Why Your Retirement Math Might Be All Wrong — If You Follow the 4% Rule

29:39But there's also a big component where you talk about figuring out what's next. Part of the challenge of retirement planning is that what you want to spend money on in your first five years of retirement, which are probably going to be a lot more travel heavy, years one through five are probably going to have a lot more travel than years five to 20. Years 20 through 30 might have more medical expenses. So there's this nebulous part of figuring out, you can't just assume that your current expenses, the standard, what are my current expenses or what are my ideal expenses? Let me 25X that, that's the amount that I need.

30:21But that doesn't really make sense in the context of dynamic spending. And so much of retirement planning is forecasting that dynamic spending. And there's a lot that you do unpack there. But one of the things that you talk about is having pots of money rather than ongoing budgets. Yeah. John Guyton talks about that. He's a financial planner and he's also a researcher who did some great work on dynamic spending strategies in retirement where you are looking at what's going on in your portfolio and what your withdrawal rate would look like relative to that portfolio. And you're kind of doing recalibration along the way.

31:03So he's worked a lot with clients on spending. And his point, I thought, was such a good one in the book, which is that your spending early on in retirement, and several people made this point, is, as you said, Paula, apt to be the high spending part of your retirement. With his clients, I think he gives them like a travel pot. His advice is, I hope you deplete this within the next 10 years if they're retiring at 65 or something like that, because the data would suggest that we do tend to see a decline in spending as people move through retirement. It averages out to be roughly a percentage point less than the inflation rate.

31:45We see this decline, and David Blanchett's research points to this decline kind of continuing through the early 80s period. And then we see spending in many cases ticking up in the very latest years of retirement. And that's often the uninsured health care expenses, especially long term care expenses. So spending throughout retirement is by no means this static inflation adjusted thing that is the same year after year, which is why, you know, when we think about static spending rules like the 4 % guideline, they're kind of a strong. man really when approaching this problem because people do not actually spend this way.

32:29And then invariably we all just have lumpy outlays whether we're working or not working. You have things where you have a lot of home repairs that hit at once or you've got to buy a new car or maybe you have a lot of travel planned or whatever. It's not all going to be equal throughout your retirement years. So I think this idea of a travel pot or a discretionary pot can be really empowering. So maybe you've got your static spending mapped out, the things that probably won't change a lot, but then you're giving yourself this discretionary bucket. So is that the approach then that someone should take?

33:05Because so often when people are first introduced to this, particularly in the FIRE movement, what we learn is 25x your annual spending is the amount that you need. And once you get that, then you just 4 % withdrawal rate and live happily ever after. That's the introductory. Right. Which always makes me nervous, I should say. Exactly. But then, of course, the reality is, as we've just talked about, that your spending is dynamic. If you graph your life and each year you're spending at any given year is a different data point, then the year in which you form your FIRE goal is just one randomized data point.

33:49Exactly. So to tether everything to a randomized data point, that's never made any sense to me. Right. So would the approach then be, do that with regard to your, the more static aspects of your spending, broadly speaking, groceries, adjusted for inflation, and assuming that your family size doesn't change. I'm trying to even think of what would be that style. Housing, taxes would be more or less predictable. Health care outlays, certainly utilities. Even health care rises at rates that are higher than inflation. Yeah, it has modulated a little bit, though, in recent years. There's a handful of expenses that you could put into those static categories, But it seems like a lot of your spending would be dynamic.

34:38Yeah. It's important, I think, to map out actually what your spending looks like. Don't just do a point in time analysis. Whether you have a traditional time horizon for retirement, you know, of 25 or 30 years or it's longer, at least spend some time looking at the first 10 years. You probably have some clarity around the things you want to do. get a spreadsheet where you are looking at each of those categories. You're anticipating some of those lumpy outlays, whether happy or less happy, but you are looking at spending on quite a granular level. I think that's a very valuable exercise that probably should precede how you structure your portfolio, how you determine how much to withdraw and so forth.

35:27That exercise of actually looking at your budget and how it might change in the first 10 years, at least. There was someone you interviewed who had three different ways of assessing your spending. I'd never heard of these three ways. I thought it was a very interesting approach. That was the John Guyton chapter where he talks about how you really should try to be quite specific about it. I loved his point that this is not back of the envelope time, Right. Okay. He says, first, number one, you could use software to track what you spend and categorize it. Duh. Okay. Great. Second, you could use a good old simple budgeting spreadsheet divided into categories.

