URGENT Update: Time To Sell My Crypto? Markets CRASH Explained by Raoul Pal

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1:31with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential world. So we get all of that all in one place. See you at Token 2049 in Dubai.

1:53Hey, everyone. Look, I know it's a bit chaotic in markets and many of you are first cycle in crypto. and I know that you need a bit of guidance and a bit of reassurance that everything's going to be okay. Listen, all of us have our lives and dreams in this, this whole kind of banana zone thesis. It all matters. We're all trying to unfuck our future. And although the majority of my work is in global macro investor, where Julian Patel and myself probably have, well, without question, have the largest, deepest, broadest macro crypto set of analysis of anywhere in the world, we try and share it with Real Vision Pro members.

2:31And in addition, also Julian puts out MIT, which is part of Real Vision Plus, which is an incredible weekly guide to all of this. But I know many of you can't afford to or haven't yet signed up to Real Vision. So I'm going to do it for you for free here as well, just to help you understand where we are in the cycle. now do me a favor if this is important to you then sign up to the youtube channel excuse me if you haven't already and also i'm going to give you a full deck it'll be on the real vision platform so go there it's free realvision.com forward slash join then you can have the deck and you'll see all the other incredible parts of real vision and how it can help you unfuck your future so that's my plug over it's really all there to help you i've built it all for you.

3:21There's an incredible team of people all there to guide you. Anyway, let's go through how not to fuck this up. I've got the Don't Fuck This Up t-shirt on. You can now understand again what I keep saying. If you're using leverage, you are going to get blown out and you're going to lose control of your tokens. That is rule number one. Do not lose control of your tokens. Do not use leverage. Don't FOMO and don't get fearful at the wrong points in the cycle. We have a framework. It's there to help you. We are still early stage within the final year of the crypto bull market when a lot of the big gains come.

3:56It's time not to lose your shit. Have patience. See the bigger picture. Also, how you construct your portfolio. I'm saying, well, 35 % pullbacks are par for the course. And you're saying to me, oh, my God, my fucking portfolio is down 80%. It's because you're not using the don't fuck this up thesis, which is you can only have a small part of your portfolio in the smaller tokens. Yes, I also understand that Solana is down 55 % or 53 % today. And it's painful for many of you because Solana is a big position. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives.

4:38Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. But again, over time, you'll see that this kind of volatility is normal in a token at this stage, and you should be fine with all of that. So if you can, you buy the dip. And let me show you why and how. So I'm going to run through some charts for you that Julian and I put together specifically for you.

5:18These are from Global Macro Investor, which is my permanent research service. Firstly, the chart that everybody knows about. This is the chart Julian and I came up with, Global M2 in dollars with a 10-week lead over Bitcoin. Now, we were not sure whether it was going to follow this exactly because we had an identical setup in GlobalM2 in 2017 in the last Trump cycle. And what happened is crypto collapsed 35 % in a week and then slowly recovered with CHOP. I wasn't sure whether we were going to have the full sell-off to follow this pattern or we were going to go sideways over the period. We eventually went sideways first and then had the sell-off.

6:00Either way, it's on track exactly as GlobalM2. What it's saying to you is that financial conditions that tightened last year due to the dollar rallying in anticipation of Trump and also rates going up in anticipation of tariffs, well, that is what's playing through now. Now, if you look at the chart going forward, that reverses. Yes, there's going to be a period of chop. We're going to be finding the lows around here, and I'll come more on that in a sec. then there's a period of chop and then we start coming back up the other side so it's nothing to concern yourselves with volatility is part of the game without the volatility on the downside you don't get the 150 returns or more on the upside so anyway calm down have patience let this play out solana i know many of you are in solana and solana got nuked because of the collapse of the mean coin economy.

6:57Now, I think Solana, as you know, is a very broad, deep protocol. There is a lot of activity that goes on. There'll be other activity that replaces memes. Some memes will come back to life. It is not what people are saying. It's a scam coin. It's a dead coin. It's all fucking nonsense. But Solana has overshot versus global M2. And that is this last leg of the cycle. So Solana is looking very cheap. And I'll show you a bit more on that in a sec. So that's interesting. Again, you should be thinking about the dips. Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of this cycle and Ethereum too, with Sui outperforming Solana.

