Bitcoin Power Law: The End of Exponential Growth | Matthew Mezinskis

27:30Matthew Mezinskis:So it's actually, but again, that's not the world that I would imagine a lot of the purists would like, including myself. So if Bitcoin just turns into an exponential asset, then it's just like everything else. It's like gold. Another possibility, though, is if people start to understand the nature of Bitcoin, the nature of scarce Satoshis, that these can't be printed, that fiat interest might not make as much sense on these scarce Satoshis, which become more scarce and more scarce every year. Then it's possible that Bitcoin as a power curve could pull the entire TradFi exponential curve into power.

28:07Matthew Mezinskis:and that is the mind-bending thing that would be perhaps the philosophical thing with what hyper bitcoinization actually looks like are we on a satoshi standard um the big x factor here and i've said this a lot on my streams big x factor to me and it goes back to what i said at the beginning is the nature of credit because you cannot you cannot it's it's mathematically impossible. I posit this to any mathematician listening to this. Draw me a lone instrument that works in power growth. It does not work in power growth. It's just not the nature of a credit instrument. Credit instruments work in exponential growth.

28:52Matthew Mezinskis:They work in geometric growth, compounding growth, just like the rest of the TradFi system. Why is that? Is that because interest would have to drop constantly? money. Correct. So don't think of an annuity because that's kind of a little bit more complicated, but it's still the same idea. But it's just think about something that just think about the same example I said before. The 10 % growth rate from interest, okay, in your native fiat unit. If you're going to get 10 % every year, every year, every year, you're just going to double every 10 years. Bitcoin doesn't do that. The growth rate of Bitcoin, which is a power growth rate, declines over time.

29:32Matthew Mezinskis:So I've thought about this a lot. I've thought about modeling it and showing it on my stream. I haven't even done it yet. But maybe something like simple interest over the short term could work a little bit. And by the way, this is going to have huge implications for TradFi and for stuff that Saylor's doing, for example, because all his instruments pay a fixed 10%, but Bitcoin is not fixed at a 38 % growth. This is a challenge for him. Again, he's doing wonderful things. I just saw a tweet, maybe from Steven as well, that showed that the last purchases that they just made over the course of a day were more than miners would make with their latest.

30:11Matthew Mezinskis:I don't think it was the Euro interest or the Euro instrument. Maybe it was actually, but which they just released. Anyway, it's amazing the amount of coins that he's accumulating, but he's also accumulating a lot of debt in fiat units that are fixed, fixed, fixed, fixed, constant. And the nature of Bitcoin is it does not grow in a fixed rate. It just does not. I've seen TA TradingView folks try to do these straight lines with Bitcoin on a log scale. I imagine every listener knows that that doesn't work. You just know that when you put that Bitcoin price over the entire life of Bitcoin on log scale, log linear, you get that gentle curve.

30:51Matthew Mezinskis:That's what a power curve looks like on log linear. If you do a log log, you'll get a straight line, but that's a different thing. Does that make sense? It does make sense. So this might be really naive to think that I could even sort of suggest an answer, but would the answer not be just a price interest in sats? uh if you price interest in sats you're uh you can absolutely do that and then we're in a satoshi world um but the nature of the satoshis themselves does not as as everybody knows they do not increase exponentially they don't in fact they decline exponentially which is weird Of course, so there's been a ceiling on how much credit can actually be issued.

31:39Matthew Mezinskis:I mean, theoretically in SATs, unless you want to allow, and by the way, this can totally happen. You can allow certificates in Satoshis, and everybody knows that there's just not enough Satoshis to actually back and those things. So it's open. In my mind, it's open. But for sure, 100%, it would be basically foolish to have, well, before I say the foolish part, for sure, everybody knows that in the TradFi system, there's more and more currency units issued every year. Yeah, on the margin, you might actually have to destroy the money supply a little bit, and we can show you curves of that as well.

32:24Matthew Mezinskis:But most of the time, the money supply increases at 7%, 10%, 12 % per year. And that's a fixed number. So again, the money supply is doubling every seven. In my monetary base, exhibits show that the money supply doubles even a little bit less than six years globally worldwide. So in native unit terms. And so that's how fiat works. Everybody knows that they increase. And then everybody knows, looking at Bitcoin, that's not how Bitcoin works. In fact, Bitcoin declines. The rate of Satoshi's declines exponentially at something like 16 % a year. So every four years, it's 16 % per year, but then it halves.

33:07Matthew Mezinskis:So, I mean, the 16 % a year represents the halving, 16 % declining. satoshis um so that's that's just complete everybody knows that that's a completely different model than what fiat does so um yeah that's that's that's how it looks all right we should get into the chart um and as you're going through this one of the questions i want to know your answer to is if you had to put like a probability on it do you think bitcoin does pull tradfire into Bitcoin or do you think it works the other way around? Yeah. So first, uh, I do think that that's a good way to phrase it. And I haven't heard anybody else in the power crew, uh, phrase that like this.

33:49Matthew Mezinskis:Uh, I've been wanting to talk to Steven and Giovanni and some of these guys, uh, Sina is another very good, um, he's a Harvard, uh, guy that's, that's into the power curve. So if I had to put a probability on it? That's a good question, actually. I'd say right now,

34:13right now, the probability is that Bitcoin gets pulled into the TradFi world.

34:19Matthew Mezinskis:That's just the world that we live in. That's the nature of coercion. It's the nature of fiat money laws. uh but i also think the future is unpredictable gosh and i can i can totally see i can totally see a world where you know the accumulating satoshis for even a government is so important that people understand that you know you can't just keep printing this money it's it's worthless The bonds become less, let's not even say worthless, but let's just say less valuable over time relative to Bitcoin. And so I think it's possible that we could get into a Satoshi world where Bitcoin is still the growth of the network itself is this power curve, sustainable proportionate growth, and everybody starts to accept it, even governments.

35:15Matthew Mezinskis:I absolutely think that is possible. It's the here to there, right? That's the most difficult thing for me to grasp. And I would say anybody's lying if they would tell you otherwise. I mean, I've heard Saylor speak in conferences. I mean, he's even offhand say like, you know, yeah, I would like all the bureaucrats in Washington to see it my way. You know, many of them don't at the moment. And they have, he hasn't said it. I'm now putting words into his mouth, but they have the power basically to court. I mean, you know, who's to say that the United States might not say a couple of years from now your Bitcoin stash is in the national security interest of the United States.

