“This Time IS Different for Crypto”

25:37Raoul Pal:Yeah, it was hard for people because Because anybody using any leverage at all got stopped out and lost all their capital. I mean, you know, I never use leverage, but I know when it starts creeping in my mind, maybe I just use a small amount, right? How would this fall 50 % from here? That'd be stupid. Sure, I can just double. And it proves it to you. And the issue is, is this game is actually a very simple game. It's like, just don't get taken out of your positions. Absolutely. You're in a secular uptrend. It moves around a lot. just don't lose control of your tokens at the basic level in your high quality assets.

26:13Raoul Pal:And what leverage does is allows you to be taken out of the casino with none of, none of your money. So you just, it's, it's, it's cause you, you want to accelerate these gains that you know are basically there. Cause we do believe that we're early in the adoption curve and you're absolutely right in the, in the attempt to accelerate it. You basically get taken out before you can even see and materialize the growth. We've seen it. so what's your thought on the market going for there's a lot of debate in the market about you know is there four years was there a four-year cycle is it over you know do we all just come back in october november um or how do you see the market right now i think i think it's broadest level we'll dig into other stuff in a bit yeah i i think if you're a believer of the four-year cycle you would have believed that the market would have had a blow-off top in Q4, which it didn't.

27:11But I think what happened on 10.10 changed the investor psychology for a lot of folks, especially Bitcoin whales, who were probably likely to cash out over the next few years. I think a lot of those sales just got pulled forward in Q4 when they saw the market do what it did.

27:29Raoul Pal:And they've been huge sellers of calls as well, haven't they? They have. And it's not just the whales, traditional hedge funds as well. And the miners. The miners. I mean, being long Ibit and short CME futures, very popular trade last year. And I think, you know, there was some hedge fund, traditional hedge fund pain, especially with the large multi-strats in November. And I think there's a large, just an overall risk reduction in the third week. I remember this during Thanksgiving week. And the market was indiscriminately selling off every day the moment it opened. I think that was just hedge fund deleveraging out of the carry trade.

28:07So 1010 change investor psychology lined up with the four-year cycle. But if the four-year cycle is true, that means in 12 months, October of this year is when the market starts materially moving higher. I think that probably gets front run. And anyone who's on the sidelines waiting for that probably starts to try to front run that in uh over the summertime but again we we didn't see that blow off top so from our perspective i don't think there's any reason this to believe that we'll see a you know commensurate 70 80 drawdown um you think we're in a the market doesn't really recover until end of the year no i i think there's a there's a segment of of more traditionalists in the crypto space that believe that.

28:55But they will try to front run the end of the year by likely deploying the summertime. But again, the market, this was not leverage driven, meaning there was not a significant amount of over leverage driving Bitcoin price higher. This was structural in nature with what happened on 1010. I think the environment's changed, especially with some of the products being offered in the credit space today. There is a significant amount of buying still happening in Bitcoin through the ETFs. And I think what's happening right now, current times, it's just more of a short-term reaction to what's happening in the Middle East.

29:37But if you were to tell me a month ago that there would be a heightened conflict and Iran would be bombing all of their neighbors, I would I told you a Bitcoin price would be taking a hit, not coming off its lows and about to hit its 100-day moving average. So I think the market structure has changed considerably. But again, you're going to have the traditional investors that still believe in the four-year cycle, and we'll try to trade around that. But as more long-term capital enters the ETFs and some of the credit vehicles that Michael Saylor is putting out, I think that changes the overall composition of holders.

30:15changes that we don't so we're not we're not of the view that the four-year cycle um is relevant anymore and if you got if you got to be one step further and uh this is how i get myself in trouble good we're looking forward to it yeah i mean the the four words that an investment professional should never say is this time is different so so maybe i'll modify it and say this time seems different and what i mean by that is um is for the first time there are pools of capital that would have never been able to access this asset class that now have access and so if i think about that the fact that you can put a regulated wrapper around something that exists on the blockchain uh it's a game changer and what that means is in sailors proven this uh quite effectively he was i think the number one issuer of convertible bonds back in 2024 i think it was like 25 to 30 percent in the market the fact that he was able to tap insurance pool capital is like that that would have been unheard of i mean we i think we were all cheering once we once the etf was out there and and we're slowly seeing uh morgan sandals launching their own etf we're slowly seeing these wealth management platforms that have trillions of dollars of investable assets for the first time not having to go to the friction of transferring funds in exchange and being able to put on exposure directly to their brokerage accounts I think that's a game changer.

