A Framework for the Future: Identifying Tech's Trailblazers ft. David Mattin and Rene Bruentrup

28:49Like people always or often people criticize them for like the tiny R &D budgets that they have. But if you look at the total spending since the company was founded and what they have created with it, it's a fantastic productivity on the invested capital. And yeah, I think that this track record, in my opinion, it gives them credibility and it should be considered. Yeah, and the ambition is certainly sky high because they say they want Dojo to be within the top five supercomputers in the world. like yesterday, and then they want to like 100x that. And I think that's where the kind of specialization you talked about comes in.

29:31They can build something that's far more powerful, they believe they can build something that's far more powerful than any current supercomputer for the very narrow domain that it's focused in, which is machine vision, AI to allow objects to navigate unstructured physical environments. Do you see Dojo, do you see that intelligence becoming a profit center itself? You know, I mean, essentially a service that others can access. You've likened it a bit to, you know, what Amazon Web Services is to the cloud, you know? You know, I used to be very excited about Tesla outsourcing various of their capabilities to other companies.

30:12Like Elon, for example, talks about like their enterprise software. They did that all themselves from scratch, for example. They don't have SAP or anything else like that. Or like selling the skateboards to other companies of their cars and maybe even like Dojo as a service. And Elon has said that himself, right? But over time, to be honest, I've sobered up a little bit on this idea. I mean, they have recently, they had some success with finally sharing the Supercharger network with other companies. but still I have more and more the opinion that Tesla as a company is operating very unique and also like other companies have difficulties collaborating with Elon because of his personality and his style.

31:00So, I mean, I would be very excited if something like that happens but we're in the very early stage of this dojo. We will have to see where they get with that. I'm optimistic that they want 100x the capacity of this thing over the next very short-term future. And I actually think it's not that unreasonable to assume that there will be orders of magnitude of improvements there, given where supercomputers are headed, from the academic solutions to the commercial providers that will take the next stage of supercomputing. So it will be successful for Tesla. whether it will be successful for other companies.

31:38I don't want to be carried away too much of this. If something like that happens, great. Yeah, but I think there are also a lot of obstacles in the way. Yeah, yeah. Interesting. And I mean, I want to jump to valuation and a bit more detail on that in just a second. But seeing as you touched on it just there, I mean, Elon is just a controversial figure who divides opinion. I think it's fair to say it would be putting it mildly. What's your take on what is your take on Elon? Do you have a take on Elon personally? And how does it impact the way you think about the company? I mean, you know, let's be honest.

32:17Some people are wary of Tesla and, you know, wary of the investment philosophy you're putting forward. You know, it might all make sense in terms of the technologies and the thinking, but they feel that there's just this wild card in there. And then the chance of him screwing something up is too great, despite the sort of track record, right, to get to this point, which is clearly extremely impressive. What is your take on all of that? How do you deal with that? It's difficult sometimes. There are moments where I, like he buys the Bitcoin, like six weeks after he has raised money, right? So basically he took my money as a shareholder to buy Bitcoin, which I didn't agree to.

33:03And then he buys Twitter. That's all good. But then he changes. He just removes the company name. And the logo is different now. But it's a half-ass change of the company name because it hasn't never been announced or anything like that. And people still refer to it as Twitter. And sometimes I'm like, what are you doing there? But then I see again what SpaceX is doing and how he's landing rockets simultaneously. and what he has done with Tesla before. And he said in 2013, he will do 500 ,000 cars in 2020. And he did it. And he said a year ago, when the first cars of Model Y were delivered, or not even that, he said it will be the best-selling vehicle in 2023.

33:48And he did it, right? And so on the big things where he really spends a lot of time on, he tends to deliver. and I think he gets a lot of criticism for the stuff that he doesn't fulfill but in general I think he's immensely successful and also the way he thinks and when he talks about things I can resonate, like a lot of that resonates with me so I still view him as a key asset for Tesla I still think Tesla performs better with Elon than without and I just trust that he will like if you think about Elon like the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde analogy. And I still feel like the positive side of Elon will outshine the questionable one, so to say.

