On The Margin Podcast: Raoul Pal's Crypto SUMMER Market Predictions

24:26And really, it's about technology. It's about the AI and the robots are infinite population. People don't get it yet. But like Amazon has gone from 250 ,000 robots in three years to three quarters of a million robots. Soon, it'll be got past the workforce of Amazon itself in human terms. And these things are three to 10 times more productive. So we are replacing an aging human workforce with infinite AI and robots. So what that does is makes a mockery of that magic formula. What, we can have infinite population? Well, the other side of that is, okay, well, infinite robots and AI means an infinite use of electricity and compute.

25:14So compute, everybody's solving the electricity side. Well, that is productivity. And productivity, again, I love the mid-curve take of spin to it. It's like the Europeans have no fucking clue what they're doing. They're throwing money at this stupid greener energy narrative. They completely understand what they are doing. is forcing down the cost of capital into innovation in lowering the cost of electricity. Because fossil fuels over the years, basically, electricity costs have been stable. We haven't really made much progress with that. But we can. We've seen the Moore's law working in EV and solar and in wind and in geothermal and eventually in nuclear.

25:59We've got more than enough energy. It of storage and distribution and all of that. So the Europeans are pouring money in. People don't realize the Chinese have been doing even more. The Chinese, 40 % of their entire car fleet is now electric. And so they're all forcing down the cost of energy. So think of the magic formula. You're about to increase population infinitely. And you're about to, over the next 10 years, dropped the cost of electricity by 75%. That multiplier is bananas. You don't need anything else to solve this. Now, we had the same situation in the 1950s coming out of World War II, where the crash of 29, which was basically 2008.

26:43World War II, let's use the pandemic, everybody comes back into the workforce, we get the inflation, all of that story. But really what they did was yield curve control and then let productivity pick it up. Now, they didn't need the robots because what do they have? They had the baby boom generation. They all got born in 1950. It's like us birthing the robots now, right? And the AI, it's the same thing. It was like a 30 % increase in the global population happened. Well, no shit. It all worked out because GDP picked up, productivity picked up, and the world was sold. We're going to do exactly the same rulebook now.

27:21Yeah. So basically, it sounds like you view debt and debt monetizing as basically being this bridging point to get us to that point. It'll allow us to keep society afloat and allow us to do the CapEx investments required to get to that point. Exactly. Because the alternative that FinTwit would love to scream to you about is they should get out of the way and let it all burn. Nobody has a comprehension of that. When the world is 350 % of GDP in debt, what exactly does that mean? Does that mean we go back to the dark ages? Does that mean we break all global trade? Nobody's going to do that. And I kind of understand if there's an 8 % cost of not doing that, I'll take that using the everything code.

28:03I know where to invest and I can offset that cost and that's fine. Yeah. I mean, I get it. You know, it was like I'm obviously, you know, around 30 years old. And so my generation is trying to figure out, okay, how the hell do I buy a house, right? and you know so you see all these things going on and you know i'm in canada like i'm saying so here it's like especially bad because it was created this real estate ponzi and so now like none of my generation can own a house um and you know we want to hear them talk about bringing down housing prices but at the same time everybody's leveraged the shit out of their house to fund their lives so again there's issues to it so then you're left frustrated figuring out what to do I think that's where your thesis of crypto and exponential assets comes in, right?

28:45Yeah, you see, in debasement cycle, the problem is scarce assets go up because of the debasement, but variable income doesn't. It goes with GDP. So your salary, yes, you're 30, so your earnings go up over time. But generally speaking, offset for that, wages go with GDP. Of course they do. And if GDP is slow, wage growth is slow. So what's happening is everybody's getting poorer. And in countries, the two worst for it are Australia and Canada, where you jammed in huge influx of immigrants with a lot of capital and a big pension system, you drive up the cost of real estate. So that's what's happened.

29:27So nobody will ever get ahead. This is exactly the same mechanism that people don't understand, which is price earnings ratios keep going up. It was like, it's all overvalued. It's a bubble. No, that's variable. and that goes with GDP and that's fixed because P is driven by debasement. So they're going to keep going up. It's a perfect trend. Hello, hello, listeners of On The Margin. I've got good news for those of you who are in the crypto scene. Blockworks is bringing back Permissionless. We're going to be doing Permissionless 3 and this year we are heading west. So we're moving that out to Salt Lake City.

