


The episode of State of It focuses on two UK political stories. First, it discusses Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s “early release scheme” for prisoners and his first major test: whether he can block the early release of the killers of PC Andrew Harper. The hosts argue Burnham’s transparent, public “public conscience test” approach is colliding with the reality that officials in the Ministry of Justice say exemptions are legally and operationally difficult, potentially requiring exemptions for all manslaughter cases. Key claims include that Burnham has personally staked credibility, asked Justice Secretary Alex Norris to find a solution, and may be forced to accept limits.
carve-outs for rapists/child sex offenders, Harper’s Law timing, and prison-capacity workarounds.
Second, it covers the Clacton collecting by-election: Nigel Farage’s expected win, Reform’s strategy, and the £5 million undeclared gift investigation risk.
Stephen Swinford, Patrick Maguire, Laura Spirit.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes.
Discussion on Andy Burnham's stance against the early release of PC Harper's killers.
“I'm ready to make a splash with clearer skin thanks to SkyRizzy, Rizinkizumab RZA.”
Discussion on Andy Burnham's stance against the early release of PC Harper's killers.
“where Andy Burnham is effectively taking a stand in the first major test of his will as Prime Minister.”
Exploration of legal challenges in securing exemptions for certain offenders.
“I mean the big question here Laura is to how you were ahead of this on Sunday you wrote a piece about one thing they were looking at.”
Analysis of the political ramifications and public perception of Burnham's choices.
“You had Andy Burnham say, I wish I'd gone further, but essentially I couldn't do that.”
Discussion of the institutional difficulties and public reactions to Burnham's decisions.
“believe that there can't be a car back if he carves out two or he carves out a few more offensive Will they believe that he can't do it for more?”
Speculation on future challenges Burnham may face and the budget process implications.
“because they need to free up places now.”
Explore the political difficulties faced by the Prime Minister as he navigates criticisms and budget pressures.
“We've not actually seen this prime minister deal with a situation where he is forced by events to take a course of action he didn't like or that he can't put a positive spin on.”
Analyze the impact of Nigel Farage's campaign strategies and the upcoming by-election in Clacton.
“We want to talk to you about Nigel Farage.”
Explore how Reform's strategy may evolve and impact British politics.
“And the national polls tell a slightly different story about how people have reacted to Farage since that.”
Listen to the names of all candidates competing in the upcoming election.
“OK, so we're now going to read out, as is a legal requirement, the names of all the candidates competing.”

Get the gist, explore an idea or ask about something said.
On The State of It, what are the key points of this episode?
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.
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1:03Welcome to the State of It, the political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. I'm Stephen Swinford, the political editor of The Times. I'm Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator for The Times. I'm Laura Spirit, deputy political editor of The Sunday Times. This week, we are going to talk about the early release scheme where Andy Burnham is effectively taking a stand in the first major test of his will as Prime Minister. He wants to block the release of the killers of PC Andrew Harper and he's going to do everything he can despite officials telling him you can't do it. He says I'm doing it.
1:34So this will be a major test and then we're going to talk about the collecting by-election which is coming on Thursday. We have obviously the result on Friday which Farage is going to use as a moment to kind of frame his people versus the establishment narrative. But look, let's start with the early release scheme and where we are on that, because it has been reporting on it. Just I've been reporting on it for two days now. Totally chaotic. We've got departments that are totally at odds with each other. We've got positions from Downing Street that are very publicly shifted and changed. We've ended up in a position where Andy Burnham has decided to draw a line and say they will not be released effectively.
2:10These killers of PC Andrew Harper, awful, grim crime, will not be released early. And that is the position he's taken now, and he's taken that publicly. Yeah, indeed, and he's staked his personal credibility on that issue. I mean, I wrote in The Times on Friday that I think it is the big first test case for Burnhamism. And what do I mean by that? It is the first major collision of style and substance. And we're about to see, in the words of a former aide, Keir Starmer, who I was speaking to last week, whether the vibes can trump the reality. Now, what do we mean by that? Well, Andy Burnham has made a virtue of trying to have a transparent conversation with the public and showing his working in the hope that he might be given credit, even if the answer is something that the public don't like.