34:37So I'm very excited about him. I think he's doing great things. I'm a fan of his success. So for me, again, I'm happy that he is there And he's a critical factor to why I'm so excited about the company. Yeah, I increasingly think of him as, you know, I mean, obviously an incredible tech visionary and also an incredible sort of attention engineer. I mean, he engineers attention around himself and his companies in highly effective ways. And I think one of his great insights has been that almost always attention is beneficial. We live in an economy and an environment now driven a lot by attention.

35:24And he's drawn attention to himself and his companies in incredible ways. And that on the whole has benefited them. And he's clearly amazing at building great teams, right? Because you don't get anywhere near putting something together like Dojo without an incredible team working on that. And he's clearly able to build and maintain those teams. That's the other thing I feel like people forget. The narrative becomes very simplistic. People forget that he's not their hands-on building all this stuff single-handedly. Part of what the man clearly is able to do, whether you like him or not, is put together teams of amazing people that do execute.

36:08Okay, look, let's talk valuation. We distilled the whole model right at the beginning. and you even mentioned valuation right at the beginning too but let's put it together step by step you have batteries and renewable energy as this as this hugely powerful mega trend for the coming decades pushed by everything you know we all know we need to move to renewable energy billions and billions of dollars of government funding behind it it's going to be absolutely vast and that is an innovation platform of its own then it's about who can wrap compelling products around that mega trend around batteries essentially um and to do that you need ai that allows physical objects to be able to cope in a physical environment and tesla is as we've outlined almost uniquely well placed and that's partly to do with dojo to be that company you don't think anymore which is really interesting to me that dojo becomes a service that that becomes a profit center of its own so how do you build to the valuation that you get to for 2030 you know it becomes about we haven't even mentioned um the optimist humanoid robot yet we will talk about a bit more about that in a minute but how do you build the parts of that that valuation?

37:36I mean, I've read you talking about auto software, insurance, financing. Talk us through the 2030 valuation in a bit more detail. Yeah, I think the first step for me was to realize that current earnings or let's say 12 months forward earnings is not a good value indicator for Tesla. It has never been great. There was a time last year maybe where it became relevant, But a company that's growing as fast as this company is and trading current or near-term success so much for long-term success will not have currently the earnings power that is representative for where they be in the long term. Earnings for them will at some point move non-linearly.

38:23And if any kind of PE ratio or PEG ratio will assume a linearity in that. So I think that set up a major valuation bear trap this year, which I think we've seen that unfolding for the first half of this year. And we'll see how that goes moving forward. But I'm not worried at all. When I see like the stock trade at 70 times and I compare that to the S &P, that's not an argument for me that I consider relevant. So we need to have a long-term valuation view for this company. and we need to consider what this company might become because they will not stay in this current shape. And maybe this is a good moment to put up the chart five that I send it in.

39:05And this is a fundamental thought, isn't it? How we assess Tesla now in terms of how much hardware is it shipping, how many cars is it shipping, is not going to be the way that we should think about the company five, ten years out. So yeah, talk us through that. Yeah. So basically today, people look at this as a hardware company, right? So Tesla is about how much metal do they ship every quarter? And then how much money do they make with that? And then what's the margin? And then people use that to build out models. And they think about what is the EV penetration in 2030? What's the market share?

39:44And what's the average selling price and all these things? And they build out a model for that. And I think that will remain to be relevant, but it will in the future be less relevant. So the shape of the company will shift all the time. And that's actually not unusual. So if you look at big tech companies, they operate also like fleet or user-based business models. Or you look at the car manufacturers. They make most of their money with their financing arms and with their aftermarket business. So they monetize the fleet that's already out there. So the two most important peer groups for Tesla, big tech and automotive, it's both very important for them to monetize the fleet and not just every vehicle that they sell.

40:29So it's natural that Tesla will go there too. And in this overview here, that's from one of the articles that I've written in the past, I've tried to highlight, it's basically the services business. The services share of the revenues and profits will rise in the future. There will be opportunities for them to monetize the fleet. For example, software. Even if robotaxis do not come to fruition in the near term, the full self-driving is already a very attractive business model for them. It generates like a billion dollar in revenues for them at very high margins. And most of that, you cannot even see that in their financials.

