🔴 Markets Bloodbath: Drinks With Raoul Pal (Round 20) - URGENT Update

28:05So anyway, so some guy, Tom Capital, bro, your timeline's a crime scene of bag holders and broken dreams. Stop preaching, start praying. And thank you, but I'm not a religious man. But there we go. But Aaron, if you go through his feed, he just trolls me all the time. I have no idea who he is or why he cares so much. But I get so many people engagement funding. Shane S. Okay, Bitcoin, you can tell by the lightning. Oh, man, a bit pissed off he said this because this snake oil salesman is usually wrong and off with his sales pitches. Hopefully this one time he is right. I mean, what people forget is I do have a written track record fully recorded over 20 years in Global Macro Investor.

28:51And with many mistakes en route, it has been the best performing research service on earth. um provably so but hey i don't know anything well that doesn't mean i think i'm going to be right fuck no i'm gonna be wrong we all know that so a quick break in your regular programming if you're serious about your future grab my free report called prepare for 2030 i think you've got five years to make as much money as possible and this guide will help you navigate what's coming The link is in the description. Download it now.

29:27Lee, not sure I can take Ralph seriously anymore after you promoted dick butt NFT so hard. Well, I'm sorry. Unless you know the fundamental maths of the universe that one dick equals one butt, you're not really a serious person. I did actually explain to Lee. I went back, spanned him with dick butts and explained the maths of the universe. And he actually backed off and said, okay, I'll leave you to it. crypto dude 101, Michael Lillian, Michael Lillian for F4, banana clown. Thank you. So how I deal with this is my favorite quote of any author, which is Huntress Thompson. And Huntress Thompson said, you buy the ticket, you take the ride.

30:09And that's the way you got to go through life. Life comes at you. Markets come at you. Things happen. They're not in your control. And what you do is how you deal with it, that your mental aptitude, your mental flexibility, and your ability to adapt and thrive. Oh, wow. Look at this. I haven't got through one. And my lovely blonde assistant has now, or accomplice in fact, has now brought me another one so I can drink faster. So buy the ticket, take the ride. It is a great way to think about life in itself is you've bought the ticket, you take the ride. And in crypto terms, that's about volatility is the price you pay for returns.

30:48And time horizon is how you get them. It's really that simple. And people don't really get it. Okay, so now I've chastised you for being utter morons, impatience, and philistines, which I don't know how you let me get away with it. But again, it's because I love you and I give you drink tips and stuff like that.

31:11and i occasionally call markets right as well right that's rude of me crunching the ice cube um i'm looking down my list of things one thing i do know is whoever mean people are online they're very different in person because everybody thinks they can hide behind a keyboard and their frustrations come out and it's an easy way to vent yourself The opposite happens when you meet people in real life. Generally, it's a hug and a good conversation, and you share your frustrations or your hopes and dreams together. And at Real Vision, we passionately believe in the power of community, and that means online communities, but also in person.

31:54So we have a few things coming up. One is the Crypto Gathering. That is our event in Miami in January when the weather's miserable. I know you're probably thinking, Christ, how am I supposed to pay for this if the markets are down? But you know what? The best thing in the world to do is hang around with other people, get a bit of sunshine when you're feeling shitty. And that's in January 22nd to 24th. The last one we did was amazing success. It's basically all over Miami, different venues we've got. It's not like at an auditorium with speakers on stage. There's like these intimate talks where you get to meet the kind of rock stars of real vision, people building real businesses in crypto, macro people.

32:35There's parties, there's dinners, there's VIP tracks. There's even, I think last time, I think it was Sergio had a running club. We've got all sorts going on. And so it's a real community vibe. It's not like a crypto event where there's 10 ,000 people, you know, all sort of pitching something and booed. You don't know any of that stuff. It's really unique. It's a lot of fun. So come and join us in Miami. The details are, I think the link will be below, but come and join us. It's great before ticket prices go up as well. Other things, we've got a couple of other events going on. In Sydney on the 23rd of November, we've got, I think our second largest community in the world is Australia.

