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The State of It

14 Jul 2026 · 28m · 10 chapters

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Burnham's cabinet: Ed Miliband fails the smell test

In short

Andy Burnham’s incoming Labour leadership and cabinet formation, with a focus on whether Ed Miliband will be Chancellor, plus likely cabinet reshuffles and what Burnham will do once Prime Minister.

Guests

Stephen Swinford (political editor, The Times), Patrick McGuire (chief political commentator, The Times), Lara Spirit (deputy political editor, The Sunday Times).

Key claims

Burnham allies believe they have blocked Ed Miliband from becoming Chancellor, citing a “smell test” with City markets and worries about Miliband’s net zero policies. The episode says Miliband’s economic policy work influenced Burnham, but Burnham’s circle resents any claim to a guaranteed top post. It also predicts cabinet reshuffle knock-ons: Shabana Mahmood, Lou Haig, Lucy Powell, Angela Rayner, Miatta Fahnbulleh, and possible departures (e.g., Peter Kyle, Liz Kendall, Steve Reed). It flags internal policy clashes between Josh Simons and Miatta Fahnbulleh.

Notable examples

Miliband’s prior refusal to take Housing Secretary; Observer reporting on North Sea oil/gas; a “GoFundMe”-style whip round for Keir Starmer’s leaving carriage clock.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:36

Ed Miliband's Threat Level and Andy Burnham's Cabinet

Discussion on the perceived threat of Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor and its impact on Burnham's cabinet.

“We can reveal that close allies of Andy Burnham think they've succeeded in killing off the threat, as they see it, of Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor.”
2:45

The Smell Test: Ed Miliband's Viability

Exploration of why Ed Miliband may not be suitable for Chancellor according to political insiders.

“And Andy Burnham's brain is to a large degree a black box still.”
5:00

The Dynamics of Cabinet Appointments

Insight into the complexities of Andy Burnham's cabinet appointments and the rivalries at play.

“I mean, good time to break it to Ed Miliband.”
7:22

Potential Cabinet Members and Their Roles

Speculations on who will fill key cabinet positions and the implications of these appointments.

“It's been like prodding a hornet's nest.”
10:34

Foreign Secretary Candidates and Political Relationships

Discussion on potential candidates for Foreign Secretary and their relationships within the party.

“And look, we caveat all of this with predictions are often a mugs game and they can be wrong, but...”
14:00

The Foreign Secretary Dilemma

Discussion on the potential candidates for the Foreign Secretary position and their significance.

“There is obviously a big question here of who gets foreign secretary.”
18:10

Cabinet Infighting and Policy Clashes

Exploration of the internal conflicts within Andy Burnham's team regarding policy and strategy.

“But I think it is probably going to be an ongoing fissure and something we'll keep an eye on.”
22:45

Keir Starmer's Cabinet and Loyalty Issues

Analysis of the loyalty dynamics within Keir Starmer's cabinet and the implications for the future.

“But there's an interesting question as well, I don't want to curse the game.”
25:34

Andy Burnham's Plans for Power

Discussion on Andy Burnham's potential policies and priorities as he assumes power.

“We talk about what Andy Burnham is going to do with power and we should actually talk about what it's going to feel like next week.”
28:01

The Mega Budget and Tax Challenges Ahead

Explore the implications of a potential mega budget and the complexity of tax changes in the UK.

“more on that, and they are particularly mindful about those economic announcements coming early.”
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Transcript

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1:06Affordable. People around him have been fighting vociferously against Ed Miliband. They've been arguing that he would be, quote, a danger to the country. They think that they have stopped him becoming chancellor. Welcome to this week's edition of The State of It. I'm Stephen Swinford, the political editor of The Times. I'm Patrick McGuire, chief political commentator for The Times. I'm Lara Spirit, deputy political editor of The Sunday Times. We are going to be predominantly talking to you about Andy Burnham and we come to you with a scoop. We can reveal that close allies of Andy Burnham think they've succeeded in killing off the threat, as they see it, of Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor.

1:45So we're going to talk about that, what that means for the Andy Burnham project more broadly and for the Cabinet. But look, let's start with Andy Burnham and his Cabinet. He's coming. He's going to be unveiled on Friday at the Trade Unions Congress, the TUC. And that's it. He becomes Labour leader. And then on Monday, once Keir Starmer's got back from the World Cup final, if we are to be in it, he will become Prime Minister. And he has held back all his cabinet appointments and kept everyone, including all his ministers, in the dark. But we come to you with something of a scoop because people around him who have been fighting vociferously against Ed Miliband, they've been arguing that he would be, quote, a danger to the country.

