Meta Surges As Muse Optimism Grows… And Novo’s Growth Plans Disappoint 9/21/26

18:45talking. We're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

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19:58Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant meeting with the Chinese vice premier in New York City for a final round of negotiations ahead of Trump's summit with China's Xi Jinping later this week. Megan Cassell is at the White House with all the details. Hey, Megan. Hey, Melissa, that's right. It was Besant and the U.S. trade rep Jamison Greer spending all day yesterday with their Chinese counterparts. They were talking trade, including the possibility of reducing tariffs for about$60 billion in two-way trade,$30 billion each way, and talking AI as well. The two sides agreed to set up a safety dialogue.

20:28Here's how Besant described that to CNBC.

20:33Dan Nathan:We want to open a communications line, an incident line, so that we have constant communications, especially in the event of some kind of an incident. Now, trade and AI will continue to be the dominant topics on the agenda for President Xi's three-day visit to Washington. You can see some of the highlights here, including President Trump greeting President Xi on the tarmac on Wednesday. That's an honor that most world leaders do not get when they come to Washington. That's then followed by the official bilateral meeting and a formal state dinner on Thursday. And that state dinner is turning into one of the hottest tickets in this town, especially for executives in tech and finance.

21:11You can see here just some of the business leaders that we expect to be there. Lots of familiar names here. Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, Dane Frazier, Michael Dell, and Melissa. We do expect some Chinese business executives to attend that dinner as well, just waiting for a formal list from the Chinese side. Melissa.

21:27Tim Seymour:Megan, is it sort of assumed now that this, you know, the preliminary meeting with Greer and Besant and the Chinese counterparts have taken place and the summit is cleared that there are going to be certain deliverables already in place, such as, you know, extending that truce that expires November 10th? It's a good question. We don't know exactly what the deliverables are going to look like yet. I had been told initially, according to a source familiar with the talks, that they thought those working level meetings might continue into Monday. And to our knowledge, That did not happen today. They wrapped up on Sunday and we heard from both officials after that.

21:58So that working level meeting appears to be done now. So you would think that means they have something in place. But we don't know exactly what it is yet. The Busan trade truce extending that would be probably one of the most tangible things we could see from this meeting. Besant and Greer did not say that that was done. I would think that they might leave it to the leaders to announce that. But there have still been some questions about how long they might extend it. My understanding, based on reporting, is that the Chinese want to see it extended for the entirety of President Trump's term. The U.S.

22:26wants to maintain some leverage by extending it for a shorter period of time. Greer told Bloomberg earlier today that he thought three or six months might be the right range. But I think, based on all of this, that the leaders still need to figure out exactly how long they want to extend that. That's likely the biggest deliverable. But things like putting some more meat on the bones of that AI dialogue and hashing out that board of trade, all of that might still be discussed as well.

22:48Tim Seymour:All right. Megan, thanks. Magna Casella from the White House for us. And oftentimes when we go into these sorts of summits, we talk about who's got the upper hand, who's got the leverage here. What do you think? Well, I think the U.S. has proven that at least as it comes to Iran and as it comes to trade tariffs, China is going to kind of have to stand by and see what happens. Now, China has the best trade environment they've ever had. So they're cutting deals with Europe in ways that we haven't seen in a long time, and their trade surplus has never been better. I do think there's an element of U.S.

23:21really just wants rare earth out of this and doesn't want to give any ground on anything else. What I do like about it is I think U.S.-China dialogue is at least as open as it has been in a long time. And I think diplomatic channels between the two countries are really important. It's better to be talking than not talking, even if you don't agree.

23:37Dan Nathan:Yeah. I mean, it's clear anything on the margins that's seemingly positive, the market will champion for sure. It'll be interesting I think if any Taiwan dialogue comes out of it, whether it's public or not, I mean, that will be talked about, I'm sure. So that could be a bit of a wild card. But short of that, the market's going to like the fact that they're sitting down and chatting. Yeah. And USA always has the upper hand because we're the customer of the world. Right. So we buy everything from the rest of the world. So we always come into that. Can you overstep it? Of course you could overstep it.

24:06Is there a way to fine tune it? What we have to make sure is, is this a photo op or is this a policy change? We don't know until we come out of it. But it's been mostly photo ops with a lot of different bite. I just want to see what substantive measures, what's the ask, what's the take, what are we talking about come the end of the week?

24:24Tim Seymour:What are you watching for, Joe? Well, clearly on the tariffs. I think that's super important, right? And I think it's encouraging to have them, you know, having a dialogue on tariffs because I think from the United States perspective, you know, we could benefit from that relief because, you know, prices are clearly an issue here in the United States. Secondly, what happens with AI? Do we get some voluntary restrictions? Do we get some guardrails being put up somewhere? Does the movement to sort of like slow the progress here in the United States, does China, you know, are they willing to sort of adopt that?

