Raoul’s Masterclass in Macro, Tech and Crypto

29:29Now, can this lag? Will this be perfect? No, I don't think so. Can it lag? Sorry, yes, but it won't be perfect. But directionally, you kind of understand the scope of the problem and the cowbell is needed. Cowbell is that term, just in case you don't know, which is my term for stimulus. It's from that Saturday Night Live sketch, more cowbell. It's like more stimulus, more sugar. It's that. And that's what I think we need to get through this. Okay. Finally, in the liquidity section, this is our 15-month lead. Because of that global cycle repeating because of these interest payments, we're in a perfectly cyclical world.

30:13This perfectly cyclical world means things become more forecastable. Again, I don't expect perfection, but I expect it to very much follow the path of the past. and that would suggest that liquidity is going to keep rising all the way into 2025. Hey everyone, we're going to take a quick pause and hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back. Alongside brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Evans and Balaji, I'll be on stage exploring the extraordinary potential of AI and the profound change it represents, not just for financial markets, but also for the world as we know it. With over 5 ,000 attendees and over 150 side events, Singapore will become a vibrant hub for a full week from the 3rd to the 9th of June.

31:01Visit superai.com to register and join me with 20 % off tickets with the code REALVISION. Link in the description. That cyclicality that seems predictable according to the everything code means that all assets essentially correlate it. It's all part of the same cycle. Some things lead, some things lag. And that means you almost get no diversification in your portfolio. They're all the same. Whether you choose emerging markets, commodities, tech, crypto, it's all the business cycle. So you might as well choose the things that go up the most. And those things also happen to be on a risk-adjusted basis.

31:51Better bets too. That gets me really interested. I've gone from running much broader diversified portfolios to ultra, ultra concentrated. because if this everything code is right, this is a fucking gift. It's a gift for all of us. It's the one great macro trade. If that is right, then you should be taking as much risk as you can afford to according to your risk profile. And I'm taking a shit ton for me because I strongly believe in the work that we've done. This is thousands of charts and 30 years of work. I don't see a reason we'll get it wrong, but I'll keep you guys posted if things change.

32:32Because you know what? Nothing is perfect and I'm far from perfect. As I say on my Twitter handle, I'm clearly not a guru. Okay, I care about secular trends. Secular cycles, when you get them and capture them in the right points of the business cycle, become explosive. Remember that chart of the NASDAQ, the beach ball underwater exploding above the water because the Fed just took the foot off the gas pedal or the brake, sorry. That's the power of a secular trend. It outperforms any other trend and it's more calibrated to financial conditions. It's more juiced by the business cycle than anything else.

33:17These are the things that matter to me. And there's two massive secular trends that dwarf all others. Crypto. Here's the chart, the long-term chart of Bitcoin since 2013. Some people use this chart longer term. I used to. But the early cycle was so kind of ridiculous that it screws up the chart. Other than that, it's actually a perfect log trend. And as you know, we think the business cycle peaks sometime in end of 2025. And that would suggest a crazy sort of target that could get somewhere between half a million and a million dollars in Bitcoin. Do I expect that? Probably not. But who the hell knows, right?

34:00These cycles can be crazy. And this one feels more like the 2017-16-17 cycle than it does the prior cycle. And that cycle didn't have a lot of central bank printing. We're not in the US, but central bank balance sheets were rising. We saw 20 % growth of liquidity, and what happened was crypto absolutely exploded. I kind of feel like that's the case. I don't focus on the end target. I focus on the structure. But I'm just showing you the magnitude of the opportunity, and we're still at one standard deviation oversold. It's all to play for. We've barely started. it. NASDAQ, another beautiful logarithmic trend.

34:45I mean, this is a killer. That's all you need to know. Is the world going to be more digital tomorrow than it is today? Yes. Will it be more digital in two years' time than it is today? Yes. Will technology reach more adoption in the coming two years? Yes or no? Yes. I ran that poll on Twitter. 95 % of people agree with me, yet most people keep missing this trend. They don't want to believe it. It's expensive. I think it's a bubble. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, best fucking trend you've ever seen. So just capture the trend. It suggests the Nasdaq somewhere between 25 and 30 ,000 at the end of this cycle.

