Macro, AI, and Bitcoin - The Future of Money ft. Jordi Visser

28:01This is the way the Fed effectively stopped the run on a lot of the banks was say, okay, you can turn all these treasuries in. You don't have to mark them to market. We'll give you the cash form. So it's a swap facility. But the thing is, let's assume that you get a three-to-one leverage on that and it's$221 billion. The thing people don't realize is that the market cap of China is only$6 trillion, which means, and it's the second biggest in the world. The US stock market is now up towards$60 trillion. So if you convert it in, you're talking right off the bat of about a$2 trillion stock facility on the first.

28:36Yeah, equivalent. And I just think people are fading it and they're underestimating it. I did a whole big thing on this this past Saturday in my video thing on YouTube where I said, okay, everything looks to me like we're going to have a little reflationary spike here where markets are going to be led by gold and by copper and a whole bunch of different things. I'm seeing the Asian currencies rally. This was before China. And what I said was the big negative is, and the thing that's kept it down has been that China's real estate market has been a disaster. Prices were going down. They were down again last month.

29:09You had the fixed asset investment in real estate down almost 10 % year over year. This is a big thing that China did. And they did it along with mortgage changes and along with bank changes. So I think they're kind of putting their all-in ships right now. And I'll end it with this. When I was in Brazil in 1998, August of 98, Russia had just defaulted. The Chinese market was under attack through Hong Kong, and their peg was at risk of being - It was very busy for us in those days, if you remember. Exactly. And they announced that they were going to buy stocks. And everyone, I just tweeted this today, the low for the last 30, 25 years or 27 years was that month when they said they'd buy stocks.

29:54And over the course of the next 18 months, the Chinese stocks through Hong Kong were up about 150, 200%. So I just think what China did is probably underestimated. And Bank of America's fund manager survey They listed their number one most contrarian position was long China. So it comes at a time when sentiment is bad. And when you kind of line up a story that people don't believe on something that the Fed hasn't even done, the Fed has not announced that they're going to come in and buy stocks. We have this plunge protection team, which never discloses what they're doing. China literally said, go buy stocks.

30:27We're going to give you more money if it doesn't work. I think at this point, I wouldn't fade China. Even if it fails, I don't think it'll fail for three months. so i've got a join the dots kind of view on all of this uh on how big what is happening i want to lay it out to you because i think it's just interesting to discuss it about a year ago randomly the governor of california turns up in beijing newspapers don't really talk about it he turns up now he's the governor of california he's a non-geopolitical character he's squeaky clean in geopolitics he turns up as opposed to meeting the uh um the head of an equally large province which would be normal diplomatic quorum he meets she then he goes hey she come back to my place doesn't bring him to dc doesn't bring him to the Yuen brings him to San Francisco.

31:29All of the tech guys get wheeled in. Elon cancels his trip to India, goes straight to China. Okay, so that was like, that set something off as like, what the hell is going on here? Then Yellen goes twice to Beijing. She's never been before. And I'm like, huh. And this is the time when the yen was collapsing. The dollar was getting too strong for everybody. And obviously, China doesn't want to devalue its currency. So it's trapped. It can't do anything. So here's my thinking. This is all connected. The US has three TSM seed plants. So this now fits into AI as well. There's three TSM seed plants being built in Arizona.

32:21They will be done in about four years, five years, let's say. Germany has one. Japan has one. So that is the Western world with their foundries, their chip foundries. Nobody wants to go to war over this, but AGI and ASI are so important, it's the equivalence of the nuclear bomb. So therefore, Game Theory would suggest, unlike every pundit who says China's going to invade Taiwan and the US is going to go to war. There's no way that's going to happen. Too catastrophic for everybody, including the one thing they all need to survive, Taiwan semi. So Gavin Newsom went to Beijing and said, I've got a deal for you.

