AI Agents Are Coming For Your Job (Fast!) ft. Jordi Visser

27:54If they're having a hard time getting a job, if they're having a hard time envisioning how that job turns into a growth plan, that they're not going to at some point be disrupted. It's more of a psychological labor kind of problem. And I think that's what's starting to happen at a very fast pace. Now, the good side is for people like you and me who are entrepreneurs, who are not scared of anything, and we just move to the left and go, oh, AI is great. I can build a business. I can build an app. I can do what I want. I think there's not a lot of people. That's not everyone. And so when Peter Thiel talks about a hollowing out of the middle class, it is happening.

28:32And so I think we're in that stage, the worst stage where the companies, the shareholder side of the United States in particular, realizes that they can get more profit margins by not hiring people and reducing headcount as they integrate AI agents and everything going on. I think five years from now, everything will look much better. But I think we're in that part where it's moving too fast and companies are going to do it. So I think the economy is going to grow, but I think the labor market's going to be soft and it's going to bring a lot of problems into the cities. My view on that is I think that this current part, as you're talking about, the loss of jobs equates to the decline in the workforce anyway, because of the aging population.

29:19So the workforce shrinks and that gets accommodated by the AI as a new workforce. And so the job market feels weird, as you kind of suggest. People can't get jobs as graduates. There's people losing jobs that wouldn't. So there's a bit of moving around, but it ends up being more sluggish. But generally, I think it's offset by the shrinking of the labor force participation rate that's a natural function of the aging population. But soon after that, becomes a real problem then there's a there's a chance that the labor force participation rate collapses because of ai yeah see i'm i'm a little little more negative than you um i obviously we're both on the same page i mean right now there's a shrinking of the labor force by about 300 000 people a year in the u.s naturally um we've shut the borders so immigration won't be there to fill in and ICE is going through and scaring people.

30:17So, you know, let's assume maybe 600 ,000 people a year is the shortage. So far this year in the five months of data that we now have, outside of January, and the reason I say outside of January, just pick the month where we started to see no more jobs in government. So government jobs are zero. X healthcare and X leisure and travel, which to me are government subsidized through Medicare, Medicaid, and social security and baby boomers, you have 33 ,000 jobs a month so far. That's where we are right now on average for this. You know, you're going to get revisions, which are going to be downward, which will be more than that.

30:57So X healthcare and X travel and leisure, you're already talking baby boomer things, right? They're exactly demographics. And the government subsidizes them through Medicare, Medicaid. I mean, those revenues are going to grow. So this is where if you want a job and you're not going to school to be a nurse, think about how many people go to go to school to be in technology, to be in finance, to be in all these things. I just think it's going to get harder. And one thing people have not yet put into context, I do think the bankruptcies are going to start to accelerate too because of AI. I think AI accelerates that.

31:35And that's one of the reasons why I believe we're entering a period, and this is obvious based on the last, really month, but last week, rates are going lower in the US. Regardless of what happens, you're going to start to see pressure to move rates lower. I think it should happen. I think it's going to happen. But I think that is one of the offsets is that the people we're talking about that are disrupted, the house affordability, all, you're going to need rates to go lower. And I think they're going to move them lower. Yeah, I do too. I don't see a world in which they can't. And everyone's, It's now an open admission that this, that the debt financing is the entire focus of the government.

32:13And, you know, it's everybody's thing. It's all it is now is that. That whole everything code thing that I talked about a long time ago is now openly discussed. I mean, even Trump saying, oh, just fuck it. We'll just sell more bills until we can get rates down and then we can try and roll it out. I mean, this is the government, the US government basically saying we're just in a debt refi cycle. Yeah. And again, if you go through the stages of this this year, OK, we don't care about the stock market anymore. Main Street's been hurt. OK, well, that worked for a while until you realize that's not going to work.

