Bitcoin Breaks $30K: Where Is This Market Headed?

11 Apr 2023 · 1 h 7 min

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Podcast Notes: Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

Episode Title

Bitcoin Breaks $30K: Where Is This Market Headed?

Episode Overview In this episode, Christopher Perkins, president and managing partner of CoinFund, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the recent trends in cryptocurrency markets, particularly focusing on Bitcoin's rise above $30,000, the Ethereum Shapella upgrade, regulatory landscape, and the promising projects emerging in Web3.

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Key Themes and Discussions

Market Trends

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum Recovery
  • Bitcoin has surged back above $30,000, while Ethereum has crossed $1,900.
  • In the last six months, Bitcoin has risen approximately 40%, outpacing traditional tech proxies like NASDAQ (up 14%).
  • Correlation to Macroeconomic Factors
  • The upswing in cryptocurrency prices is attributed to broader macroeconomic inputs rather than regulatory actions.
  • A weakening dollar and pressures on the banking sector, primarily due to an inverted interest rate curve, are affecting market sentiment.

Regulatory Landscape

  • Regulatory Actions and Responses
  • The SEC is ramping up its enforcement by increasing the number of attorneys in the crypto division from 20 to 40.
  • There’s ongoing litigation regarding what constitutes a security vs. a commodity in digital assets, with the SEC and CFTC asserting differing jurisdictions.
  • Impact of Stricter Regulations
  • Perkins suggested that the regulatory environment is becoming more stringent, influencing how crypto entities navigate compliance challenges.
  • He emphasized the need for principles-based regulation over enforcement actions.

Ethereum's Shapella Upgrade

  • Significance of Shapella
  • The Shapella upgrade allows users to withdraw staked tokens, marking a pivotal moment for Ethereum's functionality.
  • Perkins believes that this flexibility will encourage more staking and contribute positively to the ecosystem despite concerns over potential sell-offs.

Web3 and Innovation

  • Exciting Developments in Web3
  • There is significant ongoing development in the Web3 space, particularly in DeFi and gaming.
  • Perkins highlighted the intersection of blockchain and AI as a major area of exploration and innovation.

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Key Takeaways

  • Macro Influences
  • The macroeconomic environment remains crucial in determining the future trajectory of cryptocurrency prices.
  • Building Momentum
  • Despite regulatory challenges, the crypto space is seeing sustained building and innovation, particularly in Ethereum and various Web3 initiatives.
  • Long-Term Outlook
  • Perkins remains optimistic about the overall health and potential of the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing a focus on long-term value creation.

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Future Considerations

  • Regulatory Clarity
  • As regulatory frameworks evolve, clarity will be essential for fostering growth and compliance.
  • Geopolitical Dynamics
  • The podcast suggests an increase in competition among global jurisdictions to establish favorable regulatory environments for crypto innovation.

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Conclusion This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of cryptocurrency markets, highlighting key macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and ongoing innovations in Web3. The discussions underscore the importance of adaptability for crypto businesses in navigating this rapidly changing landscape.

For further insights, listeners are encouraged to tune in to upcoming episodes and explore the Real Vision platform for in-depth financial analysis.

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Transcript

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1:30Chris Perkins, welcome back, man. Hey, Ash, how are you? I'm doing great, man. Obviously, lots happening right now. Lots going on. Yeah, it definitely feels like spring, doesn't it? It feels like spring in crypto markets, man. I hate to start with the obvious here, but man, let's take a look at what's happening in price. Obviously, lots of people focusing on this right now. Bitcoin back over 30 ,000, Ethereum back over 1 ,900. Lots of interesting stuff happening in your markets right now. What's your take on all this big picture? Yeah, there seems to be ongoing momentum in the crypto space. And I think that's for a number of different reasons.

2:06If you step back, in the last six months, Bitcoin is actually up 40%. And if you look at something like the NASDAQ as a proxy for tech, it's up about 14%. So crypto seems to be leading the way. And I think there's a few reasons why that narrative remains very strong. I think one of those things is obviously very correlated to the macroeconomic inputs that we're seeing. And even as we looked back last year, it wasn't like regulatory action that moved the price. It was macro. And we continue to see issues around dollar. Dollar strength looks to be coming off. It looks to be weakening. And this inverted interest rate curve is putting a lot of pressure, I think, on the banking sector that we've seen over and over again.

2:48And my personal read, having worked at a bank for many years, is that, you know, we're not through this yet. As long as the curve, the interest rate curve stays inverted as it is, you're going to see continued pressure, deposit pressure, where you're going to see assets moving into things like money market funds. And that's going to put continued pressure on the banking sector. Moreover, I think, you know, and I've been in these rooms where these conversations have happened. I think the regulators are going to take a lot of action after what they learned from this last crisis and potentially apply much more strict stress tests to the banks, including the GSIBs.

3:23I mean, could you imagine when you're trying to think about the amount of fractional reserves that you're supposed to hold, the regulator coming in and say, OK, I need you to give me a new scenario that you're going to lose 35 to 40 percent of your assets in 36 hours. how much capital do you have to hold? Or applying new stress tests to the community banks and then saying, well, wait a second, if we apply them to the community banks, the GSIBs have to be even held to higher standards. So that continues to put pressure. And I think the only way that that pressure to abate is through probably not tightening rates as much as we've seen in the past.

3:57And that's going to play right into the crypto narrative. As we know, Bitcoin prevails as the dollar weakens. And it looks like there's going to be less tightening going on in the future. Well, this is really interesting, as there's so much there to talk about, so much there to unpack. But it's almost like you could say it's a grudge match between what's happening in macro and what's happening on the regulatory front. Let's talk a little bit about rates. 2s, 10s curve upside down now more than 60 basis points on my screen. This is 10s minus 2s in terms of yield, negative to 60 basis points, significant there.

4:34And yet, at the same time, we have these macro headwinds. We have these sort of macro tailwinds. We have the regulatory headwinds. Really kind of a weird situation where you have these two things moving in opposite directions. It looks like macro is winning. Yeah, I think so. And I think we also oftentimes have tunnel vision around what's happening in the United States. We have a team in Hong Kong right now. And I got a call from one of my guys this morning. He's just like, my gosh, the amount of energy that I'm seeing over here is unbelievable. And so, again, as the U.S. continues to, I guess, go through this post-FTX hangover, other jurisdictions aren't waiting.

