Farage wins Clacton – but his £5m headache remains

0:28Summer's supposed to be the easy season. your time. The therapist you want takes your insurance on Grow. Grow accepts over 125 insurance plans. Sessions average$21 with insurance and some pay as little as$0 depending on their plan. Visit growtherapy.com slash ACAST today to get started. That's growtherapy.com slash ACAST. growtherapy.com slash ACAST. Availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plan. What Farage and his supporters think they have done here is they have effectively spiked the guns of the people that are trying to destroy him as they see it. Today, the voters in Clacton have stuck two fingers up to the entire political establishment.

1:19Welcome to this emergency edition of The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. I'm Stephen Swinford, the political editor of The Times. I'm Laura Spirit, the deputy political editor of The Sunday Times. And we're doing this edition because, unsurprisingly, Nigel Farage has won the Clacton by-election. He's won by a significant margin, 63 % of the vote. Count Binface, it should be noted, got 10 ,000 votes, which is equivalent to 27 % of the vote. So not insignificant. But Nigel Farage has won the victory in this by-election that he called himself by resigning as an MP.

1:53We haven't heard from Nigel Farage at all today, and we're not expecting to. one of the reasons why and this is what we just wanted to take listeners inside as a kind of just to start things off is because he was partying last night there was a really strange event called Farage Fest so Aaron Banks a big friend of Nigel Farage's and a donor seems to have paid a lot of money to hire out an airfield close to Clacton the party started at 11 p.m and it was a kind of Glasto Festival vibes thing. There were three open fires. There was a giant poster of Nigel Farage's face as people arrived, a kind of 40-foot poster saying, welcome to Clacton.

2:35There was a disco. There was a live band. There was a giant Ferris wheel. And so this was a proper party that they organised for the most senior people in reform, but also they invited loads of supportive people from the constituency. So it was billed as a kind of thank you to all of those people. And in the middle of it, Nigel Farage, before the result was announced, stood up and gave a speech. And this has been his only media that he's done in the wake of the by-election. So he said what we'd expect him to say, this is sticking two fingers up to the establishment. But he also said something really significant.

3:10He conceded for the first time that he possibly should have registered the donation from Christopher Harbourn, a British Thai cryptocurrency billionaire. And this, just to take listeners back, is what actually, where this all started. So the Guardian revealed there was this undisclosed£5 million gift, as Nigel Farage called it, shortly before he became an MP. The Standards Commissioner is investigating that. He resigned as an MP, suspending that investigation. And that investigation has now started again. So the fact that with that starting again, Farage appears to be suggesting that maybe He should have declared that.

3:45He insists that he didn't need to. He insists that he was right not to do so. But it says that maybe I should have filled in a piece of paper. I don't think I should put there. But that's the first time we've heard this because this is the start of a long process now. It's the start of a kind of very long attritional war involving the Standards Committee. So the Standards Commissioner is investigating him. This could go on for months. And then the committee looks at him and ultimately it could take us back to where we were yesterday with another by-election in Clacton. So I guess the reason I wanted to open with that is because this is not going to go away, this whole standards issue.

4:21We think it could go on until the Easter of next year. And every day that Nigel Farage is talking about questions over his finances, he is not talking about the things that have made him so successful, talking about migration, talking about crime. That's where reform's got its lead in the poll. So that is my starter for 10. I will take a breath, Lara, and allow you to speak as I've taken reasons inside the Farage Fest. Yeah, I mean, it's very interesting what you're saying. I guess on the one hand, people around Farage always say that he's at his most comfortable when he's campaigning, when he's meeting voters, when he's on the doorstep, that he liked the look of him when he's in Clacton, you know, the kind of classic pictures of him, the classic footage of him being feted by, you know, adoring constituents.

5:04Of course, as we know from the results, there are, you know, quite a fair number who aren't adoring constituents. But clearly this is a vindication of his popularity above others in Clacton. So I think that's one thing. But then on the other hand, there's this question of, is one thing to be campaigning in normal circumstances? Is another thing to be campaigning when you have these standards questions hanging over your head? And if you have to rerun this campaign again, I don't know whether you think voters would be quite tired of it doing it a second time, how he articulates these messages. It does feel like he is more confident.

