InvestAnswers: Decoding Everything With Raoul Pal

30:46So So I think the lack of, I think volatility will come down over time from all of this, which is, I think, a good thing. Yeah. But the opportunity goes down. Yeah. And I still go back to the scarcity of this thing. And I've done analysis in 2017 about the number of lost coins, you know, between Satoshi lockup and lost coins, over four or five million will never see the light of day again. Then you have issues like people losing their coins in a perpetual basis. I'm on the receiving end of a lot of that. I see people sending Bitcoin to the wrong address or losing their keys or all sorts of terrible things are happening.

31:20It's very, very fragile. But again, do you think Bitcoin can stay ahead of Ethereum? There used to be a lot of talk about Ethereum flipping Bitcoin. You did hint at that. You're concerned about it. But because of the scarcity of Bitcoin, that could keep it pacing ahead of Ethereum. Or if you look at things like Metcalfe's law, et cetera, et cetera, you analyze all the utility. It's pretty clear Ethereum will flip Bitcoin. But what's your take on that? But firstly, to people who are just in the crypto space, it doesn't matter. They're both going up. Right. So that's the most important thing to note.

31:58So you can back any horse you want. What we're in the game for is the excess returns. Where can you generate the higher return? So when I look at Bitcoin, it's discussed in the purity of what they're doing. But now we're building ordinals and other things on top of the network and layer twos and stuff. Okay, more use cases. Good for Metcalfe's Law. Good for on-chain activity. ETH is much broader and much more dominant in that broader world. And so when I look at that and think of the ETH staking, the yields, what institutions like about this as well? What kind of people get involved? I mean, everything seems to be more ETH based.

32:38And again, that's not a diss on Bitcoin, this ridiculous tribalism online. And I just look at the long term ETH Bitcoin cross on TradingView, and it looks like it's a giant kind of wedge pattern. And I look at that, and that's the kind of, you know, with all price history on a log chart. And I'm like, I just reckon that these patterns usually break up as a continuation pattern. And that would say ETH massively outperforms. If we also know that ETH becomes scarcer every time it's used right now, then it's most likely to outperform. What was really interesting is we've just gone through a big bear market.

33:17Normally, everything gets nuked versus Bitcoin. ETH didn't. It trades sideways. So that's not a big tell. So if it stays the same as Bitcoin in a down market, what's it going to do in a bull market? So that's my hunch is that it outperforms. My hunch that in this cycle, it'll do the flippening, and then it'll probably come back again. And everyone goes, see, it was ridiculous. You know, it was a bubble. It's just, but over time, it's a faster growing network, simple as that. And you and I have watched the bond market for 30 years plus now at this stage. There's the global bond route happening.

33:54Bonds are in the toilet. Yields are on fire. you know it's caused part of a banking crisis i think there's a lot more shoes to fall and i'm going off on this tangent but i'm coming back to eth uh like japan is a mess eu is a mess uk guild market is a mess u.s i think the fed are trying to torch the economy on purpose to get it ready for a change in regime i don't know it's just something they're going way too far and they're way too late but do you believe eth could replace the bond market considering it has yield etc And it's probably a lot safer. And it's an asset that's going up. Well, the only issue is it's obviously very volatile.

34:35So there's that you need to trade off against it. But as a digital bond, it's pretty bloody good. If you're used to the volatility of the space, you can stake your ETH, get a yield. You can either do it through a financial counterparty, much like we can do by getting interest from a bank, which would be DeFi World or CeFi World. Or you can stake yourself and take the yield yourself, which is like going to Treasury Direct in the United States and owning Treasury bonds. So in the digital world, yeah, it is the Treasury bond. Does it replace Treasury bonds? Well, it depends on your time horizon for investing.

35:14If you are an endowment with a 100-year time horizon, what would you rather own? A U.S. Treasury bond that yields 5 % or ETH that yields 5 % and gives you the potential for the technology? Now, sure, you won't weight them the same, but it's got to be very, very interesting to have such a long-duration asset with a 5 % dividend yield or a 5 % yield. Yeah, definitely. So let's switch gears to crypto. I use this analogy. It's very crude. Sometimes I try and explain, you know, how to determine the value of a layer one or a layer two. And I use this shopping mall analogy. Okay, so the blockchain is the shopping mall.

