Ask Me Anything: Happy Hour

28:35So realvision.com forward slash free mint. Sign up to the platform that way. You get the don't fuck this up NFT. It comes out in the 24th or something. So you've got a bit of time to do it. We're putting the wrong link, realvision.com. It's forward slash free mint. And you'll find that you get that just extra goody. There's also a whole kind of video from myself and Julian Bittle, who works with a global macro investor, is my chief head of macro research. He and I have a long conversation about macro and crypto. That's all there. So when you sign up, you'll see that. You can also get to engage with parts of the Crypto Academy and other parts of the education if you're not a crypto user.

29:21But anyway, go to that. That's one pitch. The other thing is, by the way, if you do that, or anybody who's in Real Vision, you're about to get for a month my and Julian Bittles macro investing tool for free. So this is an incredibly useful tool for anybody who kind of knows the business cycle matters, but doesn't know how to use it, how to make these charts of the ISM versus the S &P, how to know what goes up in what part of the cycle. What cycle of win is it? Back row, spring, crypto, summer, all of that stuff. This tool is idiot-proof because Julian built it for me. And so it's idiot-proof. It tells you which cycle we're in, what are the things that should be moving this cycle.

30:09It's not a trading model. It's an asset allocation tool. It's to give you that support and comfort. You're making the right decision. Should I be doing this now? It will kind of say, probably not or definitely yes. It's not infallible. It's not supposed to be for trading. It's for you to have that backstop for your confidence. And there's like weekly newsletters that show you where we are to keep you up to date. And Julian doesn't ask me anything video to help explain so you understand the cycle and how you can make it work for you. This is what my secret code was from GMI for 20 years. It's what Julian saw from me back in 2015 when he started building this at a giant Swiss asset manager where they use this for the asset allocation.

31:04We use this model for exponential age asset management as for our top down asset allocation for the fund of digital hedge funds. So digital asset hedge funds, crypto hedge funds. We use this model to do that. We've just got a few more features on the crypto side, but it includes crypto in it. It'll tell you when you should be reducing risk in crypto. It is the single most useful thing everybody should have access to. That's the macro investing tool. And it's free for everybody, including Real Vision free users. So when you sign up to the realvision.com or the free mint thing, you get this. ProCrypto, ProAllAccess, RVIP, you've got it full time forever.

31:43Everyone else gets it for a month. pro-crypto, sorry, pro-macro, pro-crypto, you've got it for a three-month trial as well. So you can really get your teeth stuck in, see the seasons changing, how it works out for you, and you too will become a macro master. Everybody using this will become a macro master. It's just a hack. Anyway, it's free, so knock your fucking socks off. I'm trying to help as many people as possible navigate this. It's kind of part of the how to unfuck your future, and also don't fuck this up. So there's a tool, enjoy it. To find it, you go to the data center. I'm gonna really piss Brian off and share my screen.

32:22No, that was me turning my camera off. You should see I don't know what I'm doing. So if I go to my real vision, that's a handsome man there, I don't know who that is. But if we go to the data center, I got a macro tool. Okay, last updated today. It tells you all about the secular trends, the macro seasons, where we are in the seasons, real-time kind of calculator. Well, real-time, it's published about monthly because the data is monthly. What are the main leading indicators that I talk about? The business cycle dominoes, what's lagging, what's leading? And then finally, the asset allocation tool to tell you what you should be thinking.

33:08anyway so i'm not plugging anything because we're not nobody's paying for it's all free so i just want to help you uh but you'll love it so much you'll end up paying for it afterwards anyway okay that's the end of all of that plugging the next part is where the chaos starts and that's you guys um asking me questions so i am just going to open up my real vision again because i've now just closed it by mistake go to this video and see your questions. OK. Alex Riddle, I'm just randomly reading between the chat and the comment section. Alex Riddle, Raoul, when cycle is near end, do you sell your bags and rotate into Bitcoin?

33:53I didn't do any selling this time around. I kept with what I did and then added. And it's worked phenomenally well. And then I did the asset switch from ETH to Solana. I probably wouldn't go. I don't know what I'm going to do yet. I actually don't know. I'll probably certainly take some lifestyle chips off because I've been in the, you know, it's not an easy fucking trade and I've run it now for a few years. So I'd take some lifestyle chips off in 2025 and run the rest and maybe reallocate. Who the hell knows? Too early to tell, my friend. Too early to tell. John San. I've now got 78 comments and I've lost John.