41:12Later on, we can touch on that more on the other charts that I sent over. But so they will monetize the fleet by selling software and then software subscriptions. They will be able to sell insurance, for example. They have the direct relationship with the end customer that insurance companies do not have. They have the information on the cars more than the legacy automakers have. They have the better information on like EVs in general have usually quite high insurance premiums because actuaries at insurance companies don't have that much information on this yet because it's a very nascent product.

41:50And so if you think about a company, for example, like Progressive or Allstate, they spend 10 % of their revenues every year just to acquire policies. And Tesla will not have that or will have much less of that because they're selling through an app. They can just buy insurance from us in there and they have the customer. So that would be important. Financing. To operate a financing business, you need to have economies of scale, which Tesla didn't have. They have like 4 million vehicles on the road. Volkswagen has 100 million vehicles on the road. So that's important. And you need a credit rating, an investment-grade credit rating, which Tesla didn't have for the longest time, but now they do.

42:33So it's natural to me that they will venture into car financing business. It's extremely profitable to sell loans to automotive customers. Some of these companies make more money with the financing arms than with selling the vehicles. You can almost think about a car factory as a method to acquire loan customers because that's where you make the money. So that would be important as well. So there are a lot of aspects to Tesla's business where they can monetize the existing fleet far beyond what they're doing right now. And they will move into this direction. And it will also be relevant for the energy business as well, virtual power plants and so on.

43:19But that's much more nascent. So didn't get too much into that for now. These were just a few examples of the opportunities that they will have in the future to monetize the existing fleet will be very important. And in my Tesla 2030 scenario, it's just one scenario that's thinkable. It's not necessarily what it has to happen. But I see them having like 20 % of their profits from these services businesses seven years down the road. And it will be an important pillar to their long-term earnings growth story, in my opinion. Yeah, so it becomes less about, I mean, if I'm understanding this right, it becomes less about, you know, just how much hardware are you shipping?

44:01How many cars are you selling to more about what is the revenue per car that you're drawing from services? The revenue per user, right, that you're that you're drawing from, you know, software updates, from car financing, from insurance. Exactly. It's a services revenue model, right? Is that right? Exactly, yeah. I think that will definitely, the importance of that will grow in the future. We will have to see how fast, but it will become an important part of the investment story. And that's what gets us to, by 2030, this$5 trillion valuation that you talked about right at the beginning. Yeah, so at the beginning, I did that very high level, right?

44:48Three terawatt hours times$150 is$450 billion gross profit times a multiple of 10 on gross profit, just to keep it very simple, would be in the ballpark of$4 to$5 trillion. In that model that you referred to in the article, I think I came up with a valuation of somewhere between$3 and$4 trillion. In these long-term projections, it's important that it's not like a price target that has to be hit with surgical precision. I just want to see with some, in a bull case, needs to be optimistic. If you are not optimistic about the company, you might as well just not buy it. So there needs to be optimism in there.

45:27But you need to find a balance between optimism and also being prudent. You want to have a margin of safety in there. You don't build an investment case based on the assumption that the company would perform to perfection. So yeah, people can check that out. I think that's one of the free articles that I have out there. Some of them are paid. Some are free. This one, I think it's free. People can check it out and criticize it or give feedback and play with the assumptions themselves. Yeah, that's the idea. Yeah, and I'd absolutely encourage people to check it out. You know, if you go Faladac, you'll find Rene Substack.

46:05You can read some of these articles for free that go deep on Tesla and deep on the models that we're talking about. And, you know, most of your assumptions are pretty conservative. You know, I've seen people building models of Tesla with with I have to be honest, sort of, you know, less conservative, somewhat more outlandish baseline assumptions. And you're still getting to kind of 5x valuation from now in 2030.

