First Friday: Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever

0:01Happy First Friday, 4th of July, Independence Day. This is the day when the Founding Fathers officially announced through the Declaration of Independence that the 13 colonies were breaking free from the authority of the British crown. Happy birthday, America. And First Friday is, of course, the one day of the month when this podcast takes a departure from our regular programming to share a monthly macroeconomic update. And this year, they've joined forces. So welcome to the 4th of July, first Friday on the Afford Anything podcast. This is the show that knows you can afford anything, but not everything.

0:40The show covers five pillars, financial psychology, increasing your income, investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. And as I mentioned, once a month on the first Friday of the month, we pause our typically evergreen programming to share a snapshot about what's happening in the economy, in the markets over the span of the last month. And so welcome to the 4th of July, First Friday. It's a big day. President Trump is expected to sign his new domestic policy bill into law this afternoon. We'll unpack what's inside of that later in the show. Tariffs are going to go back into place starting July 9th.

1:17The 90-day pause on tariffs, which was implemented in April, is set to expire five days from now on the 9th of July. We're going to talk more about that. The jobs report is incredibly nuanced, and I want to unpack beyond the headlines to see what's really going on in our jobs market. We're going to talk about housing. We're going to talk interest rates. We're going to talk about the strength of the U.S. dollar. But before we get to all of that, I want to share some Fourth of July trivia. Let's start with a quick history lesson. What was happening around this time, 249 years ago? Well, on June 28th, 1776, there was a five-member committee that was in charge of drafting the formal declaration.

1:53And on June 28th, they presented that draft declaration to Congress. It was a super short document, only around 1 ,300 words. And four days later, on July 2nd, Congress voted in favor of the Declaration of Independence in an almost unanimous vote. New York abstained. But even though they voted in favor of it, they kept editing it. And so it was two days later, on July 4th, 1776, that Congress formally adopted and signed the Declaration of Independence. And 249 years later, here we are. And this is an economics episode, not a history episode. So I will leave it there. But I do want to share one more piece of Fourth of July trivia, because the thing that I'm about to tell you next, I think is fascinating because it's so statistically improbable.

2:41There have been a total of 45 U.S. presidents. Our current President Trump, we call him number 47 because two of those presidents have served non-consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland is counted as both the 22nd and 24th, and President Trump is counted as both the 45th and 47th. In total, there have been 45 U.S. presidents over the span of the last 236 years. George Washington became president in 1789. Now, of those 45 presidents, three out of 45, meaning 6.7 % of all presidents that we've ever had, passed away on the 4th of July. That is so statistically improbable. If you could rerun American history 4 ,000 times, this would happen maybe once.

3:28And we happen to live in that one timeline where the improbable became reality, right? For one out of every 365 days of the year, to have that kind of concentration on a single day That is an oddity of history. And two out of the three presidents that passed on the 4th were signers of the Declaration of Independence. So Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both signed the Declaration and both passed away on the exact same day, which was July 4th, 1826. And the other president who passed on the 4th was James Monroe. And that happened exactly five years later, July 4th, 1831. So that is an oddity of U.S.

4:07history, weird history. But if you're sharing 4th of July trivia with your family at the barbecue tonight, that is an interesting tidbit to keep in your back pocket. Moving off of history and onto economics. This afternoon, President Trump is expected to sign his domestic policy bill, known as the Big Beautiful Bill, into law. We are recording this at 12 noon Eastern on the 4th of July. As of now, the bill signing has not happened. But by the time you hear this, it likely will have already taken place. Now, the core of this bill is the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. And so this bill keeps in place a round of tax cuts that were made in 2017, which means that as taxpayers, we're not going to see our taxes decrease further.

4:51We're simply not going to see an increase. And without the extension of the 2017 tax reduction, for most Americans, taxes would have otherwise increased. The extension of the tax cuts comes at a cost. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add$3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. As we talked about in last month's First Friday episode, the debate around CBO numbers centers around the question of whether or not, among other things, whether or not it adequately takes into account GDP growth stemming from reinvestments that are triggered by tax cuts, which would have an offsetting effect to national debt levels.