35:27That's another great set of returns. So those are the two mega trends. How do they compare? Well, simply put, going back to 1990, come at the dawn of the internet and computing ages, the NASDAQ has just relentlessly outperformed. All of the noise you see on Twitter, oh, I mean reverting, the NASDAQ's expensive, blah, blah, blah, blah. It is the biggest trend you've ever been given. And many of us in macro land didn't see this. We kept fighting it because of what happened in 2000. The bubble and bust. But that, as you can see, was extraordinary. The rest? Super smooth. It's the same log trend. And I don't see that changing.

36:13Could we create another bubble based on AI in the exponential age? Sure. Let's make some bloody money from it, as George Soros would say. But I don't see any elements of a bubble. It's just a normal trend that eats all other equity sectors alive. There is no point owning other stocks. Every other bet is suboptimal in this world where everything is correlated. So if you're going to take bets, buy the NASDAQ. If you want to outperform the NASDAQ, buy the semis. If you want to outperform the semis, buy the exponential age basket. Simple as that. Crypto, so sorry, to go back to the NASDAQ S &P chart, it's outperformed the S &P since 1990 by about 5 % a year.

36:58That's including the crash. If you go on the recent trend, it's about 13 % a year. It absolutely crushes the S &P, the Russell 2000, cyclical stocks, commodity producers, commodities themselves, all of it. So it's a really simple thing. You don't have to do a lot. You can be the moron on the left of the bell curve or the genius on the right. Just don't be in the middle of the bell curve. Don't be the midwit. just keep it simple stupid technology going up the world is getting more digital when we look at the bitcoin chart versus the S &P it's even more stark since 2013 so we're not even cherry picking the really really early dates but it's been outperforming at 88 percent a year It's crushed it.

37:52Now, considering it is also highly correlated to liquidity, it's all the same cycle. Then this is the horse you back. You back the fastest horse, which is why my bets lie mainly in crypto. Because they're all the same bet. Risk-adjusted returns in crypto are much better than anything else. But you have higher volatility. You may not want the higher volatility. You'll still capture returns. But this is where you get the excess returns. So that's the power of a secular trend. Now let's put them into the everything code. Again, I talked about the fact that the ISM is a repeating cycle since 2008 because of the debt refi cycle.

38:40So future ISM looks like past ISM inverted. So it suggests that we keep going into 2025, the end of 2025, which I've shown you in a number of different formats. And with that goes liquidity. I showed charts earlier how liquidity and ISM all go hand in hand. There's the chart, global liquidity and the NASDAQ just keeps going up. What a beautiful chart. That's the trend we're trading here. It's easy. Same with Bitcoin. The reason the Bitcoin correlation is actually lower than the NASDAQ is because of these super spikes on the upside, because it's so skewed to the right tail, which is amazing. So now when we put this all together, we can actually forecast using a number of proprietary things we use at GMI out into the future.

39:33Please do not expect this to be a crystal ball. Do not expect these exact targets. It's directionally going to give you an idea of what the next two years look like. It gives you that target that we talked about before of about 21 ,500 in the NASDAQ by May or June of next year. It kind of looks like it kind of holds a bit after that. Maybe there's a correction. Maybe not. Maybe it dislocates a bit. As you've seen, there's plenty of parts on the chart where liquidity can correct a bit, but the chart keeps going. That's 2015, for example. that was typical then. But by the end, it says the NASDAQ would get to about 27 ,000, which is exactly where that log chart showed it as well.

40:17So I like it when certain things come together. So basically, all you need to take from this is there's plenty of upside to come. Of course, there'll be ups and downs. But in end of 2025, you'll look back and you'll have come a long way. and that is a great trade. With Bitcoin, it gets even more interesting. You see, that gives us a kind of extraordinary set of numbers, which make me think that these are overstating it. So I'm just going to assume that we'd halve these. Maybe they're right. I don't know. We'll have to see. The everything code is new. Yes, it's worked in the past, but who knows because it gives us crazy numbers like 218 ,000 by May that's post halving post ETF it would give you a target of half a million bucks by 2026 which is in line with the log trend so it's possible it doesn't feel like the most probable outcome feels a bit ludicrous to me but anyway directionally half the numbers assume Raoul is a total moron which certainly my wife would do, then you still get great numbers.