35:55The dApps are the stores within the mall, and the users drive the use of the dApps, which drive up the use of the currency, which drives up the price of the token. Is that too crude an analogy right now? Because when I analyze layer ones, layer twos, I look at the breadth of dApps, and I look at the adoption, the cross-pollination between assets, and really making people comfortable in the ecosystem. So they can go one place and kind of one store that has everything they need, whether it's NFTs and DeFi and maybe some social stuff, maybe some gaming, you know, everything. So how do you view L1s, L2s?

36:36And does that shopping mall analogy resonate with you? Or is it too good? I think it's pretty good. I think it's pretty good as an analogy. And if you could own a share of the shopping mall, now that's a shitty business model now because nobody wants shopping malls, but the visualization, how I'm thinking of it is ETH is actually a digital nation state in its own right. And I'm going to write a big piece on this with Kevin Kelly from Delphi Digital is my view is all the elements, structural elements of an economy are there. We've got a population. We've got a trend rate of growth. We've got a yield curve that's not defined by central bank, but designed at protocol level.

37:22Then we have the assets that are in that economy. NFTs are assets within the economy. We've got the financial side of it. So that's CeFi and DeFi. and the layer twos are probably the states within that nation. So you get the choice, do you want to live in the United States and live in California or do you want to live in Florida? And you get different, you accrue different benefits, but it's actually still under the nation state of the United States. So I'm starting to think of it more as nation states and ETH is, And again, when I finalize this article, there's a lot of parallels between ETH and a regular economy.

38:05But economies don't grow as fast as ETH has. And it doesn't have such a big boom-bust cycle. But yeah, I think the shopping mall works, but also think of it as a country and people start to understand it. And I know you're a big believer in Matt Cass' law, as I am too. And there are many other things that can drive the value of a network. but it's pretty clear there are kind of three names out there that are kind of managing all the users and maybe a fourth and those three names are Ethereum, Polygonmatic, Solana and the fourth coming in from behind pretty fast is Arbitrum but two of those four are layer twos and this takes me back to the age-old question I've been trying to answer myself since I was looking for the ETH killer that's how i fell upon solana as if there is one that's it but the challenge that i had early 2021 was it's modular all right no the eth is modular and solana's monolithic so they're very very different the dna etc how do how do you reckon that in your head across the different architectural types or does it really matter it's all about the users i mean i don't know what computer you're on.

39:20You don't know what computer I'm on. I don't know what version of the software you're running. All of this stuff will get abstracted away. So really, it's going to be all these guys actually sell as block space. Is your block space attractive and are other people using it in ways that helps you out? A lot of people use AWS because AWS have a bunch of services on top of it, of just storing your data. Same with Microsoft. So I think it's a similar thing. I think, you know, once you just abstract all of it away and all of the emotion out of the crypto markets is you need to make your block space attractive by having a good product that functions and is priced well.

40:02So I don't really care what types of change. There's other interesting ones, SUI coming up, obviously, which is the similar beta based on move like Aptos is. There's a whole bunch of these. I don't think it matters. I think for me, I want everything to succeed in the best way that they can. But there's no room. If you look at traditional business models, there's only one, maybe two winners in that space. Well, I thought Tolley said something interesting. He was looking at, could Solana be a layer two on ETH? Or could even theoretically ETH be a layer two on Solana? Or Solana be a layer two for Bitcoin.

40:44Yeah. And what that got to me, he was having a more intellectual conversation about security and how to create extra layers of security in case of kind of block failure, stuff like that. But what that looked to me obvious was, well, then you've got interoperability. So then we don't kind of care what chain we're on and we can build anywhere. Because one of the difficult things for a business, if you're Nike, can you make the decision not to build on ETH? Because you don't know if anything else is going to survive or there's enough activity on enough wallets, that kind of stuff. So that is a bit of a supermassive black hole for ETH.

41:27But if you create the interoperability, then anybody can use anything. They can make the choice, hey, this one's faster and cheaper for me. It's better for my needs because I'm doing ticketing, whatever. And they don't have to make the catastrophic decision of, oh my God, well, nobody can use this for anything else. yeah so i i go back to the path to a billion users the question is who gets there first and like everything else in the world it's the best cheapest fastest solution will get there first you can't adopt you can't have a billion use on a blockchain if it's 15 dollars a transaction that's just not going to fly so no but there too's accomplished that right so that's they still have their issues with things like finality and stuff like that that holds them back from certain use cases.