29:58That's going to be October 9th through 11th this year. We've got a phenomenal lineup of speakers for you. So we've got Balaji headlining. We've got Sriram, Munib, Matt Hogan of Bitwise Jan Van Eck this one's going to be a blast guys and I saw many of you out in London for a DAS this year and I hope to see you out in Salt Lake for permissionless and because y 'all are such faithful listeners we've got views code margin10 you're going to get 10 % off your tickets appreciate you all hope to see you out there you know that sets you up nicely for again your thesis of crypto where do you stand on that these days and I'd love for you to separate your views on what do you think is a really good risk reward trade and what do you think maybe philosophically on some of these assets itself?

30:38Because I know you went through your journey originally through Bitcoin and then Ethereum, deep in the Solana ecosystem now, and there's a lot of opportunities there. I'm going to put it differently in a way that I've started trying to communicate with people to understand this. And this is very pertinent to you. If we're trying to take the 30-year-old as the demographic, the 30s to 35, and it's global, right? So what we've got here is a global utility, which is blockchain, much like the internet, was. Now, unlike any of these global utility networks, trains, road systems, all of this, you couldn't invest in them.

31:15But because this is tokenized, you've got a behavioral incentive system to grow the network, which is the more people come onto the network, the more the number go up, the more people come on the network. And therefore, the more capital in the network, the more applications get built, the more the network gets used, right? It's fucking genius. And we've never seen anything like this, where we're all part of it. So here we've got this asset class, which is a globally homogenous asset, which doesn't exist. Gold is the only one. But gold, if you go to a village in India, the bid offer spread is 50%.

31:47Here we've got tradable on a mobile phone in India, the Philippines, Fiji, New York, Vancouver, the Cayman Islands, the same thing. And it happens to be the infrastructure layer to the internet for value and storage. And it's that distributed database, which is a public service utility good. OK, brilliant. It's a$2.5 trillion market cap today. If we just extrapolate out the trend rate of growth, it gets to$100 trillion by about 2032. to. Okay, so this is the biggest wealth generating opportunity in all human history. So you've got this in front of you, which is this whole how to unfuck my future.

32:33Part of it is this. The other thing is don't fuck this up. Never get thrown off this horse. Because this is the one, this is the big one. This is the greatest macro gift of all time to get everybody out of this shit that they're in. So it's there in front of you. So then people are like, yeah, but what am I investing? I'm like, okay, listen, detune all the noise. There's a bunch of decentralized businesses that sell block space. And they all have different types of block space. One's going, hey, mine's the most secure and the oldest. Somebody else is like, well, mine's the internet computer. And somebody's like, mine's the internet computer, but faster.

33:09They're just selling block space. So there's a bunch of companies selling block space or applications on top of that block space. That's all the space is. It's just a technology and it's an adoption. So our job within this is now not get philosophical and tribal about where do I invest in that technology and screw it up. Our job is to maximize the opportunity to the best we can. And that's a balance of how do you take risk? Because a lot of people go, max 10 risk. Like, no, no, no, no. Look, if it's going for$2.5 trillion to$100 trillion, you don't need to take max risk. You can just capture the bulk and then do a bit of the tail on the side.

33:50yeah and i think that's something that a lot of people miss and i know that you know some people give you a lot of shit sometimes for just not understanding time horizons and position sizing i would love to just hear a bit more about those two and just like how you deal with that never ending circle of like oh ralph how's max long whiff or something because he's not he's managing his risk and his time horizons and i try and really i try and communicate it but people don't want to hear it is the point. This is a narrative-driven attention space. And so they just want what they can do. I made it very clear all the way through, hey, 90 % of my liquid net worth is basically allocated right now to Solana.

34:30I moved some from ETH. I don't have much Bitcoin right now. Doesn't mean I don't like Bitcoin. I just think the others go up more. Simple as that. I own a bunch of high-end NFTs that I think I have another thesis about. And then beyond that, I do a bit of speculation and other stuff, but the fun of it. But the time horizon thing is I can see it freaks everybody out. And I've stepped back, and it was only in the last two weeks I've realized the real thing that's going on on crypto Twitter and why the banana zone resonates and why you get this backlash is this is everybody's hopes and dreams. It's yours.