7:35Those are my bets. Now, I don't want to hear from you saying, yeah, but what about this token and that token and my token's better than your token? This is not a fucking player versus player world. It is a player versus everything. We all want everybody to succeed here. follow the don't fuck this up thesis don't have all of your stuff in small altcoins have about 80 or 90 percent in the main tokens and you'll be fine but again this is not a player versus player we're not trying to out compete with each other we're all trying to win here and that's very important to me have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.

8:21See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets.

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9:07Okay, so financial conditions are kind of the big daddy of all of this. And the three-month and three-month rates of change of Bitcoin is driven by financial conditions, which leads by three months. So financial conditions obviously tightened because of the dollar and rates back in last year. Now, Bitcoin has fully priced that in. So we're at the price point that is right. Now, could it then chop around along the bottom until it starts mirroring the rally in financial conditions? Possibly. This is also obviously very similar to the Global M2 chart because they're all highly correlated. I just want to show it to you in a different way.

9:47The next chart is what you're hearing a lot of noise about is there's an economic weakness coming. Economic data is coming out weak. Yes, it is. And it's been driven by the dollar last year. Again, there is a lead here. And the dollar strength last year is causing economic weakness. This is the reason everybody wants a weaker dollar. China wants a weaker dollar so they can stimulate. They're desperate to stimulate. The world has a lot of dollar debts. They need a weaker dollar to service those debts. The US needs a weaker dollar to export goods. The global economy needs a weaker dollar. But first, we're going to see that weakening of the US economy because of what happened last year in the dollar.

10:33And then things will start to change again and the economic cycle will pick up. Now, And it probably also means that rates will come lower because economic data is weaker. So that's playing into our idea that financial conditions are going to ease over time. So it's yet building a more positive case. No, it's not going to be a recession. All of that talk is nonsense. Economic data will weaken for a bit and then strengthen. But this is all good for us. Yes, tech stocks are slightly worried about weaker growth. But again, when we can look forwards using the analysis, we can see recovery is around the corner.

11:10Now, when we look at last time around in 2017, when Trump came in, we saw a very similar thing. Economic surprises fell off a cliff because the dollar had strengthened in anticipation of Trump coming into office. That then eventually reversed and the economic cycle picked up massively and the dollar weakened hugely. and that drove what was a very large crypto and risk cycle, even though the Fed were raising rates. You see, global financial conditions are the key thing here. And that could be driven by the US or it could be driven by China or it could be driven by Europe. It could be any of these economic powers or it could be all of them.

11:49So as the dollar weakens, we're already seeing that mechanisms like dollar yen are starting to move a lot more. Now, dollar yen is incredibly important because the Japanese banking system is the heart of the euro dollar system. They're the ones who lend out dollars into the global economy. And that finds itself its backdoor into China that allows China to service its dollar debts. And if the dollar is weaker, then China can weaken its currency. Sorry, it can then stimulate more aggressively. It needs to do trillions of dollars of QE to service the bankrupt real estate sector and other parts of the non-performing loan sector.

12:29So anyway, that's all to come. If we look at the dollar now versus then, very similar. Trump back then said the dollar is too strong. They've already talked about it, him and Scott Besant. They've already talked about the long end of rates. What they want is the dollar. First, they will use the dollar as a bargaining tool with the Chinese, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Mexicans to get the tariffs in place. In exchange, they will give a weaker dollar. That helps everybody out. We could all then move forwards with the global economy and the global economy should be strong. The back end of rates, which is like 10 year rates and stuff.

13:07Well, that's going to help you guys, too, because your mortgages will come down and borrowings for corporations will come down. And that gives everybody more money and that stimulates economic growth. This is all to come. They've made it very clear that that's what they want to do. global m2 back in 2017 exactly following this cycle same kind of administration with the same tariff policies dollar reacted the same the markets reacted the same so again don't expect these to be perfection but expect this to start playing out again if this is the case then m2 is going to keep going up all fucking year if that is the case then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.

13:51Again, don't expect perfection. It won't be exact, but it'll be close enough. I don't see any reason why that won't be the case. And anybody telling you otherwise is just plucking stories. We do the analysis, lots and lots of it. We have hundreds upon hundreds, maybe thousands of charts on all of this. Another way of looking at it is GlobalM2. It kind of consolidates for periods of time. Those periods of time tend to be crypto winter and then crypto spring. As we start transitioning into summer, you get this breakout in M2 and then a retest. We've had the breakout and retest. And what happens is after that retest, that tends to be phase one correction of the banana zone.