35:57Matthew Mezinskis:We're just going to take that property. That's not a good thing. That's definitely not a good thing. Not for property rights, not for anything. And that's going to give more authority, not in a good way of that term. It's going to give more authority to the dollar if that happens. And it could happen. Again, that's a dark thing to say, but everybody knows that that's been theorized. What Bitcoin Did is brought to you by the massive legends, Iron. The largest NASDAQ-listed Bitcoin miner using 100 % renewable energy. IREN are not just powering the Bitcoin network, they're also providing cutting-edge computing resources for AI, all backed by renewable energy.

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38:28Matthew Mezinskis:and you'll get one week of free hosting and electricity with each hosted miner purchased. This episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Mina. On December 8th and 9th, I'll be in Abu Dhabi for Bitcoin Mina along with 10 ,000 other Bitcoiners. there's an amazing lineup of over 200 speakers sharing bitcoin insights and innovation from all over the world and if you're looking for the ultimate vip experience with exclusive networking plus premium food and drink then grab the whale pass and the whale night party even include surfing so you know i'm going to be there tickets are on sale now use code wbd to get 10 % off at checkout on all past types the website is mina.b.tc and use code wbd for 10 % off and i would guess like from Saylor's perspective, that's why he would want the US government and other institutions getting involved in Bitcoin, because if everyone has Bitcoin, he's not the honeypot.

39:18Matthew Mezinskis:Right. But everybody knows as well, if everybody's involved in Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is, you know, you seriously understand that Satoshis are more and more scarce, less and less prevalent, as far as the mining is concerned every year. That's going to have implications for the money printer. It's going to have implications for how we think about value in the future. And it's really important. Yeah, it's a really big deal. So that's how I actually frame it. And I haven't heard anybody else frame it this way. But in my view, it's either Trad5 pulls Bitcoin exponential. You might see some big Bitcoin numbers there, but that's not that exciting.

39:53Matthew Mezinskis:That's like digital gold in the worst way. Or Bitcoin pulls Trad5 power and we're growing on a sustainable open network that everybody agrees on. And even the people that own the guns in some way are going to understand that they can't buy more guns with printed money. That's how I'd say it. I've said this about 50 times on the show at this point, but something Thomas Pacquiao from PubKey said to me is like, we're all going to be rich and depressed because the project failed. And that seems like the traditional finance world pulling Bitcoin into it, that's the outcome. I saw that episode with Thomas, actually, or one of those.

40:31Matthew Mezinskis:I would agree with that sentiment. I would say that sentiment, what he just said is my, that's another way of saying TradFi pulls Bitcoin exponential. You might like that number. You may like seeing Bitcoin increase at 20 % a year, every year on a trend, but that's not what we don't get the promise of the full promise. Most of us are here for. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Let's do the chart. I want to see it. All right. So here's my website again. Just this is the only chart I have up at the moment. I've read on my website many times, but this is the old power curve. This is log linear. This is just the price of Bitcoin.

41:06Matthew Mezinskis:You can see it on my chart. This is monthly frequency because it's a lot of data. We'll do more detail in a second. Now here's log log. Key thing to understand, and I'll say this one more time, is power curves are straight lines. How you know it's a power curve is a straight line on a log curve. Here, if it was a straight line on log linear, that would be an exponential, but it's not. It's clearly curved. But it's a straight line on log log. That's a power curve. The next thing to understand is, again, you see dates here. You see like 2010 and then further away, 2012. But as we get closer, and this one actually is not short as well, but the dates become compressed, basically.

41:49Matthew Mezinskis:Like 2023 March is very close to 2024 March, whereas here it's like way farther away at the beginning of the the axis so again that's that's the effect of of the nature of putting it in log um but it's important to understand that it's not the dates here that go into the formula the power curve formula it is days it is days since the genesis block and so another way of saying this and i don't think i actually said this part yet uh you can't really derive this from the formula you have to back into this but i like thinking about doubling time. So power curves do not have a fixed doubling time like exponential, but we can still translate this into something like doubling.

42:31Matthew Mezinskis:What does it mean? And the number is 13%. So that's that proportional growth. So you have it here on this chart. It's 13%, 12.7, 12.8%. So what it means is for every increase of 12.8 to 13 % in the life of Bitcoin, the price doubles or the adoption doubles. That's the definition of the power curve as I describe it, as I found it. Other people, if they run numbers, they're going to get very, very similar numbers. So let's describe that now. When Bitcoin was 60 days old, roughly, roughly, and of course we didn't have a price at the time, but roughly what was happening is the adoption was doubling every seven days.

43:14Matthew Mezinskis:Every seven days. For every 60 days, then seven more days, the adoption of the price doubles. When it was 600 days old, the price doubled every 70 days or so. And now we're a little over 6 ,000 days and Bitcoin is doubling every 700 days, aka every two years. So that is, again, another way to describe power growth. Totally different, totally different than exponential growth. Exponential growth, you get that fixed number. You tell me 10 % growth, double every 7.2 years, double every 7.2 years, double every 7.2 years. That's how TradFi works. That's how credit works. That's how banks work. It's not how Bitcoin works.

43:54Matthew Mezinskis:So, so let's, did you have anything there? Yeah, I was just going to say, so based off this, what is the kind of fair price right now? Yeah. So here's the, here's a curve I show every day on my stream. This is, this is the price. We got this out long into the future for fun. and I have here the 10th to the 90th percentile. And I do things, maybe people have seen the quantile regression model that Plan C or Sina have done. There you'll get a nice smooth curve in the back because you're finding different percentiles to meet everything. I like to keep it simple. People like one number. So I like to look at multiples over or under the trend at the time.

44:34Matthew Mezinskis:And to keep the multiples fixed, you get a little wavy action here, but you can still do it smooth in the future. So bottom line is, where are we right now let's just go right now right now as you can see we're under trend all right not much but we are under and um a few things to say so price when i pulled it into the model this morning actually i should have the seventh here no i don't know why i didn't pull in but anyway yesterday's price 101 one. Basically the same price. Yeah, basically the same price. 101. Okay. So the regression itself, the power curve is 119. My curve, some people are going to have a little bit different numbers.

45:18Matthew Mezinskis:Other people are going to have different numbers. But notice that the curve itself, if we look at these percentiles, it's somewhere between the 50th. Sorry, the price, the price is between the 50th and the 60th percentile. So you see 91, 898, and 113, 777 is the 60th percentile. The curve itself is between the 60th and the 70th percentile. And it's about, so that we can actually say that the power curve, interestingly, in Bitcoin's case, is about a two thirds sort of observation. So two thirds of the time, price is actually relative to the trend below it, one third of the time above it. And it's always exciting when it's above it, because first of all, that's a minority of the time.