33:18The Aussies are a fantastic community. I've got to get it back out to see you guys soon. You always get the shitty end of the stick, because you live in Australia and you're surrounded by Australians, but also because of the time zones. So, A, I keep mentioning it to Nico. We've got to make sure we do stuff early enough in the morning, late enough in the afternoon for you guys, because I really appreciate how loyal and enthusiastic and brilliant you guys are. The event, unfortunately, sold out, which is with the BTC Markets and Real Vision, putting a great event on together. That's on the 20th of November.

33:52For those of you going, have a great time. I know you will, because the Aussie crowd is amazing. We've also got Zurich on the November 28th. So there's a few slots left for that. We've got a vibrant community, both in Switzerland and also in southern Germany, around where a lot of people come and travel to those events. So if you can, do so, because they're really good fun. I mean, I did one in, I think it was Zurich as well, recently. It was great. So you can get the details of those on the Discord channel and the Telegram chat. If you can't find it, hunt Penny down on X or hunt Penny down on the platform.

34:33And Penny, who is the queen of our community, she will help get you there. Okay, I think it's time. I think you want some time. I'm too slow with my drinking. Hold on, let me catch up. I'll let you catch up. Remember, the Q &A after all of this will be on platform. Also, importantly, for all paid members of any tier, Julian and I are doing a full AMA tomorrow. But more than that, because we know everyone's stressed, the markets are hard, and everyone wants to know what's going on. We've got AMAs from everybody in the pro tier. So that's myself and Julian, followed by Andreas and Mikkel, followed by Jamie Cootes, our chief crypto analyst, are all going to do AMAs for all of you.

35:20so everybody whatever tier you're paid tier you're a member of you get to ask us all the questions you want um and because we thought it was important normally that happens in the pro tier um where people get access to us but we want to offer it to everybody because we want to help people and that's the job we're in is yeah sure we got tiers but sometimes you need to get around it so i know there's a lot of questions and i'm sure i'll get them later about you know what do you think about sui what's going on we'll answer all of those questions for you it's going to be of a shit show because there's going to be a lot of you asking questions.

35:50I'll get through as many as I can. So that's tomorrow for Julian and I, followed by Andreas, I think is Friday or Monday, and then Jamie as well. So I'll see you there for that. Okay, let's do the macro stuff because it's what you care about. Actually, I'm going to have a hit on my vape as well. We're kind of get into that stage and i know i know i know that you think i'm a complete moron because i'm berating you over the quality of your awful foodstuffs and there you are looking at me thinking what are you doing are you a teenager your favorite neighborhood spot grows with square indeed my favorite neighborhood spot has quickly become todd snyder in williamsburg todd snyder is one of my favorite menswear shops and has supplied me with all the clothes I have needed this quite hot summer.

36:49Every business has different goals, but Square is the business platform that supports them all, from opening a new location, selling something new, or just expanding their reach. Indeed, I've seen it with Todd Snyder. In Square also, you can get real-time insights, so don't wait for end-of-day reports. Go to square.com forward slash go forward slash real vision to learn more about how your business can grow with Square. That's S-Q-U-A-R-E dot com slash G-O slash R-E-A-L-B-I-S-I-O-N.

37:28But, you know, I was smoking cigarettes at 14 years old at school. managed to get off those eventually and I tried several times but I'm just addicted to nicotine and it's not a good look but it is what it is and my mother is and she's 82 so I got her off cigarettes at like 78 years old and onto vapes and she seems to be incredibly strong let's hope that continues Brian Johnson wouldn't be proud of me even though I kind of do all the fountain life and the sort of longevity stuff there I'm vaping away drinking a gin and tonic talking to you lot or actually talking to myself on screen because I can't see any of you lot.