5:12In Europe, we have MICA coming out this month in April. We have the U.K. following. We have Singapore saying, uh-oh, Hong Kong is coming out of its shell. So everyone seems to be moving forward. Also, we're seeing a lot of momentum out of the UAE as well, Dubai and Abu Dhabi with very strong regimes. And so remember, crypto is also very global and we're seeing a lot of strength overseas. And look, one of the things that concerns us is we continue to see a departure of developers from the United States to their jurisdictions. But look, as we said earlier, the macro picture remains strong and macro seems to dominate price.

5:50And we expect for that trend to continue. We should also talk about ETH, Ash. Yeah, absolutely. We should just say, by the way, for folks, we started in Medias Ray here. Chris Perkins, of course, is president and managing partner over at CoinFund, a digital investment firm and registered investment advisor, which gives you the context and the position to have this overview that we have on markets right now. Let's talk a little bit about ETH. Obviously, Shanghai scheduled to go live tomorrow. This is a huge story. Chris, give us your sense on what this means. Yeah. First, shout out to the Ethereum community, what they've been able to accomplish.

6:28In September, we had the merge, which was just an incredible transformation of Ethereum. And now with what we call Shappella, we'll offer participants the opportunity to actually withdraw their tokens that have been staked. And so on the surface, people may say, oh, my gosh, if these tokens have been locked up for quite a period of time in certain cases, well, they're just going to sell them and that's going to hurt the price. I think when you step back and you strategically look at the progress and the strength of this community, actually your ability to withdraw your staked assets will be an unlock.

7:02And I think you'll see actually over time more folks actually staking their Ethereum because obviously you have much more flexibility if you can withdraw the assets. And so personally, I think this is excellent for the ecosystem. We continue to see monumental building. I mean, look what's going on in the layer two space, the scaling that's now coming online, that's unlocking all different types of applications, whether it's, you know, gaming or DeFi, all things that, you know, where you need lower cost basis, higher transactions per second or TPS, as we call it. So, look, very, very excited about the Ethereum ecosystem.

7:40It continues to have incredible momentum. I think Chapella or Shanghai plus Capella, I think that's going to. Let's explain that, Chris, while we're talking about it. Yeah, so there are two different EIPs that are going into effect, Shanghai and Capella. And I think when you combine them, we call them Capella. So I would call out, there's a ton of research out there, but this will be another really nice unlock for Ethereum. And again, incredible, incredible momentum in that space. Yeah, so what we're talking about really is generating native liquidity within the token itself. I believe the dominance index has risen on Ethereum from about 14 % to around 20 % where we are today.

8:24Obviously, a significant change in terms of the dominance, in terms of overall market capitalization and price in Ethereum. Clearly a bullish sign. Yeah, again, very excited about the ecosystem across the layer two space as well. And yeah, I think generally, like we said earlier, it's springtime. We look forward to seeing continued momentum in this space, despite some of the regulatory pressures that we've seen. And we could expect to see more of that as well. Yeah, let's talk more about regulatory pressure. You and I were talking about this a little bit this morning. SEC is adding enforcement attorneys to their crypto division.

9:00I believe originally the plan was for 20, now the plan for 40. A significant ramp up in terms of regulatory enforcement firepower. What's your take on that? Why does it matter? Yeah, so we were really hoping that we would see legislation, and we've seen this ongoing challenges between what is a security and what is not. Even with recent proposals around legislation, we never really got clarity on that. Look, in the aftermath of FTX, I think the regulators, whether across the board, they know that they need to act. And like it or not, I do think we're going to end up finding a new equilibrium at some point.

9:43Now, it takes a while to go through litigation. But the SEC, based on public reporting, there's been a number of Wells notices that have come out. Let's tell folks what a Wells notice is. It's an intention. It's an announcement from SEC. They send a Wells notice to an entity. And essentially, it's a notification that there is impending enforcement action. Right. Right. And so we're seeing ongoing litigation happening across Ripple XRP. We know there's a case with DCG as well. Now we're seeing, you know, Coinbase has a well's notice that they're navigating Paxos as well. And so as you start looking at the scope of current litigation and potential litigation, it's pretty obvious why you would see an increase in staff.

10:33You know, it's unfortunate. You'd rather see policy be defined from legislation. And, you know, we are big believers in principles-based regulation. And, you know, the one thing that is encouraging from my perspective is that we are, you know, we were named a coin fund to something called the Global Markets Advisory Committee on the CFTC, and they will be launching a subcommittee focused specifically on digital assets. And so we think the time is more important than ever to engage with regulators, to help explain to them the nuances. And much of what we do is nuanced. You hate to see something as with the promise of crypto to be politicized.

11:13But our goal is to educate, engage and try to get the right policy outcomes. Hopefully that will ultimately come from legislation. Yeah, there's so much there. There's so many layers, so much nuance to unpack in what you just said. Obviously, this idea of regulation by enforcement, not the traditional standard rulemaking route where you can have principles-based sort of replicable regulation propounded in a way that allows other good actors in the space to at least understand what the expectations of regulators are and therefore hopefully respond to it in a constructive way. Then you have this idea about the absence of legislation coming from Congress.

11:52And finally, the notion of a kind of regulatory competition that seems to be happening right now between SEC on one end and CFTC on the other. It's interesting because you have suits from SEC claiming, in effect, that digital assets are securities, while simultaneously you have CFTC suits claiming, in fact, the opposite, that they are commodities. This is a very complicated environment for entities in this space, particularly for those who are attempting to be good actors. Give us a little bit of a sense of how you understand all that complexity. Well, maybe one of the reasons for the strength in Bitcoin is we know, in the United States at least, we know the regulatory consideration.

12:33It's a commodity. And so it's very clear. I think there have been some questions on other assets. It's interesting to note that the CFTC did come out in their action against Binance and suggest that they asserted jurisdiction over Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and then a couple of stablecoins. Not just jurisdiction, but the claim in plain language that they are, in fact, commodities. That's right. That's right. Which would result in their jurisdiction. Right. Look, I think in order to deem something a security, there's a lot of work that has to go in and legal analysis around Howey. it'll be interesting to see how the sec you know you know if they agree and they follow on with that suit and how it plays it out but look ultimately i think a lot of this will play out probably in the courts in the absence of that legislation and then you know the thing that i've learned in crypto is that most crypto participants want to be regulated right we would love to have clear regulation our founders aren't our entrepreneurs would love to know the rules where they need to build and then we would build that accordingly and so like one thing that I'm going to be very focused on as I advance my dialogue within the various committees that I participate in is, how do we have, how do we come up with and agree on empirical measures for things such as decentralization, right?

