AI is Coming for Your Job – And Your Money ft. Jordi Visser from Visser Labs

27:21And the returns keep going down but what we're seeing what's so laughable now is people are still investing in hedge funds to get eight percent returns ten percent twelve percent in a great year yeah and yet just buy and holding crypto has been producing a hundred hundred and fifty percent returns with downside and you see after a while everybody has that light bulb moment it's like why the fuck am I doing this other stuff yeah well a I wish I had come to that realization the time that you did um it was a much better trade for you than me sticking in the hedge fund and and going through the pain that was associated with so I give you full credit for that it was hard it's miserable it used to be a beautiful game and then it became a miserable game yeah it it it it has been fighting it's been a knife fight every single day and it was funny you remember in in the late 90s, in the early 2000s, you were a Goldman and I was a woman.

28:19We still had those partners that had been at the firm for a long time. And they talked about the 70s and they were like, wow, the 70s was a knife fight every day and went through it. And I'm like, we've been competing against computers since, you know, really 2002, 2003, but it got really bad once WorldQuant was officially getting more involved in the market. And now you had the Yeshua, you have WorldQuant, you had Renaissance, you had the high frequency guys. There was just a negative edge that was being taken out. So it literally became like being in Vegas. You were playing with odds that were against you.

28:48And it wasn't a question of whether you could have a 12 % year. It was a question of whether you could produce 12 % a year returns for five years. And the probability of that has gone down dramatically. And I think the same thing has now happened to commercial real estate. I think the same thing has happened to venture capital. I think the same thing is happening in private equity. And so if that's the case, then more and more institutions are looking for something where they can generate the returns that at least allow them to provide the alpha. And that's why when I listened to Michael Saylor in 2020, I just, I found it to be what he said, elegant.

29:20I just watched a recent, um, four minute, uh, of him and Apple. No, no, no, no. He was interviewed by Scott Galloway and I was on Twitter and someone said, if you're ever going to question whether Michael Saylor is smart or not, just listen to this thing. He did this in December and everyone should understand why he did what he did at micro strategy and hear his evolution of it in a four minute clip because he gets viewed as this bombastic person. And I just think what he's doing is exactly getting ahead of the curve the same way you did when you left to do GMI. It's just a better business model to do this.

29:57So now we're both connected where I'm following in your footsteps, but I'm heavily involved in crypto and AI in a very, very big way. And AI allows me to be very efficient in my job. And it allows me to do things that I never thought were possible that I've always enjoyed to do. So by using it every day, I have a view of how I can use it and also enjoy my life. And crypto and AI give me both of those. I'll come back to Crypto in a sec. I want you to explain to people about deep research, Grok3. These are new things and they're both pretty spectacular. But deep research is, I mean, it's mind-blowing.

30:39Raul, for people listening, so deep research is now available in some form from, Gemini was the first place where I used it, and then perplexity. And you have it on OpenAI, and if you see these things, they've paid$200 a month. I was very reluctant to pay the$200 a month, but I had talked to people about it. So I'm a person that always loves to get the entire story behind something as a macro person. So what I told you about GDP and the measurements, if I go into deep research and I say, hey, I want a 60-page report. I'm going to do this first just without a prompt that is, you know, like a whole page long.

31:21And I'll tell people as an example how they can do it. But if you go in there and say, I want to learn the history of GDP, why the digital economy as it grows starts to disrupt GDP as a measurement. What are the reasons why it's not a useful statistic today? Please give me details behind credible people in the 1990s and 2000s, both on the economic side and the technology side, who have an understanding of this. And I want and it comes back with on that a 20 to 30 page report. If I extend the prompt and I have a template for a prompt that I copied from Twitter that a guy said, all you got to do now is go into this reasoning model, type this in.

32:00It'll give you the prompt. You type that into deep research and it'll give you whatever you want. Now, when I say that, I mean everything that I would want. I've been reading McKinsey reports for 15 years. They're free on the Internet. I find them to be the best thing about where AI is going. These are 150-page reports. This thing is better. McKinsey, and it does the exact same thing. So now, as opposed to having to wait for when McKinsey is going to come out with a report that I'm interested in, I just do it myself. One of the places I think we've differed over the last six months, I'm a big believer that this is going to be an inflation year.

