Radical Transparency in Real Estate Predictions

24:35But the stock market is up like, what, 15%, 17%, something like that year to date. If you exclude the FAANGs, it's down 2%. So if you exclude like five tech companies, essentially, the US stock market is down 2 % year to date. That makes sense because Microsoft, NVIDIA, basically any company that would profit from AI has led the charge. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla. Is Tesla? Yeah, I think Tesla is having a good year, but in the context of a bad two or three years. Something like that. Yeah, I haven't checked. Maybe I'm off on that one. You can exclude these five select tech companies that are pretty big.

25:10Mark us down. Press the market. How do you play into that? Interest rates. Interest rates are rising. There's not a lot of reason to believe that the Fed is going to bring them down in the near term. There's a lot of reason to believe they're going to stop raising them. But that's not good news. The yield curve is inverted. And so if the Fed doesn't reduce rates, the interest rates on longer term debt are going to keep marching up, which is bad news for the bond market. You've got real estate, which, you know, hey, what's going on here? why haven't prices come down more with the industry environment?

25:37You talked about the intricacies of supply, what's holding back inventory, is this lock-in effect? There is a lot of new constructions that is a risk. And then you have small businesses, which are a lot of work and may be inaccessible to a lot of folks. So in that context, obviously, I'm a real estate investor and like real estate, I like the fact that I can lock in debt, amortize it over a long time horizon. I'm going to make money through amortization of my debt, some appreciation. I'm going to produce some cash flow. Once I've made that determination, now I've picked those markets. Kansas City, I like Kansas City.

26:08I think that's a great example of a place where there's potential opportunity in this country. I don't know the supply and demand dynamics. You need to dive into that. Is some of that supply that's getting in the South and the Sun Belt hitting Kansas City, or are you pretty insulated from that? But if so, that might be a great place to hold real estate for a number of years, and you can probably get a pretty good cash and cash return in a market like to October 2025. That was a fascinating conversation. So what aged well and what aged poorly? We're going to take a break to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible.

26:39And when we come back, we're going to unpack that. The kids are back in school now, and I finally have some extra time to plan a weekend getaway for just us. We've been wanting to visit Lancaster County, Pennsylvania for a while now because I've heard so many people rave about it. We love exploring new places, finding the cutest shops, and eating at restaurants that the locals love. DiscoverLankaster.com is the best place to learn about the unique things to do and upcoming events. Plan your trip alongside us at DiscoverLankaster.com slash amplified. Introducing your new Dell PC with the Intel Core Ultra Processor.

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29:27Welcome back. A few things strike me right away when I listen to the conversation that Scott and I had in August of 2023. First of all, at the time, the dominant conversation was around something that on the surface appeared counterintuitive, which was that interest rates had doubled, but housing prices were remaining strong. You know, many people had speculated that housing prices would crash when interest rates spike because unaffordability would just reach an apex. But what we saw in August 2023, and which is still the case today, even in the context of higher interest rates, home prices hold because sellers don't want to lose their equity.

30:07They don't want to lose their gains. And so they would rather hold on to their properties than sell at a steep discount. Scott explained this through the lock-in effect, meaning that homeowners with mortgages at 3 % or 4 % rates weren't selling because they didn't want to give up those rates. It strikes me how little has changed between August of 2023 and October of 2025. We still have the lock-in effect in full force. According to Realtor.com, as of September 2025, more than 80 % of mortgages have an interest rate that is below 6%. And of these, about 10 % have a rate that's in the 5 % to 6 % range, meaning the bulk of these are actually sub-5 % loans.

30:56According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the average rate for outstanding mortgages in the first quarter was 4.3%, which is another way of saying among existing homeowners who have mortgages, those existing homeowners on average have a mortgage rate of 4.3%, which means that that lock-in effect that Scott described, it was certainly much stronger in August of 2023 when interest rates were in the high 7%, almost 8 % range. That lock-in effect is weaker now, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The weekly national average, according to bank rate, is 6.31 % for the week of October 19th.