46:06Matthew Mezinskis:But it's also every day that it's above it, unlike a rigid stock to flow model, which again, we can talk about that. This just adapts over time. So every time we're above this curve, we pull it up a little bit. And every time we're below that black line, we pull it down a little bit. That's just the nature of how it goes. That's the model. That's trying to model what Bitcoin does. So we are a little bit below it. That's not as fun, but we're not much below it. We're in about the 55th percentile. And by the way, 50th percentile means the median. So 50 % of the time, that's the median. So that's where we are, Danny.

46:41Matthew Mezinskis:That's where we are, about the 55th percentile. Again, I just had Checkmate on the show yesterday uh he's very good with the on-chain data looking if is this just a dip not um you know he was even leaning into the idea without fully saying it that this kind of looks like a dip but um you know i'm i'm the same way as him i make disclaimers all the time like i i do not i do not day trade i'm not here to i'm just here to try to resolve the maalox moments a little bit Like bottom line, we're on trend. We're above the median. We're a little bit below the OLS, which is the power law, basically the ordinary least squares, the regression line, which is almost like saying the mean, slightly different.

47:26Matthew Mezinskis:But basically, it's like the mean. It's the best fitting trend that the price has done over the last 16 years. We're slightly below it. Now, we look at these numbers. Let's see how far we could dip. So just before we do that, can I just throw a couple of questions at you? Can you just zoom right out so we can see the entire history of Bitcoin on this? Yep. So when I look at this, obviously like 2013, 2017, 2011, there's these big peaks like way above that median line. And then if you go to sort of the last few years, we're staying much closer. Is this just like Bitcoin maturing? And will it remain closer to that line as the sort of lifecycle of Bitcoin increases?

48:11Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah. So it seems to me that I'm about the last person standing that still says, I'm not saying that the cycles are not over, but I find it curious or interesting that I've seen so many long-term Bitcoiners saying the cycles are over, the cycles are over. TradFi is here. Bitcoin IPO moment, which I actually like that analogy a lot. I thought that was a great piece. It's a great analogy. I agree. I agree. I agree. And yet, and yet we still have these statistics. I would say, you know, let's talk in six months. All right. Maybe it's a little bit longer, maybe a little shorter. But if in six months, this, you know, nice little green shaded area of the price growing in power terms is still between roughly, I don't know, the four and the eight here.

49:01Matthew Mezinskis:That is the 40th percentile and the 80th percentile. Then I would say cycles are over or at least definitely the four year cycle is over. But it's funny. I think I'm like, I'm not on Twitter so much, to be honest, so it might not be. But I've been saying every day on my stream, I'm not going to call it that it's over until it's over. And, you know, I know some people have done the math, like from trough to peak, we've now passed the average days, you know, of all the prior cycles together. I get all that. I get it. but like you said, uh, every time there's been a pump and it's true that this double pump in 20, uh, 21 was kind of weird, but every time on this chart, we've been above the 90th percentile, which is fun.

49:47Matthew Mezinskis:It's fun times. It's, it's certainly Maylock's moment for a lot of people, but we've had it. So I have not, uh, I'm not saying I know for sure this, this does not tell you timing. It just tells you relative risk. So I'm not saying that cycles are over, the four-year cycles are over, but I'm also not saying that they're not over. The hard thing with this though is like what makes a cycle? Like what does it have to do to classify as like a typical four-year cycle? Because again, on this chart, like it's barely been above the trend line this time. And so like if we do go into a bear market, you would imagine that it's not going to be as volatile to the downside.

50:25And does that mean the cycle's over or is that still the cycle continuing? Like this is where I think it gets tricky.

50:31Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah, no, yes. And yes. I mean, again, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be too complicated with it. I think you're right. Yes. And yes. If we don't have a huge boom, probably not a huge bust. Although again, never say never, no one knows. But here you can clearly see this was the start of the ETF run, right? So the ETFs were approved January, February, 2024. and you can clearly see and James had verified this with a lot of the old coins. They really came to life here and then for sure here. All right, when we got over 100K and the Trump pump and then you have, you know, Liberation Day dump and we're back up again, but we're now, there's a lot of softness.

51:09So I totally understand

51:12Matthew Mezinskis:and I would empathize with the idea that the cycles are over. It's totally possible. I'm just saying that's a lot of softness Every time, every time we've been this 18, 20 months after the halving, eventually grandma gives a lot of money to her grandkids to buy Bitcoin. I know it's a narrative. I know it's, you know, I'm not looking at any trendline analysis. I'm just saying this is the, I am looking at trendline analysis. I'm not looking at TA analysis. I'm not looking at whatever they call the impulses and the ABC correction, all this Elliott Wave stuff, which I've heard some of these gold bugs for years on these newsletters, like this Robert Prechter guy, this deflationist, this Elliott Wave deflationist guy.

51:55Matthew Mezinskis:Like, it was never right. So I never put much stock into that stuff. But bottom line, sorry, I get all these tangents. I think it's possible. I think it's possible that we could have a nice boom here at the end of the year. Here's another thing, which is fun. Fernando, my old co-host, and I, about five years ago, we interviewed, I was just thinking about this this morning. Now I'm blanking. It's not Jim Rogers, but who's the other guy, guy that lives in Asia? Mark Faber. It was Mark Faber. We interviewed him, the famous Asian bull, Western bear, and he was so angry. I mean, as a lot of those guys, so angry, like, where is our gold run?

52:40Matthew Mezinskis:And of course, he says crypto. he doesn't say Bitcoin, but he's like, all this money is going into crypto. It's not going into gold. That's a very famous sort of sentiment of gold bugs over the last 10 years. I think they're having their time to shine now. And I want to show you the same chart in gold ounces. This is even more fun. The funny thing about that is I feel like Bitcoiners are doing that now, complaining all the money's going into gold and all the money's going into like AI stocks. Precisely. And they're they're right actually i think it's true so there's real rotations here uh you know old bitcoiners giving those coins away to ibit and to new wall street investors and uh old bitcoiners probably moving into uh to to gold or to ai um or just gold finally catching up from you know regular trad five people thinking okay bitcoin's done or whatever this softness it's not maybe the four-year cycles not happening.

53:35Matthew Mezinskis:So all those narratives are actually, to some extent, true. But here's what's very interesting. If we look at the power curve in terms of gold ounces, Bitcoin price in gold ounces, it's very similar. So 95 % are squared. That means 95 % of the time, the price moves around this line better than just a straight line average, which is obvious. That's the scientific definition of it. And we can see here that we are super cheap as far as Bitcoin priced in gold. So unlike here in the dollar chart, where we're just below trend and we have been hovering around trend basically for the last two years here, we haven't hit the trend line since 2022.