41:32So it's all to play for. And that makes me interested. Now, Bitcoin's actually not the horse I'm going to back in this race. I'll come on to that in a sec. Remember, that target is the same as this log chart. The NASDAQ log chart gave the same as the Everything Co target. There's a level of consistency that I think is interesting. And it gives me comfort to suggest that we're likely to see something similar. Okay, let's talk crypto. Takes a slow tea. Crypto is the horse I back the most. It's the fastest horse in the race, best risk adjusted returns, high correlations to this global liquidity index, which is everything code.

42:18so we know how the asset price behaves, which gives us a competitive advantage when we use our proprietary frameworks. Bitcoin is just a macro asset. All of the noise you see from the Financial Times, all the newspapers, all the media, to the noise on Twitter, to the naysayers, oh my God, this is magic internet money, this is magic beans, they're all wrong. They're all wrong. Bitcoin is a macro asset, like everything else, works from the same thing. Liquidity, business cycles, secular trend. Global M2, fabulous correlation, Bitcoin. I've been using this all the time. It helped us catch the low in November last year.

43:05It'll keep going, as we showed earlier, anyway. So this cycle should keep extending, and we'll get amazing rates of return, because the year-on-year rate of growth starts exploding if you look at that left-hand scale. We can also look at why I choose crypto versus the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq is such a damn good bet, why would I not choose that? Well, because Bitcoin year-on-year versus the... Sorry, Bitcoin divided by the Nasdaq year-on-year also follows M2. So when liquidity conditions are rising, crypto outperforms tech stocks. And that's because of the structure and incentive systems built into a tokenized ecosystem, where you're owning part of the underlying network and you get paid for the adoption of the network.

43:55Look, some equities can look like Bitcoin. We've seen NVIDIA, for example, see network adoption at scale, and it ends up looking a lot like Bitcoin. But the index as a whole, it will always underperform. So that's why I'm so heavily weighted in the crypto space. Beautiful chart here, FedNet liquidity and Ethereum. Bitcoin has actually outperformed FedNet liquidity. The beach ball underwater. Why? Because of the narrative around the ETF. Also, in macro crypto spring, Bitcoin always outperforms, much like in macro spring, treasuries tend to outperform credit. Later, when we move to macro summer, alts, ETH first, Solana, others will start to massively outperform Bitcoin, much like junk bonds outperform treasuries.

44:55so ETH is just doing what it's supposed to be doing but it's not giving us the big surprise I think that surprise comes the moment the ETF is out in Bitcoin and people will focus on the ETH ETF and it'll bring the ETH ecosystem alive it's this year it's been a story of Solana which I've been along all year and Bitcoin that barbell has been the best trade in the world or in fact just Stoning Salah has been the best trade in the world, bar none. But ETH, it'll play catch up. It'll do well. Here's the ETH chart versus Bitcoin back in the 2014 to 16 phase. Going in to remember what I've said, I think this is a repeat, a similarity repeat of the 2016-17 cycle.

45:41It's at this point that you had the sideways consolidation, the breakout, the next consolidation, and then it goes batshit crazy. We're into this peak phase. I think we go a bit further, and then we'll correct. Whether it's sideways or a sharper correction, who the hell knows, doesn't matter. Just don't use leverage, stay in the trade. And if you get some cash, buy into the next set of weaknesses. Normally, these corrections are like 30%, these bigger corrections, so expect something like that. It shouldn't freak you out. You should be expecting it. If you've got cash, you should add. it'll be your last chance to add a decent levels because then things go bananas.

46:24Also, Bitcoin, I think most of you realize, is just a beautiful cycle. The purple shaded of the Bitcoin bear cycles, they're one year. That's all they are, one year cycle. Yeah, they crush you, but they're one year. And then the rest of it just recovers. So as you can see, I think this cycle we're in now looks more like that 2015, 16, 17 than it did 19, 20, 21. 19 came out of the gates really, really fast, then corrected. Then we had COVID, which we were not going to repeat. I know many people are expecting, oh, we're going to get a 50 % collapse and you buy that one. It's not going to happen.

