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Podcast Episode Summary: Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Podcast Overview
- Title: Capital Allocators
- Host: Ted Seides
- Guest: Matt Miller, Managing Director of Grey Rock Investment Partners
- Release Date: [Date Not Provided]
- Description: Ted Seides interviews industry leaders in the institutional investing sector, focusing on investment strategies and insights.
Episode Highlights Background of Matt Miller
- Early Life: Grew up in Athens, Georgia, with a challenging financial background.
- Education: Attended University of Virginia, majoring in English and religious studies before shifting to commerce.
- Career Path:
- Worked at McKinsey, involved in private equity.
- Co-founded Grey Rock Investment Partners in 2013, initially as an oil and gas manager.
Grey Rock Investment Partners
- Company Evolution: Transitioned from traditional oil and gas management to a diversified approach managing $1 billion across natural resources and renewables.
- Investment Philosophy:
- Focus on identifying niche opportunities in the energy sector without sacrificing human interest for returns.
- Emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interdependencies in energy systems.
Energy Transition and ESG Considerations
- Energy Needs: Addresses the ongoing need for natural resources while recognizing the pressures from ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria.
- Investment Strategy:
- Shifted focus from conventional renewables, seen as overcapitalized, to carbon capture and emissions transition investments.
- The company aims to meet clients' return objectives while fulfilling ESG commitments, exploring emissions reduction strategies.
Key Investment Themes
- Carbon Capture:
- Identifies it as an underexplored yet promising area with potential for substantial returns, driven by tax incentives like the 45Q credit.
- Discusses the mechanics of carbon capture, including capturing, transporting, and sequestering CO2.
- Investment Return Potential: Projects in carbon capture can yield 20-30% returns, competing with traditional private equity ventures.
Challenges in the Energy Sector
- Overcapitalization: Many renewable strategies are marked by excessive capital chasing limited returns.
- Complexity and Regulation: Navigating the regulatory landscape and managing operational complexities are crucial for success in energy investments.
Future Outlook
- Niche Opportunities: Grey Rock intends to continue identifying dislocations in the energy market to find viable investment prospects.
- Government Policy: Anticipates increased government involvement in energy transitions, with potential taxation on carbon emissions as a future development.
Key Takeaways
- Investment Philosophy: Balancing human-interest needs with return expectations is crucial in the evolving energy landscape.
- Market Dynamics: Understanding market dislocations and the interconnected nature of energy supply and demand is vital for successful investing.
- ESG Integration: The energy sector must adapt to ESG pressures without sacrificing profitability.
Closing Thoughts Matt Miller emphasizes the importance of being adaptable and open to change within the investment landscape. His experiences underline the necessity of understanding complex systems and the opportunities they present, particularly in an era increasingly focused on sustainability and emissions reduction.
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Additional Resources
- Follow Ted Seides: [Twitter](https://twitter.com/tseides?lang=en), [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedseides/)
- Website: [Capital Allocators](https://capitalallocators.com/)
- Learn More About Grey Rock Investment Partners: [Grey Rock Website](#)
Episode Links
- [Listen to the Episode](#) (Link Not Provided)
- [Access Transcript](https://capitalallocators.com/signup)
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This summary encapsulates the significant discussions and insights shared in the podcast episode, providing a comprehensive overview of the key concepts, arguments, and future directions in the energy investment landscape as articulated by Matt Miller.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01Capital Allocators is brought to you by my friends at WCM Investment Management. To outperform the markets, you have to do something differently from others. In my 30-something years investing in managers, there may be no one I've come across who does that as clearly and as well as WCM. I've seen it up close as an investor in their international growth strategy for the last five years. WCM is a global equity investment manager majority owned by its employees. They believe that being based on the West Coast, away from the influence of Wall Street groupthink provides them with the freedom to live out their investment team's core values, think different, and get better.
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1:26This testimonial is being provided by Ted Seides and capital allocators who have been compensated a flat fee by WCM. This payment was made in connection with capital allocators testimonial and production of podcasts and does not depend on the success or level of business generated. The opinions expressed are solely those of capital allocators and may not reflect the opinions of others. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please visit WCM invest.com for WCM's ADV and further information. Capital allocators is also brought to you by Morningstar.
1:55What if data wasn't just a bunch of raw numbers, but a clear and decisive language to help connect investment strategies with long-term investor needs in a constantly evolving market landscape. Morningstar created that language, bringing order and utility to insight-rich data so you can prepare for your next opportunity no matter the asset class or market. Visit wheredataspeaks.com to see what Morningstar data can do for you.
2:32Hello, I'm Ted Seides, and this is Capital Allocators. This show is an open exploration of the people and process behind capital allocation. Through conversations with leaders in the money game, we learn how these holders of the keys to the kingdom allocate their time and their capital. You can join our mailing list and access premium content at CapitalAllocators.com. All opinions expressed by TED and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of capital allocators or their firms. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
3:11Clients of capital allocators or podcast guests may maintain positions in securities discussed on this podcast. My guest on today's show is Matt Miller, Managing Director of Greyrock Investment Partners. Matt co-founded Greyrock as a traditional oil and gas manager in 2013. Today, the firm manages a billion dollars across both natural resources and renewables by identifying attractive niches in each that do not trade off human interest for returns. Our conversation covers Matt's path to the energy sector and founding of GrayRock, the ongoing need for natural resources, and the identification of dislocations that create niche opportunities.
3:56We turn to GrayRock's own energy transition intended to resolve ESG pressures while meeting client return objectives, including the overcapitalization of most renewable strategies, discovery of an attractive niche in carbon capture, and complexity in making it work. Before we get going, I've appeared as a guest on a few podcasts to discuss my latest book, Private Equity Deals. If you're interested, I'd recommend listening to Invest Like the Best, The Investor's Podcast, Animal Spirits, Wall Street Skinny, and Private Capital, each of which offers a different take. A few more will come out over the next few weeks as well.
4:38But I'm not sure any of these appearances are as mind-blowing as what you're about to hear. After reading about Google's Notebook LM, I uploaded the book and downloaded a 12-minute AI-generated podcast discussing it. Other than about 10 different mispronunciations of my last name and a few factual inaccuracies, the summary of the book is entertaining and remarkable. Here's the first few minutes. Ever get the feeling like there are these hidden forces shaping the world around us? Like, we see the results, the brands we buy, the companies we work for, but we don't always see the strings being pulled behind the scenes.
