Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev on predicting the future

13 Nov 2025 · 1 h 4 min · 26 chapters

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In short

Vlad Tenev (Robinhood CEO) discusses prediction markets as “truth machines” and a new asset class, plus Robinhood’s broader strategy (financial super app, tokenization, and democratizing access to markets).

Guest backgrounds

Vlad Tenev is CEO of Robinhood, a public fintech focused on trading/investing products and crypto. Co-hosts are Alex and Ellis Hamburger (Vox Media’s Access).

Key claims

  • Prediction markets set prices based on market actors with “real skin in the game,” producing more reliable forecasts than polls/opinions.
  • Prediction markets are federally regulated via CFTC oversight (not a “Wild West”).
  • Robinhood’s prediction markets growth is driven by sports and expanding non-sports categories (economics, tech, politics).
  • Tokenized stocks could improve access, settlement (24/7, instant), stock loan economics, and portability; ex-US adoption first.
  • Speculation is necessary for market functioning; Robinhood says its prediction markets are cash-collateralized with no leverage.

Notable examples

New York mayoral election dashboards calling outcomes early; Kalshi calling a race before CBS; insurance/fire risk contracts as a future personalized market.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Introduction to Access

0:03 to 0:33

Hosts discuss their recent trip to San Francisco and upcoming content.

“Does it ever feel like you're being told to wave a magic AI wand and everything will just get better?”

Introduction to Access

1:02 to 1:36

Hosts discuss their recent trip to San Francisco and upcoming content.

“We have to remind ourselves to not get complacent.”

Reflections on Live Podcasting

1:36 to 3:52

The hosts reflect on their first live podcast experience and audience reactions.

“It's Access, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.”

Discussion on New Ventures

3:52 to 5:00

Ellis talks about a new startup he advises and its innovative product.

“I think we scared some of the Google Ventures folks a little bit with our first question about the worst advice Google Ventures ever gave you.”

Grandma-Centric Design

5:00 to 7:08

Exploration of user-centered design focusing on non-tech users, like grandmas.

“And so essentially what Beside is, is it's kind of like they rebuilt the phone and the messages app with a new phone number for you for people who work on their phones all day.”

San Francisco's Tech Culture

7:08 to 9:06

Hosts share experiences and observations from their visits to San Francisco.

“for a different customer than the average.”

Networking Strategies

9:06 to 12:20

Discussion on the importance of networking and building sources in tech.

“Like every city has this microcosm, but just the opposite of GCD is what we experienced at the Ferry Building, I think.”

Preview of the Interview with Vlad Tenev

12:20 to 13:44

Hosts introduce Vlad Tenev and prepare to kick off the interview segment.

“But for now I'm going to do it as long as I don't keep getting sick.”

Preview of the Interview with Vlad Tenev

13:48 to 14:33

Hosts introduce Vlad Tenev and prepare to kick off the interview segment.

“I'm sure you've heard a lot of vague promises about AI, like it's a magic solution or a miracle cure or a bit of pixie dust.”

Post-Earnings Week Insights

15:14 to 15:56

Vlad discusses what a post-earnings week looks like for him and his team.

“What's a post-earnings week like for you?”
Show all 26 chapters

The Role of Prediction Markets

15:56 to 19:50

Exploration of prediction markets as a new asset class and how they provide reliable forecasts.

“I think where we'd like to start, though, is prediction markets, because it's something that everyone's talking about.”

Accuracy and Reliability of Predictions

19:51 to 22:50

Discussion on the factors that contribute to the accuracy of prediction markets.

“I have a lot of things that I love about the idea of prediction markets and some questions.”

Regulation and Market Integrity

22:53 to 28:01

Vlad explains the regulatory landscape of prediction markets and the importance of market integrity.

“And I wouldn't say that the sportsbooks haven't exactly figured out either.”

Growth of Prediction Markets

28:01 to 30:00

Learn about the rapid growth and evolution of prediction markets.

“Gold card had half a million plus cardholders.”

Personalized Contracts and Insurance Disruption

30:01 to 32:58

Explore how personalized contracts in prediction markets could disrupt the insurance industry.

“I think on the last earnings, you said that the prediction business in October was bigger for you all than the whole last quarter combined.”

Speculation's Role in Financial Markets

32:59 to 35:38

Understand the necessity of speculation for the functioning of financial markets.

“I mean, regulators are going to come crashing in on this if it gets to that level, don't you think?”

Guiding Clients in Risky Investments

35:39 to 40:54

Discover how Robinhood approaches guiding clients in potentially risky investments.

“Even if you read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, one of the seminal books of value investing, he talks about how speculation is actually integral to the proper functioning.”

Guiding Clients in Risky Investments

40:58 to 41:48

Discover how Robinhood approaches guiding clients in potentially risky investments.

“Sure, AI can write emails, summarize some documents, and even churn out a business plan in a few seconds.”

Lighthearted Banter

42:00 to 42:18

The hosts share a humorous exchange about construction and personal savings.

“I'm thinking the floor is going to be all trampoline, bro.”

Understanding Tokenization

42:18 to 44:42

Vlad Tenev discusses the importance and challenges of tokenizing stocks.

“You've tokenized, quote unquote, a lot of companies so far.”

Navigating Private Markets

44:42 to 49:19

Tenev shares insights on the complexities of private market access and IPOs.

“So private companies are a different story.”

Company Culture and Leadership

49:19 to 52:28

Tenev talks about leading Robinhood and fostering a dynamic company culture.

“and the supporters as early as possible is going to be immensely valuable.”

Robinhood's Social Network Vision

52:28 to 56:04

Discussion on Robinhood's plans to create an interactive social network for finance.

“Look, we have to remind ourselves to not get complacent.”

Building a Financial Content Ecosystem

56:04 to 1:02:35

Learn about Robinhood's vision for creating a platform for financial discussions and content.

“I thought you were going to say the users could slime you or something if they felt like it.”

Earnings as Entertainment: A New Approach

1:02:35 to 1:03:13

Discover how Robinhood is transforming earnings calls into engaging events.

“And hopefully it leads to an investing public that's more informed because they're actually watching and listening to the earnings calls.”

The Shades Controversy: Trust in Appearance

1:03:13 to 1:03:51

Explore the impact of appearance on trust and perception in business presentations.

“Actually, if you saw my France event, I wore shades.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Ellis:Support for this show is brought to you by Salonis. Does it ever feel like you're being told to wave a magic AI wand and everything will just get better? Sure, AI can chat and summarize. But what about big business problems like rerouting stock through a canal that won't unblock? Enterprise AI needs context for that, so Salonis provides it. The Salonis context model gives AI operational clarity so agents know how your unique business runs and how to prove it. Meet the model at C-E-L-O-N-I-S dot com slash context. We've all been there. You pop into the shop for five minutes and all of a sudden you've forgotten where you parked.