5:35Some people will argue that the CBO is great at estimating that. Others will argue that it is not. For a much more detailed discussion about that, listen to last month's First Friday episode, where we covered the CBO methodology in much more detail. For now, we'll keep our attention on what the passage of this bill means for you. This bill makes cuts to Medicaid and other entitlement programs. It adds limits to student loan borrowing and makes changes to federal aid eligibility. and it rolls back tax credits for clean energy. I want to spend some time talking about its impact on student loan borrowing and federal aid eligibility because that's the issue that's going to affect the majority of people who are listening to this.

6:20I know many of you, and likely most of you, either currently have student loans, previously had student loans, or you're saving for college expenses for your children, nieces, nephews, grandchildren. First, the bill eliminates most existing income-driven repayment plans and replaces them with a standard repayment plan that's based on loan amounts ranging between 10 to 25 years. There's also a new repayment assistance plan, which is based on a borrower's annual income, which would be measured at between 1 % to 10 % of discretionary income. The new bill also imposes a$65 ,000 lifetime cap on Parent PLUS loans, which previously Parent PLUS loans, the limit was based on the cost of attendance.

7:07Now that limit has a lifetime cap of$65 ,000. In addition, Parent PLUS loans are no longer eligible for repayment programs. The bill also eliminates the Graduate Plus loan program, and it implements new caps on loans that grad students can take out. Under this new bill, the cap for a master's degree is$100 ,000. The cap for med school, law school, or certain professional degrees is$200 ,000. There's great news for anyone with a 529 plan. The bill expands eligible 529 expenses. Specifically, it expands the types of K-12 expenses that can be paid for with 529 plans, including books, tutoring, and more.

7:53And that's in addition to increasing the annual withdrawal limit for K-12 tuition to$20 ,000. There's also good news for small business owners and small family farmers. So the bill reinstates the asset exemption for family farms and small businesses when determining a student's federal aid eligibility. At some point, I've had this idea brewing in my head for a while. At some point, I want to write a newsletter around the ultimate guide to getting through college without taking out too much debt. And particularly in light of some of these changes to student loan borrowing and federal aid eligibility, I think now would be a particularly good time to do that.

8:37So I've, in the back of my brain, been sketching out an outline for it. It'll probably be a few weeks before I have it written and sent out, but that's a newsletter topic that I think is timely and needed. So if that's something that interests you, go to affordanything.com slash newsletter, sign up for our newsletter. It's free, and I will likely have that written, I'd say, at some point in July, though I'm not quite sure when. Again, that's affordanything.com slash newsletter. The signing of the bill is not the only major news event that's expected to happen today. Today, the president will also start sending letters to the heads of dozens of countries to inform them of the tariff rate that will be imposed on them.

9:22And this tariff rate will range from a low of between 10 to 20 percent to as high as 60 to 70 percent, according to remarks that President Trump made to reporters last night. That means that some countries may experience a rate that is higher than the original round of tariffs. Now, if you recall, the original round of tariffs were announced on Liberation Day in early April. And the original round of tariffs ranged from 11 percent, a low of 11 percent, that was for the Democratic Republic of Congo, up to a high of 50 percent, that was for Lesotho. To be clear, those are the rates that were imposed on specific countries that would be on top of a 10 percent baseline tariff.

10:10Those original tariffs were imposed only on U.S. trading partners, and they were calculated using a formula that took into account the trade deficit between the U.S. and the other country. So Lesotho, for example, Lesotho is a country that is entirely landlocked by South Africa. So imagine an island, except instead of an island being surrounded by water, that island is surrounded entirely by another country. That's Lesotho. It's a quote unquote island, so to speak, but landlocked and surrounded on all sides entirely by South Africa. Now, we have a big trade deficit with Lesotho because we import jewels from Lesotho, specifically diamonds.

