Q&A: The Scary Shift from Saving to — Gulp! — Actually Spending Your Money

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29:33Welcome back. Hey, Joe, did you know that the only two states that have ever gone to war with each other are Michigan and Ohio? Over Toledo. Over Toledo. We went to war over Toledo and we won. Yes, but as compensation, you know what Michigan got? The Upper Peninsula? The whole Upper Peninsula. Yeah. So, yes, you got Toledo, Paula. Good for you. Yeah, we got Toledo. Ohio won the war. Toledo's fantastic, but I will take all of that land, all of that fantastic land. No offense to Toledo. Love me some Mud Hens baseball. Well, our next caller is moving from Michigan to Ohio, which I endorse. And I don't.

30:19Our next call comes from Anonymous. Hi, Paul and Joe. Thanks for the podcast. I'm going to remain anonymous because I kind of like it when you give people names. It's fun. I'm going to caveat this question by saying that I really should have taken the Your First Rental Property class. I missed the signup deadline. It was a mistake. And now my question is basically going to be straight out of that class. And I'm hoping you'll grace me with your expertise. And I promise you, I'll look for the signup and I'll sign up next time. Big picture, my wife got a job in Cleveland. We're thrilled. And we're going to move from Michigan to Cleveland.

30:52And we have to decide, should we sell our house or should we convert the house into a rental property? I think if we were to sell, we would break even, no net gain to our net worth, no net loss. but I've been kind of wanting to dip my toe into the rental game for a while. And it strikes me as a good opportunity to maybe do this and learn and grow from the experience. Although granted, I could also just do that in Cleveland. So there's that caveat as well. To give you a few numbers to help you get a sense of where we're at, our mortgage is 4.875%. It's a seven-year arm and it readjusts on June 1, 2030.

31:28We were$0 down. Oh, and I should say that that readjustment would be the one-year treasury rate plus 2.75 % up to a maximum of 9.875%. I said we were$0 down. And at the time that we would sell the place or turn it into a rental property, our outstanding loan would be about 421 ,000. Now I've created an Excel sheet and like tried to fiddle around with this. And I have all sorts of assumptions, right? I've got like a 1 % repair cost assumption and a 4.2 % vacancy assumption and all this sort of thing. But any which way I slice and dice it, it really works out that we're probably going to have a cashflow negative situation here, anywhere from 5K a year to 15K a year.

32:10So if we were to turn it into a rental property without doing anything else, we would probably need to make it up in appreciation if this were to be a positive investment for us. Now, granted, the other option that I've given some thought to is selling some equities in order to recast. We have about$105 ,000 in cash,$520 ,000 in tax advantage accounts, and$578 ,000 in taxable accounts, and we have no debt. So that's an option, and I've given it some consideration. I think if I did that, it really would work out to this place would be cash flow positive if I were to pay down like$200 ,000 in the mortgage, for example.

32:49But I'm nervous about that for a few reasons, primarily two. Number one is I don't like capital gains taxes, and I haven't really looked into how to optimize that. And then the second reason is my wife and I just hit our coast fire number with our invested equities, and I really like that. So I want to kind of leave it where it is, although I also wonder if maybe I'm missing an opportunity here. So I'm curious what you think. Anonymous, thank you for the question. Before I answer it, we've got to give you a name. And Joe, I've got the perfect one. Oh, you must. Because Anonymous is moving to Cleveland, I thought it would be perfect to name him after General Moses Cleveland, the namesake of Cleveland, Ohio.

33:35General Moses Cleveland led the surveyors who established the city in 1796. So, Anonymous, your name will be? Moses. Moses. How about that? I did not know that. Yeah. I did not know where that name came from. You know, I didn't know either. I assumed actually that it was probably after Grover Cleveland, but. Oh, it would have been around the way before Grover. Yeah. And it would be, you know, we've never named a caller Grover. No, but that'd be fun. That'd be the Sesame Street. Yeah, that would be fun. Yeah. It's funny. I wouldn't think president at all. So Anonymous, next time you call in, we're calling you Grover.

