Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375)

18 Mar 2024 · 50 min

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Podcast Summary: Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375)

Podcast Title: Capital Allocators Episode Title: Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375) Host: Ted Seides Guest: Jonathan Tepper, CIO of Prevatt Capital

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Ted Seides interviews Jonathan Tepper, the Chief Investment Officer of Prevatt Capital, a long-only firm focused on investing in high-quality global monopolies. The conversation covers Jonathan's unique upbringing, his career path, and the investment philosophy behind Prevatt Capital, which he founded in 2020.

Key Themes

  • Background and Education: Jonathan shares insights into his upbringing as the child of Presbyterian missionaries in Spain, exposing him to diverse experiences and challenges.
  • Investment Philosophy: The firm employs a quality and value-based approach to investing in a concentrated portfolio of global monopolies.
  • Lessons from "The Myth of Capitalism": Jonathan's book explores the implications of monopolies, their impact on capitalism, and their significance in his investment strategy.

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Detailed Notes

Introductory Remarks

  • Host Introduction: Ted Seides introduces the podcast, emphasizing the mission to explore capital allocation through interviews with industry leaders.
  • Guest Background: Jonathan is recognized as the author of "The Myth of Capitalism" and discusses his investment firm, Prevatt Capital.

Jonathan's Early Life

  • Childhood in Spain: Jonathan recounts his upbringing in Madrid’s impoverished neighborhood, characterized by high crime rates and drug abuse.
  • Involvement in Social Work: Jonathan and his family engaged in helping heroin addicts, which shaped their understanding of empathy and community service.
  • Educational Framework: Discussed his unconventional schooling and self-directed education through extensive reading.

Prevatt Capital and Investment Strategy

  • Founding Prevatt Capital: Launched in 2020, focusing on quality and value investing in concentrated positions of monopolistic companies.
  • Investment Approach:
  • Quality and Value: Invest in companies that generate free cash flow and have sustainable competitive advantages.
  • Concentration: Maintaining a portfolio of 10-20 carefully selected stocks to maximize returns.
  • Market Positioning: Jonathan elaborates on the importance of identifying natural monopolies and avoiding those that are artificially created through regulation.

Insights on Monopolies

  • Types of Monopolies:
  • Natural Monopolies: Those that exist due to product delivery requirements, e.g., utility companies.
  • Artificial Monopolies: Created through regulatory frameworks that can be detrimental to consumer welfare.
  • Investment Criteria: Jonathan avoids firms with excessive regulatory advantages that do not provide real value to customers.

Portfolio Management

  • Concentration vs. Diversification: Strives for a balance of concentrated investments with some industry and geographic diversification.
  • Position Sizing and Diligence:
  • Initiates smaller positions to allow for further investment if a company’s stock price declines.
  • Ongoing analysis of management decisions and market conditions to adapt the portfolio.

Lessons Learned

  • Management Assessment: Emphasizes the importance of understanding the motivations and decisions of company management.
  • Portfolio Adjustments: Addresses mistakes involving management misjudgments and the importance of being flexible with strategies.

Closing Thoughts

  • Life as an Investor: Jonathan reflects on the joys of investing as a lifelong pursuit and the importance of relationships with team members and investors.
  • Advice for Future Generations: Encourages the nurturing of children in loving environments and the importance of education about capital.

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Key Takeaways

  • Jonathan Tepper's life experiences have profoundly shaped his approach to investing, emphasizing empathy and understanding social phenomena.
  • Prevatt Capital aims to identify and invest in companies that not only have strong financial profiles but also contribute positively to society.
  • The conversation sheds light on the complexities of navigating investments in monopolistic environments and the need for ethical considerations in finance.

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Additional Resources

  • Website: [Capital Allocators](https://capitalallocators.com)
  • Follow Ted Seides: [Twitter](https://twitter.com/tseides?lang=en) | [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedseides/)
  • Prevatt Capital: Explore more about Jonathan's investment strategies and philosophy.

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This document encapsulates the essence of the podcast episode, highlighting Jonathan Tepper's unique perspective on investing and the lessons learned from his journey.

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Transcript

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0:01Capital Allocators is brought to you by my friends at WCM Investment Management. To outperform the markets, you have to do something differently from others. In my 30-something years investing in managers, there may be no one I've come across who does that as clearly and as well as WCM. I've seen it up close as an investor in their international growth strategy for the last five years. WCM is a global equity investment manager majority owned by its employees. They believe that being based on the West Coast, away from the influence of Wall Street groupthink provides them with the freedom to live out their investment team's core values, think different, and get better.

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2:32Hello, I'm Ted Seides, and this is Capital Allocators. This show is an open exploration of the people and process behind capital allocation. Through conversations with leaders in the money game, we learn how these holders of the keys to the kingdom allocate their time and their capital. You can join our mailing list and access premium content at CapitalAllocators.com. All opinions expressed by TED and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of capital allocators or their firms. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

3:11Clients of capital allocators or podcast guests may maintain positions in securities discussed on this podcast. My guest on today's show is Jonathan Tepper, the chief investment officer of Privat Capital, a$450 million long-only firm he founded in 2020 that takes a quality and value approach to own a concentrated portfolio of global monopolies. Jonathan is also the author of The Myth of Capitalism, a book we discussed alongside his career path on the show five years ago. That conversation is replayed in the feed. Our conversation this time around bookends our prior discussion, covering Jonathan's unique upbringing and education on one end, and his creation of Pravatt to apply the lessons from the myth of capitalism on the other.

4:01As a disclaimer, I so took to Jonathan when we first met that I've been an advisor to him and Pravatt Capital since launch, and I'm an investor in the strategy. Before we get going, this week, it's time to spread the word about a new children's book written by Sarah Samuels from NEPC called Braving Our Savings, alongside a movement she started to promote it called 30 Seconds of Bravery. And Sarah's here to tell you more. So Sarah, what's this project all about? It's really about a few really important themes that I want to spread the word about. One is that the power of capital is tremendous and we can do lots of good things with this capital that we're all stewards of.