32:46OK, we're going to put massive tariffs on the world. OK, that's not going to work. So you try to find some middle ground. And the reason I say things don't work, especially in the tariff situation, you start just like with Lehman Brothers, you start realizing the world is interconnected. And if you shut off and you attack China, then China says, well, good, we have rare earth. That means you're going to be at a military disadvantage. You're going to be at a technology disadvantage. You're not going to be in a position. You guys made this decision. So the only alternative to me is to continue the debasement and try to force nominal GDP above rates and make a bet that inflation is not going to pick up.

33:24So you and I have talked a lot. I think we differed to some degree on inflation for this year. You've been right so far. And now I've kind of jumped back into the part about how I think when the middle person in the country is having a hard time, and that's the way I view it, inflation is based, in my opinion, on the middle person. If demand isn't good enough, then you've just got a problem. problem. And I think we're seeing that not just in the U.S. German inflation's come out. It's back down to where it was in 2019. Like everything around the world seems to be more of a deflationary situation.

34:00And I don't think this is from AI yet. I just think this is from the distributional wealth problem and the fact that the money's run off and the only people that have money are the ones benefiting from asset prices. So it gets me back to when I visited your conference, the first crypto conference I went to and participated at. I got to meet a lot of people that are in that middle demographic and that went to school they have the debt they just can't grow their way out of it and they view a life of boredom um and they're looking for more excitement and that's why i continue to focus my attention not only on ai but the eventuality of of crypto and bitcoin which is starting to accelerate so the other side i think you and i've probably talked about this in the past as well is given that cohort of let's say 25 year olds to 40 year olds now that older the Gen Z and a core millennial cohort who are in this trap.

34:53They're deep in the middle of this trap. Not only is crypto offering them an opportunity, but we're seeing the rise of the speculative economy. And we're seeing it in prediction markets. We're seeing the rise of Robinhood. Robinhood's growth is extraordinary, what's going on, as people are realizing that speculation is somewhat warranted because they have no other way around it. but it also leads me into well the good thing that speculation is doing is testing all these things in crypto these new ideas they get tested like memes which is like capital formation instant capital formation there's a and also humans if we're not in a job we'll probably still speculate because it's fun i don't know there's a big rise of this speculative economy i think is a is a big mega trend that people don't really see.

35:44They're too cynical. All you have to do is go to the FRED database and look at the chart of gambling as personal consumption expenditures of gambling, which is now over$200 billion a year in the US. And it's a perfectly linear incline. And then you go and look at how much money is spent on new cars in the US, and that is on a decline. And the numbers right now for new cars, personal consumption expenditures, are below$250 billion. And I'm sure after the tariffs will be even lower, which means gambling is just taking over as a major, major part of the economy, which I think everyone knew because they can see it on TV.

36:22They realize there's, you know, fan duels everywhere. But I don't think people have gotten to the point of why. And I do think it is a very major thing for younger people because of the boredom. It's a form of education. They view experiences completely different than we did. And at least they have a chance of getting money where if they spend money on an expensive dinner, it's just lost. And so I do think crypto falls into that. I do think needing real time information, real time pricing, doing things when you want. It all fits in with a faster world and settlements of money, everything. So I do think it's a representation that the world is getting faster and that matches AI.

37:00But I also think it gets into the boredom and the anger that people are having towards not being able to enjoy their lives the way they would want. And when you look at the crypto landscape in terms of the adoption now of what we're seeing, all of these corporate treasuries, what does it mean to you? So I think this part, this year and really the last, I want to say 18 months, has been about accepting a gradual acceptance of Bitcoin as something which will be here five to 10 years from now. Because remember when we first met, you were still struggling to explain to traditional hedge fund people and finance people that this was meaningful.

37:44And they thought Geordi was a nutcase. And now suddenly everything's changed, right? Everything's changed. I mean, you are a nutcase, but that's separate. Yeah, that's completely separate. Bitcoin's being accepted more and more every day. What is not being accepted at this point, and actually this is a good place for us to talk a little bit about it. because I've said this on my YouTube videos. This feels a lot in the all-coin world like the post.com bubble to me. It feels like there's a lot of people that got involved. So think of the internet from 95 to say 2000. A lot of people joined into it.

