Bitcoin is Undervalued, But the Bottom Isn't In Yet | Rational Root

30:17And we've seen that also in previous cycles. And so you can see that there's still a couple of months of this bottom formation after such event. And so we had a severe capitalization event, but not of the size that we saw at the bear market bottom, like FTX, for example, here at the bear market bottom in 2022. And so to me, yeah, that means that we still have a couple of months time-wise. And so people need to be a bit patient. So you said there you took some profit. Have you bought back in yet or what are you waiting for? no i'm um no i i'm actually not i took some profit to sustain the bear market year um so i um uh you know i as a hotler i also look to improve my lifestyle and um you know i knew that there was a high risk of having a year-long bear market and so i i i did not want to risk uh you know not having enough funds to sustain the whole year for the lifestyle improvements that I'm undergoing.

31:26And so that was for me a key reason to take some profit at those levels. Okay, fair enough. It's not something you were looking to buy back in with necessarily. No, I have a long term stack. And actually, I have like a stacking goal still as well. But, you know, given that we're moving into a year bear market or that likely was very high, it was a good moment to take profit. Now I might buy back in if we really get another leg down and we get to these undervalued levels. And I have some charts on that later, I can show you where that would be. No, price might just be too good and I might move some funds back.

32:03But basically, I plan on some lifestyle improvements. And so instead of waiting for potential higher prices of Bitcoin, I took some earlier profits to sustain a bear market year. Fair enough. You've got to live your life, man. So the thing that I've seen around this chart or a similar chart on Twitter from all the TA people out there is that people are calling this another bear flag now. I don't know how much, I don't put too much credence on TA, but is that something you're watching? Yeah. I mean, I put more thought into on-chain analysis and I have some very good charts on this, But indeed, it could be.

32:41And so I still think there's a reason that we might have another leg down. I think the chance is fairly high even. And that would happen over the next couple of months. But as I said, we also have passive flows into Bitcoin. And so we don't have to get there this time. Just as we didn't have this blow of thought or we had such a distributed thought, but we also didn't even reach 140k, which was a bit disappointing, I guess, for many. um also i think now maybe some people will get disappointed by the lows that we make or like that they that we cannot buy cheap sats makes sense okay let's go on to the next one what else we got yeah so so as i say so we have all this conflict in the world um but but it it basically always comes down to fear and greed like within bitcoin right and and um so this the events that we have seen actually now um uh made us drop so so in this chart i actually have some uh some levels based on the short term holder cost basis and basically those levels are uh you know how much loss can a short term holder sustain and so we have this short term holder floor and the mezzanine level in between um and so with that that february 5th drop we nearly reached so these This is actually daily closed data.

34:01But if you would look at the actual price, we nearly touched that short-term holder floor level. And now we kind of moved up again about, you know, above that mezzanine level. So we're in the middle of those levels, which is a very common level to get to if we look at Bitcoin's history. And usually, so for example, with COVID, we reached that short-term holder floor. but during that 2019 mini bear let's say we we only got to that mezzanine level if it wasn't for covid we would have probably stayed around that mezzanine level and and slightly moved up again from there but in the bear market you see we can hit that floor a couple of times and so we did that actually in june of 22 we also reached that so again very similar to June 22.

34:51And then, you know, we started moving up, we still had a final leg down that was again, only to the mezzanine level. But as you see, like that floor level moves down also heavily. And so I think this is a very useful chart. And I think so we're now at the mezzanine level, I think we might have another retest in the next, you know, couple of months, maybe or in the next month or so towards that short term holder cost basis, just as we did after June 2022, We kind of hoovered between the mezzanine and short-term molar cost basis a couple of times. But I think it's likely that we'll still reject off that short-term molar cost basis because it's an interesting level in a bear market.

35:28People are actually even then with their investments, and so it's often a reason why they get out of the market. So I think that it's still possible. Of course, those levels will be moving down. and so I think a retest of the short-term-order cost basis and then maybe again another try out to the mezzanine level and then up from there. That is the most probable outcome in my opinion. If you haven't tried out Club Orange yet, then now is the time. It's my go-to place to find Bitcoiners whenever I'm traveling. Club Orange is a social app built for Bitcoiners where you can find meetups and events in your area and find merchants that are accepting Bitcoin.

