BONUS: Reform shake Labour to its core

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1:03Let me be clear, these are really tough results. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. And the voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. I was elected to meet those challenges, and I'm not going to walk away. I think overall what's happened is a truly historic shift in British politics. It's very clear that the new politics is the Green Party versus reform. I said that the Green Party were going to replace Labour. That's exactly what we did in Gorton and Denton. It's what we've done in Hackney and we're seeing that right across the country. What did we say?

1:42We said Conservatives are coming back and here we are.

1:49Welcome to an election special edition of The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. I'm Stephen Swimford, the political editor of The Times. I'm Laura Spirit. I'm the deputy political editor of The Sunday Times. Look, we haven't got Patrick Maguire with us today. The reason being that he's currently on a helicopter with Nigel Farage heading, I think, we think to St Helens and then crisscrossing back down for Farage's victory speech, which is going to be in Essex. But it is, Laura, pretty much as we expected. It is a tectonic day in British politics. We are looking at the death of two-party politics.

2:23It's gone. It's over. at the ballot box. And we are currently seeing a kind of reform, obviously, triumphing across the country. Labour is being decimated. The Tories are being decimated. The Green insurgency is happening as we speak. They're counting the votes in London, but we expect significant breakthroughs for the Greens. And so that's it. I think the duopoly, as it has existed for so long, is now over. And then at the same time, we've got really historic results in Wales and in Scotland as well. They haven't been announced yet, but they will be shortly. Looks like Labour is going to finish third, possibly in Scotland, maybe second, but probably third.

2:59And definitely third in Wales, where it's been disemboweled almost as a party. I mean, it's pretty extraordinary. Yeah, it's massively extraordinary. I think it will be crucial to see what the final results are. Of course, we know reform up when we're recording this, more than 600 seats, Labour down almost 500 seats. Of course, before these elections, we had some pretty astonishing predictions from people like Stephen Fisher, a professor at Oxford, that Labour could lose close to 2 ,000 seats and that reform could gain in excess of 2 ,000 seats. We also had Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and elections expert who was predicting Labour lose more than 1 ,800 seats and reform gain more than 1 ,500 seats.

3:39Now, at the moment, it's not looking necessarily like Labour's losses will amount to just that much. I mean, it's still unclear. It looks like their losses have picked up a little bit in proportion to those elections in the last couple of hours. So we just don't know. But if they do follow significantly short, I wonder what your thoughts are about whether or not there'll be some Labour MPs who consider it a good night. And we should say not because the Labour Party has managed expectations particularly well, but because others have kind of inadvertently perhaps done it for them a little bit. So I think the big question is, what does this mean for Keir Starmer?

4:07right and the best that we can assess at the moment is he is going to limp on that you can have an absolutely shocking as one cabinet minister said to me earlier set of election results and still there is no appetite to remove him we need to just talk about why that is because let's face it it doesn't get much worse than this okay on expectation management it might have got slightly worse but this is a historically bad set of election results uh you know labour has dominated politics in Wales for 100 years. It's nowhere to be seen today. You are seeing Labour lose Heartland areas, you know, Wakefield, Tameside, Blackburn, Darwin.

4:46It's gone to no overall control. Areas across swathes of northern England, where it's been in power for a long time, gone. We're going to see real damage done in the capital where so many Labour MPs have their seats. So that's the challenge here. You would have thought that if there is going to be an event that could galvanise change. This would be it. It doesn't appear to be the case. So just the lay of the land as it currently is. And look, by the time you come out on Sunday, this may all be wrong. But at the moment, Andy Burnham is holding his council and we're told he's not going to make a public intervention over the course of the weekend.

5:18We are also told that West Streeting is very much going to do what he said he'd do before these results. He is not going to come out and say anything. We are told that Angela Rayner is absolutely furious at what's happening. She's looking at the decimation of her local authority, particularly she's spending this afternoon ringing around all of her colleagues locally who have lost their seats. But the point being, when I talk to people in Cabinet, no one is moving. They are all saying that there needs to be a change, but they are not talking about a change of Prime Minister. They are talking about a change of gear from him, a change of policy, and they're all very worried about it.

