Marc Lasry – Avenues of Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.315)

29:36I would tell you it was more of the lessons I learned on investing that translated to the Bucks. The biggest decision you have to make when you own a team is talent went out or this team went out. Same thing in your organization. You can hire a super talented portfolio manager who is the most difficult person in the world, but he's a moneymaker. And that moneymaker just makes everybody else's life miserable. We've all, I think, dealt with that in our lives of someone who will make money, but you don't want to be around. Basketball and sports, same thing. Someone who's super talented, but makes life difficult for his teammates.

30:17So the NBA, football, baseball, it's always about, do you want talent? it or do you want to build a team? You're now exiting the investment in the bucks and love to hear your thoughts on this ride and why exit the fun factor. It's a great question. I think when I made decision to sell, I thought it was the right time to sell economically. I thought valuations had gone up quite a bit. Do I love it? Do I think it's been a blast? Yes, absolutely. But how long could the ride keep going? How long could valuations go up? And for them to keep going, you needed to keep doubling and tripling your media rights every seven, 10 years.

31:05So I just thought it was the right time. And it's bittersweet. We closed about a week ago. I was in Milwaukee yesterday, and the team lost to Miami, so we got knocked out the first round, which is horrible, because I think just as you get lucky, you get unlucky. And I think the Bucs got unlucky in that in the first game against Miami, Giannis got hurt. And that had a huge impact. You have your best player who can't play. and then you look at what happened, Miami did a great job. They got extremely lucky. They shot far, far higher their percentage. And look, that's an aberration, but that will happen.

31:58And it is what it is. It goes back. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. I'm sad for the city. I'm sad for the players because you know how hard everybody works. and the problem with sports is you want to win and when you lose, you're just depressed. It was a sad day. From your experience over the last decade with the team, you started off saying you knew your investors weren't going to be happy. How should people think about when one of their managers takes on, it doesn't have to be a sports team, but something that's clearly different profile, potential distraction? I'll tell you what I told investors.

32:37I was pretty upfront. Look, yes, it's going to take some time. I don't think it's going to affect what we're doing on the investment side at all. I'm biased. Obviously, I believe that. But you're going to see the results. If you see that we're not doing well, then you're not going to re -up. If we are doing well, you will re -up. so the reason everybody focused on is because it was very public but nobody would know if i ended up leaving the office at five and playing tennis for seven hours a day or if i went to i love playing chess so if i went to play chess it's a public thing so people see it and i tried to explain to people i'm not taking on another full -time job what i'm doing is we're making an investment.

33:32There's a whole process. Yes, I'm going to be involved. And tell you, I got more involved in the bucks. But I think what investors saw is didn't have an impact and we actually were performing better. So nobody really worried about it. So now that whatever that distraction may or may not have been as in the past, What does Avenue look like today? Avenue looks the same, I think, than it did five, 10 years ago. We focus on private credit throughout the world, and we're managing around $12 billion. We found a sweet spot that when the cycle comes back, we'll end up raising more. And when the cycle, right now is a great time for us.

34:19You're overwhelmed by investment opportunities. I think we're going to go do a sports fund, mainly because I think I learned quite a bit about investing in sports and understanding sports that I don't think others know. So I think for us, you'll see us keep doing what we're doing, which is staying at the top of the capital structure and trying to generate equity returns by buying senior debt. Today, hey, you can make loans at 12 % to 15 % because nobody else is making them and you're senior and you're secured. But I don't think private equity over the next three years is going to make you 15%, 20%.

35:02And if it does, that's great. But if I'm making you 15 senior secured, I would argue the spread between what we make and what private equity makes should be much, much higher. So today, because of where rates are, And the lack of what's happening with banks, structurally, banks are pulling back, which means that firms like ours that are providing capital can charge more. That wasn't the case two years ago. Two years ago, banks had a zero cost of capital, so they're lending at 2 % to 5%. And you could never compete against that, so it was harder. Today, yes, the banks' cost of capital is higher, but the banks also don't want to make loans.