31:38And if I think about, you know, gold as a precedent, I mean, gold was plotting along and doing well. But the moment you put an ETF wrapper around it, it did well initially. But if you look at the 5, 10, 20 year chart of the gold ETF, it's just been up and to the right. And so I think we're in the early stages of the adoption cycle. I think the fact that folks have been creative and the fact that the government has been supportive in launching these regulator wrappers and securities for folks who put on the exposure that they clearly want to put on. You just have to look at the ETF inflows to see that.

32:15And the largest banks, all of our former employers are trying to figure out strategies to either facilitate trading and custody for the institutional clients or as it relates to their higher margins, stickier asset management, private wealth businesses to figure out how digital assets can be a portion of their portfolio. And we play a small part in that on the active management side, given our focus on institutional investors like yourself, given the very strict requirements they have around risk, volatility and return. but we're still early, which is what makes all of this really exciting. And that's the reason why it does seem different this time.

32:51Raoul Pal:Yeah. And for me, when I take those words different this time, because I'm also cautious of using them, you say, what is different? Is it the element of the four year or is it the, I think the dominance is the business cycle and the liquidity cycle. So there has been no time ever that crypto has gone through an extended bear market while the ISM is rising. You've never gone through a bear market while liquidity is rising. So you've got the two biggest macro influences, and we're trying to say, oh, they don't count. It's a mythical Satoshi brought a magical four-year cycle from the gods, delivered it to us, and it's going to work because we're all retards.

33:36Raoul Pal:It just doesn't make sense, right? Because when you look at the year-on-year rate of return of crypto, it's the same as the year-on-year, the same pattern as the year-on-rate of return of the NASDAQ, of the S &P, of oil, all of them, because they're all cyclical assets driven by the business cycle. Absolutely. I mean, obviously, TJ and I are focused on the market microstructure and trying to figure out fund flows and who's buying and selling. And what's happening in the options market? How does that have an impact on the broader market? You're going back to your point about a lot of folks selling calls.

34:11A lot of our LPs on the BTC whale side or folks that are institutions that may have a core Bitcoin position, their primary focus is this thing doesn't generate any yield. So outside of me trading it and incurring taxes by trading in and out of it in order to avoid drawdowns or catch a trend, how can I generate yield on this? And so to your point, these new products as it relates to the microstructure. That's where we spend all of our time. But to your point, you overlay that with a macro piece. I mean, it seems like we're coming out of the aftermath of 10-10. And to TJ's point, if you told me there was a war started off in the Middle East and oil supplies were going to be curtailed, I would expect a 15 % to 20 % swoon of BTC easily.

34:57But we clearly haven't seen that. So the market is selling something else right now.

35:01Raoul Pal:So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Yeah, I agree. So let's talk a bit about that, the structure of these calls. Is that going to give us any fragility, any acceleration points because everybody's a call seller? in terms of the call selling what time horizon are they selling they kind of one to three month um that's where the market is one to three months it's it's largely monthly as i understand it um and how far out the money it depends on what what kind of yield you want um i i i haven't checked uh today but i i everybody wants to sell calls when generally when the markets um found a local bottom historically even in the last cycle um basis trade call of writing very very popular trade when the mark right before the market found the bottom um so that's a signal for us um but but but to yet you will hit a point an inflection point where it doesn't it doesn't um economically make sense to to sell calls because because the yield is so low and i think there's The concentration of strikes as well, and the market moves through the strikes, you get a lot of kind of market maker buying of.

36:31Right, exactly. Because of managing deltas and gammas. Yes, there's going to be some of that. I think there'll still be a market for call overriding. I think the yields will just compress, just like the basis trade is compressed over time, and it'll just be less attractive than some of the other credit strategies that Ed was talking about.

36:53Raoul Pal:And what's the basis trade in futures like versus perps? Because perps is harder for people to do, particularly US. Do you see a large difference between the premiums in perps versus futures? There is a difference. I think it's more around the collateral requirements and some of the operational complexities, trading with an FCM and how much capital you would need to collateralize a short futures position with a regular FCM versus doing it on-chain with a perfect exchange. Much cleaner, much easier. You can actually put on true leverage and lever up a basis trade. It's just a little bit tactically and operationally difficult to do with listed futures.