5:54But no, the herd is not moving. Yeah, I mean, this is what someone in Number 10 said to me earlier, you know, In their view, these results signal a desire for change, but not desire for change in Alito. Now, there'll be plenty of Labour MPs and cabinet ministers who will say privately that Kirstama's popularity is on the floor. And clearly that has played a significant part of this. And you have had people, including the Welsh Labour leader, who have said that he comes up on the doorstep for Kirstama. So clearly, I mean, we'd be completely remiss to pretend that that has not been a facet of this loss for Labour in some form.

6:23That has definitely played a part. But I think you're right that the absence of a first mover, somebody that's willing to make that initial move to try and depose him, does work in Keir Starman's favour. That's not to say that next week isn't laced with a huge amount of political risk. We have an intervention, we think, from the prime minister coming on probably Monday, where, of course, we'll hear a number of things. We're trying to work out exactly what that will be, of course, at the moment. But, you know, chief among them, this sense that he wants to acknowledge and take responsibility for the fact that there have been serious losses on his watch and to try and outline how exactly the Labour Party is going to change and the government will change as a result of this.

6:56You've also got, of course, the King's Speech, where Labour will outline its legislative priorities, if there are conspicuous absences in that, if it doesn't go so well, if indeed they're not impressed by Starmer's speech on Monday. I think that could provide some sort of momentum to some of those who might want to challenge him at that point. But I think you're right at the moment that it feels like the energy from this weekend is fast sapping out. Let's just go, where is Starmer's head? So I think you saw it very bluntly. So we had an extraordinary story in The Times this morning, which was that there was a private meeting between Ed Miliband and Keir Starmer about a fortnight ago.

7:29So Ed Miliband, great friend of Starmer's, one of his champions, actually, in becoming Labour leader and then Prime Minister, as loyal as they come. And he had this private meeting where he sat next to Starmer and they discussed the aftermath of these elections. And Ed Miliband suggested, look, according to the account that we had, you should consider setting out a timetable for your departure. There's a lot of pressure here. And his concern when it comes to Ed Miliband is actually what is to come next. The civil war that's going to grip the Labour Party and convulse over the next year is going to be so damaging that there may be better to set out a timetable for your departure.

8:06Now, obviously, Stammer said no to that. This is a guy that does not want to go anywhere and disagreed. And we ran the story yesterday. We went to Miliband's people. They didn't deny it. They said, we don't accept this account. When you ask them, what bit of the account do you not accept? They're very unclear on that. And also number 10, again, didn't deny it. And the prime minister was asked about it. This morning didn't deny it, but he did give an answer. And his answer was in just over a four-minute interview. This is all we're going to see from Starmer today. He said, I will not walk away and plunge this country into chaos.

8:37And he said four times, I will not walk away. and he said the message from voters at this election is that they want change they want things to go further and faster they are not satisfied with the status quo but what he didn't say which you know Beth Rigby from Sky News was interviewing him and she she repeatedly put it to him is is the change that the voters want not you and he rejected that premise entirely Labour is in a state of stasis effectively where you have a wounded highly unpopular prime minister lots of voters think he should go, but the cabinet are not strong enough to do anything about it.

9:13There is no clear successor at the moment making a move or willing to do so. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, that may change, of course, but it doesn't seem like there's any initial reaction. I mean, we haven't had big beasts coming out in the hours since polls closed to suggest that he would go. You've had the odd pair. You've had suggestions. Of course, I mean, we should note from the unions, We have now seen two union leaders have been very, very forthright in their opposition to the prime minister in the wake of these election results. That is in itself significant, but it's not decisive. And I do think we were always looking at a weekend where you need some big figure slash figures to come out and be able to clinch any sort of scenario that would involve Keir Starmer walking away from Downing Street.