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36:37Learn more at srsaquium .com. That's S -R -S -A -C -Q -U -I -O -M .com. And now, back to the show. When the returns available for the similar kind of risk go up, how do you think about deploying across geographies? You either got to get paid more or you've got to take less risk. So if I'm making you 10 % in the U .S. and then I make you 10 % in Europe and 10 % in Asia, okay, so that's all good. Other than the fact that I would tell you 10 % in the U .S. is less risky than 10 % in Europe and 10 % in Asia. So what's the spread? What should you get paid for investing in Asia? I always think it should be 500 basis points more.

37:30Europe should be 200 to 300 basis points more. right? U .S. is just more liquid. So when we look around the world, we want to make sure we're getting paid for that extra risk. And then sometimes, and this is the part people don't fully appreciate, the perception of risk in other parts of the world is very high, whereas the actual risk is actually lower. And what I mean by that is you have a bankruptcy system here in the U .S. So if I said to you, I'm investing in the US or in Europe, you would say to me, well, great, US is safer. I would say to you, that's true, unless you're investing in the UK.

38:09Because the UK, the legal system there is actually stronger than it is in the US. But if I'm investing in Italy, you've got issues if you're investing in Greece. But the perception is that you are taking more risk. And I would tell you that in the UK and Ireland, you're taking less risk. Same thing in Asia. In Asia, everybody's nervous about Asia. And I would totally agree. But if I'm investing in Singapore, that legal system, it is a strict priority. If you're investing in India, it's a UK system of law. So invest in jurisdictions where the perception is high, but the actual risk is low. Over the last five or 10 years where you've been kind of doing the same thing, the world of private credit has exploded.

38:58And I'm curious what the competitive strengths and weaknesses look like. I would tell you 10 years ago, 80 % of everything we did was public. We'd buy public bonds. Today, 80 to 90 % of what we do is private. So it's all bilateral. And I think that's been the big change in the market. Why? Because public bonds have horrible covenants. Over time, you had unsecured bonds that really didn't have any collateral. They owned the equity of a holding company. Bilateral agreements where we could do deals and we're lending money, I mean, it is massive collateral. And that's what's changed where you are doing that today for a $20 million deal.

39:52It's a lot more work and you need more people because you're not just buying a bond. But that's what's changed. And I think what you're finding is the larger firms, whether it's Aries, Oak Tree, will go out and end up doing these bilateral deals. And they'll end up using the leverage from a bank to generate the return. So I think I would tell you 10 years ago, people didn't really use leverage. If you were making a mid -teens return, it was unlevered. Today, you've got tight agreements, but you're lending 6%, 7 % and putting one -turn leverage or two -turns of leverage. That's what's changed. How do you find the opportunities to generate the kinds of returns you were talking about if so much more money is willing to lend at lower rates because they can put the leverage to get the net returns underneath?

40:50I think you've got to decide what you want your business to be. If you want to be a liquidity provider, which is what we are, you need larger teams because you got to find and you got to source deals. And you can source deals that are 25 to 100 million. Because the larger players need to put 200, 400, 600 million to work at a clip. So you've got an edge. It's a good edge, but that edge is only real if you have larger teams. I think everybody finds the niche they're looking for. Our niche is we try not to raise funds that are larger than a billion dollars. Because the larger we get, the more we're going to compete and need leverage to generate returns.

41:38The smaller you are, the more you can generate unlevered returns. And if you put eternal leverage there, you're going to outperform everybody. Along the way, there are always opportunities to look at adjacencies to what your core expertise is. I'm curious, what are some of the ones you've adopted and what are some of the ones that you've stayed away from? It's a great question. I think we've come to the conclusion to go and do those, you need to have a team that's got the experience in that sector. Let's not us go do it. So we started a venture debt group because the folks who used to work at Hercules were leaving and they came over.

42:20And we hired all three guys and raised a fund around that. and that fund's done great, mainly because the people we brought in are super talented. And I think you need to have that. When we started Europe, we hired the head of Europe and one of the largest firms to come over to Avenue and he built out the team. I think you have higher teams. Yeah, you could do one -offs, but you're going to be really, really small. What you're talking about is building a business and building a business is hard. So you've got to make sure you've got the right guys, the right women, and they fit the culture of your firm.

42:59I think some that we've tried have not worked out, and then some that we have have worked out. So yeah, it's hard. What'd you learn from the ones that didn't? It's always about the people. It really is. We hired the wrong people. We thought they were good. Nobody hires somebody thinking they're going to lose you money. Nobody gives anybody money thinking they're going to lose you money. You make decisions. I think what we've been very good at is that if someone's not working out or we see it's not working out is quickly pulling the plug. With this recent closing of your sale of the bucks, you now have a windfall of capital.