38:04Okay. Shut up talking, Raoul. Let's get to the chase because it's all I actually care about. The rest is just all noise. I get it every time on YouTube. It's like, well, cut to minute 32 because that's when he actually starts talking important stuff. The rest is bullshit. I'm like, really? And then the rest of you are like, we don't care about the macro. Just tell us about the wine. I'm like, I love you more. Okay. Sorry, I'm just chattering away now. Okay. This is from Global Macro Investor. This is Julian and myself. Our research, not Real Vision, so all of you people go, well, Real Vision, their view is.

38:41Real Vision doesn't have a view. It's never had a view. Real Vision is a platform for research, understanding, whether it's driven by the community or driven by supposed experts like us. You may not think I'm an expert. In fact, you tell me all day I'm not an expert. I'm, in fact, a moron on X all day, so I appreciate that. But there we go. So here we go. My lovely blonde accomplice made that for me earlier. The really big picture. So I like to structure these things. By the way, we're going to run wildly over time again. So just so prepare yourselves. So if you're in Europe, you better go and tell your husband or wife that you're not going to be in bed for a while.

39:22And you might be drunk when you get to bed because we've got a lot to get through. And if you're in Australia, you can apologize to your other half that you're drunk at seven o 'clock in the morning, but you're used to it, you live like that. Okay, let's start with a big picture. What are we doing here? Why does Raoul have this everything code thesis? What has he built? I try and explain to people, and I've done videos on this, this is how the world works. It's simply the structure of which the entire system functions and why it functions that way. And what I try and do with the research is zoom down to shorter term time horizons.

40:02But over the shorter term, the noise increases. So we'll talk about that in a sec. So it's all about demographics. After World War II, I'm going to talk for hours about this stuff. The Treaty of Versailles after World War I basically forced the Germans to pay reparations to the French. that caused the Germans to essentially go bankrupt and have to hyperinflate. That broke German society and caused the rising of the Nazis. That led to World War II. World War II, the end of it led to a baby boom from world peace. Baby boom was the largest demographic boom of all time. That baby boom has basically driven the global economy ever since.

40:50The inflation of the 70s was not a monetary phenomena. It was actually driven by demographics. It was driven by the baby boom cohort coming into the workforce all at the same time demanding goods. And there wasn't enough supply for those goods. So the world had to adapt. Then we had obviously the Suez crisis and a bunch of other things that came onto it and a bunch of money printing and other stuff that happened, but bait and then leaving of the gold standard, all of this stuff. But really, it's a demographics issue. As they've aged out, they've also driven everything from investment markets, index funds, pension market, everything has been driven by this cohort.

41:28So this cohort is now retiring. It's leaving the labor force. As it leaves the labor force, we can project out into the future because of the births deaths, what happens to the labor force participation rate? This is happening everywhere. It's falling over time. So as it falls over time, and forecastably so, we increase the debt to goose growth, because growth is driven by population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth. That growth is this part that I'm showing you is to offset the slowing of the population growth and that decrease in the labor force participation rate. Less people being productive in the labor force.

42:12Old people are less productive. And that leads to slower growth. So the government increases debt to offset it. That debt is financed by liquidity. This measure here is the Fed net liquidity. but actually in recent years, it's moved to US total liquidity and global liquidity for the global debt cycle. What's the difference between Fed net liquidity, global liquidity? Fed net liquidity is the Federal Reserve balance sheet plus the Treasury General account and the reverse repo that's now been drained and probably will never get rebuilt. But they've moved the liquidity onto the banks now, which is what our total liquidity measure takes into account, that plus M2 growth as well.

42:56Anyway, it doesn't really matter. Liquidity is the basin of money to pay the debt driven by the demographics. Okay, that's the game. That's the whole game. Understand that, and you understand everything that comes after it. Then we've created this cyclicality. We had a perfect four-year ISM cycle that changed, and it's driven, the cyclicality of the economy is driven by the debt maturity distribution. So the debts have to be rolled, and we need to, because going back to this chart, if you remember, we pay it by debasing currency. And so when the debts get rolled, currency debasement increases.