10:57We import a lot of diamonds from Lesotho. We also get a lot of textiles from them. Textiles and diamonds are the two main imports that the U.S. receives from Lesotho, or to say it a different way, those are the two main exports that Lesotho exports to the U.S. But Lesotho is also a very poor country. about half the population lives below the national poverty line, and a significant portion of them experience extreme poverty. Lusuthu has a GDP per capita of around$974 per person. That's in U.S. dollars. For the entire nation, the nominal GDP of Lusuthu is only$2.1 billion. And so it doesn't import a lot of things from the U.S.

11:41because, frankly, it's too poor to do so. For that reason, we have a huge trade deficit with them, which is why in the original round of tariffs, Lesotho got hit the hardest with the 50 % tariff. What will be interesting to see now that the letters, and again, President Trump is going to be sending these letters out today. So we will find out in a few days time what the new tariff rates are. What will be interesting to see is whether or not these rates have been adjusted over the span of the last three months. Why three months now? As you recall, after the original round of tariffs were announced in early April on Liberation Day, the bond markets reacted disfavorably to that announcement.

12:27After a few days, the White House announced a 90-day pause on tariffs. That 90-day pause is set to expire on July 9th, five days from now. During this 90-day interim period, there have been negotiations going on with other nations, and some of those have been successful. So, for example, Britain and the U.S. reached a deal that leaves our base tariff rate with them at 10%. Vietnam and the U.S. came to a deal in which the base tariff rate would be 20 % for goods that come from Vietnam, but a higher rate for goods that are from China that then get routed through Vietnam. Speaking of which, China, when the 90-day pause on tariffs was implemented, all tariffs were set at a baseline of 10%, with the exception of China, which was set at a baseline of 145%.

13:19But then later in May, as the result of negotiations, that tariff on China, which also applies to Macau and Hong Kong, was temporarily reduced down to 30%. Because tariffs on China are so onerous, many Chinese goods do get routed through other countries. They route through Vietnam, they route through Mexico. And that is one of the issues that these rounds of negotiations are intended to solve. Our deal with Vietnam being a prime example. That said, there were a number of countries that did not reach deals in either May or June. And many of those nations now will be receiving letters, which will be sent today, informing them of what the new base tariff rate will be.

14:01And the reason I say base tariff is because these are tariffs that are applied flatly to any good that flows out of that particular country, regardless of what type of good it is. That's notable because remember, when we talk about tariffs, it's actually historically speaking, back to a history lesson again, historically speaking, it is unusual to impose tariffs based on country. Historically speaking, tariffs have typically been imposed based on industry rather than based on national origin. And so there are tariffs that continue to be industry-specific. So, for example, there are currently tariffs on steel and aluminum.

14:42Those are industry-specific. There are tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts. Of course, those are also industry-specific. So historically, tariffs have been used to protect certain industries. Those tariffs will still be kept in place, but when we talk about now tariffs based on source country, those will have a base rate that will be added to any industry-specific tariff rate. I mentioned steel, aluminum, automobiles, and automobile parts as tariffs that currently exist, but I want to draw attention to four sectors specifically that are right now temporarily exempted from tariffs, but which may see tariffs in the near future.

15:23Those four sectors are pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and lumber. Although there's a temporary exemption right now, those sectors are highly likely to have tariffs imposed in the near future, which may potentially exceed 25%. Remember, that's on top of the base tariffs that are imposed based on country of origin. All of that is to say, given that this 90-day pause is expiring on July 9th, you can expect July to be tariff month in the new cycle. You can also expect many changes to be announced, many deals to be made. You can expect a lot of movement and frequent updates in this domain in the upcoming month.