35:06It's mine. It's everybody's. right so they're so scared of it going wrong yet they're some so greedy to get it right this is the struggle that everybody's having and people have ptsd from the last cycle as the people did from the previous cycle right the previous cycle was the blow off top and then the collapse this one was the stunted top and then the clap and so now people they worry about the cycle I don't remember Jeff Bezos caring about the business cycle. He just owned his stock. If you're in a secular bull market, there is demand for the good that you produce, in this case, block space, premium block space, then why the fuck are you trading it?

35:51What you should do is buy all the sell-offs. If it goes down 85%, you're like, hell yes. It took me a long time to realize that because I too was the macro cyclical guy, And I think, well, let's sell it at the top. So I think I can predict somewhat the tops from the everything code cycle and the usual bunch of stuff. But does it really matter? As a 30-year-old, yeah, OK, you might want a house. So there's lifestyle chips. OK, fine. But I tell you, if you've made a ton of money and you take it off at the high and you nail it, you will not put the same amount back in at the low, down 85%. And when everybody's calling you a criminal, they're going to shoot everybody involved in crypto.

36:34There's going to be the gulags for crypto investors. You're like, I'm not doing it. And you will end up screwing the whole thing up. The other one I was talking to Chris Berniski about is people are really getting concerned about where does the top come? Is it early? Is it normal? Every time, it's always been December. But for some reason, everyone's freaked out it's going to be a different time now. OK, fine. And that's because of PTSD. But it's not that. I don't know. None of us know. There's going to be a bubble top. It doesn't matter. What is the one that scares me is what happens if the correction in 2026, because we don't have 22, we don't have the beating out of massive inflation and the pandemic stuff.

37:19But imagine if we just only went down 40 % in Bitcoin and 20 % in NASDAQ. This is kind of my favor probability. Sure, there's a whole bunch of alts that are going to go down 99%. I'm just talking about Bitcoin. Everybody's going to miss the trade because they're waiting for the down 70%. Yeah. Do you think ETFs play a big part in that suppression of all, or at least providing a floor to it? Yeah, I think so. I think younger people in the US can use their 401ks and dollar-cost average on a two-weekly basis, and they do that a lot. So I think that helps. It's not fully in swing yet. I also think that the ability options are probably out by then.

38:03That probably dampens volatility. And just maturity and understanding of what the network is. Next time around, it won't be. It's all a scam. It'll be, oh, the business cycle, liquidity. You know, much like it. I mean, I can't see a big crash in the Nasdaq, not with this unbelievable kind of mega trend of AI, compute, EV, robotics, you know, all of that stuff. So a lot of them, if you go back to all of these business cycles since 2008, most of them have had stuff like the Nasdaq trading down 20%, down 25 % for a year. it's boring and i think that that feels like because the super narrative of all these technologies coming together is so big and the capital that it feels like that the biggest risk is that is it doesn't go down a lot yeah it's really interesting that the cynicism and like it feels like this cycle nobody really believes in the tech anymore and you know part of that is valid based off like what happened last time with you know there's a lot of uh vaporous um claims and accusations and you know they're suddenly it's just like oh okay it's just a way for you know vcs to get their unlocks um i know you're pretty deep in the world you know you have a fund of funds and and you're you're looking in that space you know it's sort of in an indirect way how do we fix that sentiment is it just time and you know is there any other ways to manage it other than what you mentioned about you know just not trying to nail tops and bottoms and just ride the exponential wave.

39:36The sentiment has always been that ICOs had the same. Everybody in the last cycle had PTSD over ICOs. Meanwhile, stable coins are getting adopted by the fucking EU. I mean, the adoption of blockchain technology is undeniable. People just go back to time horizon. They expect it all tomorrow. Why hasn't Google gone to a web-free business and meta? And why is the entire financial system not on new blockchain rails by the end of this week on my blockchain? I'm like, it doesn't work like that. It's all at the margin until it's exponential. So I just think it's a time horizon issue. And people are new to this kind of stuff of understanding both exponentials and long duration assets.