31:38So there's still a difference of about two percentage points between the average mortgage holder's interest rate versus what the market is currently offering. And that has a huge impact on home sales and buyer activity. So currently, Fannie Mae's forecasting that total home sales in 2025 will be at 4.72 million. that would be below home sales in 2024, meaning fewer people in 2025 are expected to buy homes as compared to last year. That projection was made by Fannie Mae. Realtor.com projected that 2025 is going to be the lowest annual transaction pace since 1995. So the major story in 2025 is no one's buying homes.

32:30It is an amazing buyer's market right now. If you are in a position to be a buyer, this is the time to buy. And if you're in a position to be a seller, I'm very sorry because this is a terrible time to sell. Obviously, your local market may vary. All markets are local. But this is at the broad national level. This is how the national story is playing out. What we've seen, as compared to what Scott and I discussed, is that housing prices over the last two years have, relatively speaking, remained stable. Home prices have kept pace with inflation. No better, no worse. There hasn't been a collapse in home prices, nor has there been a wild spike.

33:14In the face of depressed buyer activity, home prices overall have more or less held their ground. Slight softening in major metro markets, but not by any significant degree. The Case-Shiller Index, as of August 26, shows annual home price growth increased by 1.9 % in June. The 10-city index was up 2.6 % for the year. the 20-city index was up 2.1 % as compared to a year ago. After seasonal adjustment, all three readings had a slight decrease. So just to pause and zoom out and summarize that a little bit, June's results show a 1.9 % year-over-year increase. With seasonal adjustment, we have a slight decrease.

34:02What that shows, net-net, the housing cycle basically is settling right around inflation parity growth, growth at the level of inflation rather than growth at the level of anything beyond inflation, which is to say it's holding steady. We are seeing, of course, interest rates have come down a bit. We talked about that at the time. We were worried about further increases in the Fed's rates. We are now, two years later, at the point where we are finally starting to cut rates. And of course, we are expecting two more rate cuts this year. the next one of which will likely be announced on October 29th.

34:42So all in all, the picture right now is actually remarkably similar to the picture in August of 2023. Listening to it, I was surprised at how little has changed. The lock-in effect is still there. Home prices are stable. Interest rates are down a bit, but not a lot, and are just starting to come down. New construction helped ease some of the supply crunch, but there's still a big supply crunch. I did think it was interesting how Scott predicted that builders would thrive in spite of the high interest rate environment. So he talked about his friend who doubled down on building and was doing well.

35:18From today's vantage point, what we can see is that the building with regard to the home maintaining value, solid, absolutely solid. Building with regard to finding a buyer, that's tougher because homes are sitting on the market longer. Average days on market is high. Transaction volume is low. That said, new construction generally moves faster than existing home sales. And the major advantage builders have, assuming they're capitalized enough, is that they can offer interest rate incentives to buyers. And that provides a huge advantage over the sellers of existing homes. So we've seen the market in 2025 actually shift toward new construction.

36:08Builders, as of 2025, this is a report from the Structural Building Components Association. They put out their new construction quarterly report. So as of Q2 of 2025, the price premium of new construction over existing homes hit 7.8%, which is a record low. So that is good news for buyers. It sounds like not good news for builders because of that shrinking price premium. But in spite of that, according to a quote from Realtor.com, quote, builders continue to deliver new homes to the market at a healthy pace. The report goes on to say that there's been a recent slowdown in starts and permits, largely amid tariff concerns and the threats of a combination of lower demand and higher material costs.

36:56And so tariffs and their impact on the cost of materials, that is a piece of the puzzle in 2025 that we were not discussing two years prior. Overall, though, I am in general quite taken by how little has changed between 2023 and 2025. You know, listening to our conversation back then with the benefit of two years of hindsight, many of the broad macro concerns remain steady. All right. With that said, we will climb back into our time machine and listen to another snippet from that conversation. How do you go about or how would you recommend a person go about trying to figure out which city they should be investing in, right?

