Scotland miss All Blacks history as England plan their own shot at glory

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1:27Welcome back to The Ruck, the journalist's rugby podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. Busy weekend of November action to review. We are back in studio on a Monday. Alfie Reynolds here alongside me, fresh from a trip to Paris on Saturday, Elgin Olderman. Elgin, how are you doing? I'm very well, thank you, Alfie. How are you doing? I'm very well, thank you. Jealous still that you were at the France Springboks game, but we'll get on to all of that and I'll try and park my feelings. And in person, what a luxury this is, Stuart Barnes. Barnsley, good to see you.

1:54Stuart Barnes: Well, I've taken the risk with the GWR. There's a 20-minute delay, but I'm told that's not too bad. So I'm very happy to be in the big smoke. Thanks, Alfie. I feel like 20-minute delay on the trains is basically on time, isn't it? No, no, no. That's a plus. That's really good. Yeah, exactly. You're doing well. Now, there was something as well, Barnsley, that last week on the show, and I know you've seen this because we put it on social media, that I said if and when Ben Earl gets picked at 12 for England from the start, it would be your Nigel Farage moment when he stood up in European Parliament and said, you all laughed at me, you're not laughing now.

2:24And I know you didn't like that comparison, so I'm glad you're still here. I thought we might have lost you before you'd even hopped on a train.

2:30Stuart Barnes: I don't like any comparison with Nigel Farage in any way, shape or form. In terms of what you were saying, fair enough, but please don't link the two names. Yeah, no, I thought that may be your response. So I appreciate the fact that you are still here because I thought there could be a chance I get a message from Barger saying, no, not coming anymore. Never petty, never personal. Yeah, quite right. Right. So look, coming up on the pod, we're going to be chatting to Mark Palmer, our man north of the border, to look back on that game between Scotland and the All Blacks. What a missed opportunity that was for Gregor Townsend's men.

3:01We'll preview all the upcoming fixtures, touch once again upon England's game at Twickenham. So loads to get through. And also a reminder that if you haven't listened to it already in your feed will be mine and Will Kelleher's dispatch on Saturday night following England's victory over Fiji. So once again, in an international period, loads of content coming your way on the ruck. Let's start in Paris, though. The biggest game of the weekend, the biggest game of November. Elgin, it got the big billing. Did it live up to your hopes and expectations, France against the Springboks?

3:30Elgan Alderman: Certainly the start of the fixture, what La Marseillaise sounded like, the jeering for every South African name announced beforehand in the match. France had clearly turned up thinking very much about what had happened two years earlier in that World Cup quarterfinal. And certainly at halftime, when they were leading 14-13, when South Africa were down to 14 men, it had everything looking like we were going to be talking about. Had a red card cost the Springboks victory? Would it have marred a victory? We'd seen some brilliant French backplay. And then it was just a second half Springbok masterclass that Stuart and I were talking about it before we came on air, how it wasn't quite a full-on epic fixture because of how brilliantly the Springboks took hold of the game in that last 20 minutes.

4:13Elgan Alderman: to win by 15 points when the previous four games between the sides had been decided by four points or fewer. The way that France was so profligate in that first 20 minutes after halftime and then the way that the Springboks just took hold of it to win so definitively by 15 points. It was a terrific performance, but it ended up being so definitive that it probably won't be regarded as a full-on classic for that reason. It says a lot, doesn't it? It's not a classic because you were too good, essentially.

4:40Stuart Barnes: Well, that's absolutely right. Like it's not an epic game, but an epic performance. And quite often when you get epic performances, the match themselves disappears a little bit. It was like South Africa's 43-10 win in the rugby championship against New Zealand, their biggest ever win against them, but they beat them so convincingly, it will not be remembered in the annals outside of South Africa. It totally underlines South Africa's dominance, doesn't it? I mean, we thought of them, I think most people thought of them as the number one team in the world before this fixture. and I know a lot of South African fans kind of felt when it was billed as this is a match between the Six Nations winners, the rugby championship winners to decide the best team in the world.

5:18A lot of South African fans, I think, fairly probably say, we've won two World Cups, we've been the number one team in the world, we've done all this, one game doesn't define it, but one game does underline it, doesn't it?

5:27Stuart Barnes: Yeah, I mean, it wasn't a playoff. South Africa are the best team in the world, there's no doubt about that. France had the advantage of being at home and South Africa went out and they made a statement. I mean, it wasn't about revenge for France, for South Africa. What is chilling is this is a team that is in a developmental status. When you stop and you think about that, then it's quite frightening. This is a team going one way only. I don't know whether we'll mention his name again, but Sascha Feinberg and Gomazulu wasn't perfect. He does extraordinary things, though. in two years time, you know, all being well, he could be eclipsing Antoine Dupont in terms of influence.

6:12Stuart Barnes: It's amazing the individual and collective talent at their disposal.

