Macro, Crypto and RV Collective Season 2: Coffee with Captain from @dgenNetwork

27:20love to hear that yeah we um it's funny our our thing on this show we try to be more of a business focused show and say you know disagree without being disagreeable is always our mantra because there's always room to change your mind. And I love that you have that open sort of growth mindset in general. But you talked about a lot of sort of in that answer, you talked about a lot of things you've been through in the past. And I think for a lot of people here, we have a lot of listeners who maybe this is their first time in a crypto market cycle. Maybe this is their first time in any sort of bear market.

27:48You've seen a lot of market cycles. What's a piece of advice you would give to new investors as they're starting their career, whether it's in finance or crypto, or even if they're just casually dabbing as someone who has seen so many market cycles and worked on so many. Okay, there is a real superpower here and it's pretty easy and people get lost in this is once you've identified a secular trend, crypto is a secular trend, it works on a log chart over time, it's a perfect log chart. So that tells you, okay, this is an asset that's in a secular trend. Then your entire job is to wait for the business cycle to discount it and buy and then you just hold on and it's really about time horizon because when you ask most people well how long is this crypto thing going to take to play out they'll say 10 years then you ask them what they've done in their portfolio they're like well i flipped from this to this and i sold this and i bought that i think it's a bit overbought i'm like what the fuck are you doing this just buy it hold it and when you've got extra cash flow and you can afford to do it buy more particularly in the big weak points so i went back and looked at how i had traded crypto in the past and i thought i'd done a great job bought it at 200 it went up to 2000 back in 2013 12 13 um it then fell 85 i held on because i had a long-term time horizon i'm like fine this is this is how it's going to go we'll see where it goes then 2017 there was the forking wars i didn't really understand what was going on i was worried that i'd back the wrong chain i didn't have a deep enough knowledge so i'm like okay i'm out and i'd made 10 times my money so i walked away thought i was george soros some sort of super investing hero it then went up another 10x after i sold out i'm like bloody hell then it collapsed again and then i bought in into that massive sell-off that happened in March 2020.

29:48So I thought, yeah, great. You buy the dips. You're sold out into strength. You're great. I went back and I massively sized up in March 2020 versus my first investment. I went back and calculated how I just kept my initial investment and done nothing. I'd have made five times as much money. Then I calculated, well, what happens if I'd use the business cycle or you might call it the halving cycle because there happens to be highly correlated. If I'd used the halving cycle just to add the same amount again, every time it got there to my initial bet, which was not that big, I would have made 25 times as much money.

30:27And that made me realize really the power of how to trade a secular trend. So for most people, simplify everything. Everybody's stuck in the middle of the bell curve, where they're arguing, bickering, switching from one currency to another or one NFT project to another, when really that whole bell curve is either be the moron on the left or the Jedi on the right, which is it's going up, so own it. No, I love that. And Joey, I saw your hand fly up during that answer. I'll let you get in here with the question as we keep going. And Rao, I forget how long we have you, so let us know if you have a hard stop at any point.

31:03Obviously, we appreciate all the time you can give us. But Joey, go ahead and get in here. Yeah, it made me think back. So I owned a business in 2008, 2009 when everything crashed and went to shit. And my uncle is one of the smartest guys I know and been investing a really long time. And what you were talking about reminded me of what he said back then. It was like, you know, the money I have because I asked him, I said, you know, everything's crashing. You're going to pull everything out. And he was like, no. I said, well, why? It's all going to crash. He said, because all the money that I've invested is money that I don't need.

31:41And if I pull it out now, you know, why would I pull it out now when I know in 10 years, to your point, everything is cyclical and everything follows trends. And he was like, why would I pull it out if I know in 10 years we're going to be above where we were before the crash? And of course, you know, 10 years later, 2000, whatever it was, 18, you know, people that had left their money in when everything crashed in 2008 and 2009 were way ahead before that crash because everything came back and came back stronger than ever. and i think that's to your point people don't lack the patience or the the foresight to understand that they're everything is so cyclical and their trends and and like to your point the bell curve and i think you guys teaching and showing people that is incredible because so many people they just they get as soon as something drops they get scared they get out but the other issue is and this came up on a twitter space recently and it was a comment from somebody it was dead right is that's not an excuse to hold shitty assets, right?