34:11But I will say, Ohio is known as the mother of presidents because seven U.S. presidents were born there. Grover Cleveland is not one of them. Is that a brag? Are you bragging now about how many presidents born in Ohio? We have produced more presidents than any other U.S. state. Michigan produced Derek Jeter. We produced Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Harrison, McKinley, Taft, Harding, and we're claiming William Henry Harrison. Although, what is that disputed? Well. Is there the great Harrison dispute? Yeah. He was born in Virginia, but he settled in Ohio. So we're claiming him as well. Gotcha. Well, so what does he do?

34:48Does he keep it? Does he rent it out? Moses, of everything you suggested, I'll tell you the idea that I like the least. The idea that I like the least is selling off some of your stock investments, selling off some of your equities in order to pay down the mortgage. But I dislike that idea. And I could tell from your question, you also dislike that idea. but I think we dislike that idea for different reasons. You mentioned that you dislike that idea because the capital gains tax would be cumbersome. That's not my reason. I get why you would think that way, but that's not my reason for disliking it.

35:26And the reason for that is because I don't want to let the tax tail wag the decision dog. Meaning if selling those equities was the right thing to do, then even if you had to take a tax hit, pay some capital gains taxes, If it's the right thing to do, then it's the right thing to do. But in this case, it's not. In this case, selling those equities, I believe, is the wrong thing to do. And the reason for that is twofold. Number one, it's clear that you and your wife had a goal of reaching CoastFi. No one reaches CoastFi accidentally, unless you're very, very lucky. People who reach CoastFi have been working towards that for a while.

36:02So building that equities portfolio that you have is something done by design. That's something done with intentionality. Now that you've achieved that, I don't like the idea of undoing that. You had a goal. You achieved the goal. Let's celebrate that win. That's one of the reasons I don't like the idea of selling the equities. The other reason is because putting more cash towards a property in order to get it to perform distorts the performance of the property itself. And here's what I mean by that. Hypothetically, if you had unlimited money and you could buy a bunch of properties in cash, it would be pretty easy to build a cash flowing rental portfolio.

36:43But that doesn't necessarily mean that you would have a great underlying selection of homes. It just means that you have a big bucket of cash. And when you're purchasing properties in cash, it's easy to make those properties cash flow. By contrast, let's imagine an extreme opposite end. Let's say that you had to borrow at a 25 % interest rate on properties. Well, pretty much every property on the planet is going to look terrible under that set of conditions. So financing distorts our perception of whether or not a given property is a good underlying investment because if the financing was 0 % or if it was non-existent, a lot of things are going to look good.

37:32If the financing was 25%, a lot of things are going to look bad. And neither of those give you any type of answer about the underlying quality of the asset itself. And that's what we want to evaluate first and foremost. If you look at stocks as an analogy to real estate. Let's say that you were in the business of selecting individual stocks, Tesla, Coca-Cola, Nike. You would never select those stocks based on the amount of margin that was available to you. You would select those stocks based on their own intrinsic fundamental qualities. And then if you wanted to use margin to leverage further into that bet, well, I would tell you not to, but there are people who do that.

38:16But it isn't the margin itself that makes the purchase good or bad, putting air quotes around good or bad. It isn't the margin itself that makes it a viable investment. It's the intrinsic qualities of the asset. And so that's what we want to answer when we're looking at this home that you own. And the way that we do that, the way that we figure out, is this home that you own worth holding onto is by understanding what the unleveraged total return would be. And so here's how you calculate the unleveraged total return. Start with the purchase price of the property, the price that you yourself actually paid for it.

38:57Add to that any upfront repairs that were required for you to be able to inhabit the property, which for most owner-occupants, there typically are not any. Generally speaking, owner-occupants, retail homebuyers tend to buy properties that are move-in ready. But if that assumption does not hold true for you, if you bought something that was an uninhabitable fixer-upper, then take that purchase price plus upfront repairs and those two factors together are your total acquisition cost. Now you're going to hold that number in your back pocket and then you're going to take a look at what the monthly rent is and multiply that by 12 to get your potential gross annual rent.

