Last Data Ahead Of Fed Decision… And Commemorating The 25th Anniversary Of 9/11 9/11/26

22:57And I'm so honored and humbled for the fire department, the FDNY Foundation event next week. You know, our firemen and first responders are incredible, and they deserve to be honored. They work incredibly hard and take enormous risks to keep us all safe every single day. And it's really, it's just a privilege to participate in an event that really does a lot to try to support them. I mean, it's the most incredible fire department in the world here in New York, with I think over 15 ,000 firefighters and first responders. And they're just such a vital part of the city. And I'm pleased to be supporting them.

23:34But it's an interesting day of reflection for all of us. Yeah. Never forget is something that we say every year on this day and at a firm like Goldman Sachs and other places in the country. There are people who work at Goldman Sachs now who are not alive. I'm sure when this happened. So what does that mean when you say never forget for the firm and in what you do there and how you commemorate this day? Well, we always try to do a bunch to commemorate this day. And you're right. There are people. I mean, if you're 25 years old or less and, you know, we're a firm actually where 50 percent of the firm is in their 20s.

24:08So we have 45 ,000 employees around the world. 50 percent of the firm are in their 20s. So, you know, if you're in your 20s, you might have been born when this occurred, but you certainly don't have any, you know, any direct memory, you know, of this. And so I think it's important every year that we market and we commemorate it. But on the 25th, I think it's been more important. And so we've done a little bit more, you know, this year. We obviously observed a moment of silence at 846, and we actually broadcast in our building in New York, you know, something that I had written and read, you know, just kind of commemorating, you know, especially those lives that were lost, all the lives that were lost.

24:41and others that since, you know, because of medical conditions, you know, have further suffered. But we also every year do something from a community service perspective and find ways to give back and support the community. And I think, you know, there's a bright side to all of this because I remember so vividly afterwards how people thought downtown would never come back. And you look at how vibrant downtown is. This is a great story of resilience. It's a story of how people come together to really work together to show the best of what we are as a country, this great country. and it's important to talk about that and remember it, and really, we shouldn't need events like this to come together and do the right thing and really make progress as a community, and this is an important day to do that.

25:25David, we talk about the firm a lot on the show, as I'm sure you know. Since you took over in October of 2018, stocks up 360-something percent, broader markets up half of that, less than half of that, so you've obviously done a spectacular job, and we openly talk about it here, But with that comes opportunities like this. You get asked to do a lot of these types of events. But I know for a fact when they asked you almost a year ago, you said yes immediately to do the FDNY. Why? I've just always had such admiration for the FDNY. They really do keep us safe all the time. I think they're unsung heroes that don't get enough attention and recognition for the service that they provide.

26:06And, you know, my partner, Tony Pascarillo, has been involved in the FDNY Foundation for a long time. The firm has been big supporters of the foundation for a long time. I was just so humbled and flattered to be asked. I do get asked to do a lot of things, but this was an easy yes. It was an easy yes. And, you know, I'm thrilled to be a part. I know you also now for three years or four years have emceed the event. Yeah. No, I mean, that is small potatoes compared to what everybody does. But the fact that you're doing this, I know how thrilled everybody is. And on Thursday, there are going to be 1 ,500 people in Randall's Island, and it is a spectacular event.

26:39You know, folks should, if you can't go this year, you should think about going because you see these guys and gals up close and personal. And of all the events I go to every year, this is the one I look forward to the most. And this year, honoring you is a real thrill. I'm thrilled to do it. David, congratulations. And thank you also for reminding folks and being out there, because, again, I think it's it's important for us all to remember this sacrifice. And as you said, there's there's a lot of people that have not really endured this. Goldman has endured a lot in the last 25 years and to some sense, you've never been more vital.

27:12You talked about the vitality of kind of the city. Give us some sense of of where you think markets today in terms of policy. I feel like all we do is talk about policy and their impact on markets. Do you think it's any different than where we were 25 years ago? And obviously, 25 years ago, after 9-11, we were in a recession or we were on the verge of a recession. The Fed had to aggressively move. They flooded the market with liquidity. That was probably the right thing to do. You know, here we are talking about bond markets that equity markets aren't listening to. So weigh in on any of that because it's quite a perspective.