43:40And that is the process by which markets and economies have operated since. It's all the same cycle, and it happens globally. So up until 2024, we had this perfect four-year cycle. I mean, perfect. And that was because the debt maturity of the debts after 2008 was four years. And then something changed. And we're like, what the fuck is going on here? We didn't really understand it. Until we went back to this and read the maths and realised in 2022 and 21, when rates went back to zero, they extended the maturity of the debt from four years to five years or five and a bit years. And so what that did was break this.

44:25We had this extra year in the middle that we never had before. The extra year in the middle didn't need peak refinancing. The refinancing is for this coming 12 months. So we haven't had peak refinancing. So you didn't get peak economic growth. Economic growth was held because we didn't get that stimulus. Rates remained higher because of it. And the cycle extended to this. And this is the 5.4-year sine wave. Now, we don't know what the next cycle is going to be, depending where all the debt maturity ends up. They're all sticking in the short end right now. It might shorten it back down to four years.

45:04Don't know. We'll have to see. But this is what we're dealing with. And where we should end up is peak cycle is somewhere towards the end of 2026. This is the reason we don't believe in the four-year Bitcoin cycle that suddenly independent of the NASDAQ, they're all the same cycle, or the ISM, it's all the same cycle. But suddenly, some people online say, well, it's all over now. We didn't get our rally in November and October. It's finished all over. Let's come back again in 18 months' time.

45:35probabilistically speaking that's a load of fucking wank that probably gets me banned from youtube but wanks a great expression in england um okay so the game is paying the interest payments of the debt that is where the debt growth is coming from is the interest payments don't forget the interest payments are now larger part of the u.s budget deficit than the military is and we do that by printing money. I mean, Christ, I've told you this a million times. So we print money and look, we've got lots of debt to brawl and we need to print money to do it, okay?

46:13And hey, presto, gold has been following this like it knows. Yeah, because gold follows, is real-time financial conditions right now. Financial conditions, the dollar, interest rates, and commodity prices. And gold is reflecting financial conditions, which is the forward look on liquidity. I'll come on to that in a second. A bit confusing for you all, but gold is kind of explicable right now. Here's GMI global total liquidity versus gold. Gold says it should accelerate. Global total liquidity has been sort of, it got to new highs. It's flatlined a little bit because of what the US is doing. Meanwhile, China's increasing the use of its balance sheet, and the dollar's gone up a little bit.

46:58I think it probably rolls over at some point soon. We'll come on to that in a sec. And that then may lead to the final leg higher in gold and the final leg higher in markets. But you can see gold is basically pricing global liquidity impulse all the way to the end of 2026, which would be kind of what we're expecting for the cycle. Again, don't expect perfection. Raoul said, everything moves, deviates. You need to assess the probability, see the data as it comes in and understand. But when I put gold versus the, I mean, I don't know why Julian's put everything in pink. I don't know. He's feeling flamboyant.

47:39But what we've got is that's interest payments. Gold is forward pricing it. And following up is liquidity, which lags gold by 12 months. So we've actually got the phasing of all of this, these dominoes. We talk about these dominoes all the time. And why it matters to us is because it explains 90 % of crypto's moves over time. Now, again, this is the issue with the impatience and the people who don't understand this stuff. It's like, well, liquidity's moved. Why hasn't Bitcoin moved? It's all broken. and everything's shit. It's like, no, it doesn't work like that. There was a variability around this stuff.

48:19This is a weekly plot chart going back 11 years. Not 11 years. It actually goes back 12 years now. And you get variability around the mean. That's how markets work. That's the 10 % difference in correlation. So you expect differences, and the differences give you informational value. But what you get is this stunningly high correlation over time. And again, people don't really understand this. Are your charts, they're just correlation versus causation. They're bullshit. You're just inventing stuff. I'm like, no, no, no, and no. Okay. The US government shut down. This is where we got it wrong because it wasn't something we could know.