33:08The same deal that Margaret Thatcher took to the Chinese, which is, we'll let you have it, which is what they did with Hong Kong. But we need to be able to build our plants first. so you don't do anything and we're going to split up taiwan semi it's the only way we can do this without war and nobody can afford war as part of that obviously the europeans near buy-in so the next trip she does almost immediately was an unannounced trip to europe so he goes to europe and what do the europeans want the most putin out so the first thing that happens is she goes back There's a bit of trade deal stuff going on, hooting straight over to Beijing.

33:54Next minute, they're announcing that maybe there's a peace term to come to now, and we'll keep some of the territory. Because I think Xi said, listen, this is bigger than you, Vladimir. This is what we have to do to peace then. On the economic side, I think that obviously the Chinese were under huge pressure because of the massively deflationary bust going on and they needed dollars right because all of their property sector is a dollar borrower but the US has them by the bulls with that the dollar was getting stronger it's just destroying everybody so they kind of let the Japanese do their thing which is they get everybody one way in the trade and then they completely destroy it by giving the Japanese all the liquidity they need to intervene, which then starts the trend of the dollar reversal, which is what everybody needs.

34:49All emerging markets need everybody else. And it allows the Chinese the room to growth because Janet wants Xi to buy her bonds. She's got a lot of them. And those guys couldn't because of the currency and the slowness of their economy. So she's like, OK, we need to sort this out as well. So I think there is a grand bargain that is playing out. And finally, I thought I was mad with all of this stuff. It came up from the Global Macro Investor Roundtable. And then each time it's been kind of proven right that Beijing announced that they'd made an agreement with the US. So the US has agreed all of this.

35:29The Japanese run the euro dollar market. So by giving the Japanese liquidity and allowing them to intervene, it allows it to flow into China. So I think there's a big game of play. So to your point, I think the Chinese are very serious and everybody wants them to be, including the U.S., because we can't have one leg of growth missing. Yeah, what's really interesting. So, you know, that's a movie story and I'll just go with it. Um, the part that I think is the most important from my perspective of, as you know, I like to look at what assets did and then the actions that happened. So there's absolutely no doubt that if you were, were going through this with people a month ago, that it's been reinforced with what's happened this month.

36:18Now, the dollar yen situation and this. And by the way, we did, we, this came up at the GMI round table in April. Oh, okay. Any of this happened? Yeah, even before dollar yen. So the interesting thing about dollar yen is I mentioned that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority came into the market in August of 98. The yen, obviously, famously went through and took at that time Tiger and Julian out. Julian out, yeah, that's right. So we had a similar move. And if you go back to 2016, we had similar moves in the Asian currencies to start off that year as well. And again, there was the quote unquote China-US or the Shanghai-US accord in March of 16.

37:07I think people do underestimate the coordination when things are necessary. And the fact that China did something, the biggest easing they've done and announcing something they had not announced, which, you know, their stock market is not as big as their property market. But I think they've started to realize that the reason that these other places, because Japan obviously has been buying equities and that's helped their stock market, your stock market needs to get local animal spirits. If you're trying to change sentiment, the stock market's really important. So I think China probably, there probably was some coordination that went on.

37:47And if it wasn't intentional, it's still, hey, the Fed's easing. We're now free to go because the Fed can't turn around and hike. I will say, and since we did differ on this, and I'll let you go. If you asked me right now the risk for the next regime shift, I feel very, very strongly that PMIs are going higher between now and the end of the year around the globe, that that will lead to a bottoming in CPI, which will happen in October, because that's when we'll get the September data. And then the year-over-year comps will start getting easier for the US. A bounce in the PMI will take the goods inflation higher.

38:33But there's one thing, and I sent this in a tweet, and you and I have not talked about this. One of the things I did with AI and I use it for is to say, hey, let's recreate a proxy for things. Bitcoin doesn't have a story. So I finally tweeted it today because I created a proxy for Bitcoin. And it's a certain amount of weighting of gold for liquidity, copper for AI, because there's just you're going to need a lot of copper and we have a shortage. And copper's acted extremely well. And then queues for what I consider to be safe, large cap investment into innovation, which is where Bitcoin is now because it's one of the largest assets in the world.