13:51So if a protocol is truly decentralized and it would fall into, or not truly decentralized, what would be those empirical measures upon which it would fall into one jurisdiction or the other? But do we even know if that's the test, right? That's the complexity around this, right? So this is, you're alluding to essentially the Hinman standard, this notion of sufficient decentralization. But do we really know if that's the test that SEC is using in the absence of legislation? You mentioned the Howey test. Let me just backfill some of this information here so folks who are not securities lawyers can follow along.

14:23Of course, many people have heard about what the Howey test is. The Howey test is a test to determine whether or not something is or is not a security. And the general standard, and this is just an overview, obviously I'm not an attorney, not legal advice. But the standards are four. There are four prongs to the Howey test. Number one, an investment of money. Number two, in a common enterprise. Number three, with the expectation of profit. And number four, finally, to be derived from the efforts of others. You know, we're in terra incognita now, trying to understand whether or not this notion of sufficient decentralization is something that SEC, under the current regime, will in fact recognized as a defining characteristic of that, which is not a security.

15:04There are just so many layers to all this. Jump back in and give us your take. Yeah, look, my goal would be to work for my portfolio companies via positive engagement with the various regulators to say, okay, let's work on empirical measures that would assert that an asset would be in one bucket or the other. At the end of the day, right, it shouldn't matter whether it's subject to SEC jurisdiction or CFTC jurisdiction because the same principles should apply, right? It should be client protections, thoughtful disclosures, things of that nature that frankly, you know, weren't followed in instances like FTX.

15:43And so how do we, and at a time when it shouldn't matter, let's focus on the principles and then let's give some clarity to our founders around, okay, what do I need to do or how do I structure my project so that it would go into one of these jurisdictions or the other so that I can go ahead and be compliant. Because in my mind, the vast, vast components of people I deal with want to be compliant. They want to follow the rules. They want to know what the rules are. And I think that is how countries are trying to differentiate themselves right now, starting with the Europeans and Mika about to hit the official journal.

16:16Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick pause and hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back.

16:26Let me just say this. just to give credence or at least voice to what the official position is here of Chair Gensler and SEC. You've framed it extremely well in terms of what people in the space think, what they say. We've had these conversations here on Real Vision Crypto many times, of course. This idea that people in the crypto space just want very clear, easily followed rules of the road to understand how to navigate this. the position from Chair Gensler, at least as I understand it, based on his remarks, is essentially the rules of the road have been the same since the securities laws have been propounded in this country.

17:03Come in and register, he says. Now, obviously, folks in the crypto space say there is no way to do that. But that's kind of almost the mental roadblock here that people are trying to get by. Essentially, what you have is the chair of the SEC saying, we know what the rules are. They're very clearly defined by federal courts and federal statutes. You can go back to the Act of 33, the Act of 34. That's the position that the SEC chair has taken, or at least that's my interpretation of it. Do you see it differently? Look, it's an interesting challenge. I think, like I talked about previously, due to some of these, you know, in my experience, many of the protocols, you know, all of them, they're trying to be compliant.

17:43To the extent that there's a disagreement, I think that we'll find a new equilibrium in the courts. And I think we'll start getting some of that feedback, back fairly soon, potentially with XRP. And that will help inform, I think, maybe the next generation of regulations and statute that will abide by it. I wish we could get something from our elected officials via comprehensive, thoughtful, proactive legislation. But in the absence, we're going to probably end up in this new equilibrium. And finding that new equilibrium through the federal courts, essentially. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, so you mentioned XRP, Ripple.

18:18Obviously, this is a very closely watched lawsuit here in the United States and around the world. What are your thoughts about the current status of that, the implications, and how broadly that ruling might or might not be interpreted in terms of the broader framework for the crypto space? It's a tough question, Ash. You know, I'm not an expert in that case. You know, you follow it because every time that you get something out of the courts, it will inform and create case law, you know, around the future of the rules that you have to go. And so I think we're hearing that we should get some feedback in the near future, possibly this year.

18:59The thing with courts is you really never know. You don't know how they're going to come out, how they're going to rule. and also known as the timing. So it's all things that we're going to watch. And as we get those outputs, we'll be able to, it'll help inform our perspective a little bit further. But at the end of the day, we want to be compliant. We want to follow the rules and we want to position this technology in a way that we can compete on a global scale. Yeah, talking about things that no one ever knows for certain, let's jump back to price here. Obviously Bitcoin above 30 ,000. And, you know, this definitely focuses the attention of the number go up crowd.

19:37It's a, you know, it's a four zeros at the end with a three in the beginning. This is something that folks focus on here. Let's talk about what you see some of those potential drivers as. You mentioned the macro environment, the macro space. Talk a little bit about what some of those specific drivers are that you see from a macro perspective driving price higher right now. Yeah, I think a lot of crypto people will talk about the money printer, right? And when is the money printer coming back on? And, you know, as we talked about earlier, Ash, you know, I don't know if you did you see Bologi's prediction about a million dollar Bitcoin here coming up three months?

20:16In 90 days. Yeah, so we're getting there. My sense is we're probably not going to make it to a million, but I think the narrative is that because of this pressure that we continue to see in the space, particularly if you look at some of the stress in the banking sector, I'm not going to say that the money printer is going to go burr like you hear on Twitter, but there is definitely an expectation that this very, very hawkish rates regime that we've been seeing, there needs to be a change because they're starting to see pressure really build up on the system. And again, that really plays into the strength of crypto.

20:55Let's talk about that and let's explain it and not take for granted that anyone has experience in this. Let's first talk about and define and quantify what's happening in the banking sector, what some of those potential instabilities might be, and then why, particularly for people who don't have backgrounds in macro, We might then see accommodative monetary policy to attempt to support the banking sector and why that might be, as you say, money printer go burr. Yeah, so I think based on a lot of legacy regulations, including Basel, banks had invested in long dated treasury bonds. And a lot of those treasury bonds were held to maturity, so they didn't have to mark them to market.