37:45And also the spreads aren't going to be lower on regulated exchanges for obvious reasons because you could have a Trefi hedge fund, see that funding looks really attractive, and they can basically put that trade on versus I can't imagine any SEC registered hedge fund is going to send a bunch of money to an offshore exchange to play funding for a couple of weeks.

38:05Raoul Pal:And you can see it in who the biggest owners of the ETFs are. They're all the big multi-strat ARB funds or people with large ARB books. Because now it's easy for them. As you say, it's a spot ETF and futures. They've been doing that for decades. Yeah, that's right. Absolutely. There's a couple of other areas where this is all starting to – the complexity of having the ETFs leading to the futures, the perps market, credit markets, options markets. the epicenter of all of that is micro strategies and the complexity of that vehicle or the vehicles there. What are the hedging strategies that come off the buyers of that?

38:50Raoul Pal:Because again, it's a lot of the same players. What is actually, because it seems to be touching all of these areas, right? Well, I think when Bitcoin was going up and the MNAF premium was above two times, you basically get every convertible bond hedge fund and they're basically buying the convert and short the stock. Now that the MNAP premiums come in a bit, obviously, Saylor is a bit more thoughtful as it relates to running his ATM. But I think he has to get more creative with where the market is at and where you can basically price a deal and where within this capital structure can you basically slice off different types of exposures in order to provide the exposure.

39:33And so I think like, if you ask me if I could get 10 and a half percent, 11 % yields, um, and he's 50 years covered on that, I feel comfortable taking on that risk. Um, but, but the, I think the massive hedging that we had basically seen, which we, we had seen this at some point, something should not be trading for $5 if it's worth a dollar. And so a lot of that premium has basically been arbed away and, And I think he's, again, tapping on the parts of his capital structure. I think that's going to be a little bit harder to hedge outright because it requires a certain level of credit analysis.

40:10I don't think there's CDS that's available on MicroStrategy. But, yeah, I think there's less hedging in that sense from what we saw, say, even 12 or 18 months ago. One thing I know to be true is that if you're creating yield, you're creating risk, particularly if there's no yield in an instrument, right?

40:34Raoul Pal:And so I don't think it's micro strategies that blows up, but somebody on the other side of all of this somewhere, because he's creating gigantic amounts of this stuff in different shapes and forms. Yeah. That is always interesting to me is, OK, who when the tide actually really goes out and liquidity disappears? We saw in 1010 just in US liquidity, it blows up. Right. So somebody's going to blow up. Then I'm going to add into the other complexity. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. is Athena Skulls scares the shit out of me. It's$14 billion or so. And it's generating yield, and it does it from the ARB and stuff like this.

41:22Raoul Pal:The issue is at$14 billion, they've got to be the largest player in the entire market, and I don't see them. So that's a question we always ask ourselves. I mean, it's very, very big to generate yield. And I don't know, somewhere within all of this, I've seen this all before a thousand times, and somebody blows up and it's counterparty risk. You know, we talked about it earlier on. We've all lived through this, right? We've all gone through it. I mean, we just saw it as soon as, like, I'll share my thoughts first, but like we saw it as soon as like three or four years ago. I mean, the question we always ask is when we look at a new DeFi pool or some new protocol that has a yield bearing component to it, the first question we ask is, how do you generate your yield?

42:03Now, in DeFi summer, it was just massive inflation of printing new tokens. And that work in the market was able to offer 80 % yields until everybody started selling and we saw those tokens collapse. I think on the more kind of structured side, we spend a lot of time on whether or not the counterparty risk is real. And so to TJ's coin, if you're selling, if you're running a covered call strategy, you just have to feel comfortable that your counterparties will capitalize and the counterparties can ensure that you've posted enough collateral. And generally, I think that's okay. When we look at what happened with BlockFi, I mean, the notion that you could lend your Bitcoin at 8 % and borrow against it.

42:48If anybody had bothered to ask, they should have asked, how are you generating zeal? Well, it's because they're turning around and lending it back out at 12 % to 13%.

42:55Raoul Pal:But the issue is what we didn't know, and I learned this from long-term capital when I was at Goldman, is that there was only one customer. There was one borrower, right? So the entire book, the whole street had no diversification because you had three arrows, was the one player. And when I was in equity derivatives, we were all printing money. In fact, everybody was printing money because of long-term capital. but then we realize, oh, they were the entire equity long-term vol market. They were the entire market in tons and tons of things. And three hours was the same. And that's what worries me in the yield thing is, does it end up getting concentrated in one player?