34:31John, I'm sure your comment was the most important one. John. John Eyre's fucking great. I don't really realize what that is. Rich Dow, Rowell's fucking great, so don't fuck this up, you fucking fuckers. I'm sorry, I do swear a lot. I don't have kids. My wife's from New Jersey, and I'm English. It's destined to swear. We probably swear, or I probably swear almost as much as the Australians do, but I'm not quite sure.

34:57Yeah, I know. Tad Smith. Tad, I'm sorry. I know. There's too much swearing. I appreciate it. And maybe I'm getting over excited about the party. So I won't be very excited by tomorrow. Let's realize that. OK.

35:15OK, Jonathan D. Raoul, with Bitcoin ETFs being approved. Sorry, my bloody email keeps piling in. I'm a very, very popular person. I'll have you know. Raoul, with Bitcoin ETFs being approved, an expected increase in liquidity. Macro regime shows switching to summer. Feels like a great opportunity to increase exposure to crypto. I'm curious what I may be overlooking, or should I monitor closely? I agree with you. What would be the icing on the cake if you're not fully allocated? I'm obviously up to my eyeballs in crypto allocations. But if you weren't, if you were a little more sensible than I, then you should buy, if we get a sell-off or a sideways consolidation that I was talking about, this is a gift of opportunity.

35:57John San asking, again, the macro tool. Yes, go to the data center. It's all there. It's free. everybody can do it. Chicken McDougat. I love that. Well, I hear you talk about monetizing the debt and often find myself nodding in agreement until I realize I have no idea what that means. Do you think I do? I don't know. Can you, too long doesn't mean, monetize debt. Yes.

36:22So pretty straightforward. You're in debt, Mr. Chicken. And you've got to pay your credit card bill at the end of the month. And what you do is borrow money to pay the credit card bill. Now, your debt keeps getting bigger, obviously, because you're using debt to pay the interest on the debt. But governments, they got another little trick up their sleeve. Because unfortunately, I've checked my HP printer next to me doesn't print money, unfortunately. But the governments have an HP printer that does print money. And it's the money printer goes burr is monetization of the debt. What it means is I print money and buy my own debt.

37:11That's monetizing debt. And what that does is debase the currency, the purchasing power of the currency versus scarce and fixed assets. So that's monetization of debt. And it's basically cheating. It means that governments, unlike you and I, don't have to pay their debts. Now, if you're a small economy like Argentina or Venezuela, well, those chickens, Mr. Chicken McDougat, come home to roost. Like your chicken would come home to roost if you kept borrowing money to pay your credit card. But if you're the world's reserve currency, you can do what the fuck you like. And if you're the British, you can pretty much get away with it.

37:57The Europeans, almost certainly. The Japanese, oh, yeah, you've got all the savings in the world. Do what you want. The Chinese, yeah, who's going to stop you? So that's what happens. Governments can get away with it. They did it to stop the biggest financial crisis of our times turning into the Great Depression. And now they've realized it's the only answer they've got. So it's a very long answer to your question um okay hi ral i understand cowbell inflates asset prices for those you don't know you you can um always ask the uh the ai bot what cowbell is but cowbell is stimulus comes from the saturday night um sketch um what makes it increase asset prices relative to goods i think this is important because the latter will turn to inflation and probably less liquid less liquidcy yes really crucial.

38:50When you debase the currency, only things of value retain value, fixed assets. And that is art, wine, crypto, equities, high-end real estate, these kind of things, the things that the rich people own, apart from crypto, because everybody can. It's the first democratized scarce asset, finally. Gold. Gold does well, too. Well, it does worse than it should do. But that is what debasement does. It devalues it against valuable things. Unfortunately, as humans, we're not valuable. Our wages don't go up in line with monetization of debt. Debasement is happening at a pace of, on average, about 15 % of the year in the United States, while wages rise more in line with GDP or just inflation itself.

39:45Nobody gets ahead. So what happens is asset prices go up and wages don't. Why do goods not go up? This is the confusion everybody has. It's printing money. It's inflation. It's asset price inflation. Goods inflation, well, these are variable inputs. You can make more of this stuff. Variable stuff is not as valuable. And variable stuff, therefore, doesn't get adjusted because you're not adjusting the demand in the economy. It's not actually people buying more things. Really, what it is, is just a monetary trick. So it doesn't move these variables because there's no extra demand. You're not booming the underlying economy.

