The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead ft. Julien Bittel from Global Macro Investor

26:54We've seen play out time and time again. And I've highlighted what one, two, three, four other times that this has happened. But if you extend this chart out, this is a pattern I've seen many, many times. Because don't forget, this survey goes all the way back to the 1950s. So it's just history repeating itself. It rallies off the lows, comes a little lower, and then the big move in the business cycle happens. And now we've seen in January, we saw some new orders rise to 55.1, which is the highest reading since May of 2022. And what you could have also looked at, the chart is less pronounced now that we've actually have the results for January ISM.

27:30But had you been looking at this survey prior to the release, so here I've just composited Dallas, Philly, Empire, Chicago, and the others, and then taken a Z score or the average, it was moving higher. And so you could have said, okay, well, I think as a result of that, in real time because I have all composite regional fed surveys that the ISM should come in higher. And then if we start to do this business cycle dominoes thing and look out into the future, with ISM new orders finally back into expansion territory, this is good news for the headline ISM number because new orders typically lead by around a month.

28:09Pop the hood as well. Now we have nine industries reporting growth. Is it super strong? No, but you also don't want these things to be super strong because if they're super strong, it means the business cycle is overheating. So this is like, you know, Goldilocks level. The other thing I'm going to say about this is back in January of 2023, if some of you will have attended, I don't know if it was January or February, but Raoul and I and Andreas, we did our thing in New York and I of course came in virtually, but this is a chart that I showed. We fell to zero. So zero industries reporting growth.

28:40And my take based on lead indicators and liquidity is I had liquidity and the business cycle positive. And also I was looking at all these charts and these charts are contrarian indicators of the lows. And also you can't really do a whole lot worse than zero. Can you, you're at zero, can't go negative. So this coupled with our larger framework was why we were scoring road from liquidity positive, but really, I mean, and I say this like, I don't know, humbly, I mean, we were really, I think, scanning everyone, the only people that were scoring that positively. And it's really about that combination of leads plus extreme readings like that.

29:13And you're just like, this is the time to shift. And that's when we wrote our article that the turn is near in November of that year of 20... What was it? 2022? The right year? Yeah, I think so. November 2022. So in GMI. And then we come out now. So now we're coming out. So we were at one month. Now we're at three months, right? So in terms of new orders to inventory, so the business cycle dominoes. very good print. So new orders to relative inventories in January, new orders are outpacing. So I think this is a fabulous chart. Actually, it's a little bit volatile, but it gives you a sense of the overall direction.

29:48And it works as well if you back it out even further. I just capped it in 1985 because prior to 1985, the ISM swings could be pretty crazy and just makes the chart look a bit messy. And then you go out even further and you come to our GMI Financial conditions index, right, which is advanced by nine months. And so yes, financial conditions have tightened a bit recently. But when you zoom out and you look at the broader macro picture, specifically how much financial conditions have eased in aggregate since Q4 of 2022, it paints a much clearer story of what's to come. And so my view is after this brief hiccup where economic surprises may come in a little weaker over the next one to two months, as a result of the recent rise in the dollar and bond yields finally taking its toll, will see strong support forming for the manufacturing cycle to really kick into gear later in the year.

30:37I mean, well, this year, even over the next coming months, right? And remember too, that the ISM in January only just moved above 50. And we're still nowhere near late cycle levels that would typically trigger a macro regime shift into macro fall. So the danger zone, which I've highlighted there, which is across above the 80th percentile, meaning there's still plenty of runway left for the business cycle to build momentum before the usual late cycle checklist or my usual late cycle checklist, which I'm happy to go over at some point, but we'll start to flash yellow and eventually red, right? Which would be macro winter.

31:16And what we know, as we've discussed now many times, the major moves in crypto, although I know it doesn't feel like it this week, but the major moves, you know, zooming out happen when the business label starts gaining real momentum, particularly when the ISM pushes above 50 and continues to climb towards its late cycle peak. So this is where we are. And, you know, if you look at Bitcoin relative to the ISM, we're basically pricing in current ISM numbers, but nothing forward looking, which is what I just highlighted for you. So basically we're just trading current ISM. It's the same thing with cyclical equities.