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37:54That's L-E-D-N dot I-O forward slash WBD. Do you not think that the sort of structure of the market will change the behavior of this though? Because if you look back at the last two times, We hit that lower band. It looks like it was COVID and that was a very quick touch and then straight back up, basically, which obviously a huge, a huge event that affected the world globally, affected the economy. Then we've got the crash after FTX blew up, which was a very Bitcoin sort of crypto specific crash. It was one of those moments where you were like, how deep does this go? How systemic to the entire Bitcoin market is this?

38:31It was like in some ways an existential threat to a lot of the businesses that ran within Bitcoin. We saw so many close down. Like this time is different, I think, in the sense that we have the passive flows in the ETFs. Institutions are here. I think people are probably looking at Bitcoin right now as being very good value. I certainly am. Like, does that not change the behavior of this chart? Yeah, so actually it might. So as I said, like maybe this will be the low since we have passive flows moving into the space. and maybe time-wise we'll still just move around these lower levels but maybe we already sat in the low in in in in that recent rent the february 5th drop like similar to june 2022 like so in in june if it wasn't for fdx we wouldn't have gotten like another lag down you know temporarily uh and but this time around there's also so much macro uncertainty so i i don't know i mean if we are now the the straight of foremost like how much effect will it have on global markets yeah you What if we do get a recession in the next year or so?

39:33Like really a crash in stock markets. That would be definitely enough of a catalyst to have like a potential short, another leg down, let's say, to that mezzanine level and then go back up from there. So I think there's enough uncertainty in the world to function as a catalyst for something like that to happen. Yeah, that does make sense. Like if we see oil go back above$100, the economy start really teetering. It's already at$100, you know. Is it back at$100 today? I just woke up. Okay, it depends on which metric you're looking at. But I think US crude is at 96 or something. And so, yeah, you're right.

40:11Yeah. So, I mean, I think in that scenario, yeah, I could totally see Bitcoin going down further. But I also think it increases the chance of them just doing a mega print. And who knows what happened next? I mean, Bitcoin goes up. So that very much depends. So if Trump is able to resolve this war and, you know, in May, we're going to see changes of the Fed chair and we know that there's going to be like a brick print coming, you know, wars are inflationary. and so uh you know but if if the war could be resolved somehow like before may and then in may we get the print uh you know then maybe indeed we you know we sat in the low and then maybe the february 5th was the low and we started like gradually moving up and maybe into the midterms we won't see a market crash that's obviously what trump is trying to do now if it's going to work i don't know because you know i i don't think he expected uh you know the straight of our most being closed and you know and that's a that's that's a covet similar type of shock to the world's energy supply and so i i don't know how this will unpack yeah we want to see bitcoin go up but not like this um all right let's go on to the next one yeah so i i thought maybe we can talk a bit about where we are in the cycle um since you know we we are exactly within the four year cycle um uh so this is actually the four-year cycle displayed here and it's it showed the days until the having so so cycles are aligned here with the days until the having and that dotted those dotted lines are the realized price which is a you know basic like very key um on-chain metric it's the average purchase price of all bitcoin in circulation right that's the the realized price And so if we line the market, like if we line all these cycles with the realized price, we see that during that bear market bottom formation, which in my opinion, there's a high probability of that to happen in the next couple of months, we fall below that realized price.