43:38There is still some of that concentration risk out there, but I think that's the reason why, and I briefly mentioned this, Ledin printed a$190 million ABS deal. I think it was two times over collateralized. And the average loan size was about 110K. It was rated BBB through the senior tranche. The MES piece, I think, was single B. And there was a small equity slice there. But because that structure was rated, you basically had folks that would never touch a Bitcoin-backed loan to pull capital to the space. And so clearly, that's a very small deal. And it's just the first deal. In many ways, It's proof of concept.

44:16But I think that concentration risk will hopefully over time be somewhat dissipated as larger pools of capital, whether they're private credit oriented funds, maybe even some banks at some point. But clearly, any insurance company that has a mandate to invest in fixed income, as long as it's rated at a certain level, they can basically deploy capital. So presumably once that capital starts flowing in, you're going to see much tighter pricing and the cost of funding move lower, which means these other yield oriented offerings that are in the market are just probably going to be less interesting at some point.

44:53But yeah, there's definitely concentration risk. I don't think we're back where we were when it was clear that Genesis and Three Arrows was basically the entire market. One was lending to the other and the one was basically buying from the other. Thankfully, we've moved on from that. But yeah, I don't disagree with you that there are pockets of concentration.

45:12Raoul Pal:The other big thing that I think is going to help this market is this Clarity Act. What's your probability that this gets agreed? My working hypothesis is the crypto lobby were the largest donors to the Republican Party. and Trump knows if he wants their money for the midterms, he's going to have to deliver this thing. So he's been hands-on on this, trying to get it done. From what I can gather, they kind of want to get it done in the next two weeks, agreed with the banks, and then it'll take a while to paper and stuff. Any views on this? So we're not as into the weeds as into the workings of DC.

45:55And so if it's two weeks, holy crap, I hope it gets done. Because from the demand side, what we see in our discussions with U.S. institutions, whether there are pension funds or endowments or foundations, these folks, they have to report into their investment committees on any new type of allocation or investment. And as you can only imagine, to the extent that there's regulatory clarity around it, it's one less box that they basically have to check. And then we can start really, really digging into the investment thesis and the risk return profile and how we're going to manage volatility. and so um i don't i didn't know it was it was that soon i will some folks had actually said by end of last year and once it got punted i just figured it was going to be put on the back burner

46:39Raoul Pal:but yeah because i think there's there's a certain window of which it needs to get done before it really gets punted into the next year i was speaking to i can't remember somebody from cynthia loomis's office called me up and was talking about it they're like if we don't get this done now it's six years that that was her opinion wow it's like this is so crucial i found it interesting that uh i think i think president trump put out a tweet yesterday that's right i mean um and this is a president right ryan armstrong was just in his office right so i mean i was in crypto in 2013 where i've gone through all the fucking wars i never thought i'd see the president united states forcing the banks to agree to sign a bill on crypto i mean what a world unbelievable so i mean i i say greater yeah greater than 50 chance it passes just given that that sequencing um and to your point right well like republicans are going to be very focused on midterms this year and it'll be a very difficult year for them if if crypto wealth and i'd say traditional equity uh market wealth is not at an all-time high yeah i i go with that and also you know i know scott besson you know he was a long-term global macro investor subscriber but he's a fellow macro hedge fund manager.

47:51I knew him from when he was at Soros in London.

47:54Raoul Pal:So I knew him from the late 90s. He knows the game. We've got a macro hedge fund manager running the treasury. Absolutely. He speaks my language. We know he's, you know, it's going to be jam it with liquidity, run it hot, get the stock market up, get the ISM up, give people money, make people happy. That's right. That's right. Super interesting. So what else are you guys looking at for the rest of the year? One of the things that we haven't talked about that I think is really worth talking about is we've all talked about agents and how agentic economy, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But it really dawned on me, and I wrote a long piece on it in GMI the other day, was that we have wildly underestimated TAM for crypto.

48:43Raoul Pal:All of our mental working model is that adoption curve. Oh, we're at 650 million wallets, according to the crypto.com thing. Use that as a consistent number and we'll get to 3 billion by 2030, right? Fine. And that's$100 trillion asset class. But completely wrong because we're going to add tens of billions of new economic participants into this space. That's right. So I'll approach that from a different angle. We noticed a trend maybe about 18 months ago that traditional asset classes were starting to mimic crypto in the way they were pricing in information in real time. And so anything that was happening in the world was getting priced into stocks, bonds, commodities almost in real time if the markets were open.

