In short
Fast Money (9/14/26) covers three market shocks and their implications: rates, oil, and AI safety warnings. Topic: 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5% (first time since Oct 2023), WTI oil rising to ~$105 (highest since May 18), and AI CEOs (OpenAI, Anthropic) urging a slowdown due to safety risks.
Key claims
despite these negatives, major indices were only about 0.5% down and S&P 500 stayed near highs; oil/rate moves may be “resilient” and historically not lead to immediate equity selloffs; semiconductors (DRAM ETF, SOX/SMH) are rolling over since mid-July while software/cyber can outperform.
Notable examples
Bank of America shares fell after CEO Brian Moynihan forecast Q3 investment banking fees down >10% YoY and trading flat; Netflix’s Australia NFL game drew 18.5M viewers on Netflix vs 25.1M for a mixed broadcast/streaming game.
Guests
Subhajra Rajapa (Head of Research, Societe Generale) and Di Chaube (CEO/founder, Open Reserve).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview: Resilience Amidst Concerns
0:00 to 0:22
Analysis of market resilience despite rising rates and oil prices.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
Market Overview: Resilience Amidst Concerns
1:50 to 2:13
Analysis of market resilience despite rising rates and oil prices.
“The benchmark 10-year treasury yield crossing the key 5 % level early in the session.”
Impact of AI Warnings on Stocks
2:15 to 3:31
Discussion on the effect of AI safety warnings on semiconductor stocks.
“saying the industry needs to slow down due to safety risks.”
Market Reactions to Slower Growth in AI
3:43 to 4:25
Exploring how slower growth in AI may affect market dynamics.
“Now, if you talk to me about the market's reaction to this, a little slower growth in AI may be actually fantastic for the markets.”
Bond Market Dynamics and Interest Rates
4:27 to 5:05
Insights on how rising interest rates and bond markets interact.
“It's seven straight months of higher yields.”
Global Effects on U.S. Interest Rates
5:07 to 6:12
Understanding the influence of global interest rates on U.S. markets.
“When they announced their CapEx, this is going back, what, a month, month and a half ago on their latest call, the stock got punished.”
Exploring Resilience in the Current Market
6:14 to 7:42
Why markets continue to perform despite economic pressures.
“I mean, if you think about since May, the semiconductors are unchanged despite the huge volatility.”
Future Outlook on Rates and Equities
7:44 to 10:14
Predictions for the future of rates and their impact on equity markets.
“At some point, wait, he's not staying down.”
Investor Sentiment and Market Interventions
10:16 to 14:00
Discussing the impact of government policies on investor behavior.
“And I think that, you know, Oracle and their report last week is really interesting because they talked about not raising any more capital.”
Investor Reactions to Fed Decisions
14:00 to 17:31
Explore how investor expectations are shaped by Fed actions and market responses.
“when he says he's the house and he's going to go in there and deliver price equilibrium.”
Show all 22 chapters
Bank of America Outlook
17:31 to 18:50
Discussion on Bank of America's bearish outlook and implications for the banking sector.
“But remember, we already determined She's a polite young lady.”
Cybersecurity Stocks Surge
18:50 to 22:04
Analyze the rise of cybersecurity stocks amid AI safety warnings and investor sentiment.
“Seemed like a great time to say, don't call me Shirley.”
Market Reactions and Predictions
23:41 to 28:00
Discussion on the performance of software stocks and market predictions amidst uncertainties.
“Cybersecurity stocks surging after AI safety warnings from the CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI.”
Venture Global's Energy Strategy
28:00 to 28:23
Learn about Venture Global's commitment to energy efficiency.
“but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.”
Novo Nordisk's Rebranding and Market Strategy
29:19 to 32:22
Discussion on Novo Nordisk's rebranding and its implications for investors.
“Novo Nordisk up nearly a percent after announcing a company rebrand.”
Open Reserve's Blockchain Banking Innovation
32:22 to 36:56
Insights into Open Reserve's blockchain-based banking model and its implications.
“Stocks starting the week in the red as fears of a rising rate swept through Wall Street, The Dow falling 152 points.”
Future of American Banking and Blockchain
36:56 to 39:01
Exploring the evolving landscape of American banking with blockchain technology.
“And as you say, we'll lower the cost of capital.”
Potential of U.S. Treasury-backed Stablecoins
39:01 to 39:34
Discussing the impact of U.S. Treasury-backed stablecoins on the market.
“When Scott Besson got into office, he made comments around U.S.”
Netflix's Streaming Performance Analysis
39:34 to 42:08
Evaluating Netflix's viewer numbers for the recent NFL game and their significance.
“what the chart master sees in the technicals when Fast Money returns.”
Netflix Streaming Numbers Analysis
42:18 to 45:07
An in-depth discussion on Netflix's NFL game viewership and its implications.
“This isn't bad, but these numbers are more nuanced.”
Discussion on Commercials and Live TV
45:07 to 45:58
Analysis of the role of commercials in Netflix's strategy moving forward.
“That ceiling was hit for you, Tim, I think.”
Final Trades and Market Insights
45:58 to 46:46
Summary of final trades and investment insights from the hosts.
“If you want rotation into non-cyclical and interest rate sensitive and AI stuff, buy Johnson & Johnson.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features, so you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda, more of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. The board recommends approving... Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting... To boost quarterly earnings... Every day, shareholders meet to discuss important matters about the companies you invest in.