42:19and so that that could bring us to levels currently the realized price is around 54k um or you know nearly 55k uh so so you know there's a big reason we could potentially drop below that below 55k still with one more leg down in the next couple of months and so it depends very much on the macro circumstances i agree uh we have passive flows and so we don't have to get there but uh you know i think if you're looking to get into bitcoin it's it's um it probably the the best strategy is to to dca over the next couple of months into bitcoin and uh maybe you catch that another leg down like if you don't okay if we start moving up and we already sat in the low grade but uh yeah i think there's still enough uncertainty in the world for for one more leg down to happen see the thing in this chart that i would fade and i'm willing to put myself out on a limb here and this could age like milk but this would suggest that we have another year of sort of sideways down and i just can't see that happening i could be totally wrong but i can't see that happening my gut doesn't say that's what's going to happen so so to really form the bottom would only take like give and take six months at most um and then indeed to kind of start to recovery which would already be the beginning of a bull market by the way huh so so if we i mean going back to i have a chart on that so going back to that so do you consider the bull market starting the day we hit the lowest print yeah so so i mean i mean this is what we look at like if we if we look at the bull trend then we also start counting from the bear market bottom right so if you get in around that bear market bottom you have a three-year trend like a three-year uptrend an exponential uptrend and so so in a way in the next six months and it could also maybe maybe it will be only before or three uh you know maybe in may we before like when when the print is is going to happen uh you know like so so uh but i think if we once we set in the low in the next couple of months and then we start moving up then in in a way you could look at that already as the start of a new bull market although you don't really know if we're in a bull market yet i mean we really have to move up like above that short tomorrow cost basis get a retest and actually you know stay above it that would be like a confirmation of the start of a boom bullish trend again and so so that's what i'm looking for in the next couple of months but indeed that means that we get a bit more like sideways price action uh for potentially a year because we i mean if we drop to 50 still in in the next three months and then we start moving again up and we'll be around you know maybe 80s 90s in in in eight or nine months or or maybe 10 or 12 months even uh yeah that that would look very similar to previous cycles and i i think that's a realistic outcome i i would take the bet on this one that next next in let's say in two years time if we were to look at this chart i think we will look at this saying this time actually might have been different but this could be pure cope who knows um yeah i mean i agree there's there's i am you know with the business cycle changing and as i said the business cycle is actually coming out of a recessionary state.

45:34But yeah, maybe all these dynamics that are currently going on with the Stradivar Moos closed and the energy supply shock, maybe it moves again back below for some reason. I don't know. Although, yeah, there could be an extended cycle. So maybe we'll only get a mild bear market. As I said, we do also have passive flows. But for me, I mean, the highest probability is to still continue the four-year cycle path. The reason being at most because hype is out of the market. Hype is in AI, hype is in gold, hype is not really in Bitcoin. Then there's all this conflict in the world. And then so, you know, Bitcoin's patience will be tested over the next couple of months.

46:14And some will lose faith a bit, like, okay, maybe Bitcoin is not going anywhere. You know, if we steal another two months of sideways price action, I think, you know, some people will be impatient and, you know, they want to chase profits. And so maybe they also flip to AI again, like many already did. But so I wouldn't be too surprised if we got such a scenario, which is portrayed here in the chart. Fair enough. Okay, let's go on to the next one. Don't sound happy about that one. I'm just, I'm not unhappy about it. I just, there's a lot of dynamics in there that I don't know if I totally agree with the premise on.

46:57I do agree that we've obviously, we've not had the hype, but I wonder if there's people now looking at gold being over$5 ,000. You showed that indicator before the RSI is way up there in the 90s. Does some of that money, does it feel like gold's topping at some point, even if it's only short term? And does some of that money start rolling back into Bitcoin? I think there's a lot of dynamics that you could look at that might suggest something else. yeah i agree so so indeed it is true that um if we look at anything like where would you want to put money gold is heavily overvalued the stock market is heavily overvalued uh but bitcoin is very attractive at these prices and and so um now i don't know how much money necessarily is now chasing uh like this attractive investment you know because it also feels risky we had some of the quantum threats, there's some uncertainty, you know, and then we have all this conflict and then gold is actually performing very well, Bitcoin is not.

