Q&A: Why Your Retirement Math Isn’t Adding Up

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30:28Welcome back. Our next question comes from Jesse. Hi, Paula. Thanks for a great episode with Paul Merriman on diversifying your portfolio to increase your gains. I wanted to ask, I noticed that his recommendations tended to lean towards diversifying with value stocks rather than diversifying with growth index funds. And I I wanted to ask if there would be similar findings if you were diversifying with growth-focused index funds, or if his findings suggest that value funds would be more productive for most everyday investors to diversify with. Thanks for everything you do. jesse thank you for the question so fundamentally the question is why why value why not growth and you're tapping into an age-old debate in the investing world so historically there were two famous investors one was named benjamin graham and the other was named philip fisher benjamin graham is known as the father of value investing philip fisher was the father of growth investing.

31:53Ironically, Philip Fisher's son is a value investor. Of course. Yeah, exactly. Because every time dad talked, he rolled his eyes. That's why. Dad. Warren Buffett has said that his investing philosophy is a mashup between Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher, but it's not a 50-50 mashup. Warren Buffett has said that his investing philosophy is 85 % Benjamin Graham, 15 % Philip Fisher. So his investing philosophy is basically 85 % value, 15 % growth. And the part of Philip Fisher that he says he likes a lot is Philip Fisher's penchant for diving in and learning every single little thing he can learn about the company.

32:38It is less to do with the growth part, Paula, than the piece of Fisher's investment philosophy that before I invest in an individual company, I'm going to know the heartbeat 100 % of what that company does, which is why Warren Buffett, you and me trying to be like you and I, we all agree. That's why the average investor, one of many reasons why the average investor should just buy indexes because doing it the Fisher way requires lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of diving in deep. Right. Yeah. Like enormous due diligence to the point where it's your obsession. It's not just your full-time work.

33:16It's your obsession. Exactly. So what we've seen and what Paul Merriman shows in his research is that historically, value-oriented investments tend to do better over the long term. That being said, there is that space, that Philip Fisher philosophy, there is that space for growth, but it's harder to succeed in a growth environment, particularly for the average investor who isn't doing this full time. Yeah. And the reason depends on the size company that we're looking at. Overall, it's funny, growth and value over long periods of time, if you look at the S &P growth index versus the S &P value index over long, long, long periods of time, the growth index to your point, Paula, slightly below the value index, but not by a ton.

34:03The bigger reason why Merriman's research and a lot of people's research will land in the large company side on value is because we don't know when you're getting off the train. And because we don't know when you're getting off the train, it is easier and more probable that value is not going to suck at the time that you need to sell it. Growth funds over short periods of times will have phenomenal spikes because when you're a growth investor, you're going to ignore some of the information that a value investor really is interested in. A value investor wants to make sure that the pieces of the company are special, equal a deal.

34:52Like I can buy this company and I'm going to get stuff that's on sale. That's what they're looking for. A growth investor just wonders if they're going to take over the world. If a value investor is wrong, maybe it's not a deal now. Maybe it's just fairly market valued. Or maybe just a little bit on the oops side. Where a growth investor, if I think a company is going to take over the world and they don't. Like the downside right now, if we find out that insiders at the top of Nvidia have been embezzling money or cooking the books and nobody knew it, that's 100 % a growth company. There is no value there.

35:36It's all growth. If somebody pops that bubble, the downside is huge. Right. It's absolutely huge. Right. So that's why on the large company side, Merriman goes with value because when you go to sell it, there's not as much of a roller coaster ride as there is in growth. Now, if you're there for 50 years, you're going to probably be great with growth. If you're there for 10 years, growth is either going to be way ahead or way behind value stocks on the large side. It's actually different though, Paula, with small companies. We get to small companies. It's a whole different rationale why we go with value versus growth.

36:12Oh, tell me why. Well, because when a company is small, a company is either undiscovered or discovered. And actually, a small company value stock is usually going to be a value stock because the masses haven't discovered the genius of what this company does yet. If it's a little tiny company and it's value-oriented, value-oriented small companies tend to get the biggest pop of anybody in the market. Because all of a sudden they go, oh, I had no idea that this company was as cool as it is. And when it is, small value often graduates to large growth. Small growth is problematic because everybody expects this company to be a hot company and they're still small.