47:03Of course, you'll get corrections. I think they're most likely more sideways, give or take a 20 % to 30 % range. as that's the world we live in in crypto. But we should keep going into the end of 2025 if we're just repeating the same old cycle, which I think we are because the Bitcoin halving cycle is the same as the election cycle, is the same as the everything code, debt, global debt, refi cycle. They're all the same thing. So I don't see any reason why it won't play out that way. And that's what I'm expecting. So good times lay ahead. Some people don't use the straight linear log regression they use a curved version log regression bands i don't really like these i think people use them because they explain the early price action because it was so steep it kind of screws up log regression charts which is why i start mine in 2013 i think like the nasdaq it'll stay within its log regression this would be the less optimistic version and that would tell us that somewhere, probably if we extended that to the end of 2025, we'll get to 100 ,000 in Bitcoin.

48:09So that would be the least bullish case. The other bullish case would be the straightforward regression that can get you to a million dollars. The everything co gets you a half a million or something in the middle, call it 250, something like that, which is the discounting Ralph's everything co by 50 % because he's a moron phase, something like that. Again, don't get caught up on that. Just realize it lies ahead. But we're also, as liquidity picks up, this chart is the alt season. It's the percentage of assets outperforming Bitcoin over a period. Guess what? It looks just like the liquidity charts.

48:46As liquidity rises, alts eventually start to massively outperform. We're in early altcoin season and we're seeing signs of that everywhere. DeFi has done really well. That was like DeFi was the early cycle last time around, too. There's been a breakout in Solana. That's an alt. That's done really well. But we're not yet at 50%. Once we start to get to 50 % is when things get crazy and everything goes up. That lies ahead, too. I have an asset management firm, Exponential Age Asset Management, and we have a digital asset fund of hedge funds. So we invest in digital asset hedge funds, the best in the world, to try and capture the alpha of stuff like alt season.

49:30It's hard to find the right coins. It's not an easy thing. So we farm it out to the experts and let them do it. And we've been skewing our whole portfolio based on this top-down methodology that we have. There's a lot more to it, but the top-down methodology has meant we're pushing out the risk curve to make sure that we capture the alt season and the outperformance of the overall crypto cycle. And so, you know, I put these things into practice, not only in my own portfolio, but also in my asset management firm as well. These things are really important and they are predictable. The other chart I love to look at is one of the best looking charts in the world.

50:11There's this beautiful wedge that broke, which is altcoins ex-ETH, total market cap. We should go to 2 trillion in this. So we've got a 4X plus out of this. It could go much further. These things can really extend. So again, alts, really interesting, really hard to choose. I'd rather farm it out to haste fund managers. My alts bet has been Solana. I have a scattering of other stuff, but really it's all been Solana to me. I've tried to find the biggest fastest horse in the race and not try to get cute because I find it too hard and you end up fucking it up. And the whole idea of this crypto cycle is do not fuck it up.

50:52You can basically capture most of the returns, most of the returns just by being in Bitcoin, ETH, Solana. And if you need to feed your inner D-gen, 80 % in stuff like that and 20 % or 10 % in the stuff you want to punt. So you can feature in a degen, but you don't screw up the whole trade. Again, don't fuck this up. It's the key mantra for this market. Don't overtrade. Don't use leverage. Don't FOMO, following your friends, looking at a trade you missed out. Just stick with the program. Hold your trade. Add on sell-offs. Anything over 20%. Add into it. And just calmly let it play out. Don't overtrade.

51:34Don't try and pick tops. Buy in. Buy out. You'll miss it. I've seen everybody do it. I've done it myself. Just stick with the program. Keep your cool head. Hold it. Store it on your ledger. Don't let your exchange blow up and take it away from you. Don't do bloody DeFi farming because something else can take your coins away. Your job is to not part with your coins until 2025, particularly towards the end of 2025. That's your one job. So anyway, you've got the brief. Hopefully, you'll remember again, repeating the words, not to fuck this up. Okay, finally, one thing at Global Macro Investor that we talked about three, four months ago, we said we think Q4 is going to be something that is bananas.