32:39Not a big inflation year, but it's going to be a stagflation year, and I think we're starting to feel the effects of that now. And the reason is because of the power needs for AI that are happening too fast. We do not have enough power on the globe right now. We're going to solve that problem. But every now and then, we're going to have a little increase in inflation. You're seeing it with agricultural prices. I think you're going to see it with energy. So if I want to go see what kind of power needs, I start with something like Colossus, the data center that Elon Musk built. And I say, how much power was needed for that?

33:10If we're going to do all the build out that's now been promised by the hyperscalers, how much power are we going to need and i get a sense as to where it is so that's the way i now do my research i don't look for goldman sachs i don't look for any of that i get my research from ai and it's better and it's real time yes but you're blessed with a long history of trying to figure out the jigsaw puzzle so you know what to ask right it's actually quite hard to you know not it's not an average thing to do is say listen i'm concerned that normal gdp does not include technology and And Anna Grease said this, you know, that's not a normal question to ask.

33:48So that's the hard thing. But again, my guess is if you prompt the AI right, you can ask it to ask the right questions. But there's still a lot of skill in that, right? Well, and this is the part, like, here's an example. There's a reason why you invited me to come speak at your conference. There's a reason why you've invited me at times to come on here and speak. So hopefully, I know it's not my look. So there's got to be something else involved. And I'm pretty sure it has to do with my brain's not normal, meaning I think of things and I'm constantly thinking of connections that could be there or not be there.

34:25And that is why it's a better idea. It was good for me to make money from my life at Morgan Stanley. It got me to rise up the ranks very, very quickly from the bottom to opening an office in my 20s. It got me the chance to be at a hedge fund and make money there. And I think it allowed me to figure out how the intersection of AI and crypto is so important. But that's because I'm constantly connecting dots and I never believe what I read. So I do agree with you that for people that are listening, you have to ask the right questions. But the way that I do that is I spend 20 hours a week plus. And I know this now because I track it on an app that I had Grok 3 build me with inside Replet, which is I always wanted to keep track of the time and the resources I have because people ask me, what podcast do you listen to?

35:15And I never know because I'm not – I'm thematic. I'm not listening to one podcast all the time. But I do 20 hours a week of podcasts slash YouTubes because that's the real-time information. I'm on Twitter one hour a day. That's real-time information. Everything in AI is moving so fast that if you try to wait for a book or you read it in a paper or you go ask someone about it, you can't keep up. It changes too rapidly. And deep research didn't exist three months ago. And again, this goes back to a conversation you and I have had many times is we are not able to deal with exponentials. And now we are seeing AI.

35:52It's very clear now that within these big AI companies, they're using AI to build AI. the synthetic data is is ai training ai right that is a hyper loop that accelerates faster because now they're finding out for an equal amount of compute and energy they can actually extract more from a model which was not expected so that's the big breakthrough of the last five months or so is actually we don't need to increase either those two inputs but if you do it's going to go even faster yeah so there's a couple things and and i know people probably you know don't know enough about ai to kind of they still hear the thing there's hallucinations and all stuff so i i think it's really important to to separate one thing when when deep seek came out and i'll play a game with people that i've tried to give some explanation to make it easier because if you listen to a tech person describe the difference between an llm and a reasoning model, it's very difficult.

36:53So for an LLM, the original chat GPT, Elon Musk has said, and they will agree with it, because we're in synthetic data now. And the reason we're in synthetic data is because they have consumed all pieces of human knowledge that has been written or done in video. Every single thing has now been consumed by AI. That is publicly available. We've still got a bunch of stuff that's private, but yes, everything. So everything that's public. So when you're looking for hallucinations, yes. Is there a probability that some piece on the internet has a mistake or the news or whatever it's biased? Yes. You will get something that is either wrong or whatever.

37:32But with reasoning, you slow things down and the model thinks about it and does checks and goes through it. And that is the difference. Now, this is why when DeepSea came out and everyone shorted the stock and they were like, well, this is the end of it. And I went, did people realize how much inference memory is needed and how much it goes on so the game i play is how much is two times two well people know it's four but that's from pure memory that's an llm if i say what's 38 times 27 well if you're pretty good at math you can probably work through it in your head but it's going to take you 10 times to 20 times to 100 times what it took for two that's the difference between them so when you go through a reasoning model it's now reasoning as to what would be the right way to attack this problem?

