Is Crypto Set to Go 50x From Here? ft. Jamie Coutts

24 Oct 2024 · 1 h 19 min

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Podcast Episode Summary: Is Crypto Set to Go 50x From Here? ft. Jamie Coutts

Podcast Information

  • Title: The Journeyman
  • Episode Title: Is Crypto Set to Go 50x From Here? ft. Jamie Coutts
  • Release Date: October 22, 2024
  • Host: Raoul Pal
  • Guest: Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision
  • Main Focus: Discussion on crypto market projections, research methodologies, and liquidity-driven cycles.

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Introduction In this episode, Raoul Pal converses with Jamie Coutts regarding the latest insights from Jamie's report, "Navigating the Bull: Liquidity-Driven Crypto Cycle Projections." They explore the opportunities and methodologies related to crypto investments, particularly focusing on expected price movements within this cycle.

Key Themes

  • The transformative nature of cryptocurrency within the economic landscape.
  • Analysis of how crypto can unlock future opportunities amidst economic challenges.
  • Discussion surrounding liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and the potential growth of the crypto market.

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Key Concepts and Discussions

Economic Context

  • Economic Singularity: Pal suggests that the upcoming six years are critical for individuals to prepare for significant changes in the economic system, termed as the economic singularity.
  • Crypto as a Solution: Pal emphasizes the role of cryptocurrency as not just an investment but a means to resolve contemporary economic challenges.

Jamie Coutts' Background

  • Jamie shares his background, starting from his early exposure to Bitcoin during the European debt crisis while at Bloomberg.
  • His journey led him to create a comprehensive framework for analyzing cryptocurrencies, focusing on technical analysis and fundamental valuation.

Research Methodologies

  • Jamie employs Metcalfe's Law to understand and value cryptocurrencies, which posits that the value increases with the number of users.
  • He integrates various analytical methods to model price dynamics and liquidity cycles, aiming to predict future market behavior.

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Key Takeaways

Market Projections

  • Bitcoin Price Forecast:
  • Base case projection of $170,000 per Bitcoin by the cycle's peak, based on historical performance.
  • Potential upside scenarios suggest prices could reach $234,000 or even as high as $500,000 under optimal conditions.

Liquidity-Driven Analysis

  • Jamie's research identifies liquidity factors (e.g., Global M2, central bank balance sheets) as primary drivers for crypto price movements.
  • The alignment of liquidity indicators in Q4 2023 signaled a favorable market condition, leading to a Bitcoin price surge from $30,000 to $70,000.

Sectoral Insights

  • Jamie discusses various sectors within the crypto market, including:
  • Smart Contract Platforms: Expected to outperform Bitcoin in this cycle.
  • Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Seen as a promising area, particularly as institutional interest increases.
  • Infrastructure and AI Integration: Potential for significant growth, although the market remains speculative.

Active User Metrics and Adoption Rates

  • Jamie emphasizes the importance of active user metrics in assessing network health and potential economic value.
  • He notes the discrepancy between active address growth and market cap, which signals underlying network activity and future price potential.

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Closing Thoughts

  • Raoul Pal concludes the episode by highlighting the importance of Jamie's insights and the rarity of such comprehensive research in the crypto space.
  • He encourages listeners to engage with the free report available on Real Vision, promoting further exploration of the discussed concepts.

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Additional Resources

  • Full Report: [Navigating the Bull: Liquidity-Driven Crypto Cycle Projections](https://app.realvision.com/report/navigating-the-bull-crypto-cycle-projections)
  • Real Vision: [Visit Real Vision](https://realvision.com)

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Final Note This episode encapsulates the intricate dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the importance of understanding liquidity, market psychology, and the impact of macroeconomic trends on future valuations. Jamie Coutts’ research provides valuable frameworks for investors navigating this evolving landscape.

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Transcript

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1:04I'm proud to have Kulshi as a sponsor and I hope you check them out. You can sign up using my link in the description and the first 500 traders who deposit$50 will get a free$20 credit. Hi, I'm Raoul Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman. And as you all know by now the journeyman is my exploration my journey to the nexus of macro crypto and the exponential age of technology you see i think these are the most powerful forces and we've talked about or certainly i've talked about the idea that you've probably got six years to kind of unfuck your life before the economic singularity comes when everything changes things we don't understand about the economic system will become paramount to us.

1:51And I think that this time period now is incredibly crucial. And as you know, one of my big solves for this is crypto. And I talk a lot about crypto here. And crypto, it's not just, you know, a lot of people, it becomes culty, but it's not to me. What it is, it's a way to unlock your future and to unfuck the problems that we face today. It really is one of the biggest opportunities we've ever had. It's been the best performing asset of all time in the shortest period of time. It has gone from zero to two trillion dollars, and I think it's on its journey to a hundred trillion dollars within 10 years.

2:34That'll be the largest, fastest accumulation of wealth in history. Now, it's a new technology, and we need to understand how it works and how to price it. It leaves many people kind of scratching their head saying, I don't really know how this works or what it means and this magic internet money. And I've spent a long time working on many of these concepts of how to value this thing. Using Metcalfe's Law, for example, I pioneered a lot of the understanding of Metcalfe's Law and other people have been building on that work. How the macro cycle plays in, how liquidity plays in. All of these things I've tried to introduce to people as I work with Julian Battelle in global macro investor to try and drive our understanding of the space so we can capture the big opportunities as they lie ahead.

3:19Now, one of the lucky things for me in my role is I get to talk to the coolest people in the world. And I also get to discover amazing talent, people that other people don't really know about. And I get them on my radar screen and I get to talk to them. and this next guest is somebody called Jamie Coots and Jamie I met online four years ago and I saw him doing some incredible analysis on crypto working on some of my ideas on Metcalfe's law how to value this stuff and Jamie and I spent a long time talking and trying to figure out how we can get to work together and eventually I managed to get him to Real Vision where he is our chief crypto analyst.

4:01Now, Jamie's a bit of a unicorn because he's a technical analyst. He's a financial markets person, but he's been building models and understandings and deep dives into protocols and all of this stuff in the Real Vision Pro Crypto tier, which is our kind of benchmark crypto product, which is you really want to understand crypto and look for the opportunities. that's pro-crypto and Jamie is the face of pro-crypto and has built out incredible research and understanding he also appears elsewhere on the platform trying to share his knowledge and I want to get him out more because he really is a true talent in the space and Jamie just produced a report on Real Vision about it's kind of his deep dive on where he thinks this cycle ends the kind of valuations he sees where the opportunities lie and I thought you know what this should not just be for pro crypto people.

