The Economic Data Business Leaders Should Be Watching

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0:45Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. It's a confusing time for anyone trying to make sense of the economy. One day tariffs are on, then they're off again. Spending cuts are announced, then reversed. It's hard to keep track. And when things move this fast, it's tough to know what's really happening and what that means for your business. I'm Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale. In a recent HBR article, my co-author Ernie Tedeschi and I break down how to make sense of this uncertainty and what signals business leaders should really be watching.

1:20Right now, what economists call the hard data, measures of actual economic activity, have largely held steady. But some measures are starting to show signs of weakness. We can see that in four key areas. First, uncertainty is clearly rising. Businesses don't know what policy environment they're operating in, and that's making them cautious. Second, despite all the noise, government spending hasn't actually fallen. It's running slightly ahead of where it was last year, thanks in part to inflation. Third, the labor market remains stable. We're not seeing a clear big spike in unemployment claims right now.

1:52But just because things are steady today doesn't mean they'll stay that way. Finally, shipments are starting to dramatically decline. And we expect those impacts to be felt in coming weeks by businesses and consumers. If you want to stay ahead, here's the data you should continue to keep an eye on. If overall government spending slows down, that could signal a broader pullback in the economy. A drop here could be an early sign that private sector hiring is starting to cool off. Still one of the fastest indicators of labor market stress. Things like job postings, credit card spending, and retirement withdrawals can offer quick, if imperfect, signals of economic activity.

2:25Also very important for tracking global trade flows. The news cycle is noisy and it's not slowing down. But by focusing on the right data, you can make smarter, steadier decisions for your business. To learn more, you can read the full article from me and Ernie Tedeschi at hbr.org. I'm Glenn Washington, host of Snap Judgment, the award-winning storytelling podcast from KQED. Every week, Snap deals a new card. like the girl whose sister was a monkey or the man who lived in the woods for 30 years or even the woman who snuck her lover out of prison in a dog crate. Pick a card. Any card. Tap to listen now to Snap Judgment from KQED on Spotify.

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