2:22They are concerned about his net zero policies. They are really worried that he would kind of tinge the project. We become a target, effectively a lightning rod for criticism. But they think that they have stopped him becoming chancellor. And that's what we're hearing from senior people around Burnham. Now, it should be caveated that obviously it isn't confirmed yet. It won't be confirmed till the Monday he's in one way or another. And Andy Burnham's brain is to a large degree a black box still. But it does feel like they certainly have changed their tone and are sounding pretty triumphalist about it.

2:54You obviously then have to ask who would be the Chancellor if Ed Miliband wasn't. We reported recently on that meeting between Shabhan Mahmood, the current Home Secretary, and Andy Burnham, that very long anticipated meeting. I'm told that they did speak about the economy in that wide ranging meeting. I think it would be pretty unsurprising, even though we know that she really has said she wants to stay in the Home Office, that perhaps I think that's looking like it might be a bit more likely now. Patrick, if he doesn't go for Ed Miliband, what are you picking up on that? Why not? What is this campaign against Ed Miliband?

3:24Because it's been a really vociferous campaign against him. I think it's about practicality in the first instance, i.e. regardless of how rigorous a job Ed Miliband could and probably would have done in the first week of his chancellorship, soothing the markets, etc., etc., setting out a big program of fiscal probity, all of that stuff and his experience with the Treasury. I think ultimately, and if you speak to people in the city, they will say he just doesn't pass the smell test. Now, that's sort of dispiriting at a basic democratic level. You might say it's a tale as old as Labour government itself.

4:05If you go back to, you know, the Ramsey McDonagh's government at 29, they're having similar conversations about who really runs Britain. Is it all a banker's ramp, etc.? But that's where we are, right? There's an acknowledgement. And Jim O 'Neill has basically said this publicly. Lord O 'Neill, the sort of informal advisor to Andy Burnham, a former treasury minister, basically said, you know, actually, if you appoint Miliband, you know, it's not going to go well. And the other thing, there's a feeling among part of Burnham's circle that Ed Miliband represents, say, you might call it the London left, which is, you know, he's an MP for Doncaster, but he's from Dartmouth Park in North London.

4:40And there's a feeling that, you know, the party has been run by those people for slightly too long. There's a sort of cultural gap between people like Ed Miliband, Ami Asifan Buller and others. So that's the sort of broad, that's the broad case against Ed Miliband. And, but we'll see. The one thing to be conscious of as we talk about this is what happens if Andy Burnham says to Ed Miliband on Monday morning or Sunday evening or whenever it is, well, hopefully not on Sunday evening, we'll all be watching the World Cup final. I mean, good time to break it to Ed Miliband. Off time. Well, exactly.

5:15Well, no, no, I mean, he'll be watching the baseball or something. But you can see a world in which Andy Burnham says, Ed, you know, I want to make you foreign secretary. And Ed Miliband goes, well, I want to be chancellor. Right. This is basically what happened when Keir Starmer tried to make him housing secretary in September. Ed Miliband was just like, no, I'm not going to do that job. I'm the net zero secretary. And Ed Miliband is, as we've seen from the way this has happened, a wily political operator, very forceful in political argument. And that, you know, despite appearances, a bit of a political street fighter.

5:51So what happens if Ed Miliband really, really argues his case? How does Andy Burnham react? You know, I think that's going to be an interesting test. If Andy Burnham is preparing not to make Ed Miliband chancellor about how people react. Because there will be a part of Ed Miliband, I am sure, whose view is, if it wasn't for me, mate, you wouldn't be it. Because he was the first one. He was the first mover. He was the first to move against Starmer. And he's drawn up a lot of the economic policy that Burnham is using. And there is an argument that Burnham actually owes him quite a lot. It's worth saying that some people around Burnham find that argument really deeply irritating, though.

6:28In as much as they recognise that, obviously, it's right to say that Ed was among the first movers. I think they, many of them now think that there was just this great political logic behind the Burnham premiership and actually to kind of say that Ed Miliband has this great preordained right to the second most important office of state on account of the fact that he was one of the earlier people to recognize that is actually a step too far. And I think actually that's one of the things that they have found slightly more frustrating. And I think when you speak to people and allies of Ed Miliband, they find that reaction from the Burnham people very frustrating because they will say, well, actually, you know, we don't carry on as if we necessarily expect this.