4:53This should be for everybody. So everybody on the Real Vision platform and also those of you watching this on YouTube, I think it's a really important piece. And I love his framework. And it's going to give you something to better understand how to invest in this space and capture that opportunity from$2 trillion to$100 trillion. So I'm going to talk to Jamie. We're going to go through his research. You're going to understand a lot more about this space, where the opportunities lie, where this is going for this cycle, how to think about it. But also, not only that, the research report is going to be given free to everybody on the Real Vision platform.

5:32If you're not on the platform, go to realvision.com and just sign up. It's very simple. Just an email sign up and you'll get Jamie's full report, which is incredible. We barely cover it in this conversation. and you'll get an insight to what the pros are seeing in the pro crypto side of the equation now pro crypto is more than just jamie it's a lot of research and it's a whole community everybody trying to help each other find the best ideas understand the space it's something very magical something we've been very proud of but i want to make sure everybody gets this so if you're on real vision you're going to get this research report and i think it's really will help you.

6:11And if you get a chance, check out ProCrypto as well. Anyway, enjoy my conversation with Jamie. I think you'll find it useful. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

6:37Jamie, it's weird saying welcome to Real Vision, but that's my standard line. But you obviously are the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, but you and I have known each other for a while and you've had a great crypto journey. And I think it's always good to just let people know your journey into crypto and then what you're doing now for Real Vision and why you came across to us to help everybody in their journey. Yeah, well, thanks for having me on, Raoul. Well, I mean, you've heard this story before, but it started a couple of cycles ago. I heard about Bitcoin. While I was at Bloomberg at the time, it was the European debt crisis.

7:15And it was a couple of articles on Zero Hedge at the time, which were talking about Bitcoin. And specifically what happened around the time that the Cypriot banks bowed in their depositors. And that first alerted me to the potential of this technology. but it took me a couple of years to really wrap my head around it. And at the time of Bloomberg, when I started to do a deeper and deeper dive, when I was based in Singapore, listening to a lot of your content, a lot of your thinking around the actual liquidity cycle and the debt cycle, and some of the fantastic guests that you had on at the time, like Dan Tapiero and Dan Moorhead in those early days, really crystallized the view that this was a revolutionary technology and that it had a lot of potential, not just in Bitcoin, but in blockchain and sort of these blockchain rails for things like payments and DeFi and whatnot.

8:12And so when I was at Bloomberg, I became, I was an equity specialist. I was covering sovereign wealth funds, the large asset managers across Asia and Australia. And more and more of my personal time was being focused or dedicated towards this asset class, this emerging asset class. And within Bloomberg, that sort of made me a thorn in the side of a lot of product managers and a lot of salespeople, because more and more I was talking about what was happening in this space. And we started to see in the 2018-19 period, the emergence of some asset managers, right? Some digital asset funds. They were very small and there weren't many, but they started to emerge and we started to talk internally about how do we cater to this asset class.

9:06Bloomberg didn't really have any product. We had prices. And so that really kicked off an evolution with inside the company to start catering or at least thinking about this potential opportunity. I wrote an internal memo in 2020, which was like a very large research report. Just off in my own time, no one asked me to do it. And I put a lot of time and effort into looking at what was happening in the asset class and in the space, in the industry, in the technology and projecting forward. And that sort of, we'll talk about the latest report that I've done for Real Vision and the projections that I put in.

9:45But that sort of started me on this journey towards being sort of a research analyst in this space. That report actually went all the way up to senior management. and I spoke to a lot of the senior management at the time about what was happening. And Bloomberg started to evolve and create a strategy around it on the product side, on the sales side. And I led that effort in the Asia region. And then it led me into Bloomberg Intelligence, which is the research arm at Bloomberg, about 300 analysts and strategists and associates. So it's a very large department and created the digital research product there.

10:22And so really what I was aiming to do was try to fill a gap or try to plug a hole, which was the misunderstanding or the, I guess, appreciation of how to sort of value these assets or how to think about them from a portfolio perspective, how they fit and model out the volatility and the potential for the asset cost to actually grow. So the research there at Bloomberg was really focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum and starting to sort of work into the L1s. And then really we started talking in 2022 and I moved across to Real Vision and have made this transition to try and build out, I think, a more open democratic product for everyone in the space from retail investors up to institutions because on the Real Vision platform, as you know, you've built a very large following with institutions, family offices and large asset managers.

11:20And so the research is really catered to all uses, but it's really applying, I think, a multidisciplinary approach. I mean, I've got a technical analysis background. I've done, you know, a quantitative modeling. I've built systems, equities, you know, systematic strategies, momentum strategies and equities. Applying that in crypto is reasonably straightforward and easy because it's a momentum asset class, right? It's got extremely high volatility, at times very strong momentum factor being exhibited. And so you can apply those techniques. But really, it's the fundamental underpinning, which I think the market still doesn't have a decent grasp of.

12:03And it's not easy because the data is improving. The visibility is improving. And you would expect that. You've got a technology where you can extract data in real time. But the interpretation of that data and how that fits and how that explains the prices is the big question mark that's still trying to be solved by not just me, but everyone in the space. And that's what makes it incredibly intellectually stimulating and interesting. I mean, your work is really interesting to me because you're a bit of a sponge. so you'll see ideas and they stick in your head and they rattle around for a while and you can't get them out so you go and do work on it and you build on people's ideas you built on my idea of metcalf's law and you've been driving that whole space forwards more than anybody else in the world and you do this with a lot of things i mean not to blow your trumpet but you really do try and find a new truth within these markets of how to look at them in a much more systematic, understandable format, sort of like Graham and Dodd did with equity markets.

13:18You're not looking necessarily for value, but you're looking for what are the fundamental drivers? How do we measure them? How can we look at relative valuations? It's incredible work, and we're super lucky to have you at real vision you're also you know you produce a lot of work within the uh real vision pro crypto tier so talk about what products you currently produce in pro crypto obviously there's there's other people involved in pro crypto producing stuff but it's really the the center is is your incredible work so what are you producing there and what are you also working on because you're working on some really cool shit as well that nobody's done before so i think it's like it's it's like that image of an iceberg so what you're seeing in pro crypto today is really just the tip which is two reports that come out every month there's a there's a constant theme in terms of those reports they usually involve a fundamental explanation of what's happening in the market specifically at least initially the smart contract platform universe and Bitcoin.