5:21Oh, absolutely. Like we're living in the puppet show, but who are the puppeteers? Exactly. And today's deep dive, we're going backstage at one of the most powerful forces in global finance, private equity. Okay, I'm intrigued. But I'll be honest, whenever I hear private equity, I kind of picture like these guys in suits making deals that have nothing to do with my life. Right. It seems kind of distant, a bit. Yeah, kind of like Wall Street and not much else. Exactly. But the thing is, it's way more pervasive than we realize. And to guide us through this world, we're turning to Ted Seeds and his book, Private Equity Deals.
5:56Okay, so no dry, boring finance stuff. No way. Sands is the opposite of that. He's been a player in both traditional finance and the podcasting world. Interesting. So he knows how to tell a good story. He really does. And the first thing that struck me, private equity isn't just some obscure corner of Wall Street anymore. It's everywhere. It touches everything. We're talking the apps on your phone, the stores you shop at. Heck, even that vacation you're dreaming of, chances are private equity played a role. Seriously. I had no idea it was that widespread. Yeah. But I mean, if it's everywhere, shouldn't we know more about it?
6:32You'd think. Right. But that's the thing that's so crazy. Sands talks about this Bain and Company study. It found that even among wealth managers, people who deal with money all the time, awareness of specific private equity firms was shockingly low. Low how? Like they knew the names of a few big players or... Lower. Think like almost non-existent. We're talking about an industry that controls trillions of dollars and most people couldn't pick a PE firm out of a lineup. Wow, that's wild. It really is. And what's even crazier, this industry has gone from basically nothing to something in just 30 years, as Mario Giannini puts it in the book.
7:0830 years. Wow. Talk about a meteoric rise. So are investors like freaking out trying to get in on this? It's more like a feeding frenzy. Giannini talks about how he used to have to explain what private equity even was to people now. Everyone's like, how much can I invest and where? It's like they all want a piece of the pie, but don't even know the recipe. OK, now I get why we're doing a deep dive on this. This is like essential knowledge at this point. Exactly. And that's where CITES comes in. Private equity deals takes us behind the curtain, shows us how the sausage gets made, you know. I'm ready for a peek behind the curtain.
7:44Now, I suspect it'll be a long time before AI catches up with the stories from our incredible guests. But my April Fool's Day joke announcing the end of the podcast may be a better prognostication than I had realized. And yet, as AI gets more personal, the potential ramifications of false information gets more significant. So don't spread the word about Google Notebook LM just yet. but do feel free to let your friends know that you first listened to a book summary right here on the Capital Allocators podcast. Thanks so much for spreading the word. Please enjoy my conversation with Matt Miller.
8:24Matt, great to see you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. Why don't you take me back to your background and how you got involved in space in the first place? I appreciate you having me on. Woke up this morning, pretty excited about being on here. My wife says I have a real face for a podcast, so thank you for that. You're doing me both. So I grew up in a little town, Athens, Georgia, where the university is home with the dogs. How about them? And went from there to the University of Virginia and on to McKenzie's. I've had a very great and lucky and fortunate path, but something that people may not know about me when they look at me, they look at me and they maybe think, hey, that guy grew up with a country club.
8:57That kid grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth. But growing up, we didn't have any money. We were not blessed. My parents got divorced. We had to live above my father's furniture store. He had a little antique store in Athens. We had to drive his furniture delivered. Steering column didn't work. Only two seats. I was surfing in the back. My sister got the front seat. So I think that that experience gave me a lot of thankfulness for where I landed later in life, just to say how thankful I am for where I am today. But it also puts a chip on your shoulder. So went to the University of Virginia, went to McKinsey, worked at a private equity fund in Dallas for five years, and then started Grayrock about 11 years ago.
9:34And I like to think that that core part of me survives in some gray rock ethos of, on one hand, if you think it's bad, it's probably not as bad as it can be. And things are capable of getting better, but also just a genuine spirit of thankfulness for what we've been able to achieve professionally. As you're going through that educational experience and into McKinsey, into private equity, how did you balance that thought that you probably wanted to make money with, oh, this might be an area of interest for me as an individual in a career path? I actually started out as an English major and a religious studies major, and I landed in the commerce school at UVA.
10:11My joke is I ended up a religious studies minor, so I sold my soul to the devil in the comm school, but tried to make it up to God on the back half. Look, I think that's a lot of who you're surrounded by. UVA really did allow you the capacity to explore what you wanted to do with your life. I was really passionate about reading, really passionate about writing. I thought I wanted to be a professor. And also just studying religion, not from your FCA and Young Life leader, but with an academic lens is a totally different ball of wax. I think the Commerce School at UVA gave us a real exposure to various elements of business and a phenomenal network that you're able to tap into, ask questions of folks who have been through it, seen it.
10:51And really, at the end of the day, the reason why I started at McKinsey was I didn't really know what industry I wanted to be in. I kind of had a hunch I wanted to do private equity over, call it hedge funds, but I worked on telecom. I worked in a casino. I worked for a jet manufacturer. I worked for ultimately energy. And that's how I got to Dallas was my last client at McKinsey was the CEO of a large corporation. They'd had a leveraged buyout. He did very well for himself and hired McKinsey to say, help me invest this money in the energy ecosystem well. That's how this all got started. I can remember asking in that conference room, I've never done oil and gas.
11:27What is this? They want me to do the financial model. You little guy. I had a guy explain it to me in 15 minutes and there was all of a sudden an oil and gas expert. That's really what I valued about UVA to McKinsey to then energy private equity. It was a circuitous route, but I do believe I landed in the right spot. What was it about the energy space that caught your attention? It was probably that I had it wrong. So I started out at McKinsey being solar is the answer. I meant this at my core. I just thought we got to build solar tomorrow and I'm super concerned and we've got to get this done.
12:00And then getting inside of an actual energy transaction. In this case, we were investing in Marcellus shale natural gas, getting inside of that and understanding, oof, there are some real trade-offs involved with a one size fits all solar solution. So understanding these butterfly effects that are really complicated. I'll give you an example. What's a butterfly effect in energy? In the North Sea, so by the United Kingdom, they've built out a lot of wind power. And a couple of years ago, there were insufficient wind speeds to produce enough power. That means we've got to fire up some natural gas power plants.