39:11It's not Cathie Wood's arc. It's not one of these things that's less liquid. It's not a private thing. It's a big asset. And that thing broke out today. And I just think with what China did, the number one story in the world is that liquidity from the major, the biggest money M2 in the world, China's money supply crossed over the U.S. in the great financial crisis. It's now twice the size. You always show your global, you know, your GMI liquidity thing. That's predominantly China money. and the number one strengthening part of it is when their currency strengthens, which fits in with what you said, and that's what's very interesting, you wouldn't think the Chinese currency would be strengthening on the back of liquidity measures and rate cuts and their yields moving lower, but it is, and I think that's a huge liquidity boom for the world because the yuan is getting stronger and it's the biggest money supply.

40:02In 2016-17 crypto cycle, we didn't get a liquidity boost from the US. They were trying to hike rates and they stopped because the Chinese said, whoa, stop. Remember, same shit was going on. Oil price was collapsing. Everyone was like, no, no, no, stop this. You're destroying everybody. So the US just stepped aside, didn't really add liquidity. And the Chinese did this again and added as much liquidity as possible. And the Europeans and the UK, after the Brexit, flooded liquidity. So you don't actually need the US because, as you rightly point out, Chinese liquidity is a big deal. So the question about that I want to ask is the property sector.

40:42Okay, so let's assume the Japanese will allow euro dollars to get into the Chinese market. Let's assume there is some reparation. It doesn't yet feel big enough for the property market. I get your point of the real estate market, but the property market is like it's a dead weight. Do you think there's more to come? Is this the draggy moment or not? so i think it's the droggy moment or is this the hkma intervening in the currency market before they did the big bazooka i has the bazooka been fired or are they just taking aim no i i think this was it and i'll tell i'll tell you why i i agree with you so let's just start with the most powerful deflationary forces in the world that cannot be stopped um are demographics and exponential innovation.

41:34You can't stop them. The Chinese situation for their property market, there's no way to turn that battleship. It's just, can you make it stop going down? Yes. You could get a little bit of investment side, but not without actually getting the collateral, as you mentioned, to start going higher. And the collateral is in the form of the assets and the only assets there are stocks and the property market so i just find they're in a japan-like situation there's no way for that to end but just like there was in japan you could have a year or 18 months of people thinking it's coming back that old hedge fund trade where they come in every every three or four years buy everything japan and then eventually get washed out again yeah i don't i don't i don't think um i don't think china can turn the property market.

42:25I think they can get the stock market up. It can get some animal spirits inside the property market. It can take some of the supply off and you can get it to move higher for a little bit, but I don't think it can change the property market. So much like the US, Europe and everybody else, they're just going to manage a slow debasement of the debts or whatever it is, just some slow way because nobody wants China to implode. Yeah. I mean, you've laid this out so many times for so many years about why Bitcoin is so attractive. You were there way before me. The more time I spent on it, the more I just realized that the anger I was listening to and all the problems of the bottom 70 % live paycheck to paycheck.

43:07There's more millionaires created inside Bitcoin every year than there is in the stock market. Yet the stock market goes up a lot. Really? Is that the case? Yeah. I mean, millionaires are being created in Bitcoin at an insane fast pace. And again, you and I've talked about how many owners there are in terms of wallets and how they kept growing. I'm actually astonished at how many macro people still either don't own it or say they missed it. When I just sit there and I'm like, do you realize that we had a complete bear market, like a dot-com bubble that unwound in the crypto market and Bitcoin made it to all-time highs while that other stuff is still sitting at zero, most of it.

43:52And yeah, there's Solana. Yes, there's Ethereum. So yes, there's Cardano. There's some that have stayed around, but the majority of things with inside that ecosystem have stayed near zero. So you destroyed a lot of wealth. You took most celebrities down. You had bankruptcies. And yet it's still going higher. And that's where I get into the point of the emerging markets. And specifically, I think Malay's speech at Davos was a very important milestone in terms of getting people to focus on something that I saw happen. I'll fast forward a little bit to the Brazil thing, but this is what makes me interested to talk to people about crypto.

