PREMIER LEAGUE TEAM BY TEAM SPECIALS: Part Four

0:29Hello and welcome to the Game Football Podcast from the Times. We'll also be speaking to the Times data journalist, George Willoughby, who's written a fascinating piece about the growing challenge of Premier League survival faced by the teams promoted from the Championship. But first, Martin, great to have you on the show. And judging by how much your patch has ballooned over the summer, it's going to be a busy old season for you. That's even before we get to Newcastle. usually in our profession there is the relief of the summer there is the relief of the season and when the transfer window shuts at the start of september to end this well it might not end this soap opera that has revolved around the cassian eyed and alexander isak and which has not finished yet and may have a fair way to run i'm sure you're gonna ask me a lot about that i was kind of reminding myself on of pierre van hoydonck's attempts to leave nottingham forest whether it was 20 odd years ago the strike the fight with near fight with a teammate in the dressing room the fact that he played for Nottingham Forest when the deal wouldn't go through and when he scored a goal the Nottingham Forest teammates which you may remember this went to celebrate with Scott Gemmell the creator of the goal and not the player himself so yes you try to escape and you're casting it it's like this omnipresent ghost this ghoulish figure that will never ever leave you alone it doesn't matter what sunbed you're on what beer you're trying to drink the club will never ever go away and sometimes it's an absolute...

1:49Sorry, I was going to say that. It's a bit of a chore. And you just ask for one or two days peace from it and unfortunately that never, ever comes. Yeah, we should let listeners in on the fact that this is your first day back after holiday and you've been slapped in the face with Alexander Isak. I don't like to do the inverted... I don't like to do the inverted commas thing, but if you could put holiday in inverted commas, because even when I'm lying under some bed, the two people out of the side of me are saying, do you know anything that's going on with Isak? and I'm like, the only thing I know now is I'm going in the pool.

2:19However, you are still getting texts and everybody's bombarding you with it. So it has been, not joking, it has been a cloud over the entire summer. It doesn't matter if you're away, you were keeping an eye on the situation. I think the Friday before I went away, in theory on holiday, we did the story that a senior source had told the Times that Alexander is not for sale and Newcastle were looking at Benjamin Sesco and if Sesco was unlocked, then that may change opinions upstairs. doing a half week slayer and however many millions of words that have been written Alexander is like is still a Newcastle United player as we speak what day are we on Tuesday and Sesco signs for Manchester United and I'm sure we're coming to it this flawed Newcastle transfer policy this summer of perhaps punching above their weight doing it in public has been such a bad look cobbled with Isaac's increasing desire which I think we wrote first on June the 24th in the times we said then this was a play Liverpool were very interested in Liverpool were a bit reluctant to commit to that but we wrote it then and with each day with each week that desire from Isaac to take this move to Liverpool at the age of 25 becomes stronger and stronger You returned with an exclusive this morning I mean there's a lot being reported about this now he reports that he was he told the club 12 months ago that this was going to be his final season but you've also reported today that he's already moved out of his house and it's up for rent and he's got no intention of returning so it sounds like it's going to get it could well get messy and be a mess you say it's been a cloud over the summer it looks like it's going to be a cloud over the start of the season too oh no absolutely and going back to that Mark Crosley time of Pierre Van Houdant I think you would say professional footballers were probably different to what they are now I think there may be a greater understanding of the career path the stepping stones all those kinds of situations for players but there was an interesting phrase from Eddie Howe over the weekend where he alluded to a bit of discomfort like disquiet from the fellow professionals which is at Newcastle which is why Alexander Izak is now training on his own in the afternoon has there been a bit of a reaction reaction from senior players of the squad asked some sources this morning they said they didn't think so but there is a reason why he's now training on his own if you already have at this point in town in this moment in time you have to ask yourself right what do I want do I want Alexander Isaac or do I want no strikers so the minute the castle have to put their feet I think into the ground to say we can't do this deal if and they don't want to do this deal trust me the senior levels of this club do not want to do this deal and the many conversations before went away and during that time away and come speaking to people again this morning you aren't dealing with Freddie Shepard and Sir John Hall here if you're Liverpool You're dealing with Yasser Al-Ramayan, who is the head of the public investment fund of Saudi Arabia.

5:11The money that is effectively provided with the Premier League took a long, long time to be happy about this money that in theory comes from Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. When they say no, it's not necessarily the same as a football club chairman saying no. So the situation, which it's intriguing anyway, even though it's dragged on a long time, is just how firm they're going to be in their belief that they say, hang on, we are the public investment fund of Saudi Arabia. And if we say we don't want to sell this player, then we don't want to sell this player. Right, what's happening next?

5:44As you say, that's only one aspect of the dynamic. That's the club's reality in financial terms. But then there's the team dynamic. There's the team dynamic. So the piece that we wrote on the 24th of June was that Newcastle were braced for this approach. We're going to offer to make them the best player in the club, which they did, but it was nowhere near. The conversations went back and forwards. We've been writing for probably four or five months that Alexander Isaac wanted to play for, and this is an important phrase, a competitive Champions League team. Newcastle getting in the Champions League does not make them a competitive team.

6:21Liverpool have aspirations to win this and Liverpool have won 20 league titles. The cast will have an aspiration to get into them. So there is a difference. Sorry, I will come to your point in a second. Alexander Izzak has one Champions League goal. Erlo Haaland has 48 or 49. And Kylian Mbappe has 55. There he's contemporaries. He needs to compete. Team dynamics are interesting because, and it's the same point with Eddie Howe, who looks quite stressed by the situation, which is understandable. As I said there, no strikers. Today, his choice is no strikers or Alexander, or no strikers, Willis Sula or Anthony Gordon and makes you forward?

6:58Or can I get Alexander Izzak back into the group? He was well liked before all this kicked off. Would they accept him back? If you were a player and you had one of the world's best centre forwards, Gregor, and on September the 2nd, he hadn't got his move and the club said, right, you either play for us or you play for nobody. As a player, do you accept him back into that group? I think the same thing goes for the fans and Castle fans. I think they are waiting. They didn't turn on him for the two friendly games this weekend when there was 80 ,000 people at St. James as part of the two matches. They're waiting to see how this plays out.

7:31But the story we do this morning about, right, he's moved out of the house that he's been renting here for the three years. That's a big deal. That's physically, you're no longer committed to the region. It's a further sign. But the moves of football fans changes very, very quickly, as you know. So if they haven't signed anybody and we think they're going to push hard for Johan Wiese although there is a£15 million disparity between themselves and Brentford. If they get two forwards in, then the situation changes. And then you think, right, that'll unlock Eddie Howe's position and the club's position to go, right, we can now reluctantly sell this player.

8:06At the minute, they haven't got anybody in. They haven't got one centre forward in. So I can understand the position because it may not seem for the good of team morale, but for the good of the team, you have Isaac on nothing right now. and Eddie Ha will be saying, we're not going into this season without a centre forward. So there's two, oh, we've got left two, two and a half weeks to try and sort out that situation. What we were told when I did the story in June was that Liverpool will say, we will only be interested if the player becomes available, playing it very coy. Newcastle will say, we don't want to sell them.

8:42All that's played out and the contacts we spoke to said, it will be left to Alexander Isaac and his agent to cause as much fuss as to unlock this transfer. And here we are on August the 12th, and it's all playing out exactly as I was told. Bit by bit by bit, Isaac tells his agent to tell the club he wants to leave. He's moving home. He was training on his own. And you're like, right, does it reach the point where the club say we have to sell? But as I come back to that starting point, if you're the head coach of Newcastle United, do you take that risk of letting him leave the building before you have anybody new?

9:16and I'd be surprised if anybody would agree to that. Do we know anything about any other targets aside from Wissa? Because as you say, Callum Wilson's another, he was left in the summer, they are down to the bare bones in that area. At the minute, they're kind of, well, the transfer I thought before, in a way that would make sense, would be Nicholas Jackson. And I thought you've got a young striker that Chelsea will possibly think, hey, I was at the game where he got sent off against Newcastle and Maresca didn't really back his player at all, thought he was too emotional. he's very raw, but he's got pace.

9:49He's got something about him. And you think if Newcastle could do Jackson and Vise, and the one thing about Eddie Howe as a coach, he's developed Alexander-Izac. Alexander-Izac wasn't this player three years ago. You could say Tenali's got better, Gameres has got better, Livramendo's got better. So he will increase the standing of most players that he signs. That would be one that I would keep an eye on Jackson. and Visa appears very keen to come as you would expect. Larsson at Wolves is a player Newcastle are keen on, they like, they've watched. But the problem with the way they've done this summer is everybody will know that they are desperate.

10:29Everybody will know that the price can now go up. Everybody will know that Newcastle, in theory, could be banked at about 120, 130, 140, whatever it is, a million pounds from the sale of Alexander Izzai. So thus, you are paying over the odds. Malik Theor the defender from AC Milan that's coming in is an expensive transfer for somebody that wasn't top of their list that may be the way this summer plays out overspending for players that weren't first choices well let's go through the ins and outs it's not a long list on the ins as you say Anthony Alanga 52 or 55 million from Nottingham Forest 55 million seems to be it's a position you've been trying to fill for a long time on the right wing Cordero are free from Malaga Aaron Ramsdale on loan from Southampton out Sean Longstaff to Leeds for 12 million Lloyd Kelly 14.5 million to Juventus a lot of release players as well including Jamal Lewis John Roddy Callum Wilson I've said before Dubravka has gone to Burnley so I mean where does this leave Newcastle I mean I'm still looking through their team today and their squad and you think you've got two positions two players for two good players in every position possibly a right side centre half you're missing up front it's the glaring hole you've got Barnes and Gordon on the left you've got Murphy who's been brilliant and Alanga now on the right you've got one of the best midfields in the league possibly a bit light in sort of support there what does this mean for Newcastle's season after because you've been here before too this is the thing, the other thing last summer's felt almost the same although it was maybe not a player of Isak's statue who clubs were sniffing around there seemed a sense of paralysis in the transfer market and it turned out to be the best season in recent history, as we remember from your last appearance on the podcast.

12:18I'm glad you remember that. The difference with the transfer window 12 months ago is Newcastle could not spend money and the moves for Mark Gay would have been financed by a sale in January. So the one thing Newcastle have not quite done, apart from, I would say, Elliot Anderson, is sell players that Eddie Howe was desperate to keep. sorry to keep so Miguel Almeron Kelly squad members that he ideally would have kept but again Newcastle had PSR hanging over them in January so to avoid that they sold more players and they squeezed the squad down and in fairness Eddie Howe he kind of he took a small group and said right if you give everything you have we might get to where we want to be they'd conked out by the final game of the season against Everton and it was kind of what was it the sending off for Emi Martinez, which in theory gets them just to squeeze over the line.

13:11It's them tiny moments, that tiny deal. So they have more money to spend. They just haven't been able to spend it. The club at the top level is light. There is a chief executive, Darren Neils, who is away now getting treatment for an illness. Paul Mitchell, the sporting director, left. So it doesn't feel very strong. Eddie Howe and Andy Howe are more involved in transfers. And that's a lot for a head coach should take on, planning a summer, preparing for a Champions League campaign, preparing for four competitions and being involved in the recruitment because the clubs have just got bigger and bigger from maybe that model of 25 or 30 years ago.

13:52So the thing to remember, the point that I was alluding to before there was when Newcastle last in the Champions League two years ago, they bought a Chelsea Reserve, a Southampton defender, a Leicester City winger. Was that the summer Leicester got relegated on? It might have been, I'm not sure. And they bought Sandro Tornoli from AC Milan. They weren't competing against anybody. They weren't fighting against Liverpool or Manchester United or Chelsea, who have Liverpool and Mania that have 20 titles each and Chelsea have six Premier League titles. I think there's been an error, a strategic error, in who they've tried to compete with to get players.

14:30and perhaps they've been punching above their weight a little bit. And that's why it's a difficult reality to tell any Castell fans, like, these are ginormous football clubs, okay? I would, sorry, I have to keep having to have this conversation with the Castell fans. I would say Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man United are your top three in the world. Probably then Liverpool and Bayern Munich, yeah, after that. The Castell have won one trophy in 70 years and are full of ambition, but their turnover is less than 400 million. It's probably less than half of Man United. they're trying to catch up so much ground that I'm not convinced it's doable and it certainly isn't doable in the short term.

15:07And that's why this has been a really punishing window because the fans have had to watch Liverpool sign like a Tigue, Liverpool come for Isak, Man United come for Cesc, Gio Pedro goes to Chelsea. But it's the first time they've really gone nose to nose in a transfer, probably since 1996, when they somehow through Kevin Keegan managed to get Alan Shearer ahead of Man United. but it's too difficult to do that now Just for you and a final question then and you know on that kind of bigger picture idea is there a point in time where the owners see how challenging it is going to be to break into the elite unless spending rules change and you know there already seems to be some doubt in some areas about how committed they are to the project like is that is that fair do you think that could continue to grow if they look and see this is an impossible sort of landscape for them to really compete on I conversation bottom line is you never know do the conversations with people around Piffa that they are still committed to the project I think it's gone slower than people thought it would they are you know that training ground Alexander Izak is on his own every afternoon is the same one Danny Castaneda were at 20 years ago £15 million has been spent on it, but it's inferior to Leicester, to Tottenham, to Man United, to Man City.

16:34And obviously players are aware of that so that there is a slowing down in that sense of the project. They have invested an awful lot of money. They would have invested more if they could have, but the rules are there and there's not much to do about PSR apart from try to increase your revenue and the revenue is increasing at a dramatic speed. but it's got a huge catch-up. The reason those Newcastle fans moaned for whatever it was, the 12, 13 years of Mike Ashley was because in most things, if you're not moving forwards, you're moving backwards. So they kept moving backwards and further, they kept losing ground and it's really difficult to catch up with those top, top clubs.

17:14It's why you have to probably be smart in the transfer market and you have to buy Lewis Hall and Livramento and develop them to the point where you think, when that first six months, you would never have said that could be England's full-back pairing for five, ten years. Now you'd say that is possibly an argument. This year they've gone high because they have more money to spend. They've tried to spend it and have failed so far. Yes, I'm sure the Saudis would have wanted the pitcher to have gone a lot quicker, but at the same time they've never shown any inclination to kind of take the Chelsea path of we've just sold a hotel, we've just sold the Chelsea women's team and they're 300 million quid richer somehow.

17:57They've never taken that Manchester City route of, right, we'll challenge every rule that you've got in the court of law. It's much, and if you bear in mind the controversy when the Saudis came, they may be thinking, we're quite happy to be in there. And at the same time, at the same time, we live in an impatient society in what we're told, four, four and a half years. Newcastle have reached, who were on the brink of relegation, have qualified for the Champions League twice. have reached two cup finals and have won their first major domestic trophy in seven years. So in that sense, there is a real sense of achievement.

18:36However, it's that next big gap to try and jump and the fans don't want to wait. Okay, finally, Tom Clark would probably sack me if I don't ask for a prediction. I want two predictions, in fact, for you. I want a prediction about Isak and the end game here and I want a prediction for the season where will Newcastle how will Newcastle fare given all we've just spoken about and the fact that they're competing on four fronts this season Eddie Howe has always said he wants to be competitive in every game which I admire he probably should write off the competition that they won and say right we don't we can't compete on four competitions we're going to give up on the League Cup and it will seem terrible because it was the best day in the club's modern history, that final.

19:20But if you want to have a competitive season with this current squad, you can't do it. At the same time, there are still a lot of days to go before the window shuts. So there may be another four players coming. That's highly probable, in which case it's difficult to say. With that core of players you've mentioned, with Eddie Howe, with the centre forward, maybe it's two, they will be competing in the top six because that's how well-organised they are. That's how good, how is it his job. they were I think Rue missing out on James Trafford for quite a while and we'll see what happens with the Izzac situation as to what's going to happen with that Alexander Izzac I've watched other journalists say he definitely won't he definitely will and I go you don't know if Ronaldo can leave Man United anything can happen if Maurice Johnson can sign for Celtic and then sign for Rangers in the same summer anything can happen I love your historical little references my little historical get out of jail cards um i don't know the desire i think it feels maybe it's in light of the story we've done this morning that the way of patience from the fans and potentially the club is moving against alexander is like staying for the first time um so let me think the the confided in a family member who one of the few people in the world i trust with every story that i have and around that just before like the june the 23rd night said to that person sorry i think alexander is like he's going to liverpool so therefore that was my opinion back in june i still think he's going do i think he's going i think he's going i think he's going um but it means there's going to be another um several more twists and turns on this and it may get a bit uglier before we reach that conclusion it'll be fascinating to see and you can read all about it on the times with website first still loads to get into the Promoter Trio fascinating three clubs who've come up and our friends from the North Martin more clubs for you to cover in the next season before we get on to a club by club breakdown of the promoted teams though we thought we'd dig a little deeper into an issue we've been discussing in the podcast for a while now which is the mammoth challenge promoted clubs face to survive in the Premier League the last six promoted teams have all been relegated, of course, and it's 10 of the last 15 if you go back a little further than that.

21:50It's a huge issue, the Premier League becoming potentially a closed shot. And the Times data journalist George Willoughby has written a brilliant analysis on the subject explaining how the gulf between divisions has grown, exploring why, and looking at some of the ways Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley might just be able to buck the recent trend. George, good to have you here. Thank you, Gregus. Thank you for having me on. This is a fascinating piece, and as I say, something we've spoken about a lot on the podcast. A few stats to start with that jumped out to me. Last season's combined tally between Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich was 59 points, the lowest to date, and that followed 66 the year before, which was the previous record low.

22:31And you say the points tally has been steadily decreasing, really, since around 2010. Why would you say that is? I know there's a lot of reasons at play here, but just give us an overview of what you're going to research for. Yeah, there are a lot of reasons for that. And just to quickly take it back slightly further, if you go back to the late 90s, that points total reached high is 112. So this is a really, really significant decrease in number of points and teams are finding it harder than ever. And as you say, there are a lot of reasons. And I think one of the reasons that I pointed to in this piece is the actual overall strength of the league itself.

23:09We know a lot about the top six, the spending power, and how great they are. I think it's also well worth looking into the such now improved recruitment models of the rest of the league and the teams at the Brightons, the Forest, the Brentfords have really established themselves as some of the league's best. And I looked at the table for last season and compared that to the average. This was going back from 1995 season and that Forest outperformed that position in seventh place by seven points. And just overall, the strength of the league is so much better and it has completely taken away any gimmies or very easy winnable games at the bottom.

23:47So immediately before even talking about play styles or transfers, anything like that, you're going into a league that is significantly better across the board. Of course, a part of that is because of this yo-yoing of teams between the Championship and Premier League and the ability for the other 17 or so clubs to establish themselves, guaranteed revenue year after year. and that's kind of also entrenching an established group of Premier League clubs as well. Possibly you wouldn't think would be established Premier League clubs. Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, a lot of these are smart clubs.

24:24Fulham, you know, a lot of teams who have historically been outside the Premier League are very well established now. Yeah, quite simply, and this is very, very hard, you just have to stay up. When you're in that first season, you have to stay up because there is scope and it is very possible as you mentioned there there are multiple case studies of teams and models that you can follow where you can have success it feels like Brighton sell their better players every single season yet they somehow keep finding ways to bring in great talent and are one of the league's best and there's so many teams as you say Bournemouth I think Brentford would be one to watch because I would put them in that category but obviously they've had quite a few departures from the club but there is certainly it is very possible I don't want to put too much of a down on people seasons heading into the new year it's possible to follow these clubs that have found success but yeah it is very difficult Another fascinating graphic in the piece was the way that teams shift their playing style when they're promoted so there was, I think the average drop in possession is like 11 or 12 % some teams were as high as 18 % drop off in the amount they see the ball when they're promoted so that in itself is another challenge that has to be navigated with great difficulty.

25:38Absolutely, yes. So I could say every team that's come up since 2014-15 season has dropped possession from that season from the Championship to the Premier League. So it is inevitable you're going to see less of the ball, which is a massive change in play style, without a doubt. And if we take Southampton, for example, obviously had a very disappointing year last season, averaged 66 % possession in the Championship that following year. That dropped to 48.8, which actually is on the higher side for a promoted club, but they tried to stick with that same approach and it quite simply did not work.

26:12He was sacked by December, Russell Martin. And there's so many other great examples. They say it was actually Norwich City in 2021-22 that dropped by 18 percentage points. That's such a big shift. And you've gone from a league where you're dominating the ball, you're dictating the play, to then being on the back foot. And then the big challenge there is you're going from more slow, intricate style of play, then you go into very much a transition-heavy league, dominated by high turnovers, fast-paced. And to make that change in such a short period of time is an increasingly difficult task. You have one window, so to speak, and it's very interesting to see how clubs go about it.

26:55Do you bring in a massive overhaul of players and spend money and completely change the way you play? or do you stick what you've got, try and minimise your spending and build for future seasons, possibly even factoring getting relegated or building on top of a season in the Premier League with all that money. So it's such a small window, a small chance to improve and get better that it's becoming harder than ever for promoted teams. Just finally throwing it forward then, I mean, you kind of drew comparisons between playing styles. Burnley, you say, was similar to Southampton. you drew a parallel between Leeds and Liverpool actually in the sort of style of play last season obviously in the Championship but the sort of dominance of their play and you drew a parallel between Sunderland and Ipswich quite direct not quite as much build up so what do you expect to see from those teams and what do you think they need to change?

27:47Well yeah it's a good question so yeah if we take Burnley Southampton the reason why they are similar is that they certainly follow a more slower intricate style of play in their build or not so many direct passes and alluded to it slightly before, but obviously Southampton did struggle trying to play that same way. They were taking the context of Scott Parker in the Premier League as well. He's not really found a way to find a style of player, establish himself as a successful Premier League manager so far Burnley. The big question is, if you go from dominate the ball in the championship, is he going to stay with that pragmatic approach into the Premier League or is he going to need to change it up, concede the ball a little bit more and play on the counter?

28:27And Leeds and Liverpool, yeah, they are similar in a way. Leeds are actually the anomaly, so to speak, in terms of the playing styles, how they match your Liverpool. And that was despite they have the championship leading possession figures as well. But I think they aren't afraid to make it up slightly depending on the game situation. So I think Leeds would be an interesting one to watch. But if historically speaking and the data suggests that they are going to be under 50 % possession, that's going to drop. That would be expected. so we see how they change there and you're right Sunderland and Ipswich were similar in a way they're somewhat used to maybe not having the ball playing swiftly on a counter-attack I think that would be Sunderland's method going into the Premier League season so something they are somewhat used to maybe don't need to make as big an adjustment as say Burnley Finally how many points will they need?

29:18I mean it used to always be getting to the magic 40 but now it's like high 20s possibly Possibly Possibly Now surprisingly And I was surprised to myself 38 points should in theory And I'd put that in italics Should be enough But that is not a given at all And I think Do you take that over an average Over how many seasons? Yeah that's going back from 1995 season So 38 points should be enough But you get some anomalies Turn your mind back to 2002-03 season West Ham got relegated with 42 points And also West Brom holder record that maybe they're happy with but in 2004-05 they stayed up by only winning six times so it's certainly like it's not a given but 38 points should if there would be enough but I guess for the three promoted sides coming up there will be some hope that there are a few sides that could find themselves being dragged into it.

30:15We mentioned a couple of names already looking at West Ham Brentford, Wolves it doesn't take a lot for a penalty season to go very wrong so small margins they could be dragged in and that's what we're hoping for but 30 points could be enough but talking at 38 points is still that golden figure which they need to aim for Well it's a fascinating piece I urge everyone to go to the Times website and read it and after the break we'll be taking a closer look at Sunderland Leeds and Burnley Join us then

30:59Welcome back to the game podcast from the Times. I'm Gregor Robertson with Martin Hardy and George Willoughby. Okay, let's get into the promoter tree. I think we should start with the champions, Martin. Leeds United. Let's start with the outs and ends as well. Seven signings so far. Lucas Numecha, free from Wolfsburg. Sebastian Bornau, five million from Wolfsburg as well. Jakob Beal 15 million from Udinese Gabriel Goodmanson 10 million from Lille Sean Longstaff as we said 12 million from Newcastle Anton Stack 19 million from Hoffenheim and Lucas Perry 6 '5 goalkeeper 13.9 million from Lyon Martin there's a recurring theme with all of Leeds signings they're all very big lads indeed it seems that there's been there's been a bit of analysis going on at Elland Road over the summer about what they need to survive and they think physicality and size and stature is going to be an important thing for them to stay up I like Daniel Farga, I think he has really sound footballing principles, I thought it was very hard when people throw Norwich at him being in his company when he's explained as gently as he can that the Norwich players that he had, that he went up with had never played in the Premier League before the team got promoted and didn't play again, largely.

32:24So it was a team that was massively overachieving and wasn't strengthened. And it comes on him that perceived fairly. You know, when Mourinho was mentioned, there's a possible change earlier in the summer. But that word was used before there. You have to be pragmatic. I think if Leeds and we'll go to Sonnenberg to survive, and I have big doubts it's possible for any of the three because it's just so difficult. Then the Stadium of Light and Elland Road could be significant parts of that. And the physicality of that team at Leeds will be important too. They were a small front four, five, whatever it was last year.

33:04You look at the size of an Arsenal, even Manchester City at certain games, you have to be able to match that physicality now. So there has been that change. In fairness to Daniel Farrer, he does not think the transfer window is anywhere near successful yet. They need strength in an upfront. Everybody's been talking about Newcastle in that position, but Leeds have lost Joseph and Bamford's gone. Solomon, who was really important last year, has gone back to Tottenham. So these are words from Daniel Farby himself. In comparison to our championship squad, we have not improved in the offense. That's a real warning sign ahead of a season where you have to improve your quality.

33:48So I expect Leeds to come through with two or three more big signings. I'm not sure who they'll be at this point, but I think they have to to give themselves half a chance. Yeah, Lucas Nemecha, who's aimed on a free from Wolfsburg, the only striker among those seven signings, who I should say have an average height of six foot two. So they are like, there's definitely a tactic so far as to, Norwich were seen as kind of lightweight and you know a lot of teams when they're promoted now there's been a category of them Norwich Burnley under Vincent Company Southampton they're kind of you know looked at as a bit naive for trying to play the same kind of football it seems that Leeds are actually kind of taking heed of that a little bit and are going to try and do things a little bit differently you would think so at the same time Daniel Farrer does have a kind of a style to playing football as George has just said there they like to have the ball which just won't happen this season but there's an interesting element to all this which is that Vinny company who I think is a was a great player and a brief like press comments and stuff comes across he's a really good bloke but he played the way that he wanted to see a Vinny company team play and Russell Martin it's happened played the way that Russell Martin wanted to see a Russell Martin team play and it wasn't productive and the two points totals for the three promoted teams which I think he just rattled off before there were 59 points last season and 66 points the season before not a huge advocate of Sean Dyche's style of football but he created something that Burnley that kept them up Vincent Kompany plays Vinny Kompany's football and gets to buy a Munich job after Burnley get relegated and Russell Martin sees that and relegated and then gets the job in another great a huge club in Rangers so there is that boardroom desire now to play football a certain way Wayne Rooney spoke about it Birmingham said to him you're going to play this way probably when he didn't realize it that he was kind of undermining himself when he said after two sessions or two games I said to the board we can't play that way like the idea and obviously it doesn't win games get sacked at the start of that January transfer window the I think of the three promoter clubs Leeds will probably stick more to Daniel Farker's style of football than the other two.

36:08LeBris has proved extremely adept at being pragmatic at Sunderland. And I think Scott Parker is incredibly pragmatic as a coach. Watching an interview with him, he says, culturally, we're going to have to prepare for the fact that they only lost two league games last season. They could lose more games in a month than they lost in a campaign. And it's the impact upon that dressing room. I can't even remember how many clean sheets they kept last season was it 29 was it more 30 that's not going to happen so the mood inside of that dressing room is going to be what's so important for him but he's as I said he's fairly pragmatic and I think he has evolved his coaching style I'm sure it was was it the nine they conceded against Liverpool with Burnley I don't think they'd conceded nine goals after seven months at Burnley so that tells you he is learning from from experience so I think they will be more pragmatic.

37:03The fact that the three clubs are in the north, the fact that I get slagged off even as a northerner for saying this, it is colder. Burnley, Turf Moor, it's probably the coldest ground you will go to. Get the crowd a bit angry at night time games. All them elements, especially at Ellen Road, which is the most hostile place you will watch a Premier League game of football. All them factors are going to be important in terms of setting the tempo, getting the crowd in the game. So yes, we'll see what happens but I think Farg of the three would be the one that sticks to his footballing principles the most George Leeds back in the Premier League after two seasons but they've only spent I think three of the last 20 in the top flight there's a sort of idea that the Premier League is better with Leeds in it do you do you buy into that do you agree with that well I think we can certainly say the season with Jesse March and Bielsa they were certainly entertainers entertainers and Martis touched upon it there it was quite interesting actually just to give you more of a technical point of this is that the attacking wires are seemingly quite short but that was not a problem for them when they were in the Premier League they actually scored quite a few goals 48 goals actually more than some of the squads that stayed up so it certainly held their own in that regard and it's quite true now they conceded 78 that season as well so they certainly seem to say they're adapting they're addressing those issues so I think yeah Leeds big club big club Ellen Road great atmosphere I think you know certainly benefits from a stature of Leeds United but yeah I'm interested to see how they do I think Martin's spot on I think Cracker is a very astute adapt coach so looking forward to seeing how they compete Martin finally the kind of as you say the strikers are a big hole I think they're looking for a number 10 another winger Ruiz from Fulham as someone's been mentioned Dominic Calvert-Lewin someone who's kind of you know his talent's clear it's just whether he can stay fit and he's left Everton obviously looking for looking for another club any any you know do you think either of those would be a good fit for Leeds any other ideas of any more potential targets well the loss of Solomon I've seen Ben Doak at Liverpool is one player who's been mentioned and saw him on several occasions at Middlesbrough last season there was Middlesbrough pushing for promotion when he was playing in those middles where he slipped down the table when he wasn't a real handful he may bring the average height of the Leeds team down to a level you're happier with Gregor because he's not the tallest but he's very quick very skilful and wants to push on and it's whether or not he's quite in Arnie Slott's plans this season or whether they think you know what that would be a good move for us Cal Balloon if you get him fit is a good player but they've had Patrick Bamford filling that role of could be a good player for two seasons and you let him go and Calvert-Lewin.

40:02It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Calvert-Lewin because there is another team a little bit further north than Leeds that we've mentioned who may need a centre forward and may need to do something in a panic. A team, a side that signs Shevki Kuki after they got rid of Andy Carroll. So yeah, there's a lot of possibilities and I wonder if Calvert-Lewin is sitting at home thinking, this is all right. I may yet be in demand And as I said if you're getting fit But it's just such a huge fit Such a huge if rather If you're getting fit you have a player that I think Can still impact upon the Premier League Okay let's go A little bit further north still then to Sunderland 10 new recruits At the time of recording Enzo Le Fay 20 million from Roma Which was secured as soon as Sunderland were promoted through the playoffs Habib Diara 30 million from Strasbourg Simon Adingra £21 million from Brighton Chemsdine Talby £16 million from Bruges Noah Siddiqui £15 million from Union San Giloua I could go on and on there are a lot of signs the other big one of course is Granit Xhaka from Bayer Leverkusen Martin this is it's quite possible that Sunderland go on to break the record for a promoted team and how much they spend in the transfer market Nottingham Forest spent, I think,£140 million in 2022.

41:27They're up to about£125 already. Could be£150 with add-ons and they're still in the market. So, first of all, can you explain why they need to do this and also how they can do this, given all the financial restrictions a lot of clubs are facing these days? As we are on air, I've just been sending a message saying, Southern AFC has today completed the signing of defender Omar Alderete from Getafe for an underscores fee. So there's another player to throw into this pot. How can they do this? Their PSR levels, their salary, I think, off the top of my head, sorry, the turnover off the top of my head was about£17 million.

42:08Sorry, their salaries were£70 million. Suddenly their income is going to be boosted by£150 million. They have stacks and stacks of space and PSR to go, right, let's have a real go this. big excitement around some of the players you've mentioned there about diara adingra we've seen some of in wrestling and and xhaka of course who i think has cost quite a bit of money but will give real stability experience anger fire will feed off the crowd at the stadium of light unquestionably and we should say they need experience because there are very young like a lot of kind of homegrown players very young team last season that were promoted yeah but this is where the dynamic becomes interesting and it it's I was at the semi-final when Dan Ballard scored in the second minute of injury time at the end of extra time and I was at Wembley when um they scored in injury time to win and it incredible occasions especially well both were incredible occasions but at Wembley there's players fought on the knee hugging each other and even to possibly Regilibrous but that probably not that yet you look at them players and thinking and there's a chapter of this club that's just closed right now and it means that you probably won't get to go into the next stage.

43:24Whereas if Sunderland had lost at Wembley, we'd be now talking about Anthony Patterson, Dan Neal and all these players at LocalBorn, some of them at LocalBorn, sorry, who have helped rebuild a football club that was in turmoil a couple of years ago. So the dynamic is, can you bring in the 11 new players and retain that spirit that gets you to win games, massive games in football in injury time twice. And that's going to perhaps be the difficulty, even the fact that Enzo Lefeu now, a player who I think is an excellent footballer and I was fortunate to spend an hour in his time towards the end of last season when he spoke to me about everything.

44:04And as a journalist, as you know, he's sometimes very wary of broaching certain subjects, but he was happy to talk about his father who had spent time in jail and happy to talk about his father's suicide. So you do have a connection when you speak to somebody in that kind of depth. He was this brilliant French player who Le Brice had had as a youngster and had been at Roma for 20 million euros and was this key change in Sonnen's history because now they're signing a player of real talent. He's now kind of, his nose is out of joint a bit and he's not guaranteed a starting point next season. and Reggie Labris is talking about he has game starters and game finishers.

44:48It's just that, as you'll be aware, Gregor, as a former freshman footballer, you'd always want to be the starter and not the potential finisher. It doesn't sound quite as good. Although, these days, especially for forward players, you look at the front three and they will be told, empty the tank on 65 minutes. And then we've got another three speed merchants coming on, like perhaps Newcastle were aiming to do before they lost Alex Izak and Calvin Wilson. What has to happen very quickly is this has to gel, I think. There've possibly been good fortune. It's sometimes in the fixture list. They have West Ham at home and the ground will be absolutely bouncing for the first game of the season.

45:33There is a new walkway over the river from the city to the ground, which won't quite be finished. But you have an area around the ground that's now clearly been regenerated. The stadium has been given the love that it's needed for quite a while. You know, almost built in 1997. The fans will see the change when they get to the ground. It's the return of the Premier League, all the awfulness for the supporters of playing in the third tier. So you're going to have this hellishly noisy, bouncy crowd for day one. You might forget that West Ham have got some good players and a good manager and may be quite keen to pop that bubble and change their own direction.

46:12but after that you then got Burnley away Brentford at home Crystal Palace and Crystal Palace away and you might be going right we've got to get some if you're Sunland you say we've got to get some points out of these four games get us up and running we've got the new play we've got the bounce from promotion we've got the the supporters can't believe that they are being so busy in the transfer transfer window but they just need to hit the ground really hit the ground running of all those teams I think it's going to be incredibly hard for all three teams to survive. I've got no idea would I favour Sunderland and Leeds above Burnley?

46:45Possibly. And as George said, you're going to have to drag a Wolves or a Brentford really drag them into a fight that they're not used to. Tottenham were fourth bottom last season on 38 and I think if they'd been pushed would have got more points it's just they realised they could concentrate on potentially win a European competition. You've got to make it a real dogfight at the bottom and to do that all the three teams have got to start winning games at home straight, which is stating the obvious to get that sun and have got to create the chemistry amongst those players and that'll be the big challenge for Reggie Libris are some parallels perhaps with Forrest I mean although they've not been out of the Premier League quite as long as 2017 they spent time in League 1 they're starting from a really low base you know like their squad was worth 10 million that was promoted through the playoffs and they've had to throw a lot of money at it I mean not every team does but they've seen fit to invest a lot of money in the team the one thing maybe listeners don't know much about is the man at the helm, Reggie LeBreeze, because he came from nowhere.

47:45I mean, the Sunderland fans didn't know who he was 12 months ago. So can you tell us, you've also interviewed him, just tell us quickly a little bit about his sort of rise as well, because it's remarkable. I was fortunate to do an exclusive interview just before the playoffs. And he was living, when he joined, to kind of stand up your point there, he was living in a hotel in Durham. And I said for two weeks, did anybody know who you were? and he said no, nobody. Nobody in the hotel even knew I was. And I was kind of, this was just before the playoffs. Has that changed? He went, yes, that's changed just a little bit.

48:18Somebody who's worked with young players a great deal in France, respected as a coach, intelligent bloke, educated, learned English about two years ago, I guess, probably with an eye on this happening, was prepared to buy into that sudden model, which some probably UK managers would be less keen to do which was that we are here to develop players and we'll have to sell them so you get promoted and Bellingham's already gone but it's like there are new players to get now it would be really interesting to see if he does have a fallout with Enzo Lefebvre because that is a player that he has looked after since he was a kid to the point whereby he was so involved that he almost moved him to a different because of the troubles he was having almost moved him into a private education to help him come through and the reason Enzo Le Fay arrives in Sunderland is because of Regis Labris and the feeling he has with the players he then takes the foot off the gas before the playoffs and suddenly lose five games on the trot and there's obviously a great deal of disquiet about this and he was like we've done the studies the team physiologically needed to regroup to go back strengthen and come back and it works by the thinnest of margins to get through in the playoffs but yeah quite a smart bloat intelligent quite funny but I but I think within there is a ruthless streak and as I said we'll say that this season he's just got to get them to gel very quickly George Sunderland as you said they were and as Martin's alluded to they kind of their style of play evolved a bit through the season and they were quite a bit more direct and sort of dogged towards the end of the season and the playoffs.

50:09Do you expect that to continue in the Premier League? How do you see them attacking the Premier League? I think it has to. I think the trend through all three of these teams and why they struggled last time in the Premier League is that they all conceded too many goals. 80 plus goals. So you're not going to stay up conceding that many goals. So you have to be dogged. You've got to be secure. You've got to be stable whilst offering some threat on the break and Sunderland have in spending money. They've chosen that approach. They've chosen to bring in wholesale new players. But as I've sent you, these are not just standard signers.

50:41These are established players. Granit Xhaka and great potential with Edingram. These are really good players that should fit in. But gelling is the most important thing. And everyone spends, take a look at Ipswich. They spent good money last time on good players as well. It doesn't always mean it's going to work. Everyone could spend money now in the Premier League. So they only have to be really solid, really secure, and also offer something on the break, which they have been doing in the championship. So as I said before, they're probably quite well suited to this. So in terms of the style of play, they may not need to change too much and adding some extra quality of player.

51:18It could lead themselves to being quite a dangerous team to play against, particularly that. Okay. Gregor, the one thing I would say is, which George has mentioned there, In the last four transfer windows, the newly promoted teams have spent almost a billion pounds. So the trend now is you're going to have to spend£100 million to give yourself a chance. What Ipswich did, if you look at the signing of De Lapp, they bought somebody that somebody else will want. Now, I know they couldn't increase his value because of the close in the contract, but they're buying players that are young and potentially will therefore, even in relegation, have a value, a transfer value.