54:18Matthew Mezinskis:All right. And it makes sense right at $4 ,000,$4 ,000 plus gold. And the actual price as of, let's call it the sixth, 25.39 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The trend is 63. So almost a third, almost a third. I'm looking at this and I'm seeing from a gold bug's perspective, Bitcoin is on the trend, some of the cheapest that it's ever been. All right. We are at look at look at the percentiles now. 2026. Let me get back to the number. Twenty five point three nine ounces is under the 20th percentile, which is point four X the trend and above the 10th percentile, which is point three X the trend, which is 22 ounces.

55:04Matthew Mezinskis:So in other words, extremely cheap. And yet and yet for as soft as you might think Bitcoin is relative to gold. Let's go back to 2022 to the puking, the SBF, Terra Luna, all the disaster of the weak hands in 2022. How many ounces of gold do you see there? The actual prices? 9.7? Yeah. So we are still nearly three times the value of gold from 2022. 2022, that to me shows enormous power curve growth for Bitcoin. The growth is still very strong, very fast, even though right now it's very weak relative to the trend. In other words, I really wonder how much longer the gold bugs, which are very similar.

55:56Matthew Mezinskis:There's a lot of overlap, obviously, in these markets. Totally. I wonder how much longer they're going to hold their gold and see Bitcoin get to these cheap levels. So you think there's going to be a big rotation from gold to Bitcoin if he puts money. I do. I personally do. Because again, it's just statistics. It is possible to say that gold really has been, I'm not using this as a real market manipulation term, but let's say suppressed over the last 15 years. It's just been out of favor. People are finally getting it. China's buying. A few things that don't jive with that, in my view. First of all, government buying, which is the biggest buyers of gold, government gold holdings, is at the same very light 1.2 % trend since 2008.

56:40Matthew Mezinskis:If you do a trend line, I have this chart, I can pull it up. If you do a trend line on all the official gold ounces that governments have, it's not that much. I mean, it's increasing. It has been increasing since the GFC in 2008, 1 % to 2 % per year. That's the same. So where is this appetite coming? Where is this increase in the price coming? What also happens with the gold market and actually with any market, but not Bitcoin, which is great for Bitcoin, is we have the supply and demand functions. You know, with Bitcoin, the supply is rigorous to the protocol because of the difficulty adjustment.

57:18Matthew Mezinskis:The balance sheet budgets every 10, the balance sheet balance, the budget balances, that's what I should say. The budget balances every 10 minutes with Bitcoin. With gold, there's a lot of dislocation always. And it's always overshooting or undershooting. For example, a high gold price is going to bring in a lot of jokers to the gold industry, a lot of people that didn't care about it forever, but now care about it. Old mining projects that were completely unprofitable at$1 ,000 an ounce look pretty good at$4 ,000 an ounce. And that can work for a time, but there is still this mean reversion, which I don't see gold being immune from.

58:02Matthew Mezinskis:Bitcoin is immune from that. We have a number of gold technology for Bitcoin, but gold is not immune to that. So, and by the way, here's the number. Again, I have all the charts, but it's almost better to just talk about it. I think one of the really interesting things that's happened in gold this year is that like Bitcoin, this, if you want to call it a cycle, cycle has not really attracted that much retail interest. But gold has had the retail FOMO. I'm sure you saw the pictures. I think it was actually in Australia. There was like a huge queue out into the street like a gold bullion place to like people literally queuing up in the street to go and buy gold yeah bitcoin has seemingly flown under the radar nice i did not see that um makes perfect sense and and yeah um let me just show you you like this so just while you're pulling that chart up one of the things that this has made me think getting back to the cycles thing is i think your sort of power law take on this actually plays into a lot of the cycle people's play, which is that like a lot of people have said, maybe cycles aren't over, maybe they're elongating.

59:07And elongating is basically just saying power law. Yeah.

59:11Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah. Well, the power law, again, it doesn't, it actually doesn't predict the time. It just predicts, it just tells you the risk. So right now, theoretically in dollar terms, we're at fair value in gold. We're cheap. If you have gold, Bitcoin's looking pretty cheap. And again, I just want to harp on that point. It would be just statistically an anomaly if Bitcoin goes back to, say, 10 ounces of gold, like it was in 2022, right? I mean, that's just, that's completely different. And that's not what the markets project, let's say, for the long term. And so here's the example of projecting for the long term.

59:52So here's gold over 55 years.

59:58Matthew Mezinskis:Now, a lot of people, when they do trends of gold, just so you know, and I'm sure you've seen this, they pull like$35 an ounce in August 1971, and it was actually 42. That's a statutory rate at the time. That's what the US still values their gold at is 42 bucks an ounce. So they take this, and then they take the price today. And they get a number that's pretty gangbusters right now. It's still not over 10%. I don't actually know the latest. It might be closer to nine or something right now. If you do the compound growth, that exponential growth. But that's cheating a little bit because you're ignoring the peaks, the troughs.

1:00:30Matthew Mezinskis:What you got to do with all this stuff, and this is one of the things that really harp on my channel, is it's not about picking peaks and troughs and everything. It's take the trend. Take the trend. And okay, so here's a very beautiful, perfect, exponential trend line slicing through the gold market on log scale. This is what we talked about at the top of the show. This is all TradFi works like this. So what's the slope of that trend? 5.3 % CAGR. It's actually not that much to write home about. Now, it might be better. It might in the future, but let's look where we are now relative to literally the max that we've ever seen.

1:01:03Matthew Mezinskis:We're not there yet and we could get there. I absolutely think we could get there, but we didn't get there in 2011. And it's possible that we could do something like this. Like this, this was so early in the data that, you know, getting. So what I'm what I'm to be clear, what you're seeing here, this this line didn't exist at the time. So what you're seeing is sort of the evolution of how the trend would grow. But it was always this red line is 2.54x the trend at the time. So it's possible that right now we could just blow through this and to keep us at our 2.54x the trend, which is 100. You know, that's basically the the max observation.

1:01:42Matthew Mezinskis:We could do that here. we could pull even higher i could totally see a world where it goes i think that what was the price there about five thousand dollars uh yeah five five thousand is that number so five thousand is the number it gets to five thousand dollars yep but let me show you now and i have a chart like this for ai as well or basically the top tech stops tech stocks in the u.s let's just look at this period which is from actually not even this period just from this period from 2022 too. It's the best R-squared, the fastest trend line I can show you for gold, the most favorable, the Peter Schiff curve, basically.