4:42The other is the importance of role models and education. And then finally being brave. So those are pretty generic, but these are things that I've spent the better part of my career learning more about. And I've decided that it's time to give everything that I've learned away. And the way that I'm doing that is I've written a children's book and started a movement. So how'd you come about the idea of writing a children's book? So I really shouldn't be successful in this industry. The odds were not in my favor. I came from a family that had generations-long cycles of making ends meet and really a corroding thread of fear handed down for hundreds of years.

5:22We didn't have any ends. We didn't have any connections, very little in the way of financial education. I started my career as an administrative assistant at Wellington Management Company. I was a state school kid with a German degree. And so by all measures, that really wasn't setting me up for success in the investment industry. But here I am today, a partner overseeing over$1.5 trillion in capital. And I really believe that other children should have the opportunity to have this life-changing experience of learning about money and entering the investment industry. The turning point in my career was about 18 months into my career when I realized that the woman who I had admired named Jean Hines, who was a very talented investor who commanded the room, who was young, who was super successful, she started as an administrative assistant as well.

6:10The light bulb went off. I believed that I could. I had tangible role model that I could follow. And I went and got education. So that's what this book is trying to do. I taught my two daughters earlier last year how to invest. We did stock research together. They entered their own trades. And my six-year-old came down after she bought her trade the next morning and said, Mama, I'm going to make my own lunch today. I'm an investor now. And I saw that these children really are primed and hungry for this type of information. But financial literacy is not something that's widely required at public schools.

6:46It really needs to be done at home, and it's not always. So you've started to get a bunch of really interesting endorsers of this book. So how's that all happened? Well, it's been really heartening, because I've put this message out into the world without much of an agenda or a plan. It's been a bit of a leap of faith that if we put something like this into the universe, By the way, the vision is that we want to inspire and teach children of all backgrounds how to invest and be brave. Put that message into the world, asked a few people if they would support it, and they jumped in, right in with both feet.

7:21And so we have some amazing endorsers, including yours truly, Ted. We have a famous former poker player in Annie Duke. We have the professional sports community. So Alex Rodriguez and John Jones from the New England Patriots and Kyle Arrington, who's a Super Bowl champ and powerhouses, industry powerhouses like NASDAQ. So this has been really heartening. You mentioned bravery and this movement, 30 seconds of bravery. How is that tied into the book? It's tied into the book because you can't be brave without doing something that you're scared of. You can't be brave without being scared. And so how many times have any of us felt scared to do something or take a risk or be uncomfortable and decided not to do that thing?

8:06So one thing that I guide people earlier on in their career is just do the hard thing for 30 seconds. It doesn't need to be an entire day or a lifetime of doing the hard thing. Just ask for the promotion, ask for the raise, make the change, whether it's in your personal life or professional. And I guarantee you it'll change the path of your life, that 30 seconds. So I can count to about three or four examples in my life where it's changed. How can we help you spread the word? Yes. Well, my call to action is to join the movement by embracing this idea of 30 seconds of bravery. It's to buy a kid a book or donate a book.

8:45And more information can be found on our website, which is 30secondsofbravery.org. and to be brave yourself and share the knowledge that you have about the investment industry with that next generation or with people who don't know as much as you do. There are lots of ways to be brave and to lift others up. It could be your time, talent, or treasure, but I really encourage you to get involved. My ultimate goal is to give the book away. So I've purchased 2 ,500 books to give to nonprofits and children who really need this education. and any profits that we make on book sales will be recycled into giving more books away.

9:22Well, fantastic. Thanks so much for spreading the word about Braving Our Savings and 30 Seconds of Bravery. Thank you, Ted. Please enjoy my conversation with Jonathan Tepper. Jonathan, great to be with you. Thank you so much, Ted. It's great to be with you. It's been five years since you were last on the show. You dove in a little bit with your early childhood background. And I thought it'd be fun to flesh that out a little bit, and then we'll jump into what you've been doing. So take me back to how did your family end up in Spain? My parents were Presbyterian missionaries, and my parents actually wanted to work with university students, so be a university chaplain.

10:04But they were also penniless missionaries, which means that they ended up settling in one of the cheapest neighborhoods in Madrid for rent. That was San Blas, which I don't think they knew at the time, but it had the highest rate of crime and juvenile violence and heroin use in all of Europe. The university students weren't particularly interested in what my father and mother had to say, and they were seeing all this need in the streets around them. And so they ended up helping heroin addicts get to rehab centers, and there wasn't almost anything in Madrid at the time. So they were generally sending them north or south to Santander, Vitoria.

10:35They knew that they wanted to start a center after about two years because there was just so much need, but they didn't even know how to start it. That wasn't even their background. One addict came in and started sharing an apartment with Lindsay McKenzie, who was an Australian missionary. And then he brought his friends in, eight recovering addicts in an apartment. The neighbors weren't thrilled. So then they had to go find a farm and then it filled up with 30 men overnight. The center just grew almost exponentially after that, given the need. But my brothers and I would go hand out flyers in the neighborhood.

11:02We'd go to like the gypsy camp or we'd go to the park, talk to people while they were shooting up and give them these little flyers. You'd imagine four blonde-haired boys, eight, nine, ten, going out doing this. And they became like older brothers to us. In the 1980s, AIDS started out essentially in terms of public consciousness as a gay disease in the US. But in Spain, everyone was sharing needles. 70 % of the AIDS cases were heroin addicts. And then they estimated that between 40 and 50 % of the addicts were infected in Madrid. And so those were our best friends growing up. And then And many of them started dying in the late 80s, early 90s.

11:37And so it was a very unusual childhood. And friends have told me that they think it was child abuse to have children be involved in the work. But we just thought it was an enormous adventure. And it only seemed odd later getting to college where people ask about my background and I realized it wasn't in any way normal. What was your education like? Because you don't think of communities like that as having good schools. We went to a microscopic and truly microscopic missionary school for some years where there were like five to six people per class. So they tended to put two classes together. It was third and fourth and things like that.