44:32Bitcoin's a hard story to give to Americans because there's other alternatives of what you can buy. You can go buy NVIDIA. You can go buy the Qs. You can go buy whatever you want, and that stuff's going up. In countries like Argentina and Brazil, where you can't trust the bank, you can't trust the government, you can't trust the FX, well, they don't have another option. And that's where Malay was. And Argentina has got a rich history of being a place that's loaded with commodities, loaded with sophisticated commodity traders, but just hasn't been able to get out of its way. When I moved to Brazil in 1997, from 1986 to 1994, they had five currencies.

45:09So they constantly had to tell a story about what was happening. Bitcoin is happening, and it is a replacement for all people below the wealthy in their FX for exactly what you said, which is the reason the Brazilians had to keep changing the currencies was because the debasement was happening with hyperinflation. This is not hyperinflation. This is a slow default on the debt that's happening through debasement. And the people that are getting the most angry are the people that aren't part of the top 1%. Because they can't earn the assets. Exactly. And so this is the other side. And this will work out.

45:46It's global. Yeah. And Bitcoin, the uniqueness is it's fractionalizable. Exactly. But in 10 % of their paycheck, however poor you are or however rich you are, you're on equal footing and offsetting the debasement. That didn't exist. It has never existed. so it makes it you know which is why it's captured the world whether it's southeast asia latin america africa or new york city people kind of once you get it you get it yeah now i one thing and we haven't because we haven't spoken in a while i i did a video on bitcoin it was 40 minutes and the reason I did it is because this year, so sometimes you need a story to like have a lot of news articles that are coming out.

46:36You need stuff to happen. And what's happened this year in Bitcoin, not just Bitcoin, Bitcoin and stable coins in particular, to get the ETF launch happened to where you had a hundred and change percent run up leading into the event. And it still went higher in the month after, and now it's consolidated for the last six months. That's a good sign when you have a major event like that that everyone was looking for. You've had politics where they've had bipartisan issues that have made it through Congress. You have the accounting change, which comes into effect, the FASB change, which comes into effect for ownership, for people who want to have it on their balance sheet and how it gets marked to market.

47:16The stablecoin growth and the fact that Terraluna blew up. You had all these blowups, and yet stablecoin growth, they're now the 16th largest treasury owner in the world for stablecoins. And thinking about how this is a natural part for digital transactions, the AI agents I just wrote about, and the fact that this is an accelerant, you had the options that started today, all of this when a lot of the ecosystem has still been broken down. So it's been a huge year. And then you had a presidential candidate at the conference. You had RFK Jr. say you should put it in the Treasury reserves. Trump alluded to, well, we won't sell it.

47:59Whatever the case is, that is happening because a voting block in the U.S. of 30 to 50 million users of Bitcoin or crypto. In an election, every election is tight. Sometimes you have the electoral be different than the popular, which could be again this year. Every vote counts. Well, that means that crypto groups are going. And if you look at every part of it is just a major story. And it just says that it's time. And I think with copper going higher, like I said, and starting to go higher, this is the final part is it'll be viewed completely as an AI trade for a lot of reasons. But one of them is they're tied to electricity.

48:37So talk a bit about what you've been writing on talking about. Why AI and Bitcoin? You know, what is that relationship that people don't yet understand? Well, there's there's two parts that I think people should get. The first one is that digital payments are growing and eventually we're going to get to the point where digital payments extend to a way that has less friction. meaning there's a time element, there's a safety element. You're going to have more and more problems. I always laugh when people are like, well, what if people hack into Bitcoin? I'm like, well, people hack into your bank every single day.

49:17Like quantum computing, it's going to be easier to hack into banks than it will be into crypto. I mean, you want to have more safety. So you want cryptography. You want something that gets more powerful. There's an authenticity side. I think fakes are becoming, and I think you and I talked about this a year ago, that where AI absolutely fits in. And I think you mentioned for this election in particular, you're just going to have a lot of deep fakes. You just don't know what's real and what's not real. You mentioned the voice thing. You're not going to be able to tell the difference between a voice on the phone that your mother or your family member that's asking you for money and AI.

