Business Runs on Data. But What About Hunches?

8 Jul 2026 · 3 min · 2 chapters

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In short

How to understand and quantify “gut feel” and intuition alongside data-driven decision-making, using examples from early-stage investing and product engineering.

Guest backgrounds

The speaker is a researcher with a technical engineering background who studied how to quantify unquantifiable factors like intuition. They conducted early research by interviewing early-stage investors.

Key claims

In engineering, the best product doesn’t always win; subtle cues and perceptions, including intuition, influence outcomes. When asked how they decide, investors cite both data/financials and gut feel; one investor described making decisions by rubbing his belly.

Notable examples

Investor decisions on investing vs passing on companies; the “best product doesn’t win” observation from designing new products.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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The Role of Gut Feel in Investment Decisions

0:04 to 0:27

Learn how instincts play a crucial role alongside data in investments.

“It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks.”

The Role of Gut Feel in Investment Decisions

1:22 to 2:10

Learn how instincts play a crucial role alongside data in investments.

“How do we actually start to quantify something like our intuition or our gut feel?”
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Transcript

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0:01Laura Huang:This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. Good sleep is everything. That's why OLLI's Science Back Support is made with a blend of melatonin and L-theanine for both kiddos and grownups.

0:35So when your mind won't switch off, you've got something that can help. Erasing thoughts and restless nights won't stand a chance. Find OLLI's sleep solutions for the whole family at OLLI.com. That's O-L-L-Y dot com. All right, so I want to ask you, you're deep in the field of studying what it means to rely on your instincts, to have a gut feel for something. What made you decide even to go into that field? You know, I came from a very technical background. I was an engineer, was designing lots of new products. And what I realized very quickly on was that it was never the best product that won.

1:12There were all these subtle cues and factors and perceptions and even intuitions that dictated whether something went forward or not. A lot of my earliest research was around how do we quantify the unquantifiable? How do we actually start to quantify something like our intuition or our gut feel? So I know that one of the first bits of research you did was with early stage investors. Yeah. So, you know, I found that a lot of times when I was asking investors, well, how did you decide to invest in XYZ company or how did you decide to pass on ABC company? 100 % of the people I spoke with, they would talk about the data, the financials, but they would also talk about their gut feel.

1:56I even had one investor actually, every time I would ask him something, well, how did you make this decision? I just rubbed my belly. I just rubbed my belly. Obviously, don't try that at home. Yes. That kind of illustrates in some way that factor, that we have this gut feel around the decisions that we make.

From the publisher

Business Runs on Data. But What About Instinct?

8 Aug 2025

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Professor Laura Huang traded engineering for business research. She wanted to know if the instincts guiding big decisions could be understood, measured, and explained.

🎧 Listen to the full IdeaCast episode here: https://s.hbr.org/4m8spSx

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