EFL Extra: Play-off final predictions

0:04Hello and welcome to the Game Football Podcast from the Times and Sunday Times. This is our EFL Extra Show with me, Tom Clarke, and the former Football League legend Gregor Robertson. And we are back to talk about the EFL Playoff Finals. Gregor, I honestly didn't think this show would ever come around. I've been promising listeners all week. We've done two extra shows already, as well as the regular shows. We've had the busiest week of football news that I can ever remember in my career, but we've got three huge games to come. Just before we get there, I mentioned this on Thursday's show and I read out your intro, just how special was it for you to be there with your adopted son, John McGinn, to watch him lift that Europa League trophy?

0:45Gregor Robertson: That was a great moment for McGinn and for Aston Villa. And to tie it back to the Football League, which is what we're here to talk about, McGinn memorably scored what turned out to be the winning goal for Aston Villa which was only seven years ago in the playoff final and yeah he just sort of represents Villa's rise and he's been there the big game player and the big moments throughout their rise and he was there again and lifted the trophy so a great moment for John McGinn whose journey in English football started in the championship Yeah lovely link mate lovely beautiful stuff of course the championship playoff final is Middlesbrough against Hull City but it's been completely overshadowed until this very moment by the madness of Spygate we discussed this as well on Thursday's show with Alison and the guys but just your very quick reaction before we talk about the actual football one do you think the punishment is appropriate as shocking and as striking as it was and two why do you think it leaves Southampton now going forward I mean yes it's been an absolutely wild story do I think it's appropriate maybe both things can be true I feel it is like as severe as it could possibly be but I don't know what else it could have been so I think it probably was that's my answer in a roundabout way is yes because when you kind of you read more detail about you know the EFL sort of findings in their report it was totally you know premeditated people make mistakes in life you know Tonde Eckhart will reflect on this mistake as one of his biggest but it was the premeditated nature of it all and the way that they used a young intern and put pressure on him to do something that it seems like he had suspicions were not the right thing to be doing.

2:36Gregor Robertson: It's put Southampton in a really, really challenging position now decimated their relationship with much of their own support and makes Eckhart's position seem untenable going forward. So a remarkable, remarkable story. Actually, a remarkable impact it could well have on the two teams contesting the final two. It might not be, you know, all the sort of implications of Spygate affected those teams just as much. So let's get on to talking about the football. Yeah, absolutely. And that is the theme of Martin Hardy's preview. I've been speaking to him this morning and he was kind of like, you know, where do we go with this?

3:11And I was like, you have to talk about Middlesbrough and Hull. There's an actual football match that's going on here. these two teams going for this£200 million game as it's so often called just very quickly

3:20Gregor Robertson: but the psychology of it is going to be fascinating because Hull have been working to an idea of who they were playing in the final for so long and now it's been completely turned on its head and Middlesbrough you could even see I think in this as the second leg wore on of the semi-final how much that saga had taken out of them and you saw it in Kim Helberg's face and in his reaction in his post-match interview. So it's taken a huge toll on Middlesbrough as well. And you just wonder now whether it's like, whether they can, I don't know, rouse themselves after that or whether even it's a bit of a liberating feeling because this is like a free hit for them now.

4:01Gregor Robertson: It's fascinating. Yeah. I was going to ask you about that. You answered the question I was going to ask as a former player going into these games and having played in these moments yourself. but is there a kind of flip side as well of where you know before all this controversy you know listeners will go back and remember that we both I think on this podcast said Southampton were probably favourites for this playoff final I think when they beat Middlesbrough everyone was thinking oh crikey there we go I know a few Hall fans who are going oh I'm not sure I want to play Southampton it does change the game in a pure footballing sense doesn't it now you've got Middlesbrough who had a good season but were inconsistent at times and Hall who finishing six as we've said so often is one of the great achievements in the Football League pyramid this season so in for both teams psychologically maybe you're working out whether it's a free hit or whether it's difficult but in footballing terms it's a bit more of an even match isn't it with Southampton not being there yeah I mean like if we kind of zoom out for a bit despite all the things you said about Middlesbrough they lost Rob Edwards after 15 games then realised that they probably had an upgrade in Helberg and the football was scintillating to watch for huge swathes of the season but then in big big moments you think of the Coventry game that really kind of catalyzed Coventry's run towards the title just after Christmas maybe February time it was, games against Millwall and the playoff games against Saints, they've kind of fallen short in those big big moments and the way they sort of arrived into the playoffs as well, they were not in great shape.