37:42As we discussed at the beginning at the top of the show, all real estate is local. All real estate is hyperlocal. So there is no such thing as a national market. There's only a bajillion mini markets or a bajillion local markets, right? But for a person who lives in Manhattan, who is definitely not going to invest in Manhattan, they're trying to figure out if they're going to invest in Kansas City or Omaha or Cincinnati. How do they get started? Yeah. I think, I'll again quote our VP of data analytics, Dave Meyer. I think he has a good handle on this. But I think there's three ways to think about what you want to go for.

38:15Do you want cash flow? Do you want appreciation? Or are you looking for a hybrid? There's nothing that offers everything all at once. But you can get a blend of – if you're to plot out the appreciation and cash flow of the markets, it's a distinct trend line where there's a tradeoff. There are bubbles – this is over the last five to ten years. There are bubbles and a couple of markets that have done well with both. But you're really going to have to make a tradeoff decision there. Many investors choose cash flow. I think that's great. But I personally think that unless you are needing the cash flow in the near term, appreciation is going to net you off in a better place in five to ten years.

38:50So you look at those net migration patterns. You look at where the supply is coming online and where it isn't. You look at places that you know that you like to be a part of your life, so you could actually physically go there, visit, meet the people that are going to be managing your property and helping you find deals. I think those are going to give you distinct advantages, and it's a bet. What's going to happen over the next 10, 15, 20 years, right? Dave Meyer has some projections. He's got, here are the best 10 cash-flowing markets currently in the country. Here are 10 that might have great appreciation prospects next year.

39:21Or here are some hybrid markets. So you'll have to read that and determine if you agree with his calls on those ones. All right. Well, we'll link to that in the show notes. So what you just outlined, determining if you're going to pursue an appreciation strategy versus a cash flow strategy, makes me think of the analog to that would be essentially growth stocks versus dividend stocks. You got it. Right? Mm-hmm. And the trade-off, if you're going for a high dividend portfolio, the trade-off of a stock spits out high dividends because it's not reinvesting in growth. Absolutely. Now, I'll also answer from a context of what I'm doing personally.

39:58I invest in Denver, Colorado. I am not bullish on Denver, Colorado real estate in the next two or three years. But I'm not doing anything with my portfolio. I'm logged in to that 3%, 4 % interest rate mortgages as a landlord. I'm holding those properties. I'm expecting relatively low appreciation compared to the rest of the country. So if the country is negative, I expect Denver to be more negative. If the country is positive, I expect it to be less positive over the next couple of years because of the supply dynamics that I was telling you about. But I also believe that over the next 10 to 15 years, holding onto this great low interest rate debt in my backyard operating well, I'm going to harvest cash flow and I'm going to amortize my debt.

40:35And over 10 to 15 years, I think Denver is as good a bet as any other market in the country because of the fundamental reasons people want to be in Denver. It's like fairyland in the summer in particular in the Front Range. Obviously, I don't know what we do in the winter besides skiing and snowboarding. So I'm just bullish on that. And that's what it really comes down to at some point for a lot of investors is, okay, well, call me up in 15 years, see how Denver has appreciated from 2023 to 2038. We'll find out at that point. Are you an advocate? So what you've also outlined is you're in just one metro market.

41:08But what do you see as the pros and cons between consolidating all of your rental properties into one metro market versus diversifying across two, three, four markets? I believe the advantages are in control. Yes, you're taking more concentrated geographic risk in the market. But I think that the advantage, I know the market. I know that this area of town is likely to appreciate rapidly over the next couple of years. And this area isn't going to change much. Or I can make those bets with relative confidence because I live here. I know the contractors in my network. I've met the agents that I work with, the lenders.

41:43All that stuff, I think, gives you an advantage over time. When things get particularly painful, I can go to the property, see what's going on, and make a call on, okay, this is how I want to handle this negative rehab situation, right? A basement flooded one of my properties recently. Okay, here's the plan. No, that's not going to release. That's going to patchwork it. I need to fundamentally solve this problem by doing this, this, this, and this. I can see that in Denver in a way that would be much more painful for me to get on a flight and go out of town for. So I always think that despite the differences, you know, regionally, if you're going to look for an out-of-town market, pick the best one.