32:48So everybody's got dust of some idea that they had, they kept, and it just never recovered. So a bunch of stuff like in 2001 never got back to where it did. So that's, again, why I try not to be too cute with this and keep it broad. So generally speaking, Ethereum is my biggest bet because I think that it's the broadest-based, blockchain network that has the most number of applications. I've got a few other bets, but I try not to say, well, it's definitely going to be the near protocol and I'm just going to have everything in that and suddenly I'm down 99 % and it never goes back to the high. So if you're doing long-term stuff, make sure it's in something that is an approvable adoption cycle with a long-term trend.

33:36That's the other key thing that people need to understand. And then it is actually as easy as that investing if you're investing because you need the money tomorrow you shouldn't be investing if you're investing because your future self wants wealth in the future which is what most of us invest for then you can have a long-term time horizon it's a superpower i feel like raul was talking to me directly about my cool man's universe that's still sitting in my wallet because i haven't sold it yet because i'm hoping one day it'll go up more than where it's at at 0.03 because I've lost so much and it hits right, hits home.

34:12And I know Cap feels the same way about that one. Yeah, I feel attacked, but you know what? There's always that tax loss harvesting. Raul, let me ask you a follow up on something you just said there, because you have been very vocal about, you know, Ethereum being a large part of the future, the financial ecosystem and ecosystem across the world as a whole. And I know it's your biggest bet. There's a joke, now that we've had you for a little bit, there's probably a joke to be had here about calls that I won't make, because I know that's been a big discussion of topic. But I was like, I can't come out the gate with that one.

34:42But why do you see that? Can you expand on that view of where you see Ethereum playing a role in the future? I'm not Ethereum maxi. I'm an observer of network adoption. That's really, that's it. So I'm agnostic to how the world plays out. I just want to make sure I've got the right bets. So there are more developers, more activity, more wallets on Ethereum than anything else. Now, go and have a conversation with a large brand or a large financial institution and tell them to use some random chain. They're worried, right? It's a difficult decision. What happens if these things are orphaned? What happens if this blockchain I built it on is the next EOS and it's dead, right?

35:21Nobody wants that. So network adoption, even if things are suboptimal, because there are better chains than Ethereum, it's very hard to make a decision not to which is why we're seeing so many of these uh layer ones become layer two um layer twos on ethereum i think that's a trend that's going to continue now it doesn't mean there won't be others but i think in the end we'll get down to kind of five key blockchains and other stuff will be layer ones layer twos or specific use cases um so just when i zoom out i just think okay ethereum seems to be the one that has the broadest provable Metcalfe's law.

36:01Bitcoin didn't because there was less application layers. Now we're seeing ordinals and other stuff. It's like, okay, maybe we can build different network effects on top of Bitcoin. And then you'd see projects earlier in their cycle, like Solana. Solana has a lot of the attributes that we see from early stage Ethereum. After the crash, which Ethereum had in 2018, it was down 97.5%, much like Solana was. but what we've actually got is a very vibrant ecosystem at a number of different levels and it's like you know is there a chance that this is one of the large ones could be i could be dead wrong too um and other people will have their other choices around that but ethereum just seems so obvious it's like buying the nasdaq you know call the call bitcoin the s &p and then and um ethereum the nasdaq the nasdaq outperforms the s &p over time because it's technology and technology has network adoption and it's moving faster so those are the two bets they'll both go up simple as that makes a lot of sense um i have to ask a very important follow-up question sounds like a big dog you got there what type of doggo do you have i did have two doggos sadly i lost one last week um they are both cayman islands mutts but they're basically a mix between ridgebacks and labradors so she is a yeah she's quite big uh old old and a bit fat and a little bit grumpy when the gardeners come so the pool guy's here so she's shouting at him yeah even though she sees him every week and knows exactly who he is but she must protect us from this threat oh yeah no my my my i have a i have a like a labrador who's uh probably in the 90 to 100 pound range who must protect me from every leaf that blows across my lawn so i totally feel that.

37:49Going back to just the overall macro picture, I want to ask you a few macro questions. Again, I think you have this long-term vision, you have this history, and you have a unique set of skills and talk to a lot of people. Where do you see central bank digital currency, CBDCs, playing into this sort of global monetary system as we move forward? So everything is being digitized. Once you realize that, you realize where the trend lies. So anything that can be digitized will be because it's more efficient. And because of things like smart contracts, there's stuff you can do that you couldn't do before.