7:05But as you say, we've done a lot of work in this space. We've actually helped a lot with the plan for government, etc. And they feel that they're sort of being painted as these like shamelessly ambitious people who think that Ed has this preordained right when actually they don't. So the politics of this is fairly ugly, I think, in some respects, but it does just speak to how important that decision is. The politics is really ugly. It's been like prodding a hornet's nest. Because what I found reporting on it is you get a briefing from someone and they will say awful things about Ed Miliband and why he shouldn't be Chancellor.

7:32And then you will get a counter briefing from Miliband's defenders who will often publicly actually, but say he is a radical guy. He's done great things in the pump for energy and net zero as they see it. And he should be Chancellor. And that has been a consistent thread because the stakes are very high. Well, and you can see Ed Miliband preempting those arguments or allies of Ed Miliband or sources close to Ed Miliband, friends of Ed Miliband. However you want to say it, there's been loads of briefings to the papers and well-sourced stories. There was another in the Observer at the weekend. I think we've all written a version of it at points about Ed Miliband and North Sea Oil and gas.

8:04Previewing Jackdawg. Yes, exactly. You know, we wrote that a couple of weeks ago. It was written slightly more hard in the papers over the weekend, slightly harder rather in the papers over the weekend. And so you can, we know what's going on here. It's almost like about preempting criticism that there is an awareness. Yeah, Ed Miliband and his allies know that that sort of criticism, you know, he's a net zero zealot. He, you know, wants to let Aberdeen go to the wall, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, he knows those conversations are happening, knows what the markets think of him. So there is clearly, you know, a pitch rolling exercise going on, showing that Nixon can go to China, as it were, on questions of oil and gas, on fiscal responsibility, on welfare.

8:44But will it be enough? You know, I think it comes back to that phrase he used earlier, the smell test for the city. And also, I think, from some people's perspective, the electorate. Can he be leading this government's domestic agenda? Can he be one of the big domestic faces of this government? And lots of people say, well, look, we admire him. We like him. Talented guy. Thank you very much. But no. And the reason we're starting this conversation with talking about the Chancellor is because building cabinets is like a kind of Jenga. You have to start with a piece and then start to build it up and hope it doesn't fall down.

9:15But other things flow from it. So if you know that Ed Miliband is unlikely to be Chancellor, according to Burnham's people, that raises questions about what happens to Shabana Mahmood. Does she then become the Chancellor? Also, we've heard you've picked up another scoop, which is around Foreign Secretary, Lara. A week or so ago, I wrote that West Street team was currently slated to be Foreign Secretary. That has since, I think, changed. I think that is now significantly less likely. And I think that speaks to the fact that clearly, as you say, it's complicated doing a reshuffle when you're trying to reshuffle some of the kind of, you know, non-great officers of state.

9:48It's extremely complicated trying to fill a government when for much of this period, they haven't been totally sure on who the chance it would be. And that does mean that these other pieces have been very complicated. So while West Street team was stated for Foreign Secretary as recently as a week or so ago, that now looks increasing. But I'm told he will get a big domestic department to run. Maybe health. So let's see. But we got a rough idea. I think Lou Haig is being touted for a couple of roles being talked about. Lara, you picked up bits about what she could be doing. It's been a kind of long running report that she'd be likely to be Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, for example.

10:23The other Chancellor. and I think that's looking pretty likely. And I mean, regardless of the specific title, I think obviously she will be one of the most important people in this government. Okay, well, what else are we picking up around potential Burnham cabinet appointments? And look, we caveat all of this with predictions are often a mugs game and they can be wrong, but... But let's do it anyway. Well, so obviously, right, I was having this conversation on the terrace last night with some ministers. they made the point that one it's got to be a profound it's got to be it's got to look like a big reshuffle even allowing for the fact that they were saying look who does Andy Burnham need to make space for he needs five vacancies because you want Lou Haig back in you want Lucy Powell back in right she probably by the way ends up as Deputy Prime Minister with the department she wants education I think that's fairly well known there's no reason to suggest she wouldn't get both of those big asses she's one of Andy's day ones as the kids would say who are the kids the 2024 and together PLP am I right so Lou Lucy God I wasn't the terrace last night hence my mental mental block I've got to the third person but I think this is also an ongoing topic of conversation among Labour MPs Angela Rayner is she a slam dunk appointee is she definitely going to get a job or can Andy Burnham get away with not appointing her we've got to assume she gets a job yeah but will it be as big as she wants right because there's some suggestions she wants to go back.

