Reform's conference begins with a crisis

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1:12They're the only political party that wants to allow us to have our country back. I think the more news stories are about Ferrari, which are negative but not a massive deal, people will just be inoculated to it and people won't care. We are now against the entire media and establishment. They are picking on every little thing they can have a go at. They just don't seem to care about us, the indigenous population of this country. It's not a good look, obviously. It's£30 ,000 at most. They're a patriotic group who believe in Britain and who believe in what our ancestors fought for. Welcome to The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times.

1:59We are coming to you from Reform Conference, where it's been a pretty extraordinary day of drama. I'm Stephen Swinford, the political editor of The Times, and we have with us today, drumroll please. Hello, Ben Riley-Smith, the new Sunday Times political editor. Nice to be with you. I'm Larry Spirit, the deputy political editor of The Sunday Times. And I'm Patrick McGuire, the old, still quite young, chief political commentator for The Times. So look, this has been a really unusual conference. We expected it all to be about a big announcement with Jordan Bardella about migration, and instead it is about another scandal-embroiling reform, which has culminated in an extraordinary act of political brutality in which Nigel Farage has turned on two of his closest aides, James Orr and Dan Dukes.

2:49And I can tell you this has happened in real time. So we're going to start this podcast with where we were last night. So last night, Ben and I were among a number of Fliths editors that were invited to some drinks with Nigel Frosh. And it was a very nice occasion here just behind us in the platinum lounge of Reform UK Conference. So we can't say what was said, but it was a convivial occasion. It was, yeah, it was fun. Warm white wine. Nigel Farage was there. Dan Dukes was there. They were all in good form, right? People were happy and people, I'm sure, will get into the allegations and what was reported in this Channel 4 documentary.

3:24But the reform lot knew about them. They'd been told about them on Tuesday. They'd seen written down the words of what was in the documentary. They felt they'd seen it off. They got legal advice and they were comfortable with the position. And the people who would, as of today, be sacked, Dan Jukes was there himself. Nigel Farage was there. And yeah, they often do this at conferences, party leaders or senior people in the party. it's chance to mingle with some of the senior political journalists to get their message across what they're trying to get on the conference and obviously what nigel wanted to talk about was the message he's trying to deliver at this conference which has been railroaded okay so last night everything was hunky-dory they were in classic reform mode they were quite fighty but they were relaxed about it and yes dan dukes himself was there one of nigel farage's closest days dan dukes has known Nigel Farage for a very long time.

4:14He first encountered Nigel Farage when we're told Nigel visited his school and he did a speech, Nigel, against the smoking ban. Dan Dukes is a kid from quite a tough upbringing. He wasn't doing particularly well at school from what we're told, but he was taken with Nigel's message. He joined UKIP, rose up the ranks and eventually became his, when it became the Brexit party, one of his press officers and then one of the most senior people in Reform UK. Okay, and he is ubiquitous. Whenever you see Nigel Farage, he always has Dan Dukes at his side. And it is described as a father-son relationship.

4:49It's not a normal political relationship. So last night, we're at the drinks, everyone's relaxed, and then the Channel 4 footage starts to come in. And I kind of relocate myself to the edge of the room and I'm watching it and thinking, this is not good. This is a problem. And it blew up overnight. And from what you're told, Lara, it actually blew up in the small hours of the morning yeah i was i mean i went to sleep i imagine maybe much earlier than you but when uh when i clocked off i was i was feeling like they were pretty confident with how it was yeah uh and by the time i'd woken up obviously everything had changed but i was told that it was the small hours of the morning and that actually you know dan jukes uh had had sort of recognized the way the wind was blowing and had felt like you know he'd looked at this had sort of understood that it was playing quite badly and that as a result have been quite happy to fall on his sword, so to speak, as a result of this.

5:39I mean, like you say, Dan Drews is president of your drinks last night. He was on his way out of Birmingham in the small hours of the morning or this morning. And so clearly this was a decision that was made quickly. And even this morning, not the early hours, but it felt like people in senior action reform were sort of coming to terms with this decision and working out exactly what it means, which was, I mean, compounded by the fact that we heard from Lee Anderson, Of course, the party chair who, as you've noted, had gone far further than the statement we initially had. Lee Anderson was saying, basically, they're gone and they're not coming back, referring to Dan Dukes and James Orr.