0:39Now you can easily make your voice heard. Vanguard Investor Choice gives you a say in the companies you invest in. With just a few taps, you can set your proxy voting preference for your index funds. Visit vanguard.com slash investorchoice to learn more. Vanguard Investors own shares of our index funds, which own shares of the companies they invest in. Available for Vanguard Index funds that participate in Investor Choice, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A potential triple threat to the markets grabbing our attention today, but stocks largely shrugging off concerns.
1:11So is the market more resilient than we feared, and where do stocks go from here? In banking on blockchain, we'll talk to the CEO of Open Reserve, which just received conditional approval for its blockchain-based bank. How he does business differently and what it could mean for your money. plus cyber stock surge on the latest AI concerns. Is Novo throwing a Hail Mary ahead of its capital markets day? And new numbers from Netflix's Big Bet on live football will last Thursday's game score a touchdown for investors. We'll get all the details later this hour. I'm Melissa Lecombe, DLAC, from the studio B at the NASDAQ.
1:43On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Worth, Dan, Nathan, and Guy Adami. And we start off with those three big moves that should have weighed on investors today. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield crossing the key 5 % level early in the session. It was the first time that happened since October 2023. That took a bite out of rate-sensitive sectors, from homebuilders to financials to utilities. Oil prices also rising, WTI hitting a high close to$105 a barrel, the highest level since May 18th. And, of course, there was the stark warning from AI leaders over the weekend, the CEOs of both OpenAI and Anthropics, saying the industry needs to slow down due to safety risks.
2:20That sent semi-stocks, especially memory makers, sinking today. The DRAM ETF seeing its worst day in nearly a month. The SOX and SMH both at their worst since July. Despite all that, markets broadly held up fairly well. All major indices down half a percent. So what does this all tell you about the resilience or maybe the complacency of stocks, Guy? Resilience is the word. I mean, complacency is a word. Resilience, I think, is the word. Now, it will not be complacency if you see the VIX north of 20, which, by the way, I think we're headed towards. It showed some signs of life today. But it's resilience.
2:55And resilience has come in the form of the S &P 500, which, despite all the things we talk about, is still within a couple percent of an all-time high. Which, again, if you had said 10-year yields are 5 percent, oil north of 100, and all these other AI headlines over the weekend, I would have been convinced by this time this year would be below 7 ,000, and we're not. But you mentioned the SMH quickly. that has been very quietly rolling over since the middle of July. That is absolutely worth watching. Yeah, you've been mentioning that lately. Yeah, and look, it has not been able to get out since July 14th of its own way and that relative underperformance, so making new relative lows.
3:31And if you're in the semiconductor space, even a small change in the rate of growth. In other words, these announcements by the big three, even Elon was in on that, at least ratified it, at least sounded like he was on board with a slowing. A slowing on the rate of growth has enormous implications for a sector that even NVIDIA with a below market multiple, the entire space is priced for extraordinary growth. Now, if you talk to me about the market's reaction to this, a little slower growth in AI may be actually fantastic for the markets. And, you know, you see the correlation, what that meant for MAG7, what it meant for market cap stocks.
4:03When I hear about slowing the process down, I hear about less spending. I hear about less need to raise debt. That also could be positive for the long end of the Treasury curve if you believe there's a lot of pressure in issuance. So if you slow the whole thing down a little bit, today doesn't really scare me from the equities perspective. The bond market's another story. And I just think the rate of change there is a lot more aggressive than we had seen. It's seven straight months of higher yields. We haven't seen this since 2011. That was the last time we were really talking about sovereign debt crises, especially those in Europe.
4:35So that's the story. Yeah, I think your point, Tim, about the MAG-70, obviously it looks a bit defensive here. And I just look at this and I say to myself, there's spenders and there's takers, right? And the spenders right now, depending upon what happens from a data center standpoint and these moratoriums that we're seeing all over the country, I think that was the precursor to some of the, you know, just the issues as it relates to safety, right? And now we have this kind of back and forth about regulation. And I think those few things have the potential to really slow down the spending. And maybe investors are willing to actually give them the benefit of the doubt because we've seen some of these companies.
5:09And Meta was a great example. When they announced their CapEx, this is going back, what, a month, month and a half ago on their latest call, the stock got punished. But on the Amazon side, when AWS saw better than expected margins and then their spending and it got rewarded, right? So if I think about the takers on the other side of it, that is the semis. That is the memory. And if you just look at what's going on, I like to use these two ETFs. One of them is the mags, and we know that that follows the mag 7. That is trading very near its all-time highs. And you look at it, it looks like it's about to break out.
5:41And then if you look at the DRAM, which is obviously some of the biggest names, it's SK, it's Micron, it's Samsung. And that thing looks somewhat broken to me, right? And so at least the momentum ended there. But it looks like, and to Tim's point also, I think, you can have a market that goes higher or at least kind of stays put down a couple percent from the all-time highs or a few percent wherever it is and have some of those kind of, I don't know if you want to call them bubbly sort of names that we were calling them a few months ago, roll over and then you have this rotation into software and then larger cap hyperscalers?