49:52And so you need authenticity. You need something that proves that you're the owner of a painting, the right phone or anything. So that's one side. And the digital transactions, as I mentioned, is something people should really read the McKinsey report on digital payments. Digital payments around the globe are going higher. And in other countries, it's an accelerating fact that they're using stablecoins more and more and more. And stablecoins will be the connection. So don't think of Bitcoin as an exchange of value, but think of stable coins and stable coins are within the ecosystem of Bitcoin.

50:27So that absolutely is going to be there. The other part is I do believe in the deflationary side. There is no way that the blockchain isn't the most deflationary. When you get rid of the middlemen, you've been able to reduce the cost of everything. And so the easiest way for the middlemen to be reduced is obviously through smart contracts. A smart contract should be done through AI agents. So if you buy a home, theoretically, all of those phone calls you have to make to your lawyer, to the insurance person, to all of these things, they all end up being money. They all end up being time. If you buy a house and the AI agent goes and does all of those pieces, you've now taken the cost down dramatically.

51:08You've eliminated most of the middlemen. That is going to be what's next. And that just leads to more need for the blockchain. And so when I explain this, this agent to agent stuff, right? Now these independent autonomous agents or non-autonomous agents, however they are, right? Let's use the house example. There's a ton of things. There's the kind of registering with the government, there's the legal stuff, whatever. However much that gets destroyed away, fine. But somebody has to pay for the compute and the electricity cost of the agents. So they're not free, but they're very cheap for sure.

51:45So now you've got micropayments because you'll need to thank the agent for doing its job by giving it not only the cost, but probably a small margin as well because that's how the world works. So those fractionalized instantaneously, because this can all happen instantly, as we know from AI, it can do all of this like that. So this is a micropayment that needs to happen at instant settlement speed. Well, the only way of doing that is blockchain. There is no other way of doing it. Yep, I agree. And again, people, I think, rightfully so, because the technology is not here yet in the way that they can feel it and see it.

52:25But with AI agents, this will change. And it will change without them knowing. The call centers will change. As Mark Benioff said in the All In Summit interview, they asked him when call centers would be replaced. And he said, before the end of the year, I mean, you'll be able to use AI agents. Now, whether or not that's the case or whether it's another year, whatever it is, you're talking about having a conversation no longer with a person who you know lives in another country to deal with your plane change. You're actually dealing with an AI agent who will pick up the phone on the very first time.

52:58And that's where you have to understand the efficiency. Every frustration that people have calling their healthcare insurer, calling whatever call center you make where you sit on the phone, you can't get a human being on there, you're trying to yell representative, nothing's working. AI agents will fix that inefficiency immediately. It has huge cost reductions. But once you do it once, you won't want to go back the other way. And that's why AI agents to me, as Brian Armstrong said from Coinbase, this is the accelerant for digital payments. Now, I'm starting to see society reorganize itself along the lines of accelerators and decelerators, the accelerationists and the decelerationists.

53:45And I think I'm starting, I'm speaking to David Matin, who writes Exponentialist with me and also part of GMI about technology, we're starting to think that is going to be the big societal divide, is those who will merge with the technology, embrace the technology, go with the technology that you and I are trying to do, right? And there's the group that will reject it. And that's much bigger than left or right or many other current societal constructs. because i mean one side the acceleration is are going to turn into super beings and the other side aren't going to want to see them these super beings and it's wrong and it's anti-religious and whatever it may be i i think about this a lot how what we understand as even politics today changes dramatically i mean as you were saying it i haven't heard the phrase I haven't heard it put that way, but what immediately came to me was religion.

54:54And, you know, it's hard to imagine a world where you can have exponential change where it doesn't create chaos. And you're talking in many ways of chaos. Yes. I'm sure you're at this point, Raul, and I had a conversation with a person who you probably know who had the same job we had when you were Goldman. I was at Morgan Stanley. This person was at UBS. And he's no longer in the industry. And he called me up after I wrote my paper, and he wanted to talk about how messed up the consumer confidence reading was that day and how it fits in the context. Now, when he and I speak, the reason we speak is because he wants to hear my views on the future because he knows that I only think in an accelerating way.