40:20But when you look back, when I look back at my first Bitcoin investment at 200, I mean, what a different world. 200 you know but you didn't see it then it's very difficult to see because of exponentials do you still think there's a space for something like bitcoin because i mean as you mentioned like there's it's great and all but there's other things to get into that'll probably have a way better risk adjusted performance but like where do you think that like i know you talked a bit about sometimes it being like this like you know sovereign collateral i'm you know that's just like immutable and and just there do you still think there's something like that for the world you I do.

40:56But pristine collateral is not likely to be the best performing asset. Totally. The safest asset is never the best performing. It's simple. There's a risk curve. Now, it has performed very well this cycle, but it always does at the beginning of the cycle. So yes, I do think the Bitcoin business of selling their block space is pretty robust, particularly in a world of debasement of currency and sovereigns understand the game. so I do think it gets adopted more and more and more it doesn't do anything else really yes we're trying to build rooms and ordinals and other stuff but really it just does what it says on the tin and that works really well it's an anti-debasement machine that has adoption effects so I do think that bitcoin holds its narrative but over time its dominance falls just as the space gets bigger you know it's July 2nd we've mentioned this whole banana zone I think a couple of times.

41:50I would love for you to just explain that for those that may not know what we're talking about, and then how that relates to where you think we are right now in terms of price, cycle, et cetera. So Julian Battelle and myself kind of used the term actually the last quarter last year. We said, hey, listen, liquidity is picking up. The pre-election cycle, it usually goes bananas. And then we called it banana zones. The front cover of Global macro investor was banana zone. And then we started realizing, you know what, the macro summer and macro fall or autumn, that's the massive banana zone. And then you see that beautiful chart of Bitcoin every cycle, and it goes vertical.

42:30And you're like, well, it just looks like a banana. And the banana zone says everything. It goes bananas. It looks like a banana. It's funny because it's kind of phallic. It's memeable. And so, but as I said, that is the banana is the the big yellow candle of our hopes and dreams is all carried into that. And that's the liquidity cycle, the everything code cycle. If you want to use the Bitcoin halving cycle, which I don't really do, but it's all the same thing. It's all there. And this is the point. And it's all held in that yellow fruit.

43:04Which is destined to go higher. Yeah, it makes sense. Do you view that same banana zone for, you know, I know we've been talking a lot about crypto, but you're also looking at those exponential assets, which is basically how AI and all that stuff intertwines. I think that's been a really interesting framework when you look at what's been going on with the NASDAQ and market breadth is people have just been pulling their hair apart, trying to figure out, oh my God, why is implied correlations at the lowest ever? Market breadth is at the lowest ever. It's all NVIDIA. But I would love to hear you explain how that actually ties in a lot to what you've been talking about and whether you think that banana zone applies to it as well.

43:38It's all so fucking mid-curve.

43:44I mean, I've explained there are two assets in a secular bull market, technology and crypto, arguably crypto technology, but that's it. So number go up the most. We've gained through the fastest period of change in technology in all human history. We've just brought into the world infinite human intelligence to the power of whatever. We don't even know to the power of what, the power of 10, the power of 100? We've just replaced humans by robotics. We've got cars that drive themselves. We're able to edit the human gene. We've got just La La Land stuff going on, the book of sci-fi novels. And these are companies with products.

44:29We're not even talking about them anymore. These are actually happening. And people yet still, people want to invest in old stuff because hey it's cheap here you're like what are you missing do you really think anybody cares about your gold mine really when you've got what's going on now that doesn't mean all these stocks go up forever it doesn't mean they don't go into bubble cycles it's none of that but it's like if you are to choose an asset in a highly correlated world choose the best performing asset let's say you don't trade crypto you're doing yourself a disservice if you don't own technology.

45:04And I can hear people now going, well, he's just a bubble. It's all a bubble. You know, you need real cash flows and real this. It's like, I can't help you. I think people want to believe you, but they get hung up on fractals of what happened in 2000 and that sort of thing. But I do think people want to believe you. It's just, they're like, oh my God, but what if like, look at all these grifters or like what happened to Cisco and all of that? Yeah. And look what happened to Amazon and Google and Facebook. I mean, it's all mid-curve. And I don't mean that as an insult. We've all been there. It's like once you simplify it all down, stop all of the monkey voices in your head.