14:24The space is so filled with technical analysis. And there's actually much less fundamental analysis on a regular basis. You get research reports from Masari or Delphi, but there's very little of this, which is really interesting. Well, I, like you, am a student of markets and history. And I've got a presentation, which I've made at various conferences and whatnot. And one of the slides is the evolution of financial market analysis. If you look at it, the early forms, it was really price-based technical analysis. It was, you know, whether it was the Japanese rice markets with a guy called Manisha Homer, who developed the candlesticks, and then the Dow theory, I'm sorry, you know, Charles Dow and trend analysis, which started at the end of the 1800s and into the early 19th, the 20th century.

15:16So technical analysis really became the dominant form and then came the really strong underpinning of fundamental analysis in the 30s and 40s. And after that, it was really quantitative portfolio analysis, Sharp and all these other guys who developed a lot of the theories that are still used in portfolio analysis today. than Metcalfe's Law in the 80s, which you picked up on and I really was fascinated with and started to actually regress a lot of the metrics to understand. And we'll come to this in the research report analysis bit later. So it's pulling from all those different historical tools to try and fit that into this new asset class, which exhibits the same characteristics in many ways because it's still humans who are trading it, But there's new data to look at.

16:11There's new data to try and find signal from, which is on-chain data. And so you have to apply a very multidisciplinary type approach, I think, to give a better understanding of what's happening in this asset class and in these markets and try and project forward. So there's two pieces. One is the smart contracts and talk through the two pieces you produce. Plus, obviously, you do video as well. yeah so um there's a couple of different angles here but um i focused on smart contract platforms so bitcoin and smart contract platforms and i and i think you know i think of the space and sort of delineated there's bitcoin and then there's everything else and everything else can be broken down into sectors and i've worked with a company called bitformance and i'd encourage people to go check out their website because you know in partnership with them we've developed a a index and a taxonomy um so looking instead of looking at like the entire market cap of crypto which is about 2.3 what we've done is we've created a top 200 index which is about 2.1 trillion so it's about 90 of the total market cap and then broken it down into sectors smart contract platforms outside of bitcoin and sort of what i call digital currencies is the second largest um is the second largest sector within the top 200.

17:30It's about 35 % or about 30 % currently. With Bitcoin, it's sort of wherever it is. You know, it's basically accounts for, Bitcoin and smart contract platforms accounts for about 95 % of the total market cap. And we can get into like where we think that will go in the future, whether more of the value accrues to the applications and the infrastructure plays like storage and compute and the AI themes that are popping up as well. but that's how it currently stands today. So what I wanted to do for the Real Vision community was focusing on the smart contract platform sector because that's where a lot of people naturally have their exposure, build up the analytics for that particular sector and then start to sort of move on to some of the smaller sectors and sub-sectors.

18:17So the product itself looks like a fundamental approach to viewing the markets but it also has a strong basis in breadth analysis and technical analysis as well. So the way I sort of see my role here, Raoul, is like a strategist at Merrill Lynch or one of the large brokerages in the US. When Michael Harnett puts out research on markets, it's multi-asset, multidisciplinary, but very much a quantitative sort of underpinning to everything. So trying to find the signal from all potential areas of analysis. So the reports are usually two a month. You get updates on the sectors that are performing and the subsectors.

19:05And then within the smart contract platform universe specifically, there's dashboards. There's dashboards which track the entire blockchain economy. So we'll come to that in a later part. But also dashboards would look at specific assets. And it's taken me a little bit of time to build these up. But now the Real Vision community that asked me, look, can you look at this particular asset in the smart contract platform universe? Well, we'll have all that data aggregated and that report can get produced or the cadence for these reports can increase. And so, you know, below the surface is a lot of other stuff.

19:39I'll just sort of mention it and then we can move on. but a momentum signal for these assets. So a systematic way to sort of look at the space. And if you're tired of sort of taking the narrative view or even looking at fundamentals, you may have a different view on fundamentals and just want to sort of trade the momentum, then there'll be sort of a momentum-based product, a portfolio approach for the Real Vision community as well as sort of the fundamentals as well. So there's a lot going on. yeah and then you also do we're going to get you doing more amas with that pro crypto community as well so that they can understand how you think but the other thing you do is you also do deep dives in content and so you you've done deep dives in sui you've done deep dives and stuff how do you think through those deep dives as well first start with the data so um you know it's it's pretty arduous to put all the different data sources that are available together in an aggregated fashion and then be able to sort of assess a particular protocol in a really comprehensive way.

20:46And we've now got to that point. So those deep dives that we've done on Nia, on Sui, Solana have been the result of a lot of that work. So unfortunately in crypto, there's no Bloomberg to get everything from, right? There's no Refinitiv or Reuters or Datastream where you can just pull all the data in. You have to work with multiple different data providers which poses its challenges and then trying to standardize that data and clean it up and then unify it into a database. But that's the sort of, we start there, Raoul, and from there you should be able to extract insights. And one of the things that I've been working on a lot is, okay, everyone knows what an active address is.

21:34Everyone knows that there are transaction fees and blockchains and that's additive to the economic value of these networks. Macaulay's law, again, it's a function of how many people are using the network and how much they're using the network and how much economic value that activity flows back to the validators on the network or results in reducing the supply through a burn function. So that's all really well understood. but I think there's a lot more work to try and get to the sort of second derivative second derivative metrics where you're sort of triangulating a couple of these different on-chain metrics to try and find signal so looking at you know whether it's the the transactions active addresses and fees in a holistic fashion to try and you know think about okay why is this asset value the way it is or whether this asset is actually more cheap in inverted commas versus another asset so that's really the i guess the where the research is going after we've you know aggregated all this data so the deep dives you'll see tables which look at you know the asset in terms of its growth and obviously everything in in in investing is about the rate of change of growth so if an asset is growing faster than the rest of the asset class then theoretically all things being equal that asset should do better so looking at the speed of network adoption is one of the things i really focus in on so it's looking at it's kind of like momentum from a technical perspective but on the fundamentals but how do you strip out false data as well because this there's a lot of renting of activity uh bad reporting how do you figure out what's real do you just need a bit of time and then you can see whether it's sustainable how do you how do you filter for that so it's something that i'm working through right now but to your point like there is a lot of number one there's a lot of fake activity and gaming because as soon as the protocols realized that analysts were looking at specific metrics, they then targeted those metrics to inflate them or game them, right?

24:01It happens on every blockchain. You would argue that based on the evidence that I've seen, Solana is actually one of the worst offenders, but it happens on every single chain. So how do you account for that? I think, you know, there's a huge debate raging about active addresses. Some people call it active users. I mean, I've used the term active user because it's just a nice way to frame it, but it's not really true, right? An address is not a user. So putting all the semantics aside, if you see users and fees increase. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet.