42:10That's right. But for some use cases, more than adequate. For others, not adequate. And that's pretty much true of every blockchain, right? There's huge trade-offs. And I think that's fine. And I know you spoke recently as well about some allocations. The way I look at the sky of the crypto world and crypto positions is risk and reward. I know Ethereum will outperform on Bitcoin. I know Solana probably will outperform Ethereum. But the question is, how much do you allocate? And this is the debate I have in my little head every single day, especially when I see things like pricing. One other number for you to consider is ETH market cap is 40x Solana.

42:55They've got the same number of daily active users. There's something wrong with how these things are valued or do people simply not have a clue at how to appraise a blockchain? So when I've done the work on this and built a Metcalfe's Law model. It's number of active users, fine. But the thing that most people don't understand is what seems to give the best correlation is total value transacted in dollars. And what we find is that Bitcoin is worth more because more is exchanging value. ETH does a lot more transactions, but they're smaller. And the Bitcoin transactions tend to be larger in size because there's a lot more institutions and that kind of stuff in the space.

43:39So what it's telling you, and I found that all of them seem to be priced accurately according to that, you know, with a chart fit kind of thing. Therefore, it's telling you Solana has smaller transactions. Okay, that's fine. You know, it depends what applications get built. And if it's going to be a consumer chain, which is, I think, really where its branding lies really well, then maybe it does that. But then it's going to have a lot more active users because it's a consumer-based product. So you win in different... There's two different ways to win in that game. But I, like you, think ETH outperforms Bitcoin and Solana outperforms ETH.

44:17But I won't prepare to have that... I've got the ETH bet. I don't really have much Bitcoin anymore. And that worked well in the bear market. My ETH maintained its value against Bitcoin. So fine. That's the first leg of that to prove out. the next bit is the bull market. I imagine that if those downward sloping trend lines of Sol versus ETH start breaking, and we start to see some breakout new applications on Solana, that I will be shuffling my 90-10 or 80-20 or whatever my current weighting is between the two and changing around. Now, I did that once before, which was Bitcoin and ETH. I had virtually no ETH.

45:04I was watching the chart pattern, watching the chart pattern. And then I think it was December, 2020, I just started switching. And then by the time I got through to like March of 2021, I owned very little Bitcoin. I'd switched 90.10 to 10.90. And it may happen again with Solana. I mean, people mistake me for an ETH maxi. No, I'm currently, I'm trying to be a profit maxi. Yes, I love the space, but I'm trying to make money out of a long-term view. I try hammer that home. It goes back to the, as you say, the monkeys throwing poop at each other. It's I'm an alpha maxi. So I chase wherever like I did something very sacrilegious.

45:44When Tesla hit like 106 or whatever, I swapped Bitcoin into Tesla, because I was looking at the upside. I said, over the next year, year and a half, Tesla is going to outperform Bitcoin. and then the horror from the world he sold big not all some it's a tiny piece uh but it's just funny how i know the i always try and spend a lot of time understanding the psychology of money and humans relationship with it but what advice would you give people around their blind faith and getting married to something that sometimes isn't ever going to go anywhere what would you tell them I mean, it's really hard.

46:25And this came up recently on a Twitter spaces I was on. It's like, here's all of us saying, just hold on. Hold on and buy in the down cycles. So you hear advice like that. It works really well in secular trend rising assets. But what happens if you chose the wrong thing? Yeah. That piece of advice is the worst piece of advice you're ever going to get. I thought that was a valid criticism, but I don't yet know how to address it, how to explain that you need things that are in a secular trend or have a chance, because if not, you're going to go bankrupt. Yeah, I just popped up a trading view chart, and literally 24 hours ago, ETH was trading at$18.52, and now it's about to hit$21.

47:11So that type of swing is massive when you compare it to other assets. I'm just thinking, well, I have you on the line. I'll see exactly what the market's doing. because my computer is a messed up today, but you're dead, right? So in terms of you're in a position where you can flip between assets 10 times a day and incur no tax penalty, correct? Yes, but I also don't. So I don't trade. I found that my edge is my long-term view, and I'm pretty comfortable with it. And it's made me a lot more money over time than my trading ever did. And so I don't trade. I will make an asset allocation switch, which will be one switch.