38:16What would be the right way to solve it? Where should I look? How should I compare it? And that's where we are. We've gone from LLMs in memory to reasoning. And that's why we're getting closer and closer to AGI, or at least that's why you start hearing more and more people say it. And that's why when Elon Musk goes, the next 10 years will be like the prior 100 years of innovation. To your point, it's just moving too fast. And that's why I think the message I will say to people, if you think your job is all of a sudden going to get better. If you think your upward mobility with inside the company is all of a sudden going to get better, particularly people below the age of 30, AI is coming to disrupt that entire thing because businesses don't need to have as many people.

38:55And that just means the hope and the aspirations start to go down. And then more and more people are driven to crypto for people that are educated and wealthy. But in particular, the entrepreneurial side from democratization of AI is happening right now. Sachin Nadella said something very interesting on that Dwarkesh podcast. I don't know if you've seen that yet, but super interesting, which was, you know, forget about his idea that we don't need to, he can rent, compute now as opposed to keep building, whatever. But he said something interesting about AGI. He goes, it doesn't matter. Comes to me when we've moved GDP by 10%.

39:30And, you know, I think that's the key point that you and I think is coming when this all, the economic system starts falling apart in ways. I mean, the study of economics is not going to work. No, it won't. So this is why the inflation thing is so important, because if inflation stays at 3%, 4%, the problem is nominal GDP is not going to be helped by AI. And let me go through this and make sure. So this is the point about what Greenspan said, and it's what I keep saying, you have to think of do more with less. So if a company, and let's assume that GDP, nominal GDP, because it's revenues basically of everything.

40:19So think of it as a revenue number. If you're running a company and you have right now a billion dollars of revenue, and next year you have a billion dollars of revenue, that doesn't mean you can't grow. If you can cut your expenses down dramatically, you just grew your earnings. So the problem is, and this is why I've kind of alluded to you, and I think Julian and I talked about this, I actually think AI will hurt liquidity, meaning the traditional liquidity measurement, because doing more with less gets into two components. I think the nominal GDP and the inflation data is just wrong. We know they can't calculate inflation.

40:55It's just as hard to calculate inflation in a world where your iPhone has replaced so many different things because they didn't know how to do it. So I think GDP and inflation are just wrong. But people trade off those. They make decisions off those. But profit margins can continue to grow. So I've kind of come to the conclusion with AI that I really think we're at a point where it's do more. It's a welfare thing. It's a half like your lives are going to get better because you're going to live longer, healthier. You're going to get better because gas eventually will cause zero. And this gets into the abundance story.

41:31But in the lead up to abundance, it's probably painful. And then the question is, as people are having trouble with work, work has become, and it has been for a long time, and this is why I don't agree with Marc Andreessen, my last name is Visser. It stands for fisherman. My name was based on, my lineage is back to Friesland, Holland. My mother's from Friesland. Are you serious? It's amazing how many people I meet that are from Friesland, whose connection is to Friesland. It's a little tiny, little tiny place. So the Friesians are well, well documented across the globe. But here's the thing. My last name being Visser, we've used our names as our identity for a long time.

42:17And so we're talking about artificial intelligence hurting that. And I just don't think that makes people happy. So the next four or five years, even though I think it's going to be good, I just don't think we're going to see the productivity boom at the economic level, which is really more psychological. I think it's going to happen at the profit margin level. And I think unless you're an entrepreneur and you're able to do what we're doing, which is not work for a company where you can be happier and you can enjoy life and you can work and use AI, those people will be okay. But I think the people working in corporations are just going to have a really hard time because I think they're going to be taken advantage of.

42:52yeah i think i think that's right it's uh david mattin and i talk a lot about this is i think the next election is all going to be about the accelerationist versus the decelerationist it's the transhumanist versus the humanist that is the big battle that we're going to face over the next 20 years until it matters not anymore but that it will not be about anything we've had in the past everything we fought an election about by the time this administration gets to where it wants to get to it is going to be holy shit i want off this rocket ship or i just want to strap onto the rocket ship and that's it think about what you just said and about the psychological point we're going to reach so i've had people say to me um i i'm scared of the future because i don't know what work means and i'm worried about my kids then at the same point if I say, but you're going to live twice as long.

43:50Then they go, wait, I don't have enough money saved up to live twice as long. So everything becomes a fear on exponential innovation. There's no way you win. Hey, you don't have to work as many hours and you can make as much money. I haven't saved enough. I'm screwed. But you can live a healthier life and you don't have to deal with all the pain and stuff. I don't want to live longer. I want to live a normal life and I want to have my pension. And I would like, it's hard for people to adjust to it. So that's the reason why if I meet, you know, a teacher or a professor at your event or a doctor, and they tell me the same story, regardless of their profession, it's it, that to me is that Venn diagram of macro, you know, learning that says, why are you here?