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25:41then you've got a fairly good understanding that that should be additive to the to the to the value to the market cap the price if you see a lot of users increasing and fees not not a constant increase in in fees then there's a mismatch there and there's maybe i'm not saying there is but maybe there is um some gamification or there's a huge increase in um you know spam activity or bots or cyble addresses trying to farm an airdrop or whatever so to your point about how you sort of filter it out you've i think you've got to look at smoothing all these metrics you know i had this i put up a tweet on solana this week and you know merd from the solana ecosystem came at me because the last couple of days of activity um you know fees and mev on the solana ecosystem skyrocketed on the back of a lot of meme activity whatever and to my point to him was like i don't look at it on a daily basis it's too volatile you have to smooth these metrics out so i'll apply a 14 day or a 30 day average and that means the indicators are less sensitive to the price but that's okay because what we're trying to do is we're trying to build a fundamental thesis and if you smooth out these metrics and you look at them like a the one month three months six months, 12 months, if they're all moving in the right direction, you can see that the ecosystem is less, the potential for gamification is reduced because, you know, you're just seeing it over a more sustained period rather than just a one week spike in activity.

27:18The other thing you and I have been talking about is trying to also think about Metcalf's law the the kind of number of applications that get built on top of the number of developers is another key thing that's even though i don't use formalized metrics for that generally i just kind of observe where people are building launching products are people using those products and is that bringing more developers into a space if you see that you kind of know it's real and it's going to be big yeah so i've got this data it's it's going to be surfaced in maybe the next report the one after but um you know some of the data providers will cover not only the blockchains but also the applications and so the the interesting thing here is if you go to a website like defi llama and you look at the leaderboard or if you sort the blockchains by the number of applications you'll see some large eye-watering number of applications on each of these chains right but thousands in some of the Ethereum ecosystem.

28:23And Solana, maybe it's like 400 or 500. When you filter these dApps for fees and you put a filter like, show me the number of dApps that are generating more than$100 a day, that number gets reduced dramatically, collapses. But that gives you a much more realistic sense of what is the economic value that is being created by the applications on these blockchains. So that's going to be an interesting metric. I actually featured it in the SUI report, or the SWE report, as I've been corrected in terms of my pronunciation. Where SWE is versus Solana is quite similar to where it was in 2021. in terms of the number of dApps that are actually producing that people are using is the right way to say it, right?

29:24Fees are just a reflection of usage. So the number of dApps that are actually being used on Sweep. So yeah, there's an argument to be made here that when you look at the, when you aggregate the fees that are generating income, then you get a sense of the GDP of that ecosystem or the gross domestic product of that blockchain. if we think about it in a sort of traditional macroeconomic sense. So yeah, it's a very interesting metric that will be surfaced in upcoming reports. Yeah, because I think of that as the businesses that get built on the economy. So call it Ethereum. The Ethereum economy, you're building businesses on top.

30:06You've got a population which is users. And what GDP are they creating is the total value of the chain in some respects. The other one that I know, again, you and I have been discussing where it really fits in is the layer twos versus the layer ones. Are they just pure large transactions, but small economic value, but enough transactions creates enough value over time? or is there value to the Ethereum ecosystem for layer two activity beyond just the fees that they generate or the amount of block space that they they use on the Ethereum network yeah I mean it's it's a it's a difficult one I mean nobody knows the answer to this yet I think well you could argue that it's been uh it has not been additive at the moment because you can see the underperformance in the Ethereum price.

31:02And I think that's, you know, the market can get things wrong, but the market price is truth at that point in time. And the market's interpretation of Ethereum's decisions on how it is scaling is such that mindshare and economic value or investment capital flows are being redirected to other blockchains. so I think I think that's I think that's going to be the case for the rest of the cycle to be honest I think Ethereum is undervalued versus its history and I think it's going to do really well this cycle if we see liquidity expand like we do and the relationship between asset prices and liquidity being what it is and then within the crypto So ecosystem, Ethereum being such a large percentage of overall fees from the base chain and L2s and TVL and all the other metrics, it's going to do well.

32:06It's going to go up. But I think it's going to underperform some of the faster growing networks. And I think that to some degree is a result of its scaling decisions. And how I've thought about this as well, and I could be wrong, I don't know, this is my working hypothesis. is it's kind of like a rope that they've added extra slack into by just building all of this stuff and the blockchain economy overall is not able to use the amount of capacity that Ethereum has built. But if the blockchain economy really grows in the next cycle, then ETH captures a huge amount because of this gigantic multivariant scalability that's kind of what's in my head and I could be wrong yeah and I think well I mean I think this cycle ETH underperforms but it might be the next cycle that that reverses um and I think a lot of the the issues that the the ecosystem is facing is interoperability and the UI experience and And now that the ecosystem is much more focused on that, I think that gets solved.

33:26And so we come out of this cycle into the next cycle. And by the way, this cycle, we will see more large corporates, Web2 type companies coming on and probably choosing an Ethereum L2 to operate. To me, it's like it's Microsoft. It's like you don't get fired for using Ethereum. You can build on the layer twos. You've got plenty of scale. It kind of works. And then whether it's between Solana, SWE, stuff like that, we're building some sort of Apple ecosystem. Yeah. Maybe Microsoft. You know, Microsoft at the end of the 2010s, right? Everyone loved to hate it. And then it caught up. And then it just blew out.

34:14So, yeah. Yeah, it's exactly what's in my head. Well, let's wait and see. Now, I want to also run through your latest report. I think it's going to add a lot of value to people watching this. So this is your deep dive that came out four days ago called, so on October the 18th, Navigating the Bull, Liquidity Driven Crypto Cycle Projections, because I think it showcases your work. It's really important stuff. so I'd love you to uh you know run through at a top level of what people need to know um so they can they too can start extrapolating into the future because you know in the end everyone wants to know hey hey Jamie you know am I going to make some money here how far is this going to run how's it going to work and that's some of the questions you're addressing without you know without pinpointing things exactly you give it a brain a framework of understanding of what this could look like.

35:08Yeah, so thanks for framing that up for me because no doubt everything that I'm going to say from here on out is going to be wrong, right? In terms of the specific dates, the specific targets, but it was such a helpful exercise to go through it to try and at least make myself a little bit more aware of the possible outcomes for this cycle that we're in and assign probabilities to those outcomes to then give me a better sense as we move through the cycle and as things eventuate, whether the cycle is behaving according to the model and then adjust expectations on the back of it. But definitely not assigning everything to a specific outcome or a specific date.