12:36Okay. So they import natural gas from the Middle East to fire up in United Kingdom power plants. Not a big deal so far. Well, the Middle East still needs power, what do they use? They use crude oil. So in this butterfly effect of the system, you actually have created more carbon emissions. You didn't see that one coming. So we see those butterfly effects of how the energy ecosystem is actually completely intertwined with each other. Energy is like pharma. If you're a tourist, you're probably going to get your face ripped off. And if you don't know a component piece of the energy ecosystem, or maybe the second and third layer of the onion, you can really miss something really bad.
13:08What did you learn in your time in private equity that led you to form your own firm? It was a small firm and I was in charge of the land component piece of the business. We owned about a million acres on shore, largely in the Marcella Shale, but some in the Eagleford down in South Texas as well. And I learned about myself that I really liked talking to landowners. I really liked trying to get deals done in this kind of nuts and bolts fashion. I also learned about myself, I don't like complicated financial engineering. I don't like inserting puts and calls and preferred equity and ring fencing debt securities because maybe I'm too dumb to understand it, but I think that it just ends up with misalignment and transactions where everybody thinks they're on the same page, but they end up really not on the same page.
13:52And I'm very thankful for that experience for my old firm. They gave me an enormous amount of responsibility very early. And I don't think I could have gotten that exposure at another firm just in terms of really being in charge of very large investment programs very early on, all the way from the ground level to the CEO and making sure that they were put together correctly. So what was that process like deciding to launch on your own and then making it happen? When we started GrayRock, we had a thesis focused on natural resources, which is code for oil and gas. It's illegal to call it oil and gas these days.
14:25So it's natural resources. It's all been rebranded. We had a thesis around a little niche asset class called non-operated working interests, something most people probably never heard of. I saw a space that was very large in terms of CapEx that's happening every single year. I saw a space that by virtue of having that background and land, people didn't understand. And then I had that McKinsey toolkit to make a really pretty PowerPoint. That was really it. So really, it was about having faith that you had a correct investment thesis, having faith that there was a disjointed and durable structural investable opportunity and understanding that you were going to be able to win for investors by virtue of putting money into that part of the ecosystem.
15:07It was a unique investment thesis. So in that initial thesis, what was it and then how'd you go ahead and implement on it? So non-op is really just a fancy way of saying you're a participant drilling wells and you're para-pursue with the operator. So the operator might be a name that you'd recognize like Exxon or Chevron, but it may be a name you don't recognize like an Admiral Permian or something along those lines. And this was the advent of shale. So shale was just a large theme in upstream, a lot of capital chasing it. And our perspective was there was too much money chasing it. It sounds ironic to say, hey, we're going to go out and raise money against a shale investment thesis when our core thesis was shale was overcapitalized, but it was overcapitalized on that operated side of the ball.
15:51Really, who's drilling the wells? There was tons of private equity capital available, tons of public equity available, tons of debt options available, and you were overcapitalizing a commodity. What we saw is the opportunity to get our partners into effectively the same geology, the same kind of upside economics, but at a really material discount because nobody was trying to buy that asset. Sounds really weird. And you might say, well, okay, so you're buying maybe a 10 % piece underneath EOG. Why is EOG selling you 10 % of their asset at a discount? that doesn't make any sense. So we had to explain to investors just the nature of how these assets actually come together is due to the private mineral ownership in the United States of America.
16:35Most other countries, Saudi or Canada or something along those lines, the oil and gas is owned by the crown. It's owned by the government. The United States is actually quite unique in that individuals can own it. There's a great quote by J. Paul Getty where he said, the meek shall inherit the earth, but not its mineral rights. So the examples we would use with investors, is we say, hey, very rarely is there one mineral owner that's leasing to EOG. There's actually maybe 10 mineral owners. There was one mineral owner, but that was granddaddy and he's passed away. And now 10 cousins own a ranch together.
17:05Seven of those cousins live in San Antonio, use the same attorney, EOG finds them. Three are in San Francisco and New York. And long story short, we're able to find those three other cousins to get access to an EOG operated position at a material discount versus what operators had to pay. That was a thesis that turned out to be true over the past decade of the shale revolution. And I think that's really an important theme in energy is anytime something's overcapitalized, you're likely to lose your shirt. Just because a market is growing doesn't mean you're making money. That's a really hard thing for people to grasp in energy.
17:42How did you go about the process of finding that niche? If you phrase a question in the right way, that's 90 % of the answer or something. It starts with us writing down, there's a real problem here, and it looks like X, Y, and Z. I tend to be a nerd. So we write pretty in-depth quarterly letters that are effectively energy surveys. Here's what's going on in the entire energy ecosystem. And I mentioned that these things are interconnected. Really what you're trying to find is where is there a durable dislocation? There could be dislocations in energy, but they might last 90 days or something along those lines.
18:16Where is there a durable multi-year dislocation? And that takes a lot of study. There really isn't a shortcut. You're going to spend hours reading, talking to people, looking at transactions, losing almost all of those transactions, by the way. The best thing to be in energy is cheap. So that's really what we do is we're very diligent on trying to find dislocated energy opportunities that provide great full cycle returns for our partners. That includes entry costs. There's this concept of half cycle. How much does it cost to just do a project? And then there's the full cycle. What do I have to pay to get access to that project?
18:49And that's where a lot of people lose in energy. So for the last decade, certainly in the public and political realm, there's been a very big shift in ESG movement and how people were viewing natural resource investments. How did that impact what you were doing in your investment activity and then as a business at Grey Rock? That's a really great question. So we've been really blessed. Our partners have been phenomenal and true partners. They tend to be endowment foundation, pension, insurance, capital. We started in 2013, roundabout, call it 2018. I had independently several partners. They kind of looked like Lauren Messer or Amy Diamond or Mike Berry and Christy Craig or Elisa Maul.
19:31And they said, hey, look, there's a voice on our investment committee and they're saying the word carbon. And we're friends. I want you to know this conversation's over before it starts. That actually gave GrayRock a significant advantage relative to other energy firms by virtue of starting to search for how are we going to invest in the low carbon economy starting in 2018. The ESG pressures at your typical endowment foundation, the vast majority didn't take the form of you have to divest all of your natural resources. It typically took the form of you're not allowed to invest again in natural resources.