6:11When actually the statement had made it seem a little bit like it was, you know, pending an investigation. How serious would this exit actually be? When I'd initially seen that statement, I thought, OK, well, I mean, there's no way they're actually leaving. Like, this is just a sort of helpful way to be able to say, OK, we're looking like we're taking action. But actually, it seems like, speaking to senior people in reform, it is a pretty firm exit, particularly for Dukes. That's not to say that he won't come back in some form at all, but it does feel certainly like a really serious blow. And it's hard to overstate just how upset some of the people I was speaking to this morning are about that as well.

6:41Patrick, let's talk about, like, Nigel. His response is, like, again, really brutal. He's described James Orr and Dan Dukes as contractors. Yes, which is, I mean, we've spoken about how close and essential these people, particularly Jan Dukesworth, the operation. That is not necessarily how Nigel Farage would have referred to them last week. And it's interesting. Nigel Farage is often considered to be loyal to a fault to those to whom he is closest. I mean, look at what he said about George Cottrell, another aide who's been a sometime aide, friend, who's been the subject of lots of Sunday Times reporting.

7:24And he's spoken very openly, Nigel Farage, about the importance of loyalty. So it is quite something and genuinely really striking and surprising that he's taken the course of action he has this morning. And it's interesting too, how did he open his press conference, right? He said it was a little local difficulty. There is a determination on his part. I mean, let's see how certainly tomorrow goes and the coverage over the weekend. I think there's a determination on his part. Lee Anderson struck the same note this morning to say, look, we're a serious political party. We deal with serious things in a serious way.

7:59Now, can we please talk about the other stuff? You know, it was striking that there was still a lot of discussion about migration in that press conference with Jordan Bardella. Let's see. That might be wishful thinking. but in a way for the first time we're seeing him respond almost like a conventional leader can we can we just like get get down to the people patrick you can you start on dan jukes you know dan pretty well why should listeners care about dan jukes well it comes it comes back to the point you said steve dan dan jukes has been one of niger farage's closest if not the closest day for a very very long time uh and he's been sort of in and out of uh niger fries in a circle doing a various number of roles, but he's a very, very important figure.

8:41Certainly one of Nigel Farage's inner circle, was his spokesman for a very long time, has been doing a range of roles since. Every political leader has a small group of people or persons who are always with them, and Dan Duke certainly was that for Farage. And the UKIP connection is key. As you said, joined UKIP, was with him through UKIP, and that's a key dynamic within reformers. You've got people who have been with Nigel for ages and ages, feel like they know what this project is, and there's the divide that's become very evident over the past year or so, which is the Tory directors, people who want this party to be something different, people who don't necessarily like the sort of populist, radical right energy the party has, wants to take it in a different direction.

9:25And Dan Jukes is definitely in the first camp, the sort of Nigel day ones, as it were. So then we should also talk about James Orr. I don't know who wants to talk about him, but he's obviously a Cambridge professor. He is an evangelical Christian. He found God while skiing down the slopes in Verbier, nearly dying but stopping himself just before he skied off a chalet roof and was converted, hallelujah, at that moment. But he is obviously massively close to J.D. Vance from people. What do we know about him? Well, what's quite interesting is he's not like Dan. He wasn't incredibly close to Nigel for the last 10 years.

9:57Actually, as an academic, he occupies this kind of Christian right space in Cambridge University. And he's in one of that connecting pieces between the Trumposphere in America and Farage and reform. And actually, you know, there's an interesting question about how and why he's become so central quite recently to reform. I think some in reform saw him as a connecting point for Farage's movement into Trump's movement. So we know that J.D. Vance is very close to Orr, has come to Orr's house in Cambridge and stayed with him. Officially, his title was head of policy, But what's so interesting about this documentary, which might need to talk about some of the specifics, is the role that has emerged in this documentary has nothing to do with policy.

10:40He seems to be a point of contact for some people trying to give money to the party. He's a middleman. And in that documentary, run by Channel 4, done by this activist group that's previously had climate connections, it is Orr who is meeting up with this person posing as the British son of a US financier in various swanky West London hotels to drinks talking about how to get money into the party. That is not being head of policy. That is not what we thought he was doing, was just coming up with intellectual, future-facing, evangelical right policy. So he's actually quite different to Dan. Dan was a fixer, right-hand man to Farage, or was always seen as the brains of the operation, but actually this documentary reveals he was doing something else as well.