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35:53But the report looked at really, Firstly, it started off by just, I guess, highlighting the two underpinnings for why I think, you know, one should invest in blockchain assets or in this asset class. And the first thing is obviously the debasement of currency and the, you know, the spiraling debt that we have and the level of accelerating debasement that is required to keep the whole system afloat. and so it was you know those conversations that we had back in 2022 rail i didn't know that you were going to create the the um the phenomenal framework of the everything code out of it but it gave me the you gave me the confirmation on a couple of um ideas that i was generating at the time which sort of allowed me to build my framework which um is really just a um a very small and at least sophisticated and much less sophisticated model as the one that you've developed.

36:55But nevertheless, all I did was I looked at these liquidity factors and there's a whole range of them and looked at and I backtested them and came down to essentially three. And I built a trend regime model or a liquidity model, which you can see on this chart here, which is these three sort of subcharts, which are color-coded red and green. All they are, it's a momentum filter on things like Global M2, which I use in this report extensively, central bank balance sheets, and the dollar, the DXY. And what I found backtesting these factors was over time is that it essentially keeps you out of the market when conditions are not favorable and improves risk-adjusted returns by investing in Bitcoin purely based on this signal.

37:45It doesn't give you the same upside, but it does limit your downside, which I think as a trend regime or a market regime filter is exactly what you want. So we can see what happened. I mean, the backtesting goes back to over a decade ago, but you can see here the last five years, we had the three indicators align in Q4 of last year. That gave us a move in Bitcoin from$30 ,000 to$70 ,000. a smart contract platform set a move of about 3x, and then everything started to tighten up in the second quarter of this year, and we had this sort of six-month pullback. We've come out of that, and now liquidity, the liquidity indicators that I use from August turned decisively bullish.

38:33So we have that as our backdrop. Then the other aspect to the thesis on blockchain or crypto asset class is the network growing. So this is, you know, we hope that we'll get this data inside the RV platform. So it's not coming to our readers in the form of a report every couple of weeks. It's something that they can sort of access and tap. But for now, these reports will be showcasing updates on how well things are tracking. And we can see here, there's a lot going on in this dashboard, Raul, as you can see. but if we just sort of focus on the column which looks at the one year percentage change so over the last one year if we look at the market cap for smart contract platforms it's risen by that 92 when we look down below in the network activity section you can see that active addresses daily transaction fees stablecoin transfer volumes are well over a hundred percent and one of the things i sort of look for is like is the network activity outpacing the change in the market cap or the prices so that for me is a is a very strong signal and if you look at the percentile rankings on the far right column you can see that for most network activity metrics they are except for fees they're in the 95 percentile or above so you know we're almost at all-time highs in most metrics but yet the market cap is about 13 % below.

40:12It's in the 87 % also. That's an incredibly bullish line in my view. So as we look to what's like the six-month percentage change column, market cap is down 28%. Again, just about everything except for fees is up a lot. And fees is down partially because Ethereum went through the upgrade where it slashed fees, which is, I think, an incredibly constructive thing for the blockchain economy. But that shows up in that metric with a large decline over the last six months. We could think of slashing fees as cutting taxes in the Ethereum economy. So you've cut taxes in the hope that it brings new economic activity, I guess.

41:01Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's a long term, very, very constructive. and if you look at just sort of one time series chart if you look at daily active addresses for the aggregate of blockchains which is the line in blue overlaid with the market cap of the smart contract platform sector you can see that the sector market cap is basically been going sideways or down for the last six months but we've seen a breakout to the upside in daily active addresses and it just reminds me of what happened in 2020. Back in 2020, if you look at the blue line, it broke out to a new all-time high in the middle of that year.

41:45But the actual sector market cap was down about 50%. It was a 50 % drawdown at that point from the 2017 cycle. So, you know, in a lot of the work that I've done has looked at the um the art with the you know regress these metrics and at the aggregate level rail it's quite interesting all of these metrics at the aggregate level when you total them all up at r squareds of like 60 70 which are pretty strong when you look at the individual assets the correlation breaks down a lot more and that's what i found when i was doing that metcalfe's law thing it was like it was bizarre but when he put them together and i just used two things in the end total value transacted plus um active addresses the r squared was really high yeah and it's it's it's the nuance of of the crypto economy when you look at the networks there's all this idiosyncratic risk you and you need to look at holistically which is which is the key point because it's not an individual so i know a lot of people focus on tvl well tvl is the size of the financial sector or defense spending, if you think of it in terms of securing chain activity, whatever it is, it's only a part of the economy.

43:03And you can't say, you can't look at the US economy and just look at defense spending and understand what the total US economy is. Yeah, you have to sort of triangulate. And a lot of those metrics like TBL and fees are extremely dependent on the price. So, you know, the TBL numbers are denominated in the price of the token, the token goes up, those numbers go up with it. So it looks like they're growing. But sometimes, unless you sort of delineate the real growth, it's very hard to pass whether there's actually more capital coming in, in terms of TDL, versus just people speculating on the token.

43:43So it's, yeah, it's tricky. But the aggregate level, you get a very clear signal that higher adoption metrics means higher market cap for the space. And so what I did was I used that as the underpinning and then we started to talk in the report about the projections. And I go into some regressions and things like that, but in the report, I sort of go back to my first projection for the cycle, which I did back last year in sort of Q2 of 2023. And my view is that I just had this very simple sort of outlook for the Bitcoin price as being sort of proportional in nature. It's exponential, but it is actually starting to immoderate in terms of the cycles.

44:37And so I applied just a, I think what was a very common sense sort of proportionality sort of discount, looking at the previous cycles, which are these blue bars that you can see here. These are the returns from the trough to the peak in the previous cycles. And then the next three bars in different colors are sort of the projections based on, you know, the proportionality of the trough to peak move for this cycle. And so my base case was actually the bullish, the bullish projection of about 170 ,000, which is half the trough to peak return of the previous cycle. and i still use this in in the modeling in the report because um number one i want to keep myself you know i want to be accountable to what i've said in the past but i believe that this you know is just a very common sense approach and then we sort of go with some more sort of um statistical ways of looking at it so then i sort of think about okay we understand that global liquidity drives asset prices what is the what is the the correlation or the how much do these different metrics explain the Bitcoin price.

45:43And I should back up a little bit too. The projections in the report are for the entire market. But I started Bitcoin because it's the benchmark asset. Bitcoin dominance is well over 50 % today. What Bitcoin does, so does the rest of the market. So you have to sort of start there and then back out from there about the other sectors or the other assets in the space. But you look across these different sort of macro indicators or liquidity indicators. global m2 in the far right um has generally been the strongest predictor or um explanatory variable for bitcoin so from there i just really um gave a so from there i then looked at okay if global m2 explains about 70 to 80 percent of the bitcoin price what will global m2 do in this cycle if we look at what it has done in the past.