38:24They left banks, they got involved and they were hoping to make tons of money. It was a free thing. Everyone got involved. And then you had this big fall and it took a while to come. It took a while for the NASDAQ to get out of the problem. And one of the reasons it took a while to get out, just like it was in Japan with all of the banks owning shares, you know, everything about this overhang of people that had gone into something, every time anything goes higher, there seems to be a wall of supply that stops it from the crypto community. Now we've got circle enthusiasm. So we've got people focused a little bit.

39:00You got Coinbase back up to the highs. So I'd say the traditional finance world is getting a little bit more excited. Now you've connected in the last week, you've connected, oh, CoreWeave and CoreScientific. So now we're getting some of the Bitcoin miners back involved. All of a sudden, the traditional finance world is starting to see things. I have said publicly, and I will continue to see it until Ethereum breaks out because of the network effects on stable coins, which I think is there until Ethereum breaks out, just another OG of one of this and people start getting on board. I don't think we're going to have the kickoff to what I believe will be the end of the dot-com bubble overhang and I think that's what we have in crypto from the 21-22 period a lot of overhang it seems like there's a lot of supply and once we work through it I still believe there's going to be a short squeeze in the entire space this year yeah I think you're right and the ETH breaking new highs is probably also Solana breaking the all-time highs because it hasn't broken where it was and that is a mass wealth generation event you know there's a lot of people involved in this there's a lot of fortunes to be made and that creates a whole new cycle of reinvestment and opportunity opportunity risk taking and stuff like that yeah i totally agree and uh it feels like it's coming when that is i mean most of my work suggests that you know this year should continue and and maybe even the first two quarters of next year continues here's a question i want to I'll ask you, one of the things that we have done the work on is that, and this won't surprise you, the main driver of alt season, as you call it for the smaller stocks, is actually the business cycle.

40:36And the business cycle is the same driver as small caps versus big caps. It's EM versus that. It's junk versus, you know, it's always the same trade because once the business cycle picks up, people have earnings. They go further out the risk curve. it gets reinvested what why has the ism remained so low i mean this is you and i've looked at this forever for our whole careers this is the longest period below or at 50 in the history of the ism what what is all this about so i remember julian and i sat next to each other at dinner for the event and and you've heard me say this in fact i remember i when i saw i know there's no business cycles i get that correct so here's the part that i'll say though um it is the problem that in a world where artificial intelligence is coming there should never be a time that the ism takes off it just shouldn't happen in my opinion now i'm going to change that a little bit because i do think we're getting closer and closer to something which is related to the business cycle of AI, because at the end of the day, if I equate all cycles to power, meaning you have to be building something, and oil has always been, it's that macro piece that offsets and is out of control of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

42:03You need power. That is the thing that needs to fuel it. And AI consumes an enormous amount of power. And we are going to start to see, well, it's ironic I say this to someone in Spain, but we're going to start to see important blackouts and there's going to be more of them in the US. And I think they're coming very, very soon because I don't think people have looked at the exponential move. And this fits into the alt season side to me. So I believe we are going to see a change in the business cycle. I just don't think they exist in the push button way that they did, where you do something in the economy and it goes.

42:38But I do think it's coming this year because of what's going to be needed for the infrastructure build out on data centers, on power. These are massive numbers. Nuclear. This is going to be a change. I just think it's going to be financed by the government. And also, to your point earlier, the middle American, the median person, has had their mortgages up here, their car payments up here, their credit card payments here. They're still like this. Yeah. Right. the stock market goes up, a bunch of rich people get richer, and sure, their pension plans might be going up, but that doesn't make a difference to their pocketbook.

43:12And the moment they start cutting rates, allowing rates to fall, people can refine their mortgages, and the money will flow. Yeah, I think what Trump is saying to everyone is the bet he wants to make is to move rates as close to zero as possible. And whether that's 2%, 1%, it doesn't really matter. I think the rate cuts that we did before were a normalization rate cut. So we overshot and then we moved them to a level where you can make the argument that, okay, now we're normal. The next rate cuts to me will be the actual rate cuts that we were expecting. That'll be the trigger for the business cycle.