6:16Elgan Alderman: The very different ways in which they can win a test because they get that permanent red card just before half-time. Sia Khaleesi, captain on his 100th cap, is asked to come off at half-time for tactical reasons. So he's come off a Ruan Nokia so that there's another number five on the field. And then Andre Esterhuisen, who everyone knows as an inside centre, comes on and acts as a number six in line-outs and attacking scrums and a number 12 in defence. And so they've got a man covering both positions. And hybrid players, forwards playing in the backs is a big topic at the moment. And not for the first time, the Springboks are ahead of the game in having someone who is able to do that off the bench very well.

6:55Stuart Barnes: And we talked about substitutions. Ibn Etzabeth, I'd say pretty much universally regarded as the leading lock in the world for South Africa's reasons. In the second half, they brought him off early. They've got their captain, they've got Etzabeth off. They're not just talking about strength and depth in their squad. They're really showing it. They're coming out and they're saying, have a look at this. Just on Sasha Feinberg and Gwamzulu as well, because we've got you in studio, Stuart. For me, if you put aside the results for a second, and I know results are always the most important thing, I think the biggest shining light, the most encouraging and probably the thing if I was a Springbok fan, I'd be happiest with this year is the emergence of Sasha Feinberg and Gomazulu.

7:34Because for a while, there'd often been a chat about the Springbok fly half. When it came down to the biggest moments, it was Pollard, who is so clutch. Marnie Libok had his opportunities. But in Sasha Feinberg and Gomazulu, it looks like they found an absolute gem.

7:47Stuart Barnes: Well, I disagree with you slightly, Alfie. I'd say results are not always the guiding criteria. It's where and when. World Cup final, results are the only criteria. World Cup semi-final, quarter-final, absolutely. Rugby championship, more important. Six Nations, more important. But developmental towards World Cups, developmental towards championships, then you experiment and you look for individuals to come through. And that's, you know, South Africa, they got hammered by Australia at home. They lost to Argentina. So they haven't been flawless in terms of results. But in terms of performance, as you say, Ngoma Zulu has been the guy who has defined the improvement.

8:34Stuart Barnes: And would South Africa be in a better position if they hadn't played him and they hadn't lost any games? Would they be in a better position to bring this man into the team and they keep winning? By the way, I'm not suggesting they will lose him because of him, because I don't think he played in those matches. But they're not afraid to just develop an experiment. And that's the key. Yeah, the red card didn't end up defining the game at all. Any complaints? Fair enough. I saw a lot of people suggesting that because Tom O 'Ramos was on his knees, they could have found the mitigation, that maybe there was a wrap with the right arm, even though from one angle where he's got the left arm tucked, that it was a shoulder charge.

9:15Harge, what do you make of it?

9:16Elgan Alderman: I think if one thing this weekend has shown is that there's been a bit of confusion over straight reds and bunkers. We're so now accustomed to seeing bunkers just being the de facto decision that it's actually quite strange now when you do see that permanent red card awarded. By the letter of the law, if you tuck your shoulder like that, it almost doesn't matter how low you've tried to get. It starts off always illegal and therefore it's a red card. But ever since they've lobbied for this 20-minute red card, this bunker decision, it's perhaps made these decisions even more confusing to quite understand exactly what's going on for what it's worth afterwards it might have been slightly different if South Africa had lost the game but Razia Rasmus said it was definitely a red card afterwards he said I wasn't quite sure if it should have been a 20 minute or a full-time one so I think that's what people took from that there might have been examples that look significantly worse and there were perhaps one in you know the England-Fiji game with Faye Wabosa being taken out in the air or even the Wales game on Sunday against Argentina with the Ben Thomas decision.

10:16Elgan Alderman: People aren't quite sure exactly where it stands. People that follow the rubric of the rugby law book might understand what's going on, but I think perhaps fans are looking at it thinking, I don't quite understand why sometimes it's bunker and sometimes it isn't.

10:28Stuart Barnes: And there's a terrible problem with consistency. We talk about the tuck all the time, but I watch so many matches where there's a shoulder goes in and then you will hear a commentator say, yeah but the shoulder's not to the head so it shouldn't be a red card in fact shouldn't even be a yellow card and then you're thinking the shoulder charge is not a tackle we have a we have a vocabulary in television that has confused the way that fans look at this game and it's not just confused it with spectators it's confused it with the officials and that's leading to an inconsistency that is causing chaos in rugby I think I'm glad it didn't end up being the talking point from the game and as I said I probably looked at it and wondered whether they would find mitigation because Tom Oramas was on his knees I did think there was a wrap but ultimately I'm glad it's not the story if we flip it to France Elgin you love your French rugby where does what's going to be or what has been the reaction to this defeat I think people are just

11:28Elgan Alderman: beginning to think you know is Fabian Geltier getting the best out of the talent he has available we saw them empty the bench with five replacements on I think the 47 48th minute mark and they did not have the same impact that South Africa had. Of course, France are missing a lot of very good players, not just Antoine Dupont, who is the best player on the planet, but also Cyril Baye, Wini, Artonio, Francois Croix. So they are missing some very good players, but not for the first time. It's one of these instances where you know that France have the ability to beat absolutely anyone. But on these big occasions, and two years ago, that defeat by South Africa, I don't think they'll ever get over it and they still haven't yet had any form of catharsis for that because again they've lost to South Africa in that stadium they haven't beaten the Springboks in Paris for 20 years now I'm sure they won't think about that they're thinking purely about the one two years ago but you are looking at it now thinking of course France have got so much at their disposal but are they getting as much out of what they have as they should be doing?

12:25Stuart Barnes: Elgid what you're saying there that the regressive mindset going back to that horrendous day from a French perspective in the quarterfinal. The way you talk about that and paint the picture in French rugby, it suggests that until Fabien Gaultier who was the mastermind of that team and was going to bring home the World Cup in 2023 until he leaves are France going to be caught out by looking backwards as opposed to looking forwards and it's almost a case of now or never isn't it? We're two years out, we're two years in from a World Cup.

13:00Elgan Alderman: Certainly possible. If you look at it now, are France better now than they were two or three years ago? And I don't think they are.

13:07Stuart Barnes: No, they were marvellous. I thought they would win in 2023. I know there was the DuPont incident, but I don't think they're the team they were then. I agree with you. Yes, interesting with France because it's such a massive game. All the build-up in the week about the World Cup quarterfinal two years before. They are a really good side, but then to be so categorically second best is probably going to lead to some soul-searching.

13:29Elgan Alderman: Very much. And the game was there for them to win. Obviously, they had the player advantage. The first 20 minutes of the second half was their game. They made a couple of brilliant breaks down the side, Louis BL, BRA to the four, but they just couldn't turn any of them into any points. and all they got in that entire 42-minute period with a man advantage was one penalty. You think of the skill that that French team has, the tries that Damien Peno scored, which were both absolute beauties from Thomas Ramos helping out first with the boot and then with a brilliant pass after a backline move. But then to think that they couldn't even get over the line once in the next 42 minutes when they had 20 minutes or so of really good opportunities, that'll be the most galling thing from the fixture itself.

14:12Well, France weren't the only side to have a pretty gutting defeat over the weekend. Scotland lost to New Zealand 17 points to 25. Up next, we're going to have a chat with our man north of the border, Mark Palmer, to get the Scottish reaction to that result. Well, Mark, great to have you back on the ruck. Scotland have had some great games, some real epic encounters, some close defeats in recent years. Was Saturday, in terms of near misses, does it top the lot in terms of the agony, the heartache, the frustration? Absolutely, I think it goes straight in at number one and I don't know if that's right up there or right down there but I think either expression will count on this occasion It was certainly a rollercoaster of emotion I was thinking afterwards, the only thing that comes close is probably that ridiculous draw at Twickenham in 2019 for the ebbs and flows and you were left again not really knowing how to feel at the finish apart from trying to get a match report away but yeah, it was a memorable day if nothing else Am I being harsh, Mark, when I say that it was so typically Scottish?

15:15There's so much pride, so much quality at moments as well. And then ultimately, when it boiled down to it, they still end up losing the game. Yes, you're absolutely right. And I think, you know, to be fair to the players, that's exactly the message that's kind of come out afterwards. There's not really any interest anymore in being a gallant loser. It's, you know, it was there for us. They constructed a position to go and win the game and then couldn't get it over the line. And, you know, and unfortunately, the sort of narrative within that is quite similar as well. It was a painfully slow start, a painfully slow finish, not taking advantage of opportunities that they created.

15:51You know, as I've said and written since Saturday, I simply can't conceive of another set of circumstances that would have put them in a better position to beat the All Blacks. I know they're likely to be hosting them again at Murrayfield next year in the new Nations Championship, but it kind of feels that this was the big chance. and it slipped through their fingers. Why do they keep coming out on the wrong side of results against a team like that? Particularly when you say that the opportunities were there, New Zealand had players going to the bin, Scotland had them on the ropes. I'm convinced that some of those Scotland passes stick against other opposition.

16:26Is there a mental hurdle here because it's the All Blacks? How do you see it? Yeah, and I think we've talked about that at length, even on this pod. There is a mental faulty to Scotland, although they'll argue that there isn't until they're blue in the face. but the evidence is there and is reflected in these peaks and troughs that they have in performance. In-game, against virtually every opponent, there's always a real sticky spell where they threaten to throw it away or they come roaring back, as was the case at the weekend. So they find it difficult to maintain a level for 40 minutes, never mind 80 minutes.

16:58And then there's the more sort of prosaic side of it that New Zealand simply have a better team in a lot of positions and certainly a better bench. I think there was a real momentum shift when the respective benches began to make their influence fail. Scotland really, a couple of key injuries to Xander Fregerson, Hugh Jones had already left them short in those key positions. And there just wasn't much coming from that bench at all. Clearly the opposite applies for New Zealand, particularly in the case of their match winner, Damian McKenzie.

17:27Elgan Alderman: It did feel like just one of those moments where the universe was showing the difference between the two teams, where Darcy Graham almost had that magnificent finish in the corner. And then when Damien McKenzie is given an equally difficult chance, he somehow manages to defy gravity and ground the ball behind his back when you think, how on earth has he stayed in field? My back was sore just watching that. I never mind even vaguely considering attempting it. It was a remarkable finish. But you're right. And, you know, again, that was one of the slightly frustrating things or very frustrating things about the day.