0:38Ellis:Car? Car? Unfortunately, that lost feeling is what it's like trying to manage your policy with other insurers. Here, car. Come out, come out, wherever you are. Please. With GEICO, you can use the app to easily manage all your policies in one place. Did this parking lot have a waterfall? I think you've wandered too far, mate. It feels good to find what you're looking for. It feels good to Geico. We have to remind ourselves to not get complacent. I try to remind our employees of that as well. And I'm saying it to the employees as much as I'm saying it to myself, right? Like, I know inevitably I've been through so many of these cycles.

1:15There's going to be a time in the future where everyone thinks we're shitheads again. Hopefully less acute than times before. And generally, I believe the trend will be up. But, you know, it's always cyclical to some degree. And that's just what we sign up for.

1:36It's Access, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We're back, baby, from San Francisco. Day trip, feeling fresh, feeling alive. At least I think I am, maybe more so than you, Ellis. Ellis Hamburger, what's up?

1:47Ellis:Yeah, I'm not quite as well-practiced as you are yet, Alex, with the like go to three Facebook events in one week. Yeah. All three separate day trips. This was my first San Francisco day trip. It was fun. I liked it. It wasn't a day trip. You spent the night with your brother. Yes, technically. But it was like 24 hours, I guess I would say. That's a day. We established I need a cooler suitcase. Yes. Since toting around a 10-year-old travel pro suitcase is like no Remova. I think as you said, Ellis, at least get in the way suitcase. And I think you were 100 % right about that. If anyone is listening, forming my Christmas list.

2:27Ellis:Yeah. Hint, hint. It was great. We had some good partner meetings, and then we did our first live show with the fine folks at Google Ventures. That interview is going to air next week. That was great. What did you think of the first live pod experience? It was fun. I mean, I'm not much of a stool guy. I don't love to sit on stools. I don't know. I don't want to do like the Donald Trump Jr. like hyper straight sitting on the stool posture. But I also don't want to slouch. You know what I'm saying? I was also holding my daylight tablet, which was misbehaving a little bit. And I could not get Android to increase the size of the font on the screen.

3:12Ellis:So you're right, Alex. I was squinting at that a little bit. Yeah. But I thought it went well. I mean, it was a good vibe. Our guest, Winston Weinberg of Harvey, which for the life of me, I cannot remember that name, was a lovely guest. And yeah, I guess we'll see how the audio and video look and sound. First time we've done that thing live. Yeah. AI for lawyers. I appreciated his candidness on things that CEOs normally dodge. Don't want to spoil too much, but I thought it was a pretty good convo. And you know what? We got like three or four Google digs in at a Google Ventures event and they loved it.

3:50So I say that's a win-win.

3:52Ellis:I think we scared some of the Google Ventures folks a little bit with our first question about the worst advice Google Ventures ever gave you. But we brought it back around and they loved us by the end of it. Yeah. I think for me what it showed is that we should do live more often. Like I think when you and I are together, it's just way easier to pick up on little things and interject. and some of the most fun moments are when you can just react in the moment, you know? And it's just so much harder virtually. It is. I mean, with virtual, all I've got is like, are you marginally opening your mouth to indicate that you may want to speak?

4:27Ellis:That's all I've got in terms of body language. We've got Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robin Hood, on the show coming up very soon. Very excited about that to discuss a lot with him. But there's some other news in your world this week, right? Yeah. I had a big launch for a company I'm advising and have been helping since they were an itty-bitty baby startup a couple years ago. They were actually one of my very first clients at Meaning back when they were called M1. And they've been building in stealth, which isn't quite as common these days. but the reason for that is because they've been evolving the product from something similar to maybe what granola and some of the other note takers were offering a couple years ago to being very vertical specific kind of in the way that like harvey as we uh talk about on that on that next episode is building for lawyers i think we're starting to see that creating the right interface for different audiences takes something from being a rapper which as you say on the show is like used to be a derogatory thing to actually being a potential smash hit.

5:33Ellis:And so essentially what Beside is, is it's kind of like they rebuilt the phone and the messages app with a new phone number for you for people who work on their phones all day. Like as they wrote on their blog, there are like 100 million Americans, like real estate agents, contractors, plumbers, truck dispatchers who like work on their phone, like phone phone, not journalists, FaceTime audio. I'm on calls. Yeah, journalists as well. And yet they can answer less than half of the calls that they get just because they're working all day. I have too many sources calling me, Ellis. I can't answer at all.

6:09Yeah.

6:10Ellis:Yeah, yeah. So it's kind of like a combination of an AI receptionist with an AI note taker that deeply gets to know you. And apparently it's taken off. Yeah, they just raised$32 million. And so, yeah, I'm excited to have Maxine, the CEO, on the pod in a few weeks. yeah I think my favorite thing about their launch today though is they did like fashion photo shoot with like less glamorous uh users I guess I would say like in tech I mean we just got back from San Francisco and like every single billboard is for like your chief people officer yeah like how about the grandma who runs the winery or the you know Joe the plumber or uh someone who does insurance or something like that like these are people who probably need the tech more than we do to increase our to-do list efficiency by 8%.

6:59Ellis:People who like can't stand the busy work that they have to do all day, every day. And so, yeah, I like that they're trying to build for a different customer than the average. Yeah, I saw your tweet. What is grandma-centric design? I just like the idea that everybody in tech always talks about user-centered design, but the user is usually like a designer in San Francisco that they're designing for. see i'm bullish on grandma centered design uh i actually think ai is like absolutely perfect for this like grandma doesn't know how to vibe code nap or even what that means let alone create her own receptionist for like her her small business but with this software you can essentially tell the ai how you want to answer the phone what questions you wanted to ask have it input it all into a document or a form for you and then it's done it's like is that not the dream of like natural language programming or coding and for an audience that like i said uh probably needs it more than we do yeah it is funny when you go to sf we're at shack 15 which is this new buzzy kind of co-working space in the ferry building where gv was having the uh the live pod taping and man the stuff you just overhear in there it's like yeah this is such a bubble uh you know like you I was walking to the bathroom and it was multiple people talking about their VC funds.

8:23You like, you'll walk by over subscribed rounds full, you know, just like things that would feel mean or like something on a TV show. If you were outside of San Francisco, but are just so normal. And I like leaving and coming back. I am going back tomorrow for another AI conference, Cerebral Valley. Shout out Eric Newcomer. It's a great AI conference. But I like leaving and leaving and going because it gives me a little bit of a outsider's perspective, even though I'm there a ton. And I still am routinely like, I can't believe this is actually this place. I mean, maybe this is how San Franciscans feel when they come to LA and they go to a coffee shop and it's people talking about their script or something, right?