12:08But my parents loved books and had an enormous library at home, had encyclopedias, the world book encyclopedias and tons of natural graphics. So my brothers and I essentially were self-educated in a way where we had worked our way through these by the time we were 10 or 11. And then as my brother went off to college, my older brother, David, he would bring his college textbooks back over Christmas and summer breaks and give them to me. And so I ended up studying all his books. So I ended up taking 10 advanced placement tests to skip about two years of college by the time I went in. It was an extremely schizophrenic childhood in the sense that you had the life on the street with heroin addicts and then this hyper-literate environment at home where my father had what he called his pontifications, where he would provide footnotes and marginalia to theology, philosophy, history, and things like that.

12:51What were the other kids at your school like? They were generally very bright because obviously everyone tended to be bilingual, but they weren't necessarily highly academically motivated. I think if you go back to the historical missionaries like Henry Luce, who founded Time Magazine, went off to Yale, Pearl Buck was a Nobel Prize winner. They do very well in terms of who's who. If you look at rankings in terms of academically, over time, I think that's probably gone down a little. And maybe, I don't know if it has to do with the mix of what denominations or intellectual backgrounds send missionaries.

13:20But my best friends scored very highly on the SAT, went off to Annapolis, West Point, University of Chicago, and so on. But these are like classes of six people. And my mother started homeschooling us for two years. A lot of growing up, you think about protecting your kids against bad people in childhood, drug addicts. What was that like, that balance of fear and danger compared to, you mentioned these became your best friends? My parents' view was that addicts might stab each other over heroin. They weren't going to stab us. We were not a danger to them. We weren't going to do anything to them.

13:51We didn't even have all that much money to steal. We were basically just almost mascots for the older addicts. and became like their younger brothers. And there was a French cartoon called Lucky Luke. The villains were the Dalton brothers, which is the Dalton gang out West. And so our nicknames in the neighborhood for the four boys in descending height was the Dalton brothers. We were more just a source of amusement than anything. But I think the thing that protected us was that everyone knew that my parents were there to help them and look after them. And so that meant that they wanted to look after us.

14:20When the AIDS epidemic ran through the neighborhood, what was that like at the time? It hit Madrid a little later than it did San Francisco or New York. People started getting a lot of the diagnoses in the mid-80s. And then the average incubation period is generally about five years. It can go up to 14 years. So it was really in the late 80s, early 90s that the deaths started happening around us. And the peak of deaths in Spain was 95. And at first, some people were so ashamed to have it that people were HIV positive, but you didn't know that. And so it was only later, as numbers started growing, that my parents were encouraging everyone in the drug rehab center to get tested and then found out that most of the addicts were HIV positive.

14:59And then they had a conference and brought doctors in. And then my childhood in high school really revolved around an enormous amount of studying, but going with my mother and father to Ramon y Cajal, which is one of the largest hospitals in Madrid, where they had the main infectious diseases ward for AIDS. As you described, if 70 % of the community eventually got AIDS and back then it was sort of a death sentence. How did you and your family deal with the grief that came from that? It was very strange, but almost at the same time, my youngest brother, Timothy, who I was very, very close to, he was five years younger, died in a car accident in 1991.

15:32And our friends had already started dying. I certainly as a child thought bad things or accidents or things that happened to other people, and you're going to live this innocent life and get through it. And then I realized terrible things happened to everyone. And I remember at my brother's funeral thinking, we are the other people. Someone's feeling sorry for us. So it made me much more empathetic to all the pain and loss around us. And it made me treasure life a lot more. And Raul Gasto, the first addict, and Battelle, who was like the older brother to everyone and to us, certainly. He died in 1995.

16:01Khamri, who started the drug center in Italy, he would send me all the Italian books, which is how I became obsessed with Italian literature. He died in 1996. As my father once said, AIDS and obviously any sort of terminal illness makes you softer and more empathetic and it makes you want to provide more love. And I think that's the lesson that my parents had. When you went off to college, you were coming from a completely different upbringing, imagine, than anybody else there. What was that like when you jump into college in the US? I can't claim to have been a well-adjusted student. I was certainly probably socially very maladjusted.

16:35My neighborhood in Madrid had about a quarter million people. Spaniards would have dinner very late at night, and then you go for your paseo around midnight. And arriving at Chapel Hill, where the business is closed at 5 p.m., while I'm still waking up for my sister, that. It took me quite a while to get used to. But then also I realized that I had a very different life and childhood and a lot of cultural references than young people. And being young and foolish, you expect the world to adapt to you rather than adapting to it. And so I think it took me some time to find my feet there. But I ended up becoming very good friends with a lot of professors.

17:02I was very nerdy and bookish, but really ended up developing a great community, many of whom I'm still in touch with. How did you apply all of this independent learning that you had done over the years into a college setting? When I would go to the hospital, Ramón y Cajal, there was one of these great moments in life that I never forget was going in. And I remember coming out once, because you see it on the way out, not the way in, actually, is a quote of Ramón y Cajal, who was the first Spaniard to win a Nobel Prize for his work in neuroscience. He mapped out the neurons under a microscope, but he had the quote, and he said, every man can become a sculptor of his own mind if he sets himself to task.

17:36And we were just staring at it for minutes and thinking, Is this true? Can it be true? And then finally, I thought, no, it's going to be true. I will sculpt my mind. And I realized if I could learn in a small school and being homeschooled by my mother, and we could read through books, I could do whatever I wanted with my mind. That really was what got me to get my brother to send me his books. It got me to go dig a lot of things myself. And then when I got to college, because I'd had all these credits, I was unable to go do a lot of work with professors one-on-one, write two honors theses and things like that.

18:03Ramonica Dechal's quote, in a way, has been the North Star for me for years. What did you decide to do after college? I ended up getting a scholarship to go to Oxford. I was a Rhodes Scholar. So I spent three years there. I had done economics and history in undergrad. I felt economics was in a way too mathematical and theoretical and not really tied to the real world in many ways. I felt modern history is a study of what's actually happened and might be more interesting and entertaining. For financial markets and investing, I think history is actually a great way to look at things where you can look at previous crises, previous company histories and things like that.

18:36So I thought that was very useful. I did three years at Oxford and got my degree. From your time at Oxford and the last time you were on the show, and we can replay that in the feed, we talked about a bunch of your early career and then your macroeconomic research business variant perception. And at the time, you had just written The Myth of Capitalism. We'll have that story in the show. It was unclear what would happen with the book. So why don't we jump to that point in time, the book comes out, and what happened afterwards? I had worked on the myth of capitalism. First, I was working on the ideas, essentially the ideas behind it, without even knowing that there was a book there.