40:25You're just changing the asset price versus its denominator. Brian, what hat is on backwards today? Can't remember, but he's definitely got backwards hat on today um i don't think he i don't know if he's even got hair anymore who knows um don't fuck this up is definitely trending tad you know it's true right i think everybody it resonates a lot with everybody is uh it's humorous but i do it on purpose i try and purposely communicate this stuff in ways that people understand and find humorous so it it sticks in people's minds. And this is on a serious note. The world, I am very optimistic about many, many things, particularly the world of investing.

41:12And what confuses people is I am optimistic because I think it's absolutely fucked. We've broken the global economy. We've broken financial markets. We've broken trust. And that means that more liquidity is the only answer to drive this beast. And that drives markets higher. Now, when we go out towards 2030 and beyond, I don't even know what the world's going to look like anymore. I honestly, I spent my whole life living in the future. And I do not know the disruption of AI, robots, genetics, you know abundant near free energy all of the things that are coming i think it just completely changes it's a singularity event for economies as well as humanity and i think it might change economies first i don't know what businesses even survive what new businesses are what the models i know nothing and that's an honest answer so i do know we've got one or two cycles left of the everything code.

42:14Because we can't avoid the everything code, because nobody can pay the debts, and in which case the whole system collapses, which they won't do because the baby boomers need to retire. And they're trying to support the baby boomers' savings complex and the government itself. They can't raise taxes to pay for the bills because they've got any money and politics are too fragile right now to raise taxes. So they just clip the coins instead, which is debasement of currency. And there's only two assets that outperform the debasement of currency. And I've talked about this ad infinitum. And that is technology stocks and crypto.

42:54And crypto is the fastest source in the race. And now, why don't fuck this up is because neither of those two assets are particularly easy to own because they're volatile. And people hate them. People whisper in your ear all day long. They mock you on Twitter. They tell you you're stupid. You shouldn't do this. You shouldn't do this. Buy my value investing stock. You should buy the Russell 2000. You should diversify, my friend. And meanwhile, we've got probably two cycles less. Two cycles less left to not fuck this up. Again, I apologize for all the swearing, but this is actually important. Two cycles to not fuck this up.

43:37This is your chance, and these are the only chances we're going to get. I won't be right in everything that I do. The everything code seems directionally pretty right. It'll at some point be somewhere wrong. We will see where we go. But I think overall, generally on a macro secular theme, I'm usually not wrong. The paths, they can change. So anyway, so don't fuck this up is important. It's trying to teach you how not to get shaken out. because if you get shaken out, you'll miss the last chance or the last chances we get. There will be a down cycle in the middle. You need to understand how that's going to work.

44:17And then finally, really at the end of it, we should have unfucked our futures. And again, it's a humorous thing. It's nice to talk about, nice to drop in, but it's actually really serious about unfucking your futures. If you're young or if you're old, you've got a real problem on your hands. I can see that by the retirement crisis video got viewed 4 million times online, because it's a stress point for people. If you're young, it's like, God, I've got student debts. I'm 35 years old. I've got student debts. I've got two kids now. I've got married. I've had to move out of New York City or whatever city.

44:55I'm worried about job security. How's everything going to change? How am I going to save? I'm putting money in my 401k doesn't seem to pay for a house. How am I ever going to pay for a house? These are the answers. This is why the millennial population are drawn to crypto hugely, and rightly so, because they want and need that risk to give them a chance to do what their parents had. And that's why they're drawn to technology investing and even in option investing. If you're doing that, if you're doing standard investing in your 401k and with your discretionary side, you're trying to get ahead by taking these wilder bets.

45:30I think that's a pretty sensible investment strategy. I have no issue with that whatsoever. So anyway, Andrew Warkotch. Any news about Solana? How's Firedance are doing? I don't actually know. I mean, it's in beta. I haven't heard anything. We've not seen anything online. Anything's going wrong. So I presume the beta is moving ahead. And by the summer, it'll come out.