44:32Why are you at this crypto event? And I think it will gather more people. And I think the more people that get involved in it, they're going to find an economy that's better suited for them with more enjoyment and a better community. so you know i stumble across a mimetic that i use that has really encapsulated this which is unfuck your future there is this pervasive feeling that your future is fucked whether it's from technology debasement of currency structural shifts in society aging populations all of these that is the thing and crypto has become here's our way out it's the life raft and and you can see from that real vision event if we had we gone back 10 years none of those people be even thinking about this stuff but they've been forced into it and i'm now noticing on the real vision platform more and more women coming into the space particularly women who have you know where they've got divorced they've taken control of their own finances or career women who've like i need to sort this shit out and before it was a very male thing crypto and now i'm just seeing more and more women coming and say oh i get it now this is actually my future and the way manifesting my future is going to be taking this risk in this asset class because it's the only way yeah um so i spoke on a panel with with three other people and uh there were actually three times this never happened to me at a conference but there were three times where i said something that people started to plot it okay and all of them this was at the real vision event this was the Real Vision event.

46:04Yes. Wow. And this was about, so one of them was about me setting up a strategic Bitcoin reserve for my kids. And I explained the reason why. And again, I said, you guys are not allowed to touch it. This is for you to have the hope and eventually to get involved in this because as it works, you're going to be more involved with it because you've benefited from it. And I was teaching them, this is the way you're going to feel like you have the opposite of worrying about a depression. This is going to feel the opposite of worrying about saving because this thing is going to compound fast for you.

46:34And so if the US government never does it, I mean, El Salvador, think of it as I'm doing it for my kids in the same way I saw emerging markets. So that was one story. There were other ones that all involved with my thought process on this as bringing back hope and fun to people. And so when the applause are less about me talking about why it's connected to AI and stuff, and it's more about that it brings back hope, hope is a very, very powerful world for people. I realized it in Brazil and you've seen it in your travels. There's a lot of countries where people just have no hope. They have no access to education.

47:10They have no access to being able to get a job. They have no access to stuff in this country. It's very, very different. But I think for people that have lost the hope of upward mobility, that have lost the hope of enjoying their day to day, I just think that I felt that in the community and I, the applause thing really hit me. So. And I learned this and you've learned this is that once you change your mindset from the macro-doomer and become the secular bull market, oh my God, this is amazing, and we can make money for it, the world's got to change, it's so much easier. To be hopeful as opposed to fearful is like a sea change.

47:52I see it in so many people when they go through this crypto journey, they come out the other side and they're like, oh, I get it now, I can be an optimist, and it's okay. So here's the funny thing. The most money I've, almost all the money I've ever made in my life has been during bear markets. Yeah, that was the macro game. That was the game. It's the macro game. And so my biggest year was 2008. And every trade I had on worked great. And I traded emerging markets throughout the 90s and I moved my way up the ladder. Most people in emerging markets got fired every two years because there was always another bear market and they'd get levered and they'd be gone.

48:30And I not only did well, but I came back and they gave me the biggest book at Morgan Stanley to run on the derivative side in the S &P book when I came back after being in Brazil. So my career was made on that. And I was called Dr. Doom and Gloom because I was bearish. And, you know, the year that changed it, and I don't think we've talked about this, but it was 2012. So I really was concerned that the EU would break up. I was one of those people that was like, this is the only thing left. We printed so much money, but now Germany's got to print money. I don't think this can happen. And so when Mario Draghi did the famous line in August of 12 and said they'll do whatever it takes, I went, okay, I don't even know what that means, but I do know this.

49:10That's a big statement for Europeans. So six months later, I made the decision to not travel to China because China had clearly stopped growing. And now it was in a complete deceleration phase. And I went to Silicon Valley for the first time. And I went to Singularity University. I met Peter Diamandis. And I started ending on this journey. And that's what led to me realizing that, oh, my gosh, we're an exponential innovation. And I don't want to think about this. But the connection I did not make, and I blame myself for this, 2011, Mark Andreessen writes software is eating the world. So when people go, well, the U.S.