31:52So here we're looking at industrials, materials, financial, small caps, right? Current ISM, but nothing forward looking. Same thing with commodities, you know, and carbon too, right? Carbon finally showing some signs of life. And I could show you 30 other charts, but, you know, I didn't want to be here for four hours showing you all the relationships, but you know, it's the same thing, right? Cyclical risk is a function of the business cycle. Okay. And then once the ISM continues its slow grind higher to close the gap with our GMI financial conditions index, that's when we'd expect alt season to really kick off.

32:25And by alt season, we mean the real deal, right? When alts start to seriously gain market share versus Bitcoin like we saw in 2020 and 2021. Now, is it a straight line? No, absolutely not. But again, it's about getting the trend, the direction of travel correct. Another major tailwind, and then we're going to shift to inflation after a few extra charts here, is another major tailwind, I believe, for a cyclical recovery in the global manufacturing cycle is the complete and utter collapse in Chinese bond yields. And I will have, you guys will have seen the comments I put around, put out on this, both on X and I included in an MIT report.

33:05I haven't agreed with a single take on this, but my take is just that this is a massive easing of financial conditions from the east. And what this then subsequently allows is once the dollar moves a little bit lower, the PBOC can begin to ease again, right? And they have the cover to do so because there's no risk of the economy overheating because the economy is still extremely weak. And they can do it in a big way if you look at this chart. Finally, with 75 % of central banks currently in easing mode, the Bank of England just cut again today. The setup, you know, I feel looks extremely positive for the business cycle this year looking out.

33:43And this will drive lead indicators higher relative to coincident economic indicators. So this is the business cycle dominoes. So it makes total sense given how the leads and lags of the business cycle tend to play out. So overall, we see plenty of reasons to be optimistic on growth for 2025. So inflation, let's do this. So with a cyclical recovery in the business cycle finally now coming into focus, I'd say, inflation is something that we now need to think about. That said, unlike many out there who are predicting a rapid reacceleration inflation, we're sticking with our base case for 2025, which we laid out back in Q4.

34:28The idea is this, we'll see inflation, but it will be driven by a recovery in cyclical demand. And this means it'll impact certain areas of CPI while leaving others largely untouched. So let me explain that. For starters, it's pretty clear looking at the regional Fed surveys that price pressures are starting to tick higher, something we've been highlighting over recent months. And, you know, it's particularly evident when you look at the Dow or the Empire Manufacturing Survey. So you're looking at prices paid. Well, it's not prices paid. It's all of them. It's prices paid, prices received, and whatever the other one is, we're on a blank.

35:05But, you know, it's those all put together. Oh, and supply and delivery times. It's all those put together. And you can clearly see the trend is higher, volatile, but the trend is higher. Another way you can see that is if you look at the ISM non-manufacturing survey, right? So basing slowly, right? And maybe a floor for how much further inflation can fall. But on the other hand, inflation typically moves in stages. And the usual flow, which I've discussed many times here, which just helps me compartmentalize the cycle. And it's the equivalent of business cycle dominoes. But for inflation, it's commodity inflation, it's early cycle, which leads to good inflation, which is mid-cycle, which leads to services inflation late in the cycle.

35:51And generally, the EMPI numbers are the first to move. So when you look at emerging markets, the link between PPI numbers and commodity prices is pretty clear. And you can see that on the chart just without doing any word. But these economies are often net exporters of commodities. So when commodity prices rise, the cost of production in these countries follows suit, right? And as raw material costs climb, the prices of goods that rely on these materials, be it industrial metals, energy, so on, also rise, which then shows up in their PPI numbers. So essentially, these countries feel the price pressure sooner just because they're directly tied to the global commodity cycle.

36:33So this makes EMPPI numbers an early indicator of broader inflation. So you can see that this is already ticking higher. Now, the rise in commodity prices is also starting to spill over into core goods inflation. It's still early days, but as commodity prices push higher this year, driven again by a cyclical recovery in the business cycle, one of the first places that we'll start to see inflation show up is in goods prices. And goods prices lead headline CPI by around four months. However, for now, if we look at the base effect, it remains relatively muted. And that's likely to change once commodities start to pick up.