47:50I'll be like, oh, I might move 50 % of my ETH into salt, theoretically. That will be one switch. I just don't do anything else because I've found that I've generated more alpha for myself by having a long-term time horizon. Because if not, you just get caught out at the wrong times and your mental state goes. But my mental state, going through a whole bear market, which I've been through so many times since I first got in in 2012-13 was like super chill. The only thing that I got stressed about is I didn't have any more cash to buy. I was like, I need to find cash to find because I had a plan.

48:28I knew what was happening. I was comfortable. But if you're trading, you just find so many attack vectors where your mind gets screwed up and you're like, I need to get out. I need to do this. And I can't get it right. And I'm a moron. and then I'm a genius. That journey of moron to genius. And if you're the shorter term trader you are, the more you feel those emotions, they're not good. I think it's net negative. That's such an interesting point. Yeah, I think the bear market, and you still see the PTSD in people. And this is what I warned you about. This is kind of drilling into what you just said.

49:02People are so damaged and they buy something and they get back to their realized price like 25K and they sell, I'm going to buy back in at 10 ,000. and it shoots to 30 ,000. It's like, well, what just happened? What advice would you have? Like, I know you're right there. What I try and do and the advice I give people, and now I've heard myself parroted back, is I believe in what's called a huddle buy, because I could say 80 % I do everything in a Pareto-efficient manner. You don't touch that. You might swap between pristine assets, like Tesla, Bitcoin, et cetera, but that's locked away and use that as margin to do kind of your 20 % playing, trading activities.

49:40But what advice would you say to people? Like we're in exponential times. You covered at the very beginning, stock market divided by money supply is flat. Real estate is down, but you have leverage. But these are exponential assets and there's so few of them and they're so scarce. So what I'm hearing from you is your advice would be hold. I'm going to I need to just find the front cover of my July GMI which was probably the best cover it was just four words that says don't fuck this up and then there was a tweet from somebody on Twitter that said there is a bull market staring you in the face all you have to do to make life changing money is buy and wait patiently, don't fuck this up and that's and then I put the bell curve of the mid twit on the left is the buy and hold retail investor in the middle is no you know inflation this recession blah blah blah and the other side is the monk with the buy and hold so yeah that that is my advice is you buy and hold and accumulate into these large cyclical drawdowns and just check whether your overall thesis is right and the overall thesis is do we have adoption It's the same bloody thesis for Tesla as well.

51:03It's like for anything. Does it have an ongoing adoption? And is that going to continue to increase? If that's the case, forget everything else. It's all noise. So we got your allocations. You may have snuck the cat out of the bag accidentally by saying the 10 to 20 and 80 % ETH, which is actually not dissimilar to me. I happen to be 80 % Bitcoin, about 16 % ETH and about 4 % SOL. but I do anticipate that Flipping could happen very quickly for the last two. All right, so let's talk about a couple of other things. I know we don't have you forever. Unfortunately, central bank digital currencies, WF control, etc.

51:46There was a lot of news about Ledger, which rattled literally hardcore, you know, not your keys, not your coins, cold storage communities all over the world with, you know, some Bubsy and customer support on Twitter saying, oh, yeah, we can backdoor into your wallet and stuff. That sent shockwaves, literally. I was getting questions about wallets for months and months. It's died down, thank goodness. But what did you think of all of that? Do you think there'll come a time, like, you know, getting back to Larry Fink, He said it's a democratizing force, which means he sees the WF CBDC world. He got a black eye from being so pro ESG for a long time.

52:31And he said, I'm no longer associating myself with that. How do you see all of this coming around? We know CBDs are coming. We know money printing is going to only accelerate from here. We know governments need a way to control how the populace plays with money, how they spend it, what they spend it on. There's any way around it to continue at the money printing rate and be in a position to pay for all the social benefits that are coming down the pike with the aging population, negative birth rates, et cetera. How do you view this whole CBDC world and politics? I think there is a magnificent battle that is going on, which is the battle I've talked about for some time between the parallel system and the old system.

53:14Once you see it for that's what it is, the Gensler, the Noise, the Central Bank Digital Currencies. Central Bank Digital Currencies is one way of acceptance that the new system that these bunch of bandits built is better than the old system, right? That's incredible. There's the whole old system saying, yeah, what you guys have built is better than ours. So we want a bit of that. And the battle is the kind of punk 6529 battle of who gets control. and we have a chance that the people will get more control that we will never have full control a you live in a country and you have laws and all of those things but will we have more control or less control than the current financial system and that's the fight we have to have which is why it does matter how many people actually own digital assets in their own right what we build on these rails is really important it's not just speculation it's actually of societal importance because society has become more constricting over time and more technology means more capture over humans in certain ways that we don't understand.