19:09I just thought this was a very interesting question. Why are corporate profit margins so high? Why are some companies much more profitable than others? And so it was through the process of digging into that that I realized that it's not the only reason, but it's certainly a very important reason, was the rise in industrial concentration in the US. So the rise of monopolies, duopolies, and oligopolies. The book, Myth of Capitalism, was meant to be a look at the public policy and history of this with some economics, but not really looking at the investment aspects of that. I was writing all this text, but I was also, whenever I'd find a company, I'd put it into a database, and then I'd start looking through who are the holders of these companies.

19:42And I started noticing something that a lot of the investors I most admired and who have great track records were owners of these companies. Some companies, I think, are slightly parasitic where they merge to end up having higher market power, and then they raise prices. But others essentially have these critical functions within industries, and you'd have to invent them if they didn't exist. And so I started thinking these companies consistently generate free cash flow and tend to have higher returns on capital and are owned by people who I admire. And I thought this has got to be a better pool to fish in in terms of finding, for example, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

20:16Farmers and speculators invented it because they needed a way to hedge out their weed exposure or purchase, whether it's growing it or buying it to create cereal or bread or whatever it might be. So there's a natural need for this thing. And absent regulation or merger, the Chicago Board of Trade and Share Mercantile Exchange, it exists. Or you look at booking. If I want to travel anywhere, the booking basically acts as a middleman, but because it provides tremendous economies of scope that benefit the consumer and the hotels that need to have their rooms found. So these were non-parasitic organizations that provide a critical service and economies of scope.

20:46And so that was really the investing genesis. So I built the database. And then I started writing another book essentially that will never see the latter day or be published, which is what are the investment implications? We've then gone away and also mapped out the value chains and profit pools in dozens of industries. And I think what you really want to do is find companies that sit at a part of the value chain that adds significant value to customers and suppliers. So they have a natural reason for existing. You've mapped out these companies, you have a database, and then you start talking about investment implications.

21:21I just formed a money manager to invest in them. What was that original thought process of how you take that information that these businesses exist and turn it into an investment strategy? There are two approaches one could take, which is a long, short approach where you buy the good companies and short the bad ones. The other one is essentially having a much more long-only approach, which is a sort of long-term investing, thoughtful approach. The short side, I've learned an enormous amount from my friend, John Hempton, who I deeply admire. I've spent weeks with him talking from early in the morning to late at night.

21:49There's no way I can compete with what John does on the short side. And I think that there's a variety of problems with shorting, not that it doesn't work, but rather that you can get short squeezed and there's a lot of hype. And often now with high borrow costs and all hedge funds shorting the same names, you end up paying a lot more than you would have previously. So you're running a negative of carry game where time's against you. So I started thinking the thing that would, one, compound money to high rate, two, avoid permanent loss of capital and significant drawdowns. And then three, most importantly, is let me and the investors sleep at night.

22:21So if you can't do that and you can't stick through a strategy, then it's going to blow up at some stage. And I thought this, to my mind, owning very high quality companies, so a quality plus value approach where you're getting paid to own because these companies generate cash that they can dividend back or they can buy shares back thoughtfully, then time is on your side. You're running a positive carry game where you get paid to own them. And then even if very bad things happen, so for example, the market was down an enormous amount in 2022, we own booking. They bought back over 7 % of their shares.

22:49And so having that cash means that even crises are opportunities. So let's break down how you go about that. What is the pool of companies that you're fishing in? I started out with the US and then I went to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Broadly, globally, I think there's between 500 to 600 companies and some markets are obviously a little harder to invest in than others internationally. That's the broad pool. It doesn't mean that all these companies are equally attractive. So for example, just due to the size, the weight to price considerations, aggregates and cement tend to be local monopolies.

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23:21You just don't ship these things hundreds of miles. And so if you have the quarry, you'll have that local monopoly. The problem is, of course, it's relatively capital intensive. It's relatively cyclical. And then as has happened in recent years, you do have merger waves in the cement industry. And so you then end up with a highly capital intensive cyclical industry with loads of debt. And so it's deeply unattractive, except at perhaps bottom points in the cycle. When you start narrowing it down, it gets narrowed down a little bit further, but that's the area that we've mapped out. You talked last time we had on the show about a natural monopoly.

23:52How did you decide which ones you wanted efficient? If you read an economics textbook, they talk about natural monopolies, which would be things like power utilities, water utilities, and it makes no sense to lay down two sets of pipes or two sets of copper wires. You tend to have one company and then to make sure that the consumer doesn't get gouged, you have a regulated rate of return and the regulator sets that. Those are natural monopolies. I think of natural monopoly a little broader, which is to say, does the delivery of the product dictate that there be few players? Going back to the financial exchanges, you don't want to be transacting on dozens of exchanges.

24:22You want the highest amount of liquidity and that's why you end up with one exchange that does one contract. That has a natural reason for existing, and that's what I call natural monopoly, which is much broader than the economics textbook. The unnatural monopolies, I think, are pernicious and bad for consumers. Those are essentially ones where absent excessive regulation or mergers to monopoly, you would have competition. My entire book was written against these, where the regulators and antitrust have allowed all sorts of mergers that should never have happened. Then there's excessive regulation.

24:52I talked about the McCarran-Ferguson Act with insurance, where you can't sell insurance contracts across state lines. And so the US spends more on healthcare and medicine than almost any other country with worse outcomes, because you have some states with two insurers having about 90 % market share. Some like Moody's or S &P, where to get an NRSRO designation, if you don't have it, you can't rate. But Altman, Z-Score, KMV, distance default, we could have algorithms rating stuff. It's just crazy to think that these exist, but it's because of law. How do you think about investing in that type of monopoly where it's law that's created this unnatural situation where it could be good today, but it could change in the future?