9:54So let's just, those union leaders briefly, Sharon Graham put out quotes which said everything but the prime minister should go. She said essentially that it's an existential moment. We must change or die. She argues there needs to be a pivot towards the working classes. And I think the other one was Andrew Egan, wasn't it? Yes, who said, I think I'm paraphrasing slightly, but something to the effect of, we need to change not just the leader, but we need a sort of whole systems change. As if the kind of, yeah, we would call that burying the lead in journalism. So the unions want him out, but we should talk about Andy Burnham.

10:26So as part of our splash this morning, we were told that Burnham does have someone that is willing to step aside for him, triggering a by-election. that could lead to his return. And this is going to become a massive point of tension if it does come to fruition. We're not clear who that MP is. Everyone publicly denies it, and I guess they would until it's real. But there are two things that are worth bearing in mind on this. One, if there is a by-election, there is no guarantee that Andy Burnham would win it. We are seeing the Greens make serious inroads in Manchester in these elections. And so it isn't a given that if he was.

10:58And two, this is where the nub is, and this is where the really good story is that I imagine will be a prominent part of what we splash tomorrow, Starmer will not let him stand. He will do what he did last time and say, no, you have to stay as the mayor of Greater Manchester. And, you know, Manchester is too big a prize to surrender to reform. And actually, you know, this is more damaging, will just lead to more psychodrama. So you're going to have Starmer say no, and you're going to have two very important people saying you should let him stand. You're going to have Ed Miliband reiterating his position publicly, which he made last time, that Andy Burnham should be allowed to return to Westminster.

11:34And you're also going to have Lucy Powell, who's the deputy leader. She's going to say publicly he should be allowed to stand. So you're going to have this real tension if this avenue does open up. And we'll see how it plays out over the weekend. But that is fascinating because essentially you're going to have a Starmer locked in a battle with senior cabinet ministers on whether Andy Burnham should be allowed to return. and that will become a real test of nerve if it does come to that. Yeah, definitely. And I mean, the phrase we're already hearing, that they need their best players on the pitch, is being uttered by some Labour MPs already.

12:07I'm sure you will hear that from others over the course of the weekend. Many of them look at the polling of Andy Burnham, you know, the only leader, according to more uncommon polling that we included in the Sunday Times recently, that voters think the country would be better off with than under Keir Starmer. That is strikingly different to the numbers for Angela Rayner and even for Wes Streeting. So that is behind, I think, a lot of the desire from some in the Cabinet and also, as we've noted elsewhere, to give Andy Burnham the opportunity to stand. But you're right that No. 10 will push back forcefully on that.

12:40They believe that there's been no change in the NEC, that that would still firmly block him. You know, I think we've seen some public pronouncements on X and elsewhere recently from some of those NEC members indicating that there's been no change of heart from them in recent days. But of course, they will come under a lot of pressure from some of the progressives in the party who will say, actually this is the only route that we can plausibly see to having a more popular leader in Downing Street and thus perhaps a more popular party come the next general election and you are you know you're committing some sort of dereliction of duty by not giving us the best opportunity at fighting that strong.

13:09And we should talk about Ed Miliband, one of my favourite topics on this podcast. You love him. Well I like talking about him because politically he's really interesting and he really likes Andy Burnham, he really rates Andy Burnham and his allies say that Ed Miliband thinks that Andy Burnham should be Prime Minister ultimately, that he should succeed Keir Starmer that he could make a difference in the polls and that he comes obviously with a much more left-wing agenda. They could position him as the kingmaker for an Andy Burnham premiership and suggest that Ed Miliband would be chancellor in this scenario.

13:37And I can tell you that there are some people in government, when you talk to them about Andy Burnham's return today, who are absolutely livid with Starmer for blocking him. I will read you a quote from a senior government source that we had. Our party is dying and sick. Thank God the NEC blocked the one MP who polls as having unique green reform crossover appeal. So that was a senior government source saying that Andy should be allowed to come back. And I guess that is the point, that Starmer is obstinate quite clearly. He will not let him come back, but surely that case is going to be much stronger in the wake of these.