49:39because I think of social media, the ability for data to disseminate broadly, and retail traders trading on short-term information. So I think the market's changed, and I think as AI becomes a larger factor in the investment process, you're going to see more and more of that. We actually, going off a tangent here, We actually began training our own model early last year to trade a systematic macro away from crypto. It was just an experiment to see if we could train a model to think and behave the way we do as crypto managers, where we're forced to interpret real-time information and make decisions in equity sectors, fixed income products and commodities, and be very tactical and adhering to a really specific set of risk contraintion.

50:39And so we were trading with some of our prop capital a book of ETFs that did very well last year that we'll be spinning out. It's a standalone vehicle later this year. And the underlying tech is something that we capitalized and we've been monetizing on. So we do think that's a trend. It's something that will be more and more pervasive in our space. We can see a world where the future of fund management is just AIs, models, talking to one another, trading against one another.

51:16Raoul Pal:It's obvious to me that that is the way it goes. I mean, why have the cost of running a hedge fund? Why have the cost of running Millennium? I mean, Millennium is just an asset allocation algorithm. And you've got a bunch of portfolios. All of that can go. You can collapse the whole thing down to almost zero cost and sort of instantaneous. And it's definitely. Yeah. But to your point, AI agents, I mean, it's clear that trend is not reversing. And in order to... We've only just started it, right? We've only just started the X402 payment on base and then the A402 on SWE. And there's a few of these coming.

51:57Raoul Pal:The changes to how websites are going to work. The whole structure is set up for this. Yeah. And if you think about it, if crypto needed a use case, and we have various DCCs around different layer ones and stable coins. But if it ever needed a use case, it's basically primed for the agentic age, basically, because it is going to clearly be fully integrated into how that evolving economy works. And so obviously another tailwind for us. I think we're thinking about from the business side is actually developing our old AI agents to trade capital on our behalf. but on the other side the native currency or asset depending upon what that agent is expected to do i you just talk about adoption curve that isn't even factored in because the addressable market to your point has just increased and i don't think people have really figured this out they're like oh yeah agents are coming you know there'll be a bit more use of my chain they have no comprehension of the size of this thing over time oh yeah because even if you're talking about oh yeah portfolio you make a simple comment like oh well all portfolios are going to be you know run by ais right what does that mean i think it's like it's hard to rails are i mean the hard to cast your mind around it but i mean i don't know i mean does each individual do they have 10 20 30 ai agents at their disposal that are basically running you won't even know yeah Yeah, we don't even know.

53:27Raoul Pal:I mean, you'll have no idea. And that tells me, because if you think about how GDP growth, trend rate of growth is evolved, it's basically population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth, right? You're about to completely change the population growth of the crypto economy, like hyper-fucking change it. Yes, they're smaller economic actors now, but this is like bringing China into the global economy. They were earning$1 ,000 a year, and then they go to first world wealth. Productivity, because now with performance chains, you can do this. You can do really interesting stuff and smart contracts.

54:11Raoul Pal:You can do super interesting stuff. This is a step change potentially in what's coming. If I think about a mega narrative, this is it. This is the big one. You know, the institutions coming, all of that, great. But this is a step change narrative. And we haven't had one of those for a very... We have it. We've got the Clarity Act, the institutions, and then we're going to 50x the population of Cryptoland. The AI agents are coming. The AI agents are coming. So last thing before we go, tell us about the vehicle you were going to... And you said you're going to create a public vehicle. Yeah. All of our filings are on the SEC's website.

54:57We're taking one of our management companies, which is an asset manager. And it's the primary vehicle to basically put on a very specific type of risk exposure for U.S. and institutional investors. I think a lot of folks have seen what Sailor has done over the past six years. Some folks were early and into MetaPlanet. and notwithstanding, I would say the pullback here in the US, the emerging markets are still uncharted and we have an ETF here, most markets don't. And so to the extent that we can get product into these markets to allow folks to put exposure on. And we started with Bitcoin and ETH because those are the two largest, but South Korea is effectively an all-coin market.

55:41If you look at the trading volumes in digital assets on any given day, Bitcoin is not at the top. And so because of that, we wanted to get the two flagship vehicles out there today. And they're both trading on the COSDAC. And anybody can basically buy, sell, and trade that. And so we've made principal investments as well. We've raised a number of fund vehicles to basically provide that exposure for U.S.-based investors that wouldn't be able to put that on themselves. And our local management teams are out there executing.