43:50And it'll come at a time where I really do believe we are underestimating just how much build out is going to have to happen to deal with all this compute, the humanoids that are coming behind it, the full self-driving vehicles, the AI native phones, the battery needs. I mean, I've tried to explain to people in my writings with how much hardware is needed for the embodiment side. And I think you're seeing that in the semiconductors. I think semiconductors are the oil of this generation and they're breaking higher and they're broadening out. It's not just NVIDIA anymore. It's the analog names. And I think that's in preparation.

44:27So I would be using, and I have in the past, and I'm sure you have too, if you haven't seen this so far, the SOX relative to the NDX, it's having its best quarter in the last 25 years. And I think that's a kickoff phase because I think for a true business cycle scenario that you're talking about, semiconductors should outperform software. And that's what's necessary. And I think that's what started. at first, like many of us, trying to get our heads around what was happening with the amount of CapEx expenditure by OpenAI, Meta, and Google, and Microsoft. It was like, okay, this is going to be a CapEx cycle.

45:05They'll have overordered, and then we'll have the downside. And then I was in Abu Dhabi, and I realized, oh, all the state players are involved too. I'm like, there is no end to demand in semiconductors. There is no end to demand. And then Elon's like, we need a trillion things. And then somebody else says, we need a quadrillion data set. It's like, okay, this is, you know, we've just seen Facebook saying, I was going to do a debt offering for like$23 billion to build more stuff. And it's not going to stop because the technology is exponential. And people, I know many people will be watching this, rolling their eyes saying you this is like 1999 or whatever again it's not you know it's this one is actually one of the the simplest things i've ever seen where you have two groups right now the two largest groups on the planet governments and the hyperscalers like it's it's difficult to say to people you realize the hyperscalers are massive in the s &p 500 they're 30%.

46:09Seven names make up 30%. But they also make up close to 60 % of the earnings growth. Their revenues are growing at 10 plus percent, while nominal GDP is four and a half. And the S &P X those seven, their revenues are growing at 4%. You and I grew up in a world where if nominal GDP was five, you'd take a multiple of one and a half of that. And that would be the revenue for the S &P 500. Well, now X the hyperscalers, you're below nominal GDP. And the reason is because the S &P 493 are old companies. They're old businesses that are barely competing for the most part with them. This spending is a race for AGI.

46:51It's a race for ASI. They believe if they don't win, they're out of business. Mark Zuckerberg is paying$100 million for OpenAI employees, and he's now hired apparently eight of them have signed on for that bonus. That's confirmation that they are in a race because you will face obsolescence if you don't get there. Whether or not that's true, they believe it. And then on the government side, you have the U.S. and China believing that whoever gets this controls the world. So this can't stop. There's no way it can stop. The only thing that can stop it is the friction from power. That is it. That is the only thing I can see is that we won't have the power infrastructure to be able to do it.

47:28yeah i i say it the same way the other interesting thing i always look for signal is in stuff that elon says and one thing he's just planting a million flags that people don't pick up is you know the world is so fossil fuel focused you know that is the way and you know fossil fuel yes is recycled sunlight um stored underground but yep there's a bunch of people obsessed by the Kardashev scale, which is the type one civilization. Basically, we've got a million times more energy than we need from the sun alone. And Elon's point is 99.99 % of all of our energy will come from the sun and everything else will be a rounding error.

48:12And that solves everything because he's obviously thinking ahead, which is like, how do we solve the problems that you said? The massive amount of energy used by the robots and the computers and the data centers and the everything else that needs to happen and he's like well just look at the sky and the bigger biggest thermonuclear reactor in our solar system is there we just need to use that does that fit into your framework it does the problem is and this is so and i don't know if you've done this but as you listen to Elon and you listen to Eric Schmidt, you listen to Mo Godwatt and all the people associated with Peter Diamandis.