37:21But for now, if we look at what's happened over the recent weeks, oil is still coming down. And that makes me feel like goods inflation can remain relatively muted for now until the ISM, let's say, pushes above 55 or so. And I think that this is the really key point here when we're talking about overall headline inflation numbers. For the headline number to move higher, we'll need to see goods move, you know, spike significantly, especially since goods inflation is only 18 % of total headline CPI. food is another area we need to watch this year because fertilizer prices again a function of the business cycle have started to rise and they leave food prices by around eight months however once again food is only 13 percent of total headline cpi it matters sure but there's a major offset which i'm about to show you now okay here we go business cycle dominoes so the The caboose of the business cycle train is always core services, which lags the business cycle.

38:27And here, when I talk about the business cycle, I'm talking about the ISM by around 15 months and makes up a massive 62 % of total headline CPI on its own. It's incredibly slow moving. And while most old school economists like to refer to services inflation as sticky, meaning it stays elevated for long periods of time before it starts to come down, that's not really what's going on here. It's simply so far behind in the cycle that it takes time for the slowdown in inflationary pressures to hit services inflation, which, as I mentioned before, is largely a function of unit wage costs. And speaking of wages, right, there's still zero signs that wages are going to be picking up just yet.

39:09Our GMI wage growth tracker did a fantastic job last year at cutting through the noise, especially when you had most macro strategists out there talking about a rise based on small business confidence or wages accelerating. We, of course, immediately shut that down in these reports based on quite a few of these indicators. And then when you look at the NFIB survey on compensation changes over the past three to six months, wages continue to collapse. But then I can already hear, and I included this in the report, someone would say, yeah, yeah, but Julian compensation plans are leading and therefore aren't we going higher here?

39:46And I'm like, it's like, no, I'm just not buying that right here largely because of our league indicators. And the one I showed you earlier, the GMI wage group tracker is, of course, it's not the only one we have. But to me, this is already the beginning of the fourth head fake. We had the first one, second one. The third one, by the way, was the one when everyone was talking about wages re-accelerating on the basis that compensation plans for small businesses were heading higher. And again, we were focused on the leads and we said, no, it's not quite the right time. And that's the point. It's just not the right.

40:18I've explained this in detail in the works, but it's just not the right environment for a material and sustainable reacceleration and wage growth. It comes, it will come, but it comes typically much later in the cycle. Now, coming back to core services inflation, shelter inflation is the largest subcomponents of core services. So it makes up 37 % of total CPI and accounts for around 60 % of that core services number. So it's a really, really big chunk. What we also know about shelter inflation is that it typically lags home prices by around 17 months, meaning that for 37 % of total CPI, it's pretty much going to be one-way traffic for all of 2025.

41:01And we see a similar picture where we look at the Cleveland Fed new tenant rent index, which absolutely nosedived in Q4. The point being, and why this all matters, is I believe we'll see core services decline for most of 2025, which will drag the core CPI number lower as well. And this will give the Fed the cover that they need to lower interest rates further. And remember that the Fed is focused on the most lagging elements of inflation, which is why they're almost always late to hike. They're always late to cut. And they continue cutting well into the initial rebound of inflation, where inflation is essentially a byproduct of stronger growth driven by a cyclical recovery in the business cycle.

41:45And another thing to note here is the base effect is also quite favorable over the next one to two months. So the base effect is that dotted line, so sharply lower. And base effects aren't everything, and they're never a guarantee, which is why I don't use them to forecast the quadrants. I mean, I use them as like an assistance if I need them, which can be helpful. But, you know, if you think back to, as I say, Q1 of 2023, you know, the main people that do that because the base effect was still negative, we're expecting growth to continue lower. And so it's difficult. But the point being is that it helps when dealing with probabilities, but there's no certainty.

42:26But just to highlight that the base effect's quite negative. A few final points on inflation that we're going to skip onto the next section. You know, firstly, if we exclude shelter from headline CPI, so the most lagging stuff, which, by the way, is still propping up the headline number, CPI is already below the long-run average of 2.4%. Secondly, there's still no signs of CPI breath digging higher for the time being. So with respect to policymakers and higher interest rates, I've discussed this before, the time to worry is when inflation breadth starts to broaden out. So we see a huge, a larger number of the components accelerating.