56:11Raoul Pal:So you're wrapping all of these into a US vehicle, so then people get exposure to the opportunities set in Korea. Correct, correct. And then we put in a lot of our other kind of core hedge fund strategies as well. And so I think your view is to, we've seen the evolution of an asset class that was considered super alty at one point. I mean, I think about real estate, it's institutional today. 20, 30 years ago, it wasn't. You had a bunch of families or individuals that may have pursued commercial development. We've seen this with venture. It started with angel investors, and it's become fully institutional private credit.

56:48And so we think digital assets, it's been validated with the BlackRock ETF. And I think as the market grows, we basically want to participate in that. And so if we could have a publicly listed alternative asset manager that could provide all different types of exposure, whether it's these new product launches into a market that we're very, very bullish on from a supply and demand perspective, but also trade stat ARP strategies within the digital asset space, because we know there's an investor that wants that exposure. That's what we're doing with that vehicle.

57:23Raoul Pal:Super interesting. So you guys, cautious or optimistic or wildly optimistic for this year? i've never asked people price targets because it's it's just the worst thing ever but so cautious optimistic wildly optimistic wildly optimistic especially after the last week um given given that the headlines the geopolitical risk the fact that bitcoin is still holding strong um yeah i think i think we finish all-time high this year i think again the the end of year rally if And is it an alt year? So does Bitcoin dominance fall? I think momentum, the ETH Bitcoin ratio momentum will tell us that. I'm not asking for how we look at it.

58:17Raoul Pal:I'm asking for your view. I think... I'm a little bank trader. Well, you know, here's my bid offer spread. No, I want your view. No, this year, I think Bitcoin does better. Bitcoin dominance goes up. Yeah, I think this year, I think Bitcoin dominance is an oscillating trend.

58:41Again, right now, end of year, I say, yeah, dominance goes up.

58:44Raoul Pal:So what you're telling people is we can't have nice things and nobody can have their old season. And it's going to be your fault, TJ. So, Ed, what's your view on this? I mean, do I want to be right or do I want to make money? And so like you, I'm super thesis driven. And we spend so much time not only studying the underlying blockchains, but using them every day in our investing activities. And I just see the functionality and what these things are able to do and accrue value. We need a bid, Raul. We need somebody to actually share that view as well. And so where do I think capital is going to form?

59:25um i think btc is still going to be the primary pool but but uh a lot of these layer ones and the dApps that are being created on top of them i mean if i think about hyperliquid and and it exceeding coinbase's trading volumes at a certain point you just can't ignore that right it doesn't matter what your view on bitcoin is or what the space is if you see real adoption um taking place in a certain area because there's real building and there's product market fit that's unignorable and again if i think about a token like hyperliquid it's had it's had relatively strong outperformance and so but there there's still a lot of garbage in the space uh that needs to kind of get wiped out and and you know as when we think about all coins i think we have a thesis and and because of the sums of capital that we're putting to work we have to have a very strong thesis so that we can underwrite that for both the short, medium, and long term.

1:00:22But most of the folks that may just start entering the space, to the extent that there's an alt season, it's probably like looking at meme coins and these things that are going to flame out. And so I think...

1:00:32Raoul Pal:Yeah, how I think of it is, you know, earlier stage layer ones, application layer stuff that's got proven traction. I don't go that far out the risk curve. It's just, that's just a crapshoot at that point. So on that point, I agree with you. I think it'll be nuanced and you'll see relative performance across the buckets and even within the subsegments within the buckets. But there will be certain alts that will absolutely outperform. If I think about, you know, what happened with privacy tokens. That's an interesting narrative, I think. Right. And so it could be persistent. So I think we'll see pockets of outperformance.

1:01:05But in order for the entire alt complex to move out, I think we're generally alive because you and I are removing, you know, the 40 ,000 other tokens that are not like.

1:01:16Raoul Pal:Time to think about them, yeah. Yeah, it's just, you know, it generally does others outperform Bitcoin, possibly is how I think of it. Others on the TradingView chart. So really you're not going that far down the curve. Yep. Yep. Cool. All right, guys. Well, really appreciate it. Let's hope that your wildly bullish call, TJ, is right. I think, I hope that you're wrong on your Bitcoin dominance call. We'll see. We'll see. It's been great. Yeah. All right, guys. Great to see you. Thanks a lot. Thanks so much. Bye.

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