36:58And so the growth investors try to get in there early. And a lot of these companies don't do as well. So small growth is super risky, small value. If I've got a hundred companies or 500 companies that I'm underpaying for 500, the chance that three or four of these are going to be 10 years from now, the next hot thing, I'm going to find a few. And by the way, I can miss on a lot of underpriced tiny company stocks and get that one big hit or two or three big hits. Those cure a lot of the mistakes that I made in picking. So small value, we're actually looking for the next hot growth stock. Large value, we're actually not trying to make a mistake and when we get off the train.

37:44And that makes sense, just intuitively that makes sense because one of the fastest ways to kill a small company is to force it to grow too quickly. Right. Feed it a bunch of cash. I have many, many friends. They're entrepreneurs with small companies that have outside funding. The problem with outside funding, the problem with other investors coming in is that they are expecting a growth multiple that is very hard to sustain. And so what happens is you take on more and more risk. You hire faster and really kind of before you're ready. You don't have the processes in place. You're building the plane as you're flying it.

38:24And to an extent, every small business is always building the plane as you're flying it. But if you are undiscovered, and you can move at a slower pace, and you can figure out how to build the plane as you're flying it, every small company is building the machine as they go. but it's nice to have the time to do it properly so that you can really, here's where I'm mixing metaphors, so you can cement that foundation before you build to that next level. If you can't quite get a stable foundation and you're already building the next level, and then you just keep Jenga towering new levels on top of shaky, shaky foundation, eventually that whole Jenga tower falls apart.

39:06We can actually look at, Paula, a couple case studies that I think a lot of our Ford Anything audience knows in this case, companies that have survived but are vastly different than they were when they started. And it was because they had this huge speed bump when it came to growing too quickly. SoFi, I think, is a company that a lot of people in the audience knows. You look at the SoFi management team, it's 100 % different people than started that company. And part of that was they had this massive growth. They ended up having a lot of scandal inside the company. And that company nearly got wiped off the planet.

39:41Luckily, they were able to turn it around. Away Luggage is another company that had big time growth problems. They had huge problems. Oh my goodness. Away. I love their product. So it made me very, very sad to hear about what was happening in the company. Their product is incredible. But growing too quickly in both of those companies, it changed the corporate culture because they hired a ton of people very quickly and didn't have a lot of the oversight, the systems, the ability to deal with the massive changes happening inside the company with all these new hires and just a mess. And luckily, both of them are still around, especially for Away, because I like that luggage too.

40:22I think those are a couple of case studies about exactly, Paula, what you're talking about. Right, exactly. And Joe, I think you raised an important point when you said that today's small cap value often become tomorrow's large cap growth. Yeah. Big difference why Merriman would go with small cap value than with large cap value. I've been pointing to Paul Merriman a lot lately. This isn't Paul Merriman making stuff up and he's not like Gandalf, the wizard of investing, who's magically picking these allocations. He's just a guy that's done a lot of research. Yeah. He's done a ton of research. I don't point people toward Paul Merriman's research because of the fact that he's a whiz kid guru on where the market's headed tomorrow.

41:12If you ask Paul Merriman where the market's headed tomorrow, he will tell you, don't know, don't care. That is not his game. His game is what has worked in the past. Because when it comes to the future of the economy, is it going to look different? Sure it will. But is it going to rhyme with the past, 100%. Absolutely. The trends that we've had for the past 80, 100 years in these markets is going to, to some degree, continue. Right. Our YouTube video with our Paul Merriman interview is one of our most watched recent YouTube videos. Right out of the gate, it just blew most of our other videos out of the water.

41:49That and our interview with Christine Benz, those two just, there's a huge hunger for - Voice of Reason. Yeah, you know, both of them are incredible researchers. I mean, they have spent decades immersed in research and data that back the financial conclusions that they've reached. And so is a testament to not just to the incredible research that they've both done, but also to how smart this audience is that they want to learn from the best. And Paul Merriman absolutely is one of the best. If you haven't heard the show, I encourage you to watch it on YouTube, youtube.com slash afford anything, because on the YouTube video, we have charts and graphs and visual supplements that enhance what he's talking about.