39:39Now that is theoretically what you would collect from that home if it had 100 % occupancy. And obviously it's never going to have 100 % occupancy, but roll with me for this calculation. So you calculate your annual rent at 100 % occupancy. Then you add in annually any other fees that you could collect from this property, parking fees, pet fees, storage, laundry, any other supplemental income that the property can generate. Add that all in. That number is your potential gross rent. Once you have your potential gross rent, you then make an adjustment for vacancies. So you subtract that out. And what you are left with after making a reasonable vacancy estimate is a different number that's called your effective gross rent.

40:26So potential gross rent minus vacancy adjustment is effective gross rent, then you add in any other income. So when you add in other income, that's pet fees, laundry fees, storage, parking fees, any supplemental income that that property can generate. You add that other income to your effective gross rent, and then that together turns into a number that's referred to as your gross operating income. So now that you have your gross operating income, the next step is to subtract out operating overhead. Now, remember, operating overhead does not include financing costs. It includes expenses associated with running the property, such as utilities, water, trash, repairs, property management, maintenance, but it does not include the debt servicing, so the principal and interest portion on the mortgage.

41:21It does include homeowner's insurance and property taxes. You've got your gross operating income minus your operating overhead equals your net operating income. Now, that net operating income divided by the total acquisition price of the property, which remember is the purchase price plus any upfront repairs needed to get it ready for its first inhabitants, which were you and your spouse, that net operating income divided by the total acquisition price, that's going to give you a percentage which represents the cap rate on the property, which is functionally the unleveraged dividend that you're collecting from the property.

42:02So take that cap rate and then add to it some reasonable appreciation assumption. Home prices nationwide over the past 40 years have appreciated at around a 5 % rate, but of course your mileage may vary depending on your specific location. But add that cap rate to some reasonable appreciation estimate. And the number that you have now created is your unleveraged total return. And I want to know what that number is, because that's how you assess the property itself, independent of any financing. And once we've done that, you can take a look at that property. What is the unleveraged total return on that property?

42:48And then ask yourself, is this even worth holding? Often, not always, but often, if you've selected a property for the sake of it being a primary residence, usually it's not because the decisions that go into purchasing a primary residence are very different than the decisions that go into buying an investment property. You're looking for a separate set of characteristics, but sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes it is. But what I want to know first and foremost is what's the cap rate on that property? And subsequently, what is the total unleveraged return on that property? And that's going to tell me a lot.

43:26It's interesting to me how no matter what investment you're using, there's a couple go-to analytics that you will explore, right? And cap rate comes up again and again and again when it comes to investment property. Yeah. Now, I will say, generally speaking, I don't like things being negatively geared or negatively cash flowed simply because there's a limit to how many of those you can acquire. Sure, right. But I also understand that he's interested in potentially regarding this first one as a learning experience so that he can learn the ropes around out-of-state management, which is a very, very valuable life skill.

44:06In addition to that, there are certainly years, There are certainly temporary periods where properties become negatively geared because you're doing big repairs on them or you're doing a lot of capex. Every long-term landlord has had their negative cash flow years. That's like any type of entrepreneurship. That's par for the course. In this case, it's different because his negative cash flow would not be the result of major capital expenditures. It would be the result of the rent simply not being high enough to keep up with the basic bills. But given that he already owns the property and there are major transaction costs associated with selling the property, if he has a reasonable expectation that rental rates for that property are likely going to increase significantly in the coming years, maybe it's an area where there's huge population growth and there's insufficient new construction to keep up with that population growth.