14:32We started the banana zone in September, October, November. Then we start correcting. We continue to correct and then we take off again. That's all to play for. It's very normal. It's playing out like a very typical cycle. The other thing that drives all of this is the business cycle. See, the business cycle is driven by financial conditions, liquidity, all of those things. But this is how businesses do when financial conditions get easier. The ISM survey above 50 shows the economy starting to grow. Now, economic growth has been strong, but that's been driven by the government sector. But again, Trump and Besson have said they really want the private sector to take over.

15:13So what they're telling you is they want the ISM to go up. They want the private sector to start expanding, regular businesses. And regular businesses expanding also drive Bitcoin. So Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up. So this kind of rate of change of Bitcoin will give us much higher prices if the ISM gets up to its normal cycle peak of somewhere between 56 and 65. And that will give us the magnitude of the rise in Bitcoin. We don't yet have a full handle on how high the ISM will go this cycle. But if it goes above 60, I mean, those are high prices in Bitcoin. That's above 300 ,000, maybe even higher.

15:59Now, again, I don't use forecasts because you guys don't deserve them because you use them against me and say, well, you predicted that. I'm not predicting. What we're trying to do is give you contextualisation of how the market can evolve so you can play along from home. Rising ISM will be good for your bags and rising ISM should it may still be choppy because we're still coming through. We need rates to go lower. But as that happens, we will see this pick up. forward-looking indicators of ISM, like ISM new orders less inventories, leads by three months. It's going up very sharply. Again, expect it to be choppy, but it's telling us ISM should be going up.

16:40So that's good for Bitcoin in the future. Three months' time, Bitcoin should be much higher. Okay, great. It's starting to get this now. The ISM also says, well, when that starts coming above 50, what happens is altcoins tend to outperform. Now, there's all this bullshit online. There's going to be no altcoin season. It's never going to happen. It's only a Bitcoin-only season. It's all about the ETFs, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Simply, probably not true. Again, we deal in a world of probabilities and no certainties, but probabilistically speaking, as the business cycle accelerates, people go further out the risk curve because they have more money.

17:20You're earning more money. Your mortgage has gone down. You have higher savings. You can recycle them into assets. It happens at corporate level, too, as corporate earnings go up and the overvaluation that people are scared about of the stock market. Well, that all becomes noise as well because earnings expand and then those earnings get recycled into investments and the market goes higher. So altcoins should outperform in the next phase once we get out of this corrective phase. Okay, let's look at these corrective phases. If you guys have got this far and followed me, we've gone through one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, 20 % plus pullbacks.

18:00And you can't remember those. You might remember the last summer one because that was pretty miserable. But that's it. We deal with this. The volatility is a feature, not a bug. You need the volatility to drive these massive rips when they come. So that's where we are. We've seen this. We should be somewhere close to bottoming. Now, with those seven pullbacks, we've still had 600 % returns from the low. Again, you've forgotten about those because you're like, oh my God, it got to 110 and now it's at 80. It's like, it's all fucking noise, kids. Really, honestly. When we go back to 2017, it was more violent because Bitcoin was earlier in its adoption phase.

18:43And we had one, two, three, four, five, 30 % plus pullback, some of them at 40%. So this is more like Solana now, which is more volatile because it's earlier in the cycle. It's more like Ethereum. It's more like others. So this gives you the contextualization of what you're going to have to stomach to make the money, to unfuck your future, you're going to have to learn to deal with volatility. And if you've got any spare income and you can invest, you can buy some of these dips. But be careful later in the cycle, you don't want to overextend when you should be thinking about how do I take money off.

19:18But we're far too early for that yet. I talked about we could take lifestyle chips off sometime in the first quarter. Looks like it's pushed out to the second quarter. I'll keep you updated when that happens. But again, I'm very chill about this. When you zoom out, Bitcoin is just retesting where it broke out from. That's it, guys. It's hardly a big deal. When we look at the RSI of Bitcoin, it's like the second most oversold it's been in this entire cycle. These are opportunities. When it gets this oversold, yes, it can chop around a bit at those lows. Might even make a new low. might chop rally new low which will then diverge on the rsi but it's telling you one month from now prices will start climbing for sure they'll be higher than here and then two months three months four months we should have much higher prices so once we've got the corrections out of the way you start to look forward to okay now i can get some real price action going again so that's to come when we look at solana everyone's like oh my god solana solana look at the price it's just gone back into the range so we had the kind of the meme mania peak then we've taken off the memes solana got the most oversold it's been i think pretty much since the ftx days it's oversold versus global m2 it should be fine going forwards it's a very clean market there will be plenty of on-chain activity in solana as we go forwards uh it's a broad deep rich ecosystem so nothing to worry about and I think many of the memes or a few of the memes will be phoenix the rise from the ashes we will see some great recoveries in some of that stuff too but remember that's only for 10 % of our portfolio the risky stuff is 10 % Solana is a core position for most people and that's a good one you know the core positions that I talk about for most people will vary depending on your case.

