Welcome back. Oh, before we get into all of our other information, there's one other source of jobs data that I left out, and that comes from Indeed.com, which I should note is a sponsor of this podcast. So do with that information what you will. They're not paying me to use them in the content itself. They don't even know that I'm talking about them right now, but full disclosure, they are a sponsor. According to Indeed, new job postings have declined to their lowest level in four years. That's specifically U.S. data. So based on their U.S. data, job postings were much worse during the pandemic.

19:24So during 2020, it was a lot worse, but it then peaked right at the end of 2021, beginning of 2022. That was when it hit a high. And now it is down to a point that is about equivalent to end of 2020, beginning of 2021. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment fell by 6 % in November, and that was led by a 17 % drop in current personal finances and an 11 % decline in year ahead expected business conditions. In other words, people's personal financial situation got worse and they don't expect things to get better. And so consumer sentiment is down. There is one exception to this.

20:08Quote, consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11 % increase in sentiment supported by continued strength in stock markets. End quote. According to the University of Michigan, across the population, across all age brackets, all income brackets, and all political affiliations. Sentiment is down. People are feeling pessimistic. And the one exception to this are people who own a lot of stocks because those portfolio balances are up. And that provides for a degree of hope and optimism in what are otherwise worrying times. So moral of the story, keep buying stocks, keep investing.

20:51Social Security payments are going to increase by 2.8 % in 2026. This is a cost of living adjustment that the Social Security Administration just announced a couple weeks ago. This is going to become effective in January of 2026. And this 2.8 % increase will affect payments that Social Security makes to over 75 million Americans. This cost of living adjustment is based on changes in the Consumer Price Index. And for the average retiree, this translates to an extra$56 a month or$672 a year. That would be for a retiree receiving an average benefit of around$2 ,008 per month. By the way, the big cost of living adjustment came in 2023 on the heels of that big inflation.

21:40At that time, there was a 8.7 % cost of living adjustment. Speaking of living costs, the most recent CPI data that we have, which is for September, shows that over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 3 % before seasonal adjustment. Gas prices are actually down year over year by one half of 1%, but used car and truck prices are up 5.1 % year over year. And as of September, medical care services, health services were up 3.9 % year over year. So there are a couple of key sectors that are outpacing inflation. Speaking of the price of used cars and trucks going up at much faster than the rate of inflation, that leads to our next story.

22:32Vehicle repossessions have dramatically increased. Vehicle repossessions are now at the highest level than they've been since 2009. they're up 43 % between 2022 to 2024. As of August, filings for vehicles rose six straight months year over year and were up 18 % over the same period in 2024. That's according to the property data firm, Adam, A-T-T-O-M. Now, according to second quarter 2025 data from Experian, the average monthly car payment is$749 a month for a new car and$529 a month for a used car. And that's based on the average new car price being over$50 ,000. Now, as of the second quarter of 2025, 42 % of vehicles that were financed were new vehicles.

23:29And the other 57%, 57.8 % of cars that were financed were used vehicles in that same quarter, in second quarter 2025. And I just mentioned the average payments, but just to show you the range, 17 % of new car payments are over$1 ,000 a month, and only 10 % of monthly payments are under$400 a month. That's among people who purchase new cars. Now, with used cars, the numbers are a lot better. Only 4 % of used car payments are over a grand a month, and a solid one-third of used car payments are under$400 a month. We talked about how the average cost of a new car is over$50 ,000. New loan amounts, according to Bankrate, throughout 2025 have been fairly stable throughout the year at$41 ,983.

24:24So the data shows that more and more of people's money is going towards cars. that is getting to be an increasingly big bite of the budget. And in tandem with that, vehicle repossessions are increasing. The data also shows that if you want a payment of less than$400 a month, buying a used car is the way to do that. The other benefit to a used car or to a fully paid off car is that you can opt for minimum coverage. So according to Bankrate, full coverage on average costs$223 per month, but minimum coverage on average costs$67 per month. So if you've got a fully paid off car and you've got a big emergency fund, then you could opt for minimum coverage, which would create some significant savings.

25:12And then those savings, of course, can get diverted into a separate savings account that you dedicate towards buying your next car in cash. I like to refer to that as making a car payment to yourself. So once you're done paying off your car, then you just keep making those same payments. But now you're not paying a bank anymore. Now you're just making that same car payment to yourself. I mentioned earlier that the cost of health care is rising faster than the level of inflation, but there is some good news on the horizon. So on October 10th, the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca agreed to bring U.S.

25:47drug prices in line with the lowest prices that are paid by other developed nations. This is something that's called the most favored nation price. This follows on the heels of an agreement that Pfizer made in late September to also do the same thing. So both Pfizer and AstraZeneca will now be bringing drug prices in the U.S. down to the lowest price that any developed nation pays, the most favored nation price. This agreement requires both Pfizer and AstraZeneca to offer medicines at a deep discount off of the list price when they're selling directly to American patients. It provides every state Medicaid program in the country access to the most favored nation drug prices.

26:25It requires the pharmaceutical companies to repatriate increased foreign revenue on existing products. And AstraZeneca also announced, in addition to all of this, that it will invest$50 billion in U.S. manufacturing and research by 2030, including building a new facility in Virginia, which will create 3 ,600 highly skilled jobs. a little context around why this matters. So Americans pay for brand name drugs at rates that are three times the price of other nations that are inside the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which is kind of another way of saying many developed nations.

27:06To state that more simply, Americans pay three times the rate of people in other developed nations for many brand name drugs. And that figure is even after accounting for discounts that are provided by manufacturers. Stated very simply, Americans pay much, much higher prices than people in other nations, including other developed nations, for the exact same drug that's made in the same factory. And not just a little more, but three times more. And so between the Pfizer deal in September and the AstraZeneca deal in October, that is now starting to shift. So that is some good news for your wallet.

27:48Okay, actually, breaking news update. So that segment about AstraZeneca and Pfizer, I scripted and researched on Wednesday. So that's what you just heard. And then on Thursday, even more brand new news came out, which I'm about to tell you now, which are new deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. As of Thursday, so by the time you're listening to this, if you listen to this on First Friday, as of yesterday, there's a new deal with both of those companies as well in which the price of obesity drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovi, will significantly drop. Now, these drugs are typically not covered by insurance, and Ozempic out-of-pocket, which is how most people pay for it, costs$1 ,000 a month.