49:06And there's one bit we missed that we didn't really fully grok at the time. And that was the fact that once the reverse repo had been drained, which was a net stimulus, net liquidity boost, the rebuild of the Treasury General account, they build this bank account up and down. So it doesn't really matter. But when you've got no offset to it, and the Fed is doing QT, that was a 700 billion tightening in financial conditions since July. It was dramatic. And there's no offset. See, in 2023, when it happened, they were draining the reverse repo, and it offset it. But this one didn't have that. And so we didn't really see that.

49:54And that was what caused that global N2 chart that people just don't understand, because I said it's not going to work all the time. But why didn't it start? Why did it break apart? Well, it broke apart very simply because liquidity got sucked out of the system. And it got sucked out of the most beta to liquidity asset in the world is crypto. So it came out of crypto. And if you think of the crypto beta curve, you've got Bitcoin and then Solana, let's say, and then let's say Sui. They're all different levels of beta or leverage to this trade. And what happened is the quiddity starts coming out over this period.

50:40Now, the TGA should have been started draining two months ago. And once they drain it, it starts lifting asset prices significantly, the normal cycle. What happened this time is they shut down the government. So they couldn't drain it. So it got stuck at a trillion dollars. And normally, you drain it, but they didn't. So normally, we would have seen something like 2022, where we start to see a drain. We didn't get that because it got stuck, because they stopped spending money. So therefore, no liquidity in the system.

51:17Therefore, stuff like M2 doesn't flow through the system and things fall apart. Now, NASDAQ didn't because 80 % of all asset managers had underperformed the benchmarks this year because none of them had technology. And they still don't. There's still a record number who think AI is a bubble and therefore they're underexposed. So the more tech goes up, the more they have to buy into year end. And that dynamic is always very interesting. It's called performance or benchmark chasing. Added to the fact there's a load of buybacks in that sector as well, very hard to fade. Very hard to fade unless liquidity is fully, totally turned and rates are going up and all that kind of stuff, which is not happening.

52:00The other thing is, if we think about the crypto market outside of Bitcoin, you'll notice that none of these things have gone to new highs, really. I mean, Ethereum, Solana, none of this has. Why? Because it's driven by liquidity. US total liquidity has not gone to new highs yet, but it will over time because, again, to keep explaining this to you guys because you don't want to hear me, and you're losing patience, then you go, why didn't it go up, is we've got to do this game. We've got to pay for the interest on the debt. The only way of doing it is global liquidity, or is total liquidity. And as you go through, that then lifts that.

52:41So if you go back to that chart, there's the hockey stick over time, that longer-term version of the banana zone that has to come into play, because if not, the whole system falls apart. So there you go. Now, the last time it shut down was back in 2019. Again, we kind of broke the plumbing of the financial system back then.

53:03So good. We broke the plumbing back then. Once it reopened, so it shut down, the markets didn't like it for the same reasons. The plumbing started creaking. The Fed had to come in, start going back from QT to QE, and also injected liquidity. So here we are. The shutdown's ended. It takes a while before the money starts flowing. So the TGA's only just kind of released$40 billion. But we're expecting like$200 billion or$250 billion over the next two months. So, what happens then is eerily similar, should stabilize coming few days, next week, today, who the hell knows, doesn't really matter. I know it feels like it does, but it doesn't.

53:50And then the market took off like a rocket ship. And all of this is to say that the reason we look at all of this stuff is Bitcoin is and crypto is a macro asset class. That's the important thing to understand. What it means by macro, it's driven by macroeconomics. And macroeconomics, for me, is the business cycle. And here is the business cycle, up and down. We talked about that before. And lo and behold, remember that, the four-year cycle? Well, that was the crypto cycle. No shit, Sherlock, because it was the debt refinancing cycle. And right now, the ISM is kind of in that middle year where it's not hooked up, not grown.

