Warburton on Welsh rugby's future & Freeman the centre

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0:47Alfie: welcome back to the ruck the journalist's rugby podcast from the times and the sunday times here we go again the clocks have changed it's getting colder it's getting darker and the november internationals get underway this weekend alfie here with will at the start of another autumn campaign will we're back and one of our numbers said that so we're at pennyhill park which is where england base themselves and have done for 20 years or so and this is appearance at pennyhill two of 13 possible trips here have you worked them all out have you yeah so adam hathaway who's been on the pod in years gone by has worked out that yes if you come to all of them you do 13 so this because we were here last week for the sort of squad before the squad right yes so last week was steve borthwick with the training squad which is pretty much the squad although we are going to go through it as a few changes there injuries and whatnot and then today well you've been having a chat with luke cowan dickie and alex mitchell i've been chatting to alex mitchell so we have already been and we saw the wallabies earlier on today we have been speaking to the england camp as well and also let's start there coming up later it's a busy week actually it felt last week uh will has had a chat with sam warburton about the developments in the welsh game many of you would have seen about that and read about that online or in a copy of the paper and we'll chat about the prem as well starting off with england will so the england squad for the november series came out yesterday and already those that have read your piece online in the times would have seen some of the team news ahead of the weekend's game against australia we think we've got there with sort of half the team the back line particularly but some surprising yeah so headlines in there and look anyone in our job who's written a news story trying to predict what the team is has to put in the usual caveats of they'll train a few times more this week we don't quite know exactly what day they're going to announce could be tomorrow tuesday could be thursday so like barring a last minute change of heart and all that it seems like tommy freeman is going to line up at 13 which is interesting because on our pod he's talked about his desire to move inside but it didn't necessarily feel like there was a natural place for him because if you thought fraser dingwall would be at 12 then ollie lawrence has been in great form at 13 albeit straight back from his achilles injuries he's looked great hasn't he for bath really good so it's put to me this morning that there was a surprise in the back line and i was trying to guess what it was and i thought oh no a calorie that would be that would be really surprising wouldn't it we had a little chat about what would be the surprise but it seems like the surprise is that there's no ollie lawrence and that freeman's at 13 so therefore all things being equal the back three would be Roebuck, Faye were both so Stewart and then the other interesting thing is that George Ford seemingly is the preferred 10 to start with with Alex Mitchell at nine so that's that feels like the makeup of the back line and we can get into the whys and wherefores but to me that looks like aerial assault and power through midfield it looks like George Ford's the best guy at kicking the high balls someone like Roebuck's excellent particularly in defense under the high and Stuart as we know has been brilliant in that area for a long time um it'd be fascinating to know what the back row looks like which we haven't got there with that yet but we may find out more about that soon the really interesting thing I think you're right the Ford at 10 actually is really fascinating given that you've got you know two British and Irish lines in Marcus Smith and Finn Smith that are on the lines toward George Ford one will be out of 23 right yeah one you'd imagine so which could well be Finn Smith if Marcus Smith is you view as the better bench option so fly half's really interesting I think no Ollie Lawrence at 13 will be what a lot of people react to here because he's probably been the form 13 in the premiership as you say he's been excellent coming back from that Achilles injury we know Freeman was potentially going to shift infield the thing actually if this is spot on and we've been speaking about this earlier today that I come back let's hope it is by the way yeah sure it is save my bacon if it is but I think the thing that stands out to me is for all the complaints you hear about Steve Borthwick and what people level at him he's a punchy selector yeah we've had Ben Earle at 12 previously he put Marcus Smith to fullback dropped Manu as you pointed out to me earlier on today and potentially here move Tommy Freeman inside to 13 that's before we even get onto the fact and we will get onto it that Noah Kalori is in this training squad which is a remarkable story so you might have complaints about the England game plan at times and being driven by data I know Stuart Barnes is often writing about that but in terms of selection Steve Borthwick makes some pretty punchy calls yeah and people might look at that as a negative this time and say is Tommy Freeman a sort of square peg in a round hole where Ollie Lawrence is just obviously a 13 and would be best placed there and then we haven't even mentioned yet Henry Slade like there was a period last season where Slade Lawrence was the default midfield wasn't it and almost to the point where it was like by hook or by crook it will be Slade Lawrence in whichever order and they were rivaling like Mike Catt and Will Greenwood for most starts in the centres after a period of huge flux in midfield so some people might look at it and go there was already made partnership there and you've just gone and changed it again but I think if you work backwards from the solution let's say of if that is the back line you can see how they've pieced it together so the thing that Borswick loves the most and talks about a lot is cohesion and talks about trying to use partnerships that have played together before and already people will go ah but x and y haven't played together but to me it looks like they're sort of melding the last time everyone was available and fit for selection which was wales march six nations and a bit of summer tour so that would mean if you look at that wales game ollie lawrence was obviously injured because he tore his achilles in the italy game at twickenham so then they went mitchell finn smith dingwall freeman didn't they and they had Roebuck, Elliot Daly and Marcus Smith so obviously there are some changes there but the core of it is the same so the Dingwall, Freeman 12-13 and if you think about it you'd go if Freeman's going to play 13 best to put him with Dingwall right but then you'd sort of go well why not then Finn Smith at 10 if you've got the whole Northampton 9-12-13 and then you could have 9-10-12-13 all Saints but George Ford is a guy also that you can fit into that system he is so experienced he is such an intelligent rugby player that he doesn't have the club connections with those guys but i don't think that's a worry no that's a problem and that's where the argentina bit comes in where he was brilliant on that tour coached by lee blackett who's now fully part of the setup and byron mcguigan who he works with a lot at sale as does roebuck who's now officially part of this coaching setup on a temporary basis too manny febosa's back fit so he's comes in clearly doesn't he into the team and there's a space with freeman moving inside for roebuck to stay on the wing because he played there in Argentina and in that Wales game and then the fullback thing I guess Stewart is the most obvious picket fullback in the current squad Marcus Smith could play there and has played there a lot and still might come on there if he's on the bench but they don't have a daily yet he's not fit they don't have a fur bank Joe Carpenter's not in the squad for example things like that so you kind of I'm not saying this is a bad thing because Stewart play well in the summer tour but he sort of now looks like the default pick at 15 so where maybe it looks a bit muddled when you just first see it you can kind of if you sort of I don't know think through how they got there you look at the workings almost you can see how it's put together I'd say yeah I think you can see how they've ended up with it I think loads of people are still going to disagree in particular around the 13 I think people disagree over fly half but when you're picking between Finn Smith George Ford Marcus Smith England have so many good options there that I don't think there'll be quite as much of a strong reaction to that I think it's going to be ollie lawrence in particular that that people are going to have a strong reaction to not being involved i would again so the the only information i have so far is about that back line i don't know what the forward pack looks like at the moment and i don't know what the bench looks like but if you're then imagining a bench you think it's it's probably got to be a 5-3 right because if you have an injury at center you then don't have a center on the bench if you had a 6-2 you'd have a nine and probably marcus smith who can cover 15 and 10 or another utility back line player but you then wouldn't have a centre so you can't really get a scenario where Dingwall or Freeman goes down early and then who do you play at 12 or 13 for the next 70 minutes so I would guesstimate let's say that it's a 5-3 bench with Spencer one of the tens and Ollie Lawrence.