46:36Tesla find ways to wrap more profitable, even more profit than you assume around the batteries and you get to higher valuations. I mean, that doesn't seem to me in any way like an outlandish thought. You know, of course, there's no guarantee. Yeah, absolutely, right? But I don't want to assume that they will build 20 million vehicles in seven years. I think that's their goal, but I think it would be fantastic if they did that. But I don't want to buy the share here in 2023 based on the assumption that they will have such a ridiculous delivery by then, right? Yeah, right. That's what Elon wants and that's what he says.

47:20But no, I think it's a wise investment philosophy to not sort of consider that gospel truth. Okay, look, we've gone really deep on Tesla. I promised that we'd talk a little bit about some other key exponential age companies. And it's this real world AI model that I find, as well as the battery, the battery model I find so compelling. And then bringing in that real world AI model, I just find deeply compelling too, and really fruitful for other thinking about the exponential age. Because so much of my right age, often in RAL's Global Macro Investor, but elsewhere as well, is about saying to the reader, look, there's this deep merging going on of the of the digital and the physical of the realm of information and the physical world, you know, bits and atoms.

48:14And it feels to me that real-world AI is essentially the same idea. We're going to bring machine intelligence into the physical environment. And that's going to be a decade-on-decade megatrend that is just deeply, deeply powerful. It really helps us understand why Tesla is so important when it comes to the exponential age. But there's another company that it makes very important, and that's NVIDIA. Talk to us about your view of NVIDIA and what you think they're about and what you think they mean in the context of this broader picture. Yeah, so NVIDIA, I tried to look at them a couple of times over the past years.

48:57I find this fascinating company. I never really found an angle where I feel like I understood it better than and maybe others that warrants then an investment for me, because it's just a black box sometimes. And it's a growth company for sure, but it's also supremely cyclical as a company. And so it's sometimes or often it's difficult to infer where the structural component of their growth rate is right now. And so that makes it very challenging to invest in there. And I think many people have been burned in both directions. but it has become a sentiment gauge for an entire theme that's currently dominating the investment world.

49:37So I feel obliged to look into this and form a view on that. So I wrote a bunch of articles on them. I think what is clear, markets don't like uncertainty so maybe that's why they are more cautious on companies that actually try to generate future growth with AI but markets know that is there gold to find in the AI revolution? We don't know that yet. ChatGPT is a nice tool but it has yet to be proven how much you can actually disrupt the economy but there will be many companies or most companies that will be looking for gold or digging for gold over the next years. So it's natural that you bet on the companies selling the shovels for the gold rush, or even in this case, selling the blades and the shafts for the gold rush.

50:33And that, I think, is the reason why NVIDIA is performing so well out there. And so far, and that's the second reason why I'm looking at this company. It's a sentiment gauge on capital expenditures on information technology, which is one of the most important corporate investment aspect out there during this time. And so if they do well, then that could even be a recession or not a recession indicator. So I look at that as well. And maybe we can quickly put up the chart four here as well to support that point that I will make. Yeah, and fundamental to this is that But, you know, I mean, NVIDIA's GPUs are being used to train these huge AI models, these large language models.

51:28If you want to build one of these models right now, you pretty much have to go to NVIDIA. I mean, and I think I read this in your newsletter. In fact, you know, you have Elon on an earnings call saying, yeah, they're not going to be able to ship us GPUs quick enough. We're just going to be a huge customer. And the trouble for us is they have so many other huge customers, too. You know, they just can't make the stuff quick enough right now for us to train enough AI. We desperately need compute. It just feels like NVIDIA. I mean, and that is what underpins your view of NVIDIA as, look, they are the people making the shovels for this gold rush.

52:05And Tesla are participating in the gold rush. They're hunting for the gold. Are they going to find it? Are they not going to find it? We don't really know. the market doesn't really feel like it knows yet. But there's a great business to be had right now in just handing out those shovels. Exactly. And that comment from Elon was very comforting for NVIDIA shareholders, right? Because I think that's the key question. Yeah. Are they really that supply limit? Or is there at some point also a demand limit there? And let's put on the chart again because I haven't talked about it yet. it shows the share price of NVIDIA versus the fiscal year 2025 revenue consensus.