27:47And do you think markets are doing what they've always done? Yeah, it's I don't I don't think it's it's different this time. I mean, a big believer that it's never different this time. But I you know what I would say about 9-11, 9-11 was a very, very serious crisis. You know, the world, the word crisis is thrown around, you know, often in a variety of ways. 9-11 was a very, very serious crisis. And the effect of 9-11 is we massively scared ourselves as a society. And because we were so scared, it was it was a it was an unexpected, exogenous event. and it massively changed behavior. And that change in behavior led to a recession.

28:21And that required policy to start the recovery process. And of course, as we were talking about the rebirth, the recovery, we're very resilient. And of course we recovered and there will be other crises. But there's a big difference between a crisis and market gyrations and market volatility. And that was a significant crisis that required a lot of policy action. I think we're at a very, very interesting time. And, you know, I'm asked constantly about everything that's going on now. We're obviously in an enormous technology super cycle. We are in a complex moment around monetary policy with a change in Fed leadership and also what's been going on in the bond market, particularly over the course of the last few weeks.

29:02And, you know, I have no idea what's going to happen next week. I mean, I don't. I don't. I mean, the market's telling you there's a 90 percent chance that we're going to have a 25 basis point increase. but I have no idea what's going to happen. I have no idea what's going to happen in the next few months, but I'll tell you what I feel very, very strongly about. I feel very, very strongly about the fact in the context of the next five to 10 years that with this technology, with kind of U.S. preeminence and what we have going on as a technological innovative society with technology innovation that we have here, with the capital markets that we have here that are second to none, with the culture of kind of risk-taking and innovation we have in this country, there are going to be incredible productivity gains.

29:44There's going to be incredibly good things that are going to happen. But you know what? It's not going to be a straight line. Things are going to go wrong. We need guardrails and thoughtful public policy response and private sector working together to kind of say what's the right way to harness this technology, to control the technology. We've had technologies in the past that have been very, very scary. Think about the advent of nuclear weapons and how we had to, as a society, figure out how to control and regulate that. And so there's enormous opportunity, and I'm very, very optimistic, but I know there'll be bumps.

30:18The market will respond. The market's self-correcting, and we're self-correcting. We see what's going on, and we're resilient. We change. We evolve. And I don't think any of that's any different than it was 25 years ago. So you don't think it's going to be the end of mankind? AI is going to do something to end all of us. I mean, is that the black swan event? I would say that I am very, very confident that 10 years from now, if you want to sit down and have an interview about what's going on in the world, I can't tell you everything good and bad that will happen between now and then. A lot of good and bad will happen between now and then.

30:52But humanity will be here, in my humble opinion. And, you know, I'm going to live my life and work at my profession and love my kids, you know, with an assumption that that's a pretty good base case for us to live by. It's a date, David, 10 years from now, if not sooner. Thank you, and congratulations on the honor. Thank you very much. Thank you all for having me. I look forward to seeing you guys next week. Thank you so much. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs. Much more Fast Money in Two. The board recommends approving... Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting... To boost quarterly earnings...

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32:21When did work become so much work? The meeting about the meeting, the hundreds of files to find one insight, setting aside the things you want to do for the things that pop up. Your workday's gone. But what if the insight surfaced itself? Or you could ship the deck without the distractions. Gemini Enterprise helps you get that done. It's AI that knows your business with agents that take stuff off your plate. Make work less work with Gemini Enterprise from Google Cloud. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks wrapping up this week with gains today, snapping four-day losing streaks. The Dow jumping more than 500 points.