52:24As liquidity starts, as the spigots of liquidity start to open, it should cause a kind of dramatic increase in prices. part of that is the seasonality of the S &P 500 here it is it's been a beautiful chart and off we go to the races we should finish the year strong I think we finished the Nasdaq S &P all-time highs so nice finish to the year same with the Nasdaq 93 % correlation with seasonality off we go to the races nothing unusual you'll have a correctional two on route and you'll have some big spurts into the end. Everyone's going to be benchmark tracing at the end of the year. Let them do it.

53:04Just hold it. But what gets interesting is next year, the seasonality remains bananas. Presidential election years are very positive. There's stimulus. And that stimulus helps buy votes. Buying votes allows the stock market to go up as well. They want that to happen. And this is the seasonality going back to 1964. for. Again, you can see you get some volatility on routes. There's not a straight run, but it's a straight run as you can expect in markets. So it should work out pretty well, I think. Bitcoin seasonality is the same. Presidential election years, up only. The reason you've got the sell-off here in March is because this data has 2020 on.

53:50If you took 2020 out, straight up only, but there's only two cycles. So here's three cycles, but it's up only. It's the banana zone. It's when you make a shit ton of money by just sticking with the program. And hopefully I've laid out what the program is, how not to get caught by the next shiny thing, you know, betting on oil going up or something. Yes, there's trades to be done. Do those trades, but don't screw up the big position, the secular trend with the liquidity trend, the everything code, the super massive the black hole that is crypto. Please don't screw those things up. Now, Coinbase has been a great one as well.

54:28We've been along that for a while, and that's exploding higher. And it's been exactly following the post-crash pattern of the Nasdaq. And that should continue higher too. Again, choppiness, but generally higher into year-end, going into the ETF. Amazon and Coinbase have been great. The Amazon bust when it fell 97 % coming out of the dot-com crash. Coinbase has been following that beautifully, as has ARK and a whole bunch of other things. And Coinbase is starting to wildly outperform and it should continue to do so. Coinbase, I think, is one of the single most superior equity bets in the world because of what we know from the Everything Code where crypto should be going over the next 24 months.

55:13Coinbase is going to be a massive beneficiary. So I think it's a great opportunity. This stuff works. It's certainly worked this year. And I still think it continues to play out into the coming years. It won't be perfect. There'll be times when you're questioning me. There'll be times when I'm questioning myself. And maybe it's right to do so. Things can change. But I'm assuming there don't a lot. And using this exact framework from last year, we nailed in Global Macro Investor and for Real Vision, ProMacro, 660 % in Solana, 96 % in E, 72 % in the exponential age basket, 60 % in semis, NASDAQ 47%.

56:00And you see the cyclical stuff, that lag behind because it lives in present day ISM. They'll all be positive next year. But again, some horses are faster than others. In this section, I'll leave you with this one chart. This is the banana zone on a two-year basis. You might have seen this on Twitter. It's a great fucking chart. This is what happens in the halving year and the year after. Is it going to repeat? Pretty likely to, knowing what we know about the Everything Code, knowing what we know about the log trend, knowing what we know about liquidity in the business cycle, knowing all of those things and the ongoing adoption of crypto and the speed of adoption, it's pretty likely it's going to go somewhere to the top right.

56:49Where it gets to, we'll find out en route. Now, let's look at some technicals to bring it all home. We talked a lot about the banana zone back in October last year when things were correcting. We said, look, October, always the end of a bear phase. Generally, things get bullish, chase into year end. NASDAQ exploded higher through that. And I think it ends the year at all-time highs. As you know, we got forecasts out to 17 ,500 or so for Q2 next year from the Everything Code and from liquidity cycles. Feels about right to me. Let's see how that goes. Semis, same. Beautiful breakout. Banana zone.

57:32We're in the middle of the banana zone. Keeps going. Apple, banana zone. Middle of the banana zone. Keeps going. Tesla. This is the one chart that I think is the big trade. Of all the equity charts, Tesla and Coinbase are the two that I think encapsulate everything. Coinbase encapsulates the whole crypto theme. And Tesla is AI, EV, robotics, network effects, probably AR, and a whole bunch of things within this. And this chart is this step up, consolidate, step up, consolidate. The next step up, if it breaks the uptrend, that is a massive inverse head and shoulders, and the whole thing should explode higher.