14:12And again, that test of nerve, can Starmer stand up to people and still say, absolutely not, I control the NEC, or will the composition of the NEC change and force his hand? And that's a long battle to come. Yeah, and I mean, how firmly do those cabinet ministers and people who would like to see him stand actually push that with Starmer? It's one thing being pushed about it on a television interview and saying that it would be your preference for them to stand. It's another actually going for prime minister and being like, I believe very strongly that we should give a path, make a path for Andy Byrne and back.

14:40But I think, I mean, to your point about Ed Miliband, it's very interesting. I had cabinet minister saying to me the other day that they suspected that, you know, Ed Miliband would be the most conflicted of all the members of cabinet regarding Keir Starmer's future. because, as you say, he is genuinely a friend of the Prime Minister. And also, despite serious, I mean, you know, not necessarily, but we've seen some policy, not necessarily misgivings, but we've definitely seen them not being as politically aligned as you might expect for some of those closest allies around the Cabinet. But that Ed Miliband has had the experience of being the leader of a Labour Party who would neither back him nor sack him.

15:12And that is a horrible purgatory to be in. And he will understand that. He will feel that intuitively in a way that very few people in the Labour Party will. And I think that will be playing on his mind significantly. Clearly, there's a prize at the end of the tunnel if he does help Andy Burnham get back. You've reported on that in detail this week. But I do think that personal question will be playing on his mind too. Right. We're going to head to the interval now. And when we come back from the interval, we're going to talk about the big winners of the night. We're going to talk about Nigel Farage.

15:40We're going to talk about the Greens. We're also obviously going to talk about the Tories. And then more broadly, we're going to talk about what is happening in Scotland and Wales and what that means for independence, effectively. So we'll be back with you shortly.

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17:35Welcome back to The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. Well, let's get with it. Let's talk about the man that Patrick Maguire is currently on a helicopter with, Nigel Farage. He is jubilant today. He says this is historic and the change is coming and I am the change. And he's not necessarily wrong, is he? There is something historic happening here. Yeah, I mean, it's still too early to get a full sense of exactly what the level of those reform gains are going to be. But it does look massively historic. He obviously had that big story that we've covered on this podcast, Steve, the five million pound gift from Christopher Harbourn that, you know, many people in Westminster have been thinking enormous amounts about in recent weeks.

18:17He had said to me previously that it was a Westminster story. And it does seem that it has proved in that respect at the moment to be something of a Westminster story. I think we'll need a bit more time to figure out if that is definitely the case. But I mean, just look at some of the gains. I mean, the flexibility of his appeal is so striking. I mean, in so many different regions across the country, I think, you know, for Labour, even though they didn't clinch some of those targets they necessarily wanted to in London, still massive gains in that kind of outer donut burrow that we've seen declare already.

18:50But in places like Essex, I mean, just unbelievable the level of support that they've managed to pick up there in what would previously be considered in previous years, massive Tory heart. And Essex, let's pause on Essex for a minute. Essex matters because this is where KME Bainock's seat is. It's where about, I think, five members of the Shadow Cabinet are. It is a traditional Tory heartland and that is all gone turquoise. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, just that, I think, will really, really be a massive cause of concern for a number of people in the Tory Shadow Cabinet. You will, of course, have a number of Labour members of the Shadow Cabinet over the course of the coming days.

19:26will be thinking about what the surge in reform means for them as well. Not just, I mean, there's been a big debate today that you've borne witness to as well, Steve, about whether or not Labour should be more worried about the Greens or reforms. And this point that Professor Sir John Curtis has been making that actually, of course, where we are seeing the Greens do better, that is actually more damaging for Labour than necessarily a surge in reform support. But that notwithstanding, it's still the case that a number of Cabinet Ministers will be set to lose their seats to reform come the election.

19:54So you're seeing both the Conservatives and Labour who are really worried about this. I would also say as well, I mean, speaking to some senior Lib Dems today, they're quite interesting on this. They feel like they did pretty well in Portsmouth, which we saw them triumph in. And that actually they felt that in Portsmouth, drawing attention to Nigel Farge's kind of links with President Trump, which, of course, he slightly distanced himself from in recent months, but that that in Portsmouth, a kind of proud naval city when Trump called aircraft carriers toys, British aircraft carriers toys, that that was something that they've exploited in their view to good effect.