42:15Pick the one that you think is going to be most conducive to your goals. But it also heavily bias you if you're looking to invest in real estate for the next 20 years, do it in your backyard might just be the best way to win. Or at least somewhere that's maybe within driving distance rather than flying distance. Yeah. So if you live in New York City, for example, maybe someplace, maybe Albany or Rochester. And I'm hearing success stories from New Jersey and pockets there. So again, I'm fairly bullish on the Northeast. And I won't be surprised if New York isn't a particularly good place for the next couple of years as well.

42:47So I know it's really expensive, but I'm not a bear on New York real estate here. Interesting. Yeah, it's hard to squeeze a good cap rate out of New York, or at least out of Manhattan. But you're going to have lots of rent growth too. So there's lots of good reason to believe in rent growth and lots of cash flow growth. Now, how do you make projections around rent growth? So this is a topic that seems to have come on people's radar fairly recently because for the last decade, we've seen rent growth be 2%, 3 % per year. And in the last couple of years, rent growth has exploded nationwide. But property taxes, a lot of that gets offset by higher property taxes because of higher home values.

43:25so net to the landlord, it's kind of a wash. How do you price in rent growth when you are forecasting for a rental property? I think rent growth predictions are all over the place nationwide. I think that there's this really complicated supply and demand dynamic, but then there's also the simple fact that mortgage rates, which is effectively competition to renting, have skyrocketed so much that makes housing so much more expensive and should be with significant an upward pressure on rents. Here we are in 2023 with, I think, negative rent growth by 1 % for the first time in a couple of years. That was a headline recently, year over year again, from this month to the same month last year, July, compared to July 2022.

44:05So I think it's anybody's guess. I think you're going to have a lot of downward pressure on rents though, in my opinion, because of the supply dynamic I just told you about. Again, your competition for multifamily. You got the single family stuff coming online, but that's typically owner occupied. All of the multifamily units are rentals. So I think that in some markets, you're going to see significant downward pressure on rents. And in some markets, you're going to see rent going up. The major thing that I'm hearing from you, I think my key takeaway from what we've spoken about so far is that if you're thinking about investing in a market, look at how many new multifamily starts are happening in that market.

44:42And that's going to be a key indicator on price pressure within that market. Would that be accurate to say? I think that's right. And I think kind of listening to myself talk here about the rents and stuff, I'm like, you know, I think the higher level pieces have a long term outlook. Buy an asset that you're going to hold on to for a long period of time because this is anybody's guess and there's going to be volatility in a lot of these regions. It's super complicated. You have to guess what the Fed's going to do with interest rates. You have to guess at what's going to happen with migration patterns and demand dynamics in your market.

45:12You can get a pulse on supply. So that's one thing that you can actually look at. And you're going to have to use that information to make a calculated guess if you want to do like a three-year investment thesis. If you're doing a 20-year investment thesis, you buy a good property in a good part of town that cash flows from day one, run your numbers really carefully, add value, put it to its highest and best use, and hold on and let the tenants pay off the mortgage and produce a little bit of cash flow. And things are going to be good there. Buy a good deal at a reasonable price running your numbers.

45:39So I think that's the big message. Then again, I, of course, have spent the last 30 minutes diving into great detail, trying to guess the outcomes of these very specific markets and understand the nuances of what happened last year and try to break what's going to happen last year. So again, what I'm doing in Denver, I'm holding on my properties for the next 10 years. That was the decision. I might sell them earlier, but I'm mentally prepared to hold on for the next 10 years. I expect them not to appreciate a ton. They may come down in the near term, but at the end of 10 years, I'm going to have amortized the debt to a significant degree, produce some cash flow.

46:10And I'm also really liking the lending market right now. Because I'm less bullish on things like stocks or real estate, I like the fact that interest rates have risen and I can get a 7%, 10%, 12 % yield on a hard money loan, for example, or corporate bond debt, for example. So you're a big fan of private lending right now? Yes. Interesting. Can you elaborate a little bit on why you are bullish on the Northeast? The one major factor that I've heard is there's not a lot of new construction happening in the northeast, which is a reason for bullishness because supply will remain low, which puts upward pressure on prices.