58:26I think this thing can 5x from here, maybe even more. And that for a company of this size is extraordinary. And that's really what I think is coming. So Tesla lives in two worlds. It lives in the world of the Russell 2000, cyclical car company. Sales are sluggish, inventories are stacking up, prices are being cut. But it also lives in tech land. where AI is growing exponentially, robotics, EV, all of the themes of the exponential age. So right now, they're fighting each other, which has kept Tesla down. I mean, yes, it's outperformed. I mean, it's done very well. I mean, it's up 200 % this year or whatever.

59:12But the real move comes next year when the business cycle turns higher, car sales go up, inventory's full, and the exponential age really kicks in, then Tesla's kind of unbeatable as a stock that represents all of it. So I really have my eye on Tesla. ARK. ARK is the forward-looking part of growth. It, like Coinbase, has been borrowing for a while. It should do very well over the next few years. So I'm very bullish on ARK and many of the companies that Cathie owns. I think their bet is the right bet. Yes, it took a beating, but that's all of growth tech did. And yes, it will recover. And so this theme will remain strong in the years going ahead.

1:00:05It had its kind of terrible moment. And I think going forwards, it's a great place to find returns. Coinbase, similar basing pattern, it's broken out. It's leading the way. I think this goes to new all-time highs and well beyond. So again, very bullish. Ethereum, we broke the downward sloping wedge. We broke the kind of flat top. We're retesting it. Currently, as we speak, this is Monday, 11th of December. This is 10 days before you get this. It should, I think, consolidate, then go higher and keep going. So I thought it might have got further this year, finished the year at 3 ,000 or so. I doubt it gets there, but who the hell knows, right?

1:00:47Crypto, it could be 50 % in four days. So I don't know. The correction that was needed because the markets have been quite strong is underway right now as we speak. Let's say maybe by the time you get this, crypto is back at highs, or maybe it's still correcting. We'll see. Again, I don't really trade the short term. I don't really give a shit. what I'm interested in is capturing the long-term trend. The long-term trend of ETH, beautiful wedge pattern, broke out. New all-time highs lay ahead. I think, you know, I've always thought it was about 15 ,000. Yes, I thought we were going to have this super spike into the last peak.

1:01:27We didn't get it. So, you know, I bought call options, if you remember, that you all endlessly berate me over. But I do think we get to those targets over time. So I still remain wildly bullish over ETH. I think ETH is a super high quality asset. I have no idea how ETH is going to deal with reduced supply with a massive amount being staked and an ETF coming. Where the hell are you going to find the ETH? The more activity, the more it gets burnt. It's going to get very, very squeezy in ETH. So I think, again, there's a potential, a 20 % chance that ETH, like Bitcoin kind of wildly surprises us that we're a little bit scarred from the last cycle.

1:02:13And what we get is a repeat of that 2017 bananas cycle. Let's see, it's not my base case. There's no point betting on the bananas case. It's nice if we get it. If not, we'll do just fine. Thank you very much. But ETH has been underperforming Bitcoin. But here we are. This is a weekly demarked chart showing the nine signals. And we're basing, I think, on what is a larger wedge pattern. And what we should see is a bounce from here and a break to the high. So I think ETH outperforms Bitcoin. And that gets driven because of the Bitcoin ETF coming out. Everyone focusing on ETH. The ETH ETF money piles in.

1:02:58Remember, ETH is like half the size of Bitcoin. So if you move the billion dollars that went in to speculate on the Bitcoin ETF, move that same billion into ETH, it'll move it twice as much or more because of the staking issue and how much is staked and also the reduced supply. So you get outsized effects as this money sloshes through the risk curve. So I think that's coming. It's very, very close. This is driven by the business cycle as well. The business cycle dynamics drive this cross. And as liquidity rises above zero, we start to see this in the global liquidity. So it's very close to happening.