11:26We should just try to boil down the scandal as much as we can, the Channel 4 story. So the issue at heart here is they got an actor to pose as a US guy that wanted to donate to reform, but, well, actually not donate directly to reform, but to pay for polling through his son. So the reason that's a problem is this is a US company and a US, purportedly US guy, who are offering money to benefit a party. Now, that was seen as the open quote sweet spot in the documentary because it wasn't, the money wasn't going to reform directly it was going straight from this American via his son to a kind of London entity to JL Partners the polling company in question that resulted in three polls that were paid for for around 32 grand in total there were I think two in the Telegraph and one in the Times it should be noted that the Times we had no idea how that had been paid for and the Telegraph likewise but We've just pulled this closer and upfrontness on what happened there.

12:30And they are filmed on camera talking about that. And what becomes clear watching it, this is all actually organised in cooperation with senior people in reform, with Dan Dukes and James Orr. And that is a potential criminal offence because this is an illegal donation on that basis or could be a potential illegal donation coming from the US. And crucially, Nigel Farage had this statement where he says the party has done nothing wrong the party has not accepted any money and that distinction is key because the law is about individuals individuals can be found to seek to get uh impermissible donations and that is why it looks to me like dan dukes and james or have been thrown under the bus because ultimately all roads are likely to lead to an expanded police investigation the police are already looking into various aspects of donations around reform it's expected this will roll into that so a kind of widening police investigation and that's just a kind of juggernaut that is down the tracks at some point well it is worth talking i think about the critical scene in that documentary that comes at the end it's in a pub garden over oysters nigel farage dan jukes uh this person actor pretending to be the american businessman and the son, who is a Brit, pretending to be a Brit.

13:52And essentially the son lays out the proposal, which is, look, my dad is American and he's rich. He will give me some money because he is not a permissible donor. He's a foreigner. And I will then give it to you. Is that all right? And Nigel Farage is there in the scene, as is Dan Jukes. Nigel Farage doesn't say that much, but he does say, thanks, thanks both of you. He also, it should be said, and Nigel Farage is making this clear, says something along the lines of, is this all above board or as long as it's all above board? But that is the critical exchange that's going to be interrogated because those doing the investigation would unsure claim that was Nigel saying, I understand this scheme involves bringing American money into Britain through your son.

14:35Nigel Farage is saying, no, no, no. I thought there was some family trust and it was all kosher. So that's the core of what's going to be looked at over the coming day. Farage is essentially pleading innocent. So he up there today was saying that it's a family trust. I don't really understand these things, etc. But the problem is, in the eye of the law, ignorance is not a defence. It's incumbent on the person involved in discussing the donation to understand that. Yeah, it all comes down to whether you think that scene is categoric proof that Nigel was saying, I understand something illegal is being proposed.

15:06I'm fine with it. Or whether he was saying, yeah, OK, as long as it's all legal, not quite sure about the details. and ultimately the ones who had the more detailed conversations the two reform figures have got. And obviously there will be a... There are various investigations running, as you say, which have a habit of slipping into the background while they go on, as they necessarily do. But I think losing these two people, Dan Jukes especially, will have really profound political consequences because in that order, Dan Jukes and James Aura, two people who have shaped the party we see here today as political and strategic advisors to Nigel Farage, people shaping the policy agenda, people shaping how they respond to events, etc, etc.

15:46So how does Nidha Farage proceed without those people? How does he weather the store once we're into the coming weeks? I mean, Reforms Hope, obviously, as we sit here, is they can set the agenda. Also, I mean, I'm sure we have been, we've overheard, and obviously this is an unrepresentative example compared to the country at large, with a number of activists who hear today saying it's a smear, it's a hit job by the mainstream media, it's a stitch-up. The question for reform, strategically, whenever this sort of story hits them is, OK, what difference does it make to their support in the country?

16:24The Clapton by-election showed that a summer of damaging revelations on much else, despite that Nigel Farage still had a pretty big core vote. But I suppose the question going forward is, if you are a Tory voter who was otherwise looking at reform, what does this week make you think? Are you listening to the press conference with Nigel Farage and Jordan Bardella? You probably are, and you're probably thinking, great, but does the drumbeat of other stuff make you think, hmm, no? And that is the big political question, how Nigel Farage moves forward with a very different-looking team as a result of this.