5:32Gregor Robertson: They'll be missing Hayden Hackney. Will Hayden Hackney be fit? That's a huge, huge part of this conversation as well. And then Hull, as you say, this is just, it's a minor miracle really when you consider that like all the mistakes that Akronilo Chaly has made since he took over the club, some very expensive mistakes. They were under a transfer bar going to summer. They stayed up on goal difference last season and they've kind of confounded the statistics and the data throughout the season. They've got a team full of gnarly, being their done-it championships, journeymen, a lot of them, and a few match winners.

6:04Gregor Robertson: So very, very different teams, both coming into it. I would start off by saying those are probably a better team, but are they arriving in the final in better shape than Hull? That's a bigger question and I would say probably not. Yeah, just very quickly, I think before we get into some predictions and how we think it'll go out, as you hinted there, Hayden Hackney kind of might decide this final doesn't he? Both in terms of whether he's on the pitch or off the pitch. A fit Hayden Hackney starting makes Middlesbrough strong favourites doesn't it? Would you agree? Yeah, I mean he's the best player in the Championship by some distance and when he was missing they felt that profoundly so they've also lost Tommy Conway which is a big blow, he's been a big player for them such a powerful runner, that sort of inside left channel.

6:49Gregor Robertson: You'll miss the World Cup with Scotland too which has upset me a little bit. So, yeah, I mean, that's two big players. But if Hackney returns, my God, the boost that would give them going into the final would be enormous. As a neutral, I'm looking at this and this is nothing against Middlesbrough fans, but I kind of want Hull to win. I just think this is how this is a fitting kind of thing. I think I'll take that probably badly, Tom. How it ends. Yeah. You know, I just it just feels right to me somehow. And, you know, Jekirovic, who I've really warmed to this week, kind of following his comments in his press conferences, making jokes about I think we should go up automatically which you know listen a lot of Hall fans have been saying making jokes about how many tickets he's bought as well just tell us a little bit more about the job he's done and you mentioned the kind of ragtag bunch of ex-championship stalwarts that he's got there what can viewers expect because there'll be a lot of people tuning into this final as there always is but even more so now talked about Middlesbrough a lot Helberg fast-flowing football Hayden Hackney's a superstar in the making what could we expect from Hall do you think?

7:49Gregor Robertson: You're right. Jokirovic is a really fascinating, very funny guy as well. I spent a day with Hull before the FA Cup game against Chelsea and interviewed him and he was great, great value. A real character, learned most of his English watching Only Fools and Horses. He's got a kind of glint in his eye and you could tell he's created a really good environment and culture at that team and that club. And as I said, you know, it's got John Lundstrom, John Egan, Oli McBurnie. they're guys who've done it with Sheffield United been in the Championship for years then they've got match winners like Joffie Geldhart, Balumi even Kumas who came in on loan they've got some real match winners but what you will see if you're tuning in and you don't know much about Hull is they're happy to not have the ball, that's the difference but Middlesbrough will more than likely dominate the ball and although when Middlesbrough have been at their best they've played so quickly, so incisively really cut through the middle of the teams and Hackney's been a big part of that.

8:50Gregor Robertson: But you never see, I was thinking about this earlier, you never see that kind of sharp football at Wembley and particularly in the heat it's going to be this weekend. So you wonder how that's going to play into it and whether also Hull don't want to be chasing, you know, chasing around after Middlesbrough for the whole day in that kind of heat as well. But that is the balance. Middlesbrough will have more of the ball. Hull happy to let the other team have it, but they're great on the break and they've got match winners who like will produce a moment of magic. Yeah, well, it comes down to it then Gregor, the favourite moment on any podcast towards the end of the season, a prediction.

9:22Where do you think this is going? I'm going to go with Hull, just because I think Middlesbrough might be overawed, even if Hayden Hackney is fit enough to play, he won't be at his fittest, and he won't be necessarily as sharp as he might have been. I just think Hull, it's a great story. I'm going to back them to get over the line. I don't think it'll be a pretty game. Where do you think it's going?

9:42Gregor Robertson: I think Hull too. I think part of that is because the way they approach the playoffs at the semis against Millwall is really interesting too. They've also shipped a lot of goals over the course of the season. I mean, their games have not been dull. You know, they scored, I think they scored 70 and conceded 66. Yeah, exactly. Only a plus four. If you look at the rest of the goal difference in the top six, it's like plus 25, plus 26, Millwall plus 15, Ipswich plus 33, Coventry plus 52. They've been like much more fine margin games, but they shut up shop against Millwall and then in the second leg, they went for them.