17:58I kind of felt that, you know, where some of the sort of less heralded players in that Scotland team really stood up and almost overperformed. I think of Darcy there at tight head, I thought Gregor Brown was outstanding at blindside. Darcy had one of his poorer days, Blair Kinghorn likewise, and Finn, who by the end or long before the end was on one leg after all his treatment, didn't quite have the same degree of control that we've seen him develop over the last couple of years, I thought. So yeah, it was an odd day all round, some very strange things happening, but ultimately the exact same outcome as always.

18:30Stuart Barnes: I mean, in the end, Mark, the precision of their finishing was something else. I think back to Cam Roygaard's try was beautifully executed. The same with Will Jordan. All their tries were superb efforts. Scotland had lots of pressure. They got on the line. And sometimes you said, how do we not score there? But there's about eight, nine bodies around there. When New Zealand strike, suddenly there's one defender and there's three attackers. And I think because South Africa have this power and size, which they've had forever against New Zealand, for New Zealand to be the world's best rugby team as long as they have, they have to do something different.

19:10Stuart Barnes: And that point of difference is the quality and accuracy of their execution. And I think, Mark, when we watch Chicago, everyone said, God, they made a lot of errors. and in parts of the game at Edinburgh, we said, God, they made a lot of errors. But we noticed that because so often they are so good and when it mattered, they produced it. Do you think? I think you're spot on. We've obviously been caught up very much in the what-if scenario for Scotland, but again, you take a step back and I have to tip your hat once more. How many times have they done that in New Zealand over the years where they dig themselves out of a hole, they find a way to the quality of their execution and skill base but also their uh that core mentality you know if if there's a polar opposite to that the Scottish mentality it's got to be New Zealand's and you know it was uh right right to the floor again and in those closing stages Mark I'd imagine it's a funny one for you covering it because I know you would have covered Scotland games where the idea that they could beat the All Blacks would seem ridiculous but then on the flip side of that you've seen them get over the England Calcutta Cup hoodoo and dominate that you've seen them pick up big scalps elsewhere to the point now where actually it is realistic that they could have and on Saturday you'll feel should have beaten the All Blacks so is it a point when you're looking back at this game that taking learnings from it isn't good enough anymore?

20:31Agreed and you know it's always you know it's always wise to listen to John Barkley I feel and he yeah he'd got me believing during the week by making that exact point saying you when he played against them in a very very different era and in the early you know the 2010s effectively or that first decade of the century you know they routinely would beat scotland by 30 40 points whichever team they put out and you know there was no logical case to be made at all for scotland winning those games uh that you know before the game you looked at those teams you looked at the form lines and thought you know you can construct a case however flimsy however tenuous you could say that that you know that what then transpired might transpire i.e that they would be right in the fight that they would they would construct a position from where they could go on and win the game.

21:15But, you know, that has been the movie with this team for any number of years, whether it's New Zealand, South Africa, France, Ireland. In the biggest games, in the biggest moments, they do come up short. And, you know, that's why they haven't taken that next leap from being, you know, a very good side to being one that's going to win or even, you know, genuinely challenge for a Six Nations title. But I suppose the positive then, which is hard to see, particularly given the nature of this defeat, is there's part of me, Mark, that thinks Scotland are going to beat the All Blacks. I get what you're saying, that a better opportunity doesn't come around than how that game panned out on the weekend.

21:52But I think New Zealand, as we've touched upon, aren't the team of old, aren't the unbeatable team of old. And Scotland are progressively getting closer. That's kind of the glass half full approach. The comeback to that, I suppose, would potentially be this golden generation of Scottish players, actually their window will close. How do you see it, I suppose? do you think that Scotland are on a journey eventually they are going to get that win and it's going to be a famous win or do you fear that it's not going to happen because their window is closing which is a really long question which I could have probably put a lot shorter but do you know what I mean I don't think I can I can answer it in any any more succincter fashion but other than that I kind of probably veer between those two viewpoints on any given day in much the same way as you know not even specifically around the New Zealand fixture just the general notion of this team kind of you know breaking through that glass ceiling that has appeared to sort of hover over it for the last number of years you know that you know fantastic individual components certainly um certainly behind the scrum and i think you know those those prior deficiencies maybe in the front five are starting to become less apparent there's a new generation particularly of young glasgow forwards that have really come through um and are challenging that historic sort of weakness in that area if you want to call it but you know until they do it it remains the great unknown doesn't it so um you know only they can really change that narrative fundamentally and you know as you say it is a fact that the window to do so is closing because there's a number of them in that real sweet spot in the sort of 26 to 31 32 kind of category but equally it doesn't take long for that sweet spot to become you know yesterday's man does it so yeah it's we're no

23:30Stuart Barnes: closer to answering that question i don't think i mean i don't wish to be the prophet of doom mark though I'm happy to take the mantle. Yeah, you're right. But the other thing about New Zealand is, whilst, unlike South Africa, they really hate losing any games, they are also plotting World Cups. That's the New Zealand way. That is the main thing. And in the last five, ten years, you have seen New Zealand fall away post-World Cups and rise again. And we're at 2025 now, so New Zealand are coming up to the midway part. they will be getting better. They've got a... Scott Robertson is a new coach. He hasn't had an easy start because they've lost a few games.

24:13Stuart Barnes: But New Zealand dip and they rise. They dip and they rise. And it's fair to say, if anything, they're coming out of their dip now. But I would suggest that for the next two years, they're going to get harder and harder to beat as they become a better side. Yeah, I would agree with that. And again, that probably is another factor that augments the feeling that if there was ever a moment this was it. Mark, just a few to finish on. Finn Russell, as you say, playing at one point on one leg. What's the latest there? Do you expect him to miss out this weekend against Argentina? All the noises post-match have been that he was kind of shrugging it off in an immutable Finn fashion, kind of saying that he would be absolutely fine for Argentina on Sunday.

24:56But it was kind of three, at least three very lengthy periods of attention he got, lots of strapping, and it was both that he had a knee issue and an ankle issue, so it wasn't just one thing. And, you know, clearly everything that we were being told was prior to him being properly assessed, you know, come Monday morning or whatever by the medical team. So, again, if there's any doubt, you'd imagine they would err on the side of caution. And, you know, they have Adam Hastings and Tom Jordan waiting there as well for an opportunity. So, at the moment, the signs are that he will be in contention, but probably quite early in the week to be making the call.

25:32Stuart Barnes: there's another issue here I know Finn Russell Proud Scott and wants to play but I tell you now Bruce Craig and Bath will be in contact saying how are you Bath pay Finn Russell a lot of money and I know they don't have first call for him but nevertheless in the world in which we inhabit I wouldn't be surprised if Bruce Craig is saying are you sure you're alright for Argentina and it's understandable it is it's absolutely understandable it's his prize asset that cost him a hell of a lot of money as you just said So, yeah, maybe the most beneficial solution all round will be that he's on the bench or something.

26:10But equally, this now becomes a must-win game for Scotland, which is a very, very treacherous fixture in itself. And always was, whatever had happened against New Zealand. And you've been writing about it, Mark, but they've often done quite well, haven't they? Responding to these gutting defeats one weekend, then actually putting a load of points on the opposition the next. I was casting around yesterday morning for a couple of positive things to throw into the mix. And that's where I alighted. The 2017 game where they lost by five points to New Zealand, they went and put 50 on the Wallabies the following week.

26:43And then three years ago, which was an eight-point defeat to New Zealand, they then put 50 on, albeit a very different Pumas team, the following week. So if you want to look with the glass half-full approach, there are some positive omens there. I don't suspect they'll be putting 50 on this Argentina team but it is a genuinely intriguing contest I think that one is going to be looking forward to that Mark take the positives and run I would suggest after the weekend Mark awesome to have you back on the ruck and yeah let's hope Scotland's fortunes change this weekend I'd imagine there's a much better chance that they will so we'll speak to you soon.

27:19Perfect thank you gents

27:25Elgan Alderman: At PwC, we optimize the systems that put your data to work so you can scale your AI from proof of concept to competitive edge and accelerate your tech evolution so you can redefine what's possible. From blueprint to breakthrough, we take you further with tech so you can outthink, outpace, and outperform. PwC, so you can. PwC refers to the PwC network and or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity.

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28:36Always good to get the thoughts of Mark Palmer, even though it was a disappointing afternoon for Scotland. But before we start casting our minds forward, Elgin, Wales, the Steve Tandy era up and running, defeat to Argentina, which I don't think has shocked anyone. the manner of the defeat was that more surprising or disappointing or am I being unfair I think the

28:58Elgan Alderman: most disappointing thing is just that Jack Morgan who at times looks like a one-man team and carries the hopes of a nation on his shoulders now has sadly a dislocated shoulder that looks like it will be ruling him out of the rest of the autumn so suddenly now even just that second game against Japan which was being regarded as perhaps the only victory Wales might get this autumn even that's looking like a much stiffer task I don't think anyone was going to that game thinking that under Steve Tandy, Wales would be some sort of finished article straight away. There were some good moments. There were moments in attack that looked significantly better than anything we've seen for the past two years.

29:32Elgan Alderman: In particular, Thomas Williams' try where Tom Rogers goes to drown the outside, excellent support lines from Jack Morgan and Thomas Williams. So there were some clear improvements in that regard, but it was a familiar tale of looking a bit tired and overpowered by an opposition team. and conceding 52 points at home now is becoming a common thing that we're used to seeing. 50 ,000 people in the stadium, again, there have been instances in the past where we've seen that many people in the stadium, but that is a low attendance and that will again be a concern. I've spoken to a few people who are in the crowd and they said it felt a bit flat, not much singing, not much spoken before about how it's turned into a national shrug at times sitting in the Principality Stadium watching Wales play.

30:18Elgan Alderman: So while there were positives, again, that scoreline, record margin defeat against Argentina, talisman injured. So again, it's just a bad Sunday for Welsh rugby. Not a great way to start November. And Japan, I mean, they have to win this weekend, don't they? I know on Thursday's pod that we were discussing of kind of what's success for Wales and whether it's one win. And I suggested that even one win against this Japan side doesn't do much to give you a platform or a springboard or a feeling of positivity. That's why I felt they needed to win against Argentina, even though they were underdogs, but they just have to beat Japan.

30:51Elgan Alderman: Absolutely must win. And if you look at the rankings, Wales and Japan are 12th and 13th in the world. There's hardly a point between them. So it's almost a completely even matchup if you take the rankings as your metric for that. But yes, absolutely must win by any means possible. now to we said before the argentina game two wins would be you know a magical autumn one win would still be viewed as something of a qualified success because they haven't won in cardiff since 2023 and you're looking at those last two games and thinking they could be absolute you know one-sided one-sided fixtures so they just have to win against japan make no bones about it one has to be careful

31:32Stuart Barnes: when you use use of words with sport because sport is not catastrophic it's not disastrous it's it's a game but having grown up in wales as a child and known the passion of this country for rugby it's as near as you get to a tragedy at the moment the game went professional and wales got it wrong from day one they turned everything towards the international team they didn't understand under David Moffat, who'd come from the Southern Hemisphere. They didn't understand what a club like Bridgend or Pontypool could give Wales and could give supporters and could give the whole country. It was a rugby country.

32:12Stuart Barnes: Everything was aimed at Wales. And it worked for a little while because Warren Gatland took, I would say, a cautious approach to the game, which made Wales very strong with some good players during the Six Nations. But they weren't beating the big guns. they weren't going all the way and then the moment Wales dropped off as an international team it just feels like there's nothing left and you know I don't think Wales should be looking to go two or three teams I think they should be looking to go four because Elgin says 50 ,000 people isn't a big crowd for Argentina but what they've got to do they've got to get the people supporting Welsh rugby again and right now the mindset is how are we making the national team better well the national team are not going to get better until that culture until that spirit is restored in wales and you know i don't live very far away i can almost see the top of the seven bridge from where i live and it it just it feels pretty

33:12Elgan Alderman: depressing at the moment the problem is that a lot of the most sober analysis of the situation of well strict at the moment is talking about how people will have to endure five to ten years of while they improve the grassroots. So we're looking at, even in the most sober analysis, a lot of pain to come, but also a situation where a successful national team is what would inspire those grassroots people to want to play the game. So that's what Wales is caught between at the moment, this rock and hard play.

33:38Stuart Barnes: It's like politics. It's like democratic politics. You think you've got to have a 10-year plan if a country's in difficulties, but no one can because there's an election coming and five years is the maximum amount of time we can think. Wales are exactly that situation. They're not prepared to say, we're going to have a team that's going to keep getting hammered by 40, 50 points at home and you've got to bear with us. And I think the people of Wales, if they want one day for their team to be strong, are going to have to be patient and wait. And if they don't, then I could see Wales dropping off the map.

34:14And it's tough because the atmosphere at the Principality often at the moment hasn't been good and I get it. they've been losing but I've often done games over the last few years where it's just felt a bit flat and if that continues it kind of leads into the or feeds the whole feeling of apathy which is the worst thing that you can have but so it's Wales Japan this weekend the other fixtures if we look ahead Italy South Africa great win for Italy against Australia at the weekend England New Zealand France Fiji Ireland Australia and then as we've mentioned already Scotland Argentina that's the Sunday game so England against New Zealand um I know Will was speaking about it on saturday and has been writing about it in the paper that he feels england should beat new zealand because he feels it should be a culmination of all the near misses we saw last year this borthwick project that was a specific project for the world cup in 23 has been building since then had a lot of near defeats they are now on this winning run they have been winning they say that they have learned a lot from all of those games so this is the match against this new new zealand

35:13Stuart Barnes: team that England should win but under Scott Robertson New Zealand will say we are a new team that have a tread in a very similar path they they lost games early on they're developing their game and Robertson can say look at our history as all blacks this is a game we should be winning I think it's a game England might win I think it's a game England have a very good chance of winning I like the project I like the way certain things are going I love the fact that for example George Ford wasn't in the 23 and he's their talismanic playmaker and the fact that Maro Etoje didn't play for 71 minutes so didn't have your captain didn't have your tactician England are starting to think how can we think on the pitch and that's great news but New Zealand will ask extra questions and we haven't seen whether England have the answer.

36:09Stuart Barnes: England have, you know, they've won nine games on the trot, but South Africa and New Zealand are not two of them. So, yes, England are going the right way. I am encouraged, though not overwhelmed by the way they played against Australia or Fiji. So I think at the moment, look at this game, I think if you said it's 50-50, you might accuse me of being somewhat slanted towards England. I think the reality is if there was a bookmaker that wasn't British and it was just a global thing, I think New Zealand would shade the market, shade it.

36:45Elgan Alderman: In recent years, we've seen far more uncertain England teams draw, lose by one to the Allbacks, even come close to beating them in New Zealand itself. So if you take that simple metric as a preview to this fixture, then absolutely they should be looking to win this game, not just give the Allbacks a good go, but keep the positive momentum going that they've been building up. There are some big selection decisions for England ahead of the game, which I know has already been written about. We'll get onto the back row in a moment because, Barnsley, I know you've been writing about that. But Adam Turner emailed us at theruckatthetimes.co.uk.

37:17So thanks for getting in touch, Adam. And he said, I've just read Stuart Barnes' thought-provoking article on Marcus and Finn Smith failing to impress as a tandem. I thought they individually contributed, but does a partnership not need time to develop? Surely it isn't fair to compare the Magic in the All Blacks compared to the Smiths at this junction.

37:36Stuart Barnes: in time now because i i think marcus smith is a fly half playing fullback the the project is to be able to have two playmakers in the team in south africa when you know they'll bring on libok and uh feinberg gomazulu will go back to fullback it's not about time it's about vision and understanding and the reason i was disappointed is if you've got two fly halves there you've got to have variety in terms of decision making and vision and i felt marcus smith just played like a very orthodox um fullback and anyone who's read my stuff for years will know i'm i'm a big admirer of what marcus smith can do but he's got to play like a fly half at fullback that's what he's got to do that's what damian mckenzie brings to new zealand that's what feinberg ngomazulu brings to South Africa.

38:31Stuart Barnes: That's what Thomas Ramos brings to France. And that didn't work. And, you know, I just thought it was an... I didn't think it was the epicentre of the game. It's not the most important thing, but I thought it was interesting because this is an England team who are in a stage of experimentation. Now, I think George Ford right now is clearly the number one, but I'm looking to see, is there a long-term option to play this duality of tens and I just felt it didn't come off.

39:01Elgan Alderman: I'm glad you mentioned Damian McKenzie there Stuart because I wanted to ask you about what I perceive to be the different cultural approach from New Zealand and England towards having fly halves at 10 fly halves at 15 we've seen Bowden Barrett and Damian McKenzie be able to flip between the positions with so much ease I know Mark Smith occasionally gets flack if he's not breaking the game open from 15 whereas perhaps you could view it as you know you've got the prospect of him breaking the game open as long as he's you know not having an absolute horror show at fullback is there something different in how new zealand is willing to view two fly halves at 10 15 compared to england is it just the way those players are i look at someone like mackenzie and i think if he were english would people be focusing on the fact that he's small and hasn't nailed down the position whereas they view it as he can play both and he's and they view the upside is this is there anything in that

39:50Stuart Barnes: Well, Algin, the key here is the tense we're talking about. I was in a 2017 Lions tour, and Damian McKenzie was being talked up as the bright young thing. I recall him playing, I am old, I recall him playing for Maori fly half against the Lions, gifted player, but he just didn't bring any control to the game at all. But New Zealand have a long time, they see players, they have a vision of rugby that is quite expansive they look at a pitch and it's wider and that's why they score tries easier than uh european teams we get obsessed with bodies all over the place they find space that's bowden barrett his cross-kicking game mackenzie's looking for it and in time they become two players who see it at the moment you england And how do I say it politely?

40:46Stuart Barnes: Finn Smith's idea on space on Saturday was the cross kick. And whilst that is the new weapon of the game, it is not the only weapon because if you do that all the time, it just stretches defences there. And New Zealand, it's taken probably five years because McKenzie's been a very fine dual 10-15 for a long time. But it did take him a long time because he was a sidestepping, high risk, some would say almost Marcus Smith type player. Now he's gone there, he's taken a few licks, he's taken a few kick-ins and he is both those things. But I think it comes from a nation that at root has a greater vision.

41:32Stuart Barnes: And to England's credit, England are looking in that direction. They're not there yet, but that piece I wrote wasn't about are they there or not. it's about are they heading in that direction so would you have george ford as your fly half for the all blacks good god i wouldn't think there's even a question not a question george ford i'd be so depressed if george ford wasn't involved against fiji because england are thinking fiji they're big they're physical they made some amazing tackles uh let's keep george out of the firing line i george ford um there's no comparison at the moment between him and finn smith but i think steve borthwick has used the first two games to give ford a full game finn smith a full game and then decide who's going to be his 10 for the no i i think i think on that um steve borthwick and his selectors before the first match knew what their 23s were going to be pretty much throughout November.

42:31Finn Smith was 10 in the Six Nations though.

42:34Stuart Barnes: Yeah, he was. But George Ford went to Argentina and George Ford earned a lot of loyalty there. And George Ford played with great control against Australia and the fact he started there. I mean, Finn Smith finished that way. But Finn Smith, you know, European Cup final, he didn't have a great game. I watched them both. I watched them closely. George Ford at the moment has a controlling element to his game and a maturity that Finn Smith does not have. And it's not a surprise, Finn Smith is a lot younger, but I don't think Finn Smith is anywhere near George Ford as a contender. The only debate is, which Smith do you put on the bench?

43:14Stuart Barnes: And I'd go Marcus. What about the back rogues? You've also been writing about this, Barnsley. I think it is naturally going to be an area that has so much selection in this England team because they have a lot of different options. Were you suitably impressed with Chandler Cunningham South at eight? Do you want to jump in on Chandler Cunningham South? Because I wrote about it and I was massively impressed. And I like the way that he's physical, he's powerful, with the ball and without the ball. I like the idea of him playing eight. I like the idea of Earl and Underhill giving England balance. It's almost like a take on 2019.