20:24They did a big anti-Farage ad campaign. And they're also very focused on Farage now because they feel like increasingly, particularly in some of those areas around Sussex that we've spoken about before, they are going to have to fight reform too. So everyone is obsessed with Nigel Farage at the moment and for a very good reason. Yeah, very good reason. And look, for Kenny Beinock, it's really difficult. They can point to some successes. So they can point to the fact they won Westminster. But it is a very difficult sell. And I think the one thing she's got that she's going to be emphasising is, I have had a good campaign.

20:52I have not put a foot wrong. I've had some good moments. I've forced a load of U-turns from the government recently. And my polling is increasingly popular. It's on an upward trajectory. The party's polling is down. It's going to take time. So she is going to be urging her MPs to give her time to be patient. And I suspect they will. I'm not getting Tories freaking out today. They're not, you know, losing it because I think they've decided that she is the right leader and that, you know, their fortunes will turn. But it is very, very clear that, as you said, reform is scooping up huge numbers of Tory votes.

21:26Suffolk, Essex, swathes of Northern England where people did vote. As John Curtis put it, he said that what Farage has basically done is he's got the ban back together. And what he means by it, he didn't say that, but he said he has rebuilt the Boris Johnson coalition that wanted to get Brexit done. And there's a symmetry between the people that voted for that and the people that are voting for Farage today. And that is a big chunk of the electorate that have gone over to him. obviously Zia Yusuf, who is their home spokesman, he has said today, that's it, it's over, no more defections, no one can come back, right?

22:00And we'll see how long that, you know, lasts, that position. But they're two distinct entities now, and reform is pretty dominant. And it's an uphill struggle for the Tories, whatever way you look at it. There's a particularly aggressive style of messaging from reform, which is essentially that the Tories are no longer a national party, they are a regional party for affluent people in pockets of the southeast um and that's that's how they are arguing they're not actually representative of voters so it's it's going to get very ugly but the tories have a real fight on their hands to stay relevant and to try to recover and the only way back to government for them is through those voters that they've lost to reform and that is a an incredibly tall order i mean you know even saying that they're supported by pockets in the south is not even strictly true i mean we spoke about west sussex last week but also So Lib Dems already saying that they're going to triumph in East and West Surrey as well.

22:54It's no longer true that the Tories can rely on those areas either. So this is going to be a big question. I think it'd be very interesting to watch all the conversations around and questions around electoral PACs and confidence and supply agreements. Obviously, going into this election, there were questions about whether or not Nigel Farage had lost some support from his high in recent months, perhaps partly as a result of the Iran war, lids with Trump, etc. As a result, when you, as I did recently, ask him about, you know, could you possibly rely on Conservative support in the future? I think his words to me were, it's not top of my bucket list.

23:23Clearly, it's not something many people in Riffle be jumping at, but nor is it something that people are ruling out either. And I think both Kemi Beymnock and Nigel Farage will be thinking very hard about that going forward. And if indeed by the end of today and by the end of tomorrow, even we have the story really is that Nigel Farage has massively exceeded expectations, you know, 1 ,500 plus wins, then you can see him perhaps becoming more bullish on the question. I think we're not able to cooperate with them. We should talk briefly about the Greens. Now, dear listeners, you have a disadvantage because as we sit here, the London results have not been declared.

23:56They're coming around seven o 'clock tonight. But obviously, one way or another, Greens are going to make significant inroads into Labour's vote in London. How far, how many councils they turn, we don't know yet. Maybe one, it may be as many as four, but it's probably somewhere between those two figures. But either way, that is going to put the fear of God into a lot of Labour MPs because Labour, especially high command, is pretty London-centric. And so when they see the Greens on their doorstep, they are going to take the message from that, we need to go left, we need to tilt left and appeal to progressive voters.