25:31We don't invest. And I think that these are not great companies and people often tout some of these. And you have some like Transdime, for example, which relies on FAA certification and are pretty open about they triple the pricing when they purchase a little part and they raise prices over 6 % per year, regardless of what the underlying cost of producing the part is. Obviously, it's provided a good return to investors, but I think that's slightly parasitic. What we're trying to do is to find companies that add value to clients and that have a natural reason for existing. That steady demand from customers creates the cash flow, which rewards the investor.

26:02How do you think about the other case of the large technology companies where there have been mergers that you could say maybe they shouldn't have happened, but today they command such a huge market share and there's always the risk of something breaking that up? That's a major problem for bad monopolies or monopolies through merger is that eventually they can either be undone or regulation might be passed to make sure that they don't capture those excessive profits. And it's quite interesting. I reviewed an enormous amount of academic literature on monopolies and returns, and many of them show that you do get higher returns, but some studies show that you don't.

26:36And partly is that if you're buying, let's say, a pure play, you're getting an undiversifiable risk. And to the extent that you have supernormal profits with a pure play, when that turns against you, the money that you make on the rate card or your profit margin goes down tremendously. While technological obsolescence or changes to an industry are present in any investment, They're certainly more present if you're overpaying for something that might change radically. Once you've mapped out this landscape, how do you do your homework on the companies that you potentially want to invest in? We have four analysts plus myself, so five at the firm.

27:09Arguably, we might be overstaffed relative to our assets, which are approaching$450 million. But we don't have to hire more as we get bigger. I thought it was important to have the full team before we had whatever assets might justify having this great team of analysts. But we will spend months on industries and companies. We'll map out the value chains and profit pools in great depth. We'll go away and read half a dozen books on any industry. I'll go away and read hundreds of news articles, obviously read all the financial filings, whether they're SEC or other regulatory agencies that companies often have to file with.

27:41We will do our write-ups on the industry, write-ups on the company, and then we'll start talking to management once we feel that we have a good grasp of exactly what's going on. Management is critical. It's interesting. My parents did social work. And once I met a great investor who's essentially unknown, but with a terrific track record. And he told me, he said, well, I'm in the business of social work. And I thought this was a little shocking. He's clearly an enormous moneymaker. And he said, ultimately, investment funds and companies are groups of people. And they're motivated by a vision. They're motivated by a leader.

28:10And that's why I think it's critical to understand who is managing the capital allocation and the money of the shareholder. And so you can write the best write-up you want, make the most amazing model that's accurate down to the penny. But if management goes out and blows all their cash on a terrible acquisition, they just destroyed a tremendous amount of value. So getting to know the people who hold the purse strings and have the vision for what the company is doing is critical. Once you've decided that something is a candidate, how do you decide when you put something in the portfolio? What we're really trying to do, and I think all value investing ultimately is trying to do, is to buy a company below its intrinsic value.

28:46And so there are two ways that we try to approach this problem. A starting point is looking within our database at what's down the most over the last year. And it may be perfectly well-priced today. Maybe it was egregiously priced a year ago. But often it's telling us that people are overreacting to some short-term news. And if we can become comfortable that it's a temporary phenomenon. And so when the fund launched in May 2020, the bottom in the market was in March. But people were still very fearful of COVID and no one was traveling. And so we felt that we were able to buy booking close to a 10 % normalized free cash flow yield with a terrific CEO, Glenn Fogel.

29:19That was an example of finding these things that are down an enormous amount where we think people will travel again. Humans want to travel. Travel has tended to grow at a GDP plus rate and booking can do so at attractive returns on capital and high free cash flow margins. The other way to do it is sometimes great companies don't sell off that much. And that actually I would say is probably the norm for high quality companies is you don't tend to get too many opportunities to buy them cheaply. But there we have back of the envelope calculations for all of these companies. And then we can see what has the biggest discount to our back of the envelope calculation.

29:50And then we'll start doing a lot more digging to see, is that at a big discount? Once you've decided that a business that you want to own is in this privileged position and you like the management team and you get a reasonable enough price, what do you do in your ongoing diligence that might change that thesis? This has happened with a couple of companies that we've owned. Sometimes we've misjudged management. So we did own a financial exchange and then they went out and spent half a billion dollars on a crypto exchange. And they surprisingly wrote down the acquisition the same quarter that they made it.

30:23To me, that was a spectacular misuse of capital. You wouldn't be writing it down if it had value. And then furthermore, if the crypto is an extraordinary place to invest, and I'll leave that to the listeners to decide, but why would they not decide to build this themselves? Which also makes me question the use of cash. So often we've had unpleasant surprises like that where management, you think you have a good sense and they might tell you one thing on the call, certainly when you're talking to them, that doesn't really fit what they do later. What are some of the other things that you've seen that caused you to change your mind?

30:54One of my favorite books is The Curse of the Mogul. It's just a terrific read on media. It was written by a former Goldman banker who was teaching finance. And he was pointing out that media itself tends to lead towards uneconomic decision-making, which is to say that whether it's the arts or music can't be judged on financial metrics. And so therefore, a lot of capital gets destroyed in pursuit of acquisitions and growth. And we did buy a media company where the CEO, as it turned out in the conference calls, was much more interested in expanding that empire. And then I was kicking myself thinking, I tell all the analysts to go read The Curse of the Mobile, and then I'm ignoring it briefly.

31:26What does your portfolio look like at any point in time? We want to be very concentrated, so 10 to 20 stocks, but we've really averaged sort of 16 over the life of the fund. And part of that is that if you have too many stocks and one doubles, let's say you own 50, it's doing very little for your overall rate of return. And if you have 20 stocks, on the other hand, and one doubles, it can meaningfully contribute to your yearly return. And we like also to feel that we know our companies very well. And I think it's much easier to do that with a smaller number of stocks than it is with too many. So we have about 16 stocks.

31:57And then we're trying to do something paradoxical, which is we want maximum concentration, but we also want maximum diversification. And some funds are essentially agnostic as to what industries they might invest in. I think it's important to have some industry diversification and some geographic diversification, not by listing, but by the source of the revenue. I've seen many funds, for example, that are almost entirely consumer staples in the quality space or entirely tech in quality or growth. And ultimately, you're basically making a bet on the NASDAQ or on the consumer staples and allocators want to pay for alpha, not beta.