55:39I only think that way. And it's not easy to get your brain to do that. Like you have to when people say, well, we're going to be in a recession and we'll go. Then there'll be rate cuts. And I'm like, but I'm thinking about humanoids in three years. Like I'm not the concept of this being the last presidential election before there is humanoids. That doesn't mean anything to me. It's very hard to get your brain to do that in the same way that I think it's very hard for people to give up on religion, that once they've believed in it and it's been indoctrinated. So I think it creates chaos, just like the way people talk about young people.

56:12And I think there is a demographic side to it, for sure. That's why you have Luddites and whether you call them the decelerators. And then you have our kids, which are born and, hey, my kid's ADHD and is filled with anxiety. Yeah, because they're on a phone all day long and it's the digital world. I think it's moving so fast that it will create a lot of stress in the system. And that's why I never think ever the consumer confidence, what you're describing is the consumer confidence number will never go higher again in any meaningful way and stay there because you won't be able to find more than 50 % of the people that ever think things are good.

56:49I've gone so far down the AI rabbit hole now, not in terms of productivity. but a i think it's alive i think it's sentient i think it has consciousness not necessarily exactly in the same terms that a human would look at because humans want to only define everything so it's exclusively only humans can have those characteristics i've gone down that rabbit hole spent a lot of time there and i see a lot of evidence of that and i also starting to go back to the religious conversation starting to see many people interesting thought leaders in this space saying that actually all it's doing is tapping into the universal consciousness which was a weird thing that almost all religions have talked about but was scientifically not a proven thing clearly and now it's starting to feel like somehow this is everything is connected there's a it's a very philosophical rabbit hole i've been avidly reading books watching you know there's a incredible um one of the leading thinkers in ai called josh joshabak german guy you'd love them i'll ping them to you afterwards um they're just mind-blowing because basically they're going down the the rabbit hole of everything is compute and biological compute is the best substrate and we will move to biological compute we just don't understand the compute i mean trees compute i mean everything computes and therefore by some computation and some some larger computational misunderstanding whether it's to do with quantum theory or whatever that everything is actually connected in the same giant compute you know what's interesting is um i never i never thought about this until you said it but think about what stan lee came up with who who you know is the architect behind i think he is iron man you know so all of all the marvel um comics you know you watch iron man and you love the movie but the reality is he's the only one with alexa he's the only one with artificial intelligence and he's building stuff and talking to Jarvis all day long, but no one else has Jarvis.

59:06He's the only one. And you think about how interesting the race right now that you hear with inside Silicon Valley by the mega cap, by the hyperscale, mega cap tech companies, wherever you want to go, they're spending hundreds of billions of dollars. Why? Because it's an all out arms race for God. They want to get the AI God. Well, that's pretty much what Iron Man had was that, and he wasn't using it to make money. So what he put in there is it was being used to fight wars and to fight battles and everything was always a war and someone trying to go through. So I think there's probably a little bit of truth in that.

59:42That's why this time I don't think people can become positive because I think this kind of merging of artificial intelligence, which I don't care who you believe for people watching, like you really need to listen to a bunch of people and whether it's elon musk whether it's five other people take the five smartest ones and ask them when they think agi will be here this was not a concept a year ago that it would be here that soon but they are talking about phd intelligence within the next two years maybe three years you read that article i mean of all people appeared on my twitter feed evanka trump um retweeted let me see if i can find oh this is interesting i want to hear this one um it's called situational awareness and it's by somebody i've never heard of um oh wait is this the one you retweeted yesterday yeah yeah i i've opened it yesterday and i had chat gbt read it back to me yeah unbelievable did you read all of the because it was multi-chap massive and it's like it really lays out how fast this is happening and how big this really is Yeah, and that was from June of 24.