11:56She'd be quite keen to go back to housing. Miata Fambula is the other one, right? Where do you put Miata in the cabinet? She was an MHCLG minister. She was the devolution minister. Does she get that big job, right? And that's a key aspect of Andy Burnham's policy agenda, actually the key bit. And she is at the centre of Team Andy's policy operation. So where does Miata end up? Does Angela get a more junior job than she wants and conclude I'll stay on the back benches. So there's lots and lots of moving parts here. And then who gets sacked? I think we can safely conclude people like Peter Kyle's gone, Liz Kendall's gone, Steve Reid probably gone.

12:31Although you could see actually if, it depends whether you're looking at Steve Reid and saying that's a guy who gets devolution or that's a guy who was in the bunker with Storm at the end. And if you're looking at the latter guy, I think those sorts of people are done. But let's see. question marks around Bridget Philipson, Starmer loyalist to the end, but also you know, there are two people from the North East in Keir Starmer's cabinet, as in from North East in constituencies, Johnny Reynolds by the way, probably ends up as business secretary creates a vacancy for chief whip, where does Annalise Midgley go?

13:06Right, you see all these moving parts, Bridget Philipson, do you sack her? Oh, hang on, then the only MP from the North East of England is Sir Alan Campbell and he's in his early 70s. I was going to say about 100. It's like that always sunny in Philadelphia, you know, the mad board with all the kind of things flowing from it. Yeah, exactly. At this point in time, all things are possible. Yeah, I think also worth saying, Dan Jarvis, obviously the current Defence Secretary, there's been a question mark over whether he would continue. Like, I think Burnham was pretty frustrated and concerned about that£4.7 billion black hole.

13:36This was left, so just to give the listeners context, this was£4.7 billion in the Defence Investment Plan. That has to be found in the budget. In the budget 2026. Just out of nowhere. Yeah, which is not necessarily... And Burnham wasn't informed about it, was he? Well, there's an ongoing debate about the extent to which the Burnham camp were informed about that or not. But I mean, clearly, I don't think they necessarily think that they were fully informed about that. And there was some frustration about that entire process. I don't think it's impossible that Dan Jarvis continues at all, but I think it is less likely than it was before that happened.

14:04There is obviously a big question here of who gets foreign secretary. And we don't have the answer for that. But there is the Yvette Cooper question. Yes. And we don't at this stage know where she's going to land. Yeah. And I think, you know, she's wanted to stay as foreign secretary. You know, she'd written that piece, that paper from Chatham House with the values. She's also had conversations that she's spoken about. I spoke to her in Poland about this with Andy Burnham about his foreign policy. She's been reassuring people that he's completely committed to NATO, for example. He's completely committed to Ukraine.

14:33So in that respect, she's been a kind of valuable interlocutor for Andy Burnham and his foreign policy, which has been, you know, widely remarked has been kind of, I would say, a bit more thin than in other aspects of Andy Burnham's arsenal. So it'd be interesting to see where she ends up because I think, you know, she's obviously a very big player. It'd be very difficult not to give her a very big job. And given she's made it so clear she wants to stay in the Foreign Office, I think that would be a really difficult decision for Team Burnham to make. Doesn't she have a really good relationship with Rubio as well?

14:59She has a good relationship with Rubio. And actually, this is something that when you speak to diplomats, they will say it is actually very useful for the person that you have a handshake. And, you know, this is, I'm not spinning for a vet coop here. This is genuinely something that when you speak to diplomats, they say, It is weird to constantly have a changing foreign secretary in circumstances where that is a job where personal relationships actually do matter. As you say, she's got a good relationship with Rubio. Nobody questions that. But also she spent a lot of time meeting other world leaders and foreign secretaries as well.