10:18Gregor Robertson: And then they've managed to hold, they kind of held on, once they took the lead, they held on to what they had. You know, it feels like they've kind of maybe hit upon a new sort of formation too. They went to kind of three at the back for some of that game. So I'm going to lean towards Hull as well. And I think part of it is because of experience. They've got so many really experienced players at the level, been in these games before. And I think it would be a great story of Hullward to get promoted and get over the line. It certainly would, but caveats in there for Middlesbrough fans. I'm not ruling out a Hayden Hackney 25-yard, brilliant curler in the second half, just to change everything.

10:55Loads and loads still to talk about with League 1 and League 2. We're going to take a little break. We'll be back in just a second.

11:13Welcome back to the Game Football Podcast from the Times and Sunday Times. This is our EFL Extra Show with me, Tom Clark, and Gregor Robertson previewing the Football League playoff finals. Gregor, let's move into League One. And this is perhaps, I don't know, it's very easy to sound clever after the fact, but I think there's a good case for saying that we have basically been hinting that Stockport-Bolton would be the playoff final in League One since about December. I mean, obviously, listeners will say, hang on a minute, Tom, you were worried about Bolton catching Lincoln at some points. And yes, that was true.

11:42But listen, these two teams, in terms of their standing, their experience, their money spent, their managers who they've got in charge, when all said and done with the teams that finished in the playoffs, that kind of told in the semifinals, didn't it? Bolton getting past Bradford, Stockport getting past Stevenage. In both these games, you just looked at him and thought, these two teams are just cut above in every sense. And Bradford and Stevenage just couldn't quite get at them, could they?

12:11Gregor Robertson: Yeah, absolutely. They're the superior teams and I think there's very, very little between them too. Of all the playoff finals, this is the hardest to call because they, broadly speaking, they finished two points apart, scored roughly the same number of goals, 71 Stockport, 70 Bolton, only six difference in how many they conceded. if you look at a lot of the kind of underlying data, I'd say the only difference maybe spot on a little bit a little bit more loose and creative see a bit more of the ball but they're also a bit more erratic they have been a bit more erratic over the course of the season and what they've both also got are two bonafide match winners and wingers Amario Cozi, Adubre and Louis Barry who we've spoken about numerous times on this show it's his third loan spell at Stockport being there I think in League 2 and League 1 it's not really happened for him in the Championship when he went to Hull actually and to Sheffield United so he's gone back to Stockport and doing what he does best cuts in from the left and fires a ball into the far top corner and Kozy Odubry missed a chunk of the season with an injury, was back with a bang immediately deciding games and he was superb in the playoff semis as well so really exciting players there but I feel this could be quite a cagey one because as I say there's very little between them and it's just huge for both clubs because both clubs have been at death's door almost in the not too distant history and they're both on the rise very much, both got backing as you say both got really smart managers Stephen Schumacher and Dave Chaloner who's continued his record of never having finished outside the playoffs in what is it 15 or 16 full seasons as a manager now, going right down to the National League North so extraordinary career he's had and I think there's more to come really really hard to call though and I think this will be a cagey one Yeah I think it'll be really tight they're both very very equal teams I've seen both of them a couple of times this season I think it probably comes down to Louis Barry against Jack Bonham for this one I think Louis Barry the Stockport star Jack Bonham the Bolton goalkeeper he had a brilliant game when he played against Lincoln he was signed in January he had made some big saves against Bradford as well in that semi-final.

14:32A very, very good keeper experienced as well. I think he'll play a massive part for Bolton. But as you say, can Louis Barry turn it on? I agree with you. I think it'll go to extra time. It might even go to penalties. Again, my predictions, I'm siding on what I maybe feel, which is I'm going to go with Stockport. My dad has been pointing out that there's a nice symmetry if Stockport go down. Both Stockport and Lincoln were relegated out of the Football League at the same time, about many, many years ago. So Stockport even went down even further, as you say, and as their fans like to point out in comparison to Wrexham, only four years ago they were being promoted from the National League.

15:07So I'm going to go for Stockport just, but that's based on personal vibes more than anything. I think it'd be really tight. If you had to pick one, who would you go for?