43:03So above that average line. And this is typically a macro signature of macro fall, but not of macro spring or summer. Thirdly, the Fed have given themselves a huge range to maneuver this year. So I think as long as we don't see a significant reacceleration in core PCE and a move beyond the high estimate of 3.2 % for 2025, I don't really think rising inflationary pressures will be a roadblock for the Fed to ease rates further this year, especially if we see weaker economic surprises over the next one to two months based on what we've discussed earlier, be it the dollar and rates and that being leading two months versus surprises.

43:50However, and here's the big picture, based on, again, zooming out, the significant easing of financial conditions since Q4 of 2022, I do expect us to see some inflationary pressures building later this year. You know, there might be some short pullbacks in the second derivative of CPI, like we saw last year, which nudged us back into macro spring, where the second derivative moved lower, driven by patches of tightening in financial conditions, which you can clearly see on the chart, which I had illustrated at the time. Yet once the white line crosses above zero, it indicates that CPI numbers are going to begin to rise again.

44:25But considering everything I've just outlined, along with the various dynamics of inflation, all the moving parts, I'd say this is becoming – I would say this will become a more meaningful story in the second half of this year than for right now. Either way, it's definitely something that we'll be tracking and keeping an eye on both in the video updates and the written reports, right? So we'll just track this month by month. But for now, based on what I've just outlined with shelter, I think this is a story for later in the year. But at the end of the day, a rising second derivative in our inflation score coupled with a modest rise in our composite growth score for December keeps us in macro summer for now.

45:09And I believe that this is precisely what classic cyclical equity recovery plays are starting to pick up on. So I had mentioned a few earlier, industrials, materials, energies, financials, small caps, that are starting to react to this. And all of these styles and sectors have outperformed the S &P 500 year to date. And historically, these styles and sectors tend to be the biggest beneficiaries during periods of macro summer when the business cycle is improving because now earnings are starting to improve. So it won't be a straight line, obviously, but macro summer is typically a favorable environment for risk-taking.

45:48So next section. In macro summer, dips are for buying. So I updated all these charts from when I released the original written report. And what we saw at the time was bullish sentiment collapse when looking at the AAII survey. It's since recovered, but by no means are we extended. So we're not overly bearish. We were. We're not overly bullish either. It's sort of like neutral, which I think fits really well if you look at the CFTC positioning on the S &P 500. It's basically flat, which means that speculators are neutral beta risk, meaning that they're not really taking a view on the direction of markets.

46:33They're pretty much flat. We were slightly short, last week. We've since covered that short. So we're at 0.2%. But the point is, is this is flat. So there is no real view being expressed here, which I think is interesting based on kind of everything. I think nothing changes sentiment like market price. Okay. So the fact that, you know, crypto is a little bit lower or, well, came down a lot lower and then equities re-back, you know, corrected a little bit, which I'll talk about in just a second, I think has people neutral on risk. But if I outline the big picture macro as I've done for you here.

47:04You know, I think it's a word in a positive environment. Now, this chart, again, is one of the ones I included in the report. At the time I released it, I think, what do I have here? January 9th. So the January 9th MIT update, we were at 22%, which if you think about RSI, or sorry, this is 50-day moving average, anything below 30, like the RSI, would be oversold. Okay. So 22%. And since then, equities are still, if we're talking about the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ, they're still up 5 % from that oversold reading. So currently, we're at 50%. But again, 50 % looks exactly like speculative positioning and exactly like the AAII survey.

47:47We're basically neutral. So there's no screaming buy signal here. I mean, there was, as I say, on the 9th, right, if we're talking about equities. But there's also no overbought signals in place. So I just wanted to outline that. But then if we zoom out, right, you know, our GMI Bitcoin cycle top finder is just still nowhere near signaling a peak in Bitcoin prices and nor do some of our other indicators. You know, so here's, you know, core risk indicator, which is basically just a series of oscillators grouped together and ranked in the Z score. Again, I always make fun of this name. Who names these things?

48:22Me. Our Bitcoin valuation model. Again, here, it's just a percentile model with a bunch of factors. And from a quantitative perspective, it's not the cross above the 90th percentile that gets you, forces you risk off, right? It's actually the cross above the 90th and then something like a cross below the 85th percentile on that will then flash red, but, you know, just not there. And then returning to this analog, I still believe it makes a lot of contextual sense for this year. You know, expect frequent pullbacks, some of which could even last a couple of months if you look at the 2017 cycle, because this actually is the 2017 cycle just shifted by a couple of weeks.