1:02:17Matthew Mezinskis:And it's right here. You started here, actually, in December. No, October. Where did I start it? October 2023 at that dip and then grow. It's a curve that Peter Schiff has been waiting his whole life for. It would be amazing, all the rest. Let's see how long it would take to get through the all-time trend, top-level observation ever. It would be$5 ,351 an ounce. That would be the number. So totally possible we can get there, right? I'm absolutely saying it's possible. What is highly improbable, and we can show this with the market cap of gold, it would be like the size of the US debt by 2038 or something.

1:03:03Matthew Mezinskis:What's highly improbable is that we go, again, compound growth, 41. I didn't even say, what's the slope of that curve? 41.3 % CAGR. That's what Bitcoin does right now. And Bitcoin's slowing. So for that just to keep up, you're at$100 ,000 gold by 2035. Peter Schiffer loved this. It's just tiny compared to gold. That makes no sense. Precise. It makes no sense. It just doesn't make any sense. And you have to think about the supply and demand dynamics that I said. They say in the commodity industry, it's like the cure for high prices is high prices. The cure for low prices is low prices. But it's depending on your perspective.

1:03:45Matthew Mezinskis:So if you're a consumer, the cure for high prices is high prices. Because if you just want to buy gold or you want to buy jewelry or whatever, you know, if prices stay so elevated relative to the cost of mining, you're just going to get more entrance into the market, more competition, price will come down. conversely if prices are so low relative to uh to uh mining then you're going to get more producers uh coming in and uh you know figuring out or sorry you're getting more consumers more consumers coming in and buying until the price rises so that's the that's that dichotomy right so the cure for high prices is is uh is high prices in the case of gold so like it's a long-winded way of saying I don't see this lasting, let's say, more than, I don't know, two years, three years.

1:04:36Matthew Mezinskis:It totally could blow through the old record, which would be$5 ,300 an ounce, maybe it goes to$10 ,000, maybe it goes to$15 ,000 on this trend. It would only take till 2029. At some point, the numbers are so wacky compared to all the other base level things like government balance sheets. It wouldn't hold in my view. Even if it makes it to 2029, it's not going to make it to 2039 on that curve. Right, precisely. So it's going to go back to this. It's going to revert to the mean at some point. Have you ever done a log-log power law on gold? No, it wouldn't fit. actually no i have let's see if i i can pull it up for you uh just to show you how it does not fit so here's a power curve on gold now i can't log log is sort of bad on my software here i can do it at my break yeah so here's log log all right don't watch these dates here it's annoying the tooltip will be correct but um basically you're you're spread out way here back in the 70s you're there's a lot of distance between points and then as we go here you compress and compress see that it's a straight line right it's log log straight line it's a little bit weird because of the a little bit not straight here but basically it's a straight line this is this is a power curve right so but taking that off you get that gentle curve which is faster at the beginning you can see it doesn't fit well for gold yeah um actually r squared's better than i would think relative to the exponential because the exponential seven bitcoin mom right it's nothing like it and also it just it's not it's not doing that um nothing in the gold environment makes sense that like gold increases gold ounces come out of the ground at 1.8 percent per year that's pretty been a fixed number for about 200 years that's exponential growth it's compound growth it's just like the rate of interest so yeah i could keep going on all these topics what should we cover next the the thing that i would be interested in is your read on the ai stuff that's happening right now because there's a lot of people calling for like a huge bubble in that like i want to know what your data says yeah so i would say the exact same thing that i this analysis i made for gold is going to happen with ai um again i don't know the true uh let's say stabilized cost for building a data center that would make sense.

1:07:08Matthew Mezinskis:That's not crazy. But what I can tell you right now is if you look at the... Here's the top eight market caps of US stocks, including Broadcom and Nvidia, which are two chip makers, which obviously are going gangbusters right now. Here's the top eight market caps in the world. tech, US tech. I think TSMC might be bigger than a couple of these companies, but I'm just sticking with US tech. So we're at 23.2 trillion. That right now is the top eight. Yeah, 23.2 trillion dollars. Look at this. On Liberation Day, earlier this year is 15 trillion. Before Liberation Day, when Trump got elected and everybody thought he was going to save the world.

1:07:57Matthew Mezinskis:18 trillion. So higher. It went from 18 down to maybe even 13, 13.8. And then, you know, just back two years into the Biden administration, it was 6.8 trillion total, total. So let's put some trend lines on this and I'll show you. Okay, so the same deal. Let me know if you have a question on this while I'm pulling up the chart. that's all good i just i just uh i need to see these trend lines on it yeah so you can see obviously you know booms and busts and may locks moments for everybody it's just exponential growth crazy days um here is the from 2008 trend line it's very good trend 98.7 r squared i'm putting this on log scale already just to show you straight lines this is this chart It's just total, total, total eight stocks, you know, Amazon, Google, Meta, NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom.

1:09:03Matthew Mezinskis:Here's the CAGR. It's a pretty great CAGR, 24.3%. You know, if you bought, and even before this, you bought Apple in 2000, Google obviously in 2004, you're happy. All right. But still, huge deviations can happen from the mean. You know, you have the pandemic silliness here, meme stock trading. And then Liberation Day takes you well below. I mean, it can be crazy, but it's clearly an exponential relationship, not like Bitcoin, not like Bitcoin. All right, now let's do that same thing we just did with gold. Let's go to the hundredth percentile. First of all, notice it's much tighter than gold, right?

1:09:35The old gold one was like,

1:09:38Matthew Mezinskis:you know, gold went through a long bear. So anyway, this is a, you know, it's pretty, this is why they say the trend is your friend. Like, I'm not, I'm not saying if you want to, and Bitcoiners do this, by the way, If you want to throw some money into some tech stocks and take some 2011 sat gains in dollar terms, whatever, never financial advice on my channel. But it's much tighter. And we're actually not there yet. So this is the max max. Now, notice how tight this is. It's only 1.37x. The trend will be the record. We're not there yet. But let's draw the, like we did the Peter Schiff trend. And let's catch the best trend over, I think I did here.

1:10:22Matthew Mezinskis:Actually, I can't remember. Let's pull it up. Yeah, good. I took it here, not just Liberation Day. So same deal, basically. The last two years, you know, ChatGPT came out, started 2023. Same deal. Massive growth. And indeed, about the same as gold and Bitcoin at the moment. 41 % CAGR. So how long can that go? How long can that go? Well, here it's a little bit longer, actually, to reach the maximum. I'm not saying that this red line needs to be hit, by the way. Again, this is just statistics. If we think AI is a crazy boom, if we think it's all it's cracked up to be, and a lot of people don't think that, right?

1:10:57Matthew Mezinskis:They think it's overrated, and chat GPT seems to get worse and worse every day, taking longer and giving more insane answers. But if you think that it is going to be a sea change, a narrative change, okay, well, where would be the level that that would outstretch the prior trend? The level in terms of market cap of these companies is right here. It's about, I told you right now, they're about 23 trillion. So sticking on that same trend line of the last two years, when Chad GBT came out, that would take us to 35 trillion. So we need to go up$12 trillion in market cap, which by the way, you know, again, you could have huge booms, huge busts, but that's the number.

1:11:41Matthew Mezinskis:And then, of course, the question remains, how much longer could that go? Would that be a new trend? Would we settle in? I don't know all the answers to those questions, but this could run. This could run. I'm absolutely not saying that it will not. But then you just got to start asking the question, is a 41.1 % CAGR in the top tech companies in the world, is that sustainable? Does the cost make sense? Does the data centers make sense? Does the electricity consumption make sense? Some people think that it is. It seems that Wall Street is way more bullish on TradFi than it is on Bitcoin, even at this moment.

1:12:21Matthew Mezinskis:So I'm just going to have to see. but again I try to harp on the same ideas on my stream just draw a trend line to understand where we've been which is here on the max level and where we could go which is here and then we'll see and I would say caution would be advised if we get to a$35 trillion industry in 2027 and ChatGPT still seems as bad as it is today. So, you know, again, I got nothing against them. It's just whatever. The thing that I'm interested in there is like the, I think it was around$35 trillion where it crosses the line. I wonder if in, before this reverts, if it gets to the size of being bigger than the U.S.

1:13:14debt, that would be interesting.

1:13:17Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah, it would. um the i mean i don't know how the parallels it would be fun to run some analyses on like what they pay in taxes and tax receipts and stuff that would that would be interesting but i don't have that that data yet um what i can tell you with the gold back to the gold one uh is it gets very silly let's actually yeah that one's that one's way more crazy than the tech stocks right but I can even show you in market cap. The lesson from this, I think is sell gold, sell tech stocks, buy Bitcoin. That's my financial advice. Never financial advice for me, but yeah, you can. Here, here's the official holdings.

1:13:58Matthew Mezinskis:This is another reason why I'm not so, again, I got no problem with gold. It's fine to hold some gold. I know a lot of people in Bitcoin hedge with some gold. But if you look at something like this, this is the official holdings, all right, in dollar terms. Same deal, same chart. I got a long and a short trend. All right. So this is worldwide central bank and treasury holdings of gold. Okay. From the 70s. Very similar. It's going to move with the price, right? right now we're at records three this is actually only of july it's probably it's going to be a little bit higher than this it's four trillion right wait tell me what i'm looking at here sorry i missed that yeah you're looking at so central banks hold about 1.1 billion ounces of gold i like to think in ounces not in tons i know like world gold council talks in tons but there's six billion ounces of gold available worldwide jewelry bullion coins bars seven billion has been mined throughout humanity so that uh extra billion is usually uh i chalk it up to industrial or losses no one knows exactly but it's something like that so six billion is available 1.1 now it's getting close to 1.2 billion ounces is owned by central banks okay see that's a number that i could imagine going up a lot it's not it's not though this is the thing this is the funny thing so here's the lifetime trend all right the lifetime trend um and actually i didn't i should have done it from 2008 this is actually you're going to think it is going up a lot and it is but it's relative to the price i need to show you announces which i can show you in a second so anyway this is let's look at the lifetime trend of all central bank gold holdings out to say 2050.

1:15:56Matthew Mezinskis:All right. Can you read that? So it's 6 ,900 billion, 7 ,000 billion. That's 7 trillion, right? 1 ,000 billion is a trillion. So$7 trillion. That's the whole world, central banks, not just the US. And it's well smaller than the US debt today, which is going to grow. So that actually makes theoretical sense. Again, if we think in exponential, things grow constantly makes sense now let's look at this gold price growth explosion it starts to look insane even by let's say yeah 2035 you're at 70 86 85 billion dollars of just just holding gold of an explosive gold price yeah that's crazy it doesn't it doesn't seem to make sense and you're going to start to get to numbers that are already bigger than the united states debt.

1:16:48Matthew Mezinskis:So again, I would love for everybody to just go on a gold standard and we buy gold, but we all know that's not going to happen. And it was already completely centralized after the first year of World War II. Most of the gold went into the United States. So with that chart, though, like the kind of obvious questions putting our conspiracy theorist hat on is like, you're relying on central bank data here. Who knows if the US has the gold that they have? And who knows if China has way more gold than they have. Like, how reliable do you think this can be?

1:17:21Matthew Mezinskis:I think it's, it's a fairly, it's a fairly good picture, but I totally understand, you know, GATA has all this, they've been talking about it for years that the US, most of the gold that you see on the US's books, which by the way, isn't even marked to market. They put it at 42 bucks an ounce so they can have more room for the treasuries that they hold with their printed money. But they say that, you know, they have it all. Maybe they don't. Fort Knox hasn't been audited since the Eisenhower administration. All that stuff I think is true. But the more important thing is just that gold is notably failed.

1:17:55Matthew Mezinskis:I mean, again, I say this as someone who has no problem with gold, but it has just failed in the, you know, the what's the what's the Bitcoin word I should use, or the Taleb term, anti-fragile. It's just not. It's been centralized. So here's another reason why I don't necessarily think gold's going to the moon. The biggest buyers of gold have been buying. And by the way, the euro area holds the most, which hasn't changed in really, it's gone down a little bit from when the euro started. But this was a big thing that Germany did when they decided that they agreed to come on the euro. So we got to back it by gold.

1:18:38Matthew Mezinskis:So it is officially backed. It was at least 10 % to start even more, maybe here, 15. I think it's still maybe something like 10. The dollar, which again, they might not have. So the euro and the dollar. So at least the Western nations do have it, IMF, which the US controls. And then people always talk about, okay, Russia, China, India, they're going to be the big buyers or they're going to be the big, you know, uh, uh, drivers of gold demand. First of all, they're not that small. They're not that big. They are small. So I'll take away the Europe, United States, IMF, and Switzerland. All right.

1:19:16Matthew Mezinskis:So we don't have the rest of the world. It's growing here, but this is, it's not like in my view, this is, you know, justifying such a insane price as of recently. And if you did a trend here, I don't have it on this chart, but if you went from, say, here, which is confusing because I have dollars and ounces, but basically this amount, which is something like 220 million ounces for these emerging market players in the rest of the world, 220 million ounces from 2008, the GFC. It has gone up. It has indeed gone up. But you're at 400, maybe not even 400 million ounces. I should have the total here.