24:29Yeah, I mean, if you think about what we know about the intervention we're expecting from Keir Starmer, you know, you've reported on Europe, I've reported that it's going to include an offer on young people. That, to me, sounds very much like a Keir Starmer that is concerned about the threat of the Green Party in this moment. And that is something that he's hearing from cabinet ministers. You know, we've spoken about David Lammy, the Deputy Prime Minister before. This is something that those around him are thinking very, very seriously about. And I think that will be one of the things that they judge him on next week.

24:56How convincing is he when he comes to addressing their concerns about finally having a very credible, in the eyes of many voters, threat on the left will be. So, I mean, let's just see. But equally, there are there have been some suggestions, perhaps, that the Greens have not been massively performing in line with some of their expectations. But even so, the evidence is that outside of London, they're still taking a lot of the wind out of Labour's sails as well. So all around a really negative development, I think, is the headline for the Labour Party. And look, the big question next week, does Keir Starmer have another gear?

25:27Can he go up a gear or is he going to be stuck, as Lord Hutton put it today, a former Labour cabinet minister, in first gear? And that's the question, because everything we're hearing about this research speech on Monday doesn't sound like Keir Starmer wants to rip up the manifesto or get rid of the red lines. So can he come out with a bold enough offer that is enough to win over voters? Or is it going to be more of the same? And if it is more of the same, that will probably hasten his demise, I would have thought. Yeah, I mean, one Downing Street insider said that it will be it will perhaps be about the direction and not the destination.

26:01i.e. can you really signal what your direction of travel is while being able to stop short of saying absolutely, cast iron, this is exactly what we're going to do. And I think that will be the key question is if he does go for that more directional model, so to speak, next week, are Labour MPs and Cabinet ministers going to be convinced that that represents a real sea change in how serious he's taking this? And then lastly, we should just talk about Scotland and Wales. I'm acutely aware we didn't do that on last week's podcast. And it is really important because there's a much bigger picture there, which is you've now got two political parties, the SNP and Plaid, that are both pro-independence that are leading those governments.

26:37And that will start to make more of a case for independence. It may take time, it may not, but that is a shift. Massively, massively. And I mean, the priority that they give that will be fascinating to see. Just how nervous Labour MPs are about that will also be fascinating to see. I mean, picking up, especially from Cabinet, a huge amount of sadness in the case of Scotland, where they feel that actually they've got a lot of good campaigners there, that it is bitterly disappointing how hard this campaign has been. And in their view, the SNP record is abysmal. And yet here they are on track for a fifth term.

27:07And that is something that's very hard for a number of these leading Labour lights to take. Likewise, Wales also has its own massively totemic value for the Labour Party, particularly, I think, Nigel Farage eyeing up those valley areas. I mean, he said to me he was very confident in those regions that La Fombe would be doing stunningly well. So we will see on that. I mean, it is historic that even when you've had before difficult Labour local election result, Wales has often been a shining beacon of hope for the party. And that is no longer true. And that is a very historic development. I think if you just stand back more broadly, just to finish on this note, it all looks incredibly fraught.

27:42It's a very difficult week ahead for Keir Starmer. He's going to have to, you know, change things. And it's very unpredictable, which is joyous news for Sunday journalists like you, Laura. I've got to go and catch up with Patrick in Chelmsford at Nigel Frager's victory party now. Enjoy. OK, well, thank you for listening. And we will obviously be back on Tuesday and we'll be able to tell you, indeed, where is Starmer and is he going to survive this? It looks like he probably will at the moment.

28:35We'll be right back. is your destination for the sleep you deserve. Don't miss the savings during the Memorial Day sale for your best night's sleep, only at Mattress Warehouse. Memorial Day means serious savings at Mattress Warehouse. Save up to$1 ,500 warehouse-wide. Tempur-Pedic and Sealy Adjustable Sets are now up to$500 off. Or get a King Purple mattress for the price of a queen. Plus, free next-day delivery and setup. And our exclusive lifetime price guarantee locks in your best price forever. Don't miss it. Shop top-brand mattresses, bedding, and sleep essentials at Mattress Warehouse, your destination for the sleep you deserve.

29:09Shop the Memorial Day mattress sales for your best night's sleep today, only at Mattress Warehouse.