47:58And so a bit of loss of confidence, like, oh, is Bitcoin really going to do what it's going to do? But if you really look at the fundamentals, Bitcoin is actually exactly doing what it's going to do. And so I'm super optimistic, actually, about Bitcoin, right? Like, okay, I'm pessimistic about the next couple of months. Not, I mean, I even think we don't necessarily have to get that that like lag down as i said there's passive flows and so maybe we don't and also the the reason the business cycle it has a bit of is extending maybe that also will have an impact on bitcoin and we'll bottom early or this was already the bottom and we started kind of gradually moving up but if we look at the on-chain charts and for example in this one we see such a similarity to previous bear markets you know we see these red lines like the amount of short amount of profits which is shown here you know we it's hard to neglect like it looks exactly like a bear market would and and so yeah for me unfortunately also then the probability is the highest that will continue exactly as how a bear market usually has functioned in the past and and yeah doesn't sound that attractive but I think it's a it's also a big opportunity because uh you know we basically have another few months of checking extremely cheap sats and bitcoin will turn around again i mean we're bitcoin is not going to zero uh it's literally the only hope we have on a better future for humanity and and to even live in peace with ai and and to be all you know and and so i think it's it's it's so it's it's bitcoin is already heavily undervalued and my in my opinion bitcoin is worth uh you know much more than 200k and um And probably will go into the millions.

49:42But yeah, we have to move through this phase. I mean, hype is gone. We have seen this every cycle. Bitcoin has to form a bottom. That takes time. There's a time factor to this. And so it will take a couple of months. But yeah, those months are an opportunity as well. Totally. And I think the place where I might have some disagreement with you, and to caveat this, you're going off data here. I'm going off vibes. and I'm also always ultra bullish is I like it's clear we're in a bear market no denying that we it's just obvious but what I'm unsure of is why it has to necessarily rhyme with previous bear markets in this sort of cycle theory like I because the halving impact is so much smaller than it has been in the past I just don't know what it is about the sort of months of the year that make that mean that Bitcoin has to go down or up I guess that's where I'm coming from yeah and and we saw this i mean getting back to the the cycles uh i mean since the the start of bitcoin bitcoin has moved in this four-year cyclical pattern and of course in the beginning the having impact actually having had a huge impact and that is indeed negligible at this point in time but before uh you know before we had also an eight-year cycle so for example if we look at you know at the the 2008 crash for that to happen that was an eight-year cycle and so i wouldn't necessarily rule out that that maybe we get an extended cycle this time as well of course these four-year cycles are influenced by presidential cycles which are you know based on the four-year period and yeah and so all those dynamics have an effect on the market and so i'm also totally open to for the cycle to change so i'm not saying we will stay within the four-year cycle for the next, you know, we will have that.

51:28I'm not saying we will have two more four year cycles in Bitcoin coming up. So I'm just saying currently, we're still exactly in that four year cycle pattern. And, and so, you know, maybe that will change into the future. Like, as I said, for example, an autumn high this year would kind of disprove or would prove that we would be moving away from it. But currently, there's no such proof yet. And so so we have to kind of assume that it will continue. Now, there are some indicators like the business cycle, which, you know, maybe are a reason indeed to move away from that this time around. But yeah, so far, Bitcoin is not showing any of those trades yet.

52:07We're actually at bear market lows, which we have, you know, every cycle around that midterms year. But I also think an eight-year cycle is possible into the future. You know, dynamics are definitely changing. It feels like so much is going on in the world with trump now and and and so maybe the dynamics of markets will change and will be extended and yeah that's fair enough yeah that would just mean like a a bit more reduced bear market like maybe then the low is in as i said and we could kind of start gradually moving up from here uh so i think that's that's entirely possible fair and only time will tell i guess okay next chart what have we got next these are a little different to normal route i'm enjoying it okay great great we've not had the spiral yet uh no i didn't include a spiral chart yet but uh i mean i mean you want to look at the spiral i can open i can open one if you want but uh it these these are great charts as well they uh they represent the the cyclical behavior in bitcoin for example here we're looking at the on-chain value map um and and this very interesting in my opinion so we we didn't really reach those heavy overvalue levels uh which you see here like that red line in the top uh the red band uh but and so maybe also we won't reach those heavy undervalued levels and here again we see there is still room for another leg down and then so that's what again another reason why i say okay we cannot necessarily rule out that we'll have another leg down but i think if we do that will also be kind of the final nail in the coffin and then we kind and move up from here.