48:50As you're doing that, almost keep a timeline of the next 25 years, because a lot of the things they're talking about, we'll start seeing the benefits. Unlike solar, it's going to take a lot longer. Fusion, all this, we need infrastructure and the ability of building the infrastructure, it takes time. It's just not that simple to go. The solution and the cost will get there and we'll come up with the problems because AGI will speed up us solving these things and finding better ways to do it. But the actual physical part, we're running into a problem with the physical part. So in the next five years, we know we're going to have massive advancements.

49:30Human beings are not prepared for this in any way, shape or form. If they're scared right now of their jobs, what are they going to do when there's humanoids walking down the street? And it's not like a gimmick, but it's actually happening. When Waymo's run into New York, do you really think they're not going to be set on fire? Do you really think? We saw protests around Uber. So I think the problem is for the next 25 years, this is this kind of really bad place where I think the job situation is going to be impacted because of capitalism. Capitalism is towards shareholder wealth. You're going to see bankruptcies from companies that can't compete, who are losing their business quickly.

50:10That's why rates have to go down. And on the flip side, you're going to see the bigger companies just stop hiring across sectors. It's not going to be one off. You'll have a rise in entrepreneurs, but that kind of disconnect between the next 25 years of people figuring out how to survive. I think the solar thing is a really optimistic thing. Same thing like living forever and all of these different pieces. But I think we're in this five to 10 year gap where everything I see, I think it tilts more towards people adjusting than people benefiting. And that's the part that I see. Although, yeah, although, you know, I follow the Chinese solar adoption and it's vertical.

50:47It is one of the fastest exponential trends I've seen is that they've kind of figured out that this is the only way forward with the command economy. You say it and therefore it is so. we haven't managed to do that yet. No, and I mean, Elon's been posting on X over the last 24 hours about what was taken out of the big, beautiful bill. And he's it's not just the EV side. It is the solar. It's the wind. It's everything that goes into it because we need clean energy. And he's basically saying, so we're going to stay with fossil fuels now because the government can't get away from what it needs to do.

51:25So I wrote a piece on Chevron and Exxon as bullish AI trades, not because they are doing anything or building nuclear or solar wind. It's because gas fired plants are the only option I can see in the US at this point to fill in the gap for the power needs we have for the next five years. And that's where I think there's been, there's just this next five years to me worries me, except for one thing, we will spend the money. We will absolutely debase. We will do everything we need to do to compete, to make sure AI is going. I just think people are going to have a hard time adjusting to what's about to happen.

52:00That's my own personal view. Another thing that's triggered in my mind from talking is there seems to be a change in where VC money is going now. And the battle is hardware versus software. And hardware, as you said, the next part needs a lot of hardware. And that seems to be getting the investment. and software is pretty much sold because ai will do anything soon so in which case what do you need software for you don't need anything you don't need to design an excel spreadsheet you don't need to design the next thing because it will do it for you and you don't even need a product so it feels like the next battle is hardware space being one of them and stuff like that so this gets back into the business cycle thing um one of my favorite uh companies to view monthly is Stripe.

52:51I think Stripe owns the ecosystem of information for the startup world now, much more so than the VC world because they're tracking everything and they have all these companies on their platform. And just them talking, I think during the Stripe sessions, which was in May, they highlighted that Cursor had 300 million in ARR, which I now believe is 500 million in ARR. The other problem with software companies is that they're able to scale without needing capital. They're able to scale very, very quickly. And so you don't actually get the chance to invest in them and they don't need the capital and they don't want to give up ownership.

53:29The physical world still takes capital to build things. So hardware still needs investment. It still needs the dollars. So this gets back into the rise of software. I really do believe the software world, anything built on code, code is now ubiquitous, as you said. And so any company is now they're going to they're going to have competition. And that goes for Google. That goes for all of these companies. If they don't find a way to to keep their business lines alive, we've obviously seen it with Google search. It's not that they're going to go out of business. It's not that they're going to go.