49:45is going to fall because U.S. companies are overvalued. And I go, they're not U.S. companies. They're global software companies, completely different. These are not U.S. companies. This is actually the first stage of AI. They have no boundaries. They have nothing. Their revenues are mainly overseas. So completely different. But then Marc Andreessen wrote Why Bitcoin Matters. And so when people have asked me what they can read, I always say, read Why Bitcoin Matters from Marc Andreessen. And then he did another post in an interview in The Washington Post five months later. Two of the seminal pieces for me that it took me a long time to find, he was right on everything he wrote in there.

50:19And it really is the thing of why you want to understand what Bitcoin is. The paper was digital money. They solved the problem that he wrote. Every programmer he sent to go spend the time on it says he should get the Nobel Prize, meaning Satoshi. So once I started to realize that exponential innovation was just a math formula, that it was compounding very rapidly, and that all of these things would change, I realized, like you did, that the brain's not meant for this and that everyone didn't know how to talk about it. So that's when I started saying, there's no such thing as recession because you guys haven't made the transition yet to understand that software and everything else can't be met.

50:53I mean, we've talked about this before. I mean, you completely sideswiped me with that statement. It was in your office. when you said, listen, I don't think there'll be recessions again outside of exogenous events. And I went away and took that whole GMI article, in fact, anchored a whole bunch of stuff around that. And I think you're right. It's very difficult with the structure of the economy and how it is for that to happen. And then you've got the debasement of currency that allows you not to have a collateral or credit crisis. So in which case, and we've also, you and I talked about this as well another conversation another day but we've talked about this is we've replaced a debt-based economy for an equity-based economy because all new companies are now formed out of equity and not out of debt you used to borrow money go to the bank start a business right banks don't fucking lend you money to go to start a business now you have to get equity so then you've got it's less systemic risk because you don't blow up debtors in the banking system so if people you know they go through this like well who has a lot of debt it's all the old industrial companies so if you go look at Ford the stock is unchanged for the last 20 years if you go look like commercial real estate what what returns or commercial real estate can they have going for housing market AT &T you know they're all the same they're all the same and so we're actually doing what's supposed to happen they weren't there's no cyclicality these companies never come back anymore.

52:22They just die a slow death. And they're kept alive because they have voters. And at the end of the day, when the S &P goes down, and this is why I said last week was such a big deal, anyone who really thought inflation was completely dead, there's no way to look at what happened with Core CPI and have it be the largest in 30 years outside of COVID for a month over month number and not realize that, okay, we're not going back to where we were before 2019. We may not, I don't think we're going up very much, but I think we're going to sit there. But it makes tariffs really, really hard when the median voter is already not happy.

53:02They're already a complaint. We had the University of Michigan numbers come out today and the five-year inflation expectations, which I agree are biased by the political side. So everyone who's a Democrat thinks inflation is going to be up dramatically. But regardless, you have it at 30-year highs outside of COVID. You're just at a – or no, it is 30-year highs. It's not even ex-COVID. Today we got 3.5 % for one year. It's just a time where the administration wants to do tariffs, but it's very hard with fiscal dominance with this problem because if you knock the stock market down, tax receipts screw the deficit.

53:41So tariffs for what? You need tax receipts. If the tax receipts go down, that's a bigger nut than he can get in tariffs. So it makes it very difficult because as inflation is higher, if he does tariffs and that takes it up another 40 basis points, 50 basis points, and the equity market sells off 20 % out of fear, then you've got a bigger problem here because he can't get the tax receipts because that's where we are as a market. We've got the stock market as the biggest generator of tax receipts in the country. So how do we solve this or how does it play out this year and next year? i i i i think ai uh continues to dominate i really think the the meta thing was um a big signal yeah they're paying for amortized capex through making sure that they don't have compensation expense and employees going higher and i think with agents and humanoids on the way and everyone can debate when they have a huge impact but the reality is every day they're going to have an impact jordy wasn't it i can't remember whether it was a bank somebody also made an announcement just in line with this which is they'd make record profits but bonuses weren't going up i'm like fascinating there was a bloomberg article a month ago that talked about the fact that the ctos and this was on this expected the employee numbers at the banks to be two percent lower i think it was in the next three years maybe it was four years there's no such thing as a bank ever forecasting that the number of employees would be down three years from now.