9:04Alfie: Fascinating well we'll see later on this week when England name their team elsewhere though in the squad we get into some of the other big talking points Noah Kalori we spoke a lot about him on last week's pod he is in this squad adam radwan isn't henry arundel is cader murley is so i suppose he's a bit of a two-parter really will we can get on to noah calori but penny for the thoughts of yeah adam radwan i'm disappointed for radwan because i thought oh that's fun that he's got back into the squad on proper merit he's really deserves it he's had a funny old england career where he's won a couple of caps scored a hat-trick against canada he's playing really well for Leicester really well clearly develops his game looks good under the high ball probably outplayed Henry Arundel when they played each other the other week looks strong scored a try the other day it's one of those we probably go if it was a bigger squad you'd just have them all wouldn't you but they have they have to pick 36 with some rehab guys and they sneak a few people into train we know that extra but that seems like a tough call between Calori who you'd love to see in and you go oh but not instead of Rabwan you sort of want everything which is you can't have You can't have.

10:09So, but yeah, on the Clory thing, as you said, last week was a caveat saying, oh, he's in for a development opportunity. He's not that at all. He's no caveat, straight in, full part of the squad. Alphabetically, one of the first backs on the team sheet after Arendelle, I suppose. But I'd be surprised if he's involved this weekend. I mean, we've named a backline there and he's not in it. And I think that'd be very surprising if he then was on the bench, as we've just said, because they don't have a centre. But why not give him a cap against Fiji the next week?

10:38Alfie: yeah which is by no means an easy debut which Borswick said he might well do last week didn't he yeah well he certainly didn't didn't dismiss it so I think that's a brilliant story that he's involved I know as you guys have been writing about he was playing for Amptill against Cornish Pirates in October or earlier this month and then he's made four Prem games handful of appearances in the Prem and then in the England squad for November which is amazing it's a brilliant story elsewhere another guy we spoke about on last week's pod Amika Ileone is having a scan so he's not involved Jack Kenningham is the guy that is coming So we've got more forwards than backs as well.

11:09Alfie: So Jack Kenningham comes in to bolster the options there. And Tom Curry. Yeah. So the last time we saw Tom Curry was in the summer. Sydney. British Nourish Lions tour. He had surgery. Hasn't played for sale. But as we saw on that Lions tour, Tom Curry is a guy that coaches time and time again, even if they haven't necessarily been able to see him too much or he's not playing his best, you get him in the team when you can. And there's a nice little nugget. As you said earlier, we spoke to Luke Cowan-Dickey and obviously plays with him at sale. and he was joking going shock he's back for England before he is for sale um I imagine quite a few sale fans probably do feel that way that's how they manage Tom Curry these days isn't it to extend his career but what I thought was interesting was the thing that Cowan Dickey said who is one of Curry's biggest fans he said he's trained last week was the first time he trained properly since Sydney and he was smashing everyone on every score GPS numbers and all that stuff which that's Tom Curry like I think I wrote it on Sunday into Monday when that news broke that he was back in the squad properly he was off the rehab list and into the main group that with lots of other people you'd go oh pretty tough to chuck them straight into a test match with no rugby at all but I think we've learned over the years that Tom Curry's a different bloke and he can just kind of do it so I totally get it for Andy Farrell on the Lions tour test series against Australia comes around once every four years or 12 years depending on how you're looking at it you chuck him in does Tom Quarry need to be chucked in for the first game of November against Australia maybe not but I certainly think if he thinks he's refined he's you play him desperate to play and would be livid to be like rested or dropped and if he's available he gets in England's best 15 doesn't he I get that yeah definitely and I guess if you're Borthwick and you're playing a longer game you you say just desperate for him to be fit for the all blacks so why bother risking it however the other caveat is do you want him to play so that he's got an 80 under his belt from the aussie game and therefore maybe doesn't play as much against fiji don't know maybe the other the other thing with it obviously is that ingley got so many options in the back row do they want to see them or like what what's the balance there with that back row selection is it trying to see as many people as possible to work out who the best are or is it sticking with what you think's the best all the way through and then forcing the peppers and pollocks to go no i should be in underhill back as well yeah i would say probably on like long-term money in the bank form you'd probably have now that there's no tom willis you'd probably have curry six underhill seven earl eight but there would be a case to say peppers seven i mean there'd be a case to say Pollock eight or seven we could have fun with this couldn't we with the combinations in the back row I mean it's a shame there's no Ileone it is I would be surprised if like Kenningham's been playing well and does a lot for Quinns but I'd be surprised if he starts but I think with no with no Willis no Ileone I think Bennell probably is going to start at eight yeah you feel like that's most likely if Tom Curry's in that back row then are you looking at a Coles or a Chessham as your six for the line and I would say on that more Coles than Chessham like Chessham's really a lock like he can play six but Coles played six with Pollock at eight for Saints the other day and that went pretty well against Sarri so I'm fascinated to see the shakeout in six seven and eight and probably Schertz 19-20-21 as well and England still have plenty of good options there but what combination are they going to go with final thing I want to mention in terms of the England squad because I think it is worth mentioning Will five props Astro Opoku four jaw can cover both sides yeah and so the news on that one was that Bevan Rod is injured and instead of adding a new prop they added another back row so kenningham and curry to replace ilioni so yeah ashes covering both sides which is incredibly valuable he probably didn't have the best game ever at loose head prop on saturday against leicester like joe hayes looked pretty strong against him hadn't played there in ages but hasn't played there in ages england have always seen him as a loose head really and he's played there for the 20s and sale have always seen him as a tight head we've spoken about that plenty of times but i mean massively valuable and if he can do it why not thomas to tight's quite good at it trevor niacana used to be pretty good at it he battered the lions playing it one side or the other didn't he so super value you look at this squad because it's given them options to be able to then have extra players in in other positions it is so valuable we'll leave that for the england squad we'll come back on to the internationals in a little while on the pod but next up let's get to this because sam warburton spoke to will about the latest developments in welsh rugby last week the wru confirmed its plan to cut the regions from four to three okay sam welcome back to the ruck it's been another newsworthy week in welsh rugby although you could probably say that most weeks couldn't you um so no better time then to get you on to discuss everything following on from your excellent column the other day um we'll get into the detail in in just a second but just to kick off how are you feeling a few days after wru have announced they want to cut the regional sides from four to three?