45:04So if it's an area where he has a reasonable expectation that that rent is going to rise pretty rapidly, well, sure, then it's worth holding on to the property because in two or three years, the rents will likely have risen so much that it will no longer be cash flow negative. So that's why all real estate is local. And that's why any analysis of a property needs to include not just one set of assumptions, but a range of possibilities, including what's the bottom and the top of the range of what it might rent for now. And then what's the bottom and the top of the range of any rental increases that you anticipate in the next one, two, three years.

45:46And when we put all of that together, we arrive at a much more comprehensive look. at what kind of returns he can expect from this particular asset. It pains me to say this, that I love Cleveland. Really? I do. My sister lives in Cleveland. Wow. Yes. And every time I visit there, we have a nice Stacking Benjamins community that gets together when I go there. So we had a couple of meetups last year and super nice people in Cleveland. I like the downtown. I like the Playhouse District. It is so annoying how much I like that town. Ah, Joe, I didn't expect to hear you say something nice about Ohio.

46:25I know. It absolutely sucks. Ah, well, I love Michigan as well. It's a beautiful state. Traverse City, Mackinac Island, Ann Arbor. There are so many just really fun places. You had me until you said Ann Arbor, and then you lost me. Ah, oh, that's right. You're a Spartan. Yes. Now, East Lansing, very beautiful. What about Kalamazoo? Kalamazoo is where I grew up. Oh, nice. So Kalamazoo is badass. Western Michigan University. Yeah. Yeah. Go Broncos. Good stuff. Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids. Nice. Just there's that pit around Ann Arbor. And actually, it pains me to say this too, but that's also, you're right, a beautiful town.

47:10It is. It's a great town. I got to go wash. Well, Moses, enjoy your move to Cleveland. and congratulations. As Drew Carey says, Cleveland rocks. Our final question today is around one of my favorite topics, which is Roth IRAs. That's coming up next. I want to shout out to all the small business owners out there. You wear a million hats. You're doing a lot of things and you show up for your team every single day. Gusto can help you take some of that load off, especially when it comes to payroll, benefits, and compliance. Gusto is online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses. It's all-in-one, remote-friendly, and incredibly easy to use.

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49:59Our final question today comes from John. I am John from Philadelphia. I have heard every podcast. I learn from them all. I especially enjoy the deep interaction between Joe and Paula on Caller's Question that provokes my own thinking. I listened to several episodes on the pros and cons of traditional versus Roth IRAs. Joe is usually big on flexibility such as bucket options and time. I was surprised that neither one of you, especially Joe, did not espouse on the Roth advantage to continuing time in near perpetuity versus the trad, which comes to an abrupt drawdown beginning on the established day of reckoning as RMDs or required minimum distributions are reined in.

50:47I converted my traditional to a Roth in 1997. I retired five years ago in 2020. I have well over a million in just my Roth that I've never touched nor have a foreseeable need to touch as I near the age of 72. With my Roth, I can continue to let it run for years and decades, all growing tax-free. If I would have left it as a trad investment, the tax-free would all come to an unceremonious end about now with a piper to be paid. Is this not a significant Roth advantage for those who can extend the tax-free growth to even multiples? Or am I missing something? John, that is a fantastic question. You are spot on.

51:34It is absolutely one of the many, many, many reasons that we love the Roth. My favorite line around this, and John, I apologize. Maybe, Paula, I haven't said this on Afford Anything, but when we talked about the Roth on Stacking Benjamins, John, you nailed it. The fact that you are not sharing any of this growth, you're paying the tax once and you never pay it again. One of my favorite lines on this comes from Ed Slott, who's the IRA expert. Ed says, the cool thing is, Paula, you don't have to share any of it, any of the growth on a Roth with your uncle in Washington ever again. And then he always leans into the mic and Ed goes, and he's not even your real uncle.

52:16Well, but it's not just that. It's also that you are not going to be required to tap it whether you want to or not. Yeah, I love the idea of not having to interrupt your strategy. Whatever your investment strategy is, when you've got to make that withdrawal, you've got to interrupt it, move it out, and then redeploy it. And often mistakes get made then, the strategy changes, you start doubting yourself. So even behaviorally, the Roth in the spot where John's at is wonderful. Well, and RMDs are annoying when you don't want to make them. When you're making an RMD just for the sake of obeying some arbitrary rule.