49:00But this is the roadmap that I think, you know, Raoul and I have in our heads for this year. Choppy at times, yet ultimately a slow grind higher. And this doesn't only apply to Bitcoin, it applies to risk assets more broadly. And so here's the 2017 cycle. So we're a winder of what we did back then, which mirrors exactly what I just described. Choppy at times, but ultimately it was a slow grind higher. So very much, as I say, the pattern we're anticipating this time around. And then there's this chart. I'd like to bring this back now and again because everyone's tweeting about valuations. And historically, as I said before, valuations within a quantitative framework have only flashed red one, two, three, four, five times since 1980.

49:49So they've only been a problem five times historically. looking back to 1980. And so as the ISM moves higher, earnings, we know, will begin to improve. And this will justify the 2023-2024 valuation premium, which has been baked into equities over the last couple of years. So what that does is that if earnings start to rise, that then pushes that teal line higher, as I've discussed before. The problem within the macro process that I'm running, when those two lines intersect or they cross each other, that my valuations component flashes red. We're not there yet. But as earnings start to improve and we justify the valuation premium that's baked in equities here because they are rich, that the teal line will start to blow, grind higher.

50:39And that'll give us more runway for risk assets to rally, I believe, as we progress through the year. So this is probably the most important segment of the entire deck. And I specifically put it together for you guys because I got a lot of questions about this and I also had to make sense of it for myself. And this is the way I've made sense of it. So you'll be familiar with the four-year cycles that we put together. Well, a lot of people have talked about this, right? So you have spring, summer, fall, winter, so the crypto seasons. Now in 2013 and 2017, we had a big run, right? Then if you look at 2021, this was the cycle that, you know, a lot, which caught a lot of people off guard because a lot of people were thinking that we're going to have a redux of the 2013, 2017 cycle.

51:32Instead, it ended up being this truncated cycle. So in Q4 of 2020, I remember being in Geneva and giving a presentation, which I talked about this, giving a presentation at the Four Seasons Hotel titled Dancing on a Volcano. So at the time I was still managing money, but I could see lead indicators were rolling over. I'm going to show you this in a second. And because it was my job to take risk as an investment manager, I had to still dance, but I knew something was coming. And as I say, I'll show you this in a minute. And really what happened is that because of COVID, the base effect, you have to remember that the ISM is a diffusion index, but it behaves like a year-on-year comp.

52:13So the fact that the ISM fell to 41.8 like that means that from a year-on-year comp perspective, all the comps, when you look at all of them, and then it went to 63.8 like this, it just shot back. which meant that the ISM accelerated from 41.8 to 63.8 in basically record time, which shortened the business cycle. And when we look at the last three times, so here we're looking at exactly those three cycles, 2013, 2017, 2021, Bitcoin, and I capped the white line a little earlier because that was actually the peak. So it peaked just a little bit before the ISM. But the point here is that Bitcoin actually did in 85x.

52:58Wow, right? In 2017, it did a 46x. And here we're talking about from the minute the ISM crossed 50 to the late cycle peak in the ISM. And then in the 2021 cycle, it did an 8x. So it's like, all right, well, what gives? Well, what gives? And the reason I had already seen that we were going to get a peak in liquidity is because I was, again, here using base effects. And I could see that in Q1 of 2021, based on the projection in the rise in global liquidity and then the subsequent peak and the deceleration plus, I mean, this was like four standard deviations historically, that liquidity would start to drag.

53:39And look at this. In March of 2021, liquidity peaked and went down in a straight line. Here, we're still negative. And actually, we're starting to base now. So this is not the updated chart. So we're actually a little bit higher than we are. a little bit higher today than we are right here. And then look at this. Guess what else peaked in March of 2021? The business cycle. So the business cycle and liquidity, the two most important drivers of, as I pointed out, crypto, equities, credit, commodities, across the board, risk assets across the board, had peaked and was slowing. And here was another reason why in Q4, of 2020, you could see that the business cycle was about to decelerate.