38:23So it's been absolutely clear, Singapore, India, China, the ECB, the Bank of England, they're all going to central bank digital currencies. Why? It's a number of levels. One, it's just a more efficient way of doing things. B is they want to blend monetary policy and fiscal policy together. We saw that in the pandemic. that would be more likely used. So they can give direct stimulus to direct individuals via this. But there's also nefarious sides as well, right? Because they could charge savers a lower interest rate and people who are, you know, they can give different interest rates to different people.

39:02They can do all sorts of different things. Now, that's going to change how economics works in an economy. Is that good or bad? I think it's both. People worry about the privacy and everything else. I keep asking people, so how much do you use cash? And the answer is to get my hair cut and to pay the valet guy. That's it. It's not even to buy weed anymore because it's legal. You just go into a store. So it's like nobody uses cash. But we're all on Twitter all day. We verified ourselves. We're on Google. We have our identity. We're on Facebook. We're on Instagram. We're on TikTok. We lost our privacy years ago.

39:41So I just don't think that that's the fight. Now, the government having control over your finances, they do anyway. You've got a bank account, you've got credit cards, they can shut you out immediately. And we see that repeatedly. The Russians love that en masse. So in the end, I just think of central bank digital currencies as non-globalized stablecoins. So let's say the digital euro, it's not going to be used for cross-border payments easily. It doesn't as connect. Now, do they make those interoperable? They're all talking about doing that. How can they do it? But really, you know, stable coins have actually solved that.

40:18They're all in dollars generally. But intrapayments within countries will just go into blockchain rails. And it kind of makes sense. It's just a more efficient way of doing it. So I know everybody fears everything. I just think, well, it's the adoption of the technology. If they do that, I mean, I've seen it in India where they went to an amazing payment system. called UPI, Universal Payments Interface, that allows instant peer-to-peer payments. And what they found is a massive fintech layer got built on top. So think of what the CBDC built on whatever chain, however it works, what can be built on that to bridge the TradFi world with the new world?

41:04That's what I'm really interested in because you're going to blow apart all of those bridges and make it easier to just interoperably operate across different blockchains in different ways in a way that abstracts it all the way, much like I don't even know what phone you're talking on or what network you're on or what software you're running or what headphones you're doing. It doesn't matter. It's like we're just doing this. Yeah, it always cracks. One of the things you mentioned and that always cracks me up on people, like I've literally seen people posting on Facebook from their iPhone about privacy concerns.

41:35And it's like, I think they might've missed the plot on that one. When you see like where we're at as far as, you know, there is that sort of trade off that you have. Yeah, I mean, I get it. There's more governments are cranking down on control over people over time. I don't dispute that. It's not a good thing. It's one of the reasons I moved to the Cayman Islands a long time ago was I just wanted to be kind of out of the stresses of a system with an aging population that doesn't have enough tax take to pay its bills. they will only crack down more and more on people over time to control the money because there's not enough money for the interest payments that go on in the economy.

42:11with that said actually that that brings up an interesting question where we talk all the time about countries in general that are like i i've contended i've been very frustrated with the united states like almost uh going from a cradle of innovation of historical value you know in years years past to uh being very uh stingy with how they've handled things like the crypto and blockchain industries on the whole are there countries that stick out to you on the world as a whole that you're like, you know what, that is a country that is a country or countries that are moving things in the correct direction.

42:44Yeah. Sopnendu Mohanty from Singapore, who's the chief fintech officer for the monetary authority of Singapore, he's been on real vision a few times, good friend of mine. Singapore's doing the right thing. So Singapore is being thoughtful in how it regulates. The Middle East is becoming very good at this as well. Switzerland did a great job. The EU has done a decent job. Who'd have thought it? Even within places like Germany, things are moving fast. The UK, I think, is about to really enter the world stage. I think they've seen the US umming and ahhing, like, do we want to do this? We're scared of losing our reserve currency control.

43:23The UK is fabulous at regulatory arbitrage. When the US falters, they take it. So that's why the global FX market was the UK. The global euro dollar market was the UK. The global derivatives market was the UK. And I think the UK has seen the opportunity here. As long as it can hold its shit together without losing another government, it stands a chance. So, yeah, I see a lot of optimistic stuff going on all around. And I think the US will get there in the end. It's just it's got the most to lose. So it's the most scared. People fear change generally. And if you look at the U.S. politicians, they're the oldest politicians outside of Japan.