2:59So the premise here has been to say, I share your moral outrage. It is ridiculous and outrageous that these people should be released. I'm going to try and do everything I can to stop them. And at the end of last week, the position was, I tried, but it ain't going to work for these reasons. But you can see I care. It's a demonstrative, as I said, transparent sort of style, trying to lead the public through it. But when the subject matter is so heinous and so outrageous and so unpopular, when we're talking about, as another government source said to me, literal criminals, are people still willing to swallow that?
3:33That is the question. And it is still a little bit too early to tell but but that is very much the strategy here you know that collision of style and substance which will win out and by the way the fact that Andy Burnham has come back now and said PC Harper's killers definitely will not get out suggests that he is aware that the substance here may well be too toxic to try and win too much credit with the style. I mean the big question here Laura is to how you were ahead of this on Sunday you wrote a piece about one thing they were looking at. But it's really difficult actually to secure this carve out, isn't it?
4:07Well, there's loads of different things that various people have suggested in recent days. When you speak to people inside the Ministry of Justice, I think they are pretty sceptical about the idea that any of this can work. There was this big question. I think the one that was kind of guiding our thinking towards the end of last week was, is it possible to carve out an exemption that is anything other than everyone that has been convicted of manslaughter cases? And there's a separate part of this, which is, you know, a lot of people saying, well, why can't you just do it for a manslaughter case if you're convicted of killing an emergency worker?
4:37Well, actually, Harper's Law was passed after this case. So, I mean, he wasn't even, these killers weren't even convicted of that. They were convicted of manslaughter offences. So it is really, really hard. I mean, Stuart Blake suggesting to me that you have different degrees of culpability when you're sentenced to manslaughter. Could you just have the kind of top two tiers of that? Actually, it's very hard because not everybody is given a culpability sentence. So actually, I don't think the Ministry of Justice think that that's possible. And I think this just speaks to the wider problem that Burnham has had, which is, on the one hand, you'll speak to people close to Burnham, one of them saying to me, you know, Andy has a really strong public conscience test.
5:09Like, he is keenly aware and prides himself on having his finger on the pulse of the nation. And reading the papers last week, even just with a cursory glance, you would have been aware of what the broad consensus on this issue was, which was a general sense of outrage around the fact that these two killers were set to be released. And they were also saying, you know, he is reviewing advice from the Ministry of Justice on this particular topic. And as soon as I heard that, I thought, he just won't go through with this. Like, there's just no way that he will allow these killers to be released because it just does not chime with what we've seen with him so far.
5:38It's just someone who really prides himself on getting public opinion right and being on the right side of it. On the other hand, you're speaking to officials who are basically pointing out every single thing that they think would be impossible in making further exemptions of the scheme. and making it quite clear that actually there has been, as we saw at the beginning of last week, with that opinion piece that Andy Burnham wrote in The Telegraph, already lines drawn in the sand about where the government would land on this. You had Andy Burnham say, I wish I'd gone further, but essentially I couldn't do that.
6:05I've stretched the scheme to the very limits. This is basically where we are. And we know that the Ministry of Justice was warning that without the scheme, you'd be running out of spaces by November. That is really soon. They've already pushed this to October from September. So it really is extremely difficult. And although it's unsurprising to have seen what we've seen from Annie Burnham this morning, it is still very, very hard to work out exactly how they're going to make this work. I mean, it has been bewildering to report on it, as moves a lot. So if I just rewind a little bit to 10 days ago.
6:31So 10 days ago, it was the weekend and Burnham was about to go on holiday. But he was presented with the invidious choices of what to do about early release. And we're told that he was presented with three things. The first was you could block the early release of all people who are serving jail sentences of 10 years. you could block the early release of all people serving jail sentences of seven years and that would he was told have stopped the release of p.c harper's killers so that was options on the table he didn't want to do that and the reason he didn't want to do that he wanted to take the third option which was when you look at types of offenders he wanted to stand up and say you know there is no right answer on this by the way but i have stopped rapists child sex abusers and grooming gang offenders from being released that's the choice he made and it was a difficult choice and look officials made clear to Andy Burnham that if he proceeded with this plan it would result in the in the release of PC Harper's killers and then we got the telegraph piece where he wrote and was very clear I pushed this limits and I can't go further and then the kind of the coverage kept coming and he was on holiday at the time and what we're told is he was he asked for daily updates and he was very exercised about the PC Harper issue and it kept coming back to it again and again and that he just decided that he wanted to push the system harder.