1:00:52And the interesting thing he said, so for people, you can find it. I mean, Raul tweeted it. I brought it up. Situational-awareness.ai by Leopold Aschenbrenner. Yeah. And he said, the important thing to me in reading it was he not only said, this is happening faster than we thought. He said, there's only about 100 people that know this, like tied into because you have to be and I, I listened to a macro podcast the other day, and the person had on an AI person, and he's asking a bunch of questions. And I don't know how old, how old the macro person is, but he's like us. So he's 60, 55, whatever.

1:01:32ever. And this is the, he literally said, now I haven't used ChatGPT for the last two years. And I was sitting there going, okay, if you haven't used it for the last two years, you've never used it because it hasn't been out for more than two years. Second thing is, what are you talking about? How can you be interviewing someone and you say you don't use it today? So this gets back into the decelerator and the accelerator. And then he said those magic words, okay, you've convinced me I need to use it. What should I use? What, what should i use it on and i just sit here so when you if people read what you sent out and they go through it you start to realize how fast this is coming and really smart people are talking about it like it's there and zuckerberg made a really interesting comment the other day he's like listen we all thought that by we would reach the limit of of um improvement of these models because these things are multiplying multiple x that article goes through it multiple x times every few months right now it's it's so fast and zuckerberg said we thought we'd run out after we trained it on a hundred thousand gpus and what we found is we're not even close and so you know yes we run out of all data this that article goes through it then it's synthetic data and then it's all the private data it's just and then it's all human action of everybody using and just endlessly builds.

1:02:55But the point being is we are not going to run out of ability of these models to grow. We've got model changes coming as well, GPT-5, a whole bunch of other stuff. And on the electricity, to come back to the macro side, I think if you've got a very smart computer that's close to AGI, which GPT-5 is going to be close, we will start solving a lot of the power issues now interesting enough what have the saudis just done today this morning they said forget the hundred dollar target right and oil's falling again because i saudi is also trying to build compute saudi's trying to i mean this is a global thing and nobody wants the power up and i don't think oil is the answer i think a distributed solar grid plus nuclear then there's the bloody microsoft essentially ramping up three mile island again to put data centers next to i mean what a time well that's why i don't think we will get to a point that the future is the problems are solved because i'm an oil is going to zero person in the same way that you're talking over time over time yeah yeah over time but i think for the next few years, we need to have a very large spike in copper.

1:04:20It needs to happen. I'm going to say, yes, that's an obvious trade. And I've also looked at that trade a lot. And of course, it'll go up with the business cycle. Will we get a copper super spike? Elon did the single most interesting thing was in the Cybertruck, he went from 12 volts to 24 volts, which had never been done in the history of automotive. He used something like a seventh of the copper because the power signal was stronger. Yep. And that's like, okay, but that completely changes everybody's copper. You know, I speak to, what's Dwight's surname, who runs Osprey, Dwight Anderson. Dwight Anderson.

1:05:04Yeah. And Dwight's very good at building this huge on the supply for all of this stuff. I just think Elon's just, he's open sourced the technology as well. And potentially that is going to change how we think about copy use, because there is not enough copper if we use copper in the same way we do today. Yeah. Here's the only thing I'll say. And this one I think is hard for both of us to do. But one thing about innovation is if it's in the virtual world, it's very easy to roll it out fast. When it gets inside the physical world, which again, GPUs are in the physical world, there's a reason why NVIDIA went up so much and the price went up so much because it's the physical world.

1:05:46There's a shortage of them. The virtual world can be abundant very quickly. The only thing about the copper situation is the amount of building that's going on for data centers, the amount of stuff going on for I just don't see governments as not making a lawn might have solved something the same way that deep mind will solve fusion and all this stuff will happen. I just think it's going to take three to five years. And what normally happens with physical commodities is the story is so rich on copper because of the shortage. and I agree with you 100 % that by the time we get to the 2050 that they're saying we won't, it doesn't matter.