42:40So you can find that again on our YouTube channel, youtube.com slash afford anything. But if you want to find the audio episode, it's episode 550. That's afford anything.com slash episode 550. Well, thank you, Jesse, for the question. And I hope that gave you a solid discussion of why value and not growth. We're going to take one final break to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible. And when we return, we will hear from a member of this community who's wondering if she calculated her financial independence number correctly.

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44:34Welcome back. Our final question today comes from Nancy. Hi, Paula. My name is Nancy. I've called before for sage advice many, many years ago, and I figured I would give this a try with you today. I'm trying to understand my FIRE number based off of understanding better the amount that I have invested. I have money split between a Vanguard account as well as TSP and real estate. I think it's pretty straightforward when it comes to Vanguard. I can just see what my balance is. With TSP, I'm wondering if you would consider the amount invested, the amount that I've put in, the amount that I've put in, plus the amount that my employers put in, or the current value of my portfolio now, which includes its interest.

45:22But much of that is not a Roth. So I don't know how much would be taken out with taxes. And then when it comes to real estate, I'm also curious about what does it mean to assess how much I've invested? So are we talking about the amount of cash that I've put in, whether that be from the actual down payment and my monthly payments, that entire accumulation, that amount, or are we talking about the equity minus the loan value? Are we talking about the full current valuation or the amount of the purchase price? All of those numbers are different. And I'm just curious how you would advise us to look at those numbers when thinking about our fire number and the amount invested we would need to retire or to work when we wanted to.

46:16It's work optional. Thanks so much for your guidance. Have a great one. Paula, I'm wondering if Nancy's sitting at her desk at work going, how do I get the hell out of here? As many people do. Well, so Nancy, what strikes me about your question is that I hear almost a conflation of two different questions. I hear the question, how do I calculate my net worth? And then I also hear the question, how do I calculate my phi number? And those are two different questions. So when you ask, for example, about the TSP, what do you count your contributions or your plus your employer's contributions or the total portfolio value?

46:59That to me sounds like a question about how do I calculate my net worth? And similarly with the house, do I calculate the equity in the home or do I calculate the total value of the home? That also, again, sounds like a question about how do I calculate my net worth? We'll answer that question in just a moment, but I want to first make a distinction between the questions of how do I calculate my net worth and then the question of how do I calculate my phi number? Because your phi number is an estimate of how much you would need in order to make work optional, whereas your net worth is a snapshot of where you are at this point in time.

47:36And I understand many people will base their PHY number on what ultimately ends up being a total net worth, but that is not necessarily how it should be done for reasons that we can get into in a moment. So to answer the first portion of your question, which is how do I calculate my net worth? Just think of it like this. Your net worth is everything you own minus everything you owe. So I would take the total portfolio value of your TSP because that is included in everything you own. And then for your home, I would, in the plus side, have the value of your home. And in the minus side, subtract out the balance of your mortgage.

48:16So that way it's everything you own minus everything you owe. Now, that's how you calculate your net worth. And many people will use as their FI number a given net worth. So, for example, hypothetically, a person might say, when I have a net worth of$2 million, I will be financially independent or$2.5 million or$3 million. But I think that there is a risk when it comes to using your total net worth as your FI number for the very reason that you've identified, which is that your net worth is made up of both liquid and illiquid investments. Well, and not just liquid investments, but also investments that you are not going to want to use as fuel, possibly, for financial independence.

49:02Right. So as an example, the house that you live in, unless that house you live in is going to be fuel for your financial independence, you don't want to use any of the equity in the house you live in. Right. Right. So when you're calculating the bucket of money that you have for FI, I would calculate money that you would actually be willing to tap, which is different from total net worth. And so when it comes to your home, and this is totally up to you. I know some people who are like, as soon as I reach financial independence, I'm going to sell my home. I'm going to move into an RV. I'm going to RV around the country, or I'm going to sell my home.