6:12Yeah, I mean, I would characterize this hyper rotation and yet there's no net effect. And that's the curious thing. I mean, if you think about since May, the semiconductors are unchanged despite the huge volatility. Software has been down 20 percent sort of in a two, three period and has recovered it all. And yet still we churn. The big, I think the big, and it has to be deemed as a positive, if you put every data point as positive or negative, is the fact that the market has taken so well this surge in oil and in rates. In fact, we spent a good deal of the weekend just wondering, what has happened in the past when on a 10-day period, the past two weeks, oil has advanced more than 20 % and 10-year yields have advanced by 30 base points or more?
6:54It's only happened 12 times going back to 1983 over sort of five, six distinct macro periods, the Gulf War being one of them, coming off the 09 low, financial crisis and so forth. And remarkably, despite sort of dodgy performance at the index level, S &P, on a one, two, three-month basis, forward returns are positive every time, sort of six, nine, 12 months out. The market, there's an adage that's important. I had a teacher, a mentor taught me this. He said, strength, where strength is unlikely, has to be respected. This market is not reacting to what should be a problem. It's not reacting to higher yields.
7:32It's not reacting to a surge in oil. So the narrative would be that for now some sort of news-related, oil-related, interest rate-related sell-off is not imminent. I love that saying. Where strength is not expected. No, not like it. It's not like it. It's not respected. So here's what it is. It's not the market. It's the whole Rocky Balboa. The guy goes down. And guess what? He got back up. Then he goes down again. He gets back. At some point, wait, he's not staying down. He's going to win. Strength where strength is unlikely has to be respected. Now you get it right with the Rocky Balogos. I got it the first time.
8:07Tim's the one of me. He was looking at me as a little fun. Probably because I don't fit that bill. But, you know. But, I mean, the idea that from here we're going to see sizable returns on the S &P, notable returns on the S &P 500. Because it was 12. Markets go up 70, 80 percent of the time. Anyway, four returns are generally positive. But what all eyes are on, it's not about, OK, the Fed does quarter point, the earnings are done. How is it that the general equity market has just taken a huge spike in rates and a huge spike in oil and basically dusted it off? Guess what? The precedent is that it has done it before.
8:39It's just fascinating because the move in rates is, once again, it's a global phenomenon. So the thing that I just think we're a higher, we're obviously, but I mean, we're moving into yet another higher interest rate paradigm. And it's it's happening even at a faster pace around the world. So from the beginning of the year, actually, sorry, from from just May, you've got rates that are about 25 percent higher in Germany, 25 percent higher in Italy versus only about 15 percent higher here. And if you really want to go after fiscal stories, I know we have a lot of things going on in Washington that seem a little unconventional.
9:15But I do think if you look around the world, there's some other places that in the long run, people have a lot less confidence in than the United States of America. And I think that's something that ultimately for a lot of trades, higher interest rates as pulled up by around the world is something that's out of the control of our Treasury. And on some level, our fiscal policy can't be reversed overnight. So I just think we're in an environment where that discount rate, that same discount rate that goes into equity valuations and models and is mechanical and whatnot, is higher for longer. And I think we are underestimating that.
9:45Eighty percent of global bonds have a yield of four percent or higher, according to BlackRock. Think about think about like it's pre or during covid when I think that number was 80 percent of bonds had. Actually, that's not true. It was like 35 percent of all global bonds had a negative yield. I mean, so think about how quickly that's turned. So, yeah, I believe it. And to Tim's point, and we've been making the point, it's not just a U.S. thing. It's a global thing, which is another reason why I think U.S. rates will continue to go higher. Yeah, it's not just, you know, sovereign debt. I mean, think about what's going on, the dispersion we're seeing just in corporate debt right now.
10:18And I think that, you know, Oracle and their report last week is really interesting because they talked about not raising any more capital. But Larry Ellison did cancel a seven and a half billion dollar equity sale that he was thinking about doing, I guess, maybe to fund that Warner deal. But you think about Oracle and their debt relative to, let's say, some of the big hyperscalers. And there's probably some really interesting opportunities there, especially relative to equity valuations right now. So it really is this kind of, you know, we're seeing this across the board, like you guys just said.
10:47I mean, there's a lot of places to get your money and take much less risk in the equity market right now, especially as some of these themes are getting a little long in the tooth. But back to like this whole notion of a different regime where rates are higher, energy prices are higher. Do you believe, I mean, the data bears it out, but do you believe that we will be higher, that the equity markets will be OK? Is what we've seen since May evidence that the markets are much more resilient than we thought? I think, Ed, once rates stabilize at a higher level, I think equity markets are in trouble.
11:18I mean, I think there's going to be an alternative. I think fixed income markets, by the way, it's not a really big surprise, but they've had a terrible year. And they've had a couple of terrible years in the last few. And I think it's been difficult to be a long-term investor in other asset classes for a long time. It's now going to get a little bit easier. So the correlation to oil prices, let's not lose sight of this. I do want to say we're higher for longer, but today was a perfect example. You saw oil dive about 4.5 % intraday, or from when we walked in to around 230, you saw yields fall 10 bps on the 10-year, and you saw the stock market rally 75 bps.
11:53It was oil-driven. At first I looked, I saw the Treasury yield move. I thought it was the plunge protection team. I know they don't exist, but yet suddenly you have to ask that question. And no, it's oil prices. If you told me oil was going back to$90 a barrel and going to stay there, I think the markets would have a chance to stabilize. I don't think we're going back to$70. For more on the rate outlook, let's bring in Subhajra Rajapa, head of research at Societe General. Subhajra, great to have you with us. You think we could be seeing four and a, excuse me, five and a quarter. That's your bear case?