52:56Can I also say just the fact that he had the foresight in the late 1990s. Right. To convert it all. I was thinking that too. Yeah. Just take the plunge and do it, John. Holy moly. Not the first word I was thinking was moly, but it's just. As in guacamole. Holy guacamole. Holy guac is just fantastic. That is some foresight. Yeah. That is a move that's paid huge dividends, John. Absolutely. Because in the late 1990s, no one was really talking about the Roth. Not that much. And if they were, it was, hey, you want to put a little there. You want to dabble in this thing. Right. Because the thing that was uncertain as a fairly new way to invest is, is the government going to keep this available?

53:46So the fact that he locked it in, trusting that at the very least, he'd get grandfathered on those contributions was some foresight. But then the fact that that law hasn't changed and really we've seen the government double down on the Roth over time and it's really become a cornerstone of a lot of people's investment strategy has been wonderful to John and anybody who did it. Right. Well, actually, so I just looked it up. So the Roth IRA was created in 1997. Right away. Just jumped on it. Yeah. So he did it in the same year that the Roth IRA was created. It was introduced as part of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997.

54:25I remember even so many pros then that were doubting the Roth and going, do you think the government's really never going to tax this again? They're going to change it. In fact, I've talked openly on this show, Paula, about a woman who helped me get my financial act together when I was surrounding myself with better people. A woman named Sue, who is a CPA, my CPA, was like, I don't know if I would go full-fledged into that Roth. Like Sue, brilliant human being, even the good pros doubting it back when John said, nope, jump in with both feet. Yeah, that's absolutely fantastic. So I have nothing else there but to high five you, John, and go.

55:01Fantastic work. Another reason why bias toward the Roth said very succinctly by you. Since John brings up freedom from RMDs as one of the many benefits of a Roth, I do want to take this moment to elaborate on that for the sake of everyone who's listening. Because, John, I'm sure you already know this, but if anyone inherits a Roth, then you may need to take annual RMDs on that inherited Roth. So while the original owner of a Roth IRA is alive, you have total freedom from RMDs, but your beneficiaries will have to take RMDs. Unfortunately, it can't continue to remain a Roth account in infinite perpetuity.

55:47If you have an inherited Roth IRA, the amount of RMD that you will have to take is going to vary depending on a lot of factors, including the age of the original owner and the number of beneficiaries. So it's going to be a complicated equation for which you're going to need a financial professional. But it is good to know that you have an account in which as the original owner, you are not mandated to take any money out of that account if you don't want to. Which gets back to the flexibility that John was talking about that I like. Yeah. I can choose when, where, and how. Well, Joe, I think we've done it again.

56:24We did. It was so fun. It was fantastic. Joe, what are you working on these days? We just released a week ago, great interview with Barry Ritzholz, who of course is the top person at Ritzholz Wealth Management, where our friend Nick Majuli works. And downtown Josh Brown from CNBC fame is a partner there. Many more people, Ben Carlson, this guy, Barry, attracts so much talent. And what we did the week before, we did a deep dive on Wednesday the 19th on Barry's strategies. And then the following Monday, we interview him. So if you want to hear a nice one-two punch about everything Barry Ritholtz that we could possibly dig up, all the investing goodness behind this guy so many people respect, listen to the Wednesday, March 19th episode, and then follow it down with the interview with the man himself the following Monday.

57:21Oh, wonderful. And Barry Ritholtz and what he has created, Ritholtz Wealth Management is in New York City, I can state as a local, very well-known. Very, yeah. Incredibly well-known. The Ritholtz name commands a lot of respect. He has maybe the number one financial conference for advisors in the nation as well, where when people are wondering what the future of financial advising is, they go to Barry's conference because he is very much the voice of reason in the community. What I love about Barry is he cautions you about all the junk, Paula, all the junk that Wall Street firms create, all the junk people listen to.