43:39And I'm curious as you're looking out at opportunities, what's most exciting you for your own capital? I made a huge mistake when I bought the bucks that I put the team in my kid's name. And at the time, I thought it made a lot of sense. And obviously, I did it because I thought the value of the team would double over time. And here was a great estate tax way of trying to transfer money to your children. I didn't realize it would go up so much. So now my kids have a tremendous amount of money. So what I'm trying to do is convince them to invest in the things I'm doing. and right now they're explaining to me that they love treasuries and there's no risk.

44:25So I think you've got these huge opportunities out there. I do think sports is a asset class that's gonna really grow so I wanna do that. I think opportunities in Europe today are pretty large just simply because you're getting overpaid for the risk. I think Asia is the same thing. I think what we're doing in the US in different areas, whether we're doing it, we're lending money on the real estate side It's really hard money lending. You're getting overpaid for that, what we're doing on the venture debt. So there's a lot of different places where you can make money today. And it's all for the same reason that banks are pulling back.

45:04I don't mind competing against Oak Tree. Their cost of capital is the same as mine. I'll find deals they don't. They'll find deals I won't. But if I'm competing against banks, that's different. And once banks pull out, you have this oversupply of opportunities and less capital for that because banks provided a huge amount of capital. And so really all the banks are doing is saying, hey, loan has come due. We're not extended. That's where the opportunities are. 60 % of all business in the US is small business. So people who had a $20 million loan, a $50 million loan, a $100 million loan, all of a sudden are finding that the banks are saying, we're not extending.

45:56And they're telling them, we're not extending in six months. Okay, well, they were lending money at 5%, 6%. I now can come in and say, I'm going to charge you 15. And I want more collateral. And as a company, you have no choice. As the equity holder, you have no choice. the Fed I don't think cares mainly because what the Fed is trying to do is tame inflation the Fed is just focused on one thing we're going to get inflation down but by doing that they're causing unemployment they recognize that but they're going to say look yes unemployment will go from wherever the number is 4 % 6 % and yes that means you've got all these Americans who are going to be out of work but we think with more people out of work, there's less people who are going to be spending money, and therefore there's less pressure on the system, so inflation will start coming down, and you're seeing it.

46:56But that is causing a tremendous amount of harm to a number of people and families. And the Fed has decided a number of people are going to get hurt, so the majority can do well. That's a societal decision that the Fed has made. However, the fact that they're not lending and banks aren't lending, that's going to be a year or two years or maybe even three years. So we're stepping into that, but the cost of that for businesses is very high. And what you will find is a number of businesses are going to have issues. And I will guarantee you the focus of the Fed is not inflation, but is the recession.

47:41And what do you do when you're in a recession? You start lowering rates because you want to try to put people back to work. You're going to try to ruin people's lives, and then you're going to try to put it back together. And a lot of people are going to get hurt. And we're trying to step in and lend money, understanding that people don't have much of a choice, but at the very least, they now will have capital because if they didn't have that capital, they'd be in bankruptcy. I'm curious how you reconcile that outlook with sports investing in two ways. First is, as you mentioned, you paid 100 times for the bucks and then it went up.

48:19So the valuation part of it is totally different than lending. And then the other, if that stretches the economy, cost of capital goes way up, consumers spending goes down, the potential impact on the economics of these teams as you own them. What you find fascinating is people love sports. They just do. And they will still go to games. I think what you will find is that ticket pricing won't go up. So normally what in every business, sports included, your tickets will go up 5%, 10 % a year. Costs of food will go up. There's an inflation number. If you win, it's easier to charge more. if you lose, you better have a great product.

49:09What I want to do is actually lend teams money. And you can do that because everybody believes everything will turn around. And I believe that. So I think if you can provide financing to teams, whether it's in baseball, basketball, football, hockey, the Premier League, you can do things where I think there is an opportunity set there. And I think the loan to value is really low. I think you can lend at around a 20 % loan to value, which you can't find anywhere. And what I want to do is get involved in women's sports. I think that is going to grow exponentially. I want to get involved in leagues outside of the U .S., in basketball league in Africa, in basketball leagues in Asia, in soccer teams.