49:42I'm moving to Costa Rica. So there are some people who will tap that home equity because they plan on liquidating that house at the time that they reach financial independence. But I still question that number as well. I question both of those scenarios as well. Because they might not want to live in that RV or live in Costa Rica. Yeah, because our feelings change over time. I mean, it's funny because you and I, I think both interviewed Bill Perkins a long time ago, but that dude's having a moment right now. I have no idea why. and all the online communities, everybody's talking about Bill and about die with zero again.

50:15But Bill's main tenant is you change over time. And so if I say that I'm very comfortable, Paula, living in a tent down by the river, I might not be comfortable living in a tent down by the river 15 years from now. I might not want to go to Costa Rica 15 years from now. So if I'm doing that because standard of living wise, it's the lowest common denominator plan and I can barely scrape by, I'm going to be really nervous that I'm in Costa Rica going, what the hell am I doing here? I don't want to be here. And now I want to upgrade my lifestyle and I can't. Right. And that, in a way, almost gets to the question of lean fi versus fat fi in terms of do you define fi or work optional as the smallest amount of money that you would need to live in order to get by and be okay?

51:12Or do you define it more as some bigger amount of money where you would have flexibility, flexibility and comfort? I guess I should where I stand. Yeah. So a part of it is, are you aiming for the psychological comfort that comes with lean fi? Because lean fi does have, there is an enormous sense of relief. Like I can tell you personally, I feel an enormous sense of relief knowing that if I needed to, I could move into one of my rental properties, which is all of them. I have seven and they're fully paid off, free and clear. I could move into one out of those seven rent out the other six and I'd be okay.

51:52I wouldn't be going to bars and restaurants and concerts every weekend, but I'd be okay. I love that psychologically because it gives you the power to think long-term with your decision making, right? You're not thinking about how am I going to eat tomorrow? How am I going to make a decision that supports me? You're able to go, I'm going to tell the boss to shove it today because I hate this job and there's no amount of money worth working here. Right. But acting on it then to go live in that apartment is the hard. I love the psychological part. Yeah. Yeah. I think lean fi is great for the psychological benefit, but actually acting on it is hard to sustain long-term.

52:35It's a great option if you're in a situation that you have to get out of. Are you playing offense or are you playing defense? If you're playing defense and you're in a situation that is toxic and you need to get out of that situation, lean fi is a great, fantastic, fantastic mechanism. But if you're playing offense, then for that bucket of money, for offensive fi, you'll want to calculate that with money that you actually would be willing to tap. Well, and I'll tell you what else I like. and you know, Paula, more than anybody, how much I hate these terms. I can't stand any of these terms, but I'm going to lean into them.

53:15You ready? Look at that pun. Lean coast fi, meaning I'm not there yet, but I know that for two years I could coast and taking that two year sabbatical to go find the right thing. That's even a powerful spot to be like, I don't even need to be a hundred percent there, but just knowing I could take a couple of years off savings and I'm still going to be okay, that's pretty kick-ass too when it comes to some of those toxic situations. Exactly. But I think I just said a bunch of terms that made me throw up in my mouth. Joe's going to come around to the fire movement eventually. Well, it's not that.

53:54I'm there. I just think we need more people to experience the fire movement for those of you that are new here. And these terms are exclusionary because people that are brand new to this movement and I'm like, what the F are you talking about? I disagree. I think having a common vocabulary is - Oh, I think it's horrible. A common vocabulary is what unites a group. It's what creates in-group cohesion. Well, then Roth IRA would be far easier for people to get around or a straddle option strategy. All these great terms that we have, 72T. I don't know. I think we need fewer of those terms. I think the more we get the jargon out of it, we make it open to more people.

54:42It's great. Joe and I are disagreeing again. Yes. And as usual, I'm right. As we are wont to do. Can I give Nancy something else here? Yeah. If this is a really important goal for you, and Nancy, I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to everybody. Get on a calculator and start to put together a real plan because of the fact that this 25 times your income number that also makes me throw up in my mouth because it so doesn't apply to anybody. It applies to zero people. But this is such an important goal, Paula, for everybody. It's such an important thing. And yet every study shows we spend more time planning our next vacation than we planning our retirement.