24:52Is that even the right answer? I don't know. But those are a couple of things I think we need to watch for.

24:57Tim Seymour:That should be a, I mean, I would imagine that's sort of an awkward conversation. I mean, the framing of all the guardrails, we're not having guardrails here has been always, we don't want to let them being China, them being China, win. And they are our adversary. And so to think about, you know, a two-way line of communication, pick up the phone and talk about intrusions, is sort of ironic. I mean, if China is the big concern here. There's never been any guardrails for China on intellectual property. There's never been any guardrails on all types of involvement on the technology world that China has not paid any attention to the framework.

25:32I just think this is a case where this is bullish for semis, because everyone who came in last week and heard that the big three in AI, at least, you know, were saying a pause. It's not going to happen.

25:43Tim Seymour:Yeah. Coming up, can the crypto come back continue? The big jump in Bitcoin and the proxy stocks making moves? You are watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. Back right after this.

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27:35Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks rallying to start the week. The Nasdaq up more than 2 % to set a record close. It was the index's best day since August 4th. The Nasdaq 100 was up nearly 3 % while the S &P and Dow posted gains. AMD surging 10 % today, topping the trillion dollar market cap level for the first time. Shares are up five days in a row. And Bitcoin breaking above $86 ,000, its highest since January. Prices are up nearly 30 percent in the last two months. Crypto proxies like Strategy, Riot and Coinbase jumping as well. Reports also that MicroStrategy, I should say, actually bought Bitcoin for the first time in three weeks.

28:13Tim Seymour:So maybe that also helped sentiment here. What'd you make of this? Yeah, so the market was set up for a failure with Clarity Act. It got its failure with Clarity Act. But what it didn't bank on was the SEC and the CFTC changing the script on them and giving them two victories, which forces a huge amount of short covering for the Bitcoin space and the Ethereum space. Bitcoin is roughly flat year to date. Ethereum is probably still off 9%. Ethereum since June is up over 50%. And Bitcoin is up in the 30 % range since June. So you get that momentum out of Ethereum. But the environment is definitely bullish for the space right now.

28:55We'll see how far it goes.

28:56Dan Nathan:It seems like this is on exactly what Steve is saying, because gold is obviously not participating. So if it was a story about maybe the Fed and other things, maybe you'd see gold. It's not. I will say, though, that, you know, good for the Bitcoin hodlers. They're obviously got their day in the sun today. We'll see how long that lasts. But go back to gold. And I will say the environment that we find ourselves in, regardless of reviews of Bitcoin, I think the roads are going to go back to gold a lot faster than people realize.

29:20Tim Seymour:Do you follow Bitcoin in any way, Joe? I am personally a little bit skeptical. I own it. I think it does belong in a portfolio. I own it because of the sort of uncertainty. But the reason why I'm a little bit skeptical is because I think we've all been around finance long enough that when you see someone coming up with an elegant solution to something and you step back and say, but what are you solving for? I've always been very skeptical of financial products that are solving for something. You just don't know what that is. It's a solution in search of a problem. I think that's what cryptocurrencies represent to me.

29:53Solutions in search of a problem. Now, we might realize someday what exactly that problem is. But, you know, 10, 12, 14 years into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, I still don't know what it is they're solving for. Elegant, yes, but. And solving for trading of assets in digital form that are illiquid or things that are wildly illiquid, but doing it in an efficient form is exactly what I think is going on. I agree with you. So I'm not pushing back. In fact, I'm saying I think what's being solved for. And it's another reason like Bitcoin is nice, but it's really more about the rails behind Bitcoin.

30:26Yeah, you might settle some trades in Bitcoin, but I think you're going to be settlement in dollars as well. So or digital dollars. So I think it's an exciting time to be in the digital space. I think this rally has been a combination of things were very oversold. You had Catalyst. Steve's pointed out some market dynamics. But I do think beyond Bitcoin, there's not a lot of cryptocurrencies that I would want to own. I would want to be very involved in digital trading.

30:51Tim Seymour:Coming up, a Novo nosedive shares dropping as a drugmaker lays out its weight loss drug growth plans, why investors were stepping off the scale, and what a top health care analyst sees in store for the space when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:18Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Novo dropping 8 % after the pharma giant's capital markets day failed to impress investors. The move sending shares to their lowest price level since April. This on a day, Eli Lilly broke ground on a new manufacturing site in Houston, which will help it ramp up production of its new oral drug, Foundeo. Those shares up about a percent. To help break down all of this, let's bring in UBS senior pharma and biotech analyst and global head of biotech equity research, Michael Yee. Michael, great to see you. Great. So would you say NOMO is a buy here or is this like a value trap at this point?