20:05So our partners were very supportive of saying, hey, you helped us navigate shale, which was an overcapitalized commodity, oil and gas. and typically the average investor in that space got burned. I have the same gut instinct about carbon, that decarbonizing investments are also overcapitalized. Can you help me figure out where we can put money to work? Because they were coming to us with a real challenge, which looked like saying, I need to have an impact on carbon. I can't sacrifice a penny of returns. I walked away from these conversations thinking, oh no, they want us to do renewables. And anybody who reads our stuff.
20:40Well, no, I'm super bearish on renewables. And it is important in the energy transition to think about it. But there's two hats to wear. There's a humanity hat, what's best for humanity. And then there's an investor hat. And I have to think with my investor hat on. And I see renewables as just a massively overcapitalized space. It will likely torch capital on multiples of what happened to shale. I was really worried because we looked at renewables every which way. We said, hey, well, we have a land team at Cray Rock. Why don't we go out and buy renewables royalties. Let's go buy the land underneath the wind farm or underneath the solar development and we get a royalty.
21:13And well, we sized that market, that entire market. This was several years ago, it was about$2 billion annually in the United States. And we had friends that have already raised a billion dollars to do it. That points to not great full cycle returns. So then we looked at doing renewables in regulated utility territories. We looked at doing offshore Gulf of Mexico wind. We looked at every which way we could on quote unquote clean power and ultimately had to settle on, this isn't where we should spend our time or our partner's dollars. And in that process of multiple years of study, obviously you have COVID, there's a weird interruption there, came up the learning curve on carbon capture specifically, methane abatement opportunities, different ways of playing electrification as well.
21:50And we're very fortunate to be able to get investor dollars in to start chasing what I like to call, credit Dan Pickering with this, emissions transition investments. It's not really an energy transition. It's an emissions transition. The emissions is what we're trying to get at. So that's really how we were able to parlay, call it our upstream natural resources expertise into an energy transition thesis. How do you manage the business part of that? Because you've put investments in the ground. As they come off, revenues could go away. You've got a team of people that are doing one thing, and now you got to start looking at another thing.
22:26How did you navigate through all that? What we did was we rolled up the assets from our oil and gas private equity funds and actually did a D-Spec transaction with them and created a public company out of it called Granite Ridge. Get at Gray Rock and Granite Ridge. We're excellent at branding. And we were able to take that public in fall of 2022. That actually solved for a handful of things. Number one, that's all for called a fee stream for our employees to make sure that if I'm a traditional reservoir engineer, I'm a traditional landman. I'm not necessarily as plugged in on our net zero thesis, but I still have hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars of value I need to be looking after as a fiduciary.
23:06It also solved for another thing, which is a little bit nuanced for the endowments, which is if you put your CIO hat on, you say, okay, I actually really like the exposure that Grayrock's given me. It's high cash flow yield. It's not levered. It's diversified. It's an inflation hedge. So by virtue of handing shares in a permanent capital vehicle to those endowments, they can actually maintain that exposure at their will. So if they need to sell and get liquidity, that's phenomenal. If it's, I need a spot in my portfolio that's permanent capital exposure to this inflation hedge, you have the option of doing that.
23:44I still see things as super rosy on upstream. This may sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but when I talk to people about energy, I say two things are simultaneously true and it will not make sense. One is I think oil's off to the races. And I do say this to CIOs with a, hey, think with your inflation hat on. This thing is the input to almost every product in humanity. And the reason why is largely the world has lulled itself into a soft slumber on the back of stable US shale oil supply. And we're going to run out of it. Like all reservoirs, we're going to run out of it.
24:16And you're going to start finding oil needs to come out of less stable regimes and or more difficult geological places. But I also point to them about demand on the oil side. And I say, you may read articles about electric vehicles and hydrogen and all these energy transition theses, you've actually already lived in a world of all hydrogen airplanes and electric vehicles. You just didn't realize it. It was in May of 2020. Not a car on the road, not an airplane in the sky, not a cruise ship on the ocean. Oil prices went to negative$37 a barrel. What do you think global demand was down? You think it was 50 % that month, 70 %?
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24:51It was down 10%. So that coupled with the emerging world wants to be like the lucky 1 billion of us that are energy rich. The contra of the supply problem is a sticky demand problem. And that looks like if you took your average African citizen and gave them 80 % less oil than you and I use, you would consider this camping, by the way. That would increase global oil demand by 30%. So that's three times the COVID effect. That's the challenge on the traditional energy side. And I walk folks through that. This is where I say the second big overarching thesis here is the drumbeat of carbon is only going to get louder.
25:29Currently, Republicans under the age of 35, 80 % of them say climate should be in our top five list of policy issues. Nobody talks about that. That means that the United States is quickly headed to a super majority climate position on policy. Carbon will be a commodity that rivals oil and gas in scope and scale. And you need to be ready for that. Buddies in West Texas that say CO2 is food for trees, full stop. And then I have a lot more evangelist folks on, I'll pick on San Francisco here, who say, we need to stop all fossil fuel production tomorrow in order to solve it. What I try to do is I try to help folks to this centrist position on energy to say, both are important to try to achieve simultaneously.
26:13As you looked at supply-demand characteristics of different environmentally friendly ways of investing as you were going down the path to where you ended up with carbon emissions, What are some of the simple math equations that led you to pass on wind or solar or some of the other projects that you see? Let's start with renewables. Renewables are overcapitalized, and it's not even close. It's massively overcapitalized. When you look at areas where renewables are built, you're not creating too much electricity. You're creating too much electricity at a certain time. They are time-delimited electrons.
26:50So some specific examples are power prices in Western Oklahoma are negative 20 % of the time today. They will pay you to take the power. What in the world? That doesn't sound right. Well, if you think about it this way, hey, I'm a Google or I'm a Meta and I want to be 100 % renewable power, but my data center might sit in Illinois next to a coal plant. I'll finance a wind farm in Oklahoma with renewable energy credits or something along those lines. I've cleaned up my power, even though I didn't use those electrons. Not a lot of folks are moving to Western Oklahoma. So there's nobody actually in terms of a demand or load sink for those electrons.