54:32Bitcoin's slope has been frustrating for people. I want this bit. well, it's going to come in the next 12 months and everyone's going to go, he said that last year. He's a moron. He's just a snake oil salesman. Look, market analysis is not some sort of crystal ball where you see the absolute truth in everything. The everything code is the truth. How it plays out is still something we need to learn. And we need to understand the nuances. When the world gives you lemons like the government shutdown, you need to deal with it. You bought the ticket, you take the ride. And you just kind of grow up and deal with changing probabilities because that's how the world works.

55:20When we look at financial conditions, this is our financial conditions index, which is correlated to gold, as I said. Even though gold's not in the index. Total liquidity lags it by three months. So it's suggesting that liquidity should start rising, which makes sense because we know what we've got to do. We've got to pay the debt. And we know that TGA is going to be drained. And the QT is going to finish. And the Chinese are increasing the balance sheet. And we've got regulatory changes coming. And we've got rate cuts coming, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And the ISM, the business cycle, follows that.

55:57So the next thing for the business cycle is to go higher. Business cycle going higher means we'll have money in our pockets. It goes into risk assets, and that increases the price of crypto. It's not that complicated, but nobody wants to believe it because you're looking at five-minute charts and scratching your nuts wondering what's going on. You can't do stuff like that. It doesn't work. And demanding that you get paid. You can make all the demands you want. The market doesn't give a shit. And once you learn that, it's much easier to deal with. So the ISM, we're seeing that some of the surveys are starting to increase sharply as the tariff stuff happens and people start getting more comfortable.

56:47What we've seen is that empire survey started going up. It can diverge, obviously. But I think we'll see the ISM starting to come up. Bitcoin is already priced in the ISM really quite low at about 47. So Bitcoin's diverging from these surveys as well right now, because I think there's a liquidation going on in Bitcoin, because liquidity is starting to come back in. Crypto is trading like shit, like somebody got hosed in October the 10th and is unwinding something. That's what it feels like to me. And it feels like, and we'll come on to the sentiment in a sec, panic lows. Okay, the dollar, big component of all of this.

57:29The dollar is what is the main part of financial conditions, which leads. The dollar is following the last Trump cycle almost perfectly. Now, will the dollar, I mean, the dollar is still going higher, I think, in the short term, but it should roll over and have another leg lower. Doesn't change the world if it doesn't. It just means that we have a pretty good read on when the end of the cycle is, because this leads by like nine months. as part of our financial conditions index. But our general thesis is liquidity comes back. They start changing a few things with ESLR, stuff like that. And again, those of you on Real Vision, I can answer all the questions about this stuff tomorrow on the AMA.

58:09But generally speaking, as the liquidity comes back in, we should see the dollar have its final leg lower. Let me go on to the next bit. Technicals. so there's a few parallels again remember they're not going to be perfect don't explain to pay up perfectly think of its contextualization and understanding where you put it against 20 other things to try and ascertain what you think is going to happen so bitcoin um in 2024 24 basically repeating. I'm sorry, 25 repeating. Same correction, same correction. And you guys were losing your fucking shit back then as well. And guess what? It V-shaped out of it.

58:59But you don't remember that, do you? Because that would be too easy.

59:06Or whatever this correction was, July 24, 25... Same thing. Corrections are very similar. And we've got many of these charts of sort of similar style corrections. So I think we should continue that way. Bitcoin 14-day RSI, as oversold as it's ever been. And basically, after this, it can fuck around a bit and then slingshots out. So expect, you know, you can't digest a move like this instantly. but we're talking days, a week, two weeks maybe, before then the market takes off. It could also just come straight out of it like it did then. We have to wait and see. Weekly Bollinger Bands, that's the contraction in volatility.

59:53We got to these super low levels. Every time we got to these levels, we shot out of the gate. Yeah, 189%, 125%, 107%. It works really well. and you've all forgotten that you were feeling the same in April last year. And I was pointing this exact thing out to you. Oh, we've already just had one of these. And that was the one, the prior year that finished in September, where you were losing your minds. And you were losing your mind saying, why is it not working? Everything's broken. Nothing happened. Boom. The market shot up. I mean, it went from September, wherever it was, 50 ,000 to over 100 ,000.