46:44Beyond that, are there any other reasons that you're bullish on this region? I guess I'm less bearish. I think I'm more neutral, neutral positive. I think the real estate market is going to be fine. It's not going to explode in the next couple of years. I think it's going to be – there's a risk of it negatively impacting the south and the Sun Belt. I think that there will be business as usual in pockets of the Northeast and the Midwest. And I just think that's because nothing's happened in there. The changes are not, they didn't explode in price, a lot of these markets. Again, it's very regional.

47:13Northeast, it's a broad category. Tons of places in Northeast. But like, take a town like Rochester, New York, right? Nothing exploded. Nothing came down with a high interest rate environment. 2022, 2023, the patterns for home price appreciation look almost remarkably similar the preceding 10 years. So there's a very pretty chart of no change. That's comforting in an environment like now compared to a Boise, which is coming down 20%. You're like, what's going to happen there? What's the issue? It's still really expensive out there. So that's more of my mentality on that. If I'm looking for a safe haven where you can operate consistently and have good odds at a predictable pattern, I think that there's a lot of markets outside of the really big cities.

47:56New York is its own beast where you can do pretty well with a consistent approach. Right, exactly. Does that make sense? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Given how much multifamily inventory is about to come online in the next coming years, new construction necessarily is Class A, right? Everything is Class A when it's first built. So what type of pressure could that put on any multifamily unit, including residential multifamily, duplex, triplex, fourplex, that is class B or class C? The conventional wisdom is that class C and class B get crushed in that environment. Again, third time today, I'm quoting Dave.

48:36Dave just did a really good, brilliant piece of analysis here and found that class A apartment units existing are down 13 % year over year on a price per unit basis in terms of sale price and class B and C down very moderately. So it's really interesting to see that the class existing class A inventory is getting hit first and hardest in this kind of first or second, maybe third inning that we're in here of the multifamily game where a lot of this debt has come and due. So how well did that portion of the conversation age? Well, we're going to take one final break to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible.

49:15And when we come back, Let's unpack it.

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50:38This Friday, the NBA on Prime tips off with their debut doubleheader. First up, Boston brings the action to the garden as the Celtics face the New York Knicks. Then out west, it's a battle of the superpowers as the Lakers try to poster the relentless pace of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Celtics and Knicks, who has the most hustle in defense? This game will come down to who wants it more. And the Timberwolves and the Lakers, it's two Western Conference heavyweights going toe-to-toe. buckle up folks this one's gonna be electric celdix nicks t-wolves and lakers coverage starts friday seven o 'clock eastern only on prime this episode is brought to you by progressive insurance you chose to hit play on this podcast today smart choice progressive loves to help people make smart choices that's why they offer a tool called auto quote explorer that allows you to compare your Progressive car insurance quote with rates from other companies.

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52:12Welcome back. In this portion of the conversation, we really dug deep into regional variation in real estate. And so with the benefit of hindsight, all right, let's take a look at the Sunbelt, the Midwest, the Northeast. How did all of these different regions fare? The South overall is continuing to lead the nation in housing supply. According to the new construction quarterly report, the South accounts for more than 50 % of both new and existing home listings, despite the fact that it accounts for only 39.4 % of U .S. households. So it disproportionately accounts for homes that are on the market.

52:55It is also the only region in which the share of new builds exceeds its share of existing homes for sale. So it has the highest level of builder activity. That is total contrast to the Northeast, which is the most inventory constrained region with a significant shortage of both existing and new construction homes. The Northeast also represents 17.1 % of U.S. households, according to this report. So in the Northeast and in the Midwest, tighter inventories and higher demand have pushed prices higher, meaning homes have appreciated faster in the Northeast and the Midwest. Two years ago, Scott and I also discussed migration patterns because making predictions about migration patterns is a big part of choosing a place to invest.