46:39So just looking at the way you can track the trough to peak moves in Bitcoin, you can do that in Global M2. And I wanted to understand generally, how much does Global M2 expand and contract? And how long are those expansions and contraction periods? And so that provided me with just some general averages that I could apply in my modeling for the crypto cycle. And so what I found was that generally M2 will expand by about 34 % if you will take. The contractions are a lot shorter because, as you know, debt must always expand in a credit-based system. So we have these small contractions, shallow contractions, And we have these longer, larger expansion periods.

47:38And that aligns with my thesis about the fall Bitcoin season, the crypto seasons, where winter is the contraction and then spring, summer and fall is generally an expansion. Yeah, that's right. And it tends to correlate to the four years. So if you look at the number of days, contraction is roughly around sort of nine to 10 months. Expansions are around three years. three and change. So yeah, so you've got your three seasons in the expansion period and that the winter is your contraction. So based on that, if you look down at the bottom of the table, it just says that Global N2 could peak out at about 127 trillion this cycle.

48:24And based on the duration of previous cycles, it should top out at some point, maybe in Q1 of 2026, specifically January, according to the model. And then we'll have the crypto winter, as you call it, sort of trough out or bottom out in Q3, Q4 of 2026. And so, again, this is just that projection on the time series of global money supply. But then we have to sort of consider, what does Bitcoin do in relation to global money supply? And if you just overlay the two time series, Bitcoin peaks before global money supply peaks. Bitcoin sniffs out the change in global monetary conditions very, very well.

49:20At least it has in the past, and I hope it continues to do so. And generally that's just because if you look at the rate of change of global M2, a slowing rate of change, it could still be positive. It could still be going up. But as soon as that starts to moderate, Bitcoin understands, or people trading Bitcoin because of its properties understand that actually that the end is nigh. And so if we look at the actual time it takes generally for Bitcoin or the period it usually peaks before the global M2 peak, it's roughly 160 days based on previous cycles. It's been as narrow as 116 days and as long as 222 days.

50:06And in terms of the troughs, they generally trough around the same time. So if you sort of back out from January, the global M2 peak, projected peak, you kind of get this Bitcoin peak that looks to be around August. So from there, what I did was, okay, I've got a sense of timing. What are the range of outcomes to the Bitcoin cycle based on global M2 and this relationship where Bitcoin peaks before global M2? This is kind of very similar also to our everything code, our forward-looking basis of global liquidity. It comes to the same kind of conclusions, I think. Okay. Well, I mean, you've obviously been a huge influence in the way I've thought about things.

50:58but this is like, there was a couple of different ways I wanted to approach this, but I actually just felt like the most, yeah, the most explainable is just to look at the linear growth of the Bitcoin chart from sort of 2013. And this chart, you can see cuts off down the bottom left-hand corner just so you can sort of fit things in. But it's really that linear chart from the 2012 period. So you cut out those first really two years, which were just, you know, I don't think the liquidity and, you know, where Bitcoin was traded has a lot of meaning towards the forward projection of the trend. If you look at that linear growth, you can see that the potential for Bitcoin to reach certain levels this cycle.

51:47So my base case is if we just look at global M2 and back it out to August, which was where the Bitcoin cycle peaks, that infers a price of about$100 ,000 on Bitcoin, which I am placing as a potential outcome, but a very low probability outcome. my proportionality forecast is 170 000 that was the one that i uh that i produced last year um when bitcoin is more or less still in a bear market and then you've got these more optimistic scenarios where maybe bitcoin gets back just to the mean the red line of the linear price chart which would imply a price of around$234 ,000 and then something crazy, where it goes absolutely parabolic and maybe up to one standard deviation.

52:41So that's the range of outcomes. The question is like, what probabilities do you assign to each of those potential outcomes to come up with some sort of grounded probability weighted projection? And so, as I mentioned, Global M2 regression line of 100 ,000 is sort of like my base case or worst case. And then all I've done is I've looked at these other potential outcomes and assigned a probability. I don't think Bitcoin is going to go parabolic to 500 ,000 this cycle. I see 500 ,000 in the future, not this cycle. So it's a very low probability. And the outcome is just this probability weighted market forecast of 189 ,000 for Bitcoin by August of next year, which will give it a market cap of around 3.75 trillion.

53:30Seems, you know, for those uninitiated, seems crazy perhaps, but all I've done is taken, you know, previous trends and also regress it against global liquidity, which is at this point, probably one of the safest bets, right? In terms of what that particular macro liquidity variable will do. and then form a basis of where I think the cycle will end and also get to. It's fascinating. I've used similar ideas of a probability of a short stunted cycle, a normal cycle and a blow off top cycle. My guess, my probabilities are the shorter stunted cycle less so because we've had this long corrective period and liquidity seems to be coming as expected um something like so i would give that kind of a 10 weighting something like a 60 waiting for that mid-tier so that's somewhere between 180 and 250 kind of where you get to and then you know the top of the band that that blow off top i've probably got slightly higher odds.

54:50But who the hell knows? And you've gone into it in a more systematic way to me. Now, part of what you've done here is you've assumed a Bitcoin dominance of 53. Why that? And why does it not move around? Because kind of if we get a blow off, my guess is Bitcoin dominance goes down because that tends to be an old super cycle. How do you think through that i didn't include the chart but it's in the it's in the report um when people look at bitcoin dominance typically what they're doing is they're going to trading view and they're looking at the bitcoin dominance chart which is like a default chart so the bitcoin dominance that i'm referring to is slightly different because i'm using bitcoin dominance within the top 200 so the one you see on trading view i think is around 59 percent in my top 200 bitcoin dominance is around 63 % currently.

55:47So it's slightly higher in the top 200. It takes up a larger share. So I see it dropping. Now in the Bitcoin dominance that I use, it tends to get as high as 70 and as low as 40 from the previous two cycles. So that's kind of like the range. So 53 is pretty much in the middle. I don't think this cycle Bitcoin actually, Bitcoin dominance drops as much as it has in previous cycles. I made mention of this in the report, and I've talked about it in a report back from April about the increasing use of Bitcoin as collateral. I think Bitcoin's moneyness is increasing with every new use case of it underpinning as a collateral for something else.

56:36So what have we seen that have been really positive developments in this regard this year? We're seeing the creation of staking protocols on the Bitcoin blockchain, which allow Bitcoin holders to stake their Bitcoin in other proof of stake networks without it leaving the base chain. so while some people will want to do absolutely nothing with their Bitcoin because it's their the pristine collateral for their life and they can't afford any they can't afford to risk it in any way shape or form other than just hold it with the private keys or multisig or whatever and not do anything with it there's going to be a percentage of that 1.3 trillion dollar market cap value they're going to say hey I do want some yield and they're going to seek that out in a couple of different tools And then you've got Saylo's doing it, you know, in a sort of less transparent way with large banking intermediaries by the sound of it.