5:33And something we're told is that he's more confident now than he was in perhaps in recent months when he faces journalists. So we have had a bit of a hiatus from him. That now seems to have come to something of an end. Although, as you say, Steve, it's not like we've been seeing him take number of questions today. That hasn't been the case. But by all accounts, they seem happy with the result. And I suppose the question is, is he going to be capable of having significant press conferences over the coming months in circumstances where there'll be ongoing questions about this probe, as there will be on other issues?

6:04will he feel comfortable asking them it looks or at least we're told that he is more comfortable in recent days coming back on those questions that he's more candid when he does so but i think you're right to say that it does mean it's a distraction from talking about for example boats or the high street or any a number of issues that as you say has been um core to why farage has been able to build up such a popular support base if we look at this from the point of view of farage's backers they say that this has been a successful by-election campaign and they have two metrics for that. So first of all, the key metric for them was that he increased his share of the vote on the general election.

6:36But also, the turnout was kind of in line slightly below where it was the general election at 44%, but a good turnout for an election that all of the rival political parties had said was a farce. And so Sir John Curtis, the veteran pollster, he says that actually proves to a degree what Farage was saying or reformed was saying that the voters of Clacton didn't appear to see this as a farce. They went out and voted either for or against him. So there is then the broader political picture, which is the Standards Committee investigation. And ultimately, that investigation can end in a by-election.

7:12And what Farage and his supporters think they have done here is they have effectively spiked the guns of the people that are trying to destroy him as they see it. But they said, you know, come on and I'll go if you think you're hard enough. If you do the worst you can do, which is, let's say, suspend us for 90 days as Boris Johnson was once suspended for, whatever it is, right? There will be a by-election and we will win that by-election. And this is the proof point. So they think this kind of makes him untouchable on this. And when you talk to them about it, they say it's a settled issue. But, Lara, I just want to come back to what you said earlier, was bang on.

7:48Farage's supporters want him to be the Farage that they've seen during this by-election campaign. the Farage of old, kind of laughing stuff off, smiling, kind of confident, etc. We have seen a very different Farage to that. He's been very angry about the scrutiny into the finances. He's been very angry about the... There's some stuff over his security as well. So there is a... You know, he has been a much more frustrated figure in recent months. And they want him to get back on the front foot. So the question is, can reform do that? They are supposed to be planning a load of stuff in coming weeks.

8:20we are expecting a kind of you know valley of uh of kind of uh you know press conferences again like more like we have in normal summer times and they're hoping migration will go up the agenda but the challenge now is for reform to do two things broadly it needs to regain that lead in the polls because labor has recently edged ahead of it and it needs to kind of put daylight between itself and the tories again because reform success does rely on destroying the tories there's not any blames about that. And the Tories, they have shown some signs of recovery in the polls. So that is the task ahead of him now against the backdrop of this standards investigation.

8:58Yeah. And I think you're right that to talk about this standards investigation at length over the coming months is going to be harder for them. And as John Curtis has argued, it is clear that there's been a dip in support in recent months. When you speak to people in reform, that's not necessarily something that they accept. And actually, when you talk to them about the so-called burn and bounce, they think it's a lot more modest than has been made out, particularly given the kind of heady promises that we had from some of those vernon backers in advance of him taking over so i think there are some causes for optimism for them and particularly when it comes to the autumn there'll be some real opportunities for reform on immigration to talk about it some kind of windows of opportunity for them they also have party conference in september at which you know we're told we can expect some big announcements so they'll be really looking to seize the agenda at that moment as well but of course the question is just is he going to be able to escape answering these questions basically incessantly?

9:49And in doing so, is he going to be able to recapture that earlier sense of ease and relaxation that he had with the media in particular as well? It's not just that when he's walking down the street and talking to Claxton residents, or as I've seen him do, you know, West Sussex when I spent the day with him, you know, an astonishing level of ease, familiarity, warmth, conviviality that he shared with those constituents. I mean, with those voters, I mean, it was extremely striking. But if the Farage that we're seeing is the one that bristles at questions about his personal finances, then that will be the kind of farage that is also projected onto the public in many respects.

10:23So I think there are questions and challenges that he has in this particular space as well. And also, they want to focus in a big way on calling for an early general election. But in doing so, that's also a risk for them in circumstances where they haven't recovered from what we've seen in recent months. Like you say, if you look at the polls at the moment, the Tories have made modest recoveries. that they feel like they're going in the right direction. They also, I think, would like some time to build on that before they start an election. But at the moment, the right is definitely split to a degree that I don't know if they necessarily would think this is the strongest footing that we could go into an election with at this very moment.