7:45He's come back from holiday and he's ended up kind of going for it. But it has been yesterday in the morning. We had a Downing Street lobby briefing where we all troop into lobby and the Prime Minister's official spokesman gives us briefings. And they essentially told us that they couldn't do a carve-out for these two individuals. They said it wasn't possible because you do a carve-out for these killers, then you have to do it for all of the killers, for all of those on manslaughter. And therefore, suddenly you've got hundreds more people staying in jail, which obviously would be popular with voters, but the whole point is the prison system is on the brink of collapse, so you need to relieve pressure.
8:18So they said that isn't a possibility. And then by the end of the day, when we were looking at writing a story on it, we discovered that actually he decided, you know what, I'm going for this. I do not think this is right. And we splashed this morning a story saying very publicly, I have told Alex Norris, my Justice Secretary, to find a solution to this. And that's what he's got to do now. Yeah, exactly. and it's interesting you come back to Burnham's own preoccupation with the issue right and the public conscience test you mentioned Laura something he kept saying to officials last week I'm told is well the week before before he went on his holiday was I don't think the public are going to believe that I don't think the public are going to thank me for that the problem is the policy issue is unbelievable and it is thankless um in that are the public going to believe that there can't be a car back if he carves out two or he carves out a few more offensive Will they believe that he can't do it for more?
9:12Will they thank him for drawing the line anywhere? Those are the questions on a policy issue of this nature. And what you hear from his predecessors in cabinet in number 10 is, you know, there's a reason Keir Starmer took the political pain on this, because there was no alternative. And Keir Starmer was not the kind of person who would do anything other than defer to expert advice, official advice on most issues and say, OK, well, there is no alternative. And we're about to see, and, you know, people who were dealing with this before are quite watching this with a degree of schadenfreude because they think, well, we know exactly where you're going to end up.
9:55It's inevitable. And that's what Andy Burnham is trying to prove wrong. The other thing worth noting is that he did know this was going to be a problem before he entered Downing Street. So we did a front page saying sex offenders, you know, will be, he's looking at exempting them from this, which he in the end did. But they did not see the PC Harper case coming, obviously, because, I mean, you wouldn't necessarily have expected them to see that specific case coming, perhaps. But they did know that one of the first tests he would face was, are you going to allow rapists and child sex offenders to be released early?
10:26That's going to be a terrible look. So they did have this. They were genuinely quite concerned and angry when they realised how bad the problem was. But I have to say, when I wrote that initial story, there were a number of people in government under the Starmer government who were saying, that's just not going to be possible, even for the exemptions of child sex offenders and rapists. Like, that does not work within the bounds of this early release scheme. They are going to have a massive headache with making this work. There were some pretty mad options on resolving this as well, that they were considered impractical.
10:52One of them involved turning a former holiday camp into a prison. but there was concern that they couldn't get that done in time and it would cost a lot of money. The other was converting MOD housing into prisons. If this sounds vaguely familiar, it's because we've had these same discussions about asylum seekers and where to house them. But that is a sign of the kind of more radical, fringy options that were being considered and were just dismissed out of hand because they need to free up places now. Yeah, and I mean, Andy Burnham this morning talking about looking at freeing up some of those women's prison places but I think, you know, Steve, we've spoken about this.
11:23I think there was only one women's prison, Bronzefield, if I'm correct, in which actually you have the capacity to hold these kinds of male offenders. It's not necessarily seen as a massively fantastic solution for this in particular, even though it's been a good opportunity, I think, for campaigners to point out why a number of the women in these women prisons shouldn't necessarily be there and why there is a broader problem with that estate. It's not in itself a silver bullet to solving this. And there are no silver bullets in this. I think what they are kind of realising and thinking about is actually we just need to be in a place where by the point at which these killers are released, we do have enough free space to be able to make a kind of broader set of exemptions in which this is possible within the realm of the law.
12:00That's where I suspect they'll end up. There are no easy choices. So let's say there is a world in which he succeeds in securing a carve out to prevent the release. Someone else was saying to me yesterday, well, there is a real issue with this because it creates a hierarchy of victims. What we are saying is that somebody who is a police officer who has been killed, is, you know, their offenders should be treated more harshly than someone else whose, let's say, child was killed under a manslaughter offence. Or you end up in this kind of moral quagmire. And I think Andy Burnham is feeling his way through it, but there are wider consequences and a wider debate to become.