57:40JP Morgan, I think he mentioned. So if that's a, yeah, so I mean, how much Bitcoin does he hold? I've no idea anymore. Yeah, it's about 1%. So maybe it's 100. I don't know. So I always had in my mind there's probably like 10 % of Bitcoin holders. So that's unlocking$130 billion in value to underpin or form collateral for other things, including namely proof of stake now with the blockchain economy. So that's one. But obviously, you've got the potential for nation states as well. And I've been of the view that this will be the year that that becomes a reality. it doesn't look like it's going to become a reality in 2024, but I have this suspicion that several countries are holding Bitcoin as of today, namely through their domestic mining operations.

58:35Whether they ever bring that to full light in a public forum, especially if you're a BRICS country or some country that's sort of sitting in between the two world blocks at the moment, you don't want to sort of make that known. Or even if you're inside one of these blocks like the Western block, It's just not convenient for you to be going around talking about holding Bitcoin because it is controversial. I think that's starting in a very, very small way. And so you've got the nation state level, which is nascent, but potentially starting. You've definitely got it happening within the crypto economy.

59:16Bitcoin is going to collateralize proof of state blockchains. and then you've got the individual themselves where in this cycle, I mean, I see them in Australia. There's a couple of companies who are doing lending against Bitcoin for the purposes of either private loans, but also home loans, which I see it increasing the use case for given the unaffordability of property that people have this huge Bitcoin stack and maybe not much else and they need that to need to actually find utility for that to buy property. So I just think that actually that's my thesis as to why Bitcoin dominance doesn't go down to the depths that it has in the previous cycle.

59:59And from that assumption, which obviously could be wrong, you can sort of work out, back out what the rest of the asset class could be worth in this scenario where Bitcoin peaks in sort of August. And the other way I've also looked at it, is I've done the same thing with the log regression, the linear log regression channel, and do it with total market cap. I get slightly higher numbers, but again, it depends whether you take the back to the mean, the one standard deviation, whatever. That's where I got to the kind of 10, blow off top 15. You've got not wildly different. You're slightly more conservative than me, which I'm very comfortable with as well.

1:00:41The other part of this is, how do you see going forwards from here alts versus bitcoin and which alts are you focused on at this point in time as your outperformers for the cycle obviously things change everything else so i i see um that the rest of the the market will will in order for bitcoin to fall from In my top 200 model, 63 % to 53%, it means that the rest of the market sort of outperforms. Maybe not as much as it has in the previous cycle for the reason that we just went through. But the five sectors from the big performance, top 200, digital currency, smart contract platforms, DeFi, infrastructure and applications.

1:01:34I've just, in the report, I go through some projections for what I think they could do this cycle. And so my projection is based on that Bitcoin number, that maybe the total market cap gets to$7 trillion. And I think smart contract platforms do better. But I think the area that actually would be quite interesting to watch is the infrastructure sector. Within the top 200, it's a very small percentage. It's only 1.59 % today. but I think it could get to as high as 4 % which would be a strong outperformance. So if you break down the bitformance sector, infrastructure sector into subsectors, you get computing and networking, you get the oracles, you get pure AI plays like BitTensor and Fetch but you also get the adjacent AI plays like render and a cache in the other subsector, which is computer networking.

1:02:39So that's the sector as it is, sorry, the sector and the subsector breakdown as it is today. It also includes IoT, some very nascent and a lot of subsectors that have not found strong product market fit. So it's highly, highly speculative. But even though I have yet to form a very strong thesis around the AI crossover with crypto, I'm assigning a higher, assigning a probability, a very high probability that that subsector, sorry, the sector does very, very well in this coming bull market or the bull market that we're in and the extension into next year. But even if you, I guess, well, I can come to this in the next chart, but that's essentially the sector breakdown rail.

1:03:30So I think smart contract platforms go from 27.3 % today to 33.5%. That means it outperforms Bitcoin. DeFi is an interesting one. There's a narrative in the market that's been building up with some analysis done from a couple of analysts that the DeFi sector is primed to outperform. And I'm sympathetic to that view. I really think that that sector, because of the amount of fees that it's generating and the actual relative attractiveness of the valuations within some of these protocols, that if the institutions do come into the space, if the regulatory environment improves, they'll look at the DeFi sector very closely because you've got protocols that are working, that are actually generating real income.

1:04:22whether it's Uniswap or Aave. And they don't, I mean, they trade on, you know, crazy multiples relative to, you know, NASDAQ or some of the other tech sectors. But if we look at just the attribulation of growth and the continued use of blockchain rails, the merging of DeFi and CIFI or traditional finance, you know, we had the Fed governor Waller this week come out and say and sing the praises of DeFi and why DeFi is going to be so beneficial to the banks and the centralized entities. So I don't know whether he's talked himself out of a job or whether that's a view of more of the junior middle management within the Fed, I don't know.

1:05:05But it's such an interesting presentation that he did. I'd encourage everyone to go look at it and the things that he said. I think the DeFi sector should theoretically do well, but using a sort of a relative value or a momentum approach, When it breaks out against Solana or Civi or Bitcoin, that'll be the signal that that narrative is turning into reality. Maybe just moving on to the asset view, and this will be the last one. It does go into the assets that I like and also the subsectors as well. So specifically to your question, Raoul, the assets that I like are Bitcoin. I still hold Ethereum.

1:05:52I don't think it will perform as well as Solana, Sui or Nia this cycle. And in terms of what this means, some of the RV community was asking me, what's my projections on Sui and Nia? And I looked at really, okay, what's the current market share for these assets today? What do I think it could get to in the bull market? and that's how I arrive at the targets on the far right, which are admittedly very aggressive. But this cycle, SWE's is about a million daily active users generating about$30 ,000 in daily fees. Nier is two and a half, three million daily active addresses generates about sort of$20 ,000 in fees.

1:06:40in a bull market they'll effectively double solana got to the same valuation in the last cycle only on a million daily active addresses so it tells me one thing it tells me that valuations are compressing like the the the amount of premium that's being placed on these assets is declining which is i think sensible because no one knew how to price these things in the last cycle but just to see these these assets or these networks in this cycle have way more users than the most popular non-Ethereum chain in the last cycle, produced way more fees than Solana did in the last cycle. Betrayed at a significant discount, I think gives you some sort of pathway to them going up a lot for the rest of this cycle.