54:30So here we were at 60.2. This is actually a snapshot from back then. If we had been sitting together in Q4 of 2020, this is the chart that you would have seen in the pack. And it was suggesting that the ISM was about to quite literally fall off a cliff. Whereas today, the ISM is just now moving above 50, and financial conditions suggest that we're going higher. Additionally, liquidity. We're expecting, based on our views around the dollar, also what happens with China, as I mentioned earlier, that global liquidity, global M2, both from a private and public standpoint, will improve as we progress through the year.

55:13Let's also not forget that during the last Trump cycle, there was that air pocket in January, something we've discussed where crypto fell like 27 % in seven days. And then it just went on to 23X. I think I said crypto, Bitcoin, went on to 23X over the course of that year. Now, I'm not telling you that Bitcoin is going to 23X. What I'm telling you is that if we're right about the backdrop in this environment of weaker dollar, rising liquidity, ISM moving higher, right? Well, at the same time, Fed's backward looking. So, they're focused on core inflation instead of commodity inflation. And they're also not focused on the ISM.

55:49They're focused on labor market indicators, which cycle by four to five months. This is a good environment for risk-taking. So, of course, I have to show this chart. I think taking all of this work into consideration, we believe 2025 is going to be a good environment for risk assets and that we're still in the early stages of the banana zones. You're going to look at this past week, how can it be the banana zone? Look at this chart. I mean, if you zoom in, you can see that right around now, we always get these pullbacks and the banana zone is never a straight line. And at times it's going to feel like the end of the world.

56:26But the banana zone officially kicked off last year on the breakout of Global M2, which we had been showing you at the time. Now, I'm going to echo what I said in the monthly report. And Raoul and I have said this many times, 20 % to 30 % corrections are the norm here. This is a 70 vol asset. Expect them, embrace them. Well, you don't have to embrace them, but expect them. And if you're in a position to add on dips, do so. That's what I did on Monday. Now, as I said, do we retest the low? That happens. Okay. So I added to my core convictions. If we go lower, but I didn't deploy all of my cash, right that's that's you don't do that well if you got really big tonas you can do that but i've got you know medium-sized corners but so i deployed a little bit not all of it so if we come back to the low i'll add because of this framework right because of where i believe we are on the business cycle so you know i hope that this video update has been as always helpful for some of you in in thinking about this week and thinking about where we're heading this year um you know it gives you an idea of what we're thinking in terms of growth, inflation, liquidity, the Fed, and kind of how that all plays out.

57:37And why, and also just illustrating some of the market dynamics and illustrating why it is that we maintain our bullish stance, you know, for the year. Now, you know, rest assured that Raul and I revisit this data. I mean, whenever it's coming out, we're looking at it, right? So we're going to be constantly reassessing our view of things as we progress through the year in these video updates and in the written reports. That's what we're doing. I said this in the roundtable as well. Perfection isn't the aim here. It's consistency. It's coming back to the same set of indicators month in and month out saying, okay, where are we?

58:18What's changed? and and then it really something i got a lot of uh at the crypto gathering was this this is a kind of framework which which helps people sleep at night and that's this i put this framework together for me and the thing is is that i mean if i wasn't writing this and doing this for you i'd be doing it for me on a monthly basis anyway and so writing and talking about it is helpful right because i'm actually i've never really been a writer i've just been an investor but then it's focused me to flush out some of my thoughts. And what I realized is that when I originally joined Rao and I had to make sense of crypto within a macro framework, I had to really simplify things for me to make sense of it.

58:57And this is what I feel like we've done here. So again, we'll assess this as we go through the year. I say this all the time that this is MIT. So as the data changes, so too will our views. So anyway, look, good luck out there. Take care. No FOMO, no leverage. And see you all next time for the next monthly MIT video update. Take care. Bye. So listen, you can see the quality of work that Julian does and why I'm immensely proud to work with him, Global Macro Investor, and then within Real Vision Pro and also within the macro investing tool itself. This kind of framework will literally change your life.

59:43And I urge you to get a framework to make you a better investor. Come across to Real Vision if you haven't, or just sign up for the macro investing tool if you're at Real Vision, or it's also embedded within Real Vision Plus. I think you will find it incredible. All right, see you next time. Consensus Hong Kong 2025 is where the global crypto community converges to shape the next era of Web3. From February 18th through the 20th, Hong Kong becomes the meeting point for leaders across finance, technology, and digital assets. This isn't just a conference. It's where deals are made, partnerships are forged, and new opportunities emerge.

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