46:00Lucia August. Ralph from an American expat now living in the UK. I'm sorry, the Isle of Mud. It's a lovely place for a week, a year. How can we in the UK access ETFs in the Exponentialist portfolio? So the Exponentialist, for those of you who don't know, is the service that I put together with David Mattin, who writes the technology side of Global Macro Investor, expanding on my major themes. We have a portfolio, a recommended portfolio. Lucia, I think the answer is it doesn't have to be blindly copied. If you can't do in the UK, like if you can't get ARK, well, then go and use Scottish Mortgage Trust.

46:48Those guys are very smart. They've been on Real Vision. They're the big technology mutual fund in the UK. So you can do it that way. Just use what I've put and try and do it. If not, find a brokerage account, interactive brokers or whoever that gives you access to US stocks. I think that's probably a more important lesson.

47:11Okay, this is when I have that gormless face when I'm looking across. Jorge Rojas, Raul, he spelt my name wrong. He's Spanish. He spelt my bloody name wrong, even though it's the French spelling. The IPO analogy deserves a Grimona. Thank you, my friend. Grimona, for those of you who don't know, is my favorite carver grower, which is Spanish sparkling wine grower. I'm looking forward to today's food and drink section. We don't have one today. Well, actually, I've given you enough and I'm still drinking my hibiscus tea. And also, if anybody knows anybody at LaCroix, I would like somebody to sponsor my show.

47:51And I probably drink more LaCroix on screen than any other human being alive. And I think it's time that LaCroix reached out. I don't know who owns them now. It's probably Pepsi or somebody reached out and said, we'd love to sponsor you, Ralph. You are exactly who we want. some swearing buffoon living in the Caribbean who entertains people online by talking about the end of the world and how we can profit from it. If you are from La Croix, you know who to sponsor. We'd love to do it.

48:24Or La Croix, if you're French. Okay, I'm going back to the top. I'm going to keep reading comments like this because, you know, my wife never says them. Geoffrey Massat, Raoul is fucking great. We love him. I appreciate that greatly. Tad, you're having a little too much fun on the platform today. You're supposed to be working. Raoul, does any of the recent news about Musk give you any pause on Tesla being the best AI public market play? Also, what are your thoughts on microstrategies versus the Bitcoin ETF? I'm not confusing you for Jim Cramer. Thank you, Tad.

49:03I still think Tesla is the stock for 2024. I admit, it trades like shit right now. Again, we have to ignore all of the noise around Elon Musk. This company sells more EV cars. It's further in self-driving, further in robotics, and further in AI than any company in the world, particularly that nexus. So they best represent the exponential age. So anything about Musk, I think, is a sideshow. It may hurt the stock. Really, what's going on with the stock? Tesla is two companies. One is a technology company. And that is why it did very well last year from the lows, because it's following all the other tech stocks.

49:51It's forward-looking based on the forward-looking economy. However, right now, the current economy, where ISM is today, is low. That's when car companies build up inventories and people don't sell enough stuff. And it's a real battle. So they've got that dichotomy, car company, technology company. Now, if I'm right about 2024, then we'll see the ISM pick up. And then we'll have more car sales, lower inventories, and a technology story. And that's why I think that double whammy makes it a very attractive play. So I'm not sure, Tad, if there's any issue here with Musk overall. We will see. Micro strategies versus Bitcoin ETF.

50:38Why are micro strategies? I don't really understand it. It was a Bitcoin proxy. I think it'll probably trade a discount to its holdings now. Yes, I understand there's a cash-flowing business within it, but it's been a dying or stagnant business for a while. Well, this is no bad thing about Michael Saylor, but I just don't see why a proxy like that should trade like it does. It's kind of like GBTC started trading at huge discounts. So I actually think it trades a discount to its holdings over time. I'm not sure. So I prefer the ETF. I would just pure play ETF. Do that if that's what you need. But Tad, I'd be embarrassed if you're buying ETFs, because I know you and you should be owning it in your own wallet.

51:20Okay, Guy Edwards, I'm all in an irresponsibly long. And if you remember, that came with caveats too. That was basically the same don't fuck this up thing. I was yesterday for the ETF launch wearing irresponsibly long T-shirt, which I hadn't worn. Raymond Bast, get the Pro All Access, totally worth it. Yeah, any of you watching this is in Real Vision. Go into the marketplace, the new marketplace. There's an unbelievable deal for Pro Access for three months. It's kind of like a life hack to get you all set up to understand everything. And you cancel after that if you don't want it. But you'll get all of the kind of big stuff just at this very important macro stuff.