43:59And so they fear change. I get it. People don't know what it means and they're scared of it. So it takes time. yeah no doubt about it it's um when you have the biggest it's you know any anybody who's a um you know a poker player knows when you have a bigger stack of chips to protect there are a couple ways to handle it and sometimes it's a little bit more conservative depending on the situation and and it totally totally follows that way and you know i've mentioned before like there's big brands i've worked at like nestle which are more conservative and ones that are more forward thinking like progressive who want to think about what's coming next and um you know both can potentially be successful depending on how you approach.

44:37I guess like thinking about, you know, the future in general. So if somebody is looking in general at their, you know, financial portfolio, so it could be across the board, what are the biggest risks you see in how people approach that over the next, let's say like, you know, three to five years, if somebody is in, you know, this crypto space kicking around, and they're trying to figure out how they're balancing things, what do you see as risk factors and headwinds for the financial markets as a whole? So the risks were all last year, the big risk, which was the business cycle risk. We had that, right?

45:14Everything sold off. I mean, it was the worst time for most assets because bonds sold off as well as equities, as well as crypto, as well as commodities. There was literally nowhere to hide. So we had a massive contraction in global wealth that happened last year. So we're more in the macro spring stage right now where the green shoots are there we might have a falter at some point a larger correction but i think it's from higher levels and people will worry again oh my god are we going back down the toilet and then crypto macro summer kicks in and everything starts moving forwards as recovery starts showing its face so there are always esoteric risks you There's obviously the geopolitical risks that are there.

46:03But you have to ask yourself, what is the response to something happening? It's usually more printing of money, which drives assets up. I think one of the risks people face is if I'm right in my thesis around the everything code, then the use of central bank balance sheets and the debasement of currency continues at least till the end of this decade. And what people don't realize is they need to measure their portfolios against that. Because if, so an asset is just future deferred consumption. So it's your reward to yourself later when maybe you don't have an income or whatever, or you want to buy a larger thing.

46:45Now, the problem is, is those larger things you might buy, like houses, are going up because of the debasement of the balance sheet. Incomes aren't going up at the same time. And when you break down assets and divide them by just the Fed balance sheet is a simple way of doing it, you find the S &P 500 has gone nowhere. Gold has gone negative. Real estate has been negative. So these have been investments that have actually made your future self poorer, even though optically they've gone up in price. And I only found two major assets that did outperform the balance sheet, and that was the Nasdaq and crypto.

47:19So I think it does matter what assets you have. And again, to simplify it down is make sure you own secular trends. You will have ups and downs, unforeseen things. You know, who knows what's about to happen to the bond market right now? You know, as the Chinese currency is weakening and the Japanese currency is weakening, they're buying less bonds while the Treasury is issuing it. Could the bond market blow up? Could that cause another sell-off? Of course, you should expect all of those things. Volatility is an expected course of events, and you should factor it in and ask yourself, am I comfortable with the risk I'm taking to allow a 15 % pullback?

47:57Could I have another bear market pullback of 20 %? Does that phase me? Yeah, that's the equity pullback. In crypto, would it destroy my future self if we had a 50 % sharp decline? Because it can happen in crypto. We've all seen it before. so it's it's it's the balance of risk having the right time horizon and realizing at the moment you really want to panic because something's going on in the straits of taiwan and you think oh my god we're going to world war you've got to realize that the most likely outcome in that situation is more cowbell which is more stimulus because nobody no government wants this to fall apart But the reason being is because there's this massive cohort of pensioners and they will destroy all of their retirement savings.

48:44And the system's over-levered, so you can't allow the value of collateral to go down. So there is always risks in everything. Just make sure how you invest allows you to stomach those risks. And even better, buy when those things happen, if you believe in the secular trend. If you're in a non-secular trend, if you're trading oil, which has basically been an up-down market like most commodities, then you have to think things very differently. So actually, I'm curious what your thoughts are. You mentioned more cowbell, right? What are your thoughts on that more cowbell, right? In 2008, there was a lot of sort of quantitative easing that went down.