12:36It is not straightforward, this. And they know that when you speak to people around Burnham. They'll say privately, look, we find a way to block the release of these two killers. there will be other cases, other causes that people become passionate about as soon as we do that. And so I think, and as soon as you do that for one, it then becomes difficult to do that for others. I mean, domestic abuse is a big one. You've got Jess Phillips, former safeguarding minister, openly saying that they should be exempted from this as well. I'm sure in circumstances where they outline how they're able to exempt PC Harper's killers from this, the merits of that notwithstanding, but you would then immediately have a huge amount of pressure from domestic abuse victims and that whole caseload to say, well, sorry, but if you did that for this, why can't you also do that for these cases as well?
13:18As I was saying, it's a test of whether Andy Burnham can govern as Andy Burnham because or whether he's about to discover there's no such thing as the Mayor of Britain, right? In that what was he able to do as Mayor of Manchester? When Keir Starmer was looking at two bad options or two options that were terrible in different ways and picking one of them, Andy Burnham from the outside could go, I wouldn't do that, or we shouldn't be doing that. There must be another way. And on this, he has spent basically more time than on anything else since he's become prime minister on trying to find another way.
13:55And he has to a limited extent, he's trying to find another way on PC Harper's Killers. But what happens when there is no other way? We've not actually seen this prime minister deal with a situation where he is forced by events to take a course of action he didn't like or that he can't put a positive spin on. And we're getting close to the territory now where he might just have to admit defeat and say, look, there is no more I can do. It's also a quite ominous preview of the budget process because when this is about people's money, the political pain, I think, will be exponentially greater despite how emotive and outrageous a lot of the substance here is.
14:33It's just also just worth reflecting on a little bit inside Whitehall. So the Prime Minister's narrative at the moment, I am taking on officials. Officials said, no, I don't think that's good enough. I am going to overrule that and change it. The Ministry of Justice is incredibly bruised by what is happening here. They're basically experiencing the wrath of a Prime Minister, an angry new Prime Minister. And from what I'm told is, look, their position is, we didn't say nothing is impossible. We said you can do these things. But there are downsides. And for each of these solutions, there are downsides.
15:04We presented you with policy options and the risks involved. And that is our job. And the feeling that that has led to kind of a degree of ill will on the side of the Ministry of Justice, which is frankly, you know, feels pretty bruised by what's happened. But more broadly, for kind of how it looks to the public, I guess, you know, Prime Minister taking on officials, naysayers, to force through a measure that will prevent the release of some really awful criminals is probably quite a good fight at this point in time for Andy Burnham. It's how that unravels over time. Shall we head to the interval?
15:37And when we get back, we're going to talk about Nigel Farage, Claxton and his finances and where we go from here. When everything is moving all at once, your workforce, your tech stack, your business, you don't need more tools. You need one solution. That's why Paylocity built a single platform to connect HR, finance, and IT with AI-driven insights and automated workflows that simplify the complex and power what's next. Because when everything comes together in one place, growth comes easy. Experience one place for all your HCM needs. Start now at Paylocity.com slash one.
16:41saw significant improvement in psoriasis symptoms of pain, redness, itching, and burning. Don't use if allergic to SkyRizzy. Serious allergic reactions, increased infections, or lower ability to fight them may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor about any flu-like symptoms or vaccines. Now there's nothing on my skin, thanks to SkyRizzy, and that means everything. Ask your doctor about SkyRizzy, the number one dermatologist prescribed biologic and psoriasis. Visit SkyRizzy.com or call 1-866-SKY-Rizzy to learn more.
17:17Welcome back to StateFit. We want to talk to you about Nigel Farage. So we have a by-election on Thursday, which on one level you could argue is completely pointless. Nigel Farage will beat inevitably a man who wears a bill on his head. He's forecast to get 70 to 75 percent of the vote. Count bin faces somewhere on about 20 percent of the vote. And you might think this entire thing is a waste of time. But I think what we would probably say to that is there are broader politics at play here. And we're going to see that on Friday. Patrick, do you want to just kick us off on what the narrative is going to be?
17:51Yeah, look, I think it's a really important moment in the history of reform, this. It's the beginning of a new phase in reforms politics in terms of how it relates to parliament, the media and its voters and also the rest of the right. So what will Nigel Farage say in his declaration speech on Friday when he begins what I'm told is going to be a big blitz of campaigning after this? It will be that he has been vindicated, that the other parties have abandoned Clacton, crucially the Tories. And if you speak to reform strategists, they'll say, you know, he has spent six weeks away from Westminster.