43:48Stuart Barnes: And I like Curry coming off the bench with 20 to go because Ireland didn't score a point against the All Blacks in the last 20. Scotland didn't. And England are not going to win this game unless they're able to compete with the All Blacks. So bring Curry on and unleash fire and fury.

44:06Elgan Alderman: Charlie Cunningham South obviously adds greatly to England's options across the back five of the pack now. But I've always been a huge fan of Ben Earl at number eight. I know a lot of people still view him primarily as a seven rather than an eight. But I would have him at eight, I think, for England. Well, it's intriguing. So England, New Zealand on Saturday will be podding later in the week on Thursday once we have the teams as we usually do. And then, of course, after the match at Twickenham on the weekend as well. Finish us off then, lads. Some of the other matches, Ireland-Australia. I wanted to mention the Wallabies.

44:39To what extent have their first two games this November undone a lot of the good work we saw earlier in the year? I look at their record now and I've been really positive on this Wallabies team and I've been really encouraged. In particular, that victory at Ellis Park was mega. but there's no getting away from the fact that they've won five of their 13 test matches

44:58Elgan Alderman: in 2025 following that defeat to Italy they just look a bit flat really after the Lord Mayor's show maybe of that that great win at the start of the rugby championship after a Lions campaign as well I think based off the balance of everything we've seen for the past few years Italy beating them shouldn't maybe be that much of a surprise obviously they've beaten them before in Italy are an improving force as well that first game against England there were a few mirror images perhaps of that opening lion's chest where they looked a bit flat but on this occasion they weren't able to to build back up out of it so you look in the visitor island i know ireland people are talking about are they on the wrong side of a mountain as well coming back down the other end but again you're looking at probably most likely another australian defeat unless they unless this island decline is even worse than we than we are possibly thinking it might be

45:47Stuart Barnes: right now i think it's a short-term problem for australia i think they're absolutely knackered Lions Tours absorbed the whole rugby community of the country. They played Fiji as a warm-up, three tests there. The rugby championship, you know, they've been flying to Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa. They're tired. Joe Smith did make the point, I think, before the game, when Steve Borthwick was saying, before the England game, and Borthwick was saying, you know, we haven't had a match for a while, they've got an advantage. and Smith came out and he said, look, we've been flying all over the world and we played a hell of a lot of rugby.

46:27Stuart Barnes: And maybe it's, I'm hopeful that Australia are just tired because it's depressing the defeats. But they look tired against England and they look tired against Italy. And I think they're not in a terrible place. They just need their beds.

46:43Elgan Alderman: I also think that we talked so much about Will Skelton during that Lions tour, how the return of him boosted them, their options at lock, but also their energy. And he was playing for La Rochelle at the weekend. So again, that's another strange thing that Australia are having to deal with. And they've done a really good job all year of dealing with the multiple injuries that they have had. And maybe that is also starting to catch up with them that they've had so many to deal with. What does the rest of the week look like for you, Elgin? Where are you? Where are you going? Who are you chatting to?

47:12Elgan Alderman: Not as much travelling as the last two weeks when I was travelling all over Wales in my car, talking to people about some negative results that have now come out on the field again against Argentina. People can read that as well on the Times, the deep dive into the grassroots of Welsh rugby. Yeah, that was published at the end of last week. So a bit more just in one place this weekend, but I think there'll be a lot of energy focused towards All Blacks in England, which is the big game on Saturday afternoon. So I think my energies will probably be looking towards that one. And Barnes, I know you'll be at Twickenham before that.

47:41Back to the Wiltshire Studios.

47:42Stuart Barnes: Well, back to the Wiltshire Studios. and I just can't resist the fact that, you know, Wales are playing Japan and we haven't mentioned Eddie Jones. Eddie had a terrible time in Australia. They had to get rid of him. We're all being very polite because Japan aren't going very well since he went back there either. So it's a crisis game for Wales, but I think it's a crisis game for Eddie Jones as well, which always just whets the appetite somewhat.

48:08Elgan Alderman: Might be quite a fun game because Japan, some of the, again, speed against Ireland was great to watch. I think everyone still has this picture of 2019 in their mind where they can actually give the top nations a real battle. They haven't been that for quite a few years, but they still do have the capacity to thrill and excite.

48:25Stuart Barnes: Yeah, on a serious note, Steve Tandy's a newcomer to international coaching, and Wales looked at me just the sort of team where Eddie Jones might just produce a whole warren of rabbits for that one. It's going to be a really interesting game. obviously you know England New Zealand is the big one there's no doubt about that but it's a fascinating weekend. England New Zealand then? Do England get their 9th ever victory over the All Blacks? Yes Stop looking at me like that

48:57I've got a feeling

48:58Stuart Barnes: they will but it's too close to call Can I go into Raw?

49:04Elgan Alderman: If you want There have been a few, 25 all there was a 26 all

49:08Stuart Barnes: I think it's going to be so close that we'll go for a draw OK, good stuff, interesting so next pod for you will be on Thursday looking ahead to the weekend and then of course we'll have that one after England against New Zealand a match which will define England's November looking forward to it appreciate all of you listening do leave us a review make sure you follow and subscribe from wherever you get your pods from see you next time

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