15:27And that is also seen as being an important part of that. And, you know, she told Starmer to go. She's not seen as a Starmer loyalist. And since she's been very, very supportive of Andy Byrne publicly. So I think it would be difficult for them to not give her a very big job. I think there's a strong case for it. I think one of the arguments about joke Britain, if you like, is this seven prime ministers in 10 years thing and the inconsistency that creates on every level, particularly on the international stage. I mean, you're talking to a foreign secretary one minute, they've gone the next. There is an argument I think some people are making in cabinet for consistency.

16:01So we talked about the cabinet. One of the problems with this lack of information has been the vacuum is created. And into that vacuum has fed all the things that we get in Westminster, which is infighting, loads of infighting and kind of some quite dark and ugly politics. One of the particular flashes that we've seen is over who does policy. So there are two people that have been doing policy, particularly around Andy Burnham. they are Josh Simons and Miata and they've been doing lots of policy documents but we reported the weekend that actually they were they were been at odds with each other and one of the funny things is so we got these reports which are really good sources and we obviously went to all parties and we subsequently got very emollient quotes from both parties effectively praising each other going out their way Josh Simons is a great guy Miata is brilliant and they work really well together which is always the way but actually beneath it we heard there were certainly some clashes.

16:55Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because when you look at certain areas of Westminster that usually throw up the most bitter political feuds, it's rarely the policy sphere that you see these things play out. And yet in this particular instance, it's been, I mean, certainly policy people that I speak to are not usually, they don't usually use as strong language as they have with me in recent weeks, depending on which of these two camps they fall into. You know, on the Miata side, they would say, look, she was commissioned to write around a dozen policy papers working towards a September timetable, those are being fed to James Purnell.

17:27This was a very well-organised process. And then obviously, you know, the fact that this has been now so accelerated has meant that, you know, in part, Josh Simons has played an extremely valuable role. But they do have quite different ideas about policy. I mean, to take one example, there was somebody who did a proposal for the Burnham camp and had seen both of them and found that the reaction from the Miata camp and the Josh Simons camp was completely different on the same. One loved it and one hated it. Yeah. And so I think that just speaks to the fact that actually there is clearly some ambiguity about some of these policy areas.

18:02I don't think that was necessarily surprising or shocking, given that this has happened in quite a short space of time and these things will be figured out. You know, access talks are ongoing, et cetera, et cetera. But I think it is probably going to be an ongoing fissure and something we'll keep an eye on. We should also talk then about Keir Starmer and Keir Starmer loyalists. Patrick, you picked up something really interesting, which was in the way Lou Hay did a podcast. Other podcasts are available with Nick Robinson. And in that, she said that Burnham had been planning for power for a year.

18:32And she was kind of doing that to repudiate suggestions he wasn't prepared. But that went down very badly. The remaining Starmer loyalists are furious. There are quite a lot of them as well, right? Yeah. When Keir Starmer did his sort of teary goodbye in the Rose Garden to these people, there was number 10A at the side of the room who was surveying the room and I think they said to a colleague can you see how many MPs are here? There are I think the number was 40 or 60 or something, so there are 40 MPs here who've turned up you know, this is the sort of silent minority of the PLP they think they're screwed they're not going to get jobs under Andy's new regime they feel devastated they feel humiliated and they listen to who interviews like Lou Hay won, which she subsequently clarified and said, you know, and I mean, to be fair, literally everyone was thinking about a leadership transition for a year.

19:27I mean, this isn't news. We've been writing it, right? Yeah, exactly, exactly. I mean, it would have been, it's a sort of damning view. If she said, well, actually, no, this is, you know, Josh resigned. Josh just decided to resign. And then Andy thought, yeah, maybe I want to be prime minister. I mean, come off it. But anyway, these people listening to that sort of Rose Garden ultra character you know the Keir Starmer day ones. Keir Starmer's ride or dies right? Whatever you want to say. They're the people who are listening to that. MPs, cabinet ministers, people who know their time is coming to an end in quite an undignified way listening to that and just getting furious.

20:05And you can really see especially you know this problem will be writ large. There'll be loads of people with nothing to lose. There'll be cabinet ministers who are sacked and feel humiliated. There'll be junior ministers who feel that their career has been cut off in the prime of their youth because they have batted the wrong horse and they're not part of the in crowd. They'll feel like they're the subject of nasty retribution and they'll think, well, I've got nothing to lose. You know, I'm not going to join in this great jamboree. I'm not going to buy an Everton replica kit. I'm not going to go to Wigan anymore.