32:30And if you can replicate that factor that they're essentially exposing themselves to an underlying basis, it makes very little sense. So I think that having some diversification by industry and geography is critical to make sure that you're not getting carried away with any one factor and providing you with multiple streams of potential returns rather than just one. How do you think about position sizing? We rarely start with the absolute position size that we might want only because often we're buying things that for short-term reasons are either unliked and might go down further. And if you've already put on the full position size, you can't buy more.

33:03We always want to be able to buy more. It's a terrific book called The Art of Execution written by a man who ran a fund of funds. And he went and looked through his own managers, which ones did well. And the ones that did well were ones that when stocks went down, cut them or added to them. But if you do nothing at all, you're going to get worse returns. We will only double down once. If you start doing more than that, you're essentially following the Martingale strategy, which is also known as gambler's ruin. And it's always the house that wins, not the gambler. And so we want to make sure that we can thoughtfully add.

33:32And we've done that during COVID. Travel had some trouble. For example, 22, Russia invaded Ukraine and interest rates were going up. Oil was going up. A lot of high quality European names were on sale and we didn't buy the exact bottom. And so being able to have the ability to buy more was very advantageous in terms of the ultimate IRR for these positions. In addition to buying more on the dip, how do you think about ads and trims along the way? Our median size has been about 6 % per position. Some positions have been larger. Partly, they've had slightly higher IRRs and we wanted to allocate more capital to them, but also they performed tremendously well.

34:06And so they've ended up reaching 14, 15 % of the portfolio. And it's not even, it's not like every stock's going up that much. Obviously, they wouldn't get that big relative to the other positions, but I do think returns tend to have a create a distribution. And I think as a manager, if you immediately start trimming a winner, you're going to have worse returns, just mathematically. We do have tolerance for having a few larger positions as they perform. But the one thing that we're trying to do is to not overtrade, we trade very little, is to optimize the portfolio, which is rather than if money comes in the beginning of the month, add pro rata across the board, we have an internal IRR for each stock that we calculate.

34:42Now, I'm sure that we're getting that wrong, but at least it's a useful exercise to go through. And we try to allocate the most capital to the ones with the highest expected IRR. What are some of the names or industries or areas where you found something attractive that you think the general universe of investors don't see as attractive as you do? I started looking at a lot of the quality funds just to see one, what's out there, what are allocators investing in? And it's always good to know your competition. Often we'll see companies that they might own, and then we'll see who the holders are.

35:12I found that basically you can explain most quality funds with three sectors. So they're running essentially tech, consumer staples with some healthcare. And it's a barbell strategy generally between tech and consumer staples, which provides it quite a lot of stability. But you can basically buy XLP, XLK, and XLV at 15 bibs and replicate with about 95 % correlation, a lot of these quality funds. So there are other industries outside of those three that are very interesting. And we don't restrict ourselves to those three. For example, we own Norbremse, which is a German rail brakes company. And globally, it's basically for the last century been a duopoly between Wabtec in the US and Norbremse in Germany producing rail brakes.

35:50And there's reasons why entry into the industry is very difficult. These are absolutely mission critical pieces and you don't want rail crashes. In China, they had produced some of their own and then ended up tightening the rules on that. So there's a reason why there are two companies that do this very well and have done so for a long time. And And then you have long-lived contracts where you don't swap out your breaks for quite some time. What do the economics of a business like that look like? Their returns on capital have been in the high teens over the last decade. They have one controlling family.

36:19The shareholder died and his kids have been there. They were about to do a bad acquisition. Didn't go through. Thank God. They've replaced the CEO. But broadly, you're dealing with slightly below 15 % operating margins and high teens returns on capital. And this is a business that is an industrial business. It's not to say that it doesn't have any cyclicality, but I do think that having a slightly lumpier but higher earnings per share, free cash flow per share is better than having a very stable lower one. And I think there's a preference often to have these very stable ones and to avoid anything that's slightly cyclical.

36:51You mentioned in that example, a CEO who almost did an acquisition that you didn't like. How did you manage your position through that period of time until the CEO got replaced? Well, that predated our involvement and the new one certainly doesn't appear to want to make any ill thought out acquisitions. But this is a problem that I think affects almost all investors. And Chris Hennon, I was just trying to get Airbus not to make a cybersecurity one for political reasons in France. I think it's something that investors have to be very wary of. Generally, either transformative acquisitions or totally unrelated acquisitions tend to destroy value.

37:23And I think that it's best to find companies that can reinvest in their own business at incremental rates and do well. So having a long runway for growth. What are some of the other examples of things that you'd like that you think other people that invest in the space might not pay attention to? One area that we really like is food distribution. I mentioned booking and the idea of middlemen who are providing tremendous value to the supplier and to the consumer. And so middlemen perform a function that provides economies of scope. So people tend to think about economies of scale, where you have ASML with an enormous amount of sunk R &D costs into the machines, or you have Boeing, where you have a global do Apple in airplanes because it's extremely capital intensive.

38:03Whereas the middlemen, interestingly, quite often are relatively capital light. And then they tend to have tons of producers on one side and tons of consumers on the other, and you'd almost have to invent them. And so we like food distribution in part because restaurants could have 50 suppliers bringing them ingredients every day. It doesn't make a lot of sense. They want one truck showing up, giving them their ingredients. Those are very high-end restaurants. It might be a little different. People want to pay up for ingredients that come from far away. Broadly, this is an industry that provides tremendous value to smaller restaurants.

38:32And then you obviously have all the people producing the food and the ingredients and things like that, that don't want to have 20 ,000 or 10 ,000 restaurants as customers. And so the middleman role is essential. How do you work with your team? And in particular, your brother David has joined you from the beginning. And sometimes people look at that as not a good thing to have a sibling working with you. I suspect that a lot of that came from the Madoff fraud, where obviously you had an entire family and brothers working together. But I think it's ironic that if you look at academic research, family-run owner-operator businesses tend to outperform.

39:07And if you look historically at banks and brokerages, they tended to be family-run and even investment funds like the Davis funds. Family, I think, can be a very strong thing where it gives you a longer timeframe to look at it. You're working with people you trust. And so it's now turned into a bad thing in the investing industry when we're actually trying to go find companies that have this stability. So I think it's a little strange, but my brother, David, he's a genius. He taught himself calculus and trigonometry on his own in his early teens. And then he graduated high science mathematics and had a degree in accounting, worked for Arthur Anderson.