18:30He's been in Clacton. He's been surrounded by, to a large extent, people who are affirming him, saying he's great, telling him not to let the bastards grind him down. And on a more operational level, what have Reform now got? They have got a wealth of data about all of their voters in Clacton. And they've shown that Nigel Farage can use that data in the next election, then he can tour the country in a way that national leaders in marginal seats or seats where they don't have that level of data are seldom able to, right? So they think it's a hugely significant thing and that if he has to fight another by-election, if the Standards Commissioner come back later in the year and say, actually, no, there's a recall petition, then he's got a ready-made formula.
19:15You know, I told you when you voted me in last August, they were going to try this again, send them another message. So, yeah, look, the consensus view of the other parties was, ha-ha, like Nigel Farage is arguing with a man with a bin in his head. isn't this funny? I think actually reform are coming out of this and, you know, put aside the question of their national polling, just think about what this has done to one Farage's morale. Before he called this by-election, he was ground down by all the coverage. He was getting sick of answering questions about everything all the time. Felt like he was being slapped about.
19:53This has re-energised him. And actually, if you speak to people who are close to him, they say he's now sort of pretty nonchalant about all this because he's now in his head established the formula for dealing with it, which is just appeal to the people of Clacton and go over their heads and just ignore and deny and straight back these questions. He was asked about George Cottrell, about whom there've been many stories in the Sunday Times, at a press conference earlier this week. And at several press conferences, he's just said, yeah, I'm friends with Post George. I've taken money off Post George.
20:21So what? You know, and is that sort of approach you're now seeing from him, which is pretty confounding. Some people might say it's pretty worrying X, Y, Z but Clacton that's what Clacton has done to him. We're going to see a new version of Farage who is regardless of how reform are doing in the polls nationally pretty emboldened and feeling a sort of renewed energy to take these questions on regardless of the broader consequences. I think the risk Laura is that this just bogs him down. So he has got an outstanding investigation for the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner who is looking into this£5 million gift, open quotes, gift, close quotes, that he received from a crypto billionaire, whether that should have been declared or not.
21:03Now, that matter then could get referred to the Standards Committee, if the Standards Commissioner finds against him. And that committee, we've been there before, we had it with Boris Johnson, it turns into a massive spectacle. It just dominates the bandwidth, and it will mean months and months of questions about his finances and scrutiny of those finances. And that is challenging and politically challenging. So the framing of it will be is a kangaroo court, is people versus the establishment. But the challenge is that it's just going to come back to questions about its finances over and over.
21:33I think you're right. It is a risk. And what we're seeing in the polls suggests that it is actually proving to be quite a substantial and possibly electorally significant risk as well. Like, you know, I know that the story in the Times this morning about the fact that Labour is now ahead of reform by two points is all within the margin of error. But the point is that reform are no longer clearly ahead of Labour consistently in a way that they have been. And this is the worst result they've had, what is it, since last March? They're not talking about what they want to be talking about. You've got mega dinghies, you've got crime.
22:04These are the central issues when Farage is doing well that he talks about. Yeah, I mean, one of the crucial examples of this, I think, as well is High Street. So you've got Andy Byrne making these announcements on High Street today, which do resemble quite significantly, I think it's fair to say, some of the initiatives we saw under Keir Starmer. But this is an issue that Farage, that Richard Tice, that Zia Youssef have seized with open arms for a seriously long time, the high street. They're obsessed with the politics of home. This idea that the high street is really crucial. They've had a number of different announcements on this.
22:34Farage's videos on this have been among his most successful ever. This should be a week in which, you know, Farage wants to be talking aggressively about the high street, only the high street, you would think, and could make serious headway and really mount some quite significant attacks on the Labour plans for these in a way that probably won't happen because basically we're focusing on this by-election instead. Now, I know he has been talking about these issues on the by-election campaign as well. I don't want to distract from that. I'm sure that's definitely been the case. We've seen that. But even so, you're right that it is worth considering the kinds of things that they're not able to fully, fully focus on because, of course, they've got this big question hanging over them.
23:08I think it's worth dwelling on the Boris Johnson comparison just briefly. There are big differences because when Boris Johnson went before the Standards Committee, it was politically over for him. The Tory party had abandoned him. He had no support. So the final nail in the coffin was this suspension that would have come into force if he was still an MP. Whereas I think what Farage has done, Patrick, is by winning in Clacton, which you would expect him to do, it removes arguably the toughest sanction, which would be you face a recall petition and therefore lose your seat. Well, actually, he has full support of all reform.