55:26Now, clearly that's not this community, but we still try to press the easy button on this thing that means so much to us. And it is not that much harder. And it's incredibly sticky if we just get on a calculator and say, what exactly do I want? What do I want financial independence to look like for me? It ain't going to be 25 X my number today. It's not going to be that. It's going to be something that's unique to me. And when I take the time to pour myself into that goal, guess what happens? The goal becomes even stickier. Like, don't get me wrong, Nancy. I can hear you're there right now, right?

56:05That's why I joke that maybe Nancy's sitting at her desk going, how do I get out of here? But dive into some calculators and look at this a little more analytically. Because when you do that, you're going to find things like what I'm going to mention next, which is you talked about the real estate equity minus the loan value. But if you're not going to sell that piece of real estate, it then becomes a cash flow engine. And now I don't want to use the equity at all because the equity in that house is my golden goose. And so the equity versus the cash flow is not going to 25x no matter how you do it.

56:44So I would go get a calculator and I would really dive into this because A, it's fun and it gets more fun. And the more you do these what if scenarios, what if I did this? What if I did this? Ooh, maybe I'll try this. And then you become incredibly committed because you spent some time on it. But I think Nancy's asking what number should she plug in or what set of numbers should she plug in? But I think she's got to plug in the cash flow on the real estate piece, which is going to blow up the rest of the calculation. She talks about her fine number. When you say cashflow in the real estate piece, Joe, are you saying if she were to move out of her home and rent it out?

57:27I'm saying for anybody, and this is why this doesn't apply to Nancy, anybody that has cashflowing property or cashflowing positions where they're using the cashflow and not the equity to fund their financial independence. That's where Nancy's whole question becomes more difficult to answer. So in other words, if a person wanted to calculate their fine number, perhaps the number that they're calculating is not some kind of a net worth, but rather it's how do I make, let's say,$5 ,000 a month, hypothetically. We'll just use that as a illustrative example. And if the goal is$5 ,000 a month, then the calculation becomes, all right, what combination of rental property income or residual income from other businesses that I run or have an ownership stake in income streams in general.

58:21Yeah, exactly. What income streams do I have? And if it's equities, are you pulling out the dividends? Are you selling off a portion of your portfolio? 4 %? So what income streams do I have that would tally up to$5 ,000 per month? And what I like that we're doing from the very beginning with what you just said, What I love about that is it really also answers, Nancy, your exact question, because Nancy's like, Joe, why'd you go off on that? Because I don't have half of that. It wasn't about you. It was definitely about why I don't like this calculation. What I like about what you just said is that we automatically then take out any number from that net worth number that doesn't meet our financial independence goal.

59:08So I'm not going to include my equity in my home unless, to your point, I'm going to move and downsize. If I'm going to move and downsize, then I'll take some of the equity. But it clearly, then Nancy answers your question about, does this count? Does that not count? Right. And that's why calculating the fine number is distinct from calculating your net worth because your net worth, Nancy, is the total portfolio value of your TSP. And it is the total current market value of your home minus the outstanding mortgage balance. So that's how you'll know what your net worth is. And that's a nice number to know because it's so what gets measured gets managed.

59:49So it's important to measure that number, I'd say at least once a year, have an annual marker of where that number is. It's funny because I don't find net worth to be that useful myself, except for one thing. One thing. It's like my annual accounting of all my stuff. Right. And then that gets my subconscious brain going on, am I optimally using each of these things? Because often we'll have an old IRA over here or a savings account at this other bank that we forgot about. And I'm like, what use do I have for that anymore? Does the reason I had it last year still make sense? That's the only reason for me I like net worth.