16:11I think the number three was fairly inevitable. Everybody has said we can't continue as we are, which is four. And there's been a heck of a lot of pushback on two. So it felt like the middle ground, natural middle ground, was going to be three because there has to be some change. But I think two was too far down one end. And I do agree with what Alan Wynne-Jones said. He spoke publicly quite shortly after and said, look, if you have an injury crisis and only two pro teams, some very exposed players could be playing international rugby, which I do agree with. It's the best argument for going against two.

16:48Scotland have two, but I believe, I think it's like nine, at least nine of their players, particularly for this autumn, are playing in England. So they almost rely heavily on the premiership to give some guys some extra exposure. So I do think three is probably where we are. When we compare the number of registered players we have compared to England, for example, England have one team to every four that we have. So if we went off the same ratio as England, we'd have one team, which obviously isn't feasible. So I think three, people say, well, we used to have a lot of teams. The times have changed.

17:21The standards have dramatically gone up around Europe. And I looked at the URC table last night. Now, some of the headlines, which would be like, which are the headlines from my column, which is 25 % of players aren't good enough. It sounds a bit brutal, but that is the truth. And if somebody wants to argue, you look at the bottom of the URC table, there are three Welsh teams at the bottom. There are 14 games played between the three of them with one win. It's just so painfully obvious that it needs to happen. It has to happen. So my first thoughts are I'm glad that somebody has made a change.

17:56WIU have had a lot of criticism over the past few years for not doing anything. At least things are happening. I'm not saying it's perfect, but things are happening. So I'm pleased that a decision has been made and then we can start planning for the future because what was happening previously obviously wasn't working. So I'm glad that change has happened. Yeah, OK. Well, let's delve into some of the detail and stop me if this is things you all know before everyone. But right, so the WA have ended their consultation process after a period of talking to all manner of people about the future of the game in Wales.

18:28About 7000 people surveyed, 31 meetings with players, politicians, the regional clubs, etc, etc, etc. They had initially stated their preference was cutting the four regions to two, but now the view is three regions after that consultation process. And they'll be equally funded, so not a sort of two plus one system, which you've advocated for in the past, Sam, haven't you? Yeah, still do. Yeah, exactly. The funding will be initially 6.4 million, rising to 7.8, which we can get onto that as well. And then the timeline, which seems a little bit vague at the moment, they'll grant three licenses, is the phrase they've used, for teams.

19:04one in the capital, one in the east of the country, one in the west, and they want to reduce as soon as possible. But obviously there are contracts with the URC and for example the Ospreys and Scarlets have a legal agreement to exist until 2027. So we can't imagine unless a turkey votes for Christmas that someone will fall before then. And then there's lots of issues about what happens to the URC and everything else which we can get into. But the sort of headline thing I suppose it most likely means the end of the Ospreys, the Scarlets or both. They could merge or one could sort of choose to die I guess and then there are other elements of a national academy which just seems like a good positive thing supported by two regional training centres two elite women's teams with academy and a domestic league so a lot to unpick Sam where do you want to start the funding thing or the two plus one thing that's always been your preference hasn't it it was what I was hoping if there was going to be four teams remains and we said this at Cardiff there needs to be two plus two.

20:00And by the way, we didn't say at Cardiff we needed that because we're Cardiff with the capital city. That's an application which all four teams have to go through. But otherwise, it breeds sort of mediocrity, I think. I think you need to prioritise two with funding. Again, that's a sticky subject, which two get it, which needs to be an application process where you have to tick off all certain criteria and the two most credible would get it. And there's no guarantee that that would be Cardiff, by the way. But I've always thought if you're going to stick with four, it would have to be two plus two, meaning two get probably a million pound more budget, playing budget than the other two.

20:34If it's a three regional system, then I believe it should be two plus one. And you don't, by the way, leave the one out to draw. You still give them a competitive player salary, but you need to promote two because I think it benefits everybody. You're not going to get three teams competing in Champions Cup and doing well, but there is a potential, I think, that you could get one, possibly two, if they were given greater funding. So that isn't the plan. £6.4 million in two and a half years isn't much money. It's not much money now when Benetton are on£8 million a year, reportedly. I'm not sure that's 100%.

21:08Well, someone like Glasgow will be on more, yeah. Yeah, and Glasgow won the league on 7.4, but that was going back quite a few years ago. So that's always been the argument, I believe, in the WIU's case. We've got to consider that was a few years ago, and now we're looking nearly three years into the future. So I don't think 6.4 is going to get you very far. It's not going to get you very far. It might help retain a lot of Welsh talent if you're not going to go for overseas. But then I think, well, if a private investor wants to come in and they said, well, okay, we'll take the 6.4 funding, but we want to put in another one and a half ourself.

21:37Is that okay? Then we should absolutely endorse that so it can take us up to eight, which would be competitive. I don't think many benefactors are going to do that given the financial state of the regions at the moment. They'll be taking on a lot of debt as it is, but I would love there to be that sort of flexibility. But then rugby operations aren't being controlled by a private investor. rugby operations would be controlled by the WIU and only the commercial interests are controlled by the private investors then I think that off-field success commercially a lot of it comes from on-field success so that doesn't really marry up so I'd be interested to know which benefactors would agree with that and look there was an initial two-team proposal which has done a slight U-turn so maybe the two plus one thing isn't completely off the table once we start talking a little bit more and discovering what might be best for Welsh rugby.

