Crypto Banter: Ran Neuner and Raoul Pal Talk Alt-Coins

0:01Look, we may not be at weekly highs, but we definitely should celebrate the week that we've just had. It was definitely the first week of the bull market where we can clearly say that we're in a raging bull market. And I think we're in the beginning of a bull market. But what's going to happen now is I think we're only about 25 % of the way into the bull market. And the rest of this bull market goes up really, really, really fast. We've had the tame part of the bull market and the rest of the bull market goes up very fast. Now, a lot of questions. How high will we go? How long will this bull market run?

0:34what are going to be the top three four five coins that are going to perform in this bull market that is what we're going to be discussing today today i've got a massive massive banter for you i've got a big friend of the channel here joining us but ral paul joining us and we're going to talk about everything to do with this raging bull market today is going to be a massive massive i'm going to say it again massive show so let's go let's do this

1:12As I said, we're not at the weekly highs, but we've had an amazing week. And if I would have told you that Solana would be in the 40s or late 30s at the end of the week, you would have laughed at me. And if I would have told you that Bitcoin would be around 35 ,000 or 34 ,000, you would have laughed at me. yet here we are and we should be celebrating we should be celebrating the month that we've had we should be celebrating the week that we've had but most of all we should be celebrating the fact that guys we are finally after 770 days we are finally in the raging bull market and today we're going to talk only about one thing we're only talking about the raging bull market how long it'll last how how big it's going to be how much money we're going to make how high solana is going to go and i think real paul's got an amazing solana prediction and i wonder if it's anything similar to my prediction.

1:56But before we get into the main show, first of all, if you're not a subscriber to this channel, what are you waiting for? Subscribe. I'm going to wait. I'm going to wait. I'm waiting. Subscribe. All right. And if you are subscribed, just smash the like button, especially if you like what we're saying here today. Smash that like button, obliterate it. Let's get into the meat and potatoes of the show. Actually, in fact, one more little announcement. if you haven't already voted in our winner bitcoin competition go and vote go and vote so if you want to win a bitcoin it's so simple it's so simple all you need to do is open a crypto banter account at any of our exchanges using any of our referral links ryan mile any sheldon any referral link that you want even our school and if you don't have an account use the use these links over here to to get it to get the account um uh you can get huge sign up bonuses 30 000 dollars in Viber that's obviously the the main exchange that I trade on eight thousand dollars in BitGet, OKEx, CoinW if you're living in the states, BitGet if you're living in Canada and then every account allows you for five votes right and you can only make one vote a week so you better start get there and start voting to get five chances to win one full bitcoin no one in the world's going to give you the opportunity to win one full bitcoin so easily anyway with that said all right let's get Rell up onto the stage Rell how are you my friend you're starting to feel like a bull market out there, huh?

3:20It is. I'm back in Little Cayman. That was bull market backdrop. So yeah, it does. That is the true story. That is the bull market backdrop. And we were back there again. I remember that the pool table and the bar, real bull market stuff. But this week was like a week where for the first time, I actually felt, you know what, we're back in that raging bull market territory, right? Yeah. And as you and I've talked about, I still think it's crypto spring we're not yet in summer but you're just getting the later stages of spring where you start to have a few nice days in a row and it starts to feel good and you start to think about you know having drinks outside in the pub and uh you know doing things in the sun so that's that's with that point it usually really doesn't get going this is usually the prequel usually doesn't get going till summer of next year which is that kind of halving year that's when it that's but I think it goes like this almost every day for 18 months.

4:18Exactly. So I wanted to show you - It's got nice once to come in and go, oh my God, is that up that much? You know, it's good. I must say, so the first thing is I read this quote, which says an entire Bitcoin bear market is behind us and an entire Bitcoin bull market is ahead of us. And I just think that that is so like where we're at. But the same account, it's an account called Rick Capital. He says he believes that we're 26.5 % into the bull market, which means that there's 75 % odd left of this bull market. I mean, if you look at his drawings, the first 76.5 % is actually quite slow relative to the later stages of the bull market.