12:23It is kind of my bear case, but I agree with Tim. I think the price action today was definitely much more driven by what happened in oil markets. And global rates are much more sensitive to oil prices. So you saw that sell off in Burns, you saw that sell off in global bond yields, and treasuries followed. So it's definitely an oil-driven trade. And you saw that reverse as soon as we got that tweet from President Trump about, you know, potential deal with Iran. But there's a confluence of factors that are definitely driving the bond market higher. It's the trajectory for inflation. It's probably a little bit of Fed in action.
13:00I think there are market participants, ourselves included, that think that the Fed should be acting sooner rather than later. And then you have a buildup in inflation expectations and then the broader trajectory for debt and deficits. As Tim was pointing out, again, that's not something we can solve overnight. Is it a rate hike cycle that we're about to embark on or is this sort of one off, maybe two over the course of however many months? Our call is for three rate hikes, 25 basis points in September, 25 basis points in December, another 25 basis points maybe in March. But it's going to be a gradual sort of a rate, you know, tightening cycle, if you will, because the Fed is going to deliver a hike, see how the market reacts.
13:44You know, as you guys were discussing earlier, the market hasn't really reacted to higher interest rates. I mean, financial conditions, broadly speaking, are still very, very accommodative. So the Fed's going to see how the market reacts before they deliver another hike. How do you interpret what Secretary Besson says when he says he's the house and he's going to go in there and deliver price equilibrium. I think those were his words. Do you believe that? You know, I mean, I think that it's better if policymakers actually kind of stay out of the headlines when it comes to this, because as investors, we're looking at fundamentals.
14:19That was very polite, by the way, the way you did that. That was very eloquent. I mean, it sounded like a no to me, but please go on. You know, I think broadly speaking, I think, you know, you're looking at investors trying to get a holistic view of the markets. And if they do things like buybacks or operations to intervene in the market, it's kind of confusing. I mean, I get that as an investor, I feel the same way when I see, say, the Ministry of Finance intervene in the yen market. So ultimately, I think that the markets and investors are going to prevail. So will it be confusing if the Fed doesn't go in two days?
14:57Will the market be so confused that it will have a bit of a pissy? Yeah, a tantrum. I definitely think that the Fed has to deliver, almost has to deliver that 25 basis point height that's fully priced in. If they don't do anything or they surprise the markets with a 50 basis point hike, I think you're going to see some significant price action in the bond market. You know, typically in the past, the Fed has delivered when the market's about 70 percent or above priced in. If they don't deliver, it's going to be definitely be a source of volatility in the markets. It's interesting. I mean, I'm push back on me, please, because most people do.
15:35But I'm of the belief that if they do nothing, that's bearish bonds. But if they do hike, that actually might provide a calming influence on the bond market. And somewhat counterintuitively, rates might go down in the back end. I agree with that. I think that having. I didn't say I didn't believe you. Please continue. I think that if they raise rates and show that they're actually committed to fighting inflation, which is what Walsh has been saying all along, I think that that could actually cap the rise in term premium on the long end because it shows a clear commitment to act if inflation starts to rise.
16:10The concern for me is that they don't do anything. And that's when you start seeing inflation expectations getting higher, maybe a little bit unhinged. the market's going to get uncomfortable that the Fed is not being proactive about fighting inflation. If we get to five and a quarter percent under your bear case, what are the ramifications if we stay there? That's a very good question. I think that that's a question for investors in the risky asset spectrum. Right. I think that if there is a gradual rise in yields, as we have seen throughout the course of this year, the equity market tends to recalibrate as we go along.
16:47If we see a very sharp rise in yields, that's when you start seeing the impact of higher prices feed through into risky assets. It could be wider corporate bond spreads. You're seeing a slew of issuance come into the markets. That issuance has to get absorbed. Even though corporate bond spreads are narrow, the absolute level of yields are higher because treasury yields are higher. So it's a question of how the market absorbs that additional supply that comes into the market? How do equity markets recalibrate to a higher rate regime? And then you have to ask yourself, is this a new kind of a range that we're looking at for treasury yields?
17:24It's not just a temporary rise in yields, but a durable shift to a higher rate regime. Subhadra, great to see you. Thank you. Subhadra Rajapa, Societe Generale. I love when smart people agree with me. It happens so seldomly. But remember, we already determined She's a polite young lady. Polite is good, too. Here's what I think. I think right now we have cyclicality in the global economy. There's part of the equity market that's going for all the right reasons. You have enormous earnings growth, and I get that. There's different lumpiness in part of that number, but that earnings, that EPS growth in the second quarter was extraordinary.
18:03You have global cyclicality around buildup. I mean, the economy's, and I think in pretty solid shape, there's an argument the labor market's not as strong as we want it to be. But that right now is what's supporting equity markets. And a move to five and a quarter on the 10-year isn't going to sink equities in that environment. The question is, is that ephemeral? And if we're slowing down AI the way the weekend's press had us doing it, that's something equities haven't digested. I mean, five and a quarter. That's just – we were at 4-6 on August 25th. We just went to five in 10 sessions. Five and a quarter.