49:25And some people feel like that's putting us on a crash course for the future. We're buying from Peter to pay Paul. Are you in favor of that sort of action in the time like 2008, which again, like I have my own thoughts, which I'll obviously withhold. I generally was, I guess. But what is your thoughts on sort of when we do get those sort of bailout scenarios and they protect the entire economic system from failing? But a lot of people say that protects bad system and bad actors. okay firstly should they do it the moral or economic argument is if you don't the system fails which destroys wealth at scale for everyone so you can either have your wealth destroyed quickly through total collapse or you can have it destroyed slowly by the mutualization of all of this which is what debasement does it mutualizes the losses of the system amongst the many the issue is is the people who get penalized are the wage earners because their wages don't go up in real terms while asset owners do fine because assets offset the uh the rise in the balance sheet so there's that navigation which is why the rich get richer the poor get poorer it's driven by this this factor is one of the key factors but the other issue is and we're seeing it right now and i wrote i've got a whole thesis on this called the everything code which covers many many angles but essentially i managed to prove that all quantitative easing all government death issuance basically has been to all government debt issuance ahead um over trend rate of GDP growth has been just to service the existing debts.

51:19Those interest payments. And what happens is after three and a half to four years, as the debts come up to mature, what they do is they shove them onto the central bank balance sheet in economic weakness. And we've seen that cycle repeat and repeats exactly the same as the Bitcoin halving cycle. Everybody in the world had a debt jubilee in 2008. Debt jubilees normally were thought of as cancelling of all the debt so nobody has to pay the debt. This jubilee was a unique one because they said nobody has to pay the interest. We'll just reset all interest rates to zero. And that gave the system a chance to try and heal itself.

51:55Now, it never did. We never got rid of the debt. So every time the business cycle comes, interest rates rise because inflation rises a bit, interest rates rise, the central bank has to stop it. And before you know it, the central banks have to pay a higher interest rate on their debt. But rates have been rising, the economy slows down more QE. And it happens every single time. We're now heading into that point, which is like fourth quarter of this year into, let's say, June of next year, where we start to see the economic impacts of the interest rate rises. We're starting to see in the bond market the issue of the Treasury having to issue more bonds to pay the higher interest rate on the bonds that they've got in existence.

52:41We've got something like 13 trillion of bonds to roll, to refinance over the next nine months. That can't be done at higher rates without more issuing of bonds and rates going up higher, et cetera, et cetera, and it gets out of control. The only way of doing it is by cutting rates. So I think the Fed are waiting as long as possible to see inflation undershoot their target so they can bring rates back down to trend rate of GDP growth. It's about 1.75%. And they have to do QE because there's no other way of doing it without the thing getting out of control. And I've also proven that every single major central bank in the world is doing exactly the same thing.

53:22The Japanese, the Europeans, the Brits, et cetera, all doing the same thing. So it's like a global accord on how to manage a debt when all of the governments hit over 100 % of GDP and debt. So I just think it's an ongoing process. Nobody likes it. But the issue is, is GDP is not growing fast enough to service the debt. And that's driven by GDP is a magic formula, which is population growth, productivity, and debt growth. Those three things drive GDP growth. Problem is, is all the populations are shrinking or flattened out. Productivity has been going negative for a long period of time because of an aging population and um and debt growth kind of reached its nadir in 2008 so the only way is hoping for a productivity miracle uh and that is what's underway with this exponential age but it's going to take till the end of the decade before it really shows so sorry lots in that no no it's i mean it's a great answer because i think it's like like i think sometimes we have these large conversations and people particularly in this space and i love our friends in in the crypto space because i'm i'm living around in here right I live in the crypto and Web3 world.

54:32But I think a lot of people oversimplify versus a nuanced answer like that, which is a little more thoughtful. So I appreciate you going that deep because a lot of people say, like, what more debt issued? Bitcoin solves this versus actually kind of looking at sort of the historical trends and where it's going. So I love that perspective. Beyond cryptocurrencies, I guess, like, because you're obviously someone who's very forward thinking, right? Like you were early on Bitcoin. You saw the financial crisis come. All these different things, right? What other technologies, emerging technology and technological innovations, do you have your eye on and why?

55:08So I've got my eye on a huge amount of this stuff. I wrote an enormous piece on this called The Exponential Age. And I've put some videos on Real Vision and some videos on YouTube. But for me, it's like at the base layer of The Exponential Age is the energy revolution and how the cost of energy from renewables is collapsing over time. And that will only accelerate because of the amount of investment that's going into the space. Now it's not enough currently to cover all the needs and there's not enough storage and there's tons of problems. But once you throw enough money at problems, they get solved.

55:43So the cost of energy comes down. That is a massive multiplier on productivity. It's probably the biggest change humanity could go through. Then there is the compute layer. is like the speed of compute and the amount of data you can compute. Now, that's already been on Moore's law. But, you know, if we get to quantum or this superconductor breakthrough that may or may not be occurring, then that changes that entire equation. So we have almost infinite compute power. Then you've got AI, which is the knowledge part of that equation, where you have now knowledge was a scarce asset. It's now become an abundant asset.

56:17And people haven't figured, got their heads around this. So I'm looking at those technologies. I'm looking at robotics, the Internet of Things, which is basically robotics as well, plus AI. If you think of what a Tesla is, it's basically AI plus robotics plus EV, all of these trends together, plus big data, plus all sorts of stuff. So I'm looking at these things. I'm looking at the application of AI and biotech and how that's going to create a biotech revolution, particularly at the genomics level. I'm interested in that. I'm interested in space. I think space is an exponential industry. And it's incredible that a single company has now got more satellites in space than everybody else added together.

57:00And that's only going to go further. And what that means for space alone, just from network communications, is enormous. For medical sciences, it's enormous. and then what it does for what we can do on the moon, what we can do from asteroid mining and all of this other stuff that comes into play from that. I've covered that on Real Vision as well with an amazing interview with a guy from NASA. And there's a whole bunch more on top of all of this. So there is so much distributed computing power. There's so many things that all come together and they're all hitting adoption phase. And I've been talking about this and everyone was laughing at me last year.

57:37They're like, you know, you're a moron, you're an idiot. and then AI hit and everyone's like, holy shit. And, you know, whether that superconductor breakthrough happens or not, that would be an incredible moment. We've also seen a shunt forward in quantum. And quantum is like AI five years ago, six years ago. And before you know it, we'll have quantum compute. These things are all happening. We've got AR, VR. I mean, Apple, Facebook, they're all putting forward the first steps into how these worlds emerge, which is the metaverse, which is another large part of that where we live our digital lives.

58:12So, yeah, I'm all over this. And blockchain is obviously part of all of this whole trend. Yeah, 100%. Let's let Mutasco, we'll let you get in here with one question, then I'll let you get out of here with one final one. Raoul, I've been really appreciative of the time, but Mutasco, go ahead and get in here. Hopefully I pronounced that right, Cryptic Chelsea.

58:34Go ahead. Here you go. Yeah, thank you. Hey, Raul, I've been absorbing your content for a while. I remember one of them where you had talked about real visions. There was a concept that you talked about regarding bringing trading, kind of the trading skills in a metaverse style and like kind of a streaming model. Where is that at? And do you see the interaction between, because people are talking about streaming payments and how crypto and tokenization is making that possible. Where do you see that concept that you talked about in Real Vision and the significance of that product within the Real Vision's ecosystem?

59:27Look, there's a lot of possible futures of where we go. I do think the metaverse it's become the most unfashionable thing in the world and cut to three, four, five years time it'll be the most fashionable thing in the world and everybody will suddenly get it so how that offers opportunities is vast and it's something that's on our radar screen as we develop our platform for the future how do we think about this kind of stuff we are currently building out the Web3 capabilities I mean we'll talk a little bit about the real vision collective and other stuff but we have these NFT communities we're just um working on our wallet integrations we've got an on-chain trading league um so that we've been testing and we'll roll that out we're looking at hive mind portfolios where everybody votes on a portfolio um and maybe could that be tokenized could we disrupt asset management by doing these kind of things those are on our radar screens how do we use a real vision token in the effective way that let's say reddit have used a token um you know what can we do with that uh how could we think about supercharging that space how do these then integrate as we move towards metaverse experiences people aren't yet ready to live entirely in a metaverse style experience but we can move towards it so it's all the same chain of progress but there's a lot that needs to get done before we get there great answer i i'll let you get out first of all, once again, thank you for so much time.