9:06Like every city has this microcosm, but just the opposite of GCD is what we experienced at the Ferry Building, I think.

9:15Ellis:Yeah, I mean, if you're into this stuff, it's pretty fun, right? Like, I remember my first trip as a reporter to San Francisco, and I went to this coffee shop called The Mill, and there's Mike Krieger, like the co-creator of Instagram, just like doing something on his laptop. And you know, to us, those kinds of people are celebrities, right? And then on the plane ride back today, I'm on the plane with Aziz Ansari and Queens of the Stone Age. are you serious on the yeah so i guess i got i got a bit of yeah yeah we made an eye contact a couple times shout out aziz did you uh get him to subscribe oh i played it cool i played it cool so what are you going to tomorrow worth going to san francisco twice in one week yeah i mean it will have been over by the time this comes out but eric newcomer who does a great newsletter on substack newcomer uh and podcast does uh this cerebral valley ai summits every year this is like the third year I've gone every year, I think.

10:14And he has a bunch of great AI founders, investors, all get together for a big powwow. And there's a bunch of like networking. And it's a really good for me, just temperature check on the state of the industry. It's fun to look back at each year when I do my recap to see how the conversation shifted. Like, I think the last time I went, everyone was paranoid about the scaling laws and has AI hit its limits. You know, this was, I think, uh, you know, it was way before GPT five, but it was like, are we going to keep getting gains out of training? And, you know, cause it's also like a bunch of researchers are there.

10:51Um, and so it's always fun. I'll be curious to see what the, uh, the temperature is. I imagine it's going to be a lot of AI bubble stuff, uh, this time. Um, but yeah, I'm going to go back for that. And, uh, I mean, Lord willing, right. Uh, I, I tweeted this, uh, the day we left for SF, uh, protect flighty at all costs. It actually went pretty viral, uh, because you know, the flights are, flights are rough right now. And, uh, if you are not a flighty user, uh, they're not sponsoring us, but shout out flighty, uh, it is a great app for tracking your flights. It actually saved me from being stuck on the tarmac until about 3 AM, uh, last night.

11:28So I moved my flight up because of the tarmac tracker it's got. So that's a great app, really great app.

11:35Ellis:How many hashtag sources are you hoping to come out of this event with? Do you have like a quota for each event you go to? No, I'm going to see existing sources. I always make new ones. You know, I really think pounding the pavement, so to speak, is the returns are very hard to quantify in the near term, but very real in the long term. It's almost impossible for me to point to the impact of all of this in real life networking that I have always made a concerted effort to do, like the impact of it on my career, but it's been immense. I mean, it's obviously easier when you don't have kiddos, but and your flights make it on time.

12:20So we'll see. But for now I'm going to do it as long as I don't keep getting sick.

12:26Ellis:What does one say, I would love to add you as a source on Signal? Where do you add someone these days? Yeah, Signal is where it gets real. Sometimes the best source is you never have that conversation. It's just a natural thing. It's like falling in love. It's like falling in source. Sure. Yeah. Can you give us a pickup line for making a new source? I usually lead with like something I've heard. It's not a line, but I lead with like a little gossip to try to stir the pot. You know, you can't just be a taker. You got to be a giver. Yeah, that's actually interesting. That reminds me back when I feel like back when I was at Snap, sometimes you would say something to me like, oh, I heard blank.

13:12Ellis:And you wouldn't even ask me a question. But what am I going to do? just sit there and then I just start talking. Not that I shared anything. No, you didn't. Exactly what you were doing. Yeah. But it is a good strategy because no one wants to like be awkward when someone says something and they share something interesting. And like it makes you want to say something back. So sometimes the best question is not a question at all. Perfect. Okay. Well, let's ask Vlad some questions. Shall we kick it to Vlad? Yeah, let's kick it to Vlad. Support for this show is brought to you by Salonis. I'm sure you've heard a lot of vague promises about AI, like it's a magic solution or a miracle cure or a bit of pixie dust.

13:54Ellis:And if you just add a little AI, suddenly your business gets faster, smarter, and easier. Sure, AI can write emails, summarize documents, and come up with a lot of synonyms for magic. But what happens when it comes to your biggest opportunities or your toughest business challenges? Most AI tools will tell you that's a great question. Then they'll pull from public information and hand back a list of generic suggestions. That's not much help when demand suddenly spikes and you're trying to reroute inventory through a supply chain bottleneck halfway around the world. Celonis gives AI the context it needs to understand how your business actually works and where it can improve.

14:28Ellis:Because AI isn't magic, but when it has the right context, the results are pretty remarkable. Learn more about how the Context model gives Enterprise AI operational clarity at C-E-L-O-N-I-S dot com slash context. When I got a new car, I thought my insurance premium would increase and empty my bank account. Like if Fetween won the lottery. I've invested most of my winnings in chicken tenders because they're bomb. But bro, I bought a house and it's sick, bro. I'm thinking the floor is going to be all trampoline, bro. With the helipad on the roof. The contractor said it's structurally unsound. They're just being babies.

15:05Ellis:Bud, switching to Geico saved me hundreds, so my bank account is safe. It feels good to save some hard-earned cash. It feels good to Geico. Vlad, good to see you. What's a post-earnings week like for you? I'm curious, especially lately. It's only Tuesday when we're recording this, but what's it been like? It's just back to work. I think we spend very little time actually digesting the earnings. I mean, we know them ahead of time. So pretty much that same day, we're back to work, working on what's the next product we're shipping. You know, now we're towards the end of the year. So we're finalizing the product roadmap and the financial plan for next year.

15:47So back to business, you know, and we've got a product event coming up in early December, just in a couple of weeks. So kicking, that's starting to kick into high gear. I think where we'd like to start, though, is prediction markets, because it's something that everyone's talking about. I think a lot of people are starting to experience it for the first time through the context of sports betting. But elections, I was at Cal Shea HQ in New York with Tarek last week for the New York mayoral race, watching them, the dashboards kind of live and seeing how that was playing out on prediction markets.

16:23It was really interesting to see how early everything was getting called and how definitively it was getting called before traditional media. And I know you have a lot of thoughts about prediction markets and how to relate to the future of media. But for people who are new to this idea of prediction markets, can you just kind of take a step back and help us understand why you think the world needs this? Why this is a I've heard you call it a new asset class. Is that right? Yeah, it's definitely a new asset class. They're also, I've called them truth machines. They're actually a mechanism for discovering truth when you're talking about the future.