50:02So I think if you want to focus on the large teams in the U .S., that you're going to pay quite a bit for. But I think there's a real interest, and I'll prove my point to you. And I hope you answer the right way, because we'll find out. All right. You watch the Olympics? Some. Okay. Used to watch a lot more. You ever watch curling? Yeah. Okay. So you just proved my point. Here's a sport where it's a man rolling a heavy ball to a circle, whereas another person is raking the ice to make the ball go faster. And you watch that. And is that a sport? It's an Olympic sport. And yet you're watching it.

50:49and as the media executive told me, if people watch curling, what it means is they want to just watch anything. And this is the thing. What people want to do is watch the best in the world compete. That's what people want. And also what has changed between when you and I were a kid is people now gamble on that. If you and I gambled on a game, it'd be, I'll bet you $10 the Knicks are going to win tonight. Now people are betting on the over -under of a specific player, the over -under of who's making the first basket, who's scoring the first field goal, who's doing this. And that's why more people are watching sports.

51:32I invested in a company, Lucra, which is the interaction between friends and how they're dealing with each other while a game is going on. And you have all these different avenues of interaction that you and I never had. We just went to a game. That was it. And I've been to games where the home team wins. They're going to win by 10, 12 points. The other team scores a basket. So now you've won by nine. And the whole stadium goes, no! And I remember the first time it happened, I looked at my son. What's everybody bummed about? There was two seconds left. Like, who cares? Spread was nine. Yeah, the spread was nine.

52:22Yes. You just said it. And literally, you've just found out how many people bet on that game. I never used to look at spread. I don't look at a spread. I mean, it's irrelevant. But I look at the spread in the sense of, okay, Vegas thinks we're going to win. And if you look at what's going on in sports, the opportunities are immense. I think the opportunities are immense on the ancillary things to sports. That's what I want to focus on. And that's where I want to put money to work. I'd love to ask you about navigating Asia with the changes in the geopolitical landscape the last couple of years.

53:02You've been there for a long time. What's changed? What's similar in how you're going about investing? It's changed a lot. And it's a great question. because five years ago, we were comfortable investing in China. Today, we're not. The legal system hasn't changed. It's the geopolitical situation that's there. And what I mean by that is before you believed that at the end of the day, you would be treated fairly. Today, you can find yourself caught in the geopolitical war and find yourself with your asset being taken away. And look, and that happened to us in Russia. We have an aviation fund that invests and we own four planes.

53:49Those planes, at the time of the Ukraine war, were taking passengers from Turkey to Moscow. When sanctions came down, Moscow grounded those planes, and we found all of a sudden four of our assets, we couldn't recover. They wouldn't let the planes fly out. So you find yourself in all these situations. You now are focused more on your geopolitical issues. would I invest in China today? No. Would I invest in Hong Kong? Yes. And do I want a higher return for that? Yes. But the thing that people miss, by the way, is you actually want to be investing in Asia for one simple reason. If the driving force in Asia is China, and that driving force is growing by 5 % a year.

54:47Do you think that's beneficial for the region? Yes. But people look at your question, geopolitical, yes. So don't invest in China. Invest in the region because the region's growing at 5 % a year because China, that's where China is. If you want to invest in the US and the US is flat, does that help or hurt Mexico? Does that help or hurt Canada? It's not going to help if we're flat or GDP is down 1%, that means that's going to impact trade with Canada, trade with Mexico. If we're growing at 5%, that's beneficial to what's going on. We're going to import more. We're going to do things. So it's a great question, but I think people just get stuck on the first iteration and there's so many different iterations.

55:33I'd love to ask you about a couple of things you've been involved with over time. Let's start with politics. Sure. What's your general thought of your involvement rationale? in U .S. politics? I think in what we do, I want to always understand the geopolitical issues. And I think if you don't understand them, you're at a disadvantage. So that's one of the reasons I got involved. The second reason was I thought I wasn't born here. In Morocco, you don't have the opportunity to meet the senior levels of government. You really don't. Here you do. I think that's fascinating. It just is. If the fact that you can get involved and be an advisor or try to help with certain things that are going on in the economy and you can have meetings with treasury secretaries and president of the United States or the vice president of the United States, I don't know that many countries you can do that in.