33:03As if the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 all up nearly a percent, but the indices were all negative for the week. Shares of Kroger nearly 3 percent higher today. The grocery store chain topping Q2 earnings estimates, but cutting its full-year same-store sales outlook as shoppers spend less due to inflation concerns. Kroger still down over 6 percent in 2026. Shares of Novo Nordisk 2 % lower after analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to an underweight, citing patent cliff concerns. Novo stock is now down over 15 % this year. Microsoft reportedly eyeing a massive data center push, looking to triple its computing power by 2032, according to Bloomberg.

33:38And shares of AstraZeneca falling after hours. As a pharma company saying its breast cancer treatment did not meet its primary goal in a phase three trial. Shares of Dell, this is worthy. worthy, topping the tape today, jumping 12 percent to another record. Analysts at RBC initiating the computer maker at Outperform,$640 price target saying AI infrastructure demand will drive accelerated growth. Shares of Dell have more than quadrupled already. Guess who's been on this trade for a long time? Karen Feynman. Karen Feynman. OK, mock me, if you will. No, we're not mowing you. No, we're not mowing you.

34:10No, we're not mowing you. No, we're not mowing you. No, we're not mowing you. Yeah. OK, that's all right. I'll take it. That was great. Yeah. No, I mean, well, this move, if you're I don't know if they got a little lucky with the timing of the Microsoft announcement today on that recommendation and that price target. I mean, it was such an absolutely extraordinary quarter, but there was more to it than just, you know, the margin improvement, the revenue improvement, the backlog, everything good like that. But also they talked about a one point two million server embedded server base that is, you know, 14G and they were at 17 now.

34:44So that's all new servers that have to get upgraded. I mean, the story is very good, and I think it has some legs still. It ain't cheap, but it's not crazy expensive. Coming up, the crude rally cooling off. Is this a short-term blip or sign of real relief on energy prices? A top analyst weighs in next. Fast Money's back in two.

35:08Welcome back to Fast Money. Oil prices pulling back today, breaking an eight-day winning streak. But WTI crude still up 10 percent just this week and diesel jumping to a record over six dollars for more and where energy prices are heading and the impact on the markets. Let's bring in Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Patrick, great to have you with us. Is the path higher here? It seems like it. Melissa, I think you're seeing a bit of profit taking after a very strong week. That's a lot of escalations. There's a lot of news to digest out there. Certainly, the Saudis shutting down the east-west pipeline is really what's captivating the market.

35:42After we saw Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, new escalations between the U.S. and Iran, there still is plenty of risk out there. And I think what you're seeing today is perhaps a temporary dip as the market kind of refocuses. But I think given the news, the risk element is still very much there. And especially even after the EIA report this week looked a little bit OK for products, The fact of the matter is global oil inventories continue to be extremely tight. And if you look at dated Brent, the physical market is showing a lot of that disconnect. $125 a barrel for dated Brent, that's for delivery sooner, whereas there is a bit of a disconnect there between the futures market, the WTI contract.

36:23That was at about$100 a barrel. You have some really interesting stats here that really puts things in perspective in terms of how much more prices at the pump are for people. $711 million. That's how much more the U.S. specifically is paying for gas and diesel compared to a year ago. You think that number could go even higher, which means prices go higher? Oh, I think without a doubt it's going to go higher. We're hitting all the records that we don't want to hit. All the really bad metrics are continuing to see more of those. California today hit$8 a gallon for diesel, according to live gas buddy data.

36:59The national average yesterday hit$6 a gallon for diesel. And the worry is that inventories are still extremely tight. Now, EIA did print a good week for distillates this week, but there's still plenty of strength to be had. We also had a new refinery attack in Russia by Ukraine overnight. Look at the fact of the matter is that Ukraine is finding remarkable success disrupting the everyday lives of Russians and also disrupting the flow of diesel globally. So, you know, if we get one bad hurricane, which is still potential here in the weeks ahead. It's been quiet, but all we need is one additional catalyst to really see the market really start running away from us.

37:38And there's plenty of where those catalysts could come from. So at the same time, consumers are going to start feeling the pain. We saw a decent August CPI print, but my worry is that September and October's print are likely to really start showing a reignition of inflation led by diesel prices. So Patrick, that's exactly where I was going to go. I can make the case that a lot of the headline numbers can go down in price. But diesel seems to be the real issue for me with Russia, Ukraine, as you mentioned, with the Middle East. The refinery capacity is at 98, 99, 100 percent. And there's no room to actually refine diesel.