22:27Yeah yeah so on the on the point about the future of particularly the Ospreys and the Scarlets because look they've said they're keeping their options open and one of them could apply for a license somewhere else in the country but that seems unfeasible basically doesn't it so the understanding is that Cardiff will probably still exist I mean the WOU own them at the moment don't they and then the Dragons would be that kind of eastern team so if you were someone like Jack Morgan for example who's already said if the Ospreys don't exist I'm out how are you feeling right now on the eve of the autumn and everything else we've had this before haven't we 2019 there was a proposed merger right before the six nations and that galvanized that team to win a grand slam didn't it but are you just going to work every day going like man can i have a quiet day in in my life yes good question everything was agreed in 2019 it was so close that merger players had agreed even the high profile players had all agreed they were all going to jump on this bandwagon together, which is quite a powerful thing if your senior players come out and say, I'm proud to represent the West.

23:26But the thing is, though, you can't just create a brand new entity. One of them is going to play from either Hletley or they're going to play from likely Swansea. So it's whichever way you brand it, fans are going to see it Swansea. That's not my team, yeah. Yeah. And to be honest, I do feel massively for either set of supporters because it's not going to feel like their team. So there is no perfect solution for this. Somebody's going to be upset, but it almost feels like the Ospreys and Scarlets have been put into a bit of a corner. And it's like, you need to sort it out. Otherwise, one of you is going to go.

24:01And I do feel, I can tell, listen to Ospreys players and fans, Scarlets players and fans, that I think they feel a little bit short-changed. And to be honest, I wouldn't blame them either. I think the reason Cardiff is surviving as its sort of own identity is because, one, just population numbers, not just even playing numbers, supporter base, they have. You look at average attendances over the last three years, they're significantly the best supported team at home. On-field success has been less than the Ospreys and Scarlets, which is where I think fans will feel slightly aggrieved. Cardiff have always remained relatively competitive in comparison, but they haven't had the success of Scarlets.

24:39They haven't had success, certainly at domestic level, of the Ospreys. But the school system, the number of players, the number of clubs is significantly higher. So it's a pathway that can't be ignored if you're looking towards the future. But neither is Cleffey or Ospreys, which is why I'm like, oh, goodness, I actually don't know. But Cardiff is the greatest, most densely populated region, which is why I think they feel it needs its own sort of franchise, I say in quotes. And we've already had statements and counter-statements and all that. And clearly the clubs are going to bat for their own futures, aren't they?

25:12so you've had the Ospreys I think what their banner on their ex-account is Wales is most successful club and you've had people go well we've beaten the All Blacks and stuff like that and then the leadership going does it necessarily matter what happened 40 plus years ago like I don't do you have an understanding of how on earth this is going to untangle because we haven't exactly had a history of everyone getting on and agreeing things in Welsh rugby have we? And I said this in my column I don't think we can I think there's only one probably complaint when we boil it down. And I use the analogy of if I was a head coach at a club or I was a player, because I would have gone through this as a player, or if you're an employee at any workplace, anywhere in the world, and your boss comes up to you and says, I'm sorry, you're going, you've lost your job.

25:55And you were told to walk out the door. You walk out that door very upset because you don't know why. And I feel this is the same thing here. We just don't know why. I think players and fans and stakeholders just want to know why the decisions have been made. We don't need to know all the intricacies. But if, for example, yes, of course, the Dragons, without a shadow of a doubt, have been the worst performing team. That's not even debatable. That's just stating the obvious. But if they said part of our criteria, there was three main parts of our criteria. Number one is going to be, for example, if this was part of the strategy, I'm making this up.

26:32But if they said, number one, number one, okay, we appreciate that club rugby, which is based heavily on volunteers, which it is. I'm a volunteer at my local club. We can't rely on volunteers for creating a national team. That's recreational. But when it gets to ages 15 and above, we're going to focus on delivery in schools to develop our top talent. Now, the Gwent region has superior infrastructure to, for example, two or three other regions when it comes to school delivery, density of population and players. So that's why they get the nod. They're also close to England. So if you wanted an Anglo-Welsh league, it makes it more feasible.

27:08And commercially, it makes it more feasible because they're closer to England as well. So they're more likely to get sponsors from across the bridge. They're the main reasons that we think we need to keep the East. Now, if they said that, then at least people might not agree still, but at least they would know why. They go, okay, I understand the rationale. Might not agree with it, but I understand the rationale. That's what I'm trying to piece together myself. So I think that's probably the next stage in this or the next thing I would expect is just so people can at least make peace with the decisions.

27:38I think they just like a little bit more information on why rather than just saying what's going to happen without any explanation. I think that's what's probably confusing a lot of fans would help them move on with whichever call is made. Yeah. On the fan point as well, do you think it's a sort of consistent challenge to people who love their rugby in Wales to go, right, you had your club side, Then in early noughties, you got a regional side and you've just almost got used to supporting them. Now we're going to change that again. It's quite, there's this churn of, oh, hang on, let's try a different thing for five, 10, 15, 20 years, then do it again.

28:09Do you feel like there might be a drift of people going like, look, honestly, I just, I don't know what to support anymore. Yeah, and I don't blame them. I was at Bath and Bristol the other day. It was awesome. It was niggle. And it was, it was almost felt, and Ellis Gaines said this pre-match, it's like it's a battle of the classes. it was almost like middle class versus working class you know like it was and and you felt that niggle on the field the players and like you know miles reed who's a baths boy through and through edis genge bristolian like they were going at it you know and it was awesome see it was town or city versus town v city like and i love that and you know i go to the premiership and they've got like bristol average 17 000 people if you're gonna if you're gonna cut bristol i would you've I mean, this is hypothetical.

28:54You'd be like, to be fair, they average, not even their biggest games, they average 17 ,000. Most of our regions average 5 ,000 or 6 ,000 a year. So they're not, the fans who are aggrieved, I'm like, well, it's a minority of people who support rugby in the country because 75 ,000 will watch Wales. A million might tune in on TV, but no one's really that loyal to a region. So it's actually a minority of people who support the regions who are rugby fans. So I do find we're in a tricky situation where there's not a huge fan base that you're actually upset in. It's just those minorities make a heck of a lot of noise.