1:07:28And I think you've seen this as well, the chart of, and you talked about it earlier, SWE versus Solana last time. It's very similar. The metrics are similar, as you say, Yes, their metrics are better this time around, same with near, but they're very similar kind of adoption curves and what gets the attention and drives the performance. So, I mean, these are pretty decent sized targets. And we'll see again, you're not saying this is exactly what you think it is, but this is a framework of understanding and how these things can perform, which I think is amazing. Now, why have you got memes so low in performance when the market's utterly captivated by this as the biggest performer?

1:08:13So I think at the moment in the top 200, the meme coin subsector is worth about 2%. And that's mainly Doge and Shiba Inu, I guess. Yeah, it includes Bonk and Whiff. And I think there's maybe eight or nine in it. like every quarterly rebalance, there's a new one that comes in because it reaches the liquidity requirements and the market cap requirements for entry into the index. So it's growing. But yeah, I still have it like, you know, outperforming the other subsectors except for AI. But yeah, I think maybe it's because I don't fully appreciate the meme coin phenomena. I think it will go up a lot it'll probably peak well before the rest of the market does I'm looking for some sort of early indication of that petering out because it's going to be very important for the cycle because it generates Mincoins generate so much fee income for certain chains namely Solana so yeah maybe those numbers are probably understating it One of the ways to look at it that I think you'll find super helpful is just look at the NFT stuff from last cycle versus ETH and when it peaked.

1:09:34It's the same thing. I don't know when it peaked and, you know, I haven't looked at that analysis, but it's exactly the same type of attention capture. It onboards the normies. It drives everybody's hopes and dreams. They're slightly different because NFTs are a multiplier on top of the underlying chain value. while the meme coins are priced in dollars. So it's somewhat different. You don't get the same life-changing gains, actually, that NFTs did, which nobody talks about. But NFTs, if you, you know, ETH went up under 45X or whatever from the low and CryptoPunks went up from whatever ETH, call it half an ETH to 200 ETH or whatever the number was, that multiplier is insane yeah yeah and look i mean i need to do a lot more work on it i think the the one way you can play memes is sort of some sort of momentum system because i haven't really wrapped my head around like like i know i think we've got murad on the uh on the platform in the next week or so to talk about his thesis and how he values these uh these tokens which is fascinating i certainly don't have an edge there and i think i'm gonna get anselman as well to talk about how he trades them but yeah interesting it's a small allocation to me but i just noticed i'm looking at yours and you've got bigger performance from from single you know blockchains than you have from from the subsector that everybody's focused on with their hopes and dreams i prefer the allocation that you've got because i think memes is a sector my gut but it's the dispersion is so high and dispersion so risky and the attention spans can be so short that you it's a very different thing it's it's much less of a set it and forget it sector it's like you need to be super active in that sector and i find it too hard but yeah like some of the some of the individual meme coins themselves will go up many many times more than the sector will but the sector includes ones that will underperform and fail so that may you know contribute to the aggregate performance being where it is but yeah jamie i this work is is uh nothing short of brilliant i don't know anybody who's doing any work like this and i'm very proud to have you in real vision not just part of the pro crypto product and community but our overall community i know you work actively with the rvip community particularly in australia um and you know i want to make sure that more people get access to you across the platform that you're out in public more because I think you know you've got a special talent you're working on some incredible stuff and as part of that I think what we should also do is unlock this piece of research for anybody who joins the platform so if you're watching this on YouTube I think we'll make it to all the free members as well just so they can get familiar with your work have a grounding foundational understanding because I think it's useful and obviously for those people on the platform I think you get an idea of what we're doing in pro crypto and why it's such important work.

1:12:45And if you take your investing in crypto seriously, you know, this kind of work is very, very rare. The one thing that we should mention, Raoul, is that the purpose here of like really enriching the Real Vision pro crypto community with is data as well as reports and access to analysts and all the great content and interviewers or interviewees that you bring onto the platform. But we really want to get this, you know, more data into the hands. And the Real Vision platform itself already has data embedded, charts embedded. And so we'll be working towards getting more of this on-chain data and these sort of customized data sets into the hands of users or into the, you know, the pro crypto tier on the platform as well.

1:13:33Yeah, much like we also do with the macro investing tool, MIT. you know that's something else we want to automate more of there's a lot we can do with this stuff just to give the power back to people so listen thank you for everything you do um it's incredible research can't wait to see all of the stuff you come up with and see more of you on the platform and out in the world spreading your um incredible work so well done mate and look forward to seeing you soon thanks so much ral appreciate it so i thought brilliant conversation there with jamie I think it gives us a basis of understanding. I love how he uses probabilistic analysis.

1:14:11That's how I see the world is we don't know the outcomes, but we can look at the range of outcomes and the probabilities that align with it. I love how he's broken things down into his dashboards. The work that he's going to build for ProCrypto is amazing. Also, trying to show the different types of areas or sectors within the market, how they They might relatively outperform, underperform. What's going on? I think it gives us a really good framework to test against. Now, Jamie's not expecting to be fully right, but within his range of probabilities, he should be somewhere pretty correct. And I think it gives us a really good way of navigating this.

1:14:51You know, my takeaway is, yeah, there's some tokens that are going to do really well, whether it's SUI or whether it was Nier, and I'm sure he'll find some others as he does more analysis. But also the sectors, the AI sectors, how memes are going to perform, all of that stuff. Anyway, super cool stuff. I hope you enjoy it. Don't forget, the full report is on realvision.com. It's free for everybody. So go to realvision.com and sign up. If you're a Real Vision member, knock your socks off, enjoy it. And maybe come check out Real Vision Pro Crypto. Yes, it's not the cheapest service in the world, but fuck me, it's good.

1:15:26All right, take care. picture yourself on a beach retired early and enjoying financial freedom if this is your dream then now's the time to level up your investing game and real vision can help you we arm you with the knowledge the tools and the network to succeed on your financial journey on your own terms take control of your future and visit realvision.com forward slash free that's real vision.com forward slash free.

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From the publisher

👉 Be one of the first 500 traders to get a $20 credit when you deposit $50. Use this link kalshi.com/realvision

Raoul Pal welcomes Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts to break down his latest Deep Dives report, Navigating the Bull: Liquidity-Driven Crypto Cycle Projections. Raoul and Jamie discuss their respective approaches to research and where they believe crypto prices could end up by the end of this cycle. Recorded on October 22, 2024.

👉 For a limited time: Check out Jamie's full report for FREE here: https://app.realvision.com/report/navigating-the-bull-crypto-cycle-projections

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