27:28And the federal government says, hey, I'll pay you$10 if you produce a renewable electron and somebody uses it. Well, if there's nobody to use it, then Matt pays Ted$5. I get 10 from the government, so I'll pay you five, just find some use for this electron. And it creates negative prices, which is really weird. That happens at high noon in California as well. So that's where I say renewables are a phenomenal thing in an energy portfolio. When you push renewables to try to be 100 % of the ecosystem, that's where you create problems. And then folks might say, well, that's really simple. Just use a battery.
27:59A battery is a sponge for these excess electrons, and it can grab them and then resell them, and that's perfect. Well, taken to an extreme, we did some math on Germany, for example. Germany's trying to push an energy Vende policy that's effectively heavily only renewables. And the back of the envelope math says, well, in order for Germany to be 100 % renewables plus 100 % battery, the battery piece of that equation was$270 trillion. I don't think people understand how large the energy ecosystem actually is because it sounds good in a soundbite, but in actual dollars, these things are massive investments.
28:34So that's some of the stuff that we do is we look at, okay, what's the logical extent of this ecosystem? Sustainable aviation fuel, another example, are people willing to pay a premium for an airplane ticket? Well, depends. They are if it's 1 % of your airplane ticket. They're not if it's 100 % of your airplane ticket. So we try to think through these ecosystems. And then what we really found was that carbon capture was largely being ignored. It had gotten a bad rap. What I tell investors is saying you do carbon capture is like saying I do real estate. Okay. Are you industrial outside of Dallas, Fort Worth?
29:06Are you building one of these super high skyscrapers on Central Park? Are you hotels? There are just so many ways to do it. And what we saw was if you focused your investments on the right style of emitter, you can actually make private equity returns. So typically when you read an article that says, we've tried carbon capture, it doesn't work. These doofuses in Texas just don't understand how the world works. Typically they're pointing to one coal-fired power plant. It's the Petronova plant in Texas. Decarbonizing coal is where humanity wants to go with carbon capture. And I agree with that. I think that's a phenomenal thing.
29:40Now, that being said, when I burn coal for power, I emit CO2, but I emit mainly other stuff. The CO2 in the emission stream of a coal-fired power plant is only about 10 % CO2. Ambient air is like 80 % nitrogen. What does that mean? It means at the tail end of a coal plant, I could have put a very special sponge, either a sorbent or a solvent. That's typically in the billions of dollars just for that sponge. It's high on CapEx, it's high on OpEx. It means downtime for the plant because it's technically complex as well. Really where you want to focus in carbon capture are in industries that emit pure CO2 as an industrial byproduct.
30:17Industrial accident is a better way to think about it. So those are really ethanol plants, ammonia, so fertilizer, and then natural gas processing. Those are the industries where this is applicable in the immediate term and can make private equity returns. It tends to be pretty nuanced. We're going to take a quick break in the action to tell you about SRS Aquium. Want to make sure your M &A processes aren't stuck in the past? Partner with a company that's been defining the future of dealmaking for nearly two decades instead. When it comes to M &A innovation, SRS Aquium has reshaped the way that deals get done, streamlining processes for maximum efficiency and minimum headaches.
31:00professional shareholder representation, online M &A payments, digital stockholder solicitation. SRS Aquium pioneered each and continues to set the bar for game-changing innovation. So leave the days of disjointed deal management behind and define your future with SRS Aquium, the smartest way to run a deal. Learn more at srsaquium.com. That's S-R-S-A-C-U-M. P-Q-U-I-O-M.com. And now, back to the show. So we take it to a higher level of what the case is on carbon capture. What are the characteristics that make carbon capture something that's attractive as an investor? It starts with the purity of CO2 emissions.
31:50There's three component pieces of carbon capture, capturing the CO2, transporting the CO2 through a pipeline, and sequestering it. So drilling an injection well and getting rid of that CO2. What is a variable that we really look at is this transport piece. That pipe is super expensive. What we're trying to do is sequester the CO2 that comes out of a plant gate as close to that plant gate as possible. The idea here is it reduces CAPEX for pipeline transport. It also reduces the number of stakeholders you have. So those are the component pieces. And then you have to have an emitter who's aligned with you.
32:23So those are the component pieces of what makes a good project. I guess that might be a good time to hit on. Who pays you to do this? How in the heck do you make money doing carbon capture? And it's actually through a tax credit. Tax credit's got a really weird name. It's called 45Q. Really what that tax credit says is, hey, if Ted goes out and he takes one ton of carbon dioxide gas and he injects it into the earth, permanently getting rid of it, we'll pay him$85 per ton that he does via tax credit for a period of 12 years. This is an old tax credit. This thing was created under George W. Bush at$20 a ton.
32:57Too low of a price to really do anything with. It got increased in price again,$50 a ton. Under Donald Trump. I don't think either one of those gentlemen have a brandishing of the environmental movement in terms of today's politics. And then it got enhanced again under Biden and Manchin at$85 a ton. So that's really how you make money doing carbon capture. The vast majority of the economics are on the basis of that tax credit. So walk me through how you lay out the risk reward of the investment opportunity. So you're putting in this pipe that helps you extract carbon. You're going to get a tax credit from the government for it.
33:31How do you think about money in, money out? A good project in carbon capture might be an unlevered 20 to 30 % rate of return might be somewhere around three to six times your money. These are competitive with traditional private equity economics. The weird thing about 45Q is it's not a supply demand thing. It's$85 a ton. If one plant gets built, it's$85 a ton. If 1 ,000 plants get built, it's$85 a ton. And it goes up with CPI. I like to say in the energy transition, we've all become government contractors. We're all working for the DOD because the only folks that have deep enough pockets to do this at scale are governments.
34:07For some sense of scale, the voluntary carbon market. So you're Microsoft and you go out and you say, hey, I'm going to buy X tons for saving this rainforest and offset our corporate emissions. That global market is about$3 billion a year. For some sense of scale of how big the IRA is, the IRA is about a trillion dollars. It is a tactical nuclear weapon against the energy transition. That's why you're seeing very large firms in red states having very large investment programs against this. So that looks like Duke and Dominion and DTE and Southern Company and Exxon and Chevron and Shell and Air Liquide and CF and Nutrien and Koch Industries and Little old gray rock.