53:46And so basically we have six months to do just that. Now, maybe it doesn't come again because of passive flows. I actually hope it won't. It would be great. That would be exciting for the future as well. Bitcoin is changing. But if we do, it feels very much similar to historic patterns. As much as I want to see Bitcoin go up, I'd take the opportunity to buy 45k Bitcoin. So this is actually the level that I also probably will move some funds back in. It will just be too cheap to leave. I mean, it's like a COVID opportunity, you know? Like we literally saw here, COVID dropping to the heavy undervalued levels.

54:26I mean, it becomes too attractive to buy at such levels. So I also, I think, yeah, if we would drop there, I would become a buyer as well. Yeah, the COVID diff is my proudest buy, I think, because that was a terrifying time. if we sell anything like that ever again i'm just going to be selling everything i possibly can yeah yeah and currently we're having a bit of issues similar to go with like with now for example the energy supply shock 20 of world's energy is going to the straight from us so so that that is uh you know i i don't know um so far it hasn't been like bitcoin has been moving up and been stable but uh yeah i i don't know i will uh we'll we'll see how this conflict will evolve over the next couple of months yeah that's the sell your chairs to buy bitcoin kind of opportunity um cool this i i mean the the funny thing is like this this is the bear market that has least affected me sort of in an emotional sense and that just could be that i've been through these before but you know the the numbers we talk about in terms of percentage up percentage down are just they're a joke now you know where's the 80 drawdown gone this is nothing yeah it's very unlikely to get to a 70 drawdown even and um i've showed i've shared that with my followers i've shared some charts and we actually looked at drawdowns and you know levels that likely would get to and actually we will we'll get to some of those levels in in the next couple of charts um i would i actually made some charts to to look really at how what that bottom formation looks like.

56:00And then again, I'm saying that like, we don't have to get there, but this is kind of, I think it's a, it's a good thing to kind of assume that we might get there. And then if we don't, you know, it will only be good. But, but yeah, I think a 70 % drawdown is very unlikely. We have some on-chain levels and, and, and this has to do also, of course, because we didn't have a blow of top, you know, because we had such a distributed top, we didn't even reach those heavy over value levels. So also, you know, as a consequence, the percentage drawdown is mild. Yeah, I think the thing we've missed in this is that, you know, you spoke about all the retail FOMO in gold and in AI stocks, but like also treasury companies, like so many people were just FOMOing as treasury companies, whereas previously they might have bought Bitcoin.

56:46I think that definitely had a dampening effect on the upside. Yeah, that's actually a great point that you mentioned so um uh i actually recently explained that as well with my followers so there's there's the this was actually like if we talk maybe we can talk a bit about the differences this from this bull market to previous cycles um so in and so we saw a lot of gradual institutional adoption and so instead of um some of that money flowing to spot exchanges like to have an effect on spot price, we actually saw money flowing to indeed treasury companies, for example. And then we had buys from Sailor, but those buys are like most likely true OTC desks.

57:33And so they try to kind of like have a minimum impact on price, you know, like how can we acquire Bitcoin? And, you know, because if you start like buying spot Bitcoin, like 17 ,000 Bitcoin or something, whatever uh you know if you buy that spot it will have like a huge impact temporarily on spot price so you screw yourself right if you're buying like so so you want to make these deals otc and this this is actually what etfs do and with with in-kind redemptions and and also uh you know treasury companies and so in in a way so with this gradual institutional like gradual money flowing into Bitcoin through institutions also means indeed that many of those Bitcoins were bought OTC.

58:18And so there are OGs out there with thousands of Bitcoin and they're happy to take some profit. But yes, and they sell often through these OTC desks. And so this was probably in this cycle the least impactful on spot price. And we also see that. I mean, we had a very distributed price, very distributed price action. We, you know, nothing of the like that we saw in 2017, which was very hype driven, retail hype driven, very spot driven market. And this market was much less spot driven. Yeah. And I guess if you're buying on the spot markets, then you start like liquidating shorts and then you have the volatile moves up and, you know, Bitcoin has to figure out if it can actually sustain the price.