29:32They're the ones on your forums, on your comment sections. There's a huge number of people in Welsh rugby, if we're being perfectly honest, who are a bit oblivious to what's going on. But they're just looking forward to the Six Nations and one Wales. That is, you know, domestically, we say it's our national game. I watched Cardiff City the other day, took my boy to watch Cardiff City. Over 20 ,000 people there, they're effectively in the third tier of professional football in England and Wales. Third tier, and they get in triple, over triple some of the attendances that our top five clubs make.

30:04So we're in a sticky situation that there's not a huge fan base. There's not a huge fan base at domestic level. And yes, of course, if you're going to rewrite new regions now, like one in the West, you're fighting for maybe a future generation, so you've got to play the long game. But again, that's going to upset a lot of people. There's no perfect solution to it. We've mentioned England a few times, and this always comes back up, doesn't it? I mean, we understand that, I guess, the URC probably aren't that happy about losing a Welsh team because they would have to reorganise their league. And if there were three, they'd be an uneven number in that league.

30:38Constant questions about could the Welsh clubs join the Prem? I imagine you'd love that. I mean, the understanding again is that the Prem clubs as a whole block of 10 would have to vote for it. But they do want to expand. We know that. At the moment, it looks like they want to expand within their own borders. But can you see a vision, Sam, where the Welsh teams are in the Prem or a different version of it, a British league of some description? Do you feel like that would supercharge Welsh rugby as much as everywhere else? Players can't bite the hand that feeds them. I reckon every player would prefer an Anglo-Welsh.

31:11every coach, most, I won't say every, that's a majority of players, majority of coaches and majority of fans are like an Anglo-Welsh. But they can't say it because they can't bite the hand that feeds them. It's just the blatantly obvious and the numbers stack that up. When Cardiff, albeit it's in European games, when they play English teams, they make two, three times the revenue of playing Leinster who are traditionally champions. Two, three times the revenue because people care about it more. I don't think people buy into the product of the URC. Now, when I've said I don't like the URC, the quality of rugby is great.

31:44The quality of rugby from the Irish teams, we all know we see them in Europe. The quality of rugby from the Scottish teams is good. Italian-sized Benetton have improved. The South African teams are great. It's not a quality issue. The quality is excellent. It's just that the fans don't buy into it. They're not bothered about those rivalries, whereas an Anglo-Welsh, for whatever reason, historical reasons, they get up for, which is why you can't buy a ticket when England play Wales in the principality. So I've always just thought that I think we need England, but I don't know if England need us.

32:17You know, if I'm being honest, I'd love to go into an Anglo-Welsh, but if England are looking across and looking at the URC table, they're not really going to look at our regions and say, you're going to enhance the quality of our league. So if I was working for Premiership Rugby right now, I'd say while they're in their current state, I'm not too fussed on them joining our league because we don't want them to, no disrespect, turn into another Newcastle Red Bulls. Hopefully Red Bulls improve, but it could be the same standards as the Red Bulls this season, which won't benefit anybody. I do think reducing to three improves the likelihood of an Anglo-Welsh.

32:46I don't think four teams would be accepted. So perhaps it's one avenue of a means to an end going to three. But then if Worcester, London Irish, Wasps will come back, then is there going to be any room for us? I'm not sure. But I do think that most people want Anglo-Welsh. But of course, it's going to be in breach of contract of anyone to say that who's involved in the game whilst we're currently in the URC, so they can't say it. So we could speak about this for about four hours, couldn't we, Sam? But I'd love to talk a little bit more about the players because there's a new cowboy in town, I suppose, isn't there?

33:18Battling for these guys' signatures and it's R360. And we've had a long discussion about this on our pod about how R360 could work. and our view was that where it could work the most or who the players they could recruit are the welsh guys and it seems like some are very interested why would you not be can you see that being an avenue here that or the fear is that wales with all of this sort of maelstrom and mess and chaos lots of the top talent just goes i'm either going to go to england top 14 or chase the r360 dosh people like reese sammet jack morgan thomas williams they've all been mentioned as people who are looking at that as an avenue and therefore you then lose control over your top test players yeah that's a good point I think I was fortunate that we never really had this problem guys did explore France a couple of guys you know um but I was offered significantly more money to go in France but I guess I was lucky that I had a national team who was competitive which was a huge carrot that was dangling in front of me which was a more important carrot than um any sort of financial offer I could have had abroad now I I feel for the players the Welsh players because if they were they which we we felt as a Welsh squad that every single six nations we went in we felt we had a chance of winning which was a great situation to be in but those the boys at the moment don't have that which is why I wouldn't blame them if they went away because they haven't got that national team success which just which naturally is gravitating them towards staying in Wales so I wouldn't blame them for that reason if anybody left to play in England which is an exceptional league by the way um the gallagher prem like sometimes english guys will talk about it um pundits i'm like boys like compared to what i'm watching back home not watching but like the from a fan's perspective at the crowds and the atmosphere i'm like you've got a great product guys it's a great league so if anybody said you know what i've looked across at the prem i fancy playing in front of 15 000 people every week i want to go to franklin's gardens packed out i want to go to the shed you know king's home packed out you know i want to play in the wreck Eckbath packed out, Bristol packed out.

35:16Like, I wouldn't blame them. That's what you want as a player. You want to experience these things, why you sacrifice so much. So it is a risk. I imagine it's more of a risk for the older players because that national team is always going to be a carrot for your younger guys who want to play more tests for your national team. But imagine players who are 30 and above who have got a reputation. I imagine R360 is a huge threat towards keeping some of our players. Yeah, okay. let's end it on on two fronts i'll do a negative one first and then a positive one if that's all right so there's a positive one agree well i guess the first bit of it is do you as someone who's like given your life and soul to welsh rugby and achieve so much because of it find it just so utterly depressing that there's this kind of constant lurch from one saga to another without seemingly there being this great light at the end of the tunnel like does it just depress you having to talk about this constantly?

36:13Honestly, I take zero pleasure in being pitch side or writing columns when Wales are in a bad place. It really pains me. I don't want to be talking ill of Welsh Tribune or players. It's what's given me pretty much everything that I have now. So I don't like it at all. And part of me thinks of, oh, it's not worth doing this. But you do it because you're passionate about it. It's because you care. You genuinely care about Welsh rugby being great again. And it's not just about the players or the fans. Yes, they're a massive part of it. But there's a lot of Welsh businesses who probably survive off match day in the stadium and the economy and the greater effect that it has.