23:40and I think one of the messages they'll say is, I'll do this again. If you ban me, I'll do it again. I'm spiking your guns effectively. Also, by the way, and this is a suggestion I picked up last week, don't be surprised if Nigel Farage isn't the first Reform MP to do this. If other Reform MPs face accusations or investigations, he's given them the playbook. It's a bit like when every Ulster Unionist MP resigned over the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1986. It's that sort of playbook. you resign on this issue of principle, then fight your seat again. Well, maybe this isn't an issue of principle, but you can, Farage has shown you can do this and there are sort of organisational advantages to doing it.
24:19None of this is to say it's amazing for reform's national representation or it's exactly what they should be doing, but just the mechanics of running a political party, don't lose sight of that is what I would say. Yeah, I mean, it's also true that there's only so many reform MPs for whom that could would be the case of in a future reform government because they are so obsessed with getting outside talent in, who will actually, by definition, just be free of a lot of that parliamentary scrutiny, right? Because they believe in this model of being able to have people in cabinet, whether you put them to the Lords to serve or just in wider advisory positions in government, they will find ways of making sure that these people don't have to go through what?
24:56We're getting one before the reforms conference. We're going to get their defence spokesman, which we're told is a very senior military figure. and they've I mean we don't know who it is at this stage but they're pretty confident they've got someone that's a good fit for it so again that will be someone who's not an MP that is therefore not subject to the same strictures and code as an MP but I think you know once this Plattson thing is done with it'll be the ultimate test of how effective all this has been will be can Nigel Farage seize the agenda on something that isn't himself I'm also told what Nigel Farage is going to ramp up from next Friday is a demand for a general election again and again and again.
25:37Andy Burnham is illegitimate. We need a general election. Running up into reforms, big conference in Boone in September where that'll be one of the big headline things. Call an election. You've got to call an election. It's interesting. Farage has long predicted privately and indeed publicly that there will be an election in 2027. He said that in his speech last year. Maybe it'll come to pass, but that's the other big thing you will hear from him again and again and again. Are people still willing to listen? Because if you speak to reform strategists, you know, they obviously look at the polls and say, yeah, it's not great.
26:10But something they think is the issue is, and you pick this up on the other side from Labour MPs as well, it's varying levels of enthusiasm on the party's core vote. So Labour voters are now suddenly very enthusiastic. Green wavers are coming back. Whereas all of these stories have sort of deflated, de-energised, put the frighteners on reform's core vote a little bit. And that's part of the reason for leaning into Clacton as well. And part of the practical reason for embracing the Clacton experiment as well, because it gives them a formula for geeing them up. Because there are two things that are just worth flagging about what comes next on the standards stuff.
26:50Is Farage announced that he was resigning as an MP shortly before he was due to give evidence to Daniel Greenberg, the standards commissioner. So he was due to do it. And then he did this and said, so he has to do that. He has to give evidence. and he also has to provide the physical evidence he has. And they have one piece of evidence which they say is critical. It's a written agreement is how it's described between Farage and Christopher Harbourn which says that this£5 million was a personal gift. And that's their main kind of trump card as they see it. The problem with that is it's a question of perception and whether that money could have been perceived as a benefit and therefore should have been declared.
27:26And that's what he's going to come up against. but at some point I think they are planning to actually publish that just to demonstrate and make their point. So we'll see where it ends up but again it is a lot of money and people will obviously ask questions about what was that money for and why have you received it and was it genuinely a gift which is where we are today. Yeah, and to that reform say well all the revelations about policing investigation into fraud security, the tragic murder of Anne Whittacombe, They say what they're hearing in Clacton now is, oh, no wonder you need all that money for your security.
28:01I mean, look, anecdote is not data. And the national polls tell a slightly different story about how people have reacted to Farage since that. But it is worth saying and worth pointing out, they may yet be proven wrong that reform, reform's leadership do think they have a strategy and the lines to take to get them through this. And even if Westminster podcasters disagree with them, I think what we will see after Clacton is a version of reform that is just emboldened to pay even less regard for the niceties and conventions and decorum of Westminster. I think, by the way, that is something we haven't seen, reform conscientiously objecting entirely to Westminster's game.