39:37And then interestingly, spent a couple of years working with my parents running businesses. The drug rehab center is totally free. I know all my friends were running businesses. My brothers and I used to work in them. So my brothers run and operated businesses. And he and I have just talked about investing for two decades together. He's much more of a long-term buy and hold investor. He's held positions for 20 years. I can't claim to have owned any stock for 20 years. I'm long-term, but not that long-term. And so I thought it would just be terrific to work with someone who I rate their intellect, know their character, and he knows his accounting inside out.

40:08And it's just a terrific partner to work with. How does that work alongside the rest of the people on the team? What I try to do is to insulate the analysts from any involvement with the operational side of the business, which is I want them looking at stocks and looking at industries. I also want them to have the freedom to spend two, three months on an industry and company. With the team, we have multiple meetings a week that are brief. We'll update each other on our work. They don't have to produce a report or an email or anything on a weekly basis. And then when they do produce it, it's very high quality.

40:37And one thing that we try to do is to share the write-ups and the industry work and even thought pieces on themes, whether it's the role of a middleman or other ones we've worked on with investors. We know that our allocators who've invested in us as family offices and endowments are not trying to front run us or to double down on positions. And I think a competitive advantage of a fund is to have great LPs. And if you have LPs who have a long timeframe in mind, then you can do long-term investing in the fund. If you have LPs who have a short timeframe in mind, there's no way that you're going to succeed as a manager doing long-term investing.

41:13What have you learned about being a portfolio manager now a couple of years in that you didn't realize you needed to know when you started? One of the main things is obviously if you're an analyst, you tend to fall in love with individual positions. You don't tend to think holistically about how do all these positions fit in together. And just because something is a terrific bargain today, it doesn't mean that it's the best thing that you could possibly buy because can you keep on adding capital to it over time, particularly in a fund like ours that's growing. And so you have to be able to buy positions that you think you can consistently add capital to, not just that you had that great one-off mispricing on that one day, and then there's not either the liquidity to do it or that mispricing closes so quickly that you can't add more capital to it.

41:53Because we try to be pretty disciplined about having less than 20 positions. That's one. And Stuart Roden of Lansdowne said that good analysts don't tend to make good portfolio managers because of not seeing how the portfolio gets put together and how to manage adding and taking off positions relative to falling in love with your idea. Where have you made mistakes? I think misjudging management has been one, certainly. And CBOE, which is the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, as it turns out, I view that as a mistake, even though the stock went up after we sold it. You could say that we left money on the table.

42:22But in my view, misjudging management and capital allocation was a critical one. We had owned Meta, which falls into the sort of media advertising company, which I was referring to earlier. bought it when it had reached about$130, it was about 10 % free cash flow yield. I remember on the call, Mark Zuckerberg was saying that there'd be no free cash flow that quarter, no free cash flow the next year. And I think it was probably out of a sense of personal embarrassment watching his stock collapse that he then decided to cut back spending on Meta. And basically the next year became a year of right sizing and so on.

42:51Maybe my mistake was not buying back in, but I realized at that stage when you have shareholders and a founder at Meta who owned 14 % of the shares and exercised over 51 % of the control, this is very definitely the Curse of the Mogul where you have the multi-voting shares. It was probably best to leave meta to other people. And I'm thrilled that other friends I have made a lot of money. Being in a relationship with a CEO who has outsized control relative to their shares is generally not a good idea. Where are some other areas of, let's call it opportunity cost or things that you could have or close to buying and chose not to?

43:24There've been quite a few of those. One of our analysts and I spent months and months on the semiconductor industry. The industry has become much more concentrated, primarily due to technological complexity, and in some cases, capital intensity. And we spent an enormous amount of time working on it. We did not buy late in 2022. Obviously, that's had a terrific run since. And part of that was that we'd written a 30-page paper looking at previous semicycles and looking at what you end up seeing in terms of book-to-bill ratios, supply coming online. And so we thought, this is not the right moment to buy.

43:57It will go lower and we'll have the opportunity here and we've done the work. Now, of course, they just took off like a rocket. Many of these have doubled and more than doubled. I think there's an element of hype in some of them. And the valuations today are certainly not at all attractive relative to the fundamentals in many cases. So that's an area where other people have made money and we've not. But I think that it's an absolute sin to lose money for investors. I'd far prefer to have a lower return not losing money than I would to flail about and punish myself for having missed an opportunity that produced great returns.

44:27I think if we can take care of the losers, the winners will take care of themselves. So alongside this development of your investment strategy, you've had to build a business and you've gone from just starting it with nothing to half a billion dollars after a couple of years. I'd love to hear some of what that path has been like and lessons learned along the way. When we started, it was a much smaller team. We've grown quite a lot, particularly in the last two years. And I think one of the important things is finding high talent and high agreeableness. Generally, these two don't go together. And I was very fortunate to be able to work with Simon Batten, who's worked for the last three decades running funds.

45:04Lately, he started his own firm, Hermine, but he'd been at Eclectica, previously Odie. And he's extraordinarily competent, one of the most agreeable people I know. I can't remember having a conflict with him that we can't talk about and resolve within five or 10 minutes. And so having him take over a hundred percent of all essentially financial, legal, admin, regulatory has been just a terrific boon for me because when we started the fund, I was still doing a little bit too much of that. And I think that's inevitable unless you're doing a large start where you come from a previous manager, where you've got your track record and can start with an enormous amount of capital.

45:35To me, that was a big lesson and it's great. And I'm so glad that Simon's on board and then just trying to build a team. And I think the other thing is finding great mentors. I listened to your podcast every week and being able to talk to you as a friend. You've always been there basically when I've had questions. There are many great investors who are essentially unknown to the wider audience and want to stay that way. And they know who they are. And I'm extremely grateful to them for having lunch with me whenever I go through New York or London. They know how grateful I am, but just having those really helps on the business side.