53:46What we have seen now with the benefit of hindsight is that the pace of migration slowed considerably in 2024, largely due to a combination of high mortgage rates and return to office policies. Overall, the Sunbelt states and the Mountain states remained migration winners. Nevada, Montana, Florida were very popular destinations. The two biggest winners were South Carolina and Idaho. South Carolina is up 3.6 percent net relative to its population, and Idaho gained 3.4 percent net gain relative to population. States that are losing the most residents are California at negative 2.2 percent, New York at negative 2.1 percent, and Illinois at negative 1.9 percent.

54:37Those three states suffered the greatest losses, largely due to high living costs. But overall, we just saw the pace of change slow. So net outflows from California, New York, and Illinois slowed significantly. So we're still seeing net outflows from those three states, but not as fast. Meanwhile, the big gainers, Florida, Texas, Georgia, they saw inflows flatten toward zero. And interestingly, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from negative migration rates to slightly positive migration rates. So we might be seeing the Midwest become a net migration growth destination. Everything I'm citing right now comes from a report from the CRE Daily, which delivers news on commercial real estates.

55:31Okay, there's one final segment that I want to share. So let's climb back into our time machine for one last time, travel to August 2023, and listen to this conversation about practical investment strategy. Within real estate asset classes, are you relatively more bearish on large multifamily? Oh, yeah. I don't think single families go anywhere. What's going to be the shock? Right. Everyone's locked in their long-term debt. Everyone's got good credit. Nobody's got crazy mortgages. Right. Right. There's a higher percentage of people who own single-family free and clear now than there has been in decades.

56:09Largely baby boomers. Maybe it'll come down. Maybe it'll flatline. But I think there's a reasonable chance it stays pretty flat, maybe even continues appreciating a few points. I think multifamily is going to have a pretty big one. What about residential multi, duplex, triplex, fourplex? Do you think it's going to trend more like single-family? Yeah, I think it's going to mirror more of the single-family space. I think it trades on a comp basis for the most part. But it'll be in between. but more leaning towards the single family space. Right. At least I hope because that's what I own. How many units do you have?

56:38I have 13 units. Oh, nice. So plus a small piece of a couple hundred units in one of those syndications. Oh, cool. Very cool. I've got seven. Yeah. Yeah. So this is actually quite validating because what I'm hearing, I've always specialized only in buying residential. And what I'm hearing is residential is the place to be. residential, either single family or small multifamily. As long as it's classified residential, there seems to be, at least in your opinion, more stability in anything that's classified residential and perhaps some more risk in anything that would be classified as commercial.

57:14That's right. I waffle between thinking that small multifamily and single family rental real estate is either the best asset to invest in or the least bad asset to invest in. So I waffle between those with a long time horizon. My personal view, of course, that's like the fox counting the chickens in terms of promoting real estate. I work at BiggerPockets. Right. Yeah, exactly. But it's refreshing to hear that when you are bearish on some component of real estate, you are unafraid to express that. Yeah. I'm not trying to pump up the real estate market here. I'm trying to get to the most realistic assessment I can get to.

57:57And, you know, that sometimes angers some of the syndicators in our platform. And I think there's really good, smart people who disagree with me. So like, don't just take my analysis here hard. I could be completely wrong on all this stuff. This is just what I'm seeing and how I'm, how I'm feeling about it right now. But yeah, I think that that's, that's the deal. And in two years, there's a good chance that if any of this comes remotely true, I'm going to be saying now's the time to buy a lot of multifamily because as soon as that construction glut is done with by middle to end of 2024, there's not going to be any new multifamily coming on the market.

58:28Nobody's starting a new project at that point in time. New supply is going to be much, much lower. It's going to be that boom and bust cycle. So yeah, I'll be back in two years telling you how it's time. The more things stay the same, right? Back in August 2023, Scott was talking about how the big tech companies were driving the bulk of the market growth at the time they were driving all of the market growth. That is still the case. The market growth is overwhelmingly driven by a small handful of major tech companies. And while, of course, the specifics of the numbers change directionally, broadly, in a macro sense, that trend has remained the same.