17:03Yeah, and look, there are. reform is not a nest of singing birds the amount of people we i'm sure that you've all spoken to the senior people in different respects here there's a lot of antagonism between the top people in reform a lot there are people that are really sad to see dan dukes and james all go and there are people that think that this was an entirely unnecessary own goal that has ruined conference and think they should have gone some time ago and that is that is a there are different views about people in reform so you're right it's good it's a change at the top the weird thing for me is they didn't need the money i mean laura look look the donations for the second quarter just came out yesterday 5.3 million quid for reform four million pounds from cryptocurrency billionaire bendelo you know hasim baidar given 180 they've got big money yeah yeah no they're phenomenally well funded at this point and it is something that they are very confident about that they want to talk about and so it's it is almost it is quite peculiar i agree that they've gone through this and they felt like this needed to be the way that uh that they jumped through this i think it is it is also worth talking about the specific role of faraj here as well because he is in this footage right we are all talking about this and and this is what this is what they want to happen is that you can cast aside these two particular individuals and it's a clean slate and there are no further questions for reform here and when i've spoken to people in reform i mean that is basically the hope that this will be enough to stop people talking about it.

18:29But actually, Nigel Farage is in footage. I mean, they make a point in this of saying to him, you know, with regards to what Ben was talking about, really that half a million pound possible donation that never happened, but they made a point of explicitly saying, yeah, it would be my father's money, but it would be me as the name on that. And that is, and it looks to be, like it would be an impermissible donor and Farage appeared to be aware of that. So that is going to be an ongoing question for them.

18:58Jordan Bardella: You've got social dialed in. Search is doing its thing. So why do your marketing results look the same as six months ago? That's because you're fishing in the same pond as everyone else. Podcast listeners are a different audience entirely. More engaged, harder to reach through traditional channels, and ready to act when someone they trust makes a recommendation. We're Acast, and we put them right in front of you. Browse thousands of the world's leading podcasts, book host reads or run your own ads, and track every conversion in real time. Same skills you already have, brand new results. ACAST, acast.com slash advertise.

19:39Shall we, let's talk about what the central announcement today. So we will put for now this rolling scandal to one side because there is a big chunky announcement with Jordan Bardello. Who wants to kind of kick us off on that? Jordan Bardello, who is he? and why what they've done today, you know, the politics of it. Well, Jordan Bardella is the national rally candidate. And it's interesting, you know, they had lunch last year, Nigel Farage and Jordan Bardella at which, you know, and he said this publicly, Bardella, that he is of a generation of European Eurosceptics who were sort of radicalised by videos of Nigel Farage on YouTube.

20:15He's only in his 30s. And so they have a sort of fairly longstanding relationship. And the theme here, and you can see it on posters all around, is the first 100 days. Reform believes that the big dividing line now is not policy, because they think everybody's going to converge on broadly the same things. Let's get growth up. Let's get migration down. Let's get crime down. The question is, how do you deliver it? And so that was meant to be, and indeed still has been. We're still talking about it. The big centrepiece announcement on migration. It's not migration should come down or we should stop the boats.

20:49it. I, Nigel Farage, will stop the boat. It's in the first 100 days. And I'm going to tell you how I'm going to do it. You know, this is sort of a resignation matter for me. But also, I'm sure you I'm serious. I can do it in 100 days because the next president of France is there saying to me he's going to work with me to stop it. And it's a different style of announcement. In any other circumstance, I think this would be dominating the headlines today. You know, it's usually sort of foreign speakers at conferences. You know, last year it was Preston Manning, the guy who started the Canadian Reform Party in the 1990s.

21:21Usually they're sort of people who come and give a few warm words. It's quite rare, actually, that you see a foreign leader or a foreign president in Waysing coming and making a concrete policy pledge. So it's not a small deal. And the theatrics were fantastic. I mean, that's what Nigel Farage is good at as a politician. So there was this something hidden under a white sheet on stage. And finally, when Nigel Farage took the stage, he said, oh, you've all been wondering what this thing is. Let me go over there. And it was a memorandum of understanding between Bordella and Farage that said, if both parties get into power, possibly in the next year, who knows, they will promise that if migrants on small boats get into the UK bit of watch on English Channel, the UK government under Farage will tow them back to France.