18:33I don't think that – so no one knows where the tipping point is. And here we are, the exact same level three years ago in October, November of 2023. But it surely is not this level, right, because the market has spoken as of right now. It can handle this kind of rare spike in oil and in rates. Seemed like a great time to say, don't call me Shirley. Well, you just did. No, I mean, Carter was looking at Melissa, and she's clearly not Shirley. I don't even know what you're talking about. She's Michelle. That happens, actually, unfortunately. It does. It does. I know it does. Anyway, I'm going to proceed.
19:08Shares of Bank of America tumbling more than 5 % today after its CEO gave a bearish outlook for a key part of its business. Brian Moynihan telling analysts at a Barclays conference that third quarter investment banking fees will likely fall by more than 10 % from a year ago. He also predicted trading volume would be basically flat. The weakness spilling over into other big banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, they were all lower today. This is not even factoring in a potential slowdown in the IPO pipeline because of this AI slowdown. So who knows how that will hit, too?
19:40Yeah, this has been a place, I think, you know, to hide out, actually, over the last, you know, few months or so. And especially given that rate move, you know, it might have sounded counterintuitive one way or another. I mean, there's different banks, right? We talk about it all the time. I mean, if they want to pull up a Goldman Sachs chart, I mean, this is one meant to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of, like, this IPO boom that was expected. They also are pretty good at trading, you know. And when you think about this, so it has not acted particularly well over the last few months. And maybe it's not deemed to be this safe in a rate environment that seems a bit hard to kind of predict at the moment.
20:13Yes, you know, the rates have moved higher. I just can't remember the last time we've seen in such a short period of time where the Fed funds, the CME Fed funds tool was literally pricing in, I think, a 33 percent probability of a 25 basis point high a month ago. And now here we are at 93 percent two days ahead of time. So I think a lot of investors in very interest rate sensitive sectors might have a really hard time on Thursday or Wednesday afternoon if something does not happen that's expected to happen. How long have you been doing this show? It'll be 20 years. Hard to believe. In January.
20:46I believe. And don't at me if I'm off by a couple months. But I think Brian Moynihan's been CEO of Bank of America since 2010. So for a large portion of the duration of this show, why do you bring that up, Guy? I'm glad you asked, Melissa, because I've never heard him other than just enthusiastic about everything that's going on in the environment, specifically at Bank of America. So when I hear comments like that out of him, somebody who's historically effusive in his praise of the environment, I take notice. And I think clearly the market is as well as they should. I just think banks are exposed if we have some of the issues we're talking about.
21:21The fact that trading volumes are going to be off of record levels isn't a big surprise. And all it's going to take is a VIX above 20 that you think we're going to get, guys, is I think trading volumes will go right back up. And so banks are cyclical. Banks have had one of the greatest runs in their recent history. And I mean going all the way back through pre-financial crisis. And I think a little pullback here makes sense given the uncertainty about rates. Coming up, cyber stocks soaring and leaving the software stocks higher. But is this latest move just the beginning of more strength to come?
21:51We will find out. Plus, Novo shedding some weight in its name. The GLP-1 giant rebranding ahead of its analyst meeting next week. But what else does Wall Street need to see before they dive into it? Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
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23:41Welcome back to Fast Money. Cybersecurity stocks surging after AI safety warnings from the CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investors betting companies will have to spend more to guard against potential rogue agents. Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Okta, all up double digits. And helping the IGB far outperform the rest of technology, the group 44 % off of its lows of the year. You've been on cyber for a long time. Collectively, we talked about it last week. We said if, in fact, what is happening is happening, you have to get along these names. And we said under sort of the caveat of the volatility that all these names find themselves in.
24:15And when I say volatility, I mean, these stocks had 12 % to 15 % moves today, and they're not small. I think Palo Alto is a$300 billion company. If you can endure that, I think the trajectory is invariably higher, but there are going to be some down moves along the way. But Palo Alto, best in breed, you're paying for it, but I think it deserves evaluation. Yeah, I think chasing these right here is kind of dangerous, and I'll tell you why. If you read about what happened with this open AI hugging face, you know, hack, I mean, good luck. I mean, trying to defend against swarms of, you know, autonomous agents working together.
24:51And, you know, I mean, I'm sure that these companies are using AI in a manner that's trying to match this sort of thing. But it's going to be lots of fits and starts here. And I think that is just like we're going to hear more and more about hacks. We're probably going to hear more and more about failures from some of these companies. And that doesn't mean they're putting they're not putting their best efforts forward. But when you have these sorts of valuations, you have the sort of runs that we've had in such a short period of time, I think it's probably going to be hard to make money. And I guess the other thing is, and that's in the near term, the other thing is every kind of rotation that we have seen in this sort of AI trade, and you can throw software in there too, right?
25:27We've seen these things fail, you know, ultimately, and we've seen rotations here. So I just think that we've seen a bit of a fever pitch about the fears right now about AI. I don't think it's going to bait this week or next week, that sort of thing. But it's finding a place to feel better from an investment standpoint, given all the unknowns. And I think obviously that's the space right now. I just think it's a hard thing to chase right here. I mean, aside from cyber, Microsoft was up a couple percent today. ServiceNow is up like 7 percent, I think, seven and a half. Salesforce is up five. So it's broad.