55:10The second thing is Jamie Dimon on his return to work thing publicly came out and chastised his employees. Now, again, it wasn't that long ago they had to beg people to work. Forget getting them back in the office. They're not worried about people quitting is the point. The problem is to fire people because of AI is a no-no. So you're better off getting them to quit. it's much cheaper so people realize having worked at a bank and having worked at a fund firing people there's severance there's all kinds of stuff quitting and going someplace else you lose that expense so i think the labor capital thing is going to become a much bigger challenge going forward no doubt there's something you said that was sticking my head since you said it yeah we talked about mark andresen saying it's all going to be fine there's a bunch of people say it's all going to be fine i kind of think that over time it will be we'll figure out different ways and i think the crypto economy and the the community-based economies and stuff will solve that but i think they're also all lying because they don't want the political backlash they want the green light they've had they've got four-year green light to do whatever they want now and so none of them are going to say it's going to take your jobs yep they say at the margin it will but But they are highly incentivized because the size of the prize here is like staggeringly big.

56:34So here's the thing that I – so I don't believe we will have job losses. I believe we will have lower hiring and there will be displacement. But we have a shortage of physical labor jobs in this country and it's a big number. So that's where humanoids will eventually fit in. But we're not getting humanoids of mass numbers in the next five years. We're not going to have humanoid plumbers yet, you know. No, no. It's it's it's not coming soon. Can they already do some of that stuff? Yeah, sure. But we're ways away from that. And there's a lot of politics. And if it's not in four years, we don't know who the next administration would be and how much they'd be protecting jobs.

57:10So people don't have to worry about that. Nurses, doctors, we're not replacing nurses and doctors and people, even if they're going to live longer, the people that are really unhealthy right now, they're still going to be unhealthy and we have a demographic problem that is still coming up. So there's just no way to not have a good job situation. And also we, you know, we're just running down the baby boomer population and, and, you know, we're just not going to replace those jobs. Exactly. And nobody wants those jobs at a younger level, which is the issue. Again, I just think that, um, two of my daughters are in the healthcare slash social work field.

57:50Talk about high stress and how difficult it is. And they work a lot of hours, but they're not dealing with people that are healthy and it's just not fun. So the work thing is really the big thing. So you asked the question as to how this plays out. If profit margins keep getting better, the stock market will be fine because the companies will keep doing buybacks. And I just don't see people selling off stocks as long as profit margins are high. Earnings are not going to fall unless we get a big change in the economy, as we know, or a big rise in inflation like we saw in 2022. So you either need a 2020 playback or a 2022 playback.

58:28And I don't think either of those are coming. I think rates are kind of stuck around these levels. Inflation is stuck around these levels. GDP will go up or down a little. And so at the end of the year, it's not a question of whether I think earnings will grow. It's really a question of what the path to the stock market kind of moving that way. I have talked about the fact that I do think the MAG7 and the rest of the world are going to kind of migrate towards each other. We're seeing some of that right now. Bitcoin should outperform the MAG7 and institutional adoption will accelerate if that's the case.

58:55So I will finish on one point that we haven't talked about. I really do believe the network effect, the point where Facebook starts and it grows because of people, just more and more people using it in the ecosystem. That is where we are with crypto. And the volumes of stablecoin and AI agents will bring profits to individuals at home and profits to people around the globe. And even though a person in Indonesia does have enough money to move crypto, when you combine all 7 billion people and each one of them has$100, then all of a sudden they have the ability to move stuff or at least the adoption will go.

59:31and you brought that up. You follow adoption. I follow adoption. Volumes and stable coins are going to be a very big part. So the ecosystem to me is going to grow rapidly this year. Yeah, it makes sense. And I think you're right. That train of thought where the disruption of AI forces people into the crypto economy, which forces more adoption is going to be bigger. So I'm going to leave you with one train of thought because I think it's an interesting one. Satya Nadella announced that they have a bloody chip this big that is quantum and it does it can do compute in one second or one one second that takes i think it was something like 10 000 years for all the computers on earth added together to do yep okay so everyone's like oh that's amazing you know and people are starting to say like out of conversation someone's like well they're going to crack all diseases they're going to be able to do this.

1:00:27I'm like, yeah, absolutely. You have no idea what happens when you put that chip with AI. That is God. There is no limit to the power of this thing when you do that. And Nadella said something quite shocking. We all thought this was 15 years away, then 10 years away he goes it's only a few years two or three years away i'm like so this is the leap to asi where we are not now you know there's a different structure of the the planet you know it's just we are complete and that it's just and i don't know what that's going to mean to anything i mean literally once you've got that once you've got something that could do all the compute mankind has ever done in history and do it in one second and then you add it with self-learning ai then i don't know anymore that's beyond oh the economy's going to change structure this is like i don't know what anything is so you you brought up two things from this week both of them nadella conversation so one is the release of i think it's marana right um yeah he's telling we we've got this.