21:34And that was fine. The problem is, as the rates curve started inverting and short-term money market rates went up, I'm oversimplifying by far. You saw a departure. Well, first off, banks started taking some losses as deposits started to leave. We saw that with Silicon Valley Bank. And as those losses were crystallized, they had to remark that book. And what happened was you had a lot of concern around the banking sector and the fact that a lot of losses had built up because as those assets had to be pulled out, the long-dated treasuries were marked down and banks had a lot of losses on their books.

22:17Now, in the context of this inverted rates curve, now we're seeing money markets that are paying pretty nice rates. If you take a dollar and you invest it in a bank or you put it in a money market fund, the difference in those rates are very material. And so now post this little crisis, we continue to see, we believe, outflows out of the banking sector and those deposits into things such as money market funds. And that's going to hurt over time bank business models, and it's going to put a continued pressure because of that inverted rates curve. And so, you know, my sense is that over time, you know, it's going to put a ton of pressure on banks.

22:55And then, of course, you know, the banks are going to have to be reserved even more capital against the stresses that we saw, including, you know, the rate stresses that we saw, something called duration risk as the long dated treasuries came under pressure for price. And so, you know, the Fed's probably going to have to take that into consideration in the rates regime. And to the extent that rates come down and the dollar becomes more weak, crypto tends to respond very positively. Yeah, and I mean, the key driver here, I'm not sure we can bring this chart up, but I'm looking at effective federal funds rate.

23:31And what you see, obviously, from the 2008 period to about 2016 is interest rates at or near the zero lower bound. the 2016 through 2019 regime, a slow increase in rates. And then we get COVID and boom, we're back down to zero for 2020 through mid-2022. And now we're in this position where about a year ago, almost exactly, in fact, we start to see this steep increase in rates, effective federal funds rate coming up, well, the upper limit now at 5%, 475 to 500 basis points on the federal funds rate target. This obviously is the driver of everything that you've just discussed, this idea of rates going down to zero, ultra-accommodative monetary policy, and then inflation rears its incredibly ugly head as we've seen the pain that that's caused throughout the system.

24:25And the question right now, the open question on the table, what's causing these headwinds that are essentially the driver for this very sort of detailed, nuanced process that unfolds is the perception that the Fed is going to have to loosen because, as they say in the business, the Fed will hike until things break. Well, a lot of stuff broke. That's what we're dealing with right now, Ash. So again, But if you start looking back at some of the fundamentals going on in crypto, it's not just about, hey, it's crypto, so it's going to do great because macro is shifting. Now, that's an absolute input.

25:05But we're seeing real building happening across the board, going back to we've got venture strategies. We continue to see incredible projects being built, incredible founders coming to the table. Even in the absence of great regulatory clarity, we're seeing building happening, a ton of infrastructure projects coming online. building faster, cheaper, more effective blockchains, building out infrastructure around messaging. We're seeing gaming come online. I think I saw a release that over 700 games were released in the last year or so. Web3 gaming will be a game changer. We're seeing DeFi springing back to life.

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25:45Yeah, Treasury recently put out a piece on DeFi. We should talk about it. But we're seeing incredible building. And despite the macro noise, despite regulatory things happening, building is happening, building continues to occur, and we're seeing value being created every single day. We can talk about the Treasury report in just a minute, but let's talk a little bit about more in detail about the venture fund side of what you guys do, what you see. What do you feel the most enthusiasm about? Where is your conviction highest right now in this space? You mentioned infrastructure. You mentioned messaging.

26:23What are the types of applications out there, the types of projects and protocols out there that you see that you have a high conviction in and why? Yeah, like I've said in the past, we look across numerous different verticals all across Web3 in our strategies. We will look at things such as gaming to infrastructure to DAOs. The intersection of AI and blockchain is fascinating. My partner or founder, Jake Brugman, is an absolute thought leader on there. We put out a blog a while back, and that's an area of exploration that we believe is going to be just massive. We'll look at the intersection of things such as ESG and blockchain.

27:04Look, from an infrastructure perspective, we're seeing numerous projects, layer two scaling. We're seeing bridging capabilities, cross-chain interoperability, a ton of building going on there. And so I think we recently announced a round that we led with a company called Li-Fi, which is fantastic. I think the gaming sector, as I mentioned, you know, there's been this ongoing challenge with, you know, I think gaming came into the space. A lot of gamers revolted. But now I think there's you're starting to see products being shipped and user experiences really being improved. And so we just had a had one of our partners out at a conference out in California.

27:48Incredible momentum in that space as well. on the ai side you know the amount of discussion uh and controversy that we're starting to see emerge in ai yeah look i think it's a lot like crypto you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube it's here right the question is is how do we use it how do we engage with it how do we make our lives better using ai and we believe blockchain is going to have a really important point uh to making this right now do you want to see ai being built on closed systems and trained in the interest of centralized entities, or do you want to see AI being built in a way that's more open source and leverages decentralized technologies?

28:31Obviously, we prefer the latter. And so I think these discussions and this intersection is going to be just an incredibly exciting part of the future. And it's an area that we're focusing on quite a bit. Hey, let's talk a little bit about that intersection. What do you see that looking like? What are the next steps? And what do you think, if there will be one, the next killer application could be for that union, that intersection between blockchain technology and AI tech? Yeah. I mean, when you think about it, you almost think about it in terms of, you know, we're human beings. We can walk from point A to point B.

29:11But then we came up with horses. We could do a little bit better. And then we came with cars. We can go really, really fast. and almost AI is going to help us, you know, not with being able to move, but with our brains, right? We have these iPhones now that we look at all the time and they help us, you know, access data. We're going to take that to the next level. We're going to be able to use AI to assist us to do things faster, cheaper, and more effectively. Again, when you think about it in the context of blockchain and decentralized and open source, you know, the technology will hold promise to the extent that the data is available, opened, and trained in a very transparent manner.

29:52All these principles are really blockchain decentralization principles, things like transparency and inclusivity. And so as we have that open source transparent means to bring data together and train it, probably more effective and potentially more, hopefully more ethical than doing that training and closed-end systems run by a corporation to try to present certain outputs. So it's certainly an exciting time, and it's something that we're going to continue to focus on. We have a blog on our website. People want to look at it. We would love to engage with them there. We did a Twitter Spaces last week as well on our weekly Twitter Spaces, which is recorded.

30:30It's a great conversation again with Jake Brookman. Are there any specific applications that you think are particularly promising between this sort of intersection of blockchain technology and AI. One of the things that I've seen discussed quite a bit is the idea of automated code audits and enhancing essentially the security of blockchains by having automated systems that can go through and search for vulnerabilities. I guess that becomes almost an arms race between the good guys and the bad guys attempting to find those vulnerabilities and exploit them first. But I'm curious if you have a view on potential applications of AI in the blockchain space.

31:07gosh I think it's going to be absolutely massive I think you're sure at a basic level you'll be able you know you hear people talking about oh you don't need to learn to code anymore because you know you just tell the AI to code for you I don't know if that's the best advice that I would give my kid but but think if you can be able to create environments whether it's you know look look for bugs and and identify those things absolutely awesome use case but what if you thought bigger and you said okay um make me a game um and and i wanted to have these properties and these specific people and and i wanted to be able to do this um i think the time to market with many of these applications will be increased very very um will be significantly increased right because you know like you think about gaming it takes years often to bring a good game to the extent that you're able to do something and say well i want this customized experience go i mean we've all played with gpt4 it's it's amazing how fast um you can produce and ship um things and it's only going to get better hey everyone we're going to take another quick break and hear a word from our partners we'll be right back to the real vision crypto daily briefing

32:20yeah i've been asking uh gpt4 to write code and it's pretty extraordinary to see just how quickly it cranks it out and how thoroughly commented is. That's a very sort of strange aspect of it. Look, I don't think anybody's kids today are going to need to worry about not having tech skills, not having coding skills. Maybe our grandchildren won't need them anymore. But for the time being, I think it's something that's not going away anytime soon. You know, there's this interesting phrase that I keep hearing from people in the AI space, and it's clearly a marketing phrase, right? Like it's clearly something that they're using to try and reduce the anxiety around AI.

32:55And the phrase goes like this, you know, AI isn't going to take your job, but someone who knows AI may. And I think like, look, obviously there's a sort of nakedly self-serving element in that, right, which is come learn our technology so that you don't get replaced. The reality is this technology is going to be massively labor saving. But, you know, that means if you if you work in a department and there are 10 lawyers, maybe there are three or four and they're all going to be using AI. This clearly presents some significant macroeconomic challenges in terms of employment, in terms of pricing.

33:29I mean, all these sort of macroeconomic variables are going to get reshuffled by this pretty dramatically. But in the short term, this isn't the kind of thing that's going to eliminate entire categories of jobs. But it certainly looks, at least based on my experience of reading about it, reading the research and playing around with it, it certainly seems as though it's going to dramatically change job descriptions in the near term. You know, when we were growing up, Ash, we didn't have YouTube content creators as a profession, right? I think to your point, there's going to be an entire new employment opportunities for people who can leverage AI to gain outputs.

34:06Like you see these people who are able to interface so naturally with AI and unpack new applications that many of us haven't even thought of. I think you're going to see it unlocked. You know, not only I think there'll be a lot of employment opportunities, not just risk. Yeah, totally new jobs, totally new types of applications for it. And by the way, it also bears repeating. What we're looking at right now is like version 0.0.1. this technology is going to get a lot better, a lot more elegant, a lot faster, and it's going to happen very quickly. I mean, it's just incredible how quickly chat GPT, a phrase that no one had heard outside of AI, you know, maybe six months ago now, suddenly is the most important story in the technology world.

34:50Yeah, totally. Couldn't agree more. Yeah. So let's jump back here and talk a little bit about something you mentioned earlier, which is the DeFi report from Treasury. Interesting story there. And some folks have been framing it as a warning shot. Obviously, something that Treasury has reasserted, the necessity, the primacy of AML-KYC. What's your take, by the way, for those who don't know, who haven't worked in banking, that's anti-money laundering, know your client. Talk a little bit about what your interpretations were on that report. First, give a brief overview for folks who may not have seen it yet.

35:27Yeah, sure, Ash. So Treasury is responsible for things such as OFAC. And one of the things that they want to make sure is that – That's the Office of Foreign Asset Control, the primary sanctions regulator here in the United States at Treasury. Thanks for that. And one thing that I think most people don't want is you don't want to get money into the hands of terrorists and bad people. And I was a U.S. Marine. I was on the wrong side of – plenty of terrorist attacks. have had friends that are killed by terrorists. I don't like it when terrorists have money. And I saw some reports within the recent CFTC suit against finance where there's talk about, well, it only costs, you can barely buy an AK with that.

36:11But if you've been on the other side of that AK like I have, you just don't like it when they're funded with any amount of money. So that said, side treasury did an analysis of DeFi and they ascertained that yes you know we are seeing some bad actors using DeFi and you know the point is is like okay we I totally appreciate that but guess what hate to break it terrorists also use the internet and they also use dollars as well and so how do we step back and look at the nuance of this and there were some really good things in the Treasury Report, they talked about how can we use ZK proofs or zero-knowledge proofs, this technology that we're seeing take hold at a rapid pace in Web3.

36:54Explain what that is for folks who may not know, because it's a very powerful technology. Yeah, so ZK proofs are a way where you can cryptographically prove something without revealing the contents on the chain, in short. And so you can think about an application where a person needs to certify themselves as credentialized or has their AML or KYC checked. And they can do that without revealing all their personal information to everyone. And you can use that ZK proof to represent throughout the system effectively that they are KYC. I think about this as in maybe the simplest terms is being able to demonstrate that you know something without revealing what that something is.

37:39one of the metaphors that you hear for this is a driver's license when you have to go into a bar and prove that you're 21. Not that that's happened to me for a while, but when you have to go in and prove you're 21, you have to show your license, right? And it shows your address, it shows your date of birth, it shows a lot of things about you, your driver's license number that you might not want to reveal. So the metaphor here is what you could do is just have a system that sits between the bouncer and the driver's license that just says, hey, yep, this guy is 21, this gal is 21, go on in. And that's kind of the metaphor that we use.

38:09By the way, I had a conversation with Silvio McCallie about this, who works on the project Algorand right now. But in the 1980s, I believe, was one of the mathematicians who actually created the mathematics around the foundations of zero-knowledge proofs. So it's obviously a rich topic. Yeah, totally. So anyway, Treasury talked about the fact that we need to be very mindful. There's a lot of talk about this centralized versus decentralized. They talk about DeFi services is really not following in certain cases best in class. I think for most of the crypto native folks, it's very important to separate people and entities from protocols.

38:46And that's one thing that we'll continue to talk through. A protocol is a protocol. It's like the internet. If a person violates a law, it's one thing, but how can a protocol, how can computer code violate anything? So that's something that we're going to have to unpack and work with them in time. The other thing that's important to me to note is that, like it or not, DeFi right now is pretty small. It's like$40 billion in total value locked, which is one measure that we look at. And of that, if you look at chain analysis, I think they said that 0.24 % of all transactions were illicit. And so when you step back, the actual amount of nefarious activity is pretty small in DeFi compared to where we're seeing it in other markets.

39:26And so what I want to do is make sure that people understand, look, this is something that's important. We need to get it people, we need to make sure we're very mindful of code and how it's very difficult to regulate code itself. But the more important thing is we're also seeing a lot of development across the globe with this thing we called CBDCs, Central Bank Digital Currencies. And as non-US adversaries start building these things, the capability to evade a sanctions regime is much, much greater if a government is building a CBDC rather than messing around with this tiny 40 billion TVL DeFi industry.

40:11So again, let's really focus on first principles and that's a much bigger threat. And my personal conclusion is that stable coins, private stable coins are the solution here. We have such an opportunity as a country to invest in private stable coins. It's great for the issuer. because people give you money, you buy those treasuries, those short-dated treasuries, which will make you a nice coupon. You issue a token, which that user can then move throughout the world, reducing remittances by like 80%. And in many cases, it's programmable. And if you're sitting in a developing country, would you rather have dollars or would you rather have the currency of one of our adversaries?

40:53I'd say you probably want dollars. So I think and I'm hopeful that policymakers will focus on good stablecoin legislation and regulation as a means to really address the threat to sanctions, which I think are adversarial CBDCs. And by the way, it works much better when there's a little bit of juice, a little bit of yield in those treasuries. Totally, totally. Hey, just to underline something that you said earlier about the size, 40 billion TVL, total value locked in DeFi. Just to give people a little bit of context on this, the market cap of Apple right now is$2.5 trillion. So, you know, obviously putting it in context, I know it's a very large stock, but it is just one stock.

41:35And when you think about the scale of what's happening elsewhere, this is still relatively small. By the way, another interesting point that the report makes from Treasury is that most of the illicit activity certainly takes place in banknotes and currencies and not in DeFi applications. So it's interesting because you have this very small, obviously, potential for a great deal of growth for both good and ill. Yeah, I think that's 100 percent right. And look, we're also seeing very exciting technologies coming online. Again, they talked about the ZK technology that people are using. This whole concept of certified credentials is something that I think will take hold and will drive liquidity.

42:19There are two ways that we're seeing that take hold. One is via things such as like soulbound NFTs where you can represent throughout the ecosystem that you are a good actor. Or we're also seeing the launch of ecosystems like I know Avalanche has their subnets. They had a release yesterday called Evergreen, where they're bringing in institutional counterparties which have gone through those compliance checks. And so that's another theme that we continue to see. I think over time, you'll definitely see some liquidity migrate to those types of fully compliant type ecosystems. Yeah, by the way, talking about stablecoins, something that's just breaking here as we have this conversation around noon Eastern time is the IMF putting out statement about the notion that essentially that stablecoins and what they call crypto conglomerates, by the way, this is breaking news.

43:10I'm just reading this off the news feed right now. This is Coindesk reporting on this. Should have bank style capital requirements in addition to AML KYC. I'm not exactly sure what that means, but it certainly sounds like IMF is implying here that the effective operating standards that apply to traditional finance need to be applied in the digital asset space. You know, they say same risk, same regulation. I don't agree with that. I think it's the same principles that need to be followed. That doesn't entirely make sense to me. And I would really like to understand the nuance because typically we have a fractional banking system where most of the stable coins that I see are fully reserved.

43:52And so I personally probably would not want to apply a banking model to stable coins. I would like to see something that's much more reserved. And so that's where the nuance comes in. And I think would love to have that conversation with some other experts to see how we can get it right. But generally speaking, I don't think there's a ton of disagreement around making sure that if you're issuing a stablecoin, that those assets are backed and safe. Now, we saw some issues recently with this banking turmoil where one of the providers had a bunch of their capital locked up in a bank. It wasn't the stablecoin issuer.

44:33This is USDC that you're referring to. Yeah. I mean, the issue was around SVB weakness. So, you know, we need to find a way to make sure that assets that, you know, are collected are safe, whether they're using traditional rails or crypto rails. You know, we're also seeing, you know, the NEC said on the 27th of January, they want to keep crypto and banking separate. Again, I see it a little bit differently. I see we need to focus on the same principles of better technology, more inclusive technology, more transparent technology. So I'm still trying to get my head around that one. But my initial blush is, no, we don't want the same rules to apply to stablecoin issuers and banks.

45:18You know, we can even make those rules even more robust and clear. And, you know, we've seen some weakness in banking sector, the banking sector recently. Don't want to introduce that to stablecoins. Yeah, and by the way, we should say the NEC is the National Economic Council. This is a council that advises the president. It is seen as part of the executive branch. So the question is to what extent that notion of keeping crypto separate from the banking system is a position that is represented by the Biden administration. Yeah. And again, same risk, same regulation. It doesn't really make sense because they don't oftentimes, they're not the same.

45:55But let's focus on principles and hopefully we get to a good place. Hey, a little bit of clarity on that IMF statement. And I think it's part, so right now, for folks who don't follow the macro side, there are meetings taking place in Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund every year does these April meetings. And this is a report that they publish. It's called the GFSR, at least it's how it's known in the space, the Global Financial Stability Report. This has been a prominent feature of the IMF annual meetings since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. And apparently, this is embedded in the report, this notion of similar capital requirements for digital assets to traditional financial assets.

46:32Yeah, and again, very supportive of very rich capital requirements for stablecoin issuers. That makes a ton of sense to me. Yeah, it is interesting. You mentioned, obviously, the main wildcard in this situation right now are CBDCs, Central Bank Digital Currencies, and what the relationship from CBDCs to private sector stablecoins will be. What's your sense of what's happening here in the United States and in Europe on the stablecoin development front, as well as the potential for CBDCs and how those two might interact? It's a great question, and I don't think we have all the answers yet, Ash. The Chinese, I think, have really piloted a lot of their focus on CBDCs, where you have a CBDC and you have a wallet.

47:23And I think you can use a CBDC as an instrument of control. I mean, it's programmable, and you could come up with a situation where you have a sales score, you have a CBDC. the two reconcile and and off you go the key to effective cbdc is privacy and if you have the question is is how do you have assurances around privacy that therein lies the issue and i think that's what's going to be the core challenge in the united states is how do i know that nobody is monitoring how i'm spending my money and how are they how do i know that they're not going to restrict the means upon which I spend my money.

48:04And that privacy issue will be the third rail as we start thinking through the policies around launching such a token. Now, we also have a very robust private market. Again, I think private stablecoins seem to me like a pretty good deal if you're the US government, because you have these rules. We talked about having capital-like rules, typically where you have to buy highly liquid either treasuries or hold in cash. Governments generally like that. And provided that there are safety and soundness and robust controls around holding those assets, I think that's a very, very nice alternative to a CBDC.

48:49Personally, I'm more in the favor of a private solution here. And I think time will tell on how it plays out. What are our values? And is privacy of value in the United States? I think it is, and I think it should be embraced. But we'll see how it plays out. It's going to be an interesting path forward. What do you think? Well, it's interesting. As you describe it, you almost frame it up as the private sector CBDCs, excuse me, private sector stablecoins as a bulwark against de-dollarization, the idea that the government would be very much in favor of anything that preserved and extended the dollarization regime as practiced around the world today into the digital asset era.

49:32Totally. I think if you want to perpetuate the US dollar as a reserve currency, stable coins are the way to go. I mean, like I said, if you're sitting in a developing world in Africa, Venezuela, would you rather have, what asset do you really want to hold on to? Probably dollars. And it also comes down to this utility use case, right? You want to make sure that the assets that you hold, you have there's utility and you deliver utility. Crypto is oftentimes criticized for its failure to deliver utility. Well, stable coins are staring you in the face as one of the most useful applications of cryptocurrency technology out there.

50:09FX markets trade$7.2 trillion per day. It takes forever, sometimes it feels, when you're taking risk for them to settle, like you're trying to settle with instantly with anyone in the world, it eliminates risk. It eliminates Herstat risk, which we call it. It's based on settlement. So, yeah, look, stablecoins bring incredible utility. They're an incredible opportunity, great business opportunity, also great instrument of national security, I believe, and I really hope we get it right. Yeah, Herstat risk is something you know a lot about from your past life. But listen, the use case for the dollar is pretty clear.

50:47You mentioned places where dollars are currently held in banknotes today in currency. The idea that folks who are holding banknotes in U.S. dollars, particularly to protect against hyperinflation when they're trapped in countries that do not have a stable store of value, obviously something that would just be immensely helpful and an incredibly important use case. Chris, we've got questions flowing in from the Real Vision website from YouTube. Let's jump in and take a few of those. Awesome. Okay, first one comes from Manus on the Real Vision website. Will an increase in staking drop the yield?

51:22What could impact look like? This is a really interesting question about the supply and demand dynamics of what's happening right now in the Ethereum space. It's a really, really good question. So yield is a function really of two things within Ethereum. It's a function of the number of validators and the amount of token staked. And it's also transaction fees. So as more validators come online, you could see the share of those emissions come down. So staking yields could come down slightly. But the thing about staking is that there's also a transactional fee element to it. And so if you're a validator, you stand to gain more when there's more activity within Ethereum.

52:06And so in a way, that staking rate is a function of the amount of activity on the network plus the number of validators. So yeah, if more validators come on, you could see that yield come down. But as more transactions happen, you could see that yield go up. Great question. Yeah, here's another great question. This one comes to us from Gary on the Real Vision website. With the current rulings on the crypto space in the U.S., do you have a view on the crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini? Yeah, you know, we're clients of some of those. They, I think like we said earlier, there's going to be an equilibrium that's established.

52:52And so the Coinbase legal team is very, very good. They're very competent. And when I deal with them, they're very, very thoughtful. I'm familiar with their listening process. They take incredible care and diligence as they go through their analysis across the Howey test, et cetera. And so we look forward to a time when that equilibrium is reached. And hopefully it's done in a very transparent way so that we understand, ultimately, as they go through this process, we're left with rules of the road that we can all follow. And so, yeah, it's unfortunate. You know, we read what everybody else reads on Twitter.

53:36And what we're hopeful for is a successful outcome where there's clarity and we'll build from there. Boy, this is a sophisticated question from Todd G on the Real Vision website. Why do we need ZK Tech? And they go on to ask, isn't that doable with a Merkle tree? By the way, for those who don't know, Merkle Tree is a computer science construct where you essentially have hashes taking place at the root level, and then you continue to hash those hashes as you move down the tree. So it allows you to then roll up and know that nothing has been changed along the way. Chris, this is a tough question.

54:13I'm glad this one's for you and not for me. No, I mean, why is anything necessary in this space? We're pretty agnostic to technologies. We do see a lot of momentum in the ZK space. And we will, I think you explained it best, Ash, on some of the applicability. We're at the beginning. Technology is evolving very, very quickly. And, you know, we can put folks in touch with some of our technical analysts who get into the weeds on the various differences. But, you know, at the end of the day, we're multi-chain in our outlook. We think that competition is a good thing and we're very supportive of any technology that brings about incremental scale, incremental utility, incremental privacy, and we'll evaluate all of those technologies.

55:01So I don't have a good answer as far as why do we need one or the other. The question is, what do they deliver and how can they attract true utility and deliver value into the space? By the way, I know I'm getting over my skis on this, Taji, but I'll take a shot at it. I think that essentially what Merkle trees do is establish a current state for the existing system that allows you to see whether or not you've had modifications in a past state. The idea of zero knowledge proofs is that it allows you to ask novel questions about the current state of a blockchain. But again, this is very technical stuff.

55:39And we should have someone on to talk about this in a little bit more detail in the future. I find zero knowledge proofs to be one of the most interesting sort of philosophically, as well as in terms of the practical applications for this technology that we see coming down the pike. Here's one from Degen Radio on YouTube. This is a question in two parts with two acronyms in it. How are regulators going to view LSD? Those are liquid staking derivatives, not the hallucinogen. And is it possible that they will see all POS tokens as a security? Yeah. So I really can't stand this idea of LSD, this acronym LSD.

56:20And sometimes we shoot ourselves in the foot by using it. Not only because it can mean something else in other contexts, but it's not a derivative, right? Derivatives are fully regulated. And whether it's crypto or not, like look at Dodd-Frank or Amir, derivatives are regulated. To me, this is not a derivative. When you deposit your ETH and you pull out staked ETH, it's not a derivative of the ETH. To me, it's a swap, right? I shouldn't even use swap because that means something else in traditional markets. It's an exchange of token for token, right? It's a trade. And to me, it's not a derivative whatsoever because it subjects you to an entire set of laws and regulations that you don't want to be subject to.

57:00As far as proof of stake, right? There's people that are saying, well, since Ethereum migrated from proof of work where miners had to do these mathematical calculations to proof of stake, that's transformed it now into something else and regulators have issue with that. And we've heard those musings in different places. Look, from my perspective, proof of stake was a very incredible accomplishment for the Ethereum community. It reduced the energy footprint. And many of the regulators, if you talk to many regulators, you know, around the country and the world, they'll tell you that their top priority is climate change.

57:39That's a fact. That's what they'll tell you. And so that's that should be very welcome and positive. Right. Whether you agree with it or not. Yeah. Whether you agree with it or not. If you ask them, they'll tell you my priority is climate change. And I've had the conversation with numerous senior regulators. OK, well, we check the box there. And then really, it just goes over back to what we were saying earlier. Wouldn't it be wonderful to have empirical measures to ascertain which falls in which bucket? Personally, when you look at Ethereum, I think there's between 400 ,000 and 500 ,000 validators.

58:07It seems like it's pretty decentralized to me. Moreover, you have futures on Ethereum that have been in place for a long, long time listed in regulated markets called the CFTC. That precedent also helps solidify it in the commodities bucket. And then, of course, you have the recent action put forth by the CFTC where they say, wait a second, these five tokens are commodities subject to our jurisdiction. So I personally don't think that proof of stake subjects something based on what I've seen in the open source regulatory space to one jurisdiction or the other. Let's not call LSD LSD. Let's call it something different.

58:47and to me it's not a derivative. And so such it's not a derivative, it's something else that should be considered as such. Yeah, this idea of empirical metrics that can be objectively evaluated to make an understanding of what is what in the space is something that's just so desperately needed. Okay, next question comes to us from Amo on YouTube. The question is, any thoughts on DEXs and attempts at regulation? This of course is decentralized exchanges. Chris, what are your thoughts there? It's a really good question. It really comes down to what type of a DEX. I think in the derivative space, derivatives are largely regulated.

59:25DEX is less so. I think, again, you know, we talk about what are some of the challenges of a DEX. AML, KYC, right? right? Should it be the DEX's responsibility to ensure that there's AMLKYC, or should it be the users? And I think the first question is, if you look at the Treasury report, is it DEX to DEX? Is it decentralized? Is it truly decentralized? If it is, then it's really the onus on compliance is upon those people that use the system. So to the extent something is sufficiently decentralized, its code, hopeful that it's treated as such. To the extent something is centralized, obviously those folks that control any kind of exchange will be subject to law and regulation, and they need to make sure they're familiar with their jurisdiction.

1:00:14At the end of the day, I'm very excited about the deck space. I look forward to a world that is inclusive, that allows people to directly access markets and to express their risk views. But once something is centralized, it needs to abide by those principles that will be expected. So, yeah, interesting landscape. If you look, there's a massive focus. Again, what are the measures that make something decentralized or centralized? Who owns the tokens? Who controls the tokens? These are all things that need to be considered as you look at that. Yeah, final question. This is a big picture one that comes to us on YouTube from Wants to Comment.

1:00:55The question is this, what will be the impact of Mika final vote this month? Obviously, this talking about the regulation for crypto in Europe, a huge and potentially comprehensive solution. What are your thoughts about the broader impacts of Mika in Europe and around the world? I think it's a shot heard around the world. I think it's very exciting for the Europeans, 27 member states, right? If you look at derivatives, I think it took them over five years. Don't quote me on it, but it took them years to catch up to the United States and the regulation. Here, they're leading the way. And what's it going to do?

1:01:34It's going to spring the UK into action, particularly in the context of Brexit. Those two jurisdictions will continue to try to assert themselves, not only as a leader in finance, but as a leader in Web3. And I think they both see tremendous opportunities. So expect to see more and more out of the UK as they galvanize to come up with a regime that competes, that effectively competes with the EU when it comes to Web3. And then you'll see jurisdictions like Singapore, you know, say, wait a second, we're going to have to have a regime as well. This is all happening. It's all happening in real time.

1:02:09And again, like we get very myopic in the United States sometime and focused on some of our challenges. But overseas, I think jurisdictions see the opportunity set. They see, well, this was what happened to us in Web 2. We're going to learn from our experience in Web 2 and really build Web 3 by differentiating with very strong regulation and policy. Chris, fantastic conversation, as it always is when you join us here on Real Vision Crypto. Final thoughts, key takeaways. I know we've covered a lot of ground here today. What would you like to leave our audience with? No, just thrilled to be on, Ash.

1:02:46Thanks for having me. You know, last year was a volatile year. This year, we're seeing very, very strong momentum. It feels like market cycles are starting to turn. And despite all of that, again, we're seeing really, really strong building. And so we're staying focused on the long term. We're working closely with our founders to help them navigate any challenges that they face. And we're seeing value accruing every single day. So always an honor to be on. Thanks for having me. Always a pleasure to have you. And it's great to have you come back on a regular cadence. We really appreciate it. Thanks again, Chris.

1:03:23Have a great day. That's it for today. Remember to sign up for Real Vision Crypto. It's free. Go to realvision.com forward slash crypto. That's realvision.com forward slash crypto. We'll be having these conversations every weekday going forward. We're very excited about that. And we have some fantastic guests lined up. John Deaton will be with us tomorrow to discuss crypto's fight with the SEC. Join us live at 9 a.m. Pacific time, noon Eastern or 5 p.m. if you're in London. Thanks for watching, everybody. Have a great day. What's up, revolutionaries? Thanks for tuning in to the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

1:04:02For more content like this, head over to realvision.com and get unfiltered access to the very best, brightest, and biggest names in finance.

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