21:19But I've always used Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, and I use Siri as a higher beta bet because I think that's going to do well this cycle. Again, you may choose different names. You may have XRP, you may have something else. That's fine. You do you, I'll do me. Let's just wish each other the best because that's all we want to do. We want everybody to do well out of this. If this is going to go from$3 trillion as a market cap to$100 trillion. We want everybody to make as much money as possible, and we can fuck it to the banking system and everybody else. We deserve this. This is our system. It's made for us, and it's ours to capture.

21:58Help each other out is the key thing, and not fight with each other. Fear and greed. Everyone's fearful as shit right now. It's collapsed down to 20, so super fearful. Again, these tend to be good inflection points to start thinking about absorbing. We're seeing exactly the same inequities, funnily enough. The NASDAQ, we've suddenly gone to this massive bearish sentiment. 80 % of all surveys are bears. Those tend to lead to almost V-shaped recoveries. So now, can we have another one or two sharp shell-offs around these levels? Possibly. But basically, it's telling us everyone's got way too bearish worrying about global growth.

22:42They're not seeing that that was something that happened last year. The forward-looking indicators are doing the opposite. So your Tesla stock, your Coinbase stock, all of these things that you own, they should be fine going forwards. We've just had a growth scare driven by the dollar and driven by financial conditions. That has passed. The dollar is weakening and rates are coming lower. so when i put my d mark indicators on top which are my favored technical analysis indicators we're at day six of a nine count so it tells us probably in the next three days this will all be done is the low in already i think it probably is um but could we kind of bounce have another stab at the low whatever day nine that would be fine for the nasdaq because it's not open on weekends it looks like it's kind of wednesday that it does it almost everything has the same set of indicators right now so it's because it's all driven by the same thing so it tells us that this all of this stuff this stuff that's making everyone nervous should be over by the end of by the middle of next week and then we can go to the healing phase and then again we can start rising the healing phase who knows could be two weeks could be a month but the back end of march we should start to see prices accelerate.

24:01And then April, May, June, we should see some really significant price action as the second phase of the banana zone kicks in. These phases of the banana zone, I get so fed up with people online going, where's my banana? Your banana fell over. Your banana's not ripe. Your banana, blah, blah. The banana zone is a period of time that lasts a year. It is not an instant gratification. You guys need patience more than anything else and need to understand markets. So we had the start of the banana zone. We are now in correction phase one. That happens each and every time. Look at 2017. It's almost identical.

24:39Then as we go into March, April, May, we start accelerating up again into the next phase of the banana zone. And then we'll have another correction. And you'll be going, oh my God, it's all over. It's all over. Am I going to die? Have we screwed this up? Where's your banana? Again, you'll have forgotten everything that went before it and you'll be gripped with fear all over again. Then we have the final top into the end of the cycle. My view is that the business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It's starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026. Not a guarantee, not yet a prediction, but is what is in my head because of the structure of the business cycle.

25:24So we can probably keep going longer and that will still give us much higher prices to come. So the game is all to play for. It is a game of don't fuck this up. It is a game of understanding the rules, understanding to have patience and stepping back, zooming out, touching grass, touching sand and let it play out. All of our futures are resting on the same thing. I take this very seriously. I'm doing my absolute best, along with Julian, to guide you in this. Again, do me a favor. If you're watching this on YouTube, subscribe to the bloody channel. um also if you want this deck and you want a lot more analysis come across to real vision realvision.com forward slash join where we can really take care of you and help you unfuck your future anyway best of luck out there breathe deeply and we'll all be okay

26:24it's good to be here at the main blockchain event of this year You get to speak to the smartest people, people like you trying to figure this out, but also the people on stage. They're the experts. What more can you ask? It's a brilliant, brilliant event, and you'll come away with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential world. So we get all of that all in one place. See you at Token 2049 in Dubai.

26:57If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments.

27:37S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus.