PREMIER LEAGUE PREDICTIONS

0:04Gregor Robertson: Welcome to the Game Football Podcast from The Times. A new Premier League season is almost upon us. Ten months packed with hope, fear, joy, despair, theatre, drama and above all else, the best football on the planet. It all kicks off again when the Champions Liverpool host Bournemouth at Anfield on Friday night. And as ever, we'll be with you twice a week, all season, to discuss all the biggest talking points and best action. I'm Gregor Robertson and joining me on today's show we have the Chief Correspondent for the Times and Sunday Times, Martin Samuel, the Sunday Times Football Correspondent, Jonathan Northcroft, and the Times Columnist and former Chelsea, Aston Villa and Millwall striker, Tony Cascarino.

0:45Gregor Robertson: Guys, what are you most looking forward to or excited by or intrigued by in the new season ahead? Johnny, I'll start with you. Tons actually. I mean, at this point in time, I'm at Spurs on Saturday and I'm just excited for that first game of the season buzz. It's a unique feeling walking into the press box, seeing the full stadium and there's a new manager. There's some interesting signings like Kudis on the pitch and that's going to be replicated everywhere. So it's a general answer, but it's just that magic of football being back. It's just that you know it's going to be an even longer journey than ever.

1:21We're ending in a World Cup and we're going to take the first steps at the weekend and it's just that feeling of it's like the beginning of a holiday isn't it it's what's ahead of you everything's stretching ahead and it's a unique day in the year

1:34Gregor Robertson: Holiday gets shorter and shorter in the summers though don't they? Cass what are you looking forward to? Because there's so much change in the Premier League at many different levels from the teams that are coming up to teams that are going to try and survive to the teams that want to challenge and get to Europe and then the teams fighting for the title and you look at the change and you look at all the disruption that happens with transfers loads of clubs spending loads of money, you know, which is just, it's not unprecedented, but it feels like every year we go, it's more than it was last season and all these regulations are coming to stop spending and yet money is still going out the door.

2:09Many clubs, exciting players have come in as well. So I'm like Johnny, I'm at Spurs. I'm really looking forward to see what Spurs will be like. I know, obviously, last night and the Super Cup, but there's just stories in every football club. Everton's new stadium you know just things that are just upon us yeah everything I always look forward to the start of the football season always and particularly in the modern era where there is something everywhere so you can name any football club and you can go right well it'll be very interesting to see this very interesting so even those clubs that haven't changed manager like Manchester United for instance but it feels completely new this season feels is completely new.

2:56Liverpool feels completely new because this will be Arnie Slott's team. This isn't Jurgen Klopp's team with Arnie Slott's twist put on the top of it. This is Arnie Slott's team and will play his style of football. And so everywhere, everywhere you look, you know, with Chelsea, you know, the Club World Cup and what effect that will have on the team, whether it's positive or negative, I think it will start off very positive. I think it could become negative later in the season. We'll see. But all of this, whether Manchester City can bounce back from what looked like sort of end times as far as Pep Guardiola was concerned for a little while.

3:38And that's before you get to how many players can Crystal Palace and Brentford sell before they get relegated and things like that, which is genuine. I genuinely think that. how many players can you sell and still stay up? Would you put Wolves in there, Martin, as well? Yeah, Wolves, maybe. Maybe. The man did a good job last year. I was saying Wolves are their own ecosystem. Yeah, it's quite strange. Yeah, absolutely. They sign a few people and then come out of it. Yeah. You just look at Brentford and think, you can't. I mean, you have this, but Wiss and this, and Womo and, gee whiz.

4:15Gregor Robertson: Manager, best player, captain. Possibly another striker in Wiss. Absolutely. But then Tony Bloom would be the sort of counter-argument to that because you'd done a column, didn't you, about Brighton a few, was it last season? Yeah, a couple of seasons. Saying that. And it was a valid point. Within five years they could well get relegated. And funnily enough, people at Brighton completely agreed with it because they know, they know what their business model is and they know how, they don't think it will happen, they'll do everything in their power so that it doesn't happen. And so far it's showed no sign of happening.

4:49But they know there is a tipping point. I think they, and over the years, have learnt the art of selling, the art of changing and doing it at the right pace. They never get caught like Brentford have got caught this summer where there's an exodus.

5:07Gregor Robertson: They actually don't feel that way. They feel that they're prepared for this. They would argue that, but we all... No, and the smart, smart people at Brentford, I do take that on board. I know they plan well for the future, so maybe they've seen some and we don't. From the outside, it looks like they've just lost too much at one time. Whereas Brighton, it's always one or two a season. But this summer, I was trying to look at their business, and I kind of don't recognise the players they've signed. But that's the point with Brighton, isn't it? 18, 19-year-old Greek striker. But you look at his resume and you think, well, that's quite interesting.

5:42That's what they do. when they signed Balaba last year I wasn't going oh wow they signed Balaba because they know stuff we don't so I kind of trust them I trust the process there but I'm not so sure you're laughing I'm not so sure we was at the first game of last season weren't we we were together when they played Ipswich it's like the lad in midfield Balaba it was 20 at the start of last season we were laughing because it's like how much energy has he got I had that experience at Arsenal when I think they played them in the third game and he's just one of those players you end up on Wikipedia half the game you're like, who's this guy?

6:18Gregor Robertson: Why don't I know about him? Yeah, well he's obviously much coveted by other clubs and Manchester United among them but let's start off at the top, let's start off with the title and I'm going to get you to nail your colours to the mast Who's going to win the title? Johnny, I'll start with you again I think it's going to be a lot, lot closer than maybe some of the narrative is I think the perception is, you know, Liverpool champions won it handsomely last year, they were fantastic and they've done incredible transfer business. They've signed maybe the best player out there in Florian Verts. They might get Isak, best striker out there.

6:50Ergo, they're going to romp the league. I don't quite see it that way just because signings aren't always surefire. I wrote about this early in the summer. You've got to take on board that statistically 50 % of signings fail. 50 % of signings who come in the Premier League don't become regular starters. So they've signed a fabulous array of players. but history tells us not all of them are going to work I look at someone like Jeremy Frimpong really skillful really exciting is he is he defensively you know I've seen Man City sign that type of fullback in the past and not really work out is he going to be defensively appropriate for the Premier League I don't know I'm not saying he's not but he's not a surefire thing Eketike incredible talent best under 23 striker out there stats are amazing would I have signed him yes I would have signed him but he's not a surefire bet and they've lost Diaz and they've lost tragically Diogo Jota which is 30 goal involvements last season so what I'm saying is I think they've done the best business they could because they've signed four or five sensationally talented under 24 players and they're trying to renew their squad they might get Isak they might get Gehi and I think it's a different conversation if they get those two in but at that point at this point they haven't.

8:10They've signed brilliant young players to renew their squad but will it make them better next season? I'm not sure. I think it'll be a transitional season for Liverpool. I'm not sure all the signings are going to work. Long-winded build-up. I still think they're going to win the league because I think Slott's sensational. I think Verts will be he's the one that I think, that's just going to work and he's going to be amazing. But I think it might be trickier for them. I think we saw signs in the community shield. They might have trouble defending. They might just find themselves in a closer race.

8:41We forget how well Slott started the season last year. You know, he was nine points ahead almost by New Year. Is it going to be quite as good this year? I don't know. So I think it is Liverpool, but I think the others will close the gap. I think obviously Arsenal have done very good business. Chelsea are growing. We saw them grow throughout last season, won the Club World Cup. And there's a reinvigoration of Pep that Martin's written about. you can see as a person I think they're still transitional but will be a lot closer so I think it's going to be a brilliant title race I just don't see it being a romp for Liverpool Martin

9:20Gregor Robertson: your champions my champions would be Liverpool completely agree with John I don't think they'll be leading the league I don't think they'll do it as frontrunners I think it will be why do you say that? why? because if you look at their early if they're top of the league in the middle of October they'll win it by 20 points. If they're top of the league in the middle of October. Because you look at the start they've got and you look at, I think, five of their first eight games are Arsenal, Manchester United, Everton, Newcastle. It's not Man City, it might be Chelsea. I think it is Chelsea. So that's five of their first eight games.

9:58So you've got to expect in there some very, very difficult games. Now, it's going to help you a lot against Newcastle if they brought Newcastle centre forward. which, you know, that could make a big difference. It might not be the same game. But nonetheless, I don't see them necessarily being top early on in the season. I don't see them winning it from the front, as they did last year. I think front running is very hard. And so just at the time when you think, right, then they'll be gelling. And then, you know, because you think that Chelsea's team, you know, Pedro, has gelled already. They gelled out in the States.

10:40Man City, you look at Aynor and people, they did some work. They did some work in the States. They're coming into this sort of fully formed. Liverpool aren't. Didn't look it last week. Community Shield. Community Shield didn't look it. Looked as if there were still sort of patterns that people needed to get to know the patterns of the play and stuff. Anyway, just at the time when you think, right, that'll be coming together. and now they're going to start galloping past people is when Salah goes to the African nations. Inevitably, that will have an impact. So I can see them winning the league, but in the conventional way, in the conventional way where you end up, you know, overtaking people in April and stuff like that when it's getting tighter and tighter and tighter.

11:31But if they're top of the league in October, they win it by 20 points. Okay. Gas? Might as well finish the show now, might I? No, no, no, because this all goes well. This all goes well

11:44Gregor Robertson: for a good title race. I think you're going to say Liverpool. No, I'm not. Okay. That's even better. No, I'm not. And I'll give you the reason, first of all, with Liverpool, as Martin touched on the Community Shield, as I've seen in pre-season, that they're back four with changing two full-backs. Kerkhez coming in and look, terrific player. Fring-pong, terrific player. But Canate, and one player that no one gave stick to in the community shield was Van Dijk. He was doing things that I really, I kept remembering in my career of players running out with their arm up and they're not in line with their fullbacks.

12:19Because you're centre-half, you're in charge of your left back of your left side centre-half. You're in charge of your right back of your right side centre-half. That line was never straight. That line was, one was going and one was dropping. And it wasn't huge distances, but teams will get behind you. And Liverpool have had teams get behind them all pre-season and in the community shield. If he can't solve that problem quickly, because as much as people might go Andy Robertson, I still think he should be in front of Kerkis. I think Kerkis should have to wait a bit. Because Andy Robertson was pivotal to that line that Liverpool had.

12:52It wasn't so obvious with Trent because Trent was a free reign. Fring-pong can't pass the ball like Trent.

12:58Gregor Robertson: That's the other thing. They lose an enormous amount of creativity. And I saw that. Van Dyke was... Van Dijk was always the player that could go, I'll squeeze in there, but if he goes behind, I'll still get there. I don't know if he can still get there. Because what I saw, unless he needs a bit more training in the community shield, Palace got in behind Liverpool quite a number of times, and it was that run that was the centre-half moving up, straight behind, and that concerned me. Salah concerned me. And look, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you can have one bad. Of course you can have a bad game and not bad.

13:30Salah actually looked really disinterested in the community shield. just his body language. It was like, really? The Community Shield at Wembley? And I'm watching him thinking, Mitchell would have probably said, it's the easiest game I've had all season. Because Salah didn't look like Salah. I'm hoping that he is going to, he's not going to be the signing they've ended up going, well, give him an absolute crown jewels to stay. And suddenly he's not quite as tuned in as he was last season. Because last season, nearly every other season has been brilliant. Just was bothered by, not because he played badly and you give away the ball, that's fine.

14:05That happens. But I didn't see a player in there really that hungry to help Frimpong either. That bothered me. Now, Liverpool fans might think, well, come on, it is a community shield. But Liverpool haven't been, in my opinion. And players that have left, and players that can come in, as Jonathan says, it can cause a bit of disruption. And they're all fine players. They're all great. There's a few great signings in there. but that doesn't mean it's going to fall into place immediately I think Arsenal are the team to beat they've got two players in every position and they are the best organised team and I think the goals against Colum and which Liverpool have won leagues on so have Manchester United in years gone by Man City have done it big factors is that I think Liverpool will be the top goal scorers but could easily be conceded the most in the top four and that's my concern where I think Arsenal Gabriel's big they need him back for Arsenal because he's big but I look at Arsenal and I think as a Liverpool fan I'm thinking Arsenal and Chelsea are the two biggest threats for me I don't see Man City so much

15:08Gregor Robertson: OK let's talk about Arsenal then I mean the excuses are kind of being chipped away at now Giochrez there was a gaping hole for a number nine Giochrez finally after a heck of a long summer is the man to fill that spot Zubomendi comes in as well Maduweki although there's you know it's another option up front as Tony says they're kind of at least two good players and two good options in every position this is Arteta has no more excuses Johnny no no no they're ready you know this is a squad completely built to his specifications now he even he got the sporting director he wanted because he you know he wanted somebody to action the deals he thinks he'll take them over the line and he had those deals done for him Zubimendi Jokerez Madueki who surprised a lot of people as a signing but somebody right up Arteta's street a one-on-one specialist but a pace that they maybe didn't have that can play on both sides so he's the squad is and this is the end of five, six years of building for him this squad is exactly what he wants he was able to plead injuries and bad refereeing last year you can't plead that every year you know so those excuses can't happen again he told us last year he was the best team in the Champions League there were a number of Premier League games he said we deserve that if you look at the XG blah blah blah so yeah there is a sense that he has to deliver now he has to stop talking about how close they are and he can't complain that there's nothing that he lacks that he hasn't asked for but I agree with Tony that they have got a really really impressive strong deep squad not just with the signings but with people like Marnieri growing and and becoming, he'll be a senior player this year.

17:00As in, he won't be the kid coming on, he'll be ready to play. I think they want to use him more through the middle, which gives him a different option to Odegaard, maybe rest him a little bit at times. Lewis Skelly was a bit of an unknown at the start of last season. Now he's a proper senior player. And then you've got Max Dowman coming in. Wow. Incredible talent. Pre-season, someone that's footage from him. And somebody that's, he might not play all the time, But he will be that factor that they can bring on just to light up the stadium with a couple of touches and get everyone excited. So they've got a really deep squad.

17:33A lot hinges on Jokeres. Will he be, I mean, yes, they needed a number nine. They've got a number nine. But how good is he going to be? Signs are good so far. I mean, he's making runs that I don't think Arsenal have had for maybe since Aubameyang, you know, near post runs. runs in behind stretching defences does something on the left side that they didn't have before so balances them up the signs are good but without being the voice of doom about transfers again he's come from the Portuguese League and the record of players coming from there isn't that brilliant in strikers isn't that brilliant in England so unknown about him but looks good so far I think they'll be really close but I have said Liverpool and I think it would be agonising for Arsenal.

18:24They need Jacarese to be the best striker in the country. That's what they need because they haven't had the best striker in the country since Van Persie. That would be the last time Arsenal had the best centre-forward in the country where you looked at him and thought, right, there's about two or three teams and if he was the centre-forward, any one of those two or three teams would win the league. He will be the difference. And that was Arsenal's last great striker. Aubameyang was a good striker. they've had good strikers. The last time you could go best number nine is at Arsenal. So that's what they need.

18:59That's what you're going to need to get in front of Liverpool. I take the point about the defence, Tony. I just think that you're going to need to be able to get near to Liverpool.

19:10Gregor Robertson: Do you think you will? At the other end. Do you think you will be? No. Okay. That's why I said Liverpool, and I would have Chelsea to come second ahead of Arsenal. Okay. my question is just I guess it's over Arteta I think he's got all the tools will he will he release will he you know unbutton himself a little bit and just go for a bit more try to stop trying to win games by fine margins because I think the league's changed I don't think you win titles like that anymore and they found that last year they've got a lot of assets in the way you know from their set pieces to the double position every player you know you look at Lewis Skelling you think Califari or he can play there.

19:50You can do that really all around the team at Arsenal. Ben White's fit again. Ben White, yeah. I think Gabriel's massive for them because I just think he's that type of leader, captain. I know he's not the captain, but he performs like one. He's become more important almost than Salih. Yeah, Arsenal feel like they've took a long time to get here, but it's the first time I saw so many positives in what they've done. and it's right to call out, you know, will Jokeres be a success? It's a coin flip.

20:25Gregor Robertson: Well, staying on the theme of number nines, let's talk about Chelsea because Liam De Lape, Jean-Pedro, they've kind of felt like, after their success in the Club World Cup and pre-season, it's starting to look a little bit like the final pieces in a puzzle with far too many pieces, maybe. Do you know if that makes sense? But does that feel right? Does it feel like those two options, obviously last season they had Nicholas Jackson, but that was another team that had a big gaping hole up front despite all the billions spent. Does it feel like Chelsea should be seen as a challenger competitor? Without a doubt.

21:01I mean, I was out in the Club World Cup. Gael Pedro walked into that team halfway through a tournament and looked as if he'd been there the whole time. And people can say what they like about a tournament. I saw the team they beat. I saw the team they beat play Tottenham last night, and it went back to the studio, and everyone kept saying, well, who can live with Paris Saint-Germain this season? And someone, oh, well, maybe Barcelona. I'm thinking, I saw Chelsea pulverise them about a month ago in a game that, you know, mattered to PSG so much that Luis Enrique was trying to chin somebody at the end of it.

21:39That's how much of a friendly it was as far as PSG were concerned. And Chelsea destroyed them. And Pedro was superb. And when De Lapp came on, he was a double handful in a totally different way. Chelsea look a good team to me. I'm amazed they, you know, I'm not amazed because of the rules and stuff, but I'm amazed that having finally got Madureki to a position where you're looking at him thinking, this is a player. They've let him go to Arsenal.

22:12But Esteval. Esteval. Looks some player. If you're talking about things we're excited about. Now, whether he, I mean, I do hope they play him. I do hope it's not one of those guys that they were thinking, oh, he's a project, you know, we're thinking of next season. Because he looks ready. He looks ready. Yeah, he was the Ecuadorian one. He's in my fantasy team, so I hope.

22:37Gregor Robertson: Yeah, I mean, it's not Tom. It's not Tom. That's the most exciting thing. Yeah, but he, because he looks ready now. And so you do hope there's not some plan in place that they're going to adhere to no matter the evidence before you. Because you're looking at it and thinking, this kid is ready to walk into a Premier League team. I think he'll get a chance. I think Maleska's good at giving, especially attacking players' chances. It's really interesting with Madueki. But that's a Chelsea model, isn't it? They've just got rid of him and signed the next Madueki, which is Jamie Gittins. And that's just what they do.

23:12but yeah I think they're really serious contenders any team that's any team that's the world champions and deservedly so who in December last year they were contending they just were a young squad and didn't have enough which Mureska told us you know you got laughed at for saying it but he was right they just weren't ready they're a bit more ready now I mean Caicedo grew into I think the best in Rodri's absence the best central midfielder alongside Gavin Burch in the league real leader real warrior and you saw Cole Palmer coming back Cole Palmer looks exceptional in that final game I mean it was just exceptional Fernandes as well his movement Fernandes Lavia when he's fit and that's that's an unfortunate problem the defence is my one worry I think Kukurela is the best left back in the world oh Kukurela I think Kukurela is the best left back in the world

24:07Gregor Robertson: and the same Jarrell Hato from Ajax Central defence On Chelsea the standout feature is going to be because we know they've got a great side in many different ways when I watch them I think I mean it was a metric done by Bloom and we all sort of live off Tony Bloom because he sort of keeps picking these players but it was on who was the most influential player in a game in the world who could make the difference more often than not Kaicedo was the number one player Kaicedo came out on top because of his ability to rob the ball off the opposition keep it and move it and it's amazing when you see someone get their head turned in pre-season you know like the CNI's act and then you see like what Kaicedo when he left Brighton no pre-season whatsoever when he left first season didn't get going at all next year gets a full money in the bank as we'd say you know season preparation Kaicedo was extraordinary for Chelsea last year just finally on Chelsea what about Maresca because he was even kind of praised for the way that he kind of out-thought PSG in the final and went back to full backs who stayed wide and you know as opposed to stepping into midfield but do we feel like there's still possibly a chance he might try and some of his tactical sort of innovations have been interesting and some have worked and putting Caicedo to right back when you think no he's the best midfielder in the world just put him in midfield like is there a chance he's not ready He's a bit of a chess board manager.

25:36He's a chess player and he's a bit of a chess board manager in the sense he does kind of see the players as counters and wants them in certain positions. And he will do stuff like put Casado at right back. He will be very methodical. But I mean, I think he's, despite being in his early 50s, I think he's the least experienced manager in the Premier League in terms of games, apart from Keith Andrews, of course. in terms of top flight game and senior games managed because he spent a long time as an assistant. So yeah, of course he's still learning, but surely he's exceeded expectations in both his jobs now.

26:13Surely we've got to see that as a guy that's growing and growing. I think the Club World Cup is huge for Chelsea. I was just going to ask that. Absolutely huge because they bedded a team in, you know, not all of the new players, But there were some people in and around that Chelsea set-up who returned from Club World Cup as different people. The goalkeeper and the match that he had in the final. But he played in a way, Martin, that was not high risk. No, absolutely. If he cleared it, he cleared it to it. And the amount of times Neto got in because of it. The ball, exactly, the ball to Neto in behind the PSG full-back, you're thinking what if you've got someone who can hit it like that why don't you hit it like that hit it like that all the time you're going to frighten the life out of people because Mureska asks them to try and

27:05Gregor Robertson: pop into midfield pop into midfield all the time but hit it like that but he did and Mureska as well because you know we all saw at Stamford Bridge last season a degree of impatience sometimes with the way Chelsea played and the fans wanted something with a little bit more energy or whatever you come back as world champions and you've got that for four years, as long as FIFA don't start messing about with the duration of it. You've got that for four years. Certainly in this year, that's got to buy you time. You know, you've beaten PSG 3-0. I mean, destroyed them. Absolutely destroyed PSG. And you've come back as world champions.

27:46Well, people can't get on your back. You know, or they can, but they would be foolish to get on their back. So they come back a different team. Cole Palmer got his mojo back by the end of that. Joe Pedro looked as if, you know, when they beat Estaval's team and all the players went up to Estaval at the end straight away and were like giving them a little cuddle and going, you're with us next season, don't worry about that. It looked like it was a great trip for them. It really did. It looked like it was a great trip for them. And I think that makes a difference. Now, the one unknown is, do they fall off a cliff around about December the 25th or whatever?

28:30You know, I watched one of my lads run the 400 metres once, and I was at the 800 metres, but anyway, he ran it like it was a sprint from the start, and he was like about 50 metres ahead of everybody else. You're like, Jesus, look at him go, and it got to about the halfway stage. you literally fell sideways off the track because so it could be it could be something like that it could be something like that another team

29:00Gregor Robertson: the Club World Cup looked like it was going to be a good competition for but didn't quite turn out to be perhaps was Manchester City Johnny where do we see them now I mean it's just perhaps this feels like it's still about Pep yeah it is it is I mean look this is still transitional Man City and I think we've got to get out of our minds the Man City of between 2016 and 2024 you know the machine the team that obliterated everyone and was so consistent and there's a lot of narrative about oh you know City are back, that city's going to be back, I don't think that city is going to come back or it would come back if Pep stays another three or four years and does more building.

29:47That was such an incredible team and it has dismantled. There's no De Bruyne this year. Him and Bernardo are the last symbols of it, maybe. Gundogan, but he's old. I think we're seeing a city that will be better, more competitive than last year. There's an energy about Pep that he wants to play in a slightly different way, try new things. You look at the signings, particularly someone like Rinders, he's quite a dynamic attacking sort of midfield legs, not necessarily the steady ball playing player that he's had in the past.

30:25Gregor Robertson: Ait Nouri as well. Not a centre half. Not at all. He's a winger. Proper winger. So I think we'll see City being faster, more direct, more transitional, going for it more. But they've got so much work to do I think to catch up on their previous standards and the standards the three clubs we've talked about are setting that I think we'll see some amazing performances from them and we'll see some defeats to Crystal Palace or whatever and in the end they'll be close but not there Not very optimistic about City because defensively I think they'll concede goals whether it's Neves or Ant Nuri either side, both terrific going forward look at the centre half position, you've got Diaz is Diaz the player he once was not for me he's still a good player but he's not the great centre after they had Akanji then you go John Stone's injured nearly all the time Guardiola can play in that position but I think Pep's had to unsettle quite a few he's had to get rid of people that were obviously successful for him you put that into the De Bruyne sort of package I think Anderson's been questioned you know whether he'll be the long term still goalkeeper of Man City I think there's a lot going on there and then I'd had Rodri they have to have Rodri back the loss of Rodri for the start of the season it was enormous is such a kick in the teeth for him because you're thinking right so we'll see City with Rodri this season so that's back to the old City and then the first thing you hear is right he's had a setback he's not quite ready you know middle of September isn't it middle of September but, well, you can be six points behind.

32:14Well, it's way over the timeline of ACL. Yeah, absolutely. He wins the ball. He gets the ball back for you. So who would do that if he can't do it? Who would you look at and go? Well, he played in the States and he obviously wasn't quite ready, wasn't he? They've obviously brought him back. They've obviously brought him back, whether they brought him back early or whether he looked ready. You often get a swallow on injury. I mean, Haaland was out for half the season last year and then you talk about coin flips I mean Cherokee that's more of a dice roll isn't it yeah but he could come up six because he's got such talent I mean he could be amazing he doesn't

32:50Gregor Robertson: instinctively feel like a pet player either for the stuff he'll do off the ball a bit like Grealish when he arrived well they wanted Virts who was a much more guaranteed option couldn't get him so he's had to go for the gamble because City have moved suddenly moved down that pecking order behind Liverpool which is somewhere they haven't been before in the transfer market let alone the league there's a lot of ifs in City really are is Pep the biggest one though? maybe I still go back to the interview he gave to TNT do you mean in a sense will he stay? yeah he kind of painted the picture himself when he said today modern football is the way Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool play modern football is not positional you have to rise to the rhythm so he's accepted that football has changed and he's if not been left behind his football is no longer the dominant force so he's either got to try and combat that and say no no my football is going to be the dominant force I can still be successful with that or he's got to change and for me the biggest fascination is which one of those things he does I mean look it was the dominant force for four seasons before this last one if you know I mean it's not so far away from when we were all looking at it going how can you compete with this and when And, you know, I can't remember what we said last week, let alone last year, but this programme last year, I don't think anyone was anticipating the season that Manchester City had, or indeed the season that Liverpool had.

34:21I don't think anyone sat there this time last year and went, well, I'll make, you know, Liverpool will be about 15 points clear by Christmas or whatever, by, well, it wasn't just a bit after Christmas. But, you know, look, I think with Pep, there's always a chance that this season is last. But that is always the case, Rupert. And they'll say that in Manchester City, that one day he'll just walk in and say, right, that's it, I'm done. And it could be in five years' time, it could be next Tuesday. But one day he'll just decide and that's it. So they've always got to be ready for that. They've always got to be ready.

34:59And whether he fancies the Jurgen Klopp exit where you rebuild the team for somebody else and then you go, right, I've done. This is my right. Over to you, mate. I don't know, but I don't think he's so far off. No, he transmits energy, doesn't he? Like he's got energy back. And he's seen Luis Enrique make that transition. If you're ahead of Man City, you're not going to be too far off with the title. He had personal stuff off the field as well, didn't he? which also compounds it so it's a lot of things that have to go right for them but I would always argue the biggest thing is Rodri

35:40Gregor Robertson: Finally then is there anyone else we should be talking about putting into this mix? Ok silence it No no Man United fans were waiting No no we'll come to them You think because in the last few seasons there's always been some dark horse there or thereabouts and you're wondering who it will be this season but I'm thinking of you just look at it and think this is probably a big six you know big seven season or whatever I don't see Brighton or whatever muscling into that top four I don't see a Nottingham Forest OK well we'll come to that after the break we've got to talk about who should be worried and who should be looking up from that mid-pack before that Martin we know how much you loathe the half-time quiz I think you secretly loved it last year Absolutely You promised last season to come up with something better We'll be the judge of whether it's better or not So what we're going to do instead of the quiz because anyone can do a quiz you can go over to he can do quizzes or whatever what people can't do what people can't do is great English pop music played on the kazoo and it's never been done I've checked it all.

37:01The rest is football podcast, The Guardian, all of them. None of them. None of them do it. You promised us last season.

37:07Gregor Robertson: I can't believe you've actually brought in the kazoo. Not only have I brought in my own kazoo, which you'll notice is a bit leery, I have also brought in... I've also brought in kazoo for everybody else. So you can all join in once the answer is revealed and we will reveal the answer after the break. But first, we'll go with this. my money is Johnny will know this straight away great British pop music on the kazoo after three a one and a two

37:43there we go get out Neil

37:45Gregor Robertson: get out Neil we'll get the answer after the break

38:01Gregor Robertson: Welcome back to the game podcast from the Times. I'm Greg Robertson alongside Martin Samuel, Jonathan Northcroft and Tony Cascarino. Didn't think I'd ever be saying this, but before the break we asked you, what song is Martin playing on the kazoo? Actually, we asked you, Johnny. Yeah, and of course I didn't get it. But Martin's kindly, apparently he's panicked by the Smiths. A bit more cheerful than panicked by the Smiths. Do you know when he says it, when he says it, you can hear it, you can hear it, you can hear it. I thought it was silly and sweet. I did. I thought you was vaping. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Don't worry, I'd do that before the show.

38:37Gregor Robertson: I'm going to just say, Tom, if you're listening, I'm leaving it to you to decide whether that is going to be a mainstay for the rest of the season or not. I'm promising war hide later. Let's move on. Who should be worried this season? Tom Clark. Yeah, maybe. When he hears that. we'll talk first of all about the about the promoted three teams Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley as everyone knows and we've discussed on the podcast for a long time now it's becoming increasingly challenging for any of the promoted teams to survive all of the previous six promoted teams have been relegated first of all do we see that changing Johnny?

39:16Yeah it could change I mean we've talked a bit about Brentford before I think we're at a stage with the Premier League now that when you're asking will the promoted teams survive you've actually got to turn the question around and say who could drop because the Premier League clubs are so established now, they're so good so much investment has gone into them that for survival to take place somebody has to drop from that level and if you look at last season's league the three went down with a record low points but the team that was fourth bottom had 38 points, which is absolutely average. So everyone else was average or above, and it's the three teams that weren't anywhere near.

40:00So I start with Brentford. I think they're the vulnerable ones. Thomas Frank was an incredible coach for them, and Boemo, Wiesa, Norgard, huge players. Keith Andrews might be amazing, but even if he is amazing, he's got a hell of a job with that squad transition to manage. So I think the door is open, Anna, and you've written about them today, Gregor. I think Leeds have got the best chance of surviving. A couple of reasons. Home Stadium, a big one. They'll win games there. They think like a big club. That will make them competitive mentally in certain games. They won't accept their fate as readily as the other two.

40:47And Farkey, I'd love Daniel Farkey to stay up. I love the guy. my missus is a Norwich fan so I've sort of lived the Daniel Farkey rollercoaster with her

40:55Gregor Robertson: he needs a good start but he's doing something different isn't he he is as you wrote about he's packed his team full of physicality and height and size and he's recognised that he can't just go and play nice smiley Daniel Farkey football he's got to adapt a little bit and we saw Thomas Frank do that when he came up with Brentford so maybe this will be a similar journey for Farkey but he does have to have a good start they've all got to have good starts because once you're under the cosh, it's so difficult. Gus, who do you think is going to be drawn in? Because we know the promoter trio are going to be facing an uphill battle, but who do you think is going to be drawn in?

41:34I sort of always felt full crew at West Ham has got to work big because obviously Antonio, they've not taken on. They've lost him with injury. I think it's a big thing they kept so far. Yarra Bowen, lost Kudus. I'm just not sure about West Ham I went to quite a number of games at the end of last season and I came away thinking West Ham faithful are not buying this at all so Graham Potter has got to get off to a good start because they weren't enjoying the football I was going to the stadium at Stratford arriving and I was thinking all the atmosphere is in the bars then you get to the game and it was flat as hell and I was sitting next to this guy who was a season ticket holder and he started chatting to me and he went I haven't enjoyed one game under Graham Potter since, you know, any home game.

42:21And I felt, well, that's his, you know, it's a fan, but I respect his opinion, but he's watched every game and he seemed pretty, quite a pragmatic guy where, you know, he went, I haven't enjoyed one. We've struggled. We've not got things going, you know, talking about all what I'd really seen in the game that I watched. And I'd seen perhaps three games towards the end of last year. And, um, I kept thinking, full crew has to work for them because he spent a long time out injured. and they need someone to lead that line. And, you know, unless I'm not sure about their keeper, you know, they haven't been that crazy in the market, but they've lost a few.

43:00So I think, you know, David Moyes was a big manager for them. And the moment they chose not to keep him on board and go to a different direction than Graham Potter, I thought, okay, it's your idea. It's got to work. and I'm not sure that the West Ham fans will change in an instant. If they started off the season indifferently I think it would be it'd compound pretty quickly. Martin, West Ham? West Ham. It will be more like a Potter team I would imagine because the two fullbacks the new fullback and one Bissaka. It'll be interesting to see Pakatar without thinking that his career could end at any moment.

43:40Whether it's Falker or Callum Wilson up front. I mean, Callum Wilson's not the most popular signing to be fair because he's, you know, he's bantered about West Ham, you know, and you know, like no one can take a joke anymore and so he starts with everyone going, you know, he said, you know, we won something and he said it was like, you know, winning something on FIFA or whatever it was. So they've got their work cut out. I think Aguaird comes back and I've always liked Aguaird but I think he comes back because he was out of the gold last season. No, I don't disagree with Tony. West Ham could get dragged into it very, very easily.

44:20I think Crystal Palace could get dragged into it if they end up losing Gwehi and Eze in the next week because then you'll get into that tipping point. And if Glasland's not happy. Yeah. Because he's an added value, super coach for them. Without a doubt. He's not into it.

44:36Gregor Robertson: So I think there's two or three. Bournemouth. Bournemouth have lost. Yeah. Kerkers, Poisson, Zabarni Yeah, yeah Yeah, yeah, no, huge I just think Iriola's so good You could say that about Glasner too Yeah, yeah, well that's why Do we think the manager is a super strength for these teams? I think Glasner's the one that's less happy with the situation I think Iriola understands And has always managed those types of clubs Whereas Glasner's a big manager He's, you know, big in Germany And dominant in Austria so he expects more. I think Iola is more likely to understand the Bournemouth model and live with it.

45:16You can't go to a club with a 12 ,000 capacity stadium and think you're not going to lose players, if you know what I mean. Whereas if you're at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace, you've just won the FA Cup, you've just beaten Liverpool on penalties in the community shield, which any foreign manager will regard as a trophy. It's only over here that we don't think of it as a serious trophy. Every foreign coach will think of that because they'll think of it in the way they look at their own Super Cups and stuff in the countries that they come from. So you wouldn't be expecting to lose all of your players in those circumstances.

45:56You wouldn't be looking. You know you're going to lose the odd one. I'm Jack Frankfurt would have lost the odd player to Bayern Munich or whatever. but you're not maybe expecting to lose as many as Crystal Palace have lost in the last couple of seasons. So I think, yeah, I think he will be more dissatisfied than Iriola, for instance. But there is a suggestion now, isn't there, that Gwehi might stay? Yeah. There is a suggestion, you know, which would be very big. That would be big.

46:30Gregor Robertson: That he'll see out his last year and then he'll go. OK, colours to the mass time then who's going down? Johnny, you first I think Brentford are going down I should say I really like Sunderland's recruitment I think they've given themselves every chance It's bold but I think they will go down and I think Burnley will and Leeds to stay up Gus? I'd definitely go Burnley losing Trafford and obviously Egan Riley as well CG Egan Riley you know, they're part of that back four OK, it was in the Championship that Brogill coming in, yeah. So many injuries. He's got no great goal scoring record. Well, no, and his injury record is, unfortunately for him, really poor.

47:15I'd definitely go Burnley. I think Sunderland have done the, way more business than Newcastle. You know, they have done so much more than Newcastle. But I just think, like we said earlier, that 50 % of transfers don't work. If that is the case with Sunderland, that will take Sunderland down. The third one, I'm not sure. Brentford's a weird one because I've known Keith Andrews over the years and I think it's a huge risk, but people in Brentford say that he was on their list years gone by of having a big involvement, not just as a tactical coach in set pieces. They saw a much bigger picture for him.

47:59that's a big risk but I don't really like going for the teams with the models that are so exactly good generally so that means Brentford, Brighton obviously Bournemouth now Bournemouth now I've tried to avoid the model teams because they keep signing players we don't know very little about and keep going and a year later we're going well they've got £50 million for them well that's part of the reason in many ways why the promoted teams have come back down again in the last two years because there's been so many of, it's not just about the money because teams that have come straight back down again have probably spent more money than teams that have managed to survive and Ipswich so it's the fact that teams that you would traditionally be looking at that could be picked off by the teams that have come up are a bit too smart now and the one thing you would say with Brentford, who I would also have to go down, because I just think it's the tipping point with the amount of sales they've now made, is that they've got someone like Tony Bloom.

49:07They've got Benham, and Benham uses this statistical model, and they adhere to the statistical model. Well, Tiago, they said the forward's going to be a valuable issue. Well, that's it. I see. And that's part of it. But it's not just having a statistical model. It's absolutely following it. That's what, you know, the thing with Brighton is it's that they absolutely adhere to the, you know, if the numbers say this, we will do this. They don't sit there and go, yeah, but I've got this hunch. That's not allowed. You know, it is, this is the numbers, this is what we do. Brentford are the same. You know, they could be smarter than all of us.

49:47In fact, it's quite possible.

49:49Gregor Robertson: Every chance, yeah. Cass, I'm not sure. I'm in the chair today. It's usually Tom saying, I'm not sure. I think you sidestepped the prediction. Give me your three teams. Well, I've gone Burnley-Sunderland, and the third one... And then you fudged the last one. I'm going to go West Ham. Okay, I don't like that, but go on, what's your three? Well, I would go with the same as Johnny. I think Burnley, only because I'd love Scott Parker to keep him up, but I think the model that they use to get up, that very, very strong defensive model,

50:21whether Burnley's defence is strong enough to withstand what's coming in the Premier League. Or whether they have the firepower to score any goals. I'm not quite sure, exactly. And Sunderland, they've spent a lot of money. Granit Xhaka? Yeah, they've spent a lot of money. But you just look at the base they've had to start from, which is similar to that Ipswich base where they virtually thought they've had to buy a new team. And Forrest in 2022. Yeah, it's very hard. It's very hard to buy a new team. get it to survive in the Premier League

50:55Gregor Robertson: you can go back and listen to our club by club guides we've got four parts been through every club in the country over the summer but finally I think we should just move on to who should be looking up because there are obviously two very big exceptions we've missed out so far now you can talk about United you can talk about Spurs and possibly maybe you'll see Everton Johnny oh it's like you've read my mind yeah look I think one quick point to make is we spent And all you were talking last year about how brilliant the middle class of the Premier League was. This is really invigorating. It's sad to see, but this has been a summer where they've all been weakened.

51:33They've been pillaged by the big clubs. Brentford, Bournemouth lost players. Newcastle has been miserable for them. Forest has been pretty miserable for them. Fulham have signed no one. Fulham have signed no one. Palace. Brighton are Brighton, so that's fine. But I think the other ones mentioned will not be as competitive as they were. which then opens the door for the bigger clubs to rise back up. And I think, you know, you asked about dark horses. I maybe should have said Spurs because I think Thomas Frank is fantastically clever. We saw that against PSG last night. I think they signed really well.

52:12We've got to remember under Ange, they were really, really good in patches and it was all up and down but it wasn't a bad team do you know what I mean it wasn't a dysfunctional Man United style two years ago whatever team it was it was an up and down team but it was a team that had great potential so I think Spurs will be really strong this year and I think United I'm surprising myself because I was really negative about where it was going under United you were towards the end of the season I was but they've but at that point I didn't expect the transfer business that they've done because I believed Jim Ratcliffe when he sacked lots of people and said we're out of cash I actually believed the billionaire I believed the billionaire and that he wasn't a ruthless capitalist and he just liked sacking people and spending money the way he wants to spend it and that's what he's done so they have signed really well and I don't think I've sat there and said that about Man United for years, they've signed really well

53:08Gregor Robertson: Entirely new front three after the lowest scoring season in history Yeah, a good front three two excellent proven Premier League players and a really hot young striker who I think is, you know, as I say, you never be sure, but a really good bet, I think. And if they do go and get a Belieber or something in midfield, then you take them more seriously. Because there's still big weaknesses. Defence, midfield isn't great, goalkeeper's not great. And I've got doubts about how fun it is to watch Amarim's football. It's a bit of a grind, but I think they'll be a lot more competent. So I think those two could end up in the top six without a doubt and it might just look a bit more like a traditional league table with the big clubs at the top.

53:52It's obvious we're not going to see Manchester United and Spurs where they were last year. That's an obvious. 15th and 17th.

53:58Gregor Robertson: Yeah. So where are they going to finish? Would I see Manchester United in the top eight? Probably. Likewise Spurs. I like Everton. I like what he... It was interesting when David Moyes took the job and he said he didn't want to find any relegation battles. I actually like Not like Jim Radcliffe. I actually believed him. And you can tell that by signings. You know, Drewsby all going in. That's a very technical player. Jack Gourilish, again, a technical player. I don't think we're going to go and see David Moyes approach a season. And I think he gets a bit of a bad rap. I mean, he was behind Piquetso and he was behind Kudus at West Ham who were terrific players.

54:39You know, he hasn't always signed Fellaini types. you know and I just think do you know what the way that Beto played towards the end of the season for whatever reason David Moyes got a tune out of him because he didn't look even close to being a player and I think he's capable of doing that in a team so I think Everton will do far better but yeah I mean Newcastle still think they'll be a really good side even if they lose I still think they'll be a really good side I love their midfield it's got so much energy you know a really good midfielder And they've got two wide boys, whether it's Gordon, whether it's Murphy, whether it's the boy they signed from Forrest, Alanga.

55:20They've got good players. Elliot Anderson in midfield as well. For Forrest, you always know that's reliable. They lost him. They lost him. And if they do more business, I think Newcastle will still be fine. They've still got a really good side that they can put out there with Botman, obviously Dan Byrne, all good Sha, all good Premier League players. Hall one side, Levermento the other. Still a good side, Newcastle.

55:44Gregor Robertson: Go on then, Martin, who should be looking up? Man United and Spurs should be. You can talk about them if you want. I think Man United are top 16. Top six? Yeah. I think they're a top 16 because they've got a good forward line now. The defence, you can get a defence out of that. They had injuries last season. You can get a defence out of the personnel. The personnel they've got there, you can get a defence the midfield is still a problem they haven't got a midfield in the same league as the Newcastle three I mean they're just not in the same league and he clearly doesn't fancy Minou in any position that's got a defensive responsibility and if you look at the way they've bought he isn't getting in that front three either so I don't see where he where he fits in, unfortunately.

56:40But he got something out of Casemiro towards the end of last season, much to everyone's surprise. I think, yeah, I think they were a top six team and I think Tottenham were a top six team and it depresses me to say it. So I think it is, I would have as the top six, the old big six before Newcastle turned up. Villa as well will be good. And I think Newcastle and Villa just underneath it.

57:04Gregor Robertson: Mood music in Newcastle and Villa hasn't. That's why they've not really fallen into any of these categories. As I say, we have done club-by-club guide. We can't speak about every club, but it's not been the same sort of positive. Not many signs through the door. Obviously, Isak issue, Saga at Newcastle. With both of those clubs, you've just got to fall back on them having two of the best managers in the league. And great home stadiums. Absolutely. And the fact that in the last couple of seasons, there has been a club that nobody saw coming. So that would be my great hope for the season, would be that I'm completely wrong.

57:38Gregor Robertson: You just opened it up there. Who's it going to be, Martin? I'm going to put you in the spot. Are you fine now? Do you think I'd be sitting here talking to the likes of you if I could actually predict... If I could actually predict football results? The...

57:55So... No, so I don't know. I'm not going to... I wouldn't know. I wouldn't know. I hope I'm wrong. I hope that somebody comes in and it is not the big six that are in the top six positions but I sort of fear it will be.

58:09Gregor Robertson: Okay, well I for one can't wait. Looking forward to all kicking off this weekend and we'll be back on Monday as always to review all the best of the action from opening weekend. I hope to see you then.