56:38So why wouldn't you do that? I don't mean to simplify it, but that's really it. You mentioned chess earlier. Yes, sir. How has playing chess impacted how you think and how you invest? You think too much. The problem with chess is you've got to think four or five, ten moves ahead. So I played competitive chess, and I found that really helpful in life. it's good and it's bad because you're trying to always figure out all the different things that can happen and then you start applying probabilities to that whereas I don't think most people do that I think most people just they'll go to the first iteration or the second iteration I'm going to the fifth to the seventh to the tenth and I think it's annoying for people but I think it's been helpful I think it's great for business I think for life it's good but sometimes it makes you think too much and sometimes you shouldn't think as much and should enjoy what you're doing.

57:41But we all have personality defects. We all have issues. I always get asked, why am I still working? I have a friend. I'll give him a shout out. His name is Danny. He made quite a bit of money and stopped working at 40. and I've made quite a bit of money and I'm still working. He'll ask, what the hell's wrong with you? Why are you still working? I don't even remotely understand how you could have stopped. I go, you're busy doing absolutely nothing. And he goes, yes, but at least I'm busy. And he goes, you're busy doing something. And he goes, wouldn't you rather be doing nothing? That's why I said it's a personality defect.

58:25I'm working because I love working, and I find that's what I have to do. We all say when we make a certain amount of money, we're going to stop. Everybody's got a number in their mind, and then you get to that number, and then you raise your number. Danny got to his number and just said, yeah, I'm good. And I totally respect that. I wish I could be like that. I can't. And you find a lot of people in finance, irrespective of what they've made, just love working. And that to me is a personality defect, or you can look at it as a defect, you can look at it as a positive. But I think for investors, they love the fact that people like me are still working and want to keep working.

59:06And then our team, our PMs who've made money, they want to keep working. Right? So it's actually fascinating. I've always tried to figure it out. I haven't been able to. How about poker? Love it. Love playing with friends. I think it's fun. I think it's just math. I think the fun thing about poker is that your job is to try to figure out what somebody's doing, and then you're playing with friends. One of the things I did once, I was at a conference in Vegas, and I went to the dollar table, because I'd read in a book that it's irrelevant what the cards are. It's the players. so I went to the dollar two table and never looked at my cards and just played to see if that thesis was correct.

59:50You know, some parts of it were, some parts weren't. And what I like about poker is it actually teaches you quite a bit of how people act and you find that in the investing world. Why are people doing certain things? I think it's fun. I'll go play with friends once a week, once every two or three weeks. Yeah, it's just I love things that involve math. Love backgammon, all these different things. How does poker change in that question of understanding people when you're playing with a new group or people you haven't played with as much compared to your friends that you're playing with all the time?

1:00:30Oh, your friends, you know how he acts and things. When you're playing with a new group, you have no idea what's going on. And so for the first hour, you're doing nothing. You're trying to figure it out. I've found I enjoy the part of just being with friends more because it's camaraderie. You're having a good time. I quickly realized as a poker, I'm not that good. No, you're good, but you're not. Everything, there's levels. I love playing tennis. I absolutely adore it. And you think you're really good until you play somebody who's good, and then you realize how bad you are. And then the higher up you play someone.

1:01:08I have friends who use our house. They won the doubles U .S. Open and they've won doubles in Wimbledon. Juan Cabal and Robert Farah, phenomenal players. They'll practice in my house before the U .S. Open. And I get the privilege of playing with them. So this is how bad, seriously, think of how bad you have to be, where I get the whole court. If I hit the ball, for it to be out of bounds, it has to hit the wall. It's not the doubles alley. It's the whole court. And they've got to be in the singles. And we played a 10 and I can only win half the time. The thing I've lost all the time is we always play for $100.

1:01:56The two of them are in net and they'll feed me 10 balls. and if I can get one ball past them or if they hit a ball in the net, I win $100. I've yet to win $100. But it's fun. And that's my point. It's fun playing against people who are super talented. I just, I love the competition part, but I also love the fact of realizing what real excellence is because you see it and it always brings you right back to earth. All right, Mark, I want to ask you a couple of closing questions and let you go. What is your favorite hobby or activity outside of work and family? Tennis. I love playing it. I love being out.