17:01And what I mean by that is it's not, there's all sorts of times where we want to know what the likelihood of something happening is. presidential election probably the best example? What's the likelihood that, you know, Trump or Harris would have won the election? The New York City mayor was a recent one. What's the likelihood that, you know, AI will achieve superhuman performance? We have all these questions. And, you know, this is a mechanism where it's not a guess, it's not a poll, but it's a real price set by market actors with real skin in the game. And as you've pointed out, they've turned out to be pretty remarkably accurate, especially when compared against alternatives, which are just opinions or polls.

17:53And I think the reason this is needed is there's so much information out there right now. I mean, it's easy to create content and to share one's opinion on the internet. uh social media has enabled that at large scale and you're just flooded with content flooded with opinions and it's become much more difficult to actually sort out what's reliable and what's not back you know 30 to 40 years ago you used to have walter cronkite in the cbs evening news and you basically knew that if walter cronkite was telling you something that not only should you believe it, but everyone else around you was probably watching it and would believe it as well.

18:40And now that sort of like uniformity of shared belief and opinion is gone. And I think prediction markets are a digital and financial answer to that. It's kind of like social media and financial markets coming together to give you really reliable forecasts about the future. I think as a trading product, it's interesting because a lot of people talk about it as a trading product and you get these questions about, well, is it just gambling? Is it trading? But what you have is the traders are actually creating the information and the information is digestible by a much wider audience. So actually, the vast majority of the people that are touched by prediction markets are those that just want the information.

19:32And the folks that are trading and generating that information and doing the work are a minority of the participants. And I think that's what makes it super interesting because the traders are actually creating this ecosystem, which has much broader mass market value and appeal. I want to know what Ellis thinks about this. I have a lot of things that I love about the idea of prediction markets and some questions. But Ellis, what do you make of this?

19:59Ellis:I have a lot of questions. But first, I'm just so fascinated in this idea of accuracy. Why would they be accurate? I realize the incentives are there, but why are they accurate, would you say, if they're kind of taking the temperature of what people think? Well, it's empirically demonstrated. I think there have been studies put out there that, the accuracy is quite high, even one month before the event closing date. So obviously, as you get closer, the accuracy typically improves. But what surprised me was, I saw some numbers that 90 % of the time they get it right, even if you look one month before the closing of the event, which frankly surprised me, the degree to which they're accurate.

20:51I think that they're accurate for many reasons, probably the most important of which is people are actually putting money on onto, you know, the informed decision and the trade. And so if you're putting money on something, it indicates that you have you don't just care about it. You're not being flippant. You're not answering a poll. But but that's probably the best expression of belief that I can come up with, at least. My skepticist hat is that I don't know who's on the other side of the trade. If I could see who was making all of these bets, I think I would trust it more. I mean, I trust the results.

21:34I mean, you're right. The majority of what I've seen, especially in the context of elections, is they do call it really early. I mean, I remember at Kalshi when I showed up, there was a CBS crew there and they had just called a race and then Kalshi had called it like an hour before. And that's pretty common. And so, you know, you see the results. But at the same time, just my journalist hat is, am I getting like fleeced here somehow? Like, is there someone making money on this other side that has information that I don't? because this does feel relatively unregulated, right? There's not like SEC oversight.

22:08Is there of insider trading or even a concept of insider trading? Because like as a journalist, I sometimes get non-public material information or report it about companies, right? Like when is the next Gemini model coming, right? There could be a prediction market for that. If I get it confirmed and I report it, I could make a lot of money theoretically. I haven't looked into this. I haven't done it. I'm not saying I would, but I'm just saying it feels like this is a wild west that doesn't have any regulation. And I'm wondering how you feel about that. Well, it's not exactly the Wild West. I mean, these are CFTC federally regulated products.

22:46It is a new product. So there's a lot of questions that I think as an industry, we have to figure out. But, you know, it's more often compared to sportsbook on the sports side. And I wouldn't say that the sportsbooks haven't exactly figured out either. And there's a lot of advantages to it being brought into a federally regulated realm because, you know, we have the machinery to do market surveillance, to do transaction monitoring. I mean, there's lots of stuff that you have to do when you're monitoring securities transactions. There's pipelines for reporting. So in my opinion, the best companies that are set up to do this are financial services companies that or the stakes are so high that they've we've had to build machinery to monitor transactions and to look out for market integrity over many decades.

23:39I was looking through your app

23:40Ellis:store screenshots and I believe that the prediction markets for some sports betting is like the very first screenshot at this point. How do you kind of prioritize the product development internally, you know, between something like this and then you've also got these products for like working on your IRA or something like that. How do you focus your internal team on where things are heading? So those feel like two pretty different things. Yeah. I mean, those are under sort of separate teams. So it's not an exact trade-off. I mean, we have to worry about prioritization and trade-offs on a business level.

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24:18And that's what I spend a lot of my time thinking about.

24:21Ellis:Just even like the vision for the company. Those feel like different paths conventionally, I would say. Well, the vision for the company is to become your financial super app. And what we mean by that is, you know, for a long time, Robinhood was people's secondary financial account. Right. But so I would say it probably does fit into the secondary financial account vision. but we don't want to just be your secondary financial account. We want to be your primary and secondary. So we believe that Robinhood can be the place where all of your assets and all of your dollars are held and we can process all financial transactions.

25:02And what we've seen is that as we add new products, a lot of times engagement and usage of our existing products increases. So when we launched retirement, for example, there's a big question internally about whether retirement was going to cannibalize our trading business. And the argument makes some sense theoretically, right? Some people have a certain amount of money. If you believe that money's going into Robinhood and maybe before it was going into the individual brokerage account. Now, if half of it goes into the retirement account, maybe we would end up hurting ourselves because it would now be going to a place where we would monetize it less.

25:52But actually, that didn't end up happening. And what we saw was that the folks that were using retirement actually increased their activity in their individual brokerage accounts. They used us more because it started clicking in their heads that this is now my financial account. I do all of my finances here. We saw a similar effect with the credit card. When someone became a primary gold card user with a credit card, we saw a positive impact to brokerage. And again, same reason. I'm a gold member. I'm doing everything with Robinhood. Let me look around and see if my gold membership actually gets me any other benefits.

26:32And if those other products are good, I'll give Robinhood a fair shake and probably first shot at my business.

26:40Ellis:I think when you've spent as long and as much time as you have on trying to build trust as you built all these things over time, I think it makes a lot of sense that that aggregate value would be increased. The customer's consideration for each new product would be higher than it would have been had it would have been a separate app. But I saw an ad today in the Wall Street Journal that said, if you're looking for a broker that's not also your bookie. We invite you to try public. A different perspective on maybe some of the conflicts from the producer of this product point of view. Do you have any response to that?