54:01But I think the days of their revenue of their their earnings growing rapidly are over. I think that if it wasn't for the changes put into the big, beautiful bill in allowing depreciation of their investment to be at a certain level that allows them to kind of hope in the future they get the revenues into offset, delaying this expenses. I just, again, I think the hardware side is a much better place for people to be. And I think the VC world sees it as a safer investment as well. um final question for you another one of your themes that i like to move along uh mentally from time to time is the ozempic glp1 idea that you had and where where's your head with all of that now because that was always an interesting thesis in fact you wrote it up for gmi a couple years ago as well i did i did um it's in an interesting place because of obviously um trump taking over uh you have a lot of fear throughout the biotech world as to what they're going to allow and what the rules are going to be.

55:00The good side is, and I guess this isn't good for things like McDonald's and things like Coca-Cola. I think what Ozempic, in kind of my mindset, we know that there's going to be solutions to all the diseases that have gone on. We know that. We've learned more about - You see there's a version now that's coming to trial, there's been trials, which doesn't give you any muscle loss either. Yeah. And that's the part they've learned. They're learning on what they can do for the offsets. You collect the data. It'll get better and better. And we obviously need this because of the diabetes problem that's across the planet.

55:37But it coincides. Diabetes to me is a form of aging. It's a form of us realizing aging is a disease. And we're making a lot more ground on that, too. Interesting work on cellular level details, epigenomics in terms of reverse aging. I just think there's a lot happening. This was necessary, again, as a bridge to AI. So I still think the GLP ones at this point, they'll get easier to take, obviously with pills. They'll get easier in terms of the side effects to go through it as we can do more predictive analytics and we can match up which one is a better version for particular DNA. That'll be there.

56:16But these are just bridge drugs to me. So if I had to guess, again, for the next three to four years, everything is fine. But as it is with all companies, at some point when you get past the five-year mark, and this is a tape we haven't talked about, I'm really, really negative on long-duration assets. I think it is a very, very difficult world to forecast what anything is going to look like five years from now. And I think long duration assets have historically needed to save things based on where the value will be five years from now. And I just think it's very, very difficult for all of those assets to sustain any kind of bid.

56:54And I think that's hurt the alt season as well. I think the VC world having trouble, the private equity world having trouble, commercial real estate, all of these long duration assets have really had a hard time. And I think GLP ones, they're starting to fit into the long duration asset side. But I think any kind of sell off in these things, there's still going to be tremendous demand over the next three to five years. I think where I got to with the long duration asset, my mental framework in my head is we have some sort of business cycle. But again, I agree with your view, which is there is no recessions again unless it's an external factor and then only brief.

57:33and in my head is okay we have a cycle whatever down cycle in 26 and into a bit of 27 whatever and then I think we go a full spectacular bubble because it feels like it's the last hurrah because beyond that none of us can see anything none of us I mean I keep saying it's like 2030 is like a that's it there's a curtain I can't see behind it in our macro lives we've always been able to see behind the curtain that's been our job and you get to this you're like i've got a fucking clue i just don't want to be caught up in it just try and make as much money as possible and and try and observe the world drinking pina coladas on the beach because this is i mean what is investing we've talked about this yeah what is investing when you've got agi what is being a doctor what is being a lawyer what what is anything and so in which case you just want to be sipping a cocktail watching the world and see what develops yeah it's funny so So we've had someone said this to me on a recent call.

58:29I was talking about things and they said, so this isn't helicopter money. This is helicopter intelligence. And I went, yeah, we're dropping intelligence around the globe. And for anyone to think that their business is safe, their job is safe, anything is safe when the cost of intelligence has just gone to whoever is using AI today has a huge advantage over people that are not. I don't know if you found this out. Because I remember when we did an interview and I remember I had said to you something about AI and you asked me a question about how much I was using it, how I was using it for papers, how it was going on.

59:05And that was not too long after ChatGPT. No, that was other days, yeah. You and I have really integrated this into our lives in a major way. But the majority of the people that I know in life have not. They barely use it. I can't go an hour without having done something with it. even when I'm driving in a car, I'm having a conversation because now the conversations, there's no breaking that you can keep going forever and ever. It can be a book, a theme. I've tried to explain to people that any topic you've ever wanted to have a conversation with, think of it as you're having a conversation with Albert Einstein and asking him questions about why he decided to do this, what went on.

59:44You can interview people the way you want until you use it until you go through it. I just don't think people have an idea of how much the world is going to change. And by them not using it, they're going to be in trouble. I will say, Raul, and this is, so I believe in creative destruction. I believe in the Joseph Schumpeter thing, but I did a video a week and a half ago and it got a lot of people, I would say, reaching out to me saying, do you really believe that? So at some point, capitalism is cannibalized by capitalism. And that's where we are. And so as much as I even want to believe that we're going to have a boom, I just think for the transition of money from the fiat system into the crypto world, my end game was very simple.

1:00:32We have to get to a point where capitalism is cannibalizing capitalism. And I believe we're at that point. And I hate to say this, but I really do think Like the we've seen this across the globe. This is not the first city, but the New York election and the demographics and the voting and the student debt and the inability of getting housing and the worrying about your jobs. These are not going away. They're just there's no way that the 25 to 40 year old is going to be in a position where all of a sudden all of those worries go away because to some degree they're related to work and the identity human beings have.

1:01:08You go to school, you graduate with a degree, you made this huge bet on the future. And then all of a sudden it's over. And the mind, the analogy I've used is we went from having a Lego box where you just got a bunch of stuff and you had to create something. And then you started giving kids Lego boxes with instructions. Well, that is the school system. And that is what the 25 to 40 year olds were trained on. You do the right thing. You take out debt, you get an education, you're going to get it. So I don't want it to be cynical, but I think capitalism is under attack right now from the cohort that matters the most.

1:01:42And then the people that have the most money don't seem to fully grasp it. And so socialism is going to have a rise, in my opinion, in the cities in the US. And I think it is going to be a very, very nasty kind of bull market phase, but very good for crypto. So, and AI will just continue the profit margin surge, which will keep stocks higher. But I don't think we're going to get into a speculative phase anytime soon. Yeah, I still do because of debasement and what that drives. But in the end, where I get to in all of this is somewhere down the line, the marginal cost of electricity will go to zero.

1:02:20And therefore, you have infinite abundance of intelligence plus humanoids. And so what is money at that point? Well, now you're getting into the point. If I told you, and I'm not predicting this, although in the back of my mind, I've decided, I don't know if you've ever done this, I've decided not to predict publicly where I think Bitcoin is going to go. But I do think the second half of this year will be a explosive up move. And I say explosive because I believe the most important thing that happened the first half of the year was what Sundar Pichai said on the Lex Fridman podcast and also at the Google IO developer.

1:03:06When he said that from a year ago, we were up 50 times in token usage. Okay. Now, if you ask a hundred people on Wall Street, what's a token with inside AI, 99 of them won't know what it is unless you go specifically to the tech world. When I hear tokens, I think AI adoption, I think inference, I think reasoning, I think AI agents are just starting. AI agents to me are the most powerful force for productivity and job losses in terms of the going through, but it is massively powerful for Stripe. They should see exponential growth in stablecoin transactions. and you're seeing this, like the stable coin adoption is happening at the same time.

1:03:50I just don't think people yet know on the, on the wealthy side, know how to translate tokens to stable coins, to Bitcoin, to Ethereum, to the power needed to fund all of that. But I think that's what we're going to learn. And I think that is an anti-fiat situation. I think it's fine. They'll go up together. But if Bitcoin were to go to say 500 ,000 by the end of this year, not predicting, I'm just saying if it did, because of a short squeeze, which I think is going to happen at some point from all the people realizing that it is a finite asset and there are people that need to borrow on it because they got in trouble from 21, 22, and they're borrowing future production and blah, blah, blah.

1:04:28I've seen, I've now gone through this. If we get a spike, well, that'll put it at$10 trillion in terms of Bitcoin. You'll have the entire ecosystem go up. I don't think the fiat system will see that type of growth in terms of this. And once that's moving at that speed, I think everyone from the investor world is going to start looking at how to participate at a time that wallets are easier to open and we're starting to see more and more. So I just have this belief that instead of this being a boom, I view this as a disruptive shift in money that has to happen at a time, not when the fiat system is doing well, but when the crypto thing is doing so well.

1:05:04And it's not based on speculation. It's based on the transfer of money. yeah and i've always said it was a parallel financial system that got built and we're now migrating across and what we're about to do is migrate the cash system onto stable coins i mean it's staggering but it's coming and when you've got the government talking about deficit financing and everyone kind of knows that it's debasement it'll only accelerate the adoption curve because it is the only way out it's this capitalism eating capitalism well here's the newest form and it's going to happen and nothing will stop it. And that's why I think we are.

1:05:38I think all the turning points right now are that capitalism is eating capitalism. And rather than it be a bearish argument for assets, it's not, but I think the pie of assets, the shift should be happening to a different system. And I think that's a very different argument and I think it'll bring wealthy people in because then FOMO will set in, greed will fit in and it'll be more towards the crypto world. And that's why I think Circle's important. I think CoreWeave's IPO is important. I think Core Scientific. you're seeing it in the traditional finance side and when i hear people say well i think bitcoin's not going up because people are moving in a circle and i'm like i don't know what you guys are talking about but that's not the way it works i just think the ethereum side and the power side the whole energy all of the transactions i thought the interconnectedness of everything that's what people don't yet see and what you're talking about is it's all parts of the same thing it's this new digital world that we're moving into that is entirely new and it has its own system of money it has its own system of truth it has its own ledger system it has its own everything and it has its own intelligence and it has its own physicality i mean that's what we're moving into it's a whole new world yep and transactions and volumes are going to spike and ai was the bridge to this and this is why when i set up when i decided not to stay in the hedge fund world it was let me try to talk about the traditional finance world through AI bridging to the new digital world.

1:07:03And it's an accelerant in this whole thing. And the AI agents is the most important thing because it gets to inference and reasoning, which then feeds into humanoids and everything else. You can't have humanoids. You can't have full self-driving, true full self-driving. You can't have all the other things without first getting digital employees, which is where the agent world is. And they need to transact with each other. And that's the phase that we're just, we know we're accelerating at right now so because right now energy isn't free and you have to pay the agent for the energy use you know it all comes around it all fits together perfectly as as ever geordie fabulous conversation and i look forward to catching up the next time we do this as well because things are moving so fast we both talked about exponentials but for all of us this is happening at such a speed that you can barely keep up because i think when we were talking in the beginning we're like well imagine when you can put graphs in and it can read a graph that happened in like like six months after we you know it's like holy shit you know and then you know it's got perfect voice and next it'll be video and you'll be speaking to me this is all coming at such a speed that's hard to get our heads around but what a time to be alive it's a great time to be alive and just for people that that want to do something for their kids just get them to use it.

1:08:21And I think Raul's point is the same one I did, which is the voice. But with inside the voice, I also said one more thing. If you haven't built an app in Cursor, just the paper I'm writing right now is based on Peter Diamandis XPRIZE that he created a long time ago, which was meant for people to create and finish a project and to give them a million dollars. Well, I think with your kids, if they go build something in Cursor, which they can just do with natural language, I think it will not only give them pride and joy, it will also set them up for using AI more and more, not just to use it as a chat bot, but to actually use it to build things.

1:09:00And I think that's the most important thing for the kids out there. Amazing. All right, Geordi, good to see you next time. You as well, Raul. Thanks. As ever, a brilliant conversation with Geordi. I love the way that we just kind of shoot the shit with each other and catch up on each other's views, stress tests our ideas. Look, when you're talking about the future of technology, how it impacts society, how it impacts economics, that's not something that anybody actually knows the answer to. So open conversations and free-flowing ideas are what make everything. This is how we build a framework.

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