4:56That's right. I mean, is this, if I were to ask you how far into the bull market you believe we are, is this a fair representation? This exactly matches the business cycle framework that I've been using, the halving cycle framework. Look, I've been more erring towards a repeat of something like 2015 without that red herring of 2019. So I think, you know, we're at the stage where we're just kind of breaking out. Then we're likely to finish the year strong and then sideways for a while, sideways to down for a bit before it really gets going. So it's somewhere between the 2019 and the 2015-16 cycle.

5:39And what do you think happened this week? Like, why this week all of a sudden did we get this wake up? Did something change? Did liquidity change? Did policies change? Did what was it that, I mean, is there anything or was it just, we just, yeah, and that's it? It seems that there was some story that BlackRock had already bought some, you know, buffer so they can sell ETF when it comes out. But I don't think that's a lot. But there's clearly new capital come into the space. We saw it with CoinShares, a few others starting to report inflows of capital. So that's new money going into the economy.

6:18And obviously, a bunch of board degens turn it into a lot of price rises. But then we had the other story that ignited. So Bitcoin had been strong anyway because of the ETF. ETH has been kind of, it was okay, but it's been pretty sideways for a while. the thing that really started igniting was both defy stuff they came out of nowhere really rallying and that's often early season stuff and the other was obviously solana yeah well so the defy you can see if i look at the at the gains this week you can see solana is obviously the biggest but then you do see the the defy protocols you see iver you see you know all that all that i I saw Uniswap had a run.

7:00There it is to 10.7%. Curve had a run. I want to talk a little bit about Solana. We will go into the macro and we will talk about the macro. You were pretty bullish around Solana when we spoke last time. Now we've had the DevCon. I don't know how much you updated yourself around what happened at the DevCon. It was an amazing, amazing conference. Let me tell you. I'm actually still here in Amsterdam. I'll tell you what I saw. and then maybe I'd love to hear your views. But for one, I saw that the community is absolutely, absolutely thriving. And I came up with a metric of brains per square foot at the conference, brain power per square foot at the conference.

7:42And from a brain power per square foot at the conference, I don't think I've seen a conference like that since ETH DevCon in 2017, which is when the big brains of the Ethereum community actually arrived there. There were no retail investors. There was no fluff. There was no one talking about price. They came out and they spoke about real announcements. So every single announcement was a real announcement. Google was a real announcement. Visa was a real announcement. Render was a real announcement. AWS was a real announcement. There was no announcement that you could drill holes into. At the same time, they also came out with network upgrade announcements, which, you know, the biggest one of them was FireDance, which is going to give them up to a million transactions per second.

8:24Everyone thinks that that's where it stops, but that's not where it stops. It takes it one step further because FireDance is the last step in making Solana decentralized. Right now, there's only one Solana validator client, which is the Solana validator client that Solana wrote. Now, there's going to be a second one, which means that it's the first time that you've got a second validator client that can't be updated by the foundation, which means that it's really, really, really a decentralized protocol now that can do 1 million transactions per second on the main net without having to go into layer twos so i'm leaving here i'm leaving amsterdam tomorrow and i'm leaving here extremely bullish about solana extremely extremely bullish the way i see it if there's any protocol that is going to get that one consumer mass adoption product app it's going to be solana it's not going to be an e-clair too that's how i'm leaving here i know you weren't at the conference but i'm keen to to hear to hear your views so you're picking up exactly what my thesis has been and that thesis has been growing for about a year and a bit about i think solana's main thing is this consumer chain because it can do a lot um obviously when it sold off last year I was bought all the way through.

9:50And then I was, I started going down the fire dancer rabbit hole. And I'm like, okay, this is a game changer because Jump Trading who are building it, they have one constraint that they try and work to, which is speed of light. Because what they're trying to do is get that order in to the exchange and the prices out of the exchange as fast as possible ahead of all their competition. So there's that whole book, flash boys about this where it's all about the size and the quality of your fiber optic cable and how close you are to the exchange and then it's how fast your compute is so they fully understand this and they built it to be fast enough for high frequency trading okay now to for people to understand what a million tps means twitter is like 24 000 tps it's like whatsapp is like 40 ,000 TPS.

10:42It's like, this is a order of magnitude. A, it's 20X what Solana does, which is already the fastest chain. So the applications that's going to come out of this are game-changing. And it's kind of pushed apart the argument of the trilemma because it not only made it more secure, but cheaper and faster. So, okay, that's interesting because that was not supposed to be solvable. It feels to me like we're solving some of the blockchain trilemma. On top of that, compressed NFTs. To be able to create a million NFTs for a hundred bucks basically tells me that's ticketing. That's all sorts of stuff, receipts, anything.