1:06:23There's a short-term catalyst with China that coincides with the AI acceleration and the data center side. And I just think all of those combined for some kind of spike to take it higher because people start, investors focus on it, they jump into it. And that is the time that you kind of get this realization that it's never going to go up to those levels. That's all. Yeah, I think that's right. And unlike the Saudis who have the ability to turn on a few taps and then Trump, let's say, can turn on shale and whatever, right? You can actually manage the oil price pretty decently. Copper is already supply constrained and it takes too long to get a mine up and running.

1:07:00And there's no switchover. You can switch over in energy to other things. And we've gotten much better about natural gas or oil. You can't do it. But China can make switches. And so we've seen how they've moved away from coal. They went in all of these things, there are switches. For copper, it's just really hard. And right now, I'd be watching silver because I think silver is another place that with gold breaking out, with Bitcoin looking to get above the 200-day moving average for the first time in a while, I think silver is another one that should start to see a benefit from everything that we're talking about.

1:07:29So from a basic, simple portfolio view, you would say, what, silver and copper, Bitcoin, anything else, tech stocks? So right now - Does Bitcoin cover that bet anyway? Yeah, I think Bitcoin right now will outperform them in a way that makes more sense. I actually think the AI trade, meaning for the bigger companies, has reached a point where I think it's going to be the slowest force in an up tape. I just don't think they're the focal point for the next three to six months. I think it's a lot of dead stocks and it's a lot of China-related trades. And for tech, I'd rather have the China tech trades, just because if you go look at the short interest of Alibaba and where it was this month, I mean, it was at record highs.

1:08:22So I just think there's a big short position in China. And also, this is exactly the point in the business cycle. When the business cycle is starting to recover, the dollar starts to weaken. That is a classic market for small caps, commodities, and emerging markets. And they're all beaten up. And that's it. And I think people are still negative. And I think beta really hurts people at this point because quality has been a great trade and people have been hiding in it. And even though I think tech will eventually switch and come out of it again and the mega cap names will be fine. If you listen to Mark Benioff, and this is the rise of the agents, the profit margins that are going to happen in the S &P, which have really been isolated, mainly the tech companies, you should start seeing it in other industries.

1:09:05And if they're actually growing because of the benefits that are coming in the software rollouts, at the expense of the CapEx groups that are putting all this money in, but maybe not seeing the revenues at the same pace, I actually think the other areas that have the ability of benefiting from the reduction in call centers. I think healthcare is in a perma kind of underappreciated place of profit margin growth. Their revenues are growing. And I think they've got the most inefficient place, inefficient industry on the planet. So if you're going to basically make something fall to the bottom line, I'd be really combing through the healthcare side and just looking for places where AI is going to be rolled out over the course of the next couple of years.

1:09:46Jordy, as ever, fantastic conversation. We've got to have spoken for hours and hours and hours. uh there's a lot to catch up on because you have not you and i haven't caught up for a while um tell people about your youtube channel because you've just started one as well where you're just sort of laying out thoughts and doing that and your sub stack as well yep um so i start when when when weiss closed i started a like i said a consulting business so um you can reach me first via email because i've been getting a lot of people kind of rolling that's jordy at viscer dash labs.com. My sub stack is at Visser Labs.

1:10:23And like I said, I'm writing regularly. Let's see, my YouTube is at, I guess it's Geordie Visser Labs. And then my Twitter is at JVisser Labs. So it's all labs with the lab part being I'm doing a lot of software related stuff. One of the things I mentioned on my most recent video was that the arbitrage, I think for people that use risk models and use any kind of models of the past is best summarized with the leading economic indicator. The LEI has been negative and at recessionary levels year over year for the past, I think it's two years now. The only time in history, going back to when it was created in the 1950s, that you've been at negative levels like this and haven't had a recession.

1:11:06And the reason is because half of the components of the 10 are related to manufacturing. And so I'm trying to help people with recession models and stuff like that so they can find me at all those places i'm tweeting regularly and anyone who wants to reach out and talk please reach out fantastic geordie good to see you my friend and i'll see you soon thanks if crypto is digital gold then gold must be analog crypto as you build your digital portfolio don't leave your analog portfolio behind gold is a timeless asset that offers unique diversification but there's a better way to own gold than paying storage and management fees.

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