36:11But then third, and this is the one that I thought was interesting, get a hold of your last six to 12 months worth of checking account statements, note the balance at the beginning, add up all of the monthly withdrawals, Then note the balance at the end. The difference is exactly what you spent. What struck me when I read that, it seems to me like to arrive at the best answer, you do all three. Yes. Right? And then with all three of those answers, you can see how closely the answers align with one another. Let's say that two out of those three answers are quite similar, but one of those three methods gives you an outlier answer.

36:49All right. Now we've got some further unpacking to do. But by contrast, if you do all three and all three give you a very similar answer, okay, now we can have a high level of confidence in that spending rate that we use moving forward. Yeah, exactly. I talked to John Guyton about this just recently in the context of his clients and their inflationary experience. And his point was, because we did this work so carefully heading into retirement, what we saw was actually the change in their spending over the past couple of years as inflation went higher almost exactly matched the inflation rate, which he viewed as a victory because they had been so careful in terms of forecasting spending.

37:34Wow. Speaking of spending, a lot of people, again, back to the fire movement, have a hard time spending. It's very hard to move from the accumulation phase to the, you know, when you formed a lifelong habit of being frugal and investing and accumulating, it's hard to flip the switch. Totally. I feel like this has been under discussed and maybe it feels a little bad to talk about it because we have a whole segment of our population who's way undersaved for retirement, who will come into retirement exclusively reliant on Social Security. So it feels like such a high class problem to even address.

38:16I can't tell you, Paula, how many times I've been out speaking to a group of older adults and some man apparently in his 80s will come up and say, I spend just 3 % of my portfolio a year. Regardless of what the balance is, this is how I do it. And I think, well, I hope that you have a good quality of life. I hope that's enough for you. But to me, there are just all these illustrations of people spending less than what they could do. And I think it's for exactly that reason you put your finger on it. You build your identity as a saver, as an investor. You see that balance grow. It feels bad to see the funds go the other way.

39:03I wrote about this on Morningstar.com not so long ago where I had sold some stock, some Morningstar stock that I had, and plowed the money into our taxable brokerage account, and it hadn't yet been taxed. And so then we had this enormous tax bill due to the gains in the stock. But I'm like, but it's over there in the brokerage account. I did not want to tap it for this tax bill. We're so used to just there being this one way direction paycheck into savings and investments that the thought of the funds coming out of that account, that that balance would ever go lower was very uncomfortable to me.

39:46So I think I'm going to be one of these people grappling with this issue of giving myself permission to spend what is a reasonable amount. And my husband and I work with a financial planner who we love. She's an hourly financial planner. She's like, you're not going to be able to spend what I think you can spend in retirement. She was like, I know you. It's going to be a struggle. So how do we give people permission to spend what they actually could spend? I think it's a work in progress, but I think it's something we need to be talking about. Right, right. Because it brings up so much anxiety to see your accounts dwindle.

40:24Right. And part of it is this term spending, I think. A lot of us are kind of judgy about it. I think people assume that if we're saying you should spend more, it means that you should go out to dinner every night or buy a new car every year, something stupid that I wouldn't suggest most people do. But it could mean that maybe you're giving a little bit more during your lifetime, that that would count as spending. But it's not spending on you. It's spending on seeing your money work for you during your lifetime versus leaving your kids money when they're in their 50s and 60s. So I feel like we need to we need to come up with a different term than spending, because I think some people think spending equals frivolity and it doesn't.

41:10One of the things that you talk about when it comes to thinking about retirement are what Maria Bruno refers to as the three halves. Have you had enough? Do you have enough? And will you have enough? Can you elaborate on that? I love that piece of wisdom, which I think she heard from someone else, but repeated for the book. So the have you had enough sort of means like, how are you feeling about work? And if you're feeling like I am done, I am out of here, that's sort of what she's relating there. For some of us, maybe the answer is, no, I haven't had enough. I still like some of this stuff that I'm doing.