11:31so you've created new business models that people don't understand exist yet i'm actually getting i'm actually getting something out on my phone um which which um which i which i managed to take at the conference and i actually think i want to read this out to you so if you want to mint 10 000 nfts on solana it'll cost you 18 bucks if you want to mint 10 000 nfts in ethereum it'll cost you$30 ,855. If you want to mint 10 ,000 NFTs on Polygon, it'll cost you$52.09. Okay, so when you scale that up to$10 million, on Solana, it'll cost you$5 ,219. On Ethereum, it'll cost you$31 million. And on Polygon, it'll cost you$52 ,087.

12:21So this is and this is before FireDance, by the way. This is before you implement FireDance, just to give you an idea of the power of this network. And this is why Visa are interested. This is why they're starting to have a lot of announcements because what they've built now is something truly extraordinary. And the price is truly extraordinary because nobody believed this. Exactly. They're so busy saying it's a FTX token. it's a sam coin it's going bust there's no devs it was all bullshit all the way through yeah yeah look we were we were obviously buying we were encouraging the community to buy we were unpopular for buying i mean i showed the community the trades that we actually took i'm interested i mean let's have some fun and i'm not going to hold you to any price predictions but when i look at the market cap of eth i think the market cap of eth today and i'm i'm reminding you that i say today because let's look at let's look at in the beginning of a cycle you know we can argue that This is probably the beginning of the altcoin cycle.

13:24The market cap of ETH is about$220 billion. The market cap of Solana is about$17 billion. So, you know, under the assumption we're going into a bull market, let's have some fun. And just like, where do you think Solana can go in this cycle? So how I've been thinking about it is looking at previous cycles, how high above the previous high it goes. Okay. so if we look at you know if you look at well if you're looking at solana now or you can look at ethereum in the previous cycle i think of solana very much like ethereum in 2017 okay let's get that chart out so that's that that is soul and souls going back let's go back to that that's east and let's go back to 2017 um yeah this kind of weekly it'll just make it quicker and easier yeah so 2017 okay to 1 ,640 the starting point was obviously the ico which was at a couple of cents i think seven cents and one cent um it went to about 1 ,640 the next cycle it went up to i think five thousand four hundred dollars five thousand dollars yeah so it was like a 3x above the all-time high yes so then what's the all-time high of solana it's about 200 270 yeah so you say okay a reasonable target would be 3x the all-time high okay so that would take solana to 600 which is a 12x now this is exactly my thesis so hear me out chat i think it's further than that potentially but who knows right we've all we've all learned from the previous bull market not to give price targets because people just want to beat you over the head with them yeah i mean we're just having some fun i mean just looking at some scenarios for me the way i looked at it i said look what if if solana just gets to 80 of ease what ease is now at the top of the cycle and if that happens solana gets to call it a 180 million dollar market cap which is about it which is you know i think today it's at a 15 so it's a 10x so what you're saying in terms of 600 i'm saying probably 500 400 500 so i think i think the numbers the numbers are there or they're about yeah and um you know obviously the numbers have changed dramatically because when i started looking at this it was it was trading 20 like 20 yeah we've already gone up a lot since then so these numbers keep halving every time you keep going up a lot but you know yeah my my my idea is somewhere between 500 and a thousand okay that's depending what that market feels like okay um do you see a world do you see the world like i see the world i see like top of this cycle bitcoin ethereum solana and then everything else underneath it the bnbs the the xrps the you know the only one the only one that i don't know is what's going to happen with stable coins but i think if we remove stable coins i kind of see it as like bitcoin in terms of honor i actually do too um which obviously means we're going to be blindsided by something else that's interesting that we didn't think of you know the solana of this cycle what is that going to be i'm not good enough to pick those you're better at picking the smaller stuff i just i'm you know with a macro bet like this it's like it's so much easier because like it's so fucking obvious um you know it survived a crisis it launches the tech goes massively improving the community's good the only on solana narrative is very good tolly is one of the best thought leaders in the entire space you're like okay this is it seems like the highest quality base.