1:00:34Right. Just to use kind of an exaggerated example for the sake of illustration, if you lived in a fully paid off$2 million home. Ooh, okay. But you had only$10 ,000 in portfolio assets, in investable assets. Oh, I'm out. Right. And this is an exaggerated example for the sake of illustration. Yes, you would own your home free and clear, but you would have virtually zero income stream. Even if you were to draw down that$10 ,000 at a 4 % rate or a heck of 5 % rate, it would amount to nothing, not even enough to pay your electricity bill. And obviously, that is a caricature of an example. Nobody is actually going to have that type of a position, but it illustrates how in that example, you could have a$2 million net worth, but you wouldn't be anywhere close to FI because the amount of tappable money would be so small.

1:01:36It also shows why this idea that my home is the cornerstone of my investment empire is so misguided. Right. Primary residence, yes. And I saw it again last week in a forum that so many people still see their primary residence as the centerpiece of their investment portfolio. We got to work harder getting that word out, Paul. Yeah, we do. So, Nancy, I hope this helps answer your question. And there are two numbers you need to calculate. Your net worth, which is just fun to know. But more importantly for you, your tappable money. What are your income streams to get you to the amount that you would need every month when work becomes optional?

1:02:25A number that I like to calculate for people that aren't close. We don't know if Nancy's close or not. Maybe she's calculating it because she thinks she might be there, which would be awesome. But for people that aren't close, I also like calculating how much time can I spend away and still be okay? Because that also gives you power against the killer of long-term vision, which is doing short-term and obvious stuff versus long-term and not so obvious, but far healthier stuff. Yeah. Yeah. I have a friend right now, actually. She's on a sabbatical. She was an engineer at a tech company for a long time and is now intentionally taking a sabbatical before she goes into her next position.

1:03:11and I haven't asked her about her numbers. So I, I don't think that she is five for life, but she's definitely five for as long as I've known her, you know, she's, she's definitely been five for a solid like year. Hey, it's the reason why I'm here with you is because at age 40, I had that guy I looked up to said, I've done a great job of saving and I don't love being a financial planner. I like it, but I don't love it. And I think I have other mountains to climb. And he took time to go find himself and now runs an adventure travel company, has climbed most of the tall peaks in the world. We thought it was a metaphor.

1:03:51Turns out it wasn't. He really had mountains to climb. And that was so inspiring to me, the fact that somebody could take time to just go find it versus doing the same thing I did yesterday. It might not be 100 % what I want to do. That is a great, great, great thing. Thank you for the question, Nancy, and best of luck as you build to work optionality. And everyone who's ever called in, please call us back with an update. Call us a year from now and tell us how things have gone. Joe, we've done it again. Oh, fabulous as always, Paula. Amazing. Joe, where can people find you if they'd like to know more of you?

1:04:30Well, what I'd like to focus on is where they can find both of us, because hopefully by the time this comes out, tickets are not completely gone. As we record this, they're half gone and they are selling very quickly, but you and I and our friend doc G are having an event in Manhattan. We're coming to see Paula. Yes. Yes. We're having an event in New York city on December 12th. Also a special guest, my cohost on stacking Benjamins. Oh, geez. Joining us as is our friend Jillian Johns rude. And we're talking to some other celebrities, celebrities, personal finance, celebrities, fire celebrities, and PF celebrities.

1:05:11Yes, but we don't have room for everybody. So I, we don't want you to be left out in the cold. So if you're anywhere close to Manhattan on December 12th, the place to go to sign up is stackingbedjamins.com slash NYC. So stackingbedjamins.com slash NYC gets you to the place to grab tickets. and we hope we get to hang out with you on December 12th. Yes, I can't wait. That's going to be so much fun. Yes, we're violating so many restraining orders all at the same time. I thought you were going to say health code violations. Maybe that too. Well, thank you to all of you for tuning in, for being part of this community.

1:05:51If you enjoyed today's episode, please do three things. First, sign up for our newsletter, affordanything.com slash newsletter. Second, please leave us a review in your favorite podcast playing app. While you're there, make sure that you hit the follow button so that you catch all of our amazing upcoming episodes. And third, please share this with your friends, your family, your neighbors, your colleagues. Share this with the people in your life. Thank you again for tuning in. This is the Afford Anything Podcast. I'm Paula Pant. I'm Joe Salcihai. And we'll meet you in the next episode. Thank you.