1:00:58This has been awesome. I can talk all day or ask questions all day. You know, have been a consumer of your content for quite some time. Actually was a late adopter of your content. When I worked with MetaGood, Bill Tai actually introduced me to some of your work. And I was like, wow, this is really fascinating. And the interviews are thoughtful, insightful, getting into the meat of what the future is. So having you on our show is an honor. It is a privilege. Appreciate that very, very much. I'll get you out of here with this question because this is a question I love to ask people like yourself who are very successful, very thoughtful, and that is I've always thought about the idea that we need to rebrand failure.

1:01:36Oftentimes, people look at failure as this terrible loss that they're taking instead of this learning they're taking. And you've talked about some opportunities you've seen throughout the years. But when I say the word failure, I'd love to know about a time in your career, in your life, when you've seen, whether it's your biggest failure or when you've learned a tremendous amount from, what was it? What did you learn? And how did you change going forward?

1:02:04I don't know if we lost Raul or we lost me. Can you? Oh, there you go. Go ahead. Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. And there's lots of the, oh, I screwed this up in the past and here's why. But let me see if I can leave you with something different here. is you should fear failure at all points because it is a great motivator. But you have to realize that 95 % of all of those fears you live in your head never materialize. You don't want to say something to so-and-so because you're worried they're going to react. Generally never happens. Most of your fears never manifest themselves. It's this human trait of self-preservation.

1:02:46and it can really get in your way if you are a person who via past experiences fears more than they are optimistic it's the balance between optimism and fear and you can't teach it to people it's a very hard thing to be able to do but if you do have fear if fear is something you live with and we all live with fears the best thing to do with a fear is use it to motivate you? How do I not make that happen? If you worry about something, you manifest it. If you think about how I'm going to solve that problem and how I will definitely not allow that to happen, you will manifest that too. I'm a strong believer that most of the time we can manifest our own destiny by mindset because it opens our minds to how we can do things.

1:03:36So if you definitely think something's going to happen, it will happen. If your biggest fear is X, generally X happens. But if you think the other way around, you can make magic happen. This is remarkably timely based on something I have going on in my head at the moment. So I very much appreciate that actual reframing of it and how you approached it. Raoul, thanks for your time this morning. thanks for joining us we appreciate this very very much and obviously welcome back anytime i'm sure we will reach out again when we need a big macroeconomic perspectives as things go on and if you have everything you want to talk about with our audience always welcome open stage i just want to leave with one thing is listen if you are interested in joining the real vision community and it is a fucking amazing community we have an nft mint going on now called the real vision collective it's a mashup of nine different projects from from this one i think has got you know crypto dick butts to sailor boat to all sorts of cool stuff it's a lot of fun nakamigos the idea is you collect the art you join the rules and community you get enough discords you get token gated content you get a whole bunch of stuff and you start networking amongst this amazing group also for the fun of it and you alluded to earlier i'm famous for buying a bunch of ETH call options at the peak of the market in 2021.

1:04:58And I've always said that NFTs are a call option on ETH. So actually as part of this, as a bit of gamification, there's actually 5 % of the proceeds of the NFT buys ETH call options and it ends up being a grand special prize that gets allocated with a few people. So it could be like half a million bucks in that if ETH is at$4 ,000 by year end. If it doesn't go above$3 ,000 by year end, it's going to be worth nothing. you'll still have the art the community and all the fun that goes with it so if people are interested in being part of the real vision community it's a great step it's great art it's a lot of fun it's very web free it's slightly crazy as well so just go to realvision.com forward slash the collective i think the mint closes it's it's like 0.069 it's like 100 120 bucks or something so it's not expensive you get a lot for it you know it's all about the community and the benefits of that community realvision.com forward slash the collective check it out and if If you're not following Raoul, I don't know what you're doing at this point in your life in the crypto and NFT journey.

1:05:59So give him a follow. Excellent conversation this morning. And again, check that out. Definitely something that I think if you are, I mean, if you're at all interested in this world, you talk about the network period alone, you're going to get your network value back with that. We've talked about it a lot on this show, the importance of community and network and people who are here for, you know, I hate to use the term the right reasons, but here to grow and learn. That's what you're going to get out of that group. And so I think it's a great opportunity with that mint coming up. And check it out for more information.

1:06:30Follow Raoul. And yeah, I will be interested myself as well. What's up, revolutionaries? Thanks for tuning in. For more content like this, head over to realvision.com and get unfiltered access to the very best, brightest, and biggest names in finance.