51:55and I think within Sonnen's plan that is there that the players talk about the pathway the pathway might be that Sonnen get relegated and the player goes on my CV now is 12 months in the Premier League and I've developed and I'm better and therefore their value goes up so what Sonnen have become very good at on a speakman since it became a sport now is getting players and adding value and selling Jack Clark is a prime example come for 15-20 million and they are better without him now But now it's interesting to be seen. Will Xhaka be better than Bellingham? I'd say possibly. Possibly. You don't know.

52:32Xhaka might go have a really great first month. He may have a really awful first month. He might not like getting beat three times out of five. We'll see. You'd expect him to maybe have a bigger influence, you could say. Yeah, no, definitely. Definitely. I mean, that's not to be disrespectful to Bellingham, but that is somebody you think will go around and rattle people in a dressing room if things aren't quite correct. but coming back to that point which Scott Parker made you have to get used to losing football matches and you have to react to it one final thing when I spoke to Gary Speed rest his soul a long time ago and he was a big advocate of Sam Allardyce when he was at Bolton because he went to Bolton in the later stage of his career and he said what Sam the brilliance of Sam Allardyce was he made sure that when we were playing the teams around us the preparation was out of this world and we won those games because those are the games that will keep you in the division.

53:27Okay, on to Burnley finally. And I think their record actually kind of encapsulates over the last four seasons, encapsulates what really we've been talking about, about the challenge facing the promoted clubs. This is the record in the last four seasons. Relegated from the Premier League with 35 points, promoted as champions of the championship with 101 points, relegated from the Premier League again with 24 points and promoted from the championship. with 100 points. So this is the kind of universe, this mezzanine level that many clubs are now finding themselves in. And the challenge is getting beyond that.

54:04So Burnley are seeing 13 new players. Again, they've gone pretty big. Basho Humphreys, 12 million from Chelsea. Marcus Edwards, who was on loan from Sporting Lisbon last season, 8.4 million. Came through at Spurs, interesting signing. Zian Fleming and Jadon Anthony, their loans were made permanent from Millwall and Bournemouth. Alex Twanzeby on free from Ipswich Town and again I could go on and on Leslie Ugochokou £23 million from Chelsea Armando Broja £20 million from Chelsea players who I think could be good in the Perm League and then Kyle Walker Kyle Walker is a fascinating one who comes on a free from Manchester City but the other thing to say is they've lost important players Martin you referenced their defensive record last season 16 goals in 46 games conceded it's the best record in English league history 30 clean sheets but they've lost CJ Egan Riley centre half to Marseille and of course they've lost James Trafford who's gone back to Man City for 27 million so if we think that they're starting from a solid base that's already been ripped up a little bit and then there's the whole issue about Scott Parker too I mean Scott Parker's like FARC has got a point to prove in the Premier League both have been promoted three times never cut it in the Premier League how do you see Burnley's season going Martin?

55:26The two sign-ins you mentioned there Bugachugu and Armando Broha from Chelsea they feel to me quite good sign-ins If Brodra can stay fit, absolutely Yeah, if Brodra can stay fit yeah, he gives you that four-goal point he's big, he's aggressive the kind of player they had with Chris Wood with so much success for the seasons when he was at Turf Moor. And in terms of relegation, his sale that January was probably one of the big moments. And the fact that Newcastle bought him kind of was a punch on the nose of a rival and Burnley never really recovered from that. There was a game last season which was Burnley against Leeds and it was a terrible game of football and it was goalless and it was a massive match because both teams didn't want to win.

56:12Barker, as we discussed, is a manager that likes to coach on the front foot, likes to have his teams playing. he said afterwards which I thought was interesting they cut off any chance of you making of you creating anything so that that whole process which I think is the evolution of Scott Parker was to not give up a single sniff of a chance so they poured down with rain after I'm there was a period in the game where I thought Leeds have realised they're probably not going to get beat unless they really take a chance so it was like both teams it was like one of them World Cup group qualifiers.

56:48Both teams went, we're quite happy with this. We'll just go home. But it was the sense of Farga saying they are brilliant defensively and cutting out M. And he said, they don't give you a chance. So that is what I think Parler will carry this season. I think you'll look at a really defensive side, incredibly well organised. Martin Dubravquez had a really good career in Newcastle. They've obviously signed him to go in there as well. But the loss of Trafford, I think it's one that will alter that kind of belief in this team that can't concede goals. But we'll see. But again, the fact that clubs spend so much money and alter so many personnel, at the minute, that's not working.

57:30But the three teams have tried it again. So we'll see. To their supporters, it says, look, we're having a go here and we're signing a bit of experience. and we'll see how things go for them but it will be a hard state in the obvious state but this is going to be a really hard season for them. George, Kyle Walker a bit of a surprise that he's gone to Burnley I think he wanted to stay in the North West he'd been on loan at AC Milan last season legs are slowing a little bit but you would imagine he'll still be someone who could turn out to be a really important signing for them if they are to have that solid defence that Mark's talked about that will potentially keep them in the Premier League.

58:08Absolutely yeah you have to blend experience with youth and Kyle Walker offers an abundance of that. This is a similar thing for Manchester City, Pep Guardiola, they're willing to let players go. Pep doesn't think they're at their peak of their career anymore. I don't think that's a disservice to Kyle Walker. He's still obviously a very valuable and useful player. I'm sure Scott Parker can find a way to hopefully limit those situations where Kyle Walker was caught out slightly with his legs, with his pace. But obviously Parker found unbelievable success last season in cutting those chances out so I think he'll use him in a way that he isn't exposed as much before, I think it'll be really interesting to see how he fits into that.

58:47Fascinating to see how all three promoter teams do and Newcastle and how the Alexander Isak saga plays out Martin, good luck to you mate in the coming days and weeks Kier's going nice to chat. Thanks George we'll be back on Thursday when I'll be joined by Martin Samuel, Johnny Northcroft and Tony Cascarino So see you then.