58:04And the fact that I love his basic premise, nobody knows anything. That is his basic premise. And when you give up the fact that you might know something, that's when you become a really good investor. When you let go not only of being right, but of even having any idea in the first place. It's so powerful. You're buying something and you go, yeah, I don't know. So Barry and I, we talk a lot about all the gurus over the ages who have been wrong. Michael Burry is one person we talk about who called the big short, right? The 2007, 2008 stuff. Michael Burry hasn't called anything since then. He's called so many things.

58:45We also have a good time talking about the man, the myth, the junk that is Robert Kiyosaki. And one of the guys in Barry's firm, Barry relates his story is that it's not rich dad, poor dad. It's rich Robert, poor reader. is what one of the people that people talk about. Barry has no problem with calling out BS and Robert Kiyosaki has had a ton of BS. Yeah, I will say it's unfortunate because the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad was fantastic. The sequel to it, Cashflow Quadrant, also fantastic. I love both of the books, but unfortunately, Robert Kiyosaki since then has taken a turn. And now... Yeah. And the bad news, Paula, is that I even have interviewed his co-author, Sharon Lecter.

59:37And when you hear about what Sharon says about Robert, you understand why that book was good. And my personal feeling is it might have had more to do with Sharon than it had to do with Robert. Because to your point, Robert left to his own devices since then has been pretty... What was that, Joe? You like the sound effect? That's a great sound effect. You're like, wait, what? What? When he talks, you're like, huh? Where do you get that? Yeah. And I should say, we're not gratuitously trash talking him, but we do want to warn this community. If you ever hear interviews with him, It's sad to say because I really did love the books, but as a public service, you all should know that despite the fact that he wrote, or at least his name is authored on some great books, if you hear any interviews with him, be very cautious about what Robert Kiyosaki talks about.

1:00:34And that is specifically, I think, Barry's point in this interview is think about what people are really selling. What is Robert really selling right now? Now, when you start digging into that, you understand really some of the method behind that madness. And then you really have to ask yourself, do I want to follow this person on social media? Do I want to attend their stuff? Do I want to, am I buying what they're selling? And Barry really parses between being a good investor, being somebody that just blindly follows some strategy, which may or may not be in your best interest. Right. It's also, by the way, the first interview I've ever done.

1:01:11I've ever done. where the second I meet this man, I'd never met Barry before. The second I meet him, I immediately love him, which is why, of course, he attracts so many. I'm sure I'm not the first person to say that, right? That he and I hit it off. I get the feeling he hits it off with everybody, Paula. But literally, we just get into it. And I go and I hit record. And then I realize, and I tell our mutual editor, Steve, I'm like, I just need you to fade into this interview. and what you'll hear is that I had to fade into the interview because we just got going. And then I stopped and I go, Barry, I was going to start the interview, but I think we already began because a couple of money geeks sitting and talking about this stuff that we're so passionate about.

1:01:52I've never had an interview where I've just rolled into it, but that's the kind of man Barry is, which is, I think why so many people are attracted to him. He just is very, very excited about the topic of personal finance and good financial planning. Well, I look forward to listening to that interview, Joe. Thank you. And I am heading to Panama next week. So, but there will still be fresh episodes. Panama. Yeah, I'll be there for two weeks. I'm going to do episode 600 is coming up. So episode 600 is going to be the one that I record from Panama. Wow. I can hear that introduction live from Panama.

1:02:35Yeah. You know, I was thinking that except it's not going to be live. It's going to be pre-recorded. So it's going to be pre-recorded from Panama. From Panama. Doesn't have the same ring to it. Still really cool. Very cool, but not the same ring. Yeah, so all of that is on the docket. So make sure that you are following both of our shows in your favorite podcast playing app so that you don't miss any of these amazing episodes. Thank you so much for tuning in. This is the Afford Anything Podcast. I'm Paula Pant. I'm Joe Salcihai. And we will meet you in the next episode.