17:14I did a show earlier this week for my community. And what I said is, you have like 500 days to make life-changing money in crypto. And when I say 500 days, that takes you to the top of the next bull market. And I said, look, the secret is that what you're going to do is you're going to have a fully diversified portfolio. You're going to put the majority of your chips into the tokens that you think are very safe. And this was the last ETF that we actually made. It was Bitcoin Ethereum Solana and we put 50 % of our money into Bitcoin Ethereum Solana. But then we had a few that actually exploded, like Casper exploded.

17:49And the$200 investment became worth$101 ,000. And the Kujira, a$300 investment became a$92 ,000 investment. So if you did that, your$10 ,000 became worth$400 ,000. And that's, I think, the importance of placing some small bets on the ones that you're pretty scared of. Yeah, but the other flip side of that, as I said, you're better at it than me, is I end up with the shrapnel of shame sitting in my wallet. That's fine. The things that I bought. And it is fine. It's like a VC. You don't know what's going to fly, what's not. I just never had any of those fly. So I've just got a bunch of shame sitting in various wallets.

18:32Okay. Now, look, we have caught one or two of them, but I guess we do spend a lot of our time actually analyzing those coins. So I think that that's pretty, you know, we look deep in the weeds. I think you take a much more macro approach. Yeah. And so I actually prefer to hyper concentrate. I'm like, I know the bet I want to take. I think it's a really high quality risk reward. I'm just going to take that bet. And what is the bet now? Is the bet Bitcoin, ETH, Solana? Is the bet Bitcoin, ETH, Solana and maybe one or two more? And just interested in how your crypto rates actually laid? Really, it's really Solana and ETH.

19:10Solana and ETH. Yeah, nothing else adds up to much. It's just Solana and ETH. And of which Solana is the larger bet. And interested to know why you didn't say Bitcoin. I haven't held much Bitcoin for a while because, you know, I look at this in terms of network effects. And, you know, my view is that more things are being built on Ethereum. It's a richer, deeper network. more use cases and over time, I think the value of the Ethereum network will be more valuable than the Bitcoin network unless something changes. Now, ordinals and stuff like that, maybe, let's see. And so it's just from that thesis alone that I haven't held much Bitcoin.

19:53I've just thought it'll underperform. Now, it always outperforms in crypto spring. The least risk asset in that space always outperforms at first. Then what happens as spring turns into summer you start getting outperformance of alts and particularly the large alts first and then the smaller alts later so there's nothing unusual about what's going on also very interesting to see the chart of soul um of eth bitcoin you know kind of long-term weekly chart it's been a very interesting yeah that right that to me is an incredibly interesting chart because i actually draw the wedge coming up from 2017 low to the 2020 lows hold on i think right i think this is your chart right is this there's not that one this is the bigger one than that so go back to your chart uh okay there it is okay just draw a trend line from the 2017 low 2017 low so you want it from there yeah okay let's draw that trend line over there this is what i'm really interested in holy shit this is right this is a fucking massive wedge pattern now i put it on a log chart on the log scale okay let me quickly put it onto a log it is on it is on it is a log so i mean this is a big level for each yeah and we're putting in the stuff that i look at Demark indicators, everything else, they're suggesting the low comes this week, next week, the week after.

21:26So I'm thinking that the narrative around ETH is going to be wrong. It's going to catch people offside. People have basically, because there's been no new money in the space, so they've sold their ETH to buy Bitcoin. Okay. The ETF, right? And this point in the cycle. Makes sense. Fine. Then what happens is the ETF is announced what is everybody going to do after the bitcoin etf is announced buy it they're going to buy it because that because because because the sec can't actually decline an eth etf because they've approved an eth futures etf and if they did that would be capricious and what's the other word the fancy word that the judge used it would be capricious if if they did that right exactly so So every trader is going to switch their bet from Bitcoin to ETH.

22:19And that changes the dynamic. Now, ETH has been kind of, as I said, struggling around a bit. But once it clears 1900, it gets really interesting. I think I put a chart yesterday on the ETH chart on my Twitter feed. And then you said it's a gorgeous chart. Is this the one? Yeah. Tell me why it's such a gorgeous chart. I mean, you tweeted and you said, this is a gorgeous chart. So what we've got is, it's an Elliott Wave chart, and it's a beautiful technical pattern of this lovely kind of flag. So Elliott Wave, you tend to get five wave advances, ABC declines in a bull market. So you had this wave up one, it retraces all the way back down, doesn't make a new low, that's a wave two.