27:15Yeah, that's a funny one. One of the differences between traditional sports betting and prediction markets is that the trades are happening on an exchange with buyers and sellers. And so there's no house that is incentivized to have customers lose, right? So that's sort of the retort to the specific bookie comment. The other thing is a lot of these brokers, you have to understand there's a competitive marketplace here and not everyone can match our product velocity and how we serve our customers. And obviously, the business has been going very well, not just prediction markets, but, you know, last quarter, we had record net deposits into the platform.

28:00Retirement accounts have just been on a huge influx of assets, 25 billion plus. Gold card had half a million plus cardholders. So the ecosystem as a whole is very, very strong. Now, prediction markets are the fastest growing business we've ever had. And I think we've seen these criticism before, but what's happening under the hood is our competitors are working as hard as possible to like replicate this. I mean, I think that company was making a lot of hay about how company, how, you know, retail shouldn't be trading options. And they were kind of against it. And then, of course, until they launched it, until they launched options trading.

28:45Ellis:Classic comms tactic. And now they're incentivizing by giving you contract rebates and things like that. So I think this is just people have their interests. If I was in their position, I'd probably try to have some kind of media strategy that stems the tide and prevents them from losing customers. and I do think there's a legitimate, like some customers just don't like to see it and some customers don't like all the products we offer. So there's a legitimate challenge that we have as we add more products. How do we make the experience cohesive and how do we make sure that we only show to customers what they want to see?

29:36And I think that's going to push us towards solving some really interesting challenges with personalization and machine learning and making sure that actually your Robinhood experience is what you want it to be. And we're giving you the products that you're most suitable for and that you want to engage with. And I think we're in the early days of that. There's a lot more to do there. I think on the last earnings, you said that the prediction business in October was bigger for you all than the whole last quarter combined. And it would have been doubling quarter over quarter. So what is driving this?

30:13Is it mostly sports? Is this just speed running all the sports betting companies? Or what is it really fundamentally? I mean, sports is a big chunk of it for sure, but we're also seeing engagement across in non-sports categories. For a while, our prediction markets business was like sports only. And we recently started rolling out to other categories like economics, technology, politics. Now we have over a thousand contracts. And one of the things we believe is that the non-sports landscape is going to evolve very, very rapidly. And there's really interesting things that you'll be able to do that haven't been built yet.

30:55But yeah, sports has been a huge driver. Also, anytime we roll out a new product, it takes time for customers to understand it. A lot of people have never heard of prediction markets. it's a little bit more technical and arcane. And, you know, the dynamics are different than what they're used to with traditional sports books. So as they become familiar with it, as there's more events that they hear about, as we get a little bit better at incorporating it and integrating it into the product experience, which I think there's a lot of room for us to improve even further, we see growth. So, and I think there's tailwinds as well.

31:37I don't think that there's so many ways we can continue to improve it and make it more useful and better. Look at you. You're a veteran public CEO already. Tailwinds. You got all the words. I love the word tailwinds, actually. That's, I think I picked that up from my CFO. It's like, it's a romantic. It's like you're a sailor out at sea, you know? Yeah.

31:59Ellis:Any particular contracts you hope to see personally in the near future? I'm really interested in contracts that are more personalized. And what I mean by that is not that, you know, you'll be trading a contract on Alex's status or whatnot, but really that, you know, let's say you were concerned about flood or fire risk in your primary residence. I mean, maybe you submit some information about yourself to a transparent market and you get a real-time price for market makers. And I think you can imagine that that could be disruptive to the insurance industry, right? There's no reason why I have to pick up the phone and have these giant companies pricing my risk in an opaque way when the entire financial market with all of its liquidity and everyone plugged in can kind of do that.

32:59I mean, regulators are going to come crashing in on this if it gets to that level, don't you think? Well, I think you already see it with weather contracts, precipitation. You have it sort of in a generalized sense. There's fire contracts, wildlife. That's the whole purpose. That's how this industry started, right, is people hedging their risk. Now, why does it have to be only available to farmers and people running large institutions when individuals would like to have certain risks that they're legally required to hedge in some cases? And so, yeah, not to say that there's not going to be stakeholders that are going to fight prediction markets.

33:42You're already seeing it. But I think the power and the efficiency is just undeniable. What you were saying about farmers and hedge funds and stuff having access to this already made me think about, I wonder if this is something you have felt leading the company is you often get criticized, I think, for, you know, quote unquote gamification or bringing these things to the masses that potentially have negative externalities or could get people down a bad path if they get too levered or whatever. And then frequently, I think the other side of it that I hear from you and others is also, well, look, like this, this was already available, but it was for a select few.

34:22And so kind of, it seems like the mission you've had since the beginning is democratizing. I mean, I know that's been, that was the thing that you would say, but like the prediction markets idea is, I think taking what, yeah, farmers, hedge funds, what they already do and bring it to everyone. And that is disruption in the classic sense. And it has positives and negatives to it. No, I mean, I'm sure you're also thinking about like, yeah, there are going to be unforeseen externalities of this at scale. Right. Yeah. And by the way, there's no leverage in our prediction markets currently. So they're fully cash collateralized.

34:58It's a longstanding criticism of every financial market that they're speculators. But I think, I mean, when you look at the futures markets, when they became accessible to retail several decades ago, it was the same thing. You know, people were trading grain and oil and orange juice futures and pork bellies. And, you know, there were speculators in there and a lot of people had concerns about that. Every financial market had speculation. But I think the thing most people don't understand is speculation is actually an important part about it's necessary for the functioning of these markets. You can't just have people hedging.

35:43You can't just have arbitrage. Even if you read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, one of the seminal books of value investing, he talks about how speculation is actually integral to the proper functioning. So I don't think we can get rid of it. Now, I don't think everyone should be speculating and certainly not with a huge chunk of their capital, but we believe in markets. And so I think this activity is actually crucial to the proper functioning of all of the markets. Would you ever bake that idea into the products where Robinhood says, hey, like, you can do this, but just FYI, you're about to put 40 % of your portfolio in something that's a little YOLO.

36:25Like, could you guide people more that way? We actually do a little bit. I mean, for example, when you have a leveraged ETF or, you know, a similar high risk instrument, we let people know, you know, that this is something that's leveraged. It's not for long-term holding. We also, you know, indicate if something's like gotten to a point of large volatility, like we give those little alerts. If a company is bankrupt, you know, or has filed bankruptcy. So there's examples where we definitely let customers know. I think it's also a delicate balance because if you're an active trader and you know what you're doing, we don't want to put so many frictions in your way because then you'll just get annoyed and start using the products of our competitors that don't do those things.