1:00:34That's Bitcoin. And then it went from 75 ,000 to like 120 ,000 after the last one. So where are we now? 28 % correction. Oh, guess what? They were both 28 % corrections. Will it be exactly 28 %? Will it be 30%, 32 %? I don't know, and I don't care. Unless you think the cycle is over, in which you have to show me other data than, well, they told me the cycle finishes after four years, so it's over. That's just not an argument. the other thing is because you've all lost your shit you're throwing poo at each other the fear and greed index is absolutely shockingly low we've had a whole series like five days or four days where it's been below 20 which is almost unheard of it's like 2022 levels so everybody is in extreme fear you think the cycle's over and all it's been doing is doing the same old shit.

1:01:29And it always does this. So these are all the corrections we've had since the start. We're at a 20%, a 20%, a 20%, a 21%, a 33%, 31%, a 28%. And then we look at it back in the previous cycle, 31%, 9%, 21%, 14%. And the previous one to that was all 35, 40%. Then 50%. And it's like, Guys, this is what you pay in volatility for the returns that you get. Look at the returns.

1:02:072 ,000%, 476%, 11 ,000%, 55 ,000. I know they're diminishing over time. But when you look at things like others, which is the more speculative end of the crypto market, i.e. everything below the top 10, the corrections are 60%. And it still powers ahead. So the further out the risk curve, the larger the corrections, and the larger the comeback is when it comes back. So big picture, zoom out. This is total market crypto minus Bitcoin. Looks all right to me. Total market crypto minus Bitcoin and ETH. Looks right to me. Market cap of crypto minus the top 10 tokens. This is the others. Looks fine to me.

1:03:00What evidence do you have that it's all over? That the four-year cycle is Satoshi's gift to the world, so any dribbling moron can follow the cycle. It just doesn't work that way. Okay, let's look at some technicals. I use DMARC indicators. will do something with DeMarc. They've now got them on TradingView. It's a paid service, but nothing like how expensive it cost me on Bloomberg because it's a cut-down version. DeMarc is the technical system that Tom DeMarc built. There's a whole course on Real Vision on DeMarc by Tom DeMarc. We're the only people in the world to have that. It was a system I learned back in 2000, 1999.

1:03:46It is what Stevie Cohen, one of the world's greatest traders of all time, uses. John Burbank, Stan Druckenmiller. I mean, you name it. Lee Cooperman. A lot of people use DMARC. And so DMARC indicators. You're looking for these 9s and 13s. I'm not going to explain it all to you. You can just take a snapshot, stick it into chat, GPT will tell you. But anyway, daily 9 today. It's possible that we base today. I don't know. I haven't seen the NVIDIA results. I don't know anything. It's possible. or we count down to another daily 13, which is seven days away. But either way, it's getting pretty low, considering how washed out sentiments was and all the other things I showed you.

1:04:26Here's Ethereum. We put another 13. 13s are really powerful signals, often signal the end of a trend. We've had two 13s in a row. We're down on the trend line, which is kind of down all of this area here. Feels like it's pretty decent level. Here's Sui. Sui is back at this level here. where congestion before, it's counted down to the nine. We're at nine out of 13, so another four days it would have that as well. The nine out of 13 tend to be killer signals, but the nines have worked perfectly over time, nine, nine, nine, nine. They work really well. That one didn't work. It had a counter trend move and then counts down to the nines and thirteens.

1:05:04Anyway speaking, it's all probabilities, no certainties. There's no magic thing that's going to get you right 100 % of the time. What you're trying to be is more right over time. The weekly series chart Really nice pattern again. We've got the 13, and we're in week seven. So could we count and get another couple of weeks here? Possible. I mean, that would be just icing on the cake. Icing on the cake with cherry on top if we were to get there. Are we going to get that? No, because we never get nice things, right? But let's – people – the market wants to make it hard for us. It will make it hard for us.