20:38Right. You know what I mean? I just, and these people will feel like they have nothing to lose. And they listen to the new regime and they see, they see evidence of that everywhere. So that was a, yeah, that was not a great moment. Yeah. Bad blood. And look, we should just move on lastly when we're thinking about, oh, you've actually got a great anecdote about Starmer. Can you give me a little Starmer? Sorry, this is outstanding. Go, Patrick, please. Well, I don't know what time this podcast is going out, but I am sure the Prime Minister is not listening to it because he never listens to me. So I can reveal that the Cabinet have been doing a whip round for the Prime Minister to get him a leaving present.

21:21They have bought him, and when somebody told me this, I thought, what year are we living in? They've bought him a carriage clock, which apparently the same clockmaker has did the new face of the Elizabeth Tower. So not a normal clock. It's a, you know, I'm sure a beautiful piece. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But that was like, a carriage clock was sort of like, It's old school, yeah. Yeah, it's like, I've worked in the bus depot for 50 years and I've finally got a little carriage clock. I don't get it. Anyway, but anyway, David Lammy organised this whip round. Very good of him. Briefly did it on sort of like, it wasn't sort of like GoFundMe.

21:55It was something like GoFundMe. Like he did like a public, inadvertently had like a public website up for it for a while. And this was eventually pointed out. And the cabinet were all like writing little, you know, donating and writing little comments saying, but like, you know, when a colleague leaves and you're like, oh mate, I really miss you. Lord Hermer apparently wrote a really, really long essay. Someone did say to me, Ed Miliband is like a sentence long. But yeah, so that'd be nice. Keir Starmer's final cabinet meeting. He'll get his present. He'll get a round of applause. Presumably Ed Miliband will be there with a pitchfork, making sure he actually leaves.

22:34Pretty Bruce, isn't it? So like you say, when you just leave with the carriage clock, obviously he is hoping to leave having seen the World Cup the night before and got the red eye back just in time, which is if that, you know. But there's an interesting question as well, I don't want to curse the game. Well, no, there's an interesting question as well. Right, so if you are Andy Burnham, what do you do on Sunday? Because I am sure if he wants to go, there'll be an invite. But who, you know, who are you going with? Right, do you fly with Prince William? Do you fly by yourself? Do you fly schedule?

23:04Everyone's got to be back. Do Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer end up on the same government plane on the way back? They can't. Andy Burnham cannot go, surely. I don't know. They only have one Prime Minister at these events. Well. Maybe they can sit next to each other. There was a great stat in one of our pieces today, which is that England have won 76 % of their games under Keir Starmer's premiership. Huge, huge figure. Well, essentially, we have only ever won the World Cup under Labour governments. So there you go. Okay, right. Let's not curse it too much. So look, we've dealt with some of the most senior cabinet positions and we've also talked about the bitter infighting that is gripping Abi Erna's team behind the scenes.

23:37The bigger picture is actually, what is Andy Burnham going to do with power? When he stands on the steps of Downing Street next week, what can we expect him to say? So when we come back from the interval, we're going to be talking about that. Is your kid's birthday coming up? Don't stress the prep. The Party Shop at Michael's is your one-stop shop for everything from bluey to rodeo. Transform your space into a birthday wonderland with dream-worthy tablescapes and decor starting at 99 cents. Plus, get free helium inflation on select balloon styles. Whether you're crafting a one-of-a-kind bash or grabbing the essentials, Michaels has everything to make their big day legendary.

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25:45So, I mean, it's the cost of living, stupid, right? everything is going to be focused on the cost of living. And he has this mantra of, which is actually a Keir Starmer mantra originally, putting more money in people's pockets. And he is going to come up with a series of what he hopes will be swift and tangible announcements feeding into the autumn budget on the cost of living. So the ones that we know about, we know that he is interested, obviously in free bus passes for young people. He wants to do something with energy bills, possibly knock VAT off energy bills, which would save people some money from their energy bills.

26:18there's an interesting conversation happening around student loans. He's very concerned about the iniquities of student loans and what that's doing to young people. We even heard rumours at the weekend that they could be looking at some kind of tax cut for lower earners. We're not sure what form that takes yet, but very clearly he knows that he cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of Keir Starmer. He cannot come into number 10 promising change and then within a few weeks promulgate misery, which is what Keir Starmer did, as we all remember, with stripping people of the winter fuel allowance. So he is going to be unbridled optimism from the steps of number 10.