10:56I think one of the... I totally agree with that. If you look at the opportunities for reform, and indeed other politicians on the right coming ahead, Andy Burnham has had a pretty smooth start to his premiership. There's been evidence of some kind of bounce in the polls that we've seen, but that is going to change. That is going to change quite significantly. The stories this week about the early release of thousands of prisoners, which begins in the autumn, is a huge problem for them. And it's coming down the tracks. We've had a massive row, which was entirely avoidable, over whether PC Harper's killers should be subject to early release or not.

11:35Burnham is now insistent that they shouldn't. We don't know how they're going to resolve that. but either way you're coming down the tracks of October lots of people will be released early you've got the asylum housing issue on the horizon now let's not forget lots of Labour's are actually Labour's vote is much more middle class than it thinks so the graduates a lot of people live in quite affluent areas and Burnham's official policy now is to move asylum seekers into those areas as well so that could become an issue for him as you start to do that you build these big MOD camps as well, full of asylum seekers as well.

12:06That is so asylum will become a central issue again. All of these are prime territory for reform and Nigel Farage. And then on top of that, you've got the budget coming. And that's a difficult budget. Summer's supposed to be the easy season. So why are so many people quietly Googling a therapist between summer Fridays? Because more daylight doesn't fix the hard stuff. Sometimes it just turns the volume up. Grow does therapy differently. Grow connects you with thousands of high-quality licensed therapists across the U.S., offering both virtual and in-person sessions, nights and weekends. There are no subscriptions, no long-term commitments.

12:47You just pay per session. Grow helps you find therapy on your time. The therapist you want takes your insurance on Grow. Grow accepts over 125 insurance plans. Sessions average$21 with insurance and some pay as little as$0 depending on their plan. Visit growtherapy.com slash ACAST today to get started. That's growtherapy.com slash ACAST. growtherapy.com slash ACAST. Availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plan. And I think if you talk to people in reform, they are thinking almost entirely about conference now. That is where all of their bandwidth is. They see this conference coming, which is the first of the three conferences by some margin, as a big moment.

13:36And they've got, who have they got, that French guy, Jordan Bardella. Yeah. Is that how I pronounce his name? Jordan Bardella or Bardella, yeah. Yeah, but he is speaking. So the guy that may end up being the French president one day is speaking at their conference. And they see that as a big coup. And that's obviously a moment in which they'll be talking about potential cooperation with France in stopping the boats. So look, I think the key for them now is to try to change the conversation back to the areas where they are strongest. When you look at the polling, there's no doubt about that. I think there could be helped in that because there's some big issues and difficult issues for Andy Burnham and that honeymoon is going to come to quite a abrupt end.

14:16Yeah, yeah. And I mean, it has been a bit of a breezing summer for them. Usually summer is a really strong period for reform. It's a period in which, as we've spoken about before, boat crossings tend to rise. Ministers go on holiday. There are plenty of opportunities for reform to have really significant interventions where they're at the top of the news. And on some days they have been able to do that and to kind of recapture that old spirit. But so far it has been a more difficult summer than I think Nigel Farge has experienced before, the result in Claghton notwithstanding. And so going into the autumn, I think they will be feeling, you know, really bullish about trying to make the most of those difficulties that you've just explained.

14:51Yeah. And then we just talk a bit about Burnham and what his plans are. So in number 10, just over there, they're thinking about three things. They are thinking about conference. So they need this conference to kind of galvanise the troops to show they're on the new leadership. And hopefully they're hoping that will be a pretty good tribal occasion. Right. So it's event number one. Event number two is that budget. And they want the opposite for the budget. They want this to be a modest budget, not a big tax-raising budget. They don't want lots of headlines about capital gains. We'll see where they get there.

15:20There are suggestions that the finances may be in a slightly better state than people think. But they want this to be a streamlined budget, which actually focuses almost entirely on devolution. That's the message we're getting. So you end up with that. And then afterwards, you've got this thing, which is probably towards the end of the year. He wants to set out his 10-year plan. So this is the vision bit. This is the big bit that Keir Starmer struggled with so much of the kind of country he wants to build. So they are hoping that those three events, conference, budget, 10-year plan, give them the platform to set out a positive vision for the country and keep the momentum.