59:11Scott talks about how he is holding on to properties in which he has locked in lower interest rates that continues to appear to be a wise decision. And when he closed out talking about multifamilies, I pulled a report. So the National Association of Home Builders released a survey called the Multifamily Market Survey, in which they surveyed multifamily developers in the second quarter of 2025 and found that as of Q2, 2025, confidence in the multifamily market actually increased year over year. So the multifamily production index was up two points year over year, and the multifamily occupancy index was up one point year over year.

1:00:02Multifamily developer confidence actually increased as compared to last year. Quote, this is due in part to optimism surrounding the expansion of federal affordable housing resources flowing from the recent Congressional Reconciliation Bill. However, high interest rates, rising construction costs, limited land availability, and restrictive local regulations are still significant issues in certain parts of the country. End quote. The report goes on to talk about how multifamily starts are becoming less constrained and the National Association of Home Builders is forecasting that new starts will be higher in 2025 than they were in 2024, although both years are going to be below 2023 levels.

1:00:51This same survey asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental properties so people can choose a rating of good, fair, or poor. And what they found was that as of the second quarter of 2025, they saw year-over-year increases, meaning a more positive assessment, among multifamily owners who owned garden or low-rise apartments and among owners who have subsidized units. they did see a decrease by three points among people who held mid-rise to high-rise units. However, in absolute terms, all three segments, which are calculated as a weighted average, all three remained well into the higher sphere of the weighted average, meaning well above the break-even point.

1:01:46So there we have it. We just did something that you rarely see in financial media, which is we went back, we played the tape, and we asked ourselves, with the benefit of hindsight, what have we learned? And the thing about this type of exercise, and I believe that every serious investor should be doing this regularly, because every person who is trying to make sense of the markets. Everyone is operating with incomplete information. And so when your information becomes more complete, which is what the passage of time does, it becomes a very educational exercise to look back on what we previously thought and reassess our thinking in light of new information.

1:02:37So I think if the financial media was truly dedicated to financial education and not just financial showmanship, they should do exercises like this more. I think this type of retrospective, this type of play the tape is an incredibly valuable learning tool. In fact, inside of my course, Your First Rental Property, if you're a student, you can look back at our previous office hours and we have office hours dating back to 2019, 2020, very, very detailed sessions of frank Q &A discussions. So you can roll the tape, look back on some of the conversations that we were having pre-pandemic, and then watch the trajectory of thinking over the last six years.

1:03:28This course, Your First Rental Property, we are open for enrollment now, and we're open for enrollment only until October 30th. We are closing our doors on October 30. So this is your chance to join us for our Fall 2025 cohort. This is an incredibly valuable course for anyone who is a beginner rental property investor, regardless of whether you are intentionally seeking to buy your first rental or you are an accidental landlord holding on to a low-interest mortgage. Regardless of whether you're local versus out of state, you're house hacking or you're buying something that is purely meant as an investment and an investment alone, regardless of that situation, if you're a beginner rental property investor, this course is for you.

1:04:18Again, our doors are open right now and our doors will stay open until October 30. At that point, we shut our doors, focus on our students, and we all experience the fall 2025 cohort together as a peer group. So you have peer accountability and camaraderie. We have worksheets and checklists and spreadsheets, video lessons, live office hours with me, study halls. I strongly encourage you to come to our study halls. They're incredible. If you want to learn more, go to affordanything.com slash enroll. That's affordanything.com slash enroll. And remember the deadline is October 30. affordanything.com slash enroll.

1:05:04Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm Paula Pant. This is the Afford Anything podcast. I hope you enjoyed today's episode. If you did, please share it with the people in your life, friends, family, neighbors, colleagues, anyone who has ever indicated any interest in the real estate space, please share this episode with them. It is the single most important way that you can spread great financial knowledge. Thanks again for tuning in. I'm Paula Pant. This is the Afford Anything Podcast, and I'll meet you in the next episode.