54:22Behavioral economics is a big and scary thing and incentive systems, perverse or otherwise, will get used at scale. I don't know how to stay out of all of this. It is complicated. And it's one of the reasons I saw this coming after the European crisis when I was living in Spain. I'm like, I need to get out of here or at least have a plan B. And my plan B was to go to a small island in the middle of the Caribbean where I'm just a bit further away than this battle. But this battle is being fought in the US, Europe, the UK, and a whole bunch of other countries. Although interestingly enough, and we talked before we were on camera, India.

55:05When you ask an Indian about state control, they don't care. The freedom side of money and that stuff is not the most important to them. The most important stuff is to make money. And the Chinese are the same. So different philosophies have different things and where they are in the economic cycle. But yeah, there's a big battle over all of this. And the other thing is within that battle is not only governments, but it's all the financial players that exist today and then there's all the big web 2 giants the technology giants and we have to fight all of these people yeah i actually speaking of the indian stock market i spoke about that on my saturday's video and how it's going up so well but also when you balance it with the m2 money supply growth in india it's always north of 10 so they're printing like crazy but is that balanced out by the growth in population too of north of 1.4 billion people, biggest country in the world, growing middle class, they just need more money.

56:02That's what I'm saying. So I, and you'll hear me referring to this a lot when I've been sharing it on Twitter. I use that bell curve meme again. And I'm like, India, average age of 28, 1.4 billion people. Those average age of 28 will be 38 in 10 years. still young by Bitcoin. So they're just going to go from being, hey, I've just got my first job. I've come out of university with my 17 PhDs as Indians do. And then they're going to go into the workplace and start saving and buying. We know what that does. So I just keep it really simple. So yeah, the Indian market will, of course, do well because demographics is literally the largest driver of everything.

56:58So yeah, I just keep it as simple as I possibly can because a lot of people say, well, the central bank, they haven't got inflation under control. Nobody with an average age of 28 has low inflation because these people are all coming into the labor force, buying their first house and car and getting married and all of that inflationary stuff. So yeah, I just think it's just one of the simplest, best stories in the world. So, and we now have switching, because this all ties in together. I think you were the first person to say macro is crypto, crypto is macro. Is that fair to say? A hundred percent.

57:33And I'm now more convinced of it than I ever have been in the past. All right. So following the kind of everything code, and I love that framework too, and considering the need for 0 % rates going forward, cowbell, how explosive do you expect the bull market to be? We are in a bull market. But, you know, we know the Fed has to cut. They're on the verge of paying a trillion dollars in interest, which is like 30, 40 percent more than the defense budget. And everything's broken. Deficits are exploding. I don't know what they're seeing in the job market. I think they need to take into account the fact that in the United States, people.

58:09There's a game we don't know. There's got to be a game we don't know is being played here. that's my general thought is like what are they trying to do? They're trying to get it so when they cut the bottom is 2 % because they know that each cycle needs to cut 400 basis points or something so therefore is it 2 % I don't know what the game is to be played here but what I do know from my macro work is I can forecast the cycle probably, again there's no certainties in this world looks like we're in a bull market I can see where liquidity is going and where it's likely to go because of interest payments and other issues and demographics.

58:51We can map out potentially where assets go. But what you don't know is where the human emotion side is going to be in this. Because if everyone goes all crypto crazy again, it'll do significantly more than people expect. And we'll have a bigger boom bust cycle. If it's not, so it's very difficult to predict where it actually goes. But what we can say is, look, it's reasonable that Bitcoin from all time highs doubles or triples. That's not asking a lot. That will be the worst bull market in Bitcoin's history. but there's an interesting angle that that i see and what do they say the most dangerous words in the investing language is this time is different but it is let me explain why we have a decreasing supply hitting the market we have increasing demand and there's record low amount on exchanges available for sale and more hodling than ever before everything that you look at that's on chain it's a perfect storm of supply crunch i had jamie from bloomberg on and he and back in january and he said there will be a bitcoin supply crunch by the end of 2023 what's your take on that and could this time be different where there's more than a 3x because we know diminishing returns diminishing yeah i think all of us need to be cautious putting out prices to people yeah you know so we all have our heads what we think because people don't yet know how to fully take risk because this is bringing in new market participants so how i would look at it and even with my own mind is listen it probably triples from the all-time high and currently it's at 30 grand So, okay, that's a 6X from here.