37:23The state of Massachusetts was like historically very protectionist about this stuff. So I don't know if you guys remember, there's a story about how they banned their citizens from participating in the Apple IPO in the 80s. you know at the time it was like oh this is risky most people shouldn't be and i think in general it was from a good place but then imagine multiple decades later this is like an example of it's sort of a negative example of nanny statism gone gone completely wrong i mean you've prevented people from like exercising their point of view and in hindsight making a lot of money.

38:05Ellis:Yeah, I think that's true. But I also feel like there's a big difference between like an outright ban and like those commercials you see on TV that say we're going to give you$500 for free if you bet five that know that when someone shows up, they're probably going to lose it because that's the only way that they can make that offer. You know, how do you think about that stuff when you see it on TV or maybe even when PMs come to you with with ideas that, you know, would work, but might feel a little icky. I think we're generally pretty conservative about those things. I mean, obviously there's always a gray area where there's discussions, but we benefit, I mean, if you look at Robinhood as a business, our revenue scales with assets under custody.

38:52And so the healthy customer relationship for us is someone whose account balance monotonically increases over time. So, you know, it doesn't bother us if you're allocating some of your portfolio and you're trading options, you're trading futures, you're trading prediction markets. But we're actually quite aligned with our users in the sense that like we benefit as their account balances grow and their relationship deepens with us. And that's kind of how we've been successful. If you look at asset growth on the platform over time, it's not a churn and burn business where people put money in and then their account goes to zero.

39:34Like this is a compounding business.

39:38Ellis:I'm just I'm a product person. I'm just so fascinated by, you know, this kind of conceptual idea that maybe you bring some money into a product and there's two buttons there. One is to put it in retirement and one is to put it on the Packers. You know, if times are ever tough, you could see a world where someone comes and says, hey, let's make the Packers button a little shinier or a little bigger or make it number one in the rankings. And that's what I think brings some interesting decisions being a platform that includes both. So, yeah, your job is not an easy one. Yeah. And I think that historically, it's been very difficult for a regulated business to actually make recommendations at that level, right?

40:23Because the areas where you could make recommendations are pretty circumscribed. You know, there are all kinds of things govern making a recommendation to open a new account or how much money you should invest in a certain thing. And our solution to that is not to get away from it. We make recommendations, but they have to be in specific areas where we make it clear that, yeah, we're telling you we have a fiduciary duty. We think that, you know, you should invest in this. Support for this show is brought to you by Solonis. Ever feel like you're being told to wave this big magic AI wand and everything will just be better?

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41:36AI needs context. Solonis provides it. Learn more about how the context model gives enterprise AI operational clarity at C-E-L-O-N-I-S dot com slash context. When I got a new car, I thought my insurance premium would increase and empty my bank account. Like if Fetween won the lottery.

41:54Ellis:I've invested most of my winnings in chicken tenders because they're bomb. But bro, I bought a house and it's sick, bro. I'm thinking the floor is going to be all trampoline, bro. With the helipad on the roof. The contractor said it's structurally unsound. They're just being babies. But switching to Geico saved me hundreds, so my bank account is safe. It feels good to save some hard-earned cash. It feels good to Geico. Another thing I know you're thinking a lot about is tokenization. and I know this is a big priority. You've tokenized, quote unquote, a lot of companies so far. You want to do more.

42:29As someone who is even, you know, versed in these topics, it's a little heady for me to understand why the world needs this. And I know you're, you know, crypto is a big thing for Robinhood. It's a huge business. This has, you know, synergy with that. But explain it to me like I'm a middle schooler. Like, why in the world are you trying to tokenize companies? Yeah, on public companies outside the U.S., it's quite difficult to get access to public companies. A lot of people don't have a traditional broker that's available in their country, but they do have crypto firms. So crypto firms have become the gateway to get access to U.S.

43:10dollars. I think in the same way, tokenized stocks will become the gateway to U.S. assets. There might not be a local broker that is low cost, but if you get the stocks on the blockchain, you get certain benefits like 24-7, instant settlement, better economics on stock loan and borrow. But the main thing outside the US is actually just access. Now, within the US, it's a little bit more incremental. And so I think adoption will be slower. I think tokenization of public stocks will be an ex-US phenomenon first, as we've demonstrated. I mean, we've gone live with it, ex-US, right? But in the US, it's a little bit more incremental.

43:54You're going from 24-5 trading, which we offer, to 24-7. You've got instant settlement, which means that a GameStop situation can never happen again. Oh, thank God. That's a nice benefit for me, maybe less for most people. I think stock loan and borrow could be disrupted. It's a very opaque lending and borrowing market for shares that I think could be improved. And you have some benefits of portability and self-custody, which, and this is maybe slightly contrary interest to say, but you can make it so that your stocks can just easily leave your brokerage. You're not going to be dependent on a broker.

44:35you can transact and trade tokenized stocks as long as the blockchain is up. So private companies are a different story. Very hard to get access to even in the US. And there's problems because even if you're accredited and you want to transact in private shares, your options for doing that in a simple and easy way are pretty manual. And the alternative trading systems that exist that try to provide real-time matching generally don't have very much liquidity. So you could be waiting quite a while before you could make a trade. And when you do make that trade, it's kind of a manual process where you're sending DocuSigns to people if you guys have done that.

45:22Not a ton of liquidity in the secondary market unless it's like a really hot name. Yeah, but if you plug it into crypto technology, and I wrote a piece on this in the Washington Post a little bit under a year ago, you solve the liquidity problem because you're plugging this into a network, a global network where, you know, you've seen meme coins get billions of dollars of liquidity within a few hours. And I think blockchains have shown that they've been very effective at directing and aggregating liquidity to assets that people actually want. So you don't have to build a whole exchange from the ground up.

46:00You can leverage the existing usage and liquidity on crypto. That makes sense. But I've heard you also say that there's this digital nimbyism going on with companies to this idea when you go to them and you're like, let me put your stock on the blockchain. They're not huge fans. You first, I think, pitched this with OpenAI and SpaceX. I don't think they took to it too well. Do you find that you're still meeting a lot of resistance here, or are you optimistic? Where are you at now? I think eventually it'll happen, and we're looking to accelerate it. But, I mean, we know which way this is going to go.

46:35It's very, very clear. We have a product, IPO Access, which we launched for our own IPO in 2021. and our own IPO was for its size, the largest retail allocation at the time at north of 20%. And we had some other companies use it as well who are willing to go on the journey with us. But by and large in 2021, when I had this product, it took a lot of cajoling and a lot of just like asking for favors to make sure retail gets access to these IPOs. When we would get the allocations, they were pretty small. It was like, okay, we'll do Vlad a favor. We'll give him 1 % of the IPO, 2%, whatever. But there was skepticism.