34:46When you talk about project economics, our mission from our partners is you have a material impact on carbon, but you're delivering returns to me that are competitive with my traditional private equity portfolio. I'm not a charity. That's actually a complicated part of the energy transition because there is charitable capital out there. Bill Gates doesn't need to make a return. It is a difficult thing to swim through. Again, it's focused on these full cycle returns. What are the complexities of the operations of making this work? let's start with what are we doing when you say sequester co2 really what you're doing is you're taking co2 from an emitter and you're drilling an injection well down into the earth it goes about a mile into the earth and what you're looking for is you're looking for geology the geology looks something like a cap rock which means an impermeable seal of rock so you could think of a slate patio or something you could spray gas at that thing all day long no gas molecules are getting through that, you're looking for that seal of rock, that portion of rock might be a 10-story building of rock.
35:46The Earth's crust is enormous. And you're looking for that rock sitting on top of a porous sedimentary rock. If you've ever held in your hands like pumice or sandstone, it has little nooks and crannies in it. The problem we're trying to fight as humans is the CO2 actually wants to go to the area of lowest pressure. It wants to go up in the atmosphere. It does not want to go one mile into the Earth. So we've got to add some energy to it. So we're going to send it down a mile into the earth. Now think about how heavy one mile of rock pushing down on you is. It's a lot of pressure. Let's go back to chemistry class.
36:18What happens to gas under pressure? It's no longer gas. It's actually fluid. That CO2 is going to flow through that rock. One of my partners, John, says it's like pouring water on a bucket of marbles. It's not going to go into a marble, but it's sure going to get in and around these nooks and crannies. All we're doing is repurposing technology that's been in the traditional energy ecosystem for 50 years. So it's not a venture capital exercise that we're up to. It's technical in nature. It's not tech risk in nature. There's only 10 or something permanent sequestration wells operating in the United States right now.
36:51It's very safe. No known industrial accidents tied to injection. What makes an oil and gas operations very dangerous? Well, the reason why humanity likes is it explodes. It lights on fire, whereas CO2 puts out fire. If you wanted to think about it this way, a CO2 spill is the default. That's what you're doing every single day. You're spilling tons of CO2 in the atmosphere. Permitting is a problem though. Now that you're a government contractor, you got to play by their rules. So that's why you don't see so many projects online currently, but there's a large queue of these things coming. If you look at a single one of these projects, how do you think about laying out probability distribution of outcomes?
37:26When you're analyzing one of these projects, there's effectively a handful of component pieces you need to worry about. From an operational perspective, you need to worry about things like what is the capex to drill well? What is your cost to leased landowners? What's the opex to power the compressor to send that CO2 down hole? What's your power cost there? What's the royalty rate that you got to pay the emitter? Or what's the deal structure there? Those are all important, vital underwriting things. And then I'd say there's the idiosyncratic. Does this law get repealed? Does the law change? Does a spill happen?
37:58Theoretically, you're saying they don't happen, but there's a good friend of mine, John Cox, says risk is the price you never thought you'd pay. So be ready for it. Those are the component pieces of underwriting. And then really at the end of the day, you're taking technical expertise on geology and candidly whether or not that rock can support that volume of CO2, or if you need to go to a different rock. And that will drive a lot of your unit economics on these in terms of how far does the CO2 need to go. We were looking at an ethanol plant, great ethanol facility, but it's bounded by a river on one side and a town on the other.
38:31Do you want to build a CO2 pipeline under a river or through a town? So that's the thing that deprioritizes a project is to say, it's not impossible, but in the energy transition, this shouldn't be project number one. Let's do the lowest hay and fruit first. We are going to get to coal plants and natural gas plants, a hundred percent certain in the next decade. why don't we start with these pyramiders first that are more layups operationally? And then let's work on where is CO2 more dilute? So that might be cement, iron and steel, and power. So when you've developed this thesis and clearly understand in the weeds how this all works, how have you gone about implementing that as an investment strategy?
39:07At the end of the day, at Greyrock, we own a couple of development firms that have their own teams of technical experts, management, finance, accounting, land, geology, et cetera. So those teams are at the forefront of talking to emitters. Several of our portfolio companies we just created, one was started with friends and family money, and we came in and massively capitalized them, let's say. So then they're approaching emitters. Your goal is to make this a great deal all around. You're trying to make sure the landowners make money, the emitter makes money, our firm and investors make money. And that's really what's a component piece of pulling a deal together.
39:41So a lot of times these are structured as joint ventures, things of that nature where you definitely want the plant incentivized to stay online. They are financially healthy. So that's really the component piece is it's a Venn diagram of where do you have an emitter that's emitting pure CO2? Where do you have geology that's local? Landowners that will cooperate and are aligned with you. There's two portfolio companies that we have that work on this, Vault 44.01, which is the molecular weight of carbon dioxide, and then Carbon Cycle. And Vault's really focused on ethanol plants. Carbon Cycle's really focused on chemicals and natural gas processing.
40:13And that's how a deal comes together with an emitter. I had to say, what's the nexus of value here? It's the emissions. Ironically, by virtue of putting a price on carbon, you've actually made carbon valuable under the IRA. So as you've studied this ecosystem, looking for these little niche opportunities that look like great investments under the theme of something where you feel a lot of things are overcapitalized, where have you looked and found other opportunities? We think there's too much capital chasing renewables and renewables are actually disrupting our grid system. They're causing intraday price volatility.
40:44They're causing electricity to be less reliable. That has actually, in a weird way, placed weight on the value of a dispatchable electron. The value of an electron that you can say, I want you on or off, because you can't really tell the wind to blow or tell the sun to shine. So in electrification, for example, we've been chasing weird problems. You'll start to get the theme that all of our problems tend to be a little weird. But the weird problem looks like there's upstream companies that are flaring natural gas. So why does this happen? A lot of times when an operator is drilling a well, that well is mainly for the oil economics.
41:21And if the gas is priced too cheaply, there's not enough money in the ecosystem to pay for a pipeline to get it out of there, or the pipeline's already filled. That causes this friction where operators flare natural gas and burn it off. That is a terrible thing. It's terrible for the environment. It's actually terrible for the upstream operators. It's terrible for the mineral owner. It's just one of these inefficiencies of life. So we have a firm, Conduit, that goes to these firms and says, hey, in lieu of you flaring methane, which is very bad for the environment as well, why don't we put that methane into some Rolls-Royce hybrid engines?