36:59So when I say upsetting, I mean, God, you've got to put things into perspective. Health and family is important. and there's people out there with real, real significant problems regarding illness. So we've got to take it with a pinch of salt. But it does, I'd much rather Wales be good. I take zero pleasure in this happening at the moment, you know, zero pleasure. So I've still got great friends involved in it. And you desperately want Wales to do well. So yeah, not at all. I'm always a glass half full guy. I'm sort of just saying to myself, look, we're just going through a bit of a lull, maybe a bit like the 80s and 90s.

37:33We sort of kicked out of that a bit towards the end of the noughties. and we had a reasonable success sort of in the teens, but maybe this is just our quiet spell. You know, France went 10 years without winning a Six Nations recently, so before the most recent one when DuPont come through and the likes. So maybe this is just our time where we're just a little bit low, but hopefully in a few years' time, you know, three to five years, we kick out of it again. Yeah, so you've led me on to the positive question, I suppose, or the positive thoughts to end it on. What does bring you hope that this is kind of the beginning of the end of the saga and that this can be a plan to sort of kickstart Welsh rugby again and get it back to where it has been?

38:10The rugby gene hasn't just disappeared in Welsh rugby. I just think you just need to look harder to find it, i.e. pathways. And I agree with something Jamie Roberts said recently. He's like, we're not going to have three or four competitive regions. We just don't have the playing numbers to do that in comparison to Ireland, England, France, South Africa. But we can find 15 great players to make a national team, which is what we did fairly recently. It's what we had in the noughties. is what we had in the 70s. The great team in the 70s, there wasn't 40 players banging the door down there to start for that team.

38:40You know, that was a spine of players who stayed fit for big games and delivered. And I think of the analogy of Fiji 7s. Fiji 7s are never going to have a strong domestic multiple teams, but they can find 12 amazing players to make up a world-class 7s team. That's the analogy Wales can do. I don't accept that we can't find 15 top class players from across the south and also i mentioned the north the north's been very quiet and all this as well but they they've got their hand up going hello like and i said this like there's 800 000 people there 700 000 people up there they haven't had a gene mutation up in the north because they're so isolated that they're not physically able to play rugby it's ridiculous to think that we can't create talent up north and i remember speaking to somebody very high up in Sale Sharks saying, mate, we actively pursue the north of Welsh rugby because you don't.

39:36So I do think that more needs to be done up there. It's very south heavy. But I think you can't tell me, we scan across our whole country, we can't get in the next five years, 15 top class players to create and feel the really competitive national team. If you have enough resources, enough people on the ground and enough development across five years, once you find those players and you keep them in the system, we can have a competitive national team without a shadow of a doubt. I believe that. So yeah, I don't think we're going to ever have the depth of other teams and nations, but we can definitely find 15.

40:11And that's what Jamie said. And I do completely agree with him on that. Yeah, right. Well, I think people will listen to this and go, there's some Senate elections next year, Sam. Do you want to put your hat in the ring for politics, rugby politics, anything? Sam for prime minister. It's easy when we're sat here, Will, isn't it? It's easy when we're sat here. We're not in the line of fire here. Yeah. Well, look, let's hope that, I mean, look, it'd be naive to suggest there aren't going to be hundreds of arguments and wranglings and more chaos to come, but let's hope that there is some sort of blueprint for a future that looks bright for Welsh rugby.

40:44But for now, Sam, really appreciate your time. And yeah, let's see how it all shakes out. Yeah, thanks, Will. Thanks for having me on. I'll see you on the next one.

40:56Your phone is your lifeline. Calling your kid to say goodnight, waiting on a job callback,

41:01Alfie: or just sending a meme to your best friend when it's been that kind of day. Wherever life takes you, the TextNow app keeps you connected for free. Get a real phone number, unlimited talk and text, and 5G data for your favorite apps. All for$0 a month. No fixed contracts, no hidden fees, no panic when bills pile up. Just phone service that's there when it matters most. text now we've got your back download text now in your app store today wireless plans require the purchase of a sim card visit text now.com for terms and conditions so great to get the thoughts of sam warburton on let's be honest what is not a straightforward situation in wales but a pleasure to have him on the ruck and make sure you read his columns whenever they're in the paper or online for the times will more international rugby in just a moment but firstly we should mention the prem uh so the final round of prem fixtures before the internationals we have a bit of a break now and then resume at the end of november there's a couple of bits i want to pick out here but i've seen a few people saying bath 40 bristol 14 a final scoreline which is incredibly one-sided it was a closer game for a lot of the match but something we wanted to talk about with this will is ag and needle housery let's call it and does rugby actually want it because we're gone we were chatting about this weren't we so we saw it in the I think Bristol Bath is probably alongside Leicester, Northampton and Harlequin's Saris as being a proper, genuine rivalry.

42:25Alfie: Yeah. In that the two teams don't like each other. There's a bit of needle amongst the fans as well. Super local. Yeah, exactly. It's actually a proper rivalry. A bit of a class thing, as Ellis Genge plays into nicely. Ellis Genge leans into that massively, doesn't he? And we love all that, by the way. We're saying that's a really good thing. And that is what the Prem wants to promote and help build the league. And if you look on their socials, they're looking at all those scuffles and putting it out there and all that sort of stuff. But then you also have the officials, it seems. And I think we saw it at the weekend.

42:55Alfie: I think we saw it in the semifinal at the wreck between Bath and Bristol at the end of last season. They are absolutely desperate to have none of it. Yeah, I find it's really interesting because the whole rebrand of the Gallagher Prem without the EOS ship and all that is about intensity punchiness a bit aggro we've seen how saracens have cast themselves as everyone's favorite villains on social media they're funny on fun job they're funny on social media they've really lent into that really nicely bristol being good at that sort of stuff messing about on social media for a long time we know that rivalries and a bit of niggle sells like people want that we don't want it to be nice and it's it's taken a long time for rugby to drag itself to being okay with going yeah I don't like them and like we've had so many times here where it's been in England Scotland week and someone has accidentally used the h word oh dear we hate them we hate them they hate us and everyone's gone mad over it was now rugby's sort of gone yeah we kind of like that that's what people are here for that's the whole point isn't it that we don't like each other we want to beat the other team was it over officiated but then on the field it feels like they've not communicated that to the referees and the referees likely would say well we're here to referee the game we don't want all this nonsense they're pushing and shoving and like holding someone's collar up against their chin kind of thing and all the stuff which is a bit unnecessary but it's this sort of big secret isn't it where everyone goes oh you don't want to see that and we're all going yes we do yes we do we really like it it's quite fun and like ollie lawrence throwing the ball at who was it uh elizalde's head and then they're all kicking off and you think quite like that that's quite fun and some people will go oh come on what's he doing and it's a bit like well it's a bit of fun isn't it it felt like the tmo davy rose and ian tempest the referee were determined to shut all of that down as soon as possible and were so quick to nitpick over those little fights watch it for four minutes on the screen and go so who escalated that what was the reason that that kicked off how can we pick out that guy in the brawl to make sure that they get a yellow card and you're just feeling if someone's punched someone in the face absolutely definitely massive red car huge ban we never see that if it's like a little scuffle that actually then gets clipped up on social media and everyone loves on the prem social media channels everything else then what are we doing trying to like over officiate it i think that's an interesting contrast between like how the league is trying to sell itself and how it's actually being refereed on the field i agree and i think it's i find it really fascinating the van graan bath because they will never come out and say it because his thing is always we're very we stay humble we focus on ourselves we don't talk about other teams but I think in that Bath team selection in that Bath performance in the way they finished the game when the game was absolutely done that they still wanted to score another try it was personal for them it was do Bristol let's rub their noses in 100 % and I am a Bristol fan and I love it because I think that's what the rivalry is about I think Bristol a couple of years ago when let's be honest Bath were terrible and near the bottom of them of the Prem and Bristol were absolutely hammering them they were rubbing their noses in it so when you get the opportunity it's all part of it when you're the defending champs rub it rub their noses in it we were messaging each other about it over the weekend i was watching it slightly later than live because we were out and we recorded it but i found it fascinating that there was no point in bath continuing that game but they did beyond 90 minutes but there was a penalty they got in their 22 and you saw will stewart like rolling his hand as if to go play on play on play on we want to do it more like rub it in and then arundel gets that runaway try they put the gloss on it but that try didn't get them an extra point didn't deny bristol a point there was no reason for that bit of rugby to happen at all other than bath just sticking two fingers up and going we've done you here and i quite liked it yeah no i agree i'm really interested actually bath fans listening email us the ruck at the times.co.uk because bath bristol is a funny one for bristol it's always been bath as their biggest rivals whereas for bath bristol for a lot of their history have been a bit of an irrelevant not even being the same league exactly Yeah, and it's been Gloucester in terms of the local rivalry or Leicester in terms of one of the historical rivalry.

46:57Alfie: But for Barth fans, do you now view Bristol as your main rivalry? Or do you still view them as the, oh yeah, they make a lot of noise, but it's still Gloucester or Leicester. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's different because Everton have always been in the league, really. But is it a bit like the Everton-Liverpool thing or the historically United City? That's probably a better one. And now when City started winning things, it was like, oh god these guys are really annoying aren't they yeah whereas before it's like oh them lot down the road yeah finish us off on the prem though will question for you so we've reached the end of this first block as i mentioned it hits that funny part of the season now where you break we then come back very briefly then it's champions cup then we'll have more games over christmas then it'll be champions so it's very very stop start now but we have already had five games which in an 18 round regular season is a pretty sizable chunk which side has impressed you the most and which side do you think have the most concerns um i've got sort of a few answers which is for the impress the most one so i think it almost sneakily northampton are unbeaten because they got that weird draw didn't they well they started the season almost unconvincingly because they kept giving up massive leads then they nearly lost to gloucester but snuck at the end thanks to anthony bellow so that didn't really feel like a big definitive way here we are but then they just go So smash Saracens, four tries for Freeman, play really well.

48:15And they're quietly top of the league and unbeaten. You go, oh, OK, that's good. And by the by, good news for England, that, because quite a lot of their backline are Newhampton Saints, as we've pointed out. Bath are clearly very impressive.

48:27Alfie: But you probably expected Bath to be impressive. We've expected that, so maybe we're not sort of so impressed, because if we were so impressed, we probably would have beaten Tigers as well. Bristol are my next ones, because I think in their context of being impressive, because they've got 15 players out injured. And by the way, their team they can put out is still pretty good, particularly in the pack. But you look at what they've been able to do without Randall, McGinty, Rhys Summit, Ibbatoia and Jordan. And you think, well, look, they've won three games, lost two games and that scoreline probably flattered Bath a bit.

49:00Like they gave him a bloody nose, didn't they? So you think, man, if they get all of those lads back for the back end of the season, where there are like eight rounds of Prem in a row after the, maybe even nine after the six nations you think they could be a force to be reckoned with so

49:13Alfie: that's on my impressive side you can't name all the teams though you're going to have named the whole division by the end i quite like what extra about too that feels like they've sort of rolled back the clock a bit and it's like watching them five years ago with a really gnarly punchy pack and duffing people up at sandy park which is quite good on the sort of unimpressive side of it i think newcastle's obvious like they can't win a game and they've still won two matches in two and a bit of seasons now which is bad for everybody and then I just find Quinns weird because they're just so Quinns like beat Saracens whoa absolutely terrible against X the Chiefs oh so they're like that are they oh no not really because then they go and smash Newcastle which has context around it so maybe they're my disappointing I mean Gloucester's the one where you go they're low in the table and it's their worst start to the season basically ever five defeats from five as well but you feel like they're I mean they've got like 17 players out injured themselves so you just think that feels I mean it's tough isn't it that feels like an unfair position for them to be in and Newcastle fans will go well it's the same record as we've got but I think there's more context around them than Newcastle yeah okay you've absolutely dodged that by the way because you have named pretty much okay my most impressive I'm gonna say Northampton and my least impressive I'm gonna say Quince there you go there we go thank you very much I agree with you Northampton and I think most impressive, given that the questions off the back of last year where they got to the Champions Cup final was, all right, you did that, but your league form and defending your title wasn't great.

50:38Alfie: The fact they're unbeaten. I want to mention Sale in terms of concerns, just because, and I picked them to be the Prem champions on our preview pod at Twickenham, and I'm worried about that because I just see a team that at the moment are... Didn't you bottle that, though? Didn't you give two answers? Well, no, I said Bristol as a joke because I'm a Bristol fan, and then I said no, Sale. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, of course it was. but then I said sale and I just worry about so I have a Massey Taylor said sale didn't he he did yeah on our post I think they've been I just think they've been blown we saw them blow hot and cold and play almost two separate games in in the match at the weekend great match by the way against Leicester in the end but Leicester were well in the lead at halftime then sale turned up we saw them get blown away I know they had cards and things but still the manner of the defeat to Saracens I'm just haven't been convinced by them so far given that I think for a lot of us we probably expected them to be right up there so i probably would have some concerns about them yeah yeah they just we've said it a few times but it's just they're a playoff team but do they have the absolute champion mentality to be the winning team at the end of the year uh let's finish off then so internationals this weekend we've spoken about england australia we'll also have more coming your way on thursday once we've got the teams we'll be previewing that south africa japan That's happening at Wembley, Scotland, USA and Ireland, New Zealand in Chicago.

51:55Alfie: We got another email from Greg, Will, who emailed the ruck at the times dot co dot UK. He said, I'm interested in your predictions on how many wins the top tier countries will get these autumn internationals. I have a southern hemisphere bias. I'm keen to hear your views. And then he gave a breakdown. I won't go through absolutely all of them, but he predicted South Africa to win all five of their matches. he thought Australia, England, New Zealand would all do okay kind of about three wins and then the teams that he thought would be disappointed he had Ireland, Scotland in there, Wales what do you reckon?

52:28So Alex is not here today because he's writing a piece about some of what I'm about to say which is the interesting bit I suppose for world rankings nauseous is that after this November the rankings freeze because in December, early December we're going to get the World Cup draw for 27 so it's slightly different for this is a long way of me getting to my answer but I'll get there that's all right it is it's slightly different to previous world cups because we're going to have 24 teams not 20 so the top seeds will be the top six in the world ranking so you think New Zealand Ireland South Africa France pretty set they're not going to disappear out of that top six but it's the interesting ones on the edges so it's Australia England Scotland Argentina that kind of grouping of who's going to go into the top six or stay in the top six or who's going to drop england it's all in their favor to stay in the top six they've got all these home matches they should really win they should definitely win three of them and then the new zealand one historically is always difficult even when they're better than new zealand like maybe they were last year they still managed to find a way of losing yeah they don't they don't beat new zealand do they also so and look they were good against them away and lost both of those didn't they in 24 so that's always you can't look at an england new zealand game and say england will win that because they don't regularly four would be exceptional for england obviously i feel like i'm worried because we always get here in november and we go right here we go the definitive autumn where england kick on and then you end it and go sort of samey kind of not one thing or the other are they gonna i don't know be better in the six nations you feel like four from five six nations three nil summer tour got to back that up with at least three hopefully four if you're england wins in november three wins that's progress three wins is a good november two and you're going yeah why do they keep going up and then down and then up and then down again so that's england aussie are in a similar boat because i think world rugby would be and obviously they would be desperate for them to be a top seed at the world cup and look the caveat is those pools don't actually have that much jeopardy over them because only the very bottom people in each pool and a couple of thirds are going out to start with so it's unlikely you're going to get a 2015 scenario where you get like england going out the pool or last time where aussie went out the pool but it and actually maybe world rugby would go it'd be quite fun to have like new zealand australia opening night wouldn't it but aussie want to avoid that so they want to be in the top six and i think they've got i mean look the caveat on this weekend particularly is they don't have o 'connor skelton they didn't have hooper or ikital because of the international window it's being played outside of but they should they they are battle hardened let's say they've they've had a long year of tests the other way you look at it is there are they tired but they should take some scalps scotland another interesting one they've got the all blacks and never beaten them they like some they like i feel like i sort of accidentally drive by scotland quite a lot on this pod which

55:23Alfie: which i don't really mean to but we get a lot of people accusing us of anti-scottish scotland are funny aren't they because they revel in the glory of losing to new zealand closely so my cousin a few years my cousin who listens to the pod and is scottish has predicted they're going to beat the all okay well that would be incredible historic and that would be a real swing in the rankings point so i mean new zealand the only thing for them is to just win all of their games that's always the way south africa france is going to be mega and ireland south africa as well prediction of south africa beating france away is pretty good yeah and ireland away which could well and Ireland I'm fascinated by.

55:58We mentioned it briefly on the pod the other day and Peter O 'Reilly wrote a long piece about them and the USA thing and all that. You would suspect that they are slightly undercooked to play the All Blacks because basically none of their lines are played. But also they've been in training together for far longer. So yeah, if Ireland slip off, that narrative that's building about them getting a bit old and do they need to regenerate their team grows another leg, doesn't it?

56:22Alfie: Yeah, absolutely. We've kind of talked around it there, Greg, but you'll forgive us. but I appreciate you sending us an email if any of you would like to do so. The Ruck at the times.co.uk. One we didn't mention, sorry, is Wales. Just win a game. Yeah. That's better, isn't it? Yeah. With all the chaos we talked about with Sam, just win a bloody game. Yeah, give themselves some sort of positivity. So into the November International. I love this time of year. I absolutely love November. I'm really excited to be at all of the England games. We will, of course, be podding after each England game. But before that, we're also going to be podding again on Thursday through international windows.

56:54Alfie: as we try and bring you a couple more episodes a week so on thursday we'll be previewing england australia we'll have both teams by then so looking forward to it ready to go will well literally hit them with the schedule this is i mean you've kind of done it there but each week in november you're going to get three pods from us aren't you yep maybe even a four sometimes if something happens but we're going to get this one the monday one which is nice chatting wherever we are sometimes it'll be in a studio we might even film it healthy might even go on youtube in future look at us growing and all being exciting yeah monday episodes might be having a bit of a spruce up so keep an eye out for that we'll get videos your way slightly different cast list we might share it around a bit more we've had a lot of cohesion on the pod recently with me you and alex but we want to spread the love we've got lots of rugby writers sometimes will you need bold selections yeah we do yeah so we're going to bring a few of our wider cast in for those monday ones trying to midweek one thursday one around team announcement tea time that probably be quite england focused but obviously pick up the news of whatever else is going on and then saturday nights into sunday mornings are twickenham excitable shouting ones where we go whoa what happened there they're my favorite ones so so three a week saturday nights monday mornings slash afternoons probably thursdays there you go that's your schedule for the pod make sure you get in touch with us enjoy the autumn and thank you so much for listening this has been the ruck the journalist rugby podcast from the times and the sunday times Health care can feel complicated.

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