38:16So I don't see an end to the climate diesel. How does that end? Yeah, no, you're 100 percent right. I mean, Americans, we look at WTI, we talk about oil, this and that. But, you know, the only way oil is relevant today anywhere in the world is if it's put through a refinery. And that's been the choke point. That's what we continue to talk about. And that's the real struggle. I mean, there's no margin for error. This week saw the complete shutdown of the Irving Oil Refinery in New Brunswick, in St. John, New Brunswick. Like that refinery provides a significant amount of refined product into the northeastern U.S., where inventories are the tightest right now of any place in the country.

38:57So there's still a tremendous amount of pressure on the region's refineries and on refineries as a whole at 98 percent. And now we're going into the time of year that maintenance has been planned. So a lot of pressure there. There's no good solutions. Russia's refineries are key to the story here. And a lot of the refineries, the newest refineries in the Middle East, are stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz. And we've got no forward progress on any of these geopolitical tensions. Patrick, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Thanks, Melissa. Patrick DeHaan, gas buddy. So what's the trade out of this?

39:31I think we've done a decent job with the energy trade. I mean, Tim talks about it. Look at the refiner. I mean, Valero seemingly on every single day makes a new all-time high, as does Marathon, as does PSX. I still think the large cap integrated are cheap here. XLE made an all-time high, I think, this week. Even if you want to go places we don't talk about, like a RIG or a Devin and names like that, I think they're actually, APA Corp, for example, I think they're interesting, too. Yeah, I mean, integrated, right? What that means, they're vertically integrated. So they have exposure to upstream, midstream, downstream.

40:01And it's kind of like the tech trade with NVIDIA. I don't know why you have to get a lot more complicated than NVIDIA when you can own, So in this case, own Exxon or Chevron or Total or Shell. So big integratives that are trading at free cash flow yields that are north of 13 percent. They are exposed to all legs in the chain here. And I think this is probably the best way to invest other than the MLPs, which are utilities and which are getting paid higher toll rates than they have in a long time. And I think they're run differently. I second that. I third that. You know, we've talked about this for a long time.

40:31XLE, which is also in the malign bidang, but that's OK. which is a big trade. It's not maligned. But XLE is in bedang? What letter is it? The XLE... Is in bedang. B-D-A-N-G. If it is, it shows why she's cheating. It's energy.

40:51Aside from that. No, I think that we've talked about this a lot. We've talked about that there's this catalyst here, but I actually think it goes well beyond the catalyst, and I do think we're going to see bigger allocations, too, this sector for some time. It was definitely in carved. It was definitely in carved. That was the OIH. Of course it was. Can I ask a question? If it is in Bedang, would you acknowledge that you're not playing the game the right way? No. The game the right way is you're trying to get the best returns you can. You're winning, but you're winning by now. It ain't over, though.

41:24It ain't over. Yes, bottom line of long XLE. Coming up, Amazon under pressure over the past month, but the chart master says this one might be prime for a pop. Inside that call next. Much more Fast Money in 2.

41:38Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a news alert on Citrini Research. The company seeming to confirm a Bloomberg report that founder James Van Geelen has sold the firm to Semi Analysis, reposting the article from its X account. Back in February, remember, Citrini published an article warning that AI disruption could collapse the middle class. And that sent tech stocks and software in particular dropping. So, interesting note. Meantime, Amazon shares down more than 10 percent from their all-time high hit at the start of August. The chart master, though, Carter Worth, out with a note this morning saying it is time to buy the dip.

42:11He pointed to recently bullish price volume action, noting that recent pops have come on high volume. The pullback since earnings have come on low volume. He says the stock is due for a bounce as a price objective of$305. Would you concur, Guy? Hasn't really sold off all that much. So we've had sell-offs of this more than this magnitude over the last couple of years in Amazon, and they've all wound up being an opportunity to get long and watch them make a new all-time high. So when Carter says something like that, his work suggests, again, that there's a new high coming. I would agree with that.