52:52And you can see that it was before their latest earnings, before the Q1 earnings actually, investors or analysts were expecting that they will generate maybe up to$40 billion in revenues next year. And now this number is at$70 billion. And this year alone, they will probably grow their net income by 20 billion. That's in all S &P companies together generate 2 trillion in net income. So that alone, like the net income jump this year from NVIDIA, it's a 1 % earnings growth contribution at S &P level. So this is huge. This is like an enormous growth driver that is going on right there. And it validates, maybe it validates also the NVIDIA business case or the investment case, because you can see it now, like they're trading at second quarter annualized earnings per share of 40 times.

53:51So that's not outlandish anymore, right? It's not like the 200 times that were floating around earlier. So all of a sudden, the fundamentals are supporting NVIDIA's share price. But it also validates the entire AI theme because all of a sudden you can see here that this is an actual growth driver because it will reach far beyond NVIDIA's income statement. Their revenues are their customers' capital expenditures. And they will only do these CapEx if they believe they can generate revenues with that and or save costs. So this will have multiple effects of just Nvidia's income statement in these other companies as well.

54:33Growth always happens when companies invest or when general economies invest. So this is a very important theme here that shows that at this point in time, the AI theme is definitely a valid investment theme. We'll see how it plays out in the future. But this is way more than just illusion, than exuberance or anything like that. Because there's just huge spending going on behind it. And essentially, it feels to me your view of NVIDIA is, I mean, I know you don't have a valuation view. You're not an investor. But you're seeing them as a gauge for the belief and the depth of this AI innovation platform that we're in the early stages of right now, right?

55:19Absolutely. I think Jensen Wang, he mentioned that there is$1 trillion of cloud computing infrastructure out there. It's a$250 billion market every year. And that will go from CPUs to GPUs. And that's validated by companies like Tesla going a similar route. They're buying huge clusters from NVIDIA and other companies as well. NVIDIA is the prime AI supplier there. So, yeah, this thing is real for now. at least from the perspective of the investment into it and the company's belief into that. That's absolutely real. And then it will be interesting to see what comes out of that in the next couple of years.

56:02Yeah. And then when, you know, when we think about this deep merging of the digital and the physical, that I'm so convinced underpins so much of what we're calling the exponential age and underpins so much of what's about to happen and underpins our thinking about your thinking and our thinking about Tesla. It's a really fruitful model for thinking about another company that I just think is so much misunderstood and probably underestimated right now. And that is Meta. You've got some really interesting frameworks when it comes to thinking about Meta. Tell us a bit about those and let's dive in a little bit there.

56:42Yeah, so last year, I think there were two types of people buying meta. And the first of them was valuation driven. It's so cheap. The core business is performing well and you need to buy it. They just need to stop spending on the metaverse. And the other part, the other people were those saying, OK, metaverse is the future. Everything will become digital and we will just put on the glasses and just leave the physical world and go into the digital world. and then I think mine is kind of a third approach to it and I called that at some point metaverse in reverse because I think the meta quest that they have is a fascinating device but it's only the first step it will move from VR to AR like bringing the digital world into the physical world that's in my opinion where the future growth is not the other way around like we don't want to be away from the physical world.

57:39Like we don't, like now we communicate with the digital world with the phone. And then we're always staring down, right? We are like generation heads down. And I think this is like the most annoying part about using mobile devices. You don't want to be like that. You want to be generation heads up, right? I think that's what I call the article from generation heads down to generation heads up because you want to include the digital information and augment your physical reality with that. And that will be 15 years ago, the iPhone was revealed, and I think we won't look down for another 15 years.

58:15There will be another paradigm shift in the communication between a human and the computer. And in my opinion, like a heads up, like an AR glass, that will be where it's headed. And Meta did at that time and still does. They are investing most courageously into this space with a great product. Recently, my hypothesis was that Apple is maybe being left behind once again. They always had this dream about going into EVs and self-driving cars and so on. Never did that because they couldn't enter the market at some point anymore with a product that was orders of magnitude better than what was already out there.