41:50So that's sort of thinking about work and its role in your life or the lack of role you wanted to play in your life, whatever the case might be. And then the will you have enough relates to the financial piece that we so often talk about looking at your investment portfolio, looking at whether it's in a position to sustain you over whatever your retirement time horizon might be. And then the will you have enough pertains to quality of life considerations. Will your post-life work be enough to replace whatever life you had while you were working? So there you're thinking about relationships, purpose, all those things that may have animated your days while you were working.

42:35You want to make sure that you have some of those things in your later years post-retirement. Right. Because so often people are like, oh, man, when I retire, I just I'd like to read books and sleep. And you're like, great, that'll occupy you for a week. Then what? Exactly. There's this bucket list of relaxation. And it gets back to what we were talking about earlier, Paula, where people just burn themselves out. They work too hard. They don't have time to really think about anything besides just getting through the day or the week. And so they come into retirement with this bucket list of relaxation, which you absolutely should think about all the things that you want to do to take advantage of your newfound free time.

43:18But it is helpful to think about those other things, the things that will give you purpose. Jordan Grumet in the book talks about what he calls big P purpose and small P purpose. So big P purpose is the really aspirational things that you might want to achieve. So maybe writing a book or doing your whole family tree's genealogy or climbing a mountain or whatever the case, hitting all of the continents, whatever. That might be one sort of big P purpose or starting a foundation. And then he said that we all have these small P purposes that are equally important. So it might be just being a great partner to my spouse or pursuing baseball because I haven't had time to really watch baseball in the way that I did when I was a kid or being into birds or whatever.

44:16Many of us have these small P purposes. And Jordan's point is that those are just as important as those big P purposes that sometimes give people purpose anxiety. Just go with those small P purposes and you'll be good and maybe inspiration will strike for the big P purpose. So I love that concept of thinking about both sets of purposes as people embark on retirement. I've never heard the phrase purpose anxiety, but it resonates. Yeah, totally. When you're told you're supposed to have a purpose, it's like, oh, gee, can I have lunch first? Exactly. It's kind of like when people say, follow your passion.

44:55Right. Well, that's a little overwhelming. Yes. How do you even know what that is? Versus, oh, just follow your curiosity. Okay, that's doable. Exactly. Jordan said, try to plug into some of the things that as a kid you were really engaged with. and that you just kind of let go by the wayside, that maybe that's a starting point for some of these things. If you're feeling a little bit stymied about what your purpose might be, start there is his point. Yeah. I want to go back, actually, to something that we talked about towards the beginning of this interview, because you were talking about phased retirement and how in some workplaces that might look like reducing the number of hours spent at your job from, let's say, 40 down to 30, and then from 30 down to 20, etc.

45:44But an alternate version of that would not phase based on hours, but rather phase based on tasks, such that the tasks that you eliminate are the ones you don't want to do. And the tasks that you keep are the ones that you like the most. And of course, this is very highly dependent on what industry you're in, what job you have, whether you're self-employed or you work for an employer, et cetera, like this is going to be highly individual. I'm connecting that to big P purpose, right? Because it strikes me that some of the, in a phased retirement, some of the tasks that you hold on to could be part of that retirement purpose.

46:27Absolutely. And I love that idea for thinking about your retirement. And of course, it necessitates that you're in good, if you want to stick with the same employer, that you're in good standing with them to be able to call the shots on sort of the complexion of the work that you do. I do think there's an increasing awareness of older workers being really good workers that employers want to hang on to. So that's definitely something that older workers have going for them. One thing that I think is a real world issue in all of this is that invariably we get good at things that we don't love. And sometimes those are the things that our employers are like, what?

47:10You can't stop doing that. You're the only one who does, blah, blah, blah. So that's something that people I have found have to contend with, that that thing that is on their calendar where they're like, no, those are often the things that our employers want us to keep doing because we've gotten good at them, even though we don't love them. So that's maybe a real world impediment to putting some of this into action. But in general, I love that idea of trying to carry the kernels of the things that you really do love further into the future, keep doing them longer. And maybe you're stepping away from that workplace.