23:05Then you start on what is a wave three. Wave threes are the big dynamic waves. but within that breaks down to sub waves so this was wave one wave two was the correction and now if you break that you go into what's known in the most exciting thing of elliott wave is a three of three that's where you get the double acceleration point what we've just seen in solana feels like it's going to happen in e particularly now everybody's underweighty people have seen the solana move um let's say the bitcoin etf comes you break that trend line which is about 1900. And before you know it, you're on your way to two and a half thousand and beyond.

23:45And you think when that happens, ETH serves as a proxy for altcoins? Or do you think the days of ETH serving as a proxy for altcoins are now finished? Probably finished. I think altcoins have their own cycle. If you remember back to last time around, it was DeFi that came to life first, seeing that now. Yes. I think that Solana, like the standout, like ETH last time around, that comes up and everyone goes, okay, this is interesting. ETH should do really well. And then there'll be a lag before the real altcoin cycle starts. But that's coming soon as well. Even the wedge of altcoin market cap on TradingView is breaking out of a perfect wedge.

24:25What do you make of crypto's decorrelation from markets very recently? So actually, I traced back the date at which this happened. It happened on the 16th of October. So on the 16th of October, Bitcoin decorrelated from markets and started to be a lot more correlated towards gold. So you can see over here that it happened exactly, actually, it happened exactly, exactly, exactly on the 16th of October. So you know what else happened on the 16th of October? Larry Fink said that Bitcoin was a flight to, that crypto was a flight to safety. That happened on the 16th of October. Look, it may be coincidental i'll give it that it could have been coincidental but from that there we've had a decorrelation between bitcoin and and the stock markets and i was messing around with some charts so i charted the bitcoin price against the qqq which is this chart over here that's bitcoin against qqq i charted bitcoin against the nikai um and you can see it's pretty much the same pretty much you can see it's the same chart so you've got you've got what do you make of this decorrelation of Bitcoin from markets?

25:34I think it was around the time Larry was saying what he said, the markets were starting to figure out that the real problem was this excess supply issuance of bonds and that inflation wasn't going up, but bond yields kept rising. and it was that moment that gold and crypto picked up very quickly is that the more bond yields go up the more they started going up that correlation changed and that correlation was driven by the fact i think that the market knew if bond yields are going to go up like this the fed or the government or somebody's going to intervene so you get closer to the cowbell the stimulus, somebody's going to do something.

26:24So I think that was a really big factor in it. And things started taking off. It's like, okay, if this bond market's going to get out of control, then you need to hide somewhere. And also, you know, the banks had started going down again as well, if you remember. Yes, period. I think they started breaking down a bit. Let me see when that date was. Yeah, October 16th, like the banks had this little peak and then started dropping like a stone. And so, again, the market's job is to forecast the probability of stimulus or a flight to safety. And Bitcoin always does well out of it. So that's why I think started it off.

27:04And I think Larry saying the same thing around the same time that the banks turned around, you know, also adds fuel to the fire. I don't know if there's any economic data out that day, but there was probably something around that as well. Hey, everyone. We're going to take a quick pause and hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back. Your favorite neighborhood spot grows with Square. Indeed, my favorite neighborhood spot has quickly become Todd Snyder in Williamsburg. Todd Snyder is one of my favorite menswear shops and has supplied me with all the clothes I have needed this quite hot summer.

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28:20So the bond markets are broken. Do you think, I mean, like what's going on? From a macro point of view, what's going on? What's going on is interest rates are too damn high and they have to issue ongoing bonds to cover the deficits. But they have to roll the bonds from last four years, from three years ago, four years ago in the pandemic cycle, from 1 % interest rate to 5 % interest rate, or 5.5%. And the problem is to do that, you have to issue yet more bonds to pay for that. So we're just getting awash with issuance. And this has been my argument about the everything code, is that there is no way governments can issue bonds at 5 % interest when you're 100 % of GDP in debt, because there's not an economic growth to cover it.