25:58If you think semis are overvalued here and there's a pullback in semis, get out of the way. I understand what the trade has been. Carter will tell you that software has rallied almost 8 % or 9 % from all-time highs. So, in other words, you've taken a lot of this back. And I understand where we're getting examples of software companies that, with Agentic help, are actually never been more valuable. But you can't tell me CrowdStrike, which I am long and I like. And I've been long a long time. And I think they're as good of a name as you can find in the spot. But when you start talking about ARR models after 2035, I mean, we have no idea where we're going to be in 2035, especially in this space.
26:37So there's a lot of euphoria in here. That's a Wall Street sell-side specialty, predicting two and three and ten years out, all of which is not doable, of course. But, I mean, relative strength matters. And the two big ones, CrowdStrike and P &W, over the past two, three months, the semis have sold off and software has been bouncing around. They've held their gains. And guess what? They're the winners today. And it's the same thing in reverse. Semis, very poor, and they were very poor today again. All right. Well, by the way, it wasn't all good news in software today. And actually, Carter is going to chart what is next for one stock that set out the rally.
27:11That's straight ahead. Meantime, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Trimming weight and trimming names. Novo trying a rebrand as it looks to win back customers in the weight loss drug race. But what's it really need to do to get shares back on the move higher? Plus, the bank built on blockchain. One latest hurdle cleared for fintech firm Open Reserve. What the CEO sees in store for the financial sector. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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29:21Novo Nordisk up nearly a percent after announcing a company rebrand. The GLP-1 giant will now be known simply as Novo in day-to-day operations but plans to keep Nordisk as part of its legal name globally. It's the latest effort in Novo's turnaround push with shares still down 15 % year-to-date. Next Monday, the company is set to host its Capital Markets Day, where it will give more detail on changes to its business strategy. Remember, the new CEO, I shouldn't say new. The CEO took over in August of last year, implemented cost-cutting strategies, etc., but this is going to be sort of the next chapter, especially after we have had disappointing, what investors consider disappointing, data readouts on Calgris Sema, as well as his cardiovascular drug.
30:00The question is, what is in the pipeline? What is the plan there for the pipeline? Well, that'll fool them. You know, just say it's no. It's no good for them. I mean, I mean, new in Latin. Oh, there you go. Yeah. So with respect to Mike Novogratz, who watches this show, I mean, OK, now you've got two novos out there. But look, we've it's in my acronym. I use the word correctly. It's been grim death most of the year and maybe deservedly so. Maybe I'm missing a boat here, but I will continue to say their business X GOP. Yeah, there it is. junk. We haven't seen that in a while. When you start to laugh off camera, it makes me look at what's going on.
30:39Actually, we're laughing on camera. You look pretty happy. I am. I'm generally happy. Anyway, I don't think they get credit for the remainder of their business. In some ways, and we've said this, maybe the worst thing that ever happened to them was getting into the GLP ones in the first place. Well, you've given it all back. Investor days are moments I actually think lead to positive catalysts for stock because you don't have an investor day unless you have good things to say. or you cancel it if you don't have something good to say. I think the launch of the Oral-Wagobi pill has been very good.
31:11It's been reiterated. I think you've got a launch in Germany. That's something people are excited about. I know generics are a headwind here, and I think we've priced a lot of that in. I don't know what else to say other than if a name change works, blow me over the feather, because the fundamentals here I think are interesting. And if that's what it takes, Guy, I mean, you know. Well, there's something wrong with the metaphor. It's knock me over with a feather because I can't blow you over unless I was shaking the feather in a way that makes the wind blow. Maybe that's how you do it. May I get a read on the chart, Carter?
31:43I mean, the question is after that kind of decline, what is it, 70, almost 80 percent, I believe, is this past six months, has it, does it, is it bottoming? And I would say it has the elements of that. I would say risk-reward is asymmetrical. Downside limited. Upside, potentially something interesting. Coming up, banking on the blockchain. The CEO of Open Reserve joins us next to detail what its new regulatory approval means for the bank and how they are building the world's first continuous lender. That interview when Fast Money returns.
32:21Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks starting the week in the red as fears of a rising rate swept through Wall Street, The Dow falling 152 points. S &P and Nasdaq both falling about a half a percent. The Nasdaq 100 dropping eight tenths of a percent. Shares of data center energy companies dropping on concerns over the AI buildout. GE Vranova leading the losses falling nearly nine percent. Analysts at GLJ Research also initiating the stock with a celebrating amid a$470 price target, about half of where the stock is right now. And Bitcoin higher again today, up more than 25 percent over the past month and looking to retake the$80 ,000 level ahead of tomorrow's Senate vote on the Clarity Act, which would provide a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
33:02Well, meantime, after clearing a major regulatory hurdle, Open Reserve is one step closer to opening its full service national banks designed as blockchain native lenders that can operate around the clock. Joining us on set is Open Reserve CEO and founder, Di Chaube. Di, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. In the tease, we said continuous lender. So can you explain what exactly this means? Sure. So, well, first of all, you mentioned the Clarity Act. Last year, Congress, in a bipartisan way, passed the Genius Act, which opened up the regulatory perimeter for the United States really to bring in stable coins and programmable money into bank regulation frameworks.
33:42Instead of just being unregulated, instead of having really issuers offshore, now, banks can really integrate and interact with stable coins. So once you have stable coins that are on-chain, you open up 24-7 capital markets. So really the purpose of Open Reserve, we received our conditional approval from the OCC about a week ago to really operate a national bank with FDIC insurance proposed. And that allows us really to have these primitives, right? So we will have a stable coin that we will issue, Genius Act compliant. We will also have a tokenized deposit. So, you know, you mentioned the Clarity Act.