47:50Maybe you're just doing them in some other context. I have a close friend who is retired executive and has frankly kind of struggled with retirement, I think she needs to do leadership in some other capacity, even though she is not in her workplace anymore. I would love to see her take on a leadership role, maybe at some non-for-profit or something like that. She's a born leader. She should continue to lead people. So I think people need to think about the things they're good at and that they like and try to carry them forward and do them longer. You mentioned that for employees, often you get good at the thing that you don't like.

48:32And then your employer wants you to do that. It strikes me that even if you're self-employed, that can still happen because your clients start recognizing you as being good at X. And so the repeat client business that you get might be for this particular thing that you're good at. But it's not the thing that you want to be known for. Exactly. Or some specialized area of expertise where you're like, yeah, I know all that, but that is not the thing that really lights me up. Maybe know more about that than anyone else in this organization, but at the end of the day, it's not the thing I love. Right.

49:12Whether you're conventionally employed or self-employed, I could see that being a problem on both fronts. Because essentially, that is letting the market brand you rather than you taking charge of your own branding. And sometimes taking charge of your own branding means swimming upstream. And that can take a lot of effort. It can take years. to do those pivots. Yeah. Absolutely. But I think you're spot on that it applies whether you are self-employed, forging your own work identity, or you're employed by someone else.

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50:50If you were to do a phased retirement, one sticking point that I could see a lot of people grappling with is, do I physically have to come into the office every day or do I have the latitude to work remotely and perhaps that means live elsewhere? Because it seems like a lot of people associate retirement with moving. Absolutely. And I love the chapter in the book that looks into housing. Frankly, I think it's such an under-discussed aspect of retirement planning. The issue about whether you need to be in the workplace, it feels like this is kind of a moving target that we're hearing different things about different workplaces.

51:34Many, I think, are still on sort of the two or three days in the office, two or three days at home. Hybrid. Hybrid, exactly. The hybrid model. But I would say that if you want to continue working, but going into the office is a big sticking point for you, explore that with your employer. Explore the possibility of living somewhere else and potentially continuing to do that job longer. People should definitely give due consideration to where they live, the type of housing that they have later in life, and also the role that home equity could potentially play in terms of the retirement plan. It doesn't make a lot of sense that a lot of older adults die with a lot of housing wealth.

52:21it's an asset that arguably many, many retiree households have underutilized. And of course, reverse mortgages are not perfect by any stretch, but I think they're the right answer in some situations. And I think they should be part of the retirement planning discussion, especially for households where the finances are tighter. One of the myths that you bust is the idea that most retirees move. Some do, but many retirees decide that they're going to stay in place and they're going to maintain the same home that they've had. There are also retirees that will move somewhere for a while, but what you think you want when you're 60 or 65, when your kids are living wherever, is not the same thing that you want when you're 70 or 75 and those kids are living somewhere else and maybe they've got grandkids now.

53:14Your wants, when it comes to housing and when it comes to where you live are going to change quite drastically. I mean, over any 20 to 30 year time span, that's going to be true. Absolutely. I think demographers would say, actually, if you want to know where older adults will live, find out where the adult daughter lives, the oldest daughter. The data very much point to that being the main city where those older adults will tend to end up, it might be a moving target. And I loved Mark Miller's point in the book about how I was like, can I just stay in my house, which is what a lot of people want.

53:53That's their community. That's their social network. And his point was that that might not be the most practical place for you to live as you age. So don't fall into the trap of thinking your self today is how it will be going forward, that you may have things that will keep you from it. It's not something we want to ponder, but like you may not be able to run up the stairs like you used to and try to get ahead of some of those changes that will inevitably accompany aging and make those decisions proactively versus leaving your kids in the situation of having to make those decisions on your behalf.

54:32And maybe they're kind of making decisions that you don't really want at that point in time. If If you can kind of try to get ahead of the decision making, that's good for your kids and for your family. But it also means that you're more likely to land in a living situation that is satisfactory for you. Right. Right. Because mobility decreases as we age. But most of us don't live in single story homes that have no steps at the entrance and that have doorways that are wide enough for a wheelchair. Exactly. Exactly. And the fact is most of us don't want to ponder that sort of infirmity, right? Especially when we're young retirees, it's not something you want to think about.