1:02:40I think it's just a fun hobby. It's one -on -one. I love knowing right away. Not, it takes an hour, but I love knowing whether you've won or lost. What type of investment do you gravitate to, like a moth to the flame? I love lending money where I think I'm oversecured, where I don't think I'm taking any risk and I'm getting paid for that. What's your biggest pet peeve? I hate dealing with people who think they know everything. I don't understand how people believe that. I love learning. I love trying to understand things. And it's amazing to me. We all have friends that are know -it -alls and it's just annoying.

1:03:24Which two people have had the biggest impact on your professional life? I would say David Bonnerman, and I would say my wife. Why? Mainly because I think to be successful at work, your partner has to be supportive of the decisions that you're making. So for me, Kathy always went out of her way when I would say, all right, should I take this risk? Because we have kids. should I not take this risk of trying a new job or doing something? It's hard to do if your partner ends up telling you no. I think my wife has been massively supportive and enabled me to make decisions that I think enabled me to succeed.

1:04:17David Bonderman, when I went to the Bass Group, went out of his way to help me. And I don't think I'd be where I am today if not for him. What was the most challenging moment of your career? Well, I think 2008. We were down about 25 % that year. And you were losing billions of dollars. And you had to keep believing you were right. And it was hard. And I think you questioned yourself quite a bit was at that time, should you sell everything and go into cash or buy more? And yeah, everybody tells you, oh, when something goes down, you should double down, you should buy more, be tough. And it's really, really hard in the face of everybody telling you you're wrong to keep on believing that you're right.

1:05:12And, you know, I questioned a lot of the things I was doing. because I was constantly being told I was wrong. Not by people, by the market. You'd buy something at 60 and a month later it was 50. You'd buy it at 50 and a month later it was 40. Things that we were buying things all the way down to 10 or 20. In the beginning it's easier as it kept happening and happening. You are questioning your thesis on everything. You're doing more work and you keep coming to the same solutions. So are you looking at the world the wrong way? Are you missing things? because everybody else seems to be right. Like whoever sold was right.

1:05:49And it took about a year. I mean, 2009, we were up about 65%, but that was a dark year. I think I lost 10, 15 pounds. You're just, you're not eating. You're focused, trying to redo the work. And it was just hard. What did you take away from that? Should that happen again? Believe in your thesis. Do what we did, which was constantly re -challenge that thesis. understand that other people are under different pressures. Were they selling because they didn't believe in the value or they were selling because it was a macro issue? It's the biggest thing I learned. It's irrelevant being right. You need to have the time to be right.

1:06:32How many people do we know that are right, but they had to sell because either of leverage or they had to do something and then a year later they were correct, but they didn't have the ability to wait and I think what I learned is there's a macro and there's a micro and we all know what that is but the macro was dominating and if we had been levered we would not have been able to sustain anything reason a lot of people lost money is they were levered two to one three to one which seemed utterly reasonable forget Bear Stearns which was levered 38 to one people who were levered two to three to one and you're down 20, 30%, you've lost all the money.

1:07:15So you're under different pressure. So I think to me, what I've learned is understand that time may not be your friend and you better have the ability to withstand time because if you don't, you will get destroyed. What teaching from your parents has most stayed with you? My dad was a big believer that you needed to always just do the right thing, that don't worry if you do the right thing, life will work out. And it's easy to say, but it's actually hard to follow. And I've tried to follow that, which is always try to do the right thing. And either history will judge that what you did is right, or people will judge what you did is right.

1:08:02But in the moment of time, it's hard to do because we're always under different pressures. All right, Mark, last one. What life lesson have you learned that you wish you knew a lot earlier in life? Life works out. I think when I was younger, I worried about things more. Bad things that happened affected me more than it should have. And I think the life lesson is life is long. Things will work out. Give it time. Whereas I think for all of us, when something bad happens, you live in that moment as opposed to relax. And if I could go talk to myself as a 21 -year -old, I would say, relax. It's going to be fun.

1:08:46Mark, thanks so much for sharing this great journey you've been on. Thank you. Thanks for listening to the show. If you like what you heard, hop on our website at CapitalAllocators .com, where you can access past shows, join our mailing list, and sign up for premium content. Have a good one, and see you next time.