26:54And from this will flow a series of consultations, which then feed, we think, into the autumn budget and possibly a series of announcements from that. I mean, we had some polling over the weekend from More in Common and UCL Policy Lab, which was really interesting, showing that actually voters are, A, less patient than they were under the beginning of Keir Starmer. So actually, even though there's this narrative around voters being impatient. Actually, when Keir Starmer came into government in 2024, more voters were likely to favour incremental and radical change. That's completely flipped now.

27:23That's not true. And then secondly, while voters are patient on some issues and give Burnham some time, they are particularly impatient about seeing action on costs of living. So they do want to see that very clearly. And actually, that's something when I speak to those around Burnham that they're very mindful of, particularly on timings of the budget. They think, for example, that Rachel Rees' decision, the current chancellor to wait last year was misguided, that actually that fed into longer speculation. So I think they are looking at trying to get that up. And I think I would point to the fact that, you know, Darren Jones was going up to make a field to the constituency when Andy Burnham was running that campaign to talk to Louise Haig about budget preparations to reassure her that those things were ongoing.

27:58I think they will be looking at a slightly shorter timeframe more on that, and they are particularly mindful about those economic announcements coming early. And there's this fascinating conversation about a mega budget. So they're possibly looking at taking the budget, which is, you know, one part of it, and next year's spending review, bringing that forward. And a spending review sets out the kind of path of spending over the next five years. But if you want to, for example, I don't know, build more council homes than in any period since the post-war, then you're going to need to reallocate the entire of the affordable housing budget, which is like 39 billion quid, directly into council housing, which is the kind of thing where you might bring forward a spending review.

28:33So you could get this mega fiscal event, which could also, I've mentioned tax cuts. Obviously, there are going to have to be tax rises. and they are looking at a whole series of things predominantly around, as they see it, taxes on wealth. And that is going to be a really difficult process because if you listen to Jim O 'Neill, who we mentioned earlier, who looks like he's going to be an economic advisor in number 10, he is cautioning very strongly against big tax rises on wealth, particularly capital gains tax, which he said, if you whack that up, if you bring it into line with income tax, you are deterring wealth creation, you are deterring entrepreneurs and the kind of people you want to attract.

29:11So a really difficult mega budget coming down the line. Yeah, indeed. And the other thing to keep an eye on in terms of the politics of this is taxes and fiscal decisions that are seen to benefit the regions, particularly the north, at the expense of London. I mean, that is, I think I've mentioned this on the podcast before, but there is a sort of faint but perceptible and growing rumble of discontent from Labour MPs in the South East. You know, some of them are now empowered to speak publicly. I think the MP for Gillingham has already come out and basically said Andy Burnham needs to, you know, not take a stereotypical view of constituencies like mine and sort of, you know, get real.

29:50He's made a point in all of his speeches of talking about the Southwest and that sort of thing and talking about, you know, London's housing market being overheated. But, you know, we're looking at things like a land value tax, anything that sort of is seen to hit the Southeast or indeed does hit the Southeast more than it hits everywhere else. There will be lots of Labour MPs, particularly those 2024 gains around London, sort of commuter country, who say, you know, oh God, this ain't the electoral coalition I thought we had. Okay, look, that brings this week's podcast to an end. We will be back later this week in the wake of the semifinals, hopefully with England en route to the finals.

30:29And more importantly, we'll be a step closer to Andy Burnham's premiership and finding out what he's actually going to do. Thank you very much as ever to our Ace Production team, Molly Guinness, you and Daughtry and Harry Kitson. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share and comment and we'll see you next week.

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From the publisher
  • Who will be in Andy Burnham's cabinet? It looks like Ed Miliband will not be chancellor after all. We have scoops for you about who's in line for the big jobs in the Westminster cabinet reshuffle.
  • Burnham needs to make room for allies like Louise Haigh and Lucy Powell, so who will be sacked on Monday when Burnham takes over as prime minister?
  • Westminster is like a hornet's nest of briefing and counter-briefing as Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and others wait to hear what next week will bring.
  • David Lammy has organised a whip-round for Keir Starmer's rather odd leaving present.
  • And what will Burnham do once he's in post? We look at his immediate priorities and the possibility of a mega fiscal event in the autumn.


Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times


Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness


Picture: Getty Images


Email us: [email protected]

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