15:53Because that's the key for Burnham now. He needs to keep momentum going and not have, I mean, if you look at what happened on this early release stuff, it has been difficult for them. The messaging has been very difficult. They said one thing. They came up with one solution. there were clear issues of it as we said earlier this week there's a lot of bad blood over it so all of that I think reform will be waiting for them to make mistakes over yeah definitely and I think although those three events are so major for them and particularly in the case of the budget will be extremely defining events for those first six months of Andy Burnham's premiership you do have these other events so as you say early release is just going to continue into the autumn you have threats of industrial action from probation officers I think the in the kind of relevance of probation officers in this whole early release puzzle is really understated, to be honest.

16:39I mean, so much of the early release scheme and crucially, I think we should stop calling it an early release scheme. It is the new regime. It is the sentencing act, but it's not a kind of stopgap measure. This is the new way in which people will be released from prisons. And the massive burden that's been placed on these probation officers who have voted in favour of industrial action, who will be extremely disruptive come the autumn if their demands aren't met should not be underestimated. So I think that would be a massive thing. You've got other big questions around what they're going to do on water regulation, for example, how they're going to deal with the water companies that they've derided for a long time.

17:13Of course, we understand they want to put Thames Water into special administration regime, but these things are really complicated. And I think they'll want to make moves on those kinds of issues soon as well. So I think those are also really big problems. We've mentioned the immigration reforms that are coming down the track you know there's that letter of 80 Labour MPs to Andy Burnham basically opposing those from the outset so you will have a really significant mobilised group of MPs despite Siobhan Amun's best efforts to engage with the parliamentary Labour party over the coming months who want to see really significant changes there and whether or not they'll get there I think TBC but that will be a really big thing to watch as well so there are lots of these issues that are coming down the tracks that will be relevant for reform that Burnham will need to be really careful about getting right and so far this summer they have felt really confident with how they've how it's gone because they have been able to make a number of you know discrete interventions on specific issues uh where burnham is in a specific place you know giving an interview and largely it's gone pretty well at pieces he's continued to make you know buzzy social media content that they're also very happy with his personal favorability ratings are uh you know they would say very strong he very strong as well so they feel that there's been calls for optimism this summer but frankly MPs not being around here I mean Steve and I are sat in the Sunday Times room in the Palace of Westminster and this whole entire estate is basically completely empty right now I mean it's really hard to overestimate just how significant the physical dispersal of this estate actually is to the workings of Parliament at the moment these Labour MPs haven't reconvened in any meaningful sense whatsoever so to say that party discipline has been a masterclass so far is obviously very premature we're just going to have to wait and see how it comes to the autumn and given the fact that there are all these things we've just mentioned, I think it's going to be very hard for them.

18:55Lastly, I just wanted to mention, we had a listener get in touch called Mick, and he wasn't very happy with the podcast we did earlier this week. He felt that we were not clear enough, I think, he'd probably use stronger language about the problems with early release. So look, Mick, if you are listening, you may not be, but you may well be listening again. Look, there is no doubt this early release story is going to be incredibly damaging for the government. I cannot underestimate it. It's why the Tories went early with their election. It was a massive issue for Keir Starmer that he failed to get to grips with over time.

19:27It is now on Andy Burnham's and it's coming. Right. And it is going to be really grim. It is going to be thousands of very, very serious offenders of killers and other people being released. You have 50 police forces joining together and saying this is effectively a risk to public safety and could erode public trust in the justice system. You are, as you say, going to have probation officers saying this is really bad. And it only takes one of those people to go out and commit a murder or commit a sexual offence or whatever it may be. And it is a massive nationwide story. So this issue has, for I think the past three or four years now, absolutely terrified politicians of all colours.

20:13And it will define Andy Burnham. And if he can't find a way through this, if you get the expectations wrong and things go badly wrong with the product, then that is on his watch. So just to be very clear, it is a huge political challenge. and how Andy Burnham navigates that is going to be critical to his premiership. So we bring this week's episode, The State of It, to a close and we'll be back again next week. So look, thank you for listening. We really appreciate it. Laura, would you like to do the Big Red Barton? Yes. Thank you so much to Ewan Daughtry and Harry Kitson as well.