58:59And they need to do that to preserve their brand. And I think my fear was they were doing the same thing now, not betting courageously enough on this. And Mark Zuckerberg will let them here as well. But I must say, when they revealed their new Apple glasses a couple of weeks ago, it was actually very impressive. And yeah, it's 10 times more expensive than the Meta product. So it's maybe a little bit of an unfair comparison because meta goes really for penetration at all costs, whereas Apple plays more like the premium segment. But still, they seem to be serious about this. And this will develop more.

59:40These devices will become smaller. And I think if you're the gatekeeper between the humans and the digital content, then you can monetize that. Just like Apple is now the gatekeeper. companies have to pay them to be in the app store and so on. They need to follow their rules. And yeah, I think the AR glasses, that will be a similar thing. So whoever controls that will also be generating a lot of revenue and earnings from that. And so I'm excited about Meta's path, but I'm also a bit concerned about that Apple is also here, like a fierce competitor that they always are. And we'll have to see how Meta can compete with that.

1:00:21But definitely they're investing into that with the biggest. They have at the moment the biggest AI computer in the world, their research supercluster that they have. It's the biggest that exists out there. So they have also an on-premise supercomputing system, and they're walking this path as well. So there will be a beneficiary if there's gold to find. Yeah, I think this is hugely powerful for understanding what the exponential age fundamentally is about. And, you know, meta just burned so badly across sort of 2021, 2022, when the kind of media hype bubble around the metaverse popped. And everyone's like, oh, this is a load of shit.

1:01:09And this was all, you know, it's meaningless. It's a load of rubbish. And, of course, there was a lot of hype around the metaverse in 2021. 2021. And I do take the view that probably the word itself is so damaged by hype and ridiculousness that it's going to be retired. Like, you know, no one talks about the information superhighway now or like surfing the web. You know what I mean? I think we'll come to look or if we haven't already, we'll come to look back on that word and cringe a little bit. It will be very much of its time. But the underlying phenomenon, which is another dimension of this deep merging of information and the physical, I just think is so important for people to understand.

1:01:48On the one hand, you have a company like Tesla essentially marrying physical objects with the world of information and doing that via intelligence, doing that via machine intelligence. So you're making physical objects intelligent. And then you have a company like Meta, and they're really at the forefront of this. And that's what I think makes them so important. Bringing the digital world into the physical. So exactly as you say, with augmented reality, we're going to drop a digital layer over the physical environment. So information becomes part of the physical environment. And in the end, the boundaries between the two become kind of meaningless.

1:02:29We're a long way from, I think part of what makes that compelling is when you can just put on a pair of glasses that do that augmented reality glasses, rather than a huge big headset that's like fiddly to put on and it still weighs too much. But Meta are spending more and doing more than anyone else to get to that world. And that, and I think you agree, is what makes them so compelling. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. They're head to head with that because Apple are not going to take that line down. And you can see, you know, clearly, and they've got the track record and they've got the technology and they're building the technology to compete there.

1:03:09I think that's going to be an epic exponential age war for ownership of that space. Absolutely. And no one has a crystal ball as to how that one's going to turn out. It's going to be very, very interesting to watch. And that is what would make me wary as an investor of picking either one, because it's very hard to say who's going to win there. Look, this has been absolutely fascinating. I just want to circle back around to the big thesis that I feel has been at the heart of all of this, real world AI, and just think quickly about where real world AI goes next across the next 18 months, two, three years.

1:03:53Talk to us a bit about how you see that evolving. I mean, the Optimus robot is going to be a big part of Tesla's strategy going forward? Because it feels to me that the car is just the first step in this bigger project of real world AI for Tesla. Yeah, I don't know if you saw their AI Day presentation last year. It was actually very encouraging that they're using the same principles that they use for the cars. They will have to see how quickly that can develop, but it's definitely a very exciting avenue that they're taking there because what they're doing with their car is like it demonstrates that what they're doing with the car is generalized enough to apply to other AI applications.