28:44It's much more like what Donald Trump does, and often think that's a facile comparison. But I think we are going to see something that looks a lot more like a purer populace from abroad than anything we've seen in British politics before. It's true that in the focus group that we did with More In Common in Clacton, the people that were sceptical of Nigel Farage were much more likely to cite the fact that they didn't feel he was in Clacton that much, for example, than they were the£5 million. And actually, when that came up, they were, you know, some people would say this is a slightly depressing take.
29:20But the overwhelming consensus was they're all at it. They're all at it. Everyone's got their hand in the tiller. Like, you know, and, you know, security is a really big thing. So I don't really, it was, that wasn't an issue that resonated with people, even among those in Clacton. And of course, there aren't that many necessarily who did have concerns. I mean, it's a bandwidth issue. Just to come back to it again. What they want to do is get back to the farage of last summer, where they were on the front for consistent press conferences every Monday. exactly as you say, Patrick, talking about policy, talking about migration boats, talking about the issues.
29:48And that's when they do better in the polls. When he's asked again and again about his finances, gets prickly, it is more difficult. Yeah, of course, of course. And that's why Clacton has been, I think, regardless of what happens, I think it's been a restorative experience for Farage, personally. You know, someone put it to me the other day, he's got a tan and he's losing weight and, you know, hasn't had to answer any hostile questions for a while. Now, you may say, you know, if only every leader could be so lucky and, you know, he'll face the questions again quite soon. But I think it's done something quite significant to his state of mind and mentality and sort of convinced him to approach what comes next in a different way.
30:32And we'll see how effective that is. OK, so we're now going to read out, as is a legal requirement, the names of all the candidates competing. It's the highlight of the show, Laura. Sorry. I'm more enthusiastic. That sound really... Exactly. Sorry. I'll begin. Okay, so Joseph, 77, independent. Adam Al-Khatip from the Forward Party. Count Binface from Count Binface Party. Nick the Incredible Flying Brick from the official Monster Raving Loony Party. Tony Cain, an independent. Woke Trump Karziz, an independent. William Stewart James Clouston from the Social Democratic Party. Rhys Cowan, an independent.
31:07Glenn Charles Cummings, an independent. Martin Davies from the Freedom Alliance. Real People, Real Alternative. Andy Earlham, an independent. Nigel Farage, Reform UK. And I'll pass over to Steve. OK, here we go. Atia Fard, an independent. Lawrence Fox of the Reclaim Party. Tony Francis, an independent. Robin Green, an independent. Abby Hookway, an independent. Howling Lord Hope of the official Monster Raving Loony Party. Yes, their second candidate. Stephen Richard Ingram, an independent. Amy Morris, an independent. Derek Norbert Morris, an independent. Michael Noel O 'Keefe, an independent. Martin O 'Brien, an independent.
31:45And Nick Pellas, an independent. Patrick, over to you. Ketan Kumar Pippalaya, UK voice, Safer and Stronger UK. Daniel Pocock, independent. James Ransley, Consensus Party candidate. Gerry Smith, independent. Kai Stevens, British Democrats. John Stevens, rejoin EU. Baron Von Thunderclap, the official monster raving loony party. Pamela Walford, independent. Marcus White Everyone is God Party and Mark Wilkinson Independent Brilliant That my friends is British democracy in action I think that brings us to an end this week Thank you everyone for listening We'd like to pay tribute to our awesome producers Who wants to do that?
32:24I very gladly do it You and Daughtry and Harry Kitson thank you for all that you do and we pray for Molly Guinness' safe return from holiday sometime soon
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33:13Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor about any flu-like symptoms or vaccines. Now there's nothing on my skin, thanks to SkyRizzy. And that means everything. Ask your doctor about SkyRizzy, the number one dermatologist prescribed biologic and psoriasis. Visit SkyRizzy.com or call 1-866-SKYRizzy to learn more.
Last week, Andy Burnham said he had reached “the very limits of what is possible”, appearing powerless to prevent the early release of PC Andrew Harper’s killers. But after a wave of public outrage, he has now promised to stop it. This is Burnham’s first major collision between style and substance – can his positive-vibes politics really trump the reality of a political nightmare?
Then over to Clacton, where a tanned Nigel Farage has embedded himself in his constituency. What comes next for Reform’s leader after he does the inevitable and defeats Count Binface in the by-election? Can he get Reform back on track after a difficult few months?
Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times
Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Picture: PA media
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