34:21There's a lot of brouhaha about yield. But if you're actually a bank that's issuing these primitives, then there are a lot of interoperability between the stable coin and the tokenized deposit, which then become really superpowers for American treasurers and CFOs to get cheaper cost of capital, to get settlement that doesn't stop at 5 p.m. on a Friday. You're not having to bridge the weekend. And for capital markets, for American capital markets, which, for my opinion, is one of the most important exports that we as a society have become even more powerful. You know, we've been hearing about kind of banks being built on blockchain rails for I feel like 10 years.
34:59Right. And our friend BK used to say, like, this is going to be the thing that kind of opens it up. How do you think about getting into capital markets? Like you're focused on lending. Is that a natural extension? Because we keep hearing about tokenized securities, that sort of thing. And it's going to make our lives a lot harder. We're going to have to do this show for hours at a time. They're just going to trade 24-7. Yeah, look, I think it's structural forces combining. You've got the maturation of these blockchain infrastructures. These L1s are now really hardened over the last 15 years. So they're institutional grade ready.
35:30The adoption of stable coins is increasing. I think we're about$300 to$400 billion of stable coins in circulation this year going to just over$2 trillion by 2028. So it creates this demand for Treasury. But in terms of kind of thinking about what's the real use case for the American Treasurer and the CFO, it's a data, right? The bank of the past would be you give me your data, you give me your underwriting file. The bank of the future is you're continuously underwriting data sets like your Snowflake, like your Databricks, like your ERP systems with permissions. Like I was on Codex today for ChatGPT and a pop-up came up and it said, you know, allow me to download a browser extension.
36:09Allow me to actually get access to all of the voice and all of the sound on your computer. And I was saying, yes, allow, allow, allow, because it was giving me back so much value. But for the American treasurer and the CFO, there's trillions of dollars in America in the Russell 2000 that are locked, trapped capital in escrow accounts and lock boxes in restricted cash that sits on balance sheets. So if you give me permission as a bank to underwrite your accounts receivables, data that may be sitting in your AWS account, all of a sudden as a bank, I can continuously underwrite you 24-7 and give you access to capital against that AR, against that trapped balance sheet inventory that you may have.
36:50So, again, it's not going to happen overnight, but we understand that. But the technology for that has to be built today. So it's giving it's giving CEOs and treasurers a lot more flexibility with their balance sheet. And as you say, we'll lower the cost of capital. What's the greatest? See, everything you're talking about is wildly bullish. So what is the biggest misperception right now in both with the legacy players versus the upstarts like you? And you've been at this a while. So but I mean, people are of the assumption that the legacy banks don't want this. Meanwhile, they've been building behind the scenes forever.
37:21Yeah, look, I think there are a couple of things there. Right. I think you're seeing a bifurcation in the value of these blockchains from just a usefulness perspective and the token value. So I think you guys mentioned the Bitcoin price. So that's one element if it's playing out. The other one is the reason to build it from scratch is innovators dilemma. So it's not that the other 4 ,200 banks in America don't have technologists or they don't have access to the same technologies. It's that they have large portfolios of ag loans or mortgage loans or existing business processes. So the opportunity really is for us to really pioneer building that technology.
37:56And then over time, there will be opportunities for us to play nice in the sandbox and offer that technology back to other banks as well. Last quick question, Dee, and that is, you know, how do you see the competition? I mean, how do you see the industry playing out in terms of where you take that dollar from? Sure. Look, first of all, I think we have a very innovative regulatory framework right now that they are inviting diversity in the American banking system. after 08 and 09. It was really hard to get a bank license, especially a national bank charter. But this administration and this regulatory framework is actually inviting innovative business models into the ecosystem.
38:36So you'll see trust charters get licensed. We're a full national bank, so you'll see a few of those as well. But then again, the incumbents will, over time, as mentioned before, will start accumulating. I mean, tokenized deposits are going to take off, the interoperability of them. There's going to be opportunities for new and new substrates and frameworks to be built around this. I personally am very bullish about where this goes in the next two to three years. Dee, good to see you. Thank you. Good to see you. Thank you. When Scott Besson got into office, he made comments around U.S. Treasury-backed stablecoins and how they could potentially be very bullish for the Treasury market and could drive down yields.
39:14That was working for a period of time, and then it seemingly lost favor. But what Dee talks about now, if there's this sort of reemergence of that happening, if you're looking for a bullish bond bet or bond sort of thesis, that's the one right there. Coming up, the summary on a software laggard. One stock sitting out today's rally in the space, what the chart master sees in the technicals when Fast Money returns.
39:43Welcome back to Fast Money. Software stocks broadly catching a bit today, but one name notably sitting out the rally. That would be Synopsis. Shares down 4 % today, almost 20 % this year, by far lagging the group. And the chart master thinks it is time for investors to cut their losses. So, Carter, what do the charts say? Yeah, before we get to the chart, a big day for this group, of course. Breath, I mean, 80 % of the constituents in the software space up. And yet, a big laggard, a big name. Let's look at some charts. I got seven in total. They're all annotated differently. First one, no lines, no arrows, no judgments.
