Reid Hoffman on How He Makes Winning Bets in Silicon Valley

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0:35So when your mind won't switch off, you've got something that can help. Erasing thoughts and restless nights won't stand a chance. Find OLLI's sleep solutions for the whole family at OLLI.com. That's O-L-L-Y dot com. You have had an incredible career in Silicon Valley and driven in part by being really good at discerning weak signals before they become obvious to the rest of us. Is there a method to that? Start with kind of the Wayne Gretzky line, which is things are changing. Skate to where the puck is going, not to where the puck is right now. Okay, so what are the ways in which things could change or seem to be changing?

1:12And then what are the consequences of that? But then go ask people in your network, what do you see is going to happen in the next one to five years in this technology? What do you think might happen with it? What do you think people think might happen is actually not going to happen. It's going to happen differently. And then you begin to think about, OK, which of those things track to what actions you should take differently? Part of it is it's always probabilistic. Being overly certain is wrong. Because very rarely it's like I should presume 100 % unless I can just correct from it. Whereas kind of thinking, OK, there's a good chance of this.

1:41So it's a good chance. What does that mean I should do now? But it's like, oh, I should do X. Now, some of that's investing, some of that's deploying technologies, some of that's kind of guiding an organization into what you're doing. So that's the kind of the looking at the future is what are the different trends? And you look at all of those things and you go, okay, what might happen? And if that might happen, how should that change what I'm doing now? The right window treatments change everything. Your sleep, your privacy, the way every room looks and feels. At Blinds.com, we've spent 30 years making it surprisingly simple to get exactly what your home needs.

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