15:15Gregor Robertson: God, it is hard. I think I'll just edge for Stockport as well, yeah. I feel like they were kind of robbed in last year's semi-final against Leighton Orient. Look, both teams have gone close as well. you know Bolton Bolton went close I think they've been in two League One playoffs in their seven years at the level a semi and a final so you know they've both been knocking on the door for a little while I'll go for Stockport just but I agree I think it could be a penalty decider The other caveat as well though is that you could easily have Stockport 2-0 up in this game and do not rule out Bolton Wanderers they have scored so many late goals this season both equalisers and winners so we can talk about Stockport and you might be listening to this and watching over the weekend and thinking hey Tom and Greg were right Stockport a 1-0 up with four minutes left do not rule out Bowling Wanderers when they're kicking it 2-1, it'll be really really tight this one One other thing as well, often set pieces could decide this and Ole Norwood has got an incredible delivery, he's very experienced, another one who's kind of been there and done it at higher levels too and his delivery and his set piece, that kind of weapon that they have could be decisive as well Yeah, into League 2 then Gregor and a very nice bit of kind of playoff simplicity here, we've got the top three who've already been promoted and now we've got fourth against 5th Salford City against Notts County.

16:31Unfortunately, both your former sides, Chesterfield and Grimsby, defeated. They were quite close to playoff semifinals, of course, in this one. But how do we think this... I mean, this final feels a little bit like the Salford City final, doesn't it? You know, Carl Robinson and Salford, they've been trying so hard for so long. You know, Salford were the Wrexham before Wrexham, weren't they? Trying to get up the pyramid, trying to get into League One. the weight feels very very much on Salford for this one do you think that'll help Notts County? How do you see it playing out?

17:04Gregor Robertson: I think this is the biggest although Hull and Borough is a clash of styles, this is the biggest clash of styles of the lot because Salford, I mean you think back to Carl Robinson's early days as a manager and he was the kind of, even at MK Dons he was one of the most, his team's always played the most expansive sort of progressive possession dominant football and you look at them now they're very very direct they can still play and they've got some big match winners in their team but they're a very direct team and Notts County by contrast are the kind of uber progressive side, there was a bit of a tittering in the summer if you remember when Martin Patterson replaced Stuart Maynard and there was that statement about the technical board but they've, you know and the kind of influence they were going to have almost seemed like it was undermining the manager's influence but they've just quietly gone about their business and they've had some really hugely important players in their team for a number of seasons now.

18:02Gregor Robertson: Alessandra Jatta has been an absolute force of nature for them. Tom Orpendown, one from Huddersfield has been a brilliant loan signing. Jodie Jones still kind of an assist king. But this is an absolute clash of styles. So Nott's County will definitely dominate the ball and Salford will be looking for those taking to get the ball in the box at every opportunity and Danu Doe up front who we remember missed that that sitter at Crawley in the final day that could have helped them avoid all this is still a very very big player for them Matty Young as well goalkeeper alone from Sunderland brilliant really really good young goalkeeper has been huge for them this season and last season as well there's been a bit of a change as well over the summer with Salford it's not all the class of 92 anymore we've still got Gary Neville and Beckham and some new very wealthy investors and yes they have got one of the biggest budgets in the league but it seems they turned a page a little bit last summer and they're still determined to rise up the league so very very hard one to call again but I think I might just plump for Notts County on this one Interesting, I'll mix it up given that we've both picked the same teams for the previous ones to give us a good chance of at least being right I think it's Salford year it feels like it, it's felt like it at various points Carl Robinson I saw some of the you know you see some of the team talks he was giving on the pitch during that semi-final you know he's so wound up it's a little bit like Mikel Arteta you know I've got to get this team over the line you know there are little sentimental reasons why I'd like it to be not to count see Jodie Jones who you mentioned there I saw him play against Lincoln for Coventry I thought he was one of the best young players I'd ever seen in the football league and he suffered a horrendous injury that potentially stopped him playing higher up the pyramid a brilliant player so I'd like to see him do well but it just feels like Salford's year to me it'll be really really tight so I'll go to go Salford to just at least mean we can cover the bases on that one so when Middlesbrough and Bolton get promoted from the other two finals we don't look like complete idiots at least we'll have got one right in this one Gregor Robertson thank you very much for joining me as always there you go listeners five episodes of the game podcast in this most crazy of weeks if there are any listeners out there who've listened to every single minute of all five podcasts do get in touch with me tom.clark at thetimes.co.uk and I'll work out if there's some kind of trophy that we can send to you.

20:19A special shout out to our wonderful producer Neil as well for being there with me for all of it. Thank you for listening. We'll be back with loads more shows next week as we start to preview the Champions League final and get more previews to the World Cup. We'll see you then.