1:04:42And I think that's the crucial part. And that's also what differentiates their approach from other companies, FSD approaches, when they have, like they will have issues scaling their solutions when they rely on the pre-mapping, for example. If you had to redevelop Google for every city that you want to use it in, I don't think they would have become that dominant of a search engine. So this generalizable approach that they have used, that has been validated on AI Day, at least if you believe what they're saying, but I think they wouldn't just flat out lie to you. It was credible to me what they presented there, so it's very exciting to me and also what's exciting to me is how much effort Elon is putting in there because usually when something does not come to fruition he's usually after a while he's silent about that but on this aspect he's actually very vocal about it and if he has his attention on something usually something will come out of it and yeah it like I don't know when the first robots will be sold to customers.

1:05:49They will probably use them themselves first to see what they can do, right? It will take years. And if you look at previous product reveals that they've had, like the semi and the Cybertruck and the new Roadster and so on, it can take a long time from the product reveal to actual commercialization. But yeah, it's definitely something very exciting to look forward to. Yeah. And I think that your point about it being generalizable is absolutely fundamental. And again, that helps explain some of the technical decisions that seemed very strange at the time. There was when they took LiDAR out of Tesla's and it now turns out that that looks pretty smart because if you're using cameras, You can take machine vision hardware and the same AI and put it in that Optimus robot.

1:06:44And yeah, exactly as you say, you have a generalizable system across all kinds of objects that allows those objects in a car, robot, small robot, little robot dog, whatever it is, all of them to navigate the physical environment using this proprietary machine intelligence, this proprietary model that you've developed. And that to me is what makes Tesla, and I know you too, just such a unique player in this space. And I do wonder if this is the only point of disagreement. If you build that, it feels to me that everyone else wants it. Everyone else wants to hire that, basically hire that machine vision, hire that AI from you.

1:07:24There's a whole bunch of humanoid robots coming. There's like 10, 20 players in that space and their ai is not going to be half as competent as the as the model that dojo is developing they're going to knock on tesla's door and say can we run our hardware off your ai huge money to be made maybe you know and maybe the wise thing to say is no you know maybe the wise thing to say is no but it's potentially just a massive revenue stream yeah i don't disagree I think I agree with that 100%. Just as an investor, I prefer not to rely on it. I kind of want to support the decision of investing in the stock without that aspect.

1:08:07Because if all these things come to fruition, I think the stock will be like, I don't know, 10, 50, 100 times more valuable than today. And at that point, it doesn't even matter to me anymore. Right. So it's about like justifying it in a reasonable scenario and then be able to buy it. And if you get a free call option on something like that on top of that, that's great. Right. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. So you have that 5x, you know, model from today, 2035 trillion, a five trillion dollar company. But you're also buying a lottery ticket on something that is just utterly mind-blowing, which is an innovation platform, to use your phrase, that essentially dwarfs the scale of the internet, that transforms our relationship with the physical environment.

1:08:56and ends up with us having a humanoid robot in pretty much every household in the global north that can finally make dinner, make your cup of tea, load the dishwasher, go outside and clean the car and just get all that done. And just, I mean, if we thought that the phone changed our lives, that's potentially the next deeply life-changing piece of technology coming. and it may well be fueled by Tesla's model, but no guarantees on that, obviously. The future is uncertain. Yes, the future is uncertain. No one has a crystal ball. But look, this has been absolutely fascinating. And I really hope for people out there, look, it's changed the way you think about Tesla, but it's also given you deep frameworks, deep underlying models that help you understand the exponential age and what it is at heart, what its nature is at heart.

1:09:56René, I just want to thank you so much for joining us. There is absolutely no doubt that, you know, we need to get you back. You've got deep thoughts and frameworks as well on a whole range of other stuff, synthetic biology, subjects that are, you know, deep for the exponential age, but we didn't have time to get into today. Thanks so much for this conversation. And just quickly remind people where they can find your work. Yeah, thank you so much, David. It was great to be here as well. You can find my newsletter at fallacyalarm.com. Perfect, fallacyalarm.com. Check it out. René, thank you. It was a pleasure.

1:10:35Thank you. When change comes, opportunity abounds. We're about to enter a period of the fastest pace of technological change in all human history. something we refer to as the exponential age and real vision is going to be your guide to this incredible future what's up revolutionaries thanks for tuning in for more content like this head over to realvision.com and get unfiltered access to the very best brightest and biggest names in finance