55:14But certainly most homes are not at all set up for aging. Right. One thing that surprised me is that people who live in single family homes, the data shows tend to be happier up until the age of around, what was it, 70, 75? And then after that, people who live in apartments tend to be happier because of the increased social interaction. Social interaction is so important. Michael Finca made that point in his discussion with me. And it is something that really helps our brains to make sure that we're interacting with other people. I mean, just think about this conversation that we're having. We're looking at each other.

55:52I'm putting into my memory the things that you're saying and thinking about how I want to respond to them. There's so much about that that is good for us emotionally, but it's also good for our brains. And being in that community setting is so valuable. An example I gave for Michael in the book was that I was at this lunch. One of my friend's dads had died, and I'm sitting next to these people talking to them, and they had been all over the world. They were beautiful. They were older adults. I was like, your aunt and uncle are so amazing. And she said, do you know what? They're both in their 90s.

56:28And I was like, no way. Those people were 72. And they had told my husband and me that they had proactively moved into this independent living facility when they were still quite young, when they were in their 70s. But they liked the community, but mainly they wanted to shut their door and travel and not worry about having a whole house to worry about. And they didn't want to burden their kids with that stuff. And so it was just a beautiful illustration of how staying active had worked for this couple and it had been made possible by this choice that they had made in terms of their living situation.

57:06Not saying that's right for everyone. I'm not sure that that is something I would proactively choose, but it definitely, at least anecdotally, seems to work for people. Right. And it makes sense that particularly as you age, relationships become, I mean, they're always meaningful, but I think you have an increased awareness of that as you age. And so being surrounded by people with whom you're close. Exactly. Yeah. There have been so many studies that have looked at the connection between human happiness and satisfaction and relationships, and it all comes down to relationships. And this is throughout our lives, including into our later years.

57:46Laura Carstensen of Stanford made the point in the book that our social networks naturally winnow down a little bit as we age. And some of that is for sad reasons that people might move away or get sick and die. But some of it is actually self-selected, that our social networks actually get a little bit smaller as we age. Because we are opting out of some of these relationships that were sort of like good enough. And the example she gives is like your kids, friends, parents. Maybe they were great people to hang out with after the soccer games or while your kids were in high school or whatever.

58:25But at some point, maybe they're not your best friends. Maybe they are your best friends. I don't know. But yeah, she said she calls them peripheral others that you have this very large social network moving through your 40s and 50s. But then you begin to shed some of those people because you want to spend more time with those people where when you leave that engagement, you're just kind of walking on air because you feel like so well understood. You feel like you understand that friend so thoroughly. You know each other's families. You're asking questions about one another's siblings. Just that deep understanding of each other.

59:04that's the thing that we are self-selecting into more of. And I think that's beautiful. The point is to diversify that social network, though, as we age, that we will lose some people. So make sure that we're out there meeting people, new people, and keeping that social network growing a little bit, even as perhaps we're casting people off. Right. Yeah. And so that trope of the lonely older person is fortunately often not true, because it's just more discerning older person. Exactly. But I do think there are lonely older people. Yeah. So you want to make sure that you're not one of them. When you embark on retirement, your plan is to catch up on all the Netflix shows you've missed.

59:49Get something else. Because the data do suggest that being at home, watching TV, which is how a lot of older adults spend time, does not add to happiness. that if you could put yourself in a situation where you can build your social networks, get out with people, whether it's playing pickleball or having lunch or breakfast or whatever it is, just putting those habits into place where you're getting into contact with other people is just so, so valuable as we age. The data is obviously quite nascent when it comes to virtual relationships. What do we know or what do we have yet to learn when it comes to the value of virtual relationships in that context?

1:00:31Yeah, I asked Laura Carstensen about this. I was curious, a little bit of me search here, because my two best friends are in California. I'm a Chicagoan. So we text all day long, me and these two women, and about everything. But we do make a point of seeing each other at least once, maybe twice a year. And that's her point is that there's still a lot we don't know about virtual relationships, either people we might know in online communities or people who we did know in person at one point, but who were mainly text friends with at this point. She thinks it is important to have those face-to-face engagements or at least a phone call, like a quarterly or monthly phone call, she believes is enough to keep that relationship alive.