16:06And that leads to the question, what impact is all of that going to have on American businesses? In order to answer that question, we need to take a look at the current state of businesses in the U.S., starting with the jobs report. And I want to actually peel back behind the headlines because headlines can be a little misleading. So I want to unpack the headline numbers to really look at what's going on in the jobs report right now because of the 4th of July, the jobs report came out one day early. Normally it's released on the first Friday of every month, but since the first Friday was 4th of July, it was released on Thursday.

16:42with that additional 24 hours to really unpack it, there's a lot in the jobs report, the June jobs report, which came out yesterday, that goes beyond the surface. There's a lot that doesn't initially meet the eye. We're going to take a break right now to hear from the sponsors who make this show possible. And when we come back, we're going to really unpack what's going on when it comes to business growth, jobs, unemployment, what's happening in our economy today. I've said this in previous episodes. If you want to understand the economy, don't look at the stock market. Look at the jobs report and look at the bond market.

17:18Those are the two indicators, much, much more so than the stock market, that provide a really good level of insight into what's happening in the economy today. So let's hear from our sponsors and then let's unpack the jobs report.

17:37The kids are back in school now and I finally have some extra time to plan a weekend getaway for just us. We've been wanting to visit Lancaster County, Pennsylvania for a while now because I've heard so many people rave about it. We love exploring new places, finding the cutest shops and eating at restaurants that the locals love. DiscoverLancaster.com is the best place to learn about the unique things to do and upcoming events. Plan your trip alongside us at discoverlankaster.com slash amplified. I want to shout out to all the small business owners out there. You wear a million hats. You're doing a lot of things and you show up for your team every single day.

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18:50So you save lots of time, you get direct access to certified HR experts, and it's quick and simple to switch. I've been using Gusto since 2017 or 18. It's been a long time. I remember I was living in Las Vegas at the time and I brought on my first team member, a woman by the name of Erin, who ended up working with us for six years. That was when I got on Gusto and I'm still there today. Try Gusto today at gusto.com slash Paula and get three months free when you run your first payroll. That's three months of free payroll at gusto.com slash Paula. One more time, gusto.com slash Paula, G-U-S-T-O dot com slash P-A-U-L-A.

19:32This Friday, the NBA on Prime tips off with their debut doubleheader. First up, Boston brings the action to the Garden as the Celtics face the New York Knicks. Then out west, it's a battle of the superpowers as the Lakers try to poster the relentless pace of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Celtics and Knicks, who has the most hustle in defense? This game will come down to who wants it more. And the Timberwolves and the Lakers. It's two Western Conference heavyweights going toe-to-toe. Buckle up, folks. This one's going to be electric. Celtics-Knicks. T-Wolves and Lakers. Coverage starts Friday, 7 o 'clock Eastern, only on Prime.

20:24Welcome back. Last month's jobs report was stronger than expected. The U.S. added 147 ,000 new jobs in June, and the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, which is normal. Normal relative to the past few years. Historically, if you look at a 50-year view or a 100-year view, historically, very, very low. So our unemployment rate, which for years now has been at historic lows, continues to be so. This is actually better than expected. economists had expected to see only 110 ,000 new jobs added, and they had expected to see the unemployment rate at 4.3%. So the stock market rose yesterday after a better-than-expected jobs report came out.

21:10But that said, let's look beyond the headlines. Let's unpack this a little bit, because a lot of that new job growth has been driven by government jobs, specifically state and local government. Job growth in the private sector, which was reported a couple days in advance by ADP, which is a payroll processor, private sector job growth was negative. On Wednesday, ADP reported that overall private sector employment declined by 33 ,000 jobs in June as compared to the May numbers. The bulk of that came from small businesses. So that was driven by a loss of 47 ,000 jobs from employers that have fewer than 50 employees.