52:00Paul English, save the old people. What does this mean? Yeah, it's a good question, Paul. There are 76 million baby boomers in the United States alone. They are all retiring. They are all holders of equity, not bonds. in Europe, they're bondholders. So they're basically safe. And Europe's got a welfare state, but it means that government spending in Europe goes up to pay for it. In the US, there's less of a welfare state. And most of these people have been in equities. Now, what you can't have is a retired population living off their savings and the equity market halving, because then you've halved the wealth of the most wealthy cohort in the world.

52:45The damage it will do to your economy, it will never recover from. That is why Janet came in and stepped in with her liquidity when the S &P was down 25 % last year. That tells you where the government put is, let alone the Powell put. That's the government put. It's like, no more. We can't allow these people to lose their life savings because they are the largest pool of savings. So if you're massively indebted, what do you do? You make sure you're best friends with the people who lend you money. That's the baby boomers via the pension system and other stuff. OK, I am going to wrap soon because I've got 60 people coming.

53:37David Thompson, any idea how much BTC OTC supply is out there? Seems like ETS are going to burn through the OTC supply. OTC supply is just large pools of liquidity sourced by other people. And it's over the counter. So not listed on a change. The dog is scratching at my door endlessly. She's driving me nuts. So really, it's like a firm like Galaxy. They will provide pricing. They will then go and hedge it in the market. So there's no such thing as like this OTC pool. It's just where you go to get somebody to find all and source all the risk for you that you're requesting.

54:15um ian dunn do you play golf at all if so what's your handicap you don't know me very well i absolutely hate golf i hate everything about it any golf club that wants me as a member i don't want to be a member of um it's just wearing slacks and a check vest and some polo shirt tucked in just know everything everything with golf is awful everything every single part of it so i know that's a contentious thing but uh the last time i played golf was 20 years ago i walked off the golf course through my bags uh through my clubs into a bin and said that's it never again i hated it um okay i'm going to random final question

55:06uh

55:10Raoul, have you? Frank Anthony. Okay, it's a good question. Nick Carrere. Sorry, that's Nick from Real Vision. Where was my invite? Nick, I'm planning on something to get you over here, so just shut up. I'm looking after you. Don't worry. Frank Anthony. Raoul, have you considered putting the bond trade back on? No, because I've now come around to the fact that everything is a suboptimal expression of the same trade. And the trade is liquidity. And the optimal expression is crypto and technology. And so I would rather put risk capital into that trade than the bond trade. And a lot is priced into the bond market.

55:51So I just don't think it's as attractive. You know, I just think, you know, what do I rather do? You know, make a decent rally, 30%, 40 % rally in the bond market and go, well, that's great. 30 % rally, let's say. Unbelievably good year in bonds versus 5x in Solana or whatever it'll do next year. 10x. Oh, I did 10x last year. Whatever. It's just like none of it compares. Just none of it compares. So I just don't do it. I will let you know if I think it's a good trade. won't mean that I will do it. Okay, sorry. Final question before my wife shoots me.

56:31Some question about Verve, that's promoting your bags, which we don't do here. Okay, everybody. I think that is it for today. It was a cheeky 50 minutes. It was supposed to be half an hour. I hope you've enjoyed it. I hope I've helped you explain stuff. I hope you understand a bit more of the don't fuck this up and how to unfuck your future. I think you should go, as I said, go onto the platform, realvision.com, forward slash free mint if you want the free NFT of Don't Fuck This Up to remind you. It'll be looking at you in your wallet all day telling you to behave yourself. If you don't, you don't care about crypto, you don't want an NFT, realvision.com, go to the free platform.

57:13There's tons of good stuff for you there. If you're watching on YouTube and you are so damn lazy that you can't bother to type realmovement.com, then just put subscribe, like, and a comment saying, Raoul's fucking great. Anyway, that's all for me. Have a phenomenal weekend. I'm sorry for all the swearing as ever. And toodle pip.

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58:23So it's a really unique way to build your financial world where you can get the research that you want from all different sources that you trust all in one place. And this is just the start of where we're going. So go to realvision.com forward slash marketplace, check it out and see what's going to work for you, how to leverage the best talents in the world, the brightest minds to create the biggest opportunities for 2024 and beyond. Enjoy it. We hope you enjoyed this episode. At Real Vision, we arm you with expert knowledge, time efficient tools, and a powerful network to help you succeed on your financial journey.

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