1:00:48That's pretty good. And the upside is maybe I'm totally wrong and it gets complete panic to the upside because of the issues you talk about. We don't know what's going to be happening in the economy in 2025, what could be driving prices. So I just think you get the upside for free. You can be conservative and it's still huge and you get the upside for free. So when I first wrote, I think I wrote the first ever kind of Bitcoin strategy piece, investment strategy piece and price model, that was 2013. It was at 200 bucks. And I said, I worked it out kind of like gold with a stock to flow ratio, just kind of simple maths.

1:01:33And I'm like, well, Bitcoin on the same basis will be valued at a million dollars. So I said, OK, I'm just going to discount myself by 90 percent because this sounds ridiculous. So we'll call it$100 ,000. And it was trading at$200. So it's still the best risk reward you'll ever find. So at 6x, does Bitcoin outperform, underperform Tesla, or inline? I don't know. I actually don't know with that bet because I'm actually quite bored with Tesla. And they are my two biggest positions because I tell everybody, You know, we, as using another, sorry for stealing all your terms, the exponential age, that's what we're in.

1:02:16But what's comical is nobody or very few people can actually wrap their heads around what that actually means. You have people like you, you have people like Jeff Booth. You guys get it. But your traditional Wall Street analysts have no clue. So we are in a very unique place where I'm seeing for the first time in my life, you have more smarts on things like FinTwit and retail investors and YouTube analysts than you do at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs and all these other places. I know you worked at Goldman back in the day. um how how do you explain the fact that like the only way i can explain that wall street is less smart than kind of retail is the fact that they're acting like psyops and they're only pumping their own bags they're saying oh general motors gonna crush tesla or whatever else how do you play that when we started real vision back in 2014 the idea was to democratize the very best financial knowledge back then nobody got access to all of the great minds that we have on real vision the great research it was not there so what would have fin twit been like back then the average person will have known much less yeah so now this proliferation of long-form podcast information everything else and then this great debating forum where you can learn and see so much and the wisdom of crowds beats the individual over time.

1:03:52So I think the crowd is generally smart, not always. There's certainly people who are amazing, but generally speaking, if you can filter some of the noise from the crowd, the information advantage you get is pretty high and it's been proven. Hedge funds use Twitter for trading signals, stuff like that. So I think what we've done is ended up democratizing and decentralizing information. And where the information comes together is platforms like Twitter or like Real Vision, where people can then have discussions about stuff. So I like it because it's taken out of the hands of the Goldmans of this world.

1:04:32And they know they're less relevant. Yeah, they've got one or two good analysts. The rest of them, it's just irrelevant. They're just there to service the investment banking, because really the rock stars lie outside. Yeah. Well, I got a couple more questions. I know we're running out of time. You got a few more minutes? A couple of minutes. I'm going to film another whole thing for Real Vision in a sec. So let's do it. Super fast. One, you said Bitcoin could do a 3X, ETH probably a 5X, and then Solana maybe a 7X. They are kind of the ratios I'm thinking about in my head. Yeah, and my numbers are much larger is what I'm thinking.

1:05:07So I'm actually thinking, look, there is a potential. And again, people listening to this, there's a potential, there's a possibility, a dream scenario that Solana does what ETH did from the 2018 low, which was a 47X. And so Solana low was nine bucks. So you could do the math. The numbers are potentially very interesting. That would be 20-something X from here for Solana. So ETH will be less than that, much like Ethereum platform Bitcoin. So yeah, somewhere in that range that you gave, and then just look at what ETH did back in 2018 and say, look, that's reasonable for a proven battle-tested protocol that has a lot of activity.

1:05:57Okay, super fast. This is going to be a quick round because I know you've got to go. I'm going to tap you for all your worth. SEC and crypto you said beautifully in a video I think last week same thing I've been saying for a long time the SEC doesn't matter US market doesn't matter for crypto a lot of people are scared that the SEC Gary Gensler and co obviously they're part of Choke Point etc they can't kill crypto agree no it's like water money flows it flows everywhere where it's most accepted and most looked after right so the chinese banned it three times india's banned it um we've had hong kong ban it and unban it we've had you know endless right but it flows this is a decentralized system of money and value and no one nation can control it which is why they're so scared of it obviously um and the us will realize that as you said at the beginning you're actually taking away people's freedoms here in a very big opportunity.