47:24Executives were hearing from their bankers that it was a bit of a strange thing. And if you're an executive taking your company public, most of the time, it's just, let me get through this so I can focus on my business. I don't necessarily want to be an innovator in providing retail access to these instruments. But I do want to be an innovator in that. So I worked very hard and I pounded the pavement. We got a good IPO suite. And then the market basically shut for a couple of years. And an interesting thing happened in the interim. I think it became more obvious to the public. It had been obvious to me for a long time, but more obvious to the entire startup community that public companies that have retail fan bases and followings get rewarded.

48:16In some cases, we're pretty, pretty high multiples, right? You see Palantir, you see some others. And now when the IPO window opened, basically everyone's coming to us and asking us if they could have feedback on their retail strategy. How can they engage retail more? and a large number of the IPOs that have been on consequence have come to us and actually listed on the platform and in some cases given retail bigger and bigger chunks. And now they're talking about it. So I think the same thing is going to happen with private markets as well. We're kind of in the phase where it's a new thing. We're kind of the only ones that are trying to do it.

48:54Nobody really wants to innovate when they're raising a financing ground, but the setup is very similar to IPO access. Like it's the same set of constraints. And my prediction is within the next two years, it'll probably be faster than IPO access, probably even one year, it'll be normalized and you'll have the best companies available to retail because they'll just see that having that retail fan base and the supporters as early as possible is going to be immensely valuable. You look at AI in particular, where are the fans? I mean, it's a very popular technology. Adoption is very, very quick, but who's defending the AI companies in public?

49:41It's basically their investors and the community of AI researchers. And the general perception, I would say, if you're looking at what's happening in the media and even in public discourse, there's a lot of fear and uncertainty and it leans negative. I think there was an article talking about how this is like, at the same time, the fastest adopted technology, but also the least popular. Right. And, and, and that's, I don't think that's a healthy combination because I think that if the public is against AI, um, it's gonna, it's gonna, it's gonna be a headwind, not a tailwind for the industry and for innovation.

50:23And I think the best way is to get people owning this stuff and not just have it go to the high net worth individuals and the institutions, but get it distributed to regular people. I think it will be good for the technology. And I think my opinion will at some point hopefully be a little bit more widespread.

50:44Ellis:You're working on a lot of things right now. I saw you launch 10 new product suites in 2025. Curious how you're running the company differently now than previously. I feel like I heard that you don't have any one-on-ones. You have over 20 direct reports. How do you think about all that? I've got a great, great GMs, a great team. The core Robinhood team, the people that are running the company, making decisions, A lot of them have been around for a long time and gone through our share of crises together, right? Not just GameStop, but also the IPO and the subsequent market correction, the crypto market and the SVB crisis.

51:30So we've gone through some ups and downs. Yeah, how's your blood pressure?

51:36Ellis:That's a lot of crises right there. I stopped tracking it you know for a while I was very I don't know if you guys felt the same I was wearing my Apple watch and I was thinking about all this health stuff and now I've gone very mechanical I'm like I don't want to see it um yeah I I kind of know when I haven't slept well so I don't I don't need the device I'm becoming more of a Luddite as I as uh as we as we keep rolling out more business lines but yeah that that's really the short of it I think I have a great team around me. I think we're working well together. Culture is something you evolve over time when you make mistakes and you fix them.

52:16And I think we iterate pretty quickly. I think you have to, but we're sort of not apologetic about being a company that wants to move fast and actually innovate. Yeah, you've seen some crazy lows and it feels like right now you're at this insane high i think you're the second top performing stock this year you're on this product terror i know i wish we did the interview a week ago um you were the top well you well there's still weeks left in the year um but do those lows let's recheck it it might have changed a i don't know recheck it um and also on the last earnings call i caught the joke about your you had like a co award that kicked in because the stock gains and i think your salary is going back to like 40k or something is that right yeah but pretty much i think this was a un um not not a lot of people caught this but i had some grants back in 2019 we were a private company that had share price targets of around 50 and 100 and you know a year ago the stock was trading at i think in the 20s and then of course with the tariffs it dipped back down uh so i i don't think that we had forecasted all of those rewards hitting but here we are there you are so that that was the cause for our our mix our miss on tax expense and employee bonus rule was what's your bonus okay cool um how do you keep yourself grounded in a moment like this especially when you're going into next year um you are full-on founder mode uh this i'm sure your board uh trust you immensely after this year, not that they didn't before, but how do you ground yourself and keep looking around the corner for what could disrupt you, so to speak?

54:02Look, we have to remind ourselves to not get complacent. I try to remind our employees of that as well. And I'm saying it to the employees as much as I'm saying it to myself, right? Like, I know inevitably I've been through so many of these cycles. There's going to be a time in the future where everyone thinks we're shitheads again um uh hopefully less acute than times before and generally i believe the trend will be up but you know it's it's always cyclical to some degree and um that's just what we sign up for who didn't want to talk to you before who wants to talk to you now let's name some names i mean honestly i i don't know no i didn't get too many podcast best invites back in 2020.

54:45That's fair. That's fair. Well, we're glad to have you on. We met over a year ago. I don't remember where the stock price was, but it was early on in the predictions markets thing. It was before the US really opened up. Before the election. Yeah, before that. And you were talking to me about it in the context of the media and how you were thinking about the media, because you have a media arm, you're doing a social network now. And I hadn't really heard of it that way. And actually, yeah, we should we should actually just go to that. The social network thing, I think Ellis and I are both fascinated by.

55:16Me as someone, well, we both covered social networks and then Ellis worked at one. But you're rolling this out. It's not fully out. But are you really taking on finance Twitter here? Is this the goal? You're going to go toe-to-toe with Elon on this? I mean, maybe. It's not the way we think of it. But I think we have certain advantages. We have a highly engaged customer base that's rather large. We have the ability to build great technology. I mean, you might have seen where we've been live streaming our product events and our earnings with live video in the app. And we've been able to include interactivity as well.

55:58So we could run polls and different sort of like UI elements. I thought you were going to say the users could

56:06Ellis:slime you or something if they felt like it. Next earnings. If they felt like it was too boring, yeah. We should add that. But Opendoor last week actually live streamed their own earnings in our app. So we've been working on building this earnings information and data ecosystem. You can ask shareholder Q &A. And I think the interesting opportunity for us is actually becoming the place where the ideas are generated and shared. And can we be the first place where you actually post something interesting that has like financial or business or economic content? And I think the advantage that we have is because we're going to be where the social network is and the transaction, we can solve the verification problem to make sure people aren't, you know, faking their trades and posting inaccurate information.