40:17Let's get to it. Second iteration, one way to draw the lines. The key here is that we're hovering right at these well-defined break levels. Next iteration, you can call it a descending triangle, but the point is we are hovering at a critical break juncture. Third iteration, draw the lines. It's very precise. This is what topping action looks like. Let's get that circle in there again. Keep going. Another way to draw the lines. We've broken trend. We're into the apex, this formation, and we're failing. One more time. And then finally, there's this way. And so actually, I think we have one other.
40:54One more. Let's go forward again. A big topping out. That's not good. So big move for the group. 40 % constituents up more than 5%. A lot of them up 10 % today. This is a notable lag. Relative strength matters. And here's the real problem, of course. What a winner. 50 to almost 800. That's how something ages out and rolls over. Convincing seven charts there. Very convincing. And this is Carter has it in front of him, I'm sure. But I'm looking at it. I think it made its all-time high somewhere in the summer of 2025. It's been trending lower ever since. Series of lower highs, lower lows. Tim mentioned investor days and how stocks usually rally.
41:34We'll see because they have one at the end of the month, but it's hard to make a bullish case for this now, given that technical formation. Coming up, new numbers from Netflix's big down under NFL bet. Do the streamers focus on live sports pay off? What will it mean for the stock? And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Broadcom. Catch the full interview, top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.
42:07Welcome back to Fast Money. We are getting some streaming numbers from Netflix's NFL game in Australia last week. Alex Sherman's got the details. Hey, Alex. Hey, Melissa. You know, it seems like every time I'm on here, I'm talking about soaring ratings numbers. So today is a little interesting. This isn't bad, but these numbers are more nuanced. So there's sort of good news and bad news on two fronts. Let's start with Netflix. The numbers came out today, 18.5 million viewers for the Australia 49ers Rams game for Netflix. That is the same exact number for last year's week one international game that was on YouTube.
42:46And that game was free for everyone. This game, you need a Netflix subscription. So apples to apples, that is good news. a strong number for Netflix, that a subscription-based service has the exact same viewership as a game that was free for everyone. By the way, the international numbers on that Netflix game, 3.2 million viewers. That is a significant increase from last year's number, which was just 1.2 million. That's the amount of people watching the game not in the U.S. So that number, 18.5 million, much larger than the standard Thursday night game that airs on Amazon, which is about 15.3 million based on last year's numbers.
43:24Now, here's the bad news. If you compare it to Wednesday's game between the Patriots and the Seahawks, that game got 25.1 million viewers. So it shows that there's still a delta between an all-streaming game and a game that airs on both broadcast TV and streaming. That game aired on both NBC and Peacock. That's good news for the legacy media companies that certainly are going to want to re-up football when that deal comes around, likely, at the end of the 2029-30 season. Now, here's the bad news on that front. That 25.1 million number, the lowest in four years, down 11 % from last year. So a nuanced picture here.
44:05We'll get more data on this after the games for Sunday afternoon and tonight's game come out in the next day or two. I'm not sure what to think after all that. But it sounds like even though there is a proliferation of games available to the viewer, the viewers still want to watch. Yeah, I think the most interesting number in all of that that I just laid out to you is the last one. Because if for the first time in years, we actually sense that there may be a ceiling on viewership. And again, we'll get more data week one. That would be a turning point. We've kind of been wondering, numbers seemingly go up and up and up and up for football every single year.
44:53Is there ever going to be a point where viewership levels out? I mean, logically thinking there would have to be. Well, maybe this year is the year. Again, we will get a little bit more data in the next couple days for at least the week one games. Alex, thanks. Alex Sherman. That ceiling was hit for you, Tim, I think. Well, I think I was the one. Guy would say he was excited to go listen to his men at work cassette tapes. And I was saying I was actually they had jumped the shark. I think Alex made some a lot of that made a lot of sense for me. I think for Netflix, it was very bullish. I think live TV, which makes up about one percent of their viewing hours and it's five percent of their budget.
45:31And there's a lot of opportunity in an international market. Good for them. I'm long Netflix. I think it was good. Yeah. The other thing is there were commercials throughout this game. Right. And this is something that advertising is going to be a big sort of, you know, it's got to be a big part of their going forward, especially if they're going to pay for these sorts of sports rights. So, again, conditioning Netflix users to see commercials for different programming, I think that's probably a bullshitting. Up next, Final Trades. Final Trades.
46:12Final trade time, Timbo. If you want rotation into non-cyclical and interest rate sensitive and AI stuff, buy Johnson & Johnson. You've got three consumer businesses. You have pharma and two consumer businesses. That makes sense. Carter. Synopsis, that's not a good chart and that's not good price action. Diesel, Dan. Yeah, I think AI spending. Pullback is good for the mags, M-A-G-S. Good seats still available at each... Where? Out of shape for tonight's game. Yeah. The birds are in town. Coca-Cola, KO. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.
46:56All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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From the publisher
Stocks mostly shaking off rising rates and oil prices, as AI leaders sound the alarm on potential threats from the fast-growing tech. How the Fast Money traders are navigating the market moves, and how it all sets the stage ahead of the Fed rate meeting this week. Plus, cyber stocks surge, Novo’s rebrand as the weight-loss drug race heats up, and banking on blockchain; what the ceo of OpenReserve sees in store for crypto and fintech ahead of the Senate’s Clartiy vote tomorrow.
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