21:55That reflects a broader trend that we've seen throughout this year of things being particularly hard for small business. So far in 2025, small companies, defined as companies with 50 or fewer employees, have added on average only 5 ,300 jobs per month. And that's nearly an order of magnitude less than last year's average, which was 40 ,000 new jobs per month. Private sector businesses generally, but particularly private sector small business, is really struggling. And the reason that the headline numbers look good in the jobs report is because state and local governments are hiring. That's a trend that we've seen in the jobs report for many months.

22:40We've also seen specifically in health care, health care in addition to small and local governments, health care has added a lot of they've consistently been a leader in job growth. And that continues to be the case. Now, let me pause here and draw a distinction between the two types of reports that we're contrasting right now, because the jobs report is put out by the Labor Department. That's the new report that gets released on the first Friday of every month. ADP, by contrast, is a payroll processor. So they don't see public sector jobs. They only see private sector jobs. And they always put out a report two days prior to the first Friday of the month.

23:21So the Wednesday prior to the first Friday is when they put out their monthly report, which means people like myself, you know, people who like avidly look for the first Friday jobs report, we always look at the ADP report as a sneak peek, as like a clue 48 hours in advance as to what we're going to see. But noting the differences between the ADP report, which is private sector only versus the jobs report, which is the entire economy, there's a story there, right? Because there are some months when the ADP report and the jobs report mirror each other. And that's not what's happening right now.

24:02In fact, right now, these two reports are telling very different stories. The jobs report from the labor department is telling the story of growth. The jobs report is saying we added 147 ,000 new jobs. The ADP report is telling the opposite story. The ADP report is saying we lost 33 ,000 jobs, right? I'm going to highlight that again. Jobs report is saying we gained. ADP report is saying we lost. That's the difference between looking at just the private sector in isolation versus looking at the private and public sectors combined. And what that means is that the private sector is struggling. This job loss that ADP reported on Wednesday, this is the first pullback since March of 2023.

24:51This is the worst it's been in over two years. And in the private sector, there are notable job losses in the category of professional and business services and notable job losses specifically in small businesses. And so this shows that businesses are holding back on hiring amid all of this economic uncertainty. And for the moment, job growth at the state and local government level is strong enough that it compensates for that in the aggregate. But given that so much of the job growth is government jobs, that shows that the job market is weaker than it looks. It's a relatively stagnant market.

25:28And even though unemployment is low, turnover is also low. People who have jobs tend to be keeping them, but people who want jobs are having a tougher time finding work. So recent high school and college grads, people who are back on the job hunt after an absence, people who have been fired or laid off, which is now an increasing number of small business employees, are having a tougher time finding jobs. And that, you know, beyond the headlines, is the nuance of what's happening within the jobs market. And so it's no wonder that consumer confidence continues to be low. According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which is one of the nation's leading consumer confidence trackers.

26:13We did see some minor gains in the month of June, but overall consumer sentiment is 18 % lower than it was in December of last year. And overall, consumer views are, quote, broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, But at this time, they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy. End quote. Inflation expectations that are held by consumers are lower than they used to be, but still high. So consumers last the previous month in May expected that year ahead inflation would be 6.6%.

27:00As of June, that expectation fell to only 5%. The story that those numbers tell is that people a couple months ago used to be more pessimistic, and now they're feeling better, but overall they're still feeling bad. And as compared to what people felt six months ago in December, right around New Year's, people are generally feeling worse. The University of Michigan issued a special report on June 27 that compares current versus pre-pandemic long-run inflation expectations. The report shows that people's expectation of inflation right now is matching the mid-2022 peak. So the report says, quote, expectations were stable in the years leading into the pandemic.

27:48They worsened through mid-2022 and softened thereafter through October 2024. And then it says a few more things. And then it says, quote, June's median now matches the peak reading from mid 2022. But the three month moving average remains above mid 2022. End quote. So what that's saying is that people have been anxious about the economy and particularly about inflation since the pandemic, so for five years. And where we are now is at about the same place where we were three years ago in terms of our worries about inflation. That is to say that in the last three years, the average consumer's worries about inflation have not gotten any better.