1:05:42Okay. Let's get some facts together. Bitcoin corrected, 32%, 32%. Why there were 28? Oh, Julian was using closing prices, and I use open high lows. Right now, it's about 28%. This is normal. You have lived it before. So it's like going, oh, my God, I've woken up and the sun's up. Oh, my God, the world's going to end. What's that ball in the sky? Well, it happens every morning. Well, yesterday was cloudy. I know, but the sun is still there. So you've lived this before. You understand the volatility. Oh my God, it's so hot. Yeah, because the sun's come up. Solana corrected. This is now the risk curve that I talk about.

1:06:2347%, 67%, currently 48%. Oh, you see the stair step. SUI, newer token, lower free flow. SUI corrected 69%. Then went up 150 % in a month to new highs. 79 % in 2024. I don't know if any of you even remember the 79%. then it rallied 412 % in two months, 412%. Then it fell 68 % in 2025 and rallied 157 % in two months. And right now, we're down 65%. It's normal. That's what it should be for this maturity of asset and where it fits in the risk curve. This is all kind of normal. And so I finish off with this as ever, it's kind of my gift to you, and people still don't get it, is we're in this for the long run.

1:07:20Yeah, sure, you might want to take some lifestyle chips off. But really, if you're trying to do it cycle by cycle, you will fuck it up. And I've explained this all the time. The longer term time horizon, by being in it for one, two, three cycles, is where you really compound wealth. to try and think you're going to time the top because I think probabilistically speaking, all the people who think they've timed the four-year cycle and they've gotten out because they're so fucking smart will have proved to have been wrong. Maybe. I think I'm so fucking smart, I'd be proven to be wrong. Something's going to be wrong somewhere.

1:08:01And that's how hard it is to get these tops right. But if you stay in it, and then your dollar cost average when it falls, you compound over time. I keep explaining this to people that can't understand it. You guys get freaked out every time by the volatility, and the volatility is your friend. And I keep explaining. Then I've had to say, okay, we'll take some lifestyle chips off. And then it's like, well, my bag's on up enough. I'm like, I don't know how to help, apart from explain patience, time horizon, and don't overcommit. and this is the don't fuck this up is the over committing no leverage no fomo having high quality assets all these people it's like yeah but you fuck me because the markets are down and my my holdings are shit i'm like your holdings are shit if you you don't you don't blindly copy me because i've got a higher risk appetite than you because i've got the ability to generate income and savings and assets.

1:08:56So if I'm 80 % SUI, that is not what you copy. Please don't do that. I'll hone some Bitcoin, some Solana, some SUI, and some ETH, and I'll be fine. And you'll be absolutely fine. Again, if you're doing degenerate stuff, do it with the small stuff, even with the DeFi stuff, just don't lose control of your tokens. The longer-term time horizon, zoom out, expect pullbacks frequently and by the fucking dip if you can. Here we are. You should be begging anybody for money right now on the streets. Maybe if you can play guitar, do something, stand on your head for 10 minutes, and even do one of those stupid bloody statue things.

1:09:38Anything. Just get some money and put it into the markets. I put some in a week before last at higher prices. But again, I'm not expecting to time it perfectly. So there we are. I've given you everything. I've tried to explain how to help. I've given you how to drink civilized gin and tonics. I'm going to now move across the Royal Vision platform and answer questions. I've been running an hour, so we'll do another half an hour on the platform. I'll try and get through as many. Don't forget, Black Friday sale. and with lots of big discounts coming. So take advantage of that. Join the platform. Join these AMAs.

1:10:27I've got the AMA tomorrow. So anyone on the platform who's a paying member, I'll be there with Julian answering questions for as long as we can. And then Andreas and Jamie after that, here to help you. That's our jobs, here to help you, here to learn like you all are. and if you're on the platform i'll see you in a sec as we switch over and goodbye everybody else good luck out there um i know it's difficult i do appreciate it um and you know i'm only joking with you all we're all trying to figure this out the best we can so cut everybody some slack um and i'll see you around you obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end but listen don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future.

1:11:21So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join.