31:53We've been very consistent on this. We think it's a value trap. We think one of the issues is that you have a incumbent GLP-1 obesity player that's facing significant headwinds and declining market share. And obviously, that is because Lilly offers a significantly better drug. It's taking market share and is beating numbers. And that's why the stock is up today, sort of explains the weak competitor. And that's why we think Lilly is actually going to put up big numbers this year and why that stock is going higher and Novo is challenged.

32:25Tim Seymour:Significantly better on the injectable front, but not necessarily on the oral front. So why doesn't Novo seem to get any credit for what could be touted as one of the most successful pharma launches in history when it comes to the Wigofi pill? Well, I think that's because Wall Street looks at a five-year outlook and looks at where the obesity market is going to be in five and ten years. And I think while Novo has a good Orwa-Govie drug that is launching well, to be fair, and is still one of their bright spots, the question is in five years, is Lilly's Foundeo going to be at or above? But most importantly, as we've talked about, the injectable market is still going to be 65 % or 75 % of the overall market.

33:13and Lily's got not only terzapatide, but you're going to hear about in a month or two, the triple G, which I think a lot of people, including in Silicon Valley, are compounding a bit, the triple G, and also Amalyn, which you're going to hear about, which has very high efficacy and not a lot of side effect. So when you put all of that together over five to seven years, we're still going to be talking about this, but we're not going to be talking about the first generation drugs. We're going to be talking about the latest and greatest, which is why these products are a lot better. Hey, Michael, it's Tim.

33:43Congrats. You've struck this tone for a while, and as it's evolved, this is where you've ended up. It does seem like they kind of drew a line under some of the numbers, though, today. I mean, it does seem that at some point this really, you know, value trap, maybe I'll push back, although, you know, I've been sitting in a value trap in this name for a while. But it does seem that the numbers that they've articulated today, does that mean you don't believe they're going to hit those numbers? I think two things. One is I think there's skepticism, uncertainty, and at this point, a show me story around those numbers.

34:18I think you could argue perhaps they're being conservative. Part of the reason the stock was down was because the margin guidance. So revenues may be growing, maybe, maybe not. But the margin guidance was also a question. We wrote that in the UBS note today. But at the end of the day, I think people just want to bet on the more certain thing about Lilly beating numbers and really, as I think is common sense, the drugs are significantly better and they're well positioned in the growing market. I think Novo still remains a show me story whether or not they can turn this around. I think there will be a turnaround story over a few years, but it's going to take time.

34:53And in this market, guys, I think people want to bet on the growth story, not the value story.

34:58Dan Nathan:Michael, real quick, is diabetes and weight loss now lumped together? There was a period of time where diabetes was something that was treated and Novo did extraordinarily well there. Is it just now one thing, which is why they're just basically discounting their diabetes franchise? Well, what's happening is the diabetes franchise is more mature. So the use of GLP-1s in diabetes is more of a modest growth driver, where terzepatide, to be fair, is also better than Wagovi in the diabetes business. So the diabetes market is more mature. GLP-1, Lilly, again, taking more share. But the growth over the next five or seven years, obviously, is from the obesity, not only through the obese patients, but obviously commercial pay and expanding that market.

35:44There's not a lot of off-label or cash pay, shall we say, in the diabetes market where it's generally reimbursed. And so the big TAM is obviously over obesity over the next five to seven years. So that's really where the growth driver is, to be clear.

35:58Tim Seymour:So given how investors are viewing the obesity space, Michael, and wanting to see far out into the future, how should we then think about some of the smaller players with drugs that have not yet been approved by the FDA, like a GPCR or a Viking? Yeah. So while we think Lilly will dominate with 65 % of that market over the next five or seven years, and I kind of analogize those much better drugs as iPhone 18, 19, 20 over the next few years, we do think there still remains a place for tuck in acquisitions and strategic BD. We do think that GPCR remains a company that's still on the radar screen of a lot of players.

36:39I do think that Amlin, which GPCR has, is going to be one of those assets that we need to wait and see. I do think that Viking, I think, remains a question mark for a lot of people, given that it's still just a peptide, still going to do peptide manufacturing and still a concern. And so we do think that there's other players like NBX and some of these other players that have been coming out with newer and better things as also newer players coming into the market of the year. So still going to be a lot to do here. The fact that the obesity market will be healthy and strong over the next five years still remains to be an important big tan market that people need to plan.

