233. The Trump Doctrine: Why Europe Is Failing & Who Wins the Warner Bros Bid?

0:12Before we get into today's episode, we've got some exciting news, haven't we Steph? Yeah, the excitement in your voice. Yeah, we do, because we are going to do our first ever live show. We're bringing the rest of his money to the stage for the first time next year. And we'd love it if you would join us. I mean, this is an exciting time because the thing is, with a live show, anything could happen. Who knows what you might do, Robert? I'll probably sing. Oh, God. We want people to come, though. Don't be mean. They can check out my singing online. But this is a chance to get our thoughts as and when they pop into our heads as well.

0:51You know, who knows what will be happening that day we're on. But, you know, you're getting the news first with us and analysis and everything as well. And let's be absolutely clear. It's obviously going to be a private conversation just between us and a few hundred of you. So we'll reveal all our secrets. Yeah, of course we will. Let me tell you the details, though. It's on the 4th of September, 2026. 2026. It's part of the Goalhanger groups. The rest is fest. See what we've done there with the name. We're taking over the Southbank Centre in London for three days of shows from all of the Goalhanger universe.

1:24So the rest is politics to Sherlock and core. So tickets are on sale now. I mean, our promise to you is that what we're talking about will be totally relevant to your interest and your lives, search southbankcentre.co.uk to find those tickets. Yeah, southbankcentre.co.uk. Tickets for our show and all the other Goalhanger podcasts are available now. And one final time, southbankcentre.co.uk. Right, let's crack on with the show. Hello and welcome to The Rest Is Money with me, Robert Perston. And me, Steph McGovern. And we are together in the same room, which is unusual. That's so nice. It's been too long, Steph.

2:08I know, it has, hasn't it? But here we are together in the run-up to Christmas as well. We've got lots of episodes. Have you been doing your Christmas shopping then? Is that why you're down? No. Do you know why? I am two things. One is I am the ultimate Christmas shopper, as in I do it throughout the year. So I don't have any to do. Because you're so well organised. So when you see something and you think, have you got my present already? You have. Yeah, yeah. Obviously my present. No, that's so much pressure. How could you? I wish I hadn't asked that question. Yeah, I know. But I just, I hate that pressure at Christmas when everyone's just running about trying to like frantically buy stuff and you just end up buying rubbish or you end up paying too much for it.

2:48So I'm a throughout the year kind of girl. Oh my God, I'm just a sort of SA crisis, last minute panic person, I'm afraid. So have you started? A little bit, yeah. I mean, look, I try to do the, you know, something may land in my inbox, you know. What do you mean? Something lands in your inbox? Well, you know, so there are certain brands I quite like and they'll do something and land in my inbox sort of, you know, with a sort of product. And I think, oh, yeah, so-and-so would like that. So I do. Occasionally, I get triggered to buy something a little bit ahead of time, but mostly I don't. Mostly it is an absolute nightmare.

3:21Okay. So anyone out Christmas shopping in London may see Robert Peston frantically. Just running with too many bags and looking very sweaty. Loads to talk about again. So this is, we're not going to, we're not doing an interview today. We've got loads of great interviews coming up though. So that will be lots of good stuff to listen to over Christmas. But today we are going to have a chat because there's a lot going on, particularly in the States. Yeah, it feels like we should do a sort of America heavy, but it's America and the world. It's sort of how what's happening in America affects us kind of episode.

3:54And the two things that I'm slightly obsessed by the last few days, and I know you've been taking very close interest, is one, this extraordinary national security strategy that was published a few days ago by the White House. And broadly, what is important and, I mean, I would say chilling about it is what it has to say about Europe. Yeah. And it has profound implications, not only for our security, but actually for how we do business throughout the world. So that's sort of one thing we want to talk a bit about. And then I think we're both quite gripped by the soap opera of the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery, which is a more colorful, more exciting takeover contest than actually any that we can remember for decades.

4:48It's absolutely characteristic of the Trump era because it's all about pitting billionaires against each other in a battle for a trophy asset. And Trump himself saying that he will be very much involved in deciding the outcome. And some of the players, well, certainly on the Paramount Skydance side, you know, that's run by a bloke called David Ellison. and his dad is Larry Ellison, who depending on the hour of the day is either the wealthiest man in the world or the second wealthiest man in the world. And he's been pretty close to Trump. So there's all these, you know, it's big money, big personalities, but more, I suppose, bringing it to where this podcast has to end up at some point.

5:33You know, what happens does have implications for all of us, the kind of cultural products that are produced, how they're produced. It has a huge impact on the future of the TV and film industry. And lots of people who work for these companies as well who were wondering what's going to happen to them. And, you know, CNN is in this trophy cabinet, as you say, that Warner Brothers owns. So there's lots of discussion around that because obviously Trump hates CNN. So yeah, should we start then with the national security strategy? So the last one he did was in 2017, wasn't it? And that was much more on the attack of, like, that was a lot more hostile towards Russia and China.

6:09this time you know we've had Putin come out and say it aligns with their vision what Trump's saying China are only kind of referenced as an economic competitor and Europe gets an absolute pasting in all of this doesn't it I mean it's so bad for in terms of what Trump's saying about Europe it is and I think what is significant and you know obviously you know this is relevant to anybody who runs a business or indeed relevant if you happen to run a country outside of America you You know, the big message is what Trump cares about is his half of the world, the Western Hemisphere. He's adapted an American doctrine from the past, which is known as the Monroe Doctrine.

6:52And he's basically saying, we don't really want to intervene anywhere except, you know, in those countries very close to our borders. Right. Right. And so, you know, that that that half of the world, the American hemisphere is saying it's completely legitimate for us to get involved in a military or, you know, direct interventionist kind of way. And we can see this at the moment in terms of the, you know, the sinking of Venezuela's boats and, you know, the threat of war against Venezuela, which is sort of, you know, one of the scariest things that's happening at the moment. But it is, you know, just sort of interesting that what he's broadly saying to China and Russia is don't mess.

7:37If you don't mess with me, I won't particularly mess with you. Now, there are nuances there. He does imply or the paper, shall we say, does imply that they would rather that China doesn't invade Taiwan, which broadly took to people in security services. They do anticipate Taiwan invasion, something like 2027, because that's when China's military will be ready. And it's also a very important centenary in China. It's, I think, 100 years since the founding of the People's Liberation Army. And they do like their anniversaries. And so there is just this view, as I say, in the security community that 27 is when the moment of greatest risk for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

8:26But when you, again, look at why America in this document is most concerned about Taiwan, it's not because there's any reference to the rights of Taiwanese people. It's broadly about the fact that so much of the world's semiconductor capacity is in Taiwan. Obviously, Trump is trying to build up semiconductor manufacturing capacity in the States. Biden actually initiated that. But it's a long process. And, you know, were China to take control of all that manufacturing capacity, that would give them enormous clout over the global economy because we are, you know, so many industries are dependent.

9:09And it's not just industries you think of as, you know, the highest tech. I mean, obviously, you know, it's everything from mobile phones to cars to fridges to everything, you know, runs on these semiconductors. So, you know, the concern for Trump is largely about preventing China having even more control over the global economy, leverage over us. Yeah. And it's that point, isn't it? You know, you think of it as tech, it's all about the kind of high level AI stuff, but you still need that manufacturing base. So these countries where they are, as you say, manufacturing the semiconductors is a key component in the whole global economy.

9:49The stuff that obviously is toxic and shocking is the way that he is instructing our leaders about how to police our borders. Now, whether you think immigration is a huge problem or not, this should be a matter of national decision making, national sovereignty. and you know the two things that he said that were oh that the paper i shouldn't say he but but he does repeat i mean he repeated quite a lot of this in that politico interview that he's just done but the two things that the paper says that are profoundly chilling and upsetting is one there is really implicit support for the political parties on the right uh and in the case of a party like AFT in Germany, the Rassemblement National in France, it looks like support for parties that many people would call far-right parties, right?

10:47And I mean, Nigel Farage would deny that he is far-right, but again, there is implicit support for a party like reform. It just breaks all conventions. Foreign governments, in particular, the president of the United States and the person who was normally historically would have been called the leader of the free world you know these are you know it is not proper for those people to express their views about who they want to see in power in in in europe but what's interesting in all of this is actually that the far-right parties have been quite quiet on all of this because there are a lot of people who support the far right who don't necessarily think trump's a good thing because of the tariffs and stuff so So there was, I read a piece in the New York Times this morning, which was suggesting that, you know, for example, in Germany, you mentioned AFD and they're saying only 20 % of the voters who support the AFD said Trump was good for their country and 47 % said he was bad.

11:48Similarly, in France, the national rally, it was something like 18 % who thought he was good for the country and 43 % who think he's bad. So there is a, like, it doesn't necessarily mean that these parties are, you know, they're Their silence is quite deafening here in terms of this national security strategy coming out. And they're not necessarily supporting it because the people who support far-right groups are worried about things like Trump's tariffs. Bardella, who is technically the leader of the Assemblément Nationale, now that Marine Le Pen has sort of slightly gone to one side. I mean, he has said that he broadly does endorse most of what Trump has been saying about Europe.

12:27But the other bit of it, before we get on to the economics of all of this, yeah, it's appalling. In an official American paper, they would say something that, you know, obviously we've heard people like J.D. Vance, the vice president, say. but to see it in an official you know washington document in that way official policy of the government saying something like you know such is the nature of immigration that there is a risk that within a very short set space of time you know european countries will be controlled by people from an ethnic background you know who will totally change the way of life of of europe this is you know this is that you know toxic great replacement theory this is islamophobia this is this, you know, actually, in my view, ludicrous idea that Europe is close to being, you know, taken over by, you know, extreme Islamists, which is just, you know, you can absolutely, legitimately say that controlling your borders is an important thing and having controls over, you know, immigration are an important part of national sovereignty.

13:33But that is a long way from where the Americans are basically saying, and this is very much, you know, the playbook that he used about the Mexican border. He's trying to run that playbook in Europe that somehow we are no longer going to be European within the immediate future. And that just isn't the evidence for that. But to be clear, the part of the analysis that in the end I agree with is economically, you pay your money, takes your choice, what language you use, but certainly you're, the European economy is not performing in the way that it needs to if we are going to have a stable long-term future.

14:21In the language of the Americans, we have a failing economy, and I'm not sure we are that far from having a failing economy. When you've had the kind of stagnation that we've seen in Europe since the global financial crisis, when you see the widening gap between living standards, certainly on an average basis in Europe, and living standards in America, when you see the growth disparity, when you see the rate of company formation, new businesses being created in America of a size and importance, way greater than we're seeing in Europe as a whole, including the UK. We talk a lot about how compared to the rest of Europe, actually the UK does create a lot more, particularly in the tech space, space, really impressive young businesses.

15:10But again, we talk along this program about how these businesses are not being given the support that they need to become world leaders. That bit of the analysis that economically, there is a risk of Europe failing is something I agree with. And it is something that Europe claimed to have woken up to over the last couple of years, in particular when they commissioned that really important report by Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, about the competitive failures of Europe. But they've done way too little to address those failures. And that's a real problem. And I don't see the urgency among European leaders to really address what is, you know, it is an economic crisis.

15:56I also think the optics of leadership in Europe is that it's unstable, that there's constant kind of, you know, concerns about whether someone's going to have to leave their job, whether they're, you know, in votes of no confidence. Even in the UK, we obviously had the election last year and we all thought things were going to calm down and they haven't. So if you're a kind of, you know, a lay person looking at all of this, you're going, well, do you know what? I might not agree with everything Trump's saying, but at least he is someone who's there. He's in charge. He's leading. He's not having constant squabbles about losing the leadership.

16:33He sets priorities. He sets priorities for the country with a sense of urgency that, again, you just don't on the whole see from European leaders. Yes, exactly. And I think that means a lot to people, even if you don't necessarily agree with everything they're doing. A lot of people just want certainty and stability in their life as much as they want things to get better. It is about knowing what you're dealing with. And the great opportunity cost just in the UK, just to be clear on that, because obviously, if you're an investor, stability really matters, right? You know, in France, it's almost impossible to have stable government, given that, you know, the parliament there is so divided, and there is no natural majority in parliament.

17:18So it's a nightmare for President Macron to get anything done, right? So it's just a big structural problem. It's an unstable country because of the elections there. You go to Germany, right? Again, intrinsically unstable because you have a leader dependent on a coalition. And recently we saw the rise of a very great risk that that government will collapse because there are concerns about the kind of welfare reform that Mertz wants to do. this should be we should be yeah this should be our superpower you know after that election you know we said on this program this is such an amazing opportunity for the UK because you know Starmer got this decisive majority in parliament you know the concerns were to use Hailsham's phrase in fact if anything it was going to be an elected dictatorship because you know they had so much power given how many MPs they had but But if you're certainly looking at it from a sort of global perspective, the greatest failure of this government is it's been so unstable.

18:28You know, there is a very high risk, a really quite a high probability that probably after the elections in May, the elections in Scotland, Wales and the local elections, Starmer and Reeves will be thrown out. Yeah, that's madness. And so if you're an investor, you're not going to go, you're going to think, well, hang on a minute. Okay, we don't know what's going to happen there. We don't know what they're going to do with the economy there. Let's just, you know, put it where we know what's happening, like America. And that's a real missed opportunity for us, isn't it? To not just, you know, face what we have to face and make hard decisions, but make them and provide a bit of certainty about what's going to happen next.

19:08I mean, just think about, you know, if you look at the turmoil in the rest of Europe, just think about, you know, the benefits for Britain if the world could be persuaded that this was a stable place. Yes. That we were managing the debt down, that we were creating an environment for investment in British businesses and that there was stability at the top of government. I mean, the opportunities are just, you know, they are what they were. but goodness knows given you know as i say how poorly this government has performed you know for starmer to be the least popular prime minister i think pretty much in british history according to the polls and so soon after a general election just shows you about the mountain they have to climb yeah i know it's depressing but you know we're optimists aren't we we are optimists come on it's all going to come good in the new year maybe we're going to talk about the warner brothers deal in a minute but I just want to mention as well given we're talking about America I was hanging out with my mate Hillary Clinton again yesterday such a show I know it's so funny whenever she's in the UK I often get asked to do um the kind of interview she's doing for events she's hosting so this one was for Queen's University in Belfast they were having an event to mark the 180th uh anniversary of the university she's the chancellor so I interviewed her at that in the speaker's house which is speaker's house is posh isn't it it's right in the middle of the Westminster in the House of Parliament and it's some old set up that.

20:36Anyway I'm sure Lindsay Hoyle loves hanging out there but yesterday it was me chatting to Hillary but what was really interesting is one of the things obviously she cares a lot about is resolving conflict like how do you resolve conflict one of the big things that obviously she was part of when she was First Lady with Bill Clinton was the peace process in Northern Ireland. Can I just ask you one very quick question before you tell us about her approach. Again, going back to the national security document that we've just been talking about, broadly, and you pay your money, takes your choice whether you think he actually follows through on this.

21:15But Trump's doctrine is we are not going to intervene, as I said, unless it's absolutely on our doorstep. Yes, he'll be a sort of broker of a, you know, as he's trying to do at the moment between Russia and Ukraine. But for example, he, you know, he is very reluctant to commit American assets, American military hardware to keeping the peace, even if there is a peace. Does she think that his sort of drawing back from America as the sort of global policeman or police person, Does she approve of that? Well, no, because her view is very much about actually that they're an important part of helping negotiate and intervention is key to...

22:02So using American military might having the... Well, I don't know specifically on American military, but she was saying about how, you know, it takes years and years to solve conflicts. And the key thing is negotiation. And you can't just do a Trump thing of popping up for half an hour and doing a meeting and then leaving again. She's like, that is not how you can resolve it. You've got to put in the work. You've got to embed yourself in understanding the communities and helping that way. So she was using Northern Ireland as an example of this. And she was talking about how, you know, George Mitchell, who was the US special envoy, spent absolutely years just negotiating between the two parties who hated each other.

22:46So between Sinn Féin and the ZUP, he was constantly going between them as each of them were slagging each other off, going, they're murderous bastards, no, they're murderous bastards. And she was saying that took years. But another thing that was really key to it, and I'm totally fascinated, she was saying how important women are in the negotiation, because women are the ones whose husbands, whose brothers, whose sons get killed. and they're the ones who eventually go, we cannot keep losing all of our men. We need to sort this out. And so she was talking about how that in Northern Ireland, that was absolutely crucial.

23:21So there was, you know, the brilliant Monica McWilliams who co-founded the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition in 1996, who became part of the peace negotiations, which obviously led to the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. But having the women there to be able to say, to be at the table and not be doing the kind of, oh big power stuff but just be like we're losing our family here we're losing all the blokes we love and then understanding the needs of those communities still but doing it on a level which isn't all about aggression it's much more about we'll think about what we're losing here that's really important and actually it then sent me down a dark hole of looking at you know the history of of conflicts and looking at how women have made a big difference in it so I was looking at something to do with the UN about how peace agreements, which have women involved in signing the agreements, actually last a lot longer than when women are not involved in it.

24:14And so there was an example that was given in Mali where it's to do with the border zones there. And they said that women's participation and conflict prevention rose from five to 25 % in like 2020 to 2022. And that's because the women went in and talked about things like the natural resources that would come from them having a peace deal and how that would help everyone. And so it's really fascinating that element of as well, because I said to her, well, what do you do when you've got psychopaths running countries? And she said, well, yeah, because then the peace agreements don't mean anything.

24:50So she was talking about Putin and saying, I would not trust anything Putin ever said on a peace agreement um so then how do you get around that then like how do you negotiate if if there's someone running the country who you know is a psychopath which is essentially what putin is isn't he and there is i mean you have prompted a sort of thought and it's odd that i hadn't sort of seen it in this way until just listening to you but if you look at the players involved in trying to get some kind of stability, some kind of truce between Russia and Ukraine. If you look at the equivalent process for Gaza, Hamas on the one side and Israel on the other, everybody involved in terms of negotiations is a man, every single one.

25:41I guess you could argue that there's a sort of fairly minor role for Ursula von der Leyen, who's president of the EU, and maybe for Kaya Callas, who's the high representative of the EU. But I'd say that broadly they're not the players in Ukraine, Russia. Basically, on the Trump side, they're all these sort of deal-making men like Steve Witkoff. It feels really old-fashioned. It feels like a real reversion that the world just is being carved up by overconfident, ageing white men. Yeah. And just to add to that, it's something like, according to the UN, only 7 % of negotiators on global peace agreements are women.

26:257 % across all peace negotiations all over the world are women. And so that is fascinating. And, you know, well, the other thing she was saying, and, you know, you're going to say, well, she would say this, but she was talking about how any woman who stands up to Trump is, you know, called a piggy or is in some way insulted. Okay, so we've seen those appalling scenes of Trump humiliating women journalists, which is your piggy reference. I mean, one of the things that is astonishing to me is why don't the journalists just walk out at that point? Yes, and why doesn't anyone stand up to him? That was what Hillary was saying.

27:02She was saying, where were the business leaders or the other journalists or anyone else who would have just gone, hang on, you can't do that. You can't talk to somebody like that. Yeah, I know. And no one did. But what they do, they don't endorse it and go, yeah, he's right. But what they do do is roll their eyes and go, oh, God, another Trump. They don't think they don't. But they don't take him on. I know, I know. And that's her point. And she said, you know, he does have important women in his team, but they're all women who totally agree with him and would never, ever stand up to him. And if they did stand up to him, they'd be out.

27:32So it's just a mess. Well, but I do think that particularly the American press corps has to grow a backbone, basically. But it's interesting as well. I don't want to bang on about women all the time. But the other thing is, I do feel like we've gone backwards in terms of women in leadership as well. You know, like if you look now at how many countries have women leaders, it's gone backwards, hasn't it? There's fewer women running countries and heads of states and governments. So it's, you know, I do have a beef about this, about what's happening there. It's another of your beefs. I know. I overuse the word beef, don't I?

28:08So look, should we take a quick break? Yes, let's take a break. And then after that, we'll come back and talk about the Warner Brothers. Carry on. We shall. Okay. See you in a minute.

28:21Welcome back to The Rest is Money with me, Steph McGovern. And with me, Robert Peston. So we're now going to talk about the battle for control of Warner Brothers Discovery. And this is quite a battle, isn't it? Yeah, it is. It's really interesting this. So just to remind you, Warner Brothers, they've got a huge library of content. They own some of the big franchises like Harry Potter, Batman, things like that. So there's a lot of companies who would love to have them, as you say, in their trophy cabinet. I think you described it, didn't you? Sorry, I'm kicking you under the table here. So you've got the Paramount team who've been desperately trying to get their hands on Warner Brothers.

28:56And this has been going on for some time, hasn't it? Several months, yeah. Yeah, and as you say, you've got David Ellison, who's the chief exec of Paramount. He's the son, as you mentioned, of Larry Ellison, who's the founder of Oracle. And depending on what day it is, he's one of the world's richest men. Well, he's definitely one of the world's. He's either number one or number two. Yes, exactly. And he's good mates with Trump as well. And Tony Blair, of course. He funds the Tony Blair Institute. Yes. And so David Ellison has been trying to take over Warner Brothers Discovery for some time. He's had various, I guess, financing arrangements, hasn't he?