41:56So they're part battery, part thermal. And instead of getting value by selling natural gas molecules, let's get value by selling electrons to the grid. It's decarbonizing. It reduces CO2e by about 40%. I think that one of the worst kept secrets out there is AI is very power intensive. And these data center developers are in an arms race. They are facing a challenge which looks like, hey, if I want to plug into a grid system, it takes me five to six years to do so. That's an eternity in their arms race. Whereas our team can have them fired up in under 12 months. So we're a bridge power solution to get a data center developed there, but in a decarbonizing way.
42:33So those are examples of stuff where we see, where is there an inefficiency? Inherently, I'm telling you there's a problem in renewables, which is if you went full merchant on renewables, there's no market for your electrons. Who's going to solve that in five or seven years from now? And they're fine for right now. Who's going to solve that? Is that a vulture debt guy who goes in and buys a mez piece and owns a free facility? There's so many different ways that you could play this over time. We have another problem that we've been solving recently, which is around orphaned oil and gas wells. So an orphan well is, think of a well without an owner.
43:06It's exactly what it sounds like. It sounds weird, but there's at least 100 ,000, some people estimate up to a million orphan wells in the United States. This isn't Exxon or Chevron doing this. This is like if Matt Miller drilled a well in 1949, but Matt dies penniless with no errors. These wells have no owner and they're leaking methane. Methane is about 30 times more potent to the atmosphere than CO2. It's a definite greenhouse gas. So our team goes out, measures these methane leaks, plugs the well, permanently stopping it with cement, and sells voluntary offset credits to technology firms, financial services firms that need to offset their own corporate emissions.
43:38So those are some areas of the energy transition where we found there's not as much competition or this ecosystem is sufficiently nuanced. And carbon capture, well, you need to know subsurface and land and all those traditional energy skill sets. You need to be talking to emitters. You also need to know tax law. It's a weird nexus where GrayRock's able to try to play in the energy transition. With the broader energy transition investment opportunity set over capitalized, how do you think this plays out over the next five or 10 years? I tell investors, despite the fact that we raise money in the energy transition, I'd argue vehemently there's too much money in the energy transition.
44:11It's just concentrated in the hands of very large funds who can't get out of bed without writing a billion dollar equity check. What our goal is, is to try to build seedlings for those platforms to eat. My hope is that LPs don't get burned in the energy transition because I think if they do, it sets us all back on what's common goal for everyone. I think that you're going to see government stepping in and creating more and more policy. So the United States under the IRA has picked a carrot strategy. We're going to reward you for behaving in a way that we want you to behave. Is there a stick strategy down the road?
44:44Probably. Look, the SEC is making people measure their emissions. Scope one, scope two, scope three. When the government's asking you to measure something, I got news for you. That thing's going to be taxed. That thing is going to be taxed at some point in time, which is a whole different revenue source for the energy transition over time. I think that there will be low-hanging fruit to achieve in the energy transition, but I think it'll take decades. This is not something that's going to happen overnight, especially when you consider things like energy equity. The impact on raising people's energy prices too fast.
45:12Bill Gates talks about a green premium. Inherently, all of these things are just more expensive to do. You can't do that too fast because the reality of the situation is we're trying to fight for a world 100 years from now where we're really worried about people dying. If you do it too fast, people don't die 100 years from now. They die tomorrow. If you're in Chicago and you can't afford your heating bill, you die tonight. There's a tension there on the transition, but I think it's durable and I think it's here for decades to come. If you were tasked with putting significantly more scale dollars to work in this space and entering in some of these places that you feel are overcapitalized, where have you seen at least some opportunities that people can get reasonable returns from their capital?
45:53I'm going to cheat on your question a little bit. If capital was not an issue, I think it's in nuclear. Nuclear energy is extremely safe. It's zero emissions. It is dispatchable, baseload power. It's an old technology. There's not some tech risk around fission technology. If I was king for a day and I created the United States climate policy, it would look something like a Manhattan Project 2.0. It would look something like we're going to build a thousand nuclear reactors in the United States, some crazy number. I'm going to have the Army Corps of Engineers do it. And then once a plant is built, we're going to auction it off to a utility.
46:26Therefore, utilities don't bear the cost overruns. So if you look at Vogel, the most recent nuke plant to come online, I think Southern Company had said it was going to be$14 billion and ended up being$40 billion. You can't do that too many times. So we have a real problem, which is that ecosystem needs more at-bats, but each at-bat is too expensive for private corporations, largely due to regulation. That's where I think you could have a really material impact. And if you took 50 or 100-year time horizon on those investments, it would be universe-changing. I think one that I'm bearish on is electric vehicles.
46:57There's several things about EVs that are, when you dive in. They're just not a good fit for your average customer. And I'm just putting my United States lens on here. They're very expensive. The charging time, the range anxiety, and all these component pieces are something to think about. I actually think the solution set for the US is going to be hybridization of everything. So if I can take a car, it doesn't need a 300-mile battery. It needs a 30-mile battery. Realistically, that would probably reduce our personal CO2 emissions by like 95%. The other thing that I'd point out to people here is the battery supply chain is an unmitigated disaster.
47:29It is OPEC on steroids. China controls over 90 % of the rare earth refining capacity. For some sense of scale, OPEC is 13 members and controls about 30 % of the global oil market. So it's 3X has concentrated here. 99.9 % of the world's lithium reserves are in the hands of just four countries, China, Chile, Argentina, Australia, none of which are the United States. I think it's bad energy policy for us to say, hey, we've been fighting OPEC for decades and decades and decades. Let's do it again, just with a different cast of characters. So that's where I think you will see things that look like the hybridization model where you don't disrupt people's actual lifestyles.
48:06What are some of the other, say, misperceptions that you see in the space? Natural gas. Oh man, people hate fossil fuels. They just hate them. What we try to tell people is natural gas globally has been the largest decarbonization project by far. The United States, by virtue of fracking, has natural gas prices that are just structurally lower than the rest of the globe. They are 80 % lower than Europe. That's why you're seeing people like BASF move to the United States. It is actually genuinely cheaper for folks to operate here. When I turn off a coal plant and turn on a natural gas plant instead, I'm at 50 % less CO2.