59:05And so like that volatility was all taken out of the market because of the OTC desk is what you're saying, I think. Yeah, so a lot of that spot action, which indeed has much more effect on Bitcoin's price, was now reduced because of OTC buys by ETFs. And ETFs were one of the key drivers and treasury companies of this bull market. And so I think, therefore, also we have seen such reduced price action like to the upside. Yeah, that makes sense. All right. What else have you got for us, Ru? Yeah, maybe we can go a bit into that bottom formation. So we already looked at this chart. So this is basically comparing the current drop like to the June 2022 drop.

59:51And so what we look at here, actually we're going to start combining some of these key on-chain metrics that I already introduced. So here we're looking at the short-term holder floor, which is actually this level of that short-term holder, based on the short-term holder cost basis. So how much of a loss, like what is the maximum loss that short-term holders can sustain? Basically, that's the short-term holder floor level. And then we have the realized price, which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin. And so we just now had the cross of the short-term holder floor falling below that realized price.

1:00:27And if we look where that historically happens, that was around June 2022. too. And so we're like very much the current drop in terms of capitulation. So if we look at capitulation in Bitcoin terms and compare that to previous bear markets, it very much looks like this June 22 event. If we look at the short molar floor versus realized price, it very much looks like the June 22 event. And then we can introduce actually some more metrics. So here, this is actually the low of the on-chain value map. The on-chain value map's low is based on one of my custom implementations of coin value days destroyed, which was originally a metric that Willy Woo came up with.

1:01:13But it has been very accurate in actually setting like a floor for the entire market. And the interesting thing about this metric is that it never moves down. So where we look at short and fuller floor, those bands, they move up and down. But this coin value, they destroy level only moves up. And so that sets the floor. And that's currently, I think, around nearly at 45k as well. And so that will keep on moving up in the next couple of months. And so it's very likely that maybe these high 40s are still within the cards. But I don't think we'll move much lower. And then, as I said, again, falling in repetition here, but these passive flows might be a key reason why we won't even get there.

1:02:01But we still have to assume that we might. There's this probability out there. So what I actually defined this period that we're currently in is the bottom formation. So those are highlighted here by those red bars. so this is actually when the realized price moves in between or when the short term all floor moves in between the realized price and those coin value destroy levels because we see that that we we we actually the the short term all floor moves lower than uh than bitcoin eventually will uh because you know bitcoin starts moving it started actually um moving towards that short molar cost basis again and tries to get back above it in bull territory but the bands still they move much lower and so the short molar floor is a great level to see like okay we're currently at heavy undervalue levels you know if we you know like we saw with COVID for example we dropped to that short molar floor that's a level that you absolutely want to buy at actually it's a it's a it's a short-term floor for for for bitcoin but the eventual floor of the bear market might be lower and historically has reached like levels of coin value days destroyed, which we see here in this chart as well.

1:03:18And so we're currently at the stage where the short molar flow moved between the realized price and that coin value days destroyed level. And for me, that is the period of bottom formation. Now, historically, we see that like, yeah, that takes a couple of months. And so, you know, we're now one month in basically since the February 5th drop. And so we still have a couple of more months to, you know, be in this bottom formation stage before we kind of move back up. It's time to take the opportunity to get some cheap sats. Who knows if he'll go lower, but this is good value right now. Roo, we can't do a show with you without the spiral chart.

1:03:59Come on, let's see it. All right, let me, like, has that chart broken now? Because wasn't the idea that the circles were ever expanding and have we now crossed we have not crossed and i also don't think we will cross in the in the next year and a half i i think the chances of crossing are very very low oh okay let's we need to see this chart okay i got it up so this is the this is the 3d version by the way and so this is actually based on on the on-chain value map i can't tell where we are now where are we now um we're currently here ah okay oh i see this one is not completely updated uh i don't know why it stops so we'd have to go down to check into the reasonable we're actually now below that surface level so so we we're we moved below the surface is actually the fair value that we just looked at the the if we looked at the uh at the value map that uh that green level was always the fair value price of Bitcoin.