22:06I mean, what I find so interesting about that, I went back to think back to that Tony Blair essay when Keir Starmer was wobbling and Blair tried to capture the appeal of populism. And he said it's all about efficacy. It's all about being able to seem to deliver on the problems that people have. And most people who look at the school base issue and have concerns about it will think, OK, the Tories have had years, they haven't solved it. Labour have had years, they haven't solved it. Farage is proposing something that could actually solve it, even though it would be very controversial, possibly illegal, possibly unethical.

22:38You can have that debate. And it feels to me the entire theme of this conference is all about saying reform will solve those issues, will smash through that barrier and have the effect if we get into power. Yeah, and it is sort of a, you know, putting their own necks on the line, which, you know, it is, we are all pledging to you and crucially pledging to Nigel Farage that in 100 days we will do this. It's not a manifesto, it's inspired by Newt Gingrich's 1994 contract with America, which is what swept the Republicans to control of both houses of Congress in Bill Clinton's first term, it was very similar.

23:16In 100 days, we will do this. We've signed on the dotted line. That is our pledge to you. And it's a different, you know, I don't think any British party has ever done it. So that is the strategy on migration and much else. But are people listening? That is the question after today. And it's exactly as you said earlier. It's not a new policy. It's highlighting an existing policy. So this policy of getting the Royal Navy to confront small boats was announced earlier this summer. They said they're going to get them, drag them back to France and take all the people in the small boats and put them back on French soil.

23:49And the problem of that was when the French government came out and said, no, you can't do that. You can't have them on French soil. What did they say, Steve? I said, well, terrible French. Excuse my accent. Please, Fred. They make it better. Anyway, either way, they said no, a flat no. So this is an attempt to remedy that in real time to just show actually they might say no, but this guy says yes. I mean, it's interesting because Burnham and Number 10 are now becoming more bullish on actually talking about small boats in a way that previously, I think you could say that Shabal Mahmoud has actually been pretty effective as a Home Secretary on this and the numbers were looking pretty good.

24:22A number of people I speak to in Labour are often quite frustrated that they don't shout enough about those numbers. And with McConnell arriving this week, clearly Burnham felt, I saw he did a tweet and did a number of interventions to try and make the case that actually they are taking action on this. So that will become, I think, more of a focal point in the next few weeks. It's an interesting thing, the numbers and small boats, because with net migration, you feel people do feel differently, whether it's 500 ,000 or 100 ,000. With small boats, which is fundamentally breaking the law and breaking the asylum rules to cross the country, you get the feeling that until it's zero, the public will not give any political credit.

24:53Stop boats. Andy Burnham is trying to say, look, the numbers have come down, it's working. But you will still, you know, what is it this year, 16 ,000 people have crossed or something. I think until you get to zero, it's very hard to get credit from the public. And by the way, you know, the boats issue is obviously the most salient. That is the thing that, you know, the intensity with which people feel on these issues. I mean, there's a long, long way to go until the next election, although it's worth saying that both Kemi Badenock and Nigel Farage think it's probably coming in May. As much as Number 10 insists that's definitely not the case.

25:25the feeling is that you know despite the noise despite the little local local difficulty the desire for radical action on this stuff will ultimately blast through everything now we'll see uh you know it's been very very noisy today but that is that is the calculation and i don't know what others think but it's um it's uh feeling like a bold one okay i think that brings us to an end today as Lara departs the stage discreetly or tries to do so. Reform UK says it has done nothing wrong and taken no illegal money. It adds that the polls in question were not commissioned by reform and that there is no issue of any kind around the polls.

26:05It says that the investigation was carried out by far-left activists who have perpetuated hoaxes for many years. JL Partners, which conducted the polls, said it holds itself to high standards. A spokesman said, despite there being no concern about the accuracy of our work, the report did reveal weaknesses in our procedures. For that reason, Jail Partners is reviewing those procedures in order to eliminate possible grey areas and ambiguities and strengthen our safeguards for the future. So look, there's another day of this tomorrow. My esteemed colleagues at Sunday class will be all over that. We just wanted to say thank you to all of our amazing, brilliant listeners and viewers.

26:42And a particular thank you to Patrick, would you like to do it? Thank you Thank you very much to Molly Guinness and Harry Kitson for making us look and sound presentable to an extent.

27:15post-read authenticity, and performance data that proves it worked. Don't fight for attention. Buy it with Acast. Learn more by visiting acast.com slash advertise.