1:06:59And the political backlash will be very big. And I think we're already starting to see the traction of that, where people say, listen, this is not right, how we're being treated. So I think politics solves it in the end. But if they continue to do this, other countries will just take the mantle. Okay. Penultimate question. July and August, historically, very quiet. I call it the summer doldrums, not a lot of buyers, volume's low, price is full. Could there be some buying opportunities for people that didn't get on the train earlier in the year? Yeah, I tend to think my framework has actually been that July might be all right, then August is that, you know, everyone's on holiday, nobody cares.

1:07:41Yeah. But we're starting to see the commercial, the smaller banks, KRE, roll over again. Got to keep your eye on that because if it does, then it increases the chance of more cowbell because if the banks need bailing out it's going to happen that's right so my general feeling is end of august september starts getting interesting i'm sure we'll have a larger correction at some point i don't think it's going to be 2019 this time around um i think it might it might be it might be a stronger market but who knows so yeah any sell-offs any sideways good time to just add stuff if you're not fully loaded because a lot of people have PTSD and a lot of people are still on the sidelines and they you get yourself this is we talked about before you get yourself in mental anguish because you've now traded and you've got out of the market and you want to be in the market because your whole body wants you to be in the market for the long term but you think you've been smart by getting out and then you miss the next 30 percent you know it's like just be careful not to mess up my mind we're looking at all these crypto bulls on twitter like it was going down to 10 000 yeah why because they can't bear the fact that they got out and now they're stuck in a position now they're hoping and they want to fill their bags for the door price exactly awesome final question for you cancer and robo thank you so much been 2500 people watching here live and they all appreciate don't forget the real vision links are down below uh there's all sorts of next week actually i just remembered next week um there is i think it's we've got a whole crypto gathering which is i'm laying out my entire crypto thesis i've got to record that now which is where i need to go Then we brought on the best technical analysts.

1:09:21We've got hedge fund managers. We've got everybody to discuss different parts over the course of a week. So I think it's realvision.com forward slash gathering. It's free. Knock your socks off. There's a lot there. Rock up a Raoul's house. Exactly. These guys got dogs. Don't do that. Final question, prepper plans. We see a lot of people now beginning to walk with their feet, get out of Dodge, move to Dubai, move to El Salvador. or where would you believe the best place to be would go or where would it go or the best place to live maybe the next five ten years when you want to get out of the western world if it becomes crazy i mean that's not an easy question to answer uh because there's a huge amount of trade-offs i did i moved to the cayman islands um by accident part of it was the plan b is like listen if i think there's going to be more civil unrest higher taxations around the world and i think we've got this debt cycle and this demographic cycle i don't like it i want somewhere that i can feel a little bit more removed from the situation that's why i chose it um it depends what age you are you know lands of opportunities would be mumbai it would be probably the middle east probably dubai uh probably saudi probably abu dhabi i think they're going to be interesting because they're around India, they're around these young populations, there's a lot going on, and they're kind of having a technological revolution.

1:10:46But where else do you live? Yeah, I remember looking at waterfront property in Mumbai a couple of years back. I couldn't believe the prices. Millions, like way more than Manhattan. Unbuyable. It's unbuyable. I don't know how. You know, it's crazy. So, yeah, it's not an easy choice to think of that. And if anybody watching this is an American, it's even harder. because the long arm of the United States tax system and political system is immense versus other states. Well, thank you so much again for your support. We do have to reconnect again. I have some other things to show you. Next time we have more time, you'll find them very interesting.

1:11:25But we spent the whole of the bear market building stuff, including a thing called the Crypto Compendium, analyzed the top 500 cryptos across 69 different parameters. I think it'd be handy for your community to have in your back pocket as well as we go forward. And a whole bunch of emails. Yeah, put me an email and we'll chat about it. Awesome. Thank you so much again. Enjoy the next video. Thank you for all you do as well for the world and the community. We're all very grateful. And we love you. Thank you, sir. Thank you. See you later. Thank you. Really good as ever. Okay. Take care. Till soon.

1:11:55Bye. What's up, revolutionaries? Thanks for tuning in. For more content like this, head over to realvision.com and get unfiltered access to the very best, brightest, and biggest names in finance.