42:43They don't report until the end of October, so you have some time. But a benign market, I think Amazon does fine. It's a case also where we really have seen a bit of a resurgence in the mag-7s, and there's been an element of that that they are somewhat defensive, Although, again, they have different balance sheets than they used to. But I still think you look at the valuations and you look at the earnings power of Amazon and their numbers were extraordinary. So that number, that release was a bit of a turning point for the stock in terms of momentum and where it is on the charts. Yeah, I think it can be long here.

43:11I think it's not gnawing at me to get long Amazon here. But I think if you're long the position, you're staying there. It is the A in bidang. It is the A in bidang. Yeah, it's up slightly for the year. But I really like it here. If I owned none, I'd absolutely buy it right here. That quarter, I thought, was spectacular. AWS was, you know, the bar was sort of creeping higher, but they blew so far past it. And look at what, you know, the Microsoft thing they put out today. I think Andrew Jassy sees this as absolutely a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. He's going to push really hard, and he's a good store to capital, so I'm in.

43:48If we were playing acronym bingo tonight, you just bingoed that blank. She's dominated. I mean, Amazon was the final piece of the bedank. Yeah, but I don't think the E is in there. I think it was in last year. We'll investigate. We'll crack Stephanie's. Coming up, bouncing builders, the home trade shaking off some recent pressure. The stock's leading the way. And whether the rebound can continue, Fast Money's back in two.

44:14Welcome back to Fast Money. Home Builders catching a bit of a bid today. The XHB up 1.6%, though still down more than 8 % in the last three months. Among the leaders today, KB Home, Lennar, Toll Brothers, all with outsized gains. And, of course, just yesterday we were talking about the 30-year fixed going well above 7 percent in terms of mortgage rates. Yeah, D.R. Horton is the number one builder in size. Lennar's second. And Lennar's down 23 percent or thereabouts year to date. This is a tough environment. They've been pummeled. This is more of a bounce back as sort of a relief rally coming back where maybe it's not going to be that bad.

44:52But when you're at mortgage rates over 7 percent, the magic rate to unlock the existing home sales is below 5 percent. And you have an outsized percentage of homeowners that have homes with a 4 percent mortgage. So you've got to get them out of their homes. You've got to unlock that. And that doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon. I think we've been somewhat steadfast. I don't know how you can play these from the long side right now. You have rates working against you. I get the unemployment rate is decent at 4.1 percent, but you look at delinquency rates, they continue to go higher. This is not an environment to be long the homebuilders.

45:26I was watching a different tape than everyone else did because I saw rates go higher. I saw long rates go higher. I'm not sure why you're rallying the homebuilders on that. I think Steve's right. I think they're oversold. I think there's a dynamic here where there's probably a trade here, but it's not a trade I even want to be in. And I think Home Depot, just south of a 20 times Ford multiple, is something I can ride with. I mean, I think it's a case where it's such a well-run company. I know I've been saying that, and I've actually been starting to nibble on it the last couple of days. You know, Tim did buy a torque wrench recently to get back to some of the early companies.

45:54You've got to be careful. If you over tighten your spark plugs, you're going to crack them. Of course. So you need a torque wrench. That's true. Up next, final trades.

46:08Final trade time. Tim. 9-11, never forget. Karen. Yes, same sentiment, but I do have a final trade. Amazon, we talked about it before. I like it right. Steve. Oracle. Guy. It was really nice that David Solomon came. That FDNY Foundation dinner is extraordinary. Next Thursday, again, 1 ,500 people, Randall's Island. Check out their website. We don't ask for a lot, but if you're looking to make a donation, this is as worthy a cause as there is. So thank you, David Solomon, for that, and thank you, Mel, for letting me talk about it. APA Corp. A great cause. And on this 25th anniversary of 9-11, we leave you with these pictures.

46:45Never forget.

46:56All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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