37:14Tim Seymour:All right, Michael, great to see you. Thank you, as always. Michael Yee, how are you feeling about your value trap? It's even more of a value trap today than it was yesterday. And so Lilly at 32 times forward, Novo at 11 and a half times forward. I mean, there you go. So I'm not answering your question. They, too, are focused on the TAM. So, in other words, part of what Novo seems to be really digging in on is this is a massive opportunity. They were the largest player. And even if margins are going down, we're in good shape. So I don't mind holding the stock. And I think it's been disappointing.

37:49But it's not something that I became more concerned after today.

37:54Dan Nathan:As Tim mentioned, Michael's been on top of this, so congratulations to him. Obviously, they will pull up the graphic now. It is the N in my junk, which has made it exactly that junk. Thank you so much. Yeah, you seem pretty happy.

38:07Tim Seymour:If you were able to swap out the N in your junk for something else, would you do it now?

38:12Dan Nathan:You know me for a long time. You're just going to leave it in there. I dance with the girl I brought to the prom, and I'm going to continue to dance with Novo, Nordisk, now Novo. So, of course, although she's got two left feet and you have an opportunity. Maybe that's an excellent point to pass her off to another.

38:27Tim Seymour:Why would I do that? That's not fair to make your junk better.

38:30Dan Nathan:Yeah. Excuse me. To improve your job, improve your junk. Well, I can only improve my junk. Well, some might question that. You know, when you look at Novo, it's it's you know, there's better than anyone. It's 75 percent of their revenues comes from one molecule. They have a patent cliff that's shorter, as he was just saying, than than Lily's. But when you look at other stuff in the area, Merck is outperforming. AbbVie already got the patent clip behind it. So there's a lot of headwinds in a lot of different spaces. We're focused on two companies that are battling it out. The market has decided Lilly's the winner, but there's other places to play.

39:04I would play small cap biotech.

39:06Tim Seymour:Coming up, AI safety concerns still looming as industry leaders look to calm fears around their products. What the president had to say about rainy in tech when fast money returns.

39:21Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The debate over how and whether to regulate AI development rages on with President Trump reiterating his position today, saying the DOJ will rein things in, quote, if we have to. Here with more is Kate Rooney. Hey, Kate. Hey, Melissa. So President Trump reaffirming today that he is against any new regulations that he claims could slow down the industry. In a post earlier today, Trump says that he is not going to, quote, stifle the technology that he argues could be bigger than the internet, or also talks about the industrial revolution as part of this. He pointed to the Justice Department as one example and other law enforcement as well as a backstop to use the laws that are already on the books.

40:02It is similar to what Emile Michael and others in the administration have argued as well. An attorney general, Todd Blanche, did say last week that the DOJ is focused on criminal misuse. He talked about investigating companies if they break laws, but also mentioned that they are prosecutors, not regulators here. And the politics, Mel, here really does put the AI labs in a precarious position. Anthropic, one of the biggest in the space, has argued that existing laws are not enough. And today, OpenAI, another big player in the space, put out a lengthy blog post calling for the U.S. to lead an international effort to create new, quote, standards, not laws, for AI, including ways to measure AI's capabilities and then to report any sort of serious incidents.

40:45It does come amid these safety fears. And as Sam Altman is expected to speak on this issue at the UN Security Council this week, you also have big news in Washington. Altman and other tech leaders are gathering there this week for a state dinner with the president and the president of China, Xi Jinping. Mel.

41:02Tim Seymour:Is there a precedent, Kate, in terms of, you know, getting together globally to set standards and actually for these parties to all abide by these standards, given, you know, the competition with China is really the reason why so many people are against any guardrails to begin with? I would think that the fear is China, for instance, or foreign adversaries using AI to get into our system. So the likelihood of that being reported in a two-way sort of dialogue is pretty slim. It's pretty slim, Mel. And then you have the different levels of this. I mean, there's the China discussion, but you have on one hand, just getting the AI labs to agree to anything was the first hurdle.

41:39And then getting the rest of the tech industry to agree was another hurdle. So it's not even clear that we have consensus here in the US, let alone any other global standard. We heard from the CEO of Cohere last week. He's a Canadian CEO who also said that they didn't want the American labs being the ones to set the global guidelines here. So as much as, you know, the biggest American AI labs would say, let's set the standards, we're ahead, not clear that there's any type of global consensus. And you had Mark Zuckerberg, you had Jensen Wong sort of joining the President Trump camp here. And so getting consensus is a very difficult thing.