1:19:58Matthew Mezinskis:So 220, 230 to 400. If you do a compound on that, an exponential growth trend, it's less than 2 % a year in actual ounce buying. again we just talked about how gold is growing at 40 on a trend over two years the actual price how does that correlate with central bank buying which is two percent a year or less it doesn't square so i'm not interesting yeah i'm not a big believer that this is gonna change the world yeah because like the narrative that i mean i don't follow gold closely but the narrative i see on like twitter and stuff is that this is like china central bank buying a of gold that's driving the price up like if it's not the central banks what do you think is causing the price probably the uh rotation that you know uh mark faber was depressed about five years ago and all the gold bugs were depressed about five to ten years ago that we got no action sideways movement from gold since 2011 uh you know it was let's just go back to the long-term trend it was it wasn't like even off the trend, but it's just, you know, it's just, it's, it's just markets, right?

1:21:09Matthew Mezinskis:They spring, uh, you can have, you can have a lot of movements and if you can catch that momentum and you can draw lines on the wicks, all power to you. I just prefer to look at things relative to the overall rate of change. Gold is pretty hot right now. It could stay hot for another two to three years. But at some point, the numbers are so insane. Like central banks, basically, if this is what it is, then governments can just keep printing money and just hold the gold that they have. And Bob is your uncle, as the Brits like to say. As we know, that's just not how markets work. and the numbers are just, you know, I guess you could theorize that in 10 to 20 years, either we're going to go back to a gold standard or we're going to go on a Bitcoin standard, okay?

1:22:08Matthew Mezinskis:Or we'll have a little bit of both. Maybe central banks will start to hold more gold and more Bitcoin. That's fine. But still, relative to the mining cost, relative to the sales price, it's like AI valuations. It's just so silly after some time. That it eventually has to revert. Yeah, but it can go. Look, I'm not saying... We can go... Look here. I mean, it can go by 2030,$20 ,000 an ounce. That's possible. But with the nature of compounding at 40 % per year, like something will break somewhere in the system here. Like that's reverting to a gold standard or something. I guess the bullish thing for Bitcoin here is that if this isn't like a huge geopolitical shift, if it's not central bank stacking tons of gold and it is just a trade, like at some point you would expect a rotation back to things like Bitcoin.

1:23:00Matthew Mezinskis:And more importantly, I don't see anything in the buying now that reflects the price action, that justifies the price action. It's the same old central bank buyers that have been buying since 2008. You know, Russia is like a client state of China now. I mean, Russia is issuing bonds in Chinese yuan. Did you see this? No, I didn't. That's insane. there's now russian government bonds denominated in chinese yuan and they're going to force you know russian banks and clients to hold them like that's it's such a disaster that's wild state yeah so you know and you know good luck convincing at least the same people to buy those so it's it's not it's nothing it's it's it's continuation of the past yes china's getting stronger they also got demographic problems you know we can talk about the geopolitics all day long, but it's probably more important things to talk about.

1:24:01So maybe quickly before we do close out, we should talk about Bitcoin becoming the world's biggest base money. I know it's been close. I'm sure the price action in the last few weeks has dropped that down a little bit, but maybe it's worth just very quickly explaining what base money is as sort of like cash in this economy. And then maybe just put into context like the scale of Bitcoin, because I think it's really easy to not understand how close Bitcoin is to the US dollar in this.

1:24:27Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah, let's do that. So I made a tweet of this. Yes, I did see this tweet, but I've not really gone into it in detail. So walk us through it. Explain what's going on here. So I'm showing a snapshot of only America's money supply, which is based abroad, which is base money to M3 back in 2015 to 2025, June. In 2015, there was$22 trillion of total US money supply, total dollars in all different savings accounts, checking accounts, time deposits, repurchase agreements. And in 2025, June, we have 40. All right. So nearly a double. And if you remember our compounding, a double in 10 years is a 7.2 % CAGR.

1:25:17Matthew Mezinskis:So that's roughly what the total money supply is doing. I'm also layering in Bitcoin. So Bitcoin, you see here, incredible uh four billion dollars in 2015 june all right and that was the the crypto winter as they called it but uh i know bitcoiners don't like that word um 2025 june all right we have uh we have 2.13 trillion dollar valuation okay and we've gotten close to 2.3 so what i try to talk about a lot as well. So the power curve, I look at it, if I could do a broad statement about two main pieces of my research is the power relationship that Bitcoin has, you know, to itself, to the hash rate growth, address growth, price adoption.

1:26:07Matthew Mezinskis:There's this power relationship that can ground us and make us, you know, help us understand what Bitcoin does. There's also, of course, the trad fi world, the money supply. Bitcoin is money. So how does that fit in? I still believe that at the moment, the power growth, the power relationship of Bitcoin to itself, to its price over time is 95 % of the story. 95%. 5 % is the Fed, interest rates, the economy, deficits, taxes. Yeah, it's just too small. It's just too small to affect it at the moment. And you can still see that here. OK, so again, even at 2.1 trillion. And by the way, this is only America.

1:26:47Matthew Mezinskis:This is, you know, the European Union has a similar breakdown, a little bit smaller. The euro, the yen, the yuan, you know, Russia's shitty currency. They all have broad money supplies, which is deposits, which are representations of value that people give to the banks. And then the banks hold assets, which are loans. That's how the banking system works. And all of that is a compounding function with a rate of growth, an interest rate of growth year on year. So it's going to grow. It's always going to grow. Bitcoin's going to grow and fiat's going to grow. um the most economically comparable money supply to bitcoin is what's called base money okay so it's here and that's just like cash in the economy right yeah so i i try to literally show you exactly so what it is is it's bank reserves all right which is what banks hold this is like the bank account with the fed that's what that sorry this is the bank's bank account with the fed it's a master account.

1:27:48Matthew Mezinskis:It is digital. It's the main account. Okay. So it's bank reserves. Also the vault cash, you know, banks, even though it's kind of weird, they do hold a little cash still. It's not much. Not enough. Yeah. Not enough. Not enough. And then in cash and circulation, which is cash outside the banks, you know, in grocery stores, in retail shops, in your wallet, in a safe under your mattress, whatever. These three things, bank reserves, vault cash and cash in circulation, total base money. And in the US right now, if you look at it here in 2025, we got 3.357 bank reserves, 85 billion vault cash, 2.3 trillion.