1:01:18If it's just strictly virtual, inevitably you'll lose something. So I'm a big believer in this face-to-face engagement. If you can't, if you're really close friends, just make that commitment to getting together. You come here once a year or I go there. however you choose to do it, I think that redounds to the benefit of that friendship. There's just something about being with another human being, sharing a meal or whatever the case might be, that is just so much more valuable than those texts or sort of virtual relationships that we have. Right. Well, thank you for spending this time with us.

1:01:56Where can people find you if they'd like to learn more? Thank you so much, Paul. It's been my honor. Well, people can find the book anywhere they buy books. It's called How to Retire, which I think is a clear title. I'm on Morningstar.com all the time where I do videos and write articles. I've got a bunch of model portfolios for retirement and pre-retirement, and they're free. They're part of our free site. They're just there for educational purposes. And then I do a podcast of my own with a couple of my colleagues. It's called The Long View. And so that is on any podcast platform that someone might use.

1:02:31And it's an excellent one. You've been on it. You were one of our favorite guests. Thank you so much, Paula. Oh, thank you.

1:02:41Thank you, Christine. What are three key takeaways that we got from this conversation? Key takeaway number one, retirement spending is dynamic, not static. The traditional 4 % withdrawal rule oversimplifies retirement planning. The reality is spending patterns change significantly throughout your life and throughout retirement. In your early retirement years, you're likely going to have higher discretionary spending on travel. Whereas in the later years, you might have added health care costs. Planning should account for these varying phases and include separate pots of money for different purposes.

1:03:22With his clients, I think he gives them like a travel pot. His advice is, I hope you deplete this within the next 10 years if they're retiring at 65 or something like that, because the data would suggest that we do tend to see a decline in spending as people move through retirement. It averages out to be roughly a percentage point less than the inflation rate. We see this decline, and David Blanchett's research points to this decline kind of continuing through the early 80s period. And then we see spending in many cases ticking up in the very latest years of retirement. And that's often the uninsured health care expenses, especially long term care expenses.

1:04:07That is key takeaway number one. Key takeaway number two, use a cash or bond buffer to protect against downturns. One of your biggest risks in retirement is called sequence of returns risk. And in order to protect against that, you'll need to maintain between five to eight years worth of planned withdrawals in cash and high quality bonds. This provides a safety net during market downturns and it prevents you from having to sell stocks when they're down. Some combination of cash and high quality bonds, I think, would be the main things. And my thought is for most people, something like five to eight years worth of portfolio withdrawals and investments like that can sustain you through many types of even big, bad equity market downturns.

1:04:57You'll get through okay if you have roughly that much set aside in cash and bonds. Finally, cue takeaway number three. Consider a phased retirement instead of a hard stop. Rather than viewing retirement as binary, meaning you're either working full time or you're working zero, you know, it's either 40 hours or zero hours, right? A very binary, black or white, zero or one type of a thing. Rather than doing that, consider a gradual transition. Christine refers to this as a phased retirement. The issue with phased retirement is sometimes people interpret it too literally that they think it's like, okay, now I go from 40 hours to 30 hours or 20.

1:05:41And maybe that's what you do. Or maybe it's just that you have some aspects of your job that you really liked, but you do not wish to continue on with that employer. But maybe you just want to carry forward those one or two or three things that you really love doing in your job in some other fashion. Maybe it's something that's completely different from your day job. But the idea is that in those years leading up to retirement, you just start taking some mental notes of like, that was a great day. Those are three key takeaways from this conversation with Christine Benz. Thank you so much for being part of the Afford Anything community.

1:06:23If you enjoyed today's episode, please do three things. First and foremost, subscribe to our newsletter, affordanything.com slash newsletter. We also have a free ebook. It's called Escape. You can download that at affordanything.com slash escape. It's all about how to escape the nine to five grind. Again, that's affordanything.com slash escape. Second, share this episode with your friends, your family, your coworkers. Share this with the people in your life. Spread the message of having strong financial health and reaching financial independence. And third, please leave us a review in your favorite podcast playing app, whether that's Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other app that you enjoy.

1:07:08And of course, make sure you're following this show on every podcast playing app that you use. And come find us on YouTube. We're there at youtube.com slash afford anything. Thank you again for being an afforder. This is the Afford Anything podcast. My name is Paula Pant, and I'll meet you in the next episode.