42:13We'll see if anything comes out of that meeting and dinner this week. But given the stakes, who knows? I mean, this could be different. We'll see.

42:21Tim Seymour:Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney. And I guess despite the concerns about guardrails, the AI trade rolls on and well, actually. Yeah. I mean, first of all, I think you can't do this in a vacuum, right? So if you are going to have a set of standards, you've got to, number one, make sure you're globally coordinated. But number two, you need to have like a really robust method of ensuring compliance, right? Because that's the real issue. You've got to be able to ensure compliance to these things. Otherwise, the United States just abdicates its leadership in AI and does it to an adversary that, you know, I think that is, you know, very problematic and challenging.

42:57So I think you've got to do it. Now, if you are to put the brakes on this, does it actually do anything to slow AI spending? We can look into the pipeline over the course of 2027 and 2028 and see that a lot of these obligations, these things are locked in. We're going to see the, you know, close to a trillion dollars in spending by the hyperscalers in 2027. And when you zoom out and sort of look at the second and third players, you know, you're talking one and a half to maybe two trillion dollars of spending in 2028. I think a lot of this stuff happens.

43:21Tim Seymour:Coming up, will Big Burger get its bite back? What shareholders need to see from the golden arches of the company's investor day this week? More Fast Money in two.

43:36Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of McDonald's hitting their lowest level since July 2024, posting their eighth down day in nine. The burger chain hosting its annual investor day on Wednesday for a look at what we can expect. Let's bring in Brandon Gomez. Hi, Brandon. Hey, Melissa. And I've heard this name tossed around the desk a lot in the last couple of weeks. So the question is not whether McDonald's can afford its turnaround, but whether it can execute one. Now, the new McDonald's next strategy is supposed to move the brand forward with better food, more relevant marketing, tech and restaurant remodels.

44:05But investors need to see how those pieces all fit together and more specifically what they will cost the company and the franchisees because the recent value reset exposed a bigger problem. A third of franchisees last year did not fully execute the$3 value menu as intended. And management has also said pricing got too far ahead of the competition in recent years. So this is not just about cheaper food. It is about rebuilding alignment with operators and restoring the sense that McDonald's is actually a deal. Analysts I spoke with want the company to stop relying on limited time offers that create a short-term sales pop with no sustainable traffic, a clearer push into chicken, beverages, and digital, and most important, updated financial targets showing this plan can actually deliver.

44:48Bulls point to scale, loyalty, and a management reset in the U.S. Bears are focusing on too many promotions and franchisee misalignment. So again, we'll have to see what they say on Wednesday and where the mark lands.

44:59Tim Seymour:When you say that franchisees, a third of them didn't execute on the value, what does that mean? They didn't actually roll it out? They didn't have as many products? They charge$4. The promotion of it all, right? And I mean, so what ended up happening was, and McDonald's says this, is that they updated the system too many times all at once. And so franchisees couldn't execute each one to satisfaction. Brandon, thank you. Brandon Gomez. You've been in McDonald's for on and off. I've started to nibble. Okay. And let's just say, and Brandon referred to this, and I know he's here, but he's not here.

45:29But getting chicken right is something McDonald's has not done. And I'm a chicken guy. And I don't really want to go to Chick-fil-A.

45:37Tim Seymour:Basically nuggets or the chicken sandwich for you? There's not really a chicken offering for a healthy guy like me. So I'm just saying. Now, Guy is going to walk in there and 15 hamburgers. In fact, he's going to tell you about the one time he went to McDonald's. He had three. It wasn't 23.

45:51Dan Nathan:We ordered 23 hamburgers. Not for yourself. There was somebody else there. I ate the majority of them. Okay. The aftermath was not pleasant, Brandon. We can talk offline. I'm sure we will.

46:02Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.

46:09Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Timbo. Airlines continue to give us a reason to buy them, and I do think weaker oil prices are also that weak. Steven. I thought it sounded like he forgot his final trade there. Kudos to you for coming back up. You didn't even forget at all, right? Yeah. CSX. You know why? Because I forgot why. So CSX is CSX for the aforementioned reasons, not as dependent on keys. Jay-Z. We talked about trade. We talked about Trump, Xi Jinping. Rare Earths are in focus. MP Materials Corp. Vertically integrated Rare Earths miner and processor here in the United States.

46:45Dan Nathan:Guy. PSX, Mel. So brief. Why so brief?

46:50Tim Seymour:We also wanted to give some kudos to your son.

46:53Dan Nathan:You completed the Maryland Iron Man this past weekend. Like father, like son.

46:59Tim Seymour:Remember, Guy himself did one. Thanks for watching Fast Money. that money started great.

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