29:14So the central bank has to buy it. and what's happening is here we are pushing the central bank to buy it now whether janet's doing that on purpose is like jay you're gonna have to take this but i think there's a game being played is like okay we'll show the stress we'll create the stress we need to cut rates we can roll this debt at lower levels and if we can find the right excuse like a recession we can roll push it onto the fed balance sheet i don't know if you're still i'm trying to find that clip of stan dragon and Miller talking about Janet Yellen. That's right. About doing, in the past cycle, right?

29:49She had the opportunity to issue 20-year debt, 30-year debt, 10-year debt. Yes. They did short dated. And they've been doing this all the way through. And this is creating this economic cycle I've been talking about. So if you go back to 2008, everybody got the get out of jail free card of zero interest rates. So nobody had to pay interest on their debt. That was like a gift, right? zero interest rates every government refunded at zero but for some weird reason they did it between three and five years that three and five year debt cycle just keeps rolling over it's exactly the bitcoin halving cycle it's exactly the economic cycle it's exactly the u.s election cycle they're all the same thing it's this super cycle this everything code and we're into that point of the cycle now where the balance sheet should start rising to cover the debts from the previous cycle so i saw something that you tweeted this week i'm trying to find it here um about liquidity and how much the markets like liquidity here it is i've got it here walk me through what's actually going on here so you're saying crypto loves liquidity and liquidity seems to be going up if i'm reading this correct and you see this is the year-on-year rates of change right so this is the idea that, okay, global M2 is now positive.

31:11And I've always said the moment liquidity goes above zero in its rate of change, then it's like taking the foot off a beach ball underwater. It kind of explodes higher because these assets want to trend higher. So first up - Hold on. Why is M2 growing if the US is absorbing, if the US is taking M2 out of the economy, right? Or am I reading this wrong? Yeah, because Japan, China, there are other people involved in the M2 calculation, right? This is global M2. So what's happened is global M2 is rising and it will continue to rise. We do have a lot of forward-looking work at GMI. That's what got us very bullish and adding to all of our crypto bets back at the end of last year.

31:55It's because liquidity had started to rise. We're like, okay, this is interesting. So if you get down to the next chart, Garen is. This is Bitcoin outperforming the NASDAQ versus Gloaprend 2, right? So at this point, I call this the supermassive black hole. You don't want to own anything except crypto at this point in the cycle because it starts outperforming everything. So that becomes always interesting. Let's go on to the next. Okay, I'll take a switch to the next one. There we go. Okay, I'm giving you my whole heart chart. I love this. I love this. This is great. I'm sure everybody else is enjoying it.

32:32So this is the weekly global liquidity index, which is five of the world's largest central banks, global net liquidity. And what we're seeing is it's not quite at zero yet. This is the big daddy of indicators. This is the thing that we get when we put just the outright weekly liquidity index. We get a 97.5 % correlation with the NASDAQ and 87 % with Bitcoin. So this is the big daddy. it's not quite there, but it's almost at zero. And once it starts getting to zero, we kind of get into what we refer to as the banana zone, when all assets go bananas. Okay, next one. It's pretty close to zero. I mean, it's very close.

33:13And the next one will show you why.

33:19Okay, sorry. Yeah, this is the one including the private sector. That's now positive. Okay. And then Fed net liquidity, that's just the US. That's positive too. Okay. All of the forward-looking stuff suggests, oh, that's the other one, is if that trend line continues to break, banks are up strongly today because the yields have gone down again. If the banks break, then we know they're just going to hit the accelerator button to all of this stimulus. Okay. What is this BKX index? What is it actually showing and what is this breakdown showing? This is the banking index in the US. This is the main banks.

33:55So that's the uptrend since the 2008 crisis, the big banking crisis. and it's breaking that uptrend. So it's like, okay, the banks are broken here. Now, this is a long-term chart. This could take years to play out or it could happen overnight. You just don't know. I mean, look how fast it happened in 2007-8. But this is the Larry Fink thing, right? Something is broken and you need a safe haven. And I lived through exactly this in Europe in 2012 when we almost lost all of our banking system and Cyprus, everyone had that money taken out of their accounts. That's when I discovered Bitcoin because I realized you needed to have a way of holding assets outside that wasn't gold, which is not the easiest asset to move around.