45:41Filter out all of the noise from Twitter. It's like, is tomorrow more digital than today? Yes, no. If yes, continue. It's as simple as that. It's like the world is going to be more digital tomorrow. End of story. So even if you do have a bubble cycle and then a crash, what should you do? you should buy more technology why because tomorrow's more digital than today i mean it's really i've really got it down to the most ridiculously simple theses and it's embarrassing i know it's embarrassing because people like these guys are more on i'm like i've done honestly 35 years of work on this i think i'm right but you know we'll see well i've seen it i mean like you know when you were posting those charts let's say looking at like you know x divided by federal bank balance sheet.

46:27People will be like, that's a spurious correlation. You need to be doing better aggressions and all of that. But I mean, I don't know, you can't fight the price action. And so it's not just a science. It's also an art. And I think people miss that sometimes. And also, look, most regression analysis is do two points exactly meet? And do they follow each other, the points? Well, if there's any lag leads, all the regression falls apart. It's like my game, I did this I went to Oxford University and gave a lecture I was never smart enough to go to Oxford but they asked me to come and do a lecture at the finance club or whatever and I turned up and my speech was everything they teach at university about economics is bullshit and I just showed them I'm like okay so you know talk to me about your economics models and they all have these lovely linear models I'm like okay so here's the chart of GDP what is the feature of GDP.

47:20It's like, ask a child that goes up and down. Why do none of your models have an up and down business cycle? They're like, oh. I'm like, if a child can see that the NASDAQ is 97.5 % correlated with global liquidity, the probability is that it is. It's that simple. Totally. And they go, oh yeah, but you can have shark attacks versus cornflake sales. I'm like, do you honestly think we're talking about different things here? It's just, again, it's mid-curving it. It's finding, and I think mid-curving a lot is fear. It's fear. You kind of go out of your comfort zone and you expose yourself to, listen, I've got something really simple, but very powerful.

48:06And people just say, it can't be true. It can't be true. Now, I'm not the one discovering technology, stocks i'm the moron who discovered them too late if i'd have just done that earlier in my career i'd have been a lot wealthier you know i was there for the whole internet thing missed it all i was the macro cynic no it's a bubble it's going to mean reverts this and that wrong all of it was wrong yeah how do you i know it's such a simple question to ask but like how do you get comfortable to get to where you've been because it's a journey i've been through that journey too you know i was I was the guy that was thinking about oh my god like any day now we're going to get that left tail wrist we're going to get a reception etc etc etc but eventually you get to this point of more nuanced thinking and then maybe you get even to being more optimistically thinking and you know there's there's parts of that that I live in both in terms of where you have but like any other tips on how to actually do that because it's hard to go through that journey yeah change your mindset to look forward to sell-offs.

49:06Think, okay, somebody's given you a wealth compounding machine and you get to have a go back. Let's say Bitcoin price goes to 200 ,000 and it comes back down to 70 ,000. You get to have another go again. That's a gift. I mean, Anson put it on Twitter and he's dead right. It's like, I cannot believe they give us this gift every four years where it becomes the worst performing asset and we get to make another 20, 30, 40x. And so if you use that mindset to say, hey, I'm in this for the long run. I'm going to stay in this trend probably for the rest of my investing life. I'll take money off and I'll do the normal things.

49:48But this is my investing journey now, like you do with your 401k or whatever it is. Then you should be very excited and thinking how do I hoard as much cash as possible in 2025? so in 2026 you can play chris boniski on the internet which is you know he he got it dead right he'd hoarded cash and and nailed it and you know i was still scrambling around adding i'm gonna luckily added all the way through but i didn't have a big cash pile to do it with i wish i had now people might say yeah but that's why you sell out of the top don't do that you can sell some out but the thing is is just buy the discounted prices if you get them when you get them and And you don't have to worry about nailing the load because you haven't got the money in the market, all sorts of weird stuff that happens.

50:34So it's basically not fearing things. It's looking forward to things. If you face your fear and actually turn it into your friend, it doesn't become a fear anymore. It's a psychological trick that works for every single thing in life. Most people live with their fears. They lie in bed thinking, fuck, am I going to make as much money as I want? Is the banana going to happen? And then am I going to lose it all? Okay, because they're thinking too short term. they're not thinking what it could be. They're not thinking about, okay, how do I de-risk it so I don't have to have these thoughts in the middle of the night, that monkey brain can go to sleep, and how can I get excited about the sell-off?