46:01How have you found the path of raising capital? The best way to look at endowments and large investors, these are like oil tankers. They just move slowly. They have their own internal strategy. They have their own internal allocations. This is not something that happens overnight. It's natural that they want to see a manager do well. And then they have to get to know you. We have to get to know them. And so I think that most things in life are a marathon, not a sprint. And so I hope that I can have good health and do this for the next 40, 50 years. And I think that investing is one of the few lucky professions where you don't have to retire due to physical aches and pains of your job at the age of 40 or 50, or even be forced out in your mid-60s.

46:41Buffett, Munger, and Templeton, we're doing it in their 90s. I hope I can do that. I think that looking at investors, if I want to have a long-term approach for my business, certainly they have one for theirs. And so I'm not in a rush and just trying to make sure that they get to know us. How do you look at your longer-term objectives for this business and what it means for your life? One, I enjoy what I do tremendously, which is every day there's something new and interesting in terms of reading books, articles, looking at companies. I think it's a deeply engaging pursuit intellectually investing.

47:10Also, because I think investing itself is agreeable, I want to work with agreeable people. So having a team of great people that I love is important. And I think that we've really lucked out with our analysts in terms of the character and the quality that they have. But as a business, what I'd love to do is to close the fund to outside investors, focus on long-term capital-weighted returns, not just time-weighted returns. One of my favorite books is The Hedge Fund Mirage by Simon Lack. And he points out that many funds destroy dollar value because you put up great returns on low capital. You get too much capital, produce poor returns, shut.

47:43And the investors essentially net have lost money and the manager is very rich. And I think that's a terrible thing. And I would be deeply embarrassed if anything like that happened. And I also think that we're not in the business to fundraise or gather assets and live off the management view. We're in the business to try to put up good returns and making sure that we have the right size is critical. So if we circle back to where we started, you are in the early stages of raising a family. And I'd just love to hear, based on your own experience as a kid, how you think about being a parent and raising your kids.

48:14My mother passed away in 2012, and she ran the drug center with my father. My father's 77, still working. And I think he'll die working because he loves what he does and probably the way he wants to go out. One thing that my mother always told me as we related to the addicts was the answer to life's problems is almost always more love. And I think that if children can grow up in a loving environment, and even within firms, if you can provide an environment where people feel loved and supported, you're going to get a lot more out of them than having other rewards or punishments. I hope I can be as good a parent to my own children as I think my parents were to me.

48:47Jonathan, I want to ask you a couple of closing questions that I didn't ask you the last time around. What is one fact that most people don't know about you? And let's say in addition to your background? Probably the strangest anecdote that makes my friends laugh is two strange things. One is I can do a handstand from Lotus position, which I ended up doing in a job interview with Dan Lowe when he asked me that question. And then the other one is I love languages and I ended up spending my time reading a lot of books in old Spanish when I was a kid. So when I got to college, I'd read an article about Ladino, which was 15th century Spanish mixed with Hebrew when Spaniards kicked the Jews out in 1492.

49:23Many kept on speaking it. And there's so many people today who speak Spanish. Families haven't been there for 500 years. And so I got a fellowship to go to Israel and learn Ladina. Which two people have had the biggest impact on your professional life? That's a tough question because there's so many wonderful people. But one, Adil Qabani, he was a Rhodes Scholar with me. And he's just an absolutely stellar person as a human being, and also a phenomenal fund manager. And you might be annoyed that I'm outing him and talking about him. I think there's only his article online when he got the Rhodes, when he got married, and when he launched this fund.

49:51And then deeply grateful to Paul Marshall, who was a client at variant perception and been tremendously supportive to me as the fund is launched. What are the things you learned most from them? From a deal, the only thing that really matters is performance. If you go to his website, it's got his Park Avenue address and an email. He knows the institutions invest in him. They know him. He does extraordinarily deep work and he's just always doing interesting things that are slightly off the beaten path. And I do think that execution is the only thing that matters and putting up returns and having a great relationship with the LP.

50:20So he's a real model in that way. with Paul. I think everyone in the investment industry generally has to start somewhere. And he's just been so helpful to us as we started. And obviously, we don't invest the same way. We don't have the resources or the PMs that Marshall Waste does. But ultimately, investing really is about buying quality things at a fair, if not very attractive price and avoiding, if not shorting, things that are bad. And that we share a very similar philosophy. And then his book, 10 and a Half Lessons, I think is terrific. And you had him on your show and he talked about it.

50:50I think that's a must-read book and very much from the portfolio manners approach, which is managing risk and position sizing rather than just do you like that individual idea. One last one. What's the best advice you've ever received? That one's very tough, not least because I'm so grateful. People have provided a lot of good advice. So one of them, interestingly, was my best friend, Turi. I was talking to him about my plans for the fund and what I wanted to do and these great investors and Templeton and Buffett and Chris Hound and others. And he said, Jonathan, he said, you do you. And I've realized that ultimately one part of growing up as a human being is you have to learn from your parents, but ultimately we are ourselves.

51:26And part of growing up figuratively is abandoning the parents and being willing to be ourselves. And I think professionally, everyone has to learn, the world moves on. And I think if all we did was slavishly copy our mentors or even great figures who've read books about, we wouldn't grow very much. Jonathan, thanks so much for sharing your incredible personal story and this step in your professional journey. Thank you so much for having me, Ted. Thanks for listening to the show. To learn more, hop on our website at capitalallocators.com, where you can join our mailing list, access past shows, learn about our gatherings, and sign up for premium content, including podcast transcripts, my investment portfolio, and a lot more.

52:07Have a good one and see you next time.

52:16Thank you.

From the publisher

Jonathan Tepper is the CIO of Prevatt Capital, a $450 million long only firm he founded in 2020 that takes a quality and value approach to own a concentrated portfolio of global monopolies. He is also the author of The Myth of Capitalism, a book we discussed alongside his career path on the show five years ago. That conversation is replayed in the feed.

Our conversation this time around bookends our prior discussion, covering Jonathan’s unique upbringing and education on one end and his creation of Prevatt Capital to apply the lessons from The Myth of Capitalism on the other.


As a disclaimer, I so took to Jonathan when we first met that I’ve been an advisor to him and Prevatt Capital since launch and am an investor in the strategy.


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