1:03:36So you should have your eyes peeled for it. Again, it's not cool about what chain's better than what. ETH just has a broader, deeper network, Metcalfe's law of debt model than Bitcoin does, because there's more users of the network in multiple different ways, the applications there. Bitcoin's got better with the ordinals and other stuff coming, but it's still not there yet. So a lot of it is just the store of value and the sheer number of people and the size of the positions taken in Bitcoin. ETH is a whole different beast. So again, don't compare the two. Don't go down that red herring. Great asset.

1:04:12Bitcoin always, ETH should always outperform in a liquidity-driven bull market. We're getting to the point where you should be thinking about switching.

1:04:24and that's what we did with soul versus eth you can tell i'm now not married to a trade idea because i love eth but i bought soul because of this chart the breakout of the trend the breakout of the trend you know i was buying this um soul for a while and then just switch most of my eth and caught most of this explosive move i mean it's been a hell of a fucking trend and it looks like it's just going to continue. Sol should be the darling of this cycle. Sure, there will be other stuff. Your promote my bags token, I'm sure they'll do brilliantly and you're a genius for picking them. I'm not a genius for picking Sol, I just looked at the thing with the biggest network activity that I could find that had a false narrative to it.

1:05:09But your insert my bags, I'm sure they'll do well, please don't show me them. I just don't trade stuff. I am a very concentrated macro risk taker so insert your bags your shill won't work but look i do wish you well it's not that i have a better idea you will find stuff that will wildly outperform me and i wish you luck with that i'm just not an expert enough to do it so your bags will probably do tens better than i am so don't start giving me the my bags are better than salt i don't care um sold bitcoin another beautiful breakout all at the same time all part of this coming a fire dancer the narrative the NFT, pressed NFTs, just Solana to me was the right bet for the cycle for me.

1:05:56So there we have it. I've given you what I would say is Raoul's masterclass in macro and crypto. I've given you everything that you need to understand why we're here, where the fuck we're going, what are the opportunities, why those are the opportunities. I've given you the next two layers for you to understand how I think of these things. I'm really trying to help you build the framework of understanding so you can not fuck this up, whether it's the crypto cycle, the technology cycle, or both. This is like a gift of an opportunity. I think it's the biggest and best macro trend I've ever been given.

1:06:39It started a while ago, but I think the mass adoption phase of all of this, both crypto and this technology, lies in this phase. There is a chance that we get a wild-arse bubble out of this as narrative gets well ahead of the reality and then eventually catches up. But by 2030, the world that we live in today will be unforecastable. I won't be able to do this analysis. This won't work. A world populated with productive units of AI and robots that create infinite population. Remember, GDP growth equals population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth. In a world of infinite population growth, AI and robots act like humans.

1:07:37And a lowering of the base cost of electricity, driven by EV, nuclear and other stuff, gives us unparalleled, unfathomable economic outcomes like GDP doubling in a year or more. Things we've never seen before suddenly become possible. What does it mean for society? What does it mean for you and me? What does it mean for your kids? The exponential age is a gift of an opportunity to invest I feel blessed to be at this most momentous point in history With the fastest, biggest pace of technological change And societal change humanity's ever gone through Yes, it will scare the shit out of all of us Yes, we will feel left behind but yes there is opportunity and I think the other side of it I'm more optimistic than pessimistic even if the robots are our masters they're probably nice to us we're not bad people after all certainly you guys aren't if you are interested in the exponential age and really understanding it then I have a research service which is called the exponentialist the exponentialist with David Mattin, who also writes for me at Global Macro Investor, where we cover the technology.

1:08:59This is a service for those people who are super curious about this. They want to invest in it. It's not a trading service. It's kind of a set it and forget it portfolio. With business cycle analysis around technology, really what it's about is David's long-form essays, my essays, and discussions about discovering and going down that journey of the exponential age. so you can make sense of it for yourself, for your kids, for your businesses, what it means for you. Because we are still humans in this journey. And at times like this, we as humans need to understand that society is going to change.

1:09:41This election is going to be very hard for people because of the rise of AI. So don't lose your shit out there. Stick to the focus. the AI the the election is not going to feel good but the markets will make you feel a lot better anyway I hope that helps that just leaves me to wish you Merry Christmas whatever holiday you celebrate and here's to a fucking great 2024 take care thank you and don't forget subscribe to the channel so you get the next updates as soon as they come out. Have a great one. Thanks.