1:01:45So Quantum moves up and he talks about how fast it could be here. The second thing is he has an interview where he says, I'm not focused on AGI. I don't even know what AGI means. And for people at home, if you didn't know either of these things, so Raul and I are paying attention to this and we're going through it because we're looking for AI stories. When I do my YouTube video every single week. It has three parts. One is just a recap of the traditional macro world. I consider that the thing that most people care about, but the thing that they should be caring less about. And then the other two thirds, it goes to AI next.

1:02:26And I go through all of the things in humanoids and AI that have happened. And then the final part is crypto. And so I linked them because that's the bridge that I think, which is the economy is being disrupted by AI and we're going to end up in crypto. Those stories are so important for people at least to have in their mind to think about. And then they can ask that question. When you brought up, I thought you were going to go to, so do you think about how this ends up being a hacking thing? And we had a hacking thing in crypto today and everything goes. And I always say to people, so you think if China ends up having quantum, the first thing they're going to do is go hack Bitcoin or maybe nuclear weapons, maybe US banks, maybe whatever, like the grid.

1:03:06Why is the first thing going to be crypto? And even if it is the first thing, everything else is screwed too. So why does it all matter? So to your point, I always take these things as what I've learned in history, which is no matter what happens, if it ends up in the hands of someone who's dangerous, they have to assume that other people don't have the same thing, aren't there as well. And so when Microsoft makes an announcement, we don't even know what's true or not true. I got to be honest with you. Google did the same thing not that long ago where they came out and said they made advancements.

1:03:40And this was no more than four weeks ago. So I've heard enough people talk about the fact that they don't think it's possible that it's coming that soon. But regardless, I think when China released DeepSeek, I think you got to be careful with a lot of the things being announced that because the administration is in charge and trying to make sure that everyone's competing for who's ahead of each other. It is in our best interest of the country to say we've made advancements in quantum before China does so. Yeah, that is a point. But the point being is when it arrives, it is not, oh, they're going to hack Bitcoin.

1:04:10It's like we're about to create something, a thing that we don't even understand what it is. Yeah, I agree. Amazing time. Jordy, as ever, fantastic conversation, my friend. Give me the YouTube channel just so people can find your stuff? If they just type mine, luckily I have a unique name. Everything revolves around... Frisians. We're both Frisians. There you go. See, I didn't know that. You have a good portion. I'm guessing when you do your DNA thing, it shows up with a lot of Holland in it then because... No, it's... My mom is from Lewarden in Friesland. When I did... And my father's from India.

1:04:49My sister recently did her 23andMe. And it came back saying, frisian and punjabi we're like really because frisians are frisians and they've been there forever doing the same frisian thing and exactly i had no other i had no other blood punjabi frisian that was it so you're you were more than me but that was the thing i said because my mother's family was from all over but so when you look at it's like one percent one percent one percent 44 because like you said it's a tiny little island where it's almost aboriginal in terms and no one leaves. They've all been there the whole time. And so you end up in the same way.

1:05:25People can find me if they just look up Geordie Visser, if they go to my Twitter feed, if they go to my YouTube, if they go to my sub stack, if they go to my LinkedIn, they can all find me. It's the easiest way because I have so many different handles. So don't worry about it. Perfect. Geordie, good to see you, my friend. And we'll talk again soon, I'm sure. Enjoyed it, Raul. Thanks. Have a great one. you see as ever the conversation with Geordie goes where it goes and it's always super interesting I just like the fact that we can start throwing out ideas about the world and we've been building this conversation I urge you to go back to watch the other conversation I've had with Geordie because these are all building on each other because we're starting to get an understanding of how each other's brain works and we're starting to build theoretical frameworks in our head of which we have a commonality of understanding.

1:06:13And those are the joys of the conversations. The joys of this Journeyman series for me is building those mental frameworks, those mental building blocks to help us understand where the hell we're all going. And as I keep saying, I think we've got about five years before we get there and everything changes. And you need to prepare for that. You need to unfuck your future now to prepare for that five years time by 2030 when everything gets really quite freaky. Anyway, good luck out there.

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