57:03And the more assets we add, so now with prediction markets and options and futures and equities, you can imagine the stronger kind of that network effect would be. Like you could actually get diverse content. It's interesting. Lots of opinions. And can we become the place where you actually post first? I think that's going to be the challenge but if we get that I think it could be the best source of business and financial content out there you know if this works you are going to get the call from Elon and he's going to go what the hell are you doing you know that's coming I don't know that that's the case necessarily and I think to some degree a lot of the big social media products are looking to add finance in there so rather than us just sitting around and getting disrupted did.

57:56Can we try to figure out what what the best way is to integrate that into into one experience?

58:02Ellis:It's definitely a compelling package with social 24 seven markets. I think I saw the top replies to one of your tweets about, you know, these kind of always on markets idea was a bunch of memes of people looking very tired, like I'm tired, boss. You know, we all know this is fun, but it's also addictive. I mean, I don't even bet any money on fantasy sports, but I had to stop because every single time I was on the toilet or up late at night and couldn't sleep, I'm looking at it. I wonder what advice do you give to young people today to kind of come up with these new norms and modulate that behavior?

58:38Ellis:Because it is fun. You feel like there's always more to learn, whether it's with stocks or the prediction markets. Yeah, I think it's very, very tough for a young person now when you have so much, you're bombarded by digital stimulus. And, you know, I recognize that I have a mobile app that people use, but I actually legitimately don't think, I mean, if my kids spent more time investing and learning how to trade on Robinhood, I don't think I would feel as bad because, you know, it's just, there's social media. Yeah, there's YouTube, there's Minecraft and... Better than Shrimp Jesus, Doomscroll, what we're saying?

59:23Yeah, I just think that it is a problem and it's something that I worry about. And I'd like to contribute to making it better for sure and eventually scale that. But yeah, if I had to think about like one personal cause that I legitimately really am worried about, it's just like digital addiction so uh i don't have all the answers but you said yeah you said as robin hood scales you find yourself wanting to be more of a luddite i mean that's interesting right a lot of the founders who run these digital products and these platforms you talk to them and it's like you you get drained yourself right it's a lot yeah i think it's unnatural to be in front of a screen for so much of of your life um and you know when the smartphone came out it was just the superpower, right?

1:00:13The people that were good at using smartphones, I think had an advantage, but now, you know, we're spending so much of our time on smartphones that it's become a tax. It's almost like, you know, if the person next to you is, is using it more, you're at a disadvantage. And, and I think it's unfortunate that technology kind of, uh, uh, evolves in, in that direction. Well, maybe we can end it here. You're, you're live streaming your earnings. You just did it at the Chase Center. I imagine these will get more ornate each earnings. I'm expecting more spectacle. Are we going to get a pre-earnings walk-in where you've got the designer bag, the jacket, you know, the shades?

1:00:54Final Countdown is playing. Yeah, Final Countdown is playing. Are we going to, is that coming or are we just going to do post-game? You know, the inspiration for earnings was an NBA post-game interview. Right. Where we thought to ourselves, okay, after, Let's say the analogy is like game three of the NBA finals. It's not over. It's not game seven. It's actually you're somewhere near the beginning of the series. But if you have a good quarter, it's sort of like interviewing LeBron after the Lakers win. He's got a little bit of swagger. He's thanking his teammates. He's looking good. Maybe he's wearing his shades.

1:01:32If the Lakers lose and you're interviewing LeBron, he's got the towel on his head. Maybe he throws some shade on his teammates. But it's informative and entertaining either way. So if they could make it so that an NBA postgame interview is worth watching, we should be able to make earnings worth watching as well.

1:01:53Ellis:I mean, it's not easy, is it? It's like, how much can you really say that you aren't prepared to say? Well, I mean, we've been able to do quite a lot. Turns out quite a lot. And it's been baby steps. Like we went on video and now I'm at the point where if I'm reading a script, it's hard for me to not sound robotic. It's hard enough even without a script, to be honest. So I operate best when I just have like an idea of what I want to talk about. But the rest of it is kind of extemporaneous in a sense. So I think we've been able to make it more engaging while still obviously providing the necessary information and communicating the results well.

1:02:35And hopefully it leads to an investing public that's more informed because they're actually watching and listening to the earnings calls. And I think in order to do that, we have to make them a little bit more engaging. It's a nice microcosm of the Robinhood product strategy as well. It's like, you know, yeah, if people are more interested in this stuff, they'll engage with it more. And I think in the same way, if people are more interested in their finances, they'll engage with their finances more and you'll get great outcomes as a result. Well, next time, if you walk out with the shades on in the pre-game walkout, we'll know that it was a good quarter, right?

1:03:12Well, I've tried the shades thing. Actually, if you saw my France event, I wore shades. Now, there was a debate about this. And, you know, the folks that I was working with were like, don't do the shades. if people can't see your eyes, it's untrustworthy and they're not going to like it. And the funny thing was after that event, if you see the Twitter photos, the ones where I'm wearing shades, people are like, oh, he looks like a scammer. And then, you know, the ones without the shades were were fine. So, okay. That's bad advice. I learned that it's actually true. Yeah. Shades are no good. Shades are no good.

1:03:50Vlad, really appreciate this. Thanks so much. Yeah. Always a pleasure. Thanks to Vlad for coming on the show.

1:03:57Ellis:We're new here, so please follow, like, subscribe. You know what to do on all your favorite platforms of choice at AccessPod, including YouTube, where we have full video of the show and time codes so you could jump around. If you like this episode, please leave a five-star review or thumbs up and share it with a friend. It means a lot. You can find me at Hamburger on Twitter and at Meaning.Company. You can find my newsletter at Sources.News. Access is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producer is Shiraz Dume. See you next week. Bye. You always got to do the bye, don't you?

1:04:54You need the Salonis Context Model, which gives AI operational clarity so agents can reason correctly, decide sensibly, and act reliably. AI needs context. Salonis provides it. Meet the model at C-E-L-O-N-I-S dot com slash context. We all do it. You have a night for yourself, but don't like the sound of the silence.

1:05:15Ellis:So you turn on the TV just for the ambiance. It's a little trick that helps you feel like you've got company and aren't alone. and other insurers, well, they may make you feel alone. But when you switch to GEICO, you've got claims reps available around the clock. So whenever you need, you'll have people around to help. And let's turn on the washing machine, just for good measure. Wow, isn't that soothing? It feels good to have support. It feels good to GEICO.

From the publisher

Ellis and Alex chat about their first live pod recording in San Francisco, grandma-centric design, and how Alex finds new sources. Then, they're joined by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev to discuss the rise of prediction markets, juggling priorities as a public CEO, and much more.

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