51:09Change that. You've changed everything. I want to ask you about how this framework gets affected by potential political uncertainty. And the reason I like, you know, we could talk about what happened at the debate. You know, we're two guys that are on the outside of the U.S. Well, I mean, I know you're in Miami right now, but I'm up in Canada, you're on the Cayman Islands, and you have a lot of history in Europe. So you're not Native American. But looking at what's been happening, there's a lot at stake and that can affect a lot of potential policy, especially even around crypto right now. How do you manage what you're seeing in there?

51:42It feels to me like this whole fourth turning thing is just being accelerated right now in politics. How do you view what we're seeing right now and how does that get applied to that framework? That's really interesting. I kind of zoom out. So anything about crypto and regulation, everything else i just see as the fight of the generations that has to happen and that's all part of the fourth turning i see the inability for institutions to deal with the technology so ai and they've got no chance of trying to regulate this thing in any meaningful way particularly because these are all distributed systems they're everywhere and nowhere they have no chance.

52:21So I see that. And Neil Howe talked about a need for new institutions and infrastructure. Well, that's clear. I see the rise of populism, which is really different people blaming the others for the issue of the debt and the fact that there was too many baby boomers, and they've all had kids. So there's too many people in the workforce. Wages never went up. Then the debasement happened. And they're just blaming each other that they were actually the problem, which is weird. It's weird to realize that. And I don't think that goes away until technology takes over. But then we've got the whole fear of technology.

53:09We think the blockchain fear has been big. I mean, Christ. I mean, that's about maybe a new system of money and otherwise a different use of the internet. It's hardly a big deal versus the existential crisis of humanity. But we're going to face that one too. And I think we will split into two tribes and it's not the left and right tribe, although it is kind of partly divided on those lines. It's the accelerationists and the decelerationists. It's those who are going to merge with the technology to use it as much as possible and those who want to stay away from it. and you know there is a philosophical level well a realistic level we end up becoming two different species the biohackers and all of that going into that and yeah yeah i mean you know there's whatever it may be we are merging with the machines look at neural link pacemakers you know we've had technology in our bodies for a long time but we'll accelerate it to enhance our longevity and our abilities our cognitive abilities our physical abilities our genetic abilities, and there'll be people who don't want that.

54:15So you're going to have a bunch of people who are super powerful, super smart, living forever, and a bunch of people who don't want that. Well, it's like Neanderthal man versus Homo sapiens. Those coexisted for a while until they didn't. So we've got a lot still to go in all of that. I mean, there's no period of harmony in any of this. There's never going to be. There's too much change. Humans aren't very harmonious when the rate of change isn't. So even me, how I thought about this again is I can either sit there worrying at night about all of this, or I can just invest in it. And then it doesn't matter.

54:56I can go over to my house in Little Cayman, an island with 140 people, where the robots probably aren't coming. I say that now, and I've got one of those robot vacuum cleaners. but so maybe I'm fooling myself, but I kind of think that little island doesn't get touched and I can exist in both worlds. That's how I feel out here in the Canadian mountains too, is that I have my serenity and then I can get online and see what the hell's going on. Well, I just think nature trades at a premium. Yeah. If we're living more and more of our lives like this online, nature is a really powerful balancing force.

55:35and I think it's a premium experience. I mean, I love what you're doing. I made those same lifestyle choices. I went to Spain, came and asked exactly the same thing as you're doing. It's like if I'm lucky enough to be liberated in where I live, I'm going to live in a place where the best quality of life for me. That's it. It's brilliant. Yeah, totally. Awesome, Raul. Well, I can't thank you enough for coming over to the BlockWorks side of things. I love everything you do and what you're doing at Real Vision and all of that. but any last thoughts there before we head off? Look, again, I'm going to say, I know the banana zone is everybody's hopes and dreams.

56:11We're all in it together. Just have patience. Don't push it. Just, you know, it's summer. Maybe go on holiday. Touch some grass. Touch some sand. See some friends. See some family. And by the time you come back refreshed, things will be kicking off. Yeah, agreed. Go enjoy the summer. All right. I really enjoyed it. So thank you for having me on. Yeah, appreciate it. And hope that hurricane misses your house. Yeah, me too. Jesus. All right. Thanks.

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58:30Thank you.