1:05:03That is what the surface represents here. And then we have periods of bull markets, which is, you know, the entire bull market, we were above that surface level. And now we move back below the surface. But we'd still have to go a long way down from here for those circles to cross. yeah so so historically we see towards the end of the year that would be and this could be slightly earlier because we see that that because one one full rotation in that spiral is uh represents the period of four years and so um so we see those bottoms uh so for example this was the the 2018 bottom that happened in uh in december you know the price of 3k uh then we had here the 2022 bottom like 16k let's say it was uh it was in november and so like uh maybe now this time in october we'll get a bottom that you know that the spiral chart would actually imply that uh and so we we now moved below the surface already i'm not sure why this is not updated i need to check actually and i'll need to look into that but um but we're now below that surface level we know we are below a fair value and so we're actually a couple months because this this is exactly i mean this one stops here at the end of 2025 i see but we're currently already three months in right so we're three months already below that surface now level now um and and so we still have a couple of months to form that bottom and this is the this is the four what the four-year cycle will look like you know and and i mean so so yes we didn't get to we didn't have a blow off top and we had a bit of like a distributed uh bull market but look at how similar those those green dots were during this whole phase here compared to previous cycles that we that we did that you know that looks very similar now here here was that the halving and this was actually the autumn high before the halving you know the the etf approval that was like a lot of hype that was the first that was a a key difference this cycle we had an autumn high before the halving but there was a clear catalyst you know big reason why we did and so i think that's that's normal so this this was the the halving and so so yeah what's next is we we are now below that surface level uh we form a bottom at some point it could be the february low but then that red dot would be here uh which is kind of still early on the four-year cycle basis it's more likely to happen in the next couple of months so potentially another leg down and then start moving back up uh and you know go to the next halving event the spiral chart is intact the spiral chart is intact yeah root this has been amazing anything else you want to go through with us before we close everything out now everything is always about probabilities and so i don't claim to know what the future holds uh we will see maybe this time is different i'm open to all these scenarios but uh but it is clear that we are in a bear market it's clear that we're undergoing a bottom formation uh you know maybe the february was the bottom, but I still think there's another, like the probabilities are higher that we'll still see one in the next couple of months.

1:08:16It might be a bit reduced due to passive flows. And yeah, we'll see from there. But I'm also up to, I mean, if we start pushing against the short-term holocaust basis and we move back above it, I become a bull again, like short-term bull. I mean, I'm a long-term bull all the time. But, you know, short-term, we have to be realistic. And yeah, I think time is a factor in this bear market. We need to go through. So my message would be, you know, if you're a holler, have patience for a couple of months, and that will be rewarded. Have patience. If you've got any cash flow, double, triple the DCAs.

1:08:55This is the opportunity now. Ruud, thank you so much, man. Where can people go to find out more about your work? Yeah, so you can go to Bitcoin strategy platform.com, or subscribe to my newsletter, which is Bitcoin strategy.substack.com. And you can of course, follow me on, on Twitter and Noster as at the rational route. And, you know, if you follow me, you know, consider becoming a paid subscriber, you will get access to all the live charts, and I will actually keep you give you more info and i'll go through you together like uh to kind of dissect this bear market and where where to enter exactly around that bottom area awesome thank you man i will speak to you soon i'll probably see you in vegas do you want to make a bet on the price by vegas what what um higher or lower than today um vegas that's already next month actually i think vegas might be still higher than today oh that means i've got to take the under i can't be bearish because i i think we're gonna you know potentially we'll we'll might be like around that short term holder cost basis level uh during vegas and so we could potentially like you know uh move back above it but i think there's still a chance that we'll reject off it and then get that get set to low in after so so but the only uh the only price information that's more accurate than the four cyclists that Bitcoin always tanks around the conference.

1:10:30Yeah, exactly. So maybe, you know, there's this potential to reach the short model cost basis and then we reject right at the conference. Well, I can't take the under. I'm too bullish for that. So we'll just have to wait and see. But thank you, man. I will see you out in Vegas. I'll catch you soon. Thank you, Danny. See you in Vegas.

1:10:58Thank you.