48:45And this is one of the largest decarbonization projects. And there's no carbon credits attached to this thing. There's no IRA. There's no nasty incentives. It just got cheaper to burn natural gas versus coal. And when you look at the delta between if I move from a coal plant to a natural gas plant and a natural gas plant to a renewables plant, that first step has 2.5 times the environmental impact. It is still labeled as an evil fossil fuel. But I actually think natural gas is the battery that's going to get all this stuff done. It is dispatchable. It is online. It's reliable. It's cleaner. It does emit some CO2.
49:20But I tend to say, hey, look, let's move from 100 units to 50. Let's worry about the next 50 next. People tend to lump oil and gas. Well, they're used for two totally fundamentally different things. Oil is used for transportation and plastics and jet fuel and stuff like that. Natural gas is largely used for power, heating. We're not burning crude oil in our power plants and we're not gassing up our cars with natural gas. So I think that's just been lost. The United States has reduced its CO2 emissions since 2005, largely on the back of fracking and getting that natural gas molecule out. I wish that there wasn't evangelism against natural gas because I think it solves for this energy equity and cleaning up and all this other stuff.
49:55Any others? This is the other thing that I tell people in the energy transition is it's going to sound really cheesy, but it's a phrase from Bible study. And the phrase from Bible study is, if hospitals are for sick people, then the church is for sinners. What does that mean? So when you're sick, you go to the hospital to get fixed. Don't worry that you see a sinner in the pews on Sunday mornings. That's actually what you want. They're there to get fixed. The same thing is true of emitters. If you start this conversation with X, Y, and Z company in Tulsa, Oklahoma is the devil. You actually have set the energy transition back, in my opinion.
50:32These are not bad people that work at these firms. They really genuinely are not. They're reacting to market forces on demand of their core product. for some that may have more evangelical opinions on this transition is just to say, look, at the end of the day, you may not be welcome in that conference room in Shreveport. You may not be welcome in Midland, Texas. And what we try to do is merge these worlds together, is just to say, hey, when we're in those conference rooms, realistically, we're not bringing up climate. We just aren't. We're bringing up money. And when we're in other conference rooms, we talk about how we're cleaning up the operations of these firms.
51:07So that's where I think that There is a huge opportunity in the transition is to be that bridge that helps those two camps talk to each other. This situation's become politically imbued, but it shouldn't be. So we just try to help bridge that. Matt, I want to make sure I get a chance to ask you a couple of closing questions. What is your favorite hobby or activity outside of work and family? I'm a golfer, I suppose would be my favorite hobby. Not a very good one, but I like getting outside and it's really pretty. And my wife's from Augusta, so I got some good hometown baseball there. What's one fact that most people don't know about you?
51:40People don't see. When my parents got divorced when I was a little kid, we moved 13 times in under three years. I'm very thankful for where I am. Very, very thankful. Anybody who says money doesn't buy a happiness, I'd argue also probably hasn't ever had zero of it. It is a very motivating factor over time. What's your biggest pet peeve? My biggest pet peeve is when people don't do what you say you're going to do. Closing table retrade. I'm going to sell you an asset for$100. Oh, did I say 100? I'm at 130 or something along those lines. Just let your yes be your yes and your no be your no. So that's really probably my biggest pet peeve is when people aren't being honest with each other.
52:19Which two people have had the biggest impact on your professional life? I'm going to give a random shout out here. Kevin Stout, when we were 28 and started in GrayRock, I sent a cold email to Kevin at Spider and he came into our fund one. But for the grace of God, I have no idea why he did it. We were so young. My partner, Kurt, has a phrase where he says, we dance with those that brung you. For him and Lauren Messerv and Amy Diamond, Michelle Everard, I owe them a lot. And then I think that that's the investor piece. I won't name names here, but ironically, finding out what you don't like in business.
52:55So in some of my prior career paths, I learned if I ever employ people, I'm not going to treat that way. If I ever have investor capital, I'm not going to do that. I think that those are really important lessons to know just because look, the hours are long, but the years are short. What's the best advice you've ever received? It would probably be my mother. When you're going through a hard time, take a breath. The first hour is the worst hour. The second hour, second worst hour. Calm down. It's going to be okay. You're going to make it through. That patience and perseverance is important to have because, and this goes in family and this goes in business, you're going to have days where it's like, gosh, I just want to hang it up.
53:31This is brutal. And then you're going to have other days that are just absolutely euphoric and you have to experience the troughs in order to love the peaks. So I think that would be the best advice. And Matt, last one. What life lesson have you learned that you wish you knew a lot earlier in life? The capacity to change. There's a phrase I use for that, to have strong opinions, weakly held, and the capacity to change your mind. And this goes beyond investing. This can go into politics. This can go into relationships. It's just to say the capacity to change your mind shows an enormous level of maturity to say, I was wrong.
54:04I really was. You were right and I was wrong. There is nothing wrong with that. So that really is something that's a core tenant of also how we behave at Gray Rock. It's just to say, hey, you have an obligation to dissent. Maybe the firm doesn't go with you, but we also don't stifle. We're not trying to make sure that folks' opinions aren't heard, because then you're just surrounded by a bunch of sycophantic yes people. That's not helpful to anybody. That's an important lesson. Well, Matt, thanks so much for sharing your incredible insight and wisdom in this space. Thanks for having me. I really enjoyed it.
54:35Thanks for listening to the show. To learn more, hop on our website at capitalallocators.com, where you can join our mailing list, access past shows, learn about our gatherings, and sign up for premium content, including podcast transcripts, my investment portfolio, and a lot more. Have a good one and see you next time. Thank you.
From the publisher
Matt Miller is the Managing Director of Grey Rock Investment Partners. Matt co-founded Grey Rock as a traditional oil and gas manager in 2013. Today, the firm manages $1 billion across both natural resources and renewables by identifying attractive niches in each that do not tradeoff human interest for returns.
Our conversation covers Matt’s path to the energy sector and founding of Grey Rock, the ongoing need for natural resources, and the identification of dislocations that create niche opportunities. We turn to Grey Rock’s own ‘energy transition’ intended to resolve ESG pressures while meeting client return objectives, including the overcapitalization of most renewable strategies, discovery of an attractive niche in carbon capture, and complexity in making it work.
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