1:28:27Matthew Mezinskis:Did I say 3.35 billion? 3.3 trillion bank reserves, vault cash, 85 billion, 2.3 trillion cash. All right, you're getting somewhere a little over 5.5,$5.6 trillion in base money. Okay, 10 years ago, it was 3.7 all right so it grows uh then you have m1 okay so you have m1 is actually the only money supply that overlaps with a so you notice if you can see these shaded things here yeah this one's kind of purple that's because there's an overlap so cash and circulation is also called m0 that plus your demand deposits is m1 so that's m1 money a lot of people like say oh bitcoin's m1 money. It's not at all M1 money.

1:29:12Matthew Mezinskis:Yes, the cash in circulation is bare. That's very much relatable to Bitcoin, but demand deposits have nothing to do with Bitcoin. So demand deposits are a representation of wealth that someone deposits with the bank. The bank turns around, loans it, tries to make interest. They may or they may not. But that's not anything what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is a UTXO on Bitcoin is bare. It's final. It's just like the cash part, but it's not at all like demand deposits. So anyway, M1 is M0, which is also part of the monetary base, plus demand deposits. That is M1. M1 is demand deposits plus M0. All right.

1:29:52Matthew Mezinskis:You can see here back in 2015, it was about 3.7 trillion. Today, after the massive stimulus of the pandemic, people still have a lot of cash. It's over 10, it's about 10 trillion, $10 trillion. Yeah. So that's M1. Then M2, you got the biggest stack, savings deposits. That is$7 trillion in 2015, 8.8 today. All right. Then you got retail time deposits. People know that, right? That's when you actually explicitly put your money in the bank for a specified term. That was$500 billion back in the day, 10 years ago only. Now it's a trillion. So there you go. It's a 7.2 % CAGR per year in growth. You got retail money market funds.

1:30:37Matthew Mezinskis:That's basically like a stable coin, but it's basically brokerage account money. 600 billion 10 years ago. Today, 2.1 trillion. All right. And then M3 money. Now, no one on Twitter posts about M3 because the Fed doesn't use it anymore. So people in their broadest representations, they like to do charts of M2 all the time. That's not the total money supply. It has to be M3. They stopped telling you what that was. The Fed stopped telling you what that was in February 2006. six. Conveniently, two years before the crisis. There's two things that are important in M3 that they stopped. So first is repurchase agreements.

1:31:15Matthew Mezinskis:Repurchase agreements are basically like treasuries that trade like cash. It's people levering up treasuries. It's like you put liquidity in your, I don't know, your Kraken or your Coinbase account and you trade with leverage. That's what people do. They're posting a treasury bond, hedge funds, posting a treasury bond with the money market fund and trying to short or do something else more aggressively. And the money market fund in return for allowing that, giving them that liquidity to do that in the market, they earn excess of what they would earn if they just bought the treasury bond itself directly from the government.

1:31:49Matthew Mezinskis:So basically the bottom line is M3 money is less regulated, highly liquid, highly fast money, and it's all institutional money. So you got institutional time deposits, institutional money market funds are like stable coins, repurchase agreements or repos. So here you can see this is the total amount. And notice, institutional money market funds and repos, big dollar numbers now. They've all roughly grown with the exception of savings deposits and the exceptions of demand deposits, which grew faster because of the stimulus from the 2020 period, they all roughly grow at, they double every 10 years, right?

1:32:29Matthew Mezinskis:They grow at 7 % to 8 % a year. But that's what's happening sort of inside the guts of the system. And it's also my, again, I want to keep going back to the idea that 95 % of what you see in Bitcoin is the network growth itself. It's adoption. It's the power curve. Only 5 % is actually this stuff. So I'm not saying just forget about it or whatever, but this is rarely and not very significantly on the Fed's radar at the moment. There's so many other things that they're trying to attend to in the economy. I'm not defending them. I'm not saying they do it right. But Bitcoin is just still so small that we got a while.

1:33:16Matthew Mezinskis:We got a while. And I expect money supply to double again within 10 years and double again after that. So if not, maybe even a little bit faster. So that's the lesson I would just try to say is like, look, there's a lot of different money supplies out there. Everything I just drew here for the Americas or for the United States, you can draw for other countries. And there's even one more thing that actually is not here, which is another reason why the fed stopped publishing m3 and that is euro dollars so euro dollars or offshore dollars basically dollar-based accounts in you know japan that's not that was never really counted very well are they even able to count that that's that's the question i i think you could if if someone i bet the imf has some idea i haven't seen good estimates but if you if you were to like just try and even guess what that number would be i mean i imagine this would that would blow all the rest of these off the chart like it would be uh it's it's definitely on the higher end yeah i've seen wild estimates of euro dollars from being like a couple trillion to 10 trillion to 30 trillion to 100 trillion yeah there's a there's a lot of mixture there that's some people mixing you know treasure just holding a treasury versus holding an actual dollar denominated account so it's yeah it's hard to tell and i don't have it either so that's the one asterisk to this money supply that I actually don't have euro dollars.

1:34:38Matthew Mezinskis:But in any event, I don't want to be too long here. The point is, the money supply is complicated. I'm not defending it. Bitcoin is still very, very small. And at the end of the day, Bitcoin is most like what you call the base money section here, which is bank reserves, vault cash, and cash in circulation. And so it's growing. It's very close to the United States. Physical cash, look at this. You see, this was June, So cash in circulation in June was 2.3. It's a little bit more now. Bitcoin was close to passing that this month. Whatever the market cap is now, it's not going to be 2.3 trillion by or it didn't close at 2.3 trillion by October.

1:35:18Matthew Mezinskis:I thought it was possible. Maybe November, if we have the cycle continue, as I say may have, maybe we will pass it. But this is actually the last fiat money supply part of base money that's just cash that's bigger than Bitcoin. That seems like a huge signal if Bitcoin gets to the scale where it's bigger than all US cash in circulation at least. And it's not even a million miles from the entire base money. Yeah, it's true. I mean, it's growing fast. It's growing at 40 % a year, although declining on a power curve. So yeah, it's important. It's growing. I mean, we all know the benefits of Bitcoin.

1:35:56Matthew Mezinskis:But I'm just trying to temper people's expectations because, you know, as much as we might think hyperinflation is coming tomorrow or hyperbitcoinization is coming tomorrow, none of those things, hyperinflation in particular, is not a good thing. It's not something I particularly cheer for. And, you know, some of this, you know, I was on a panel with Peter Todd and Adam Back in Helsinki, and Peter's been on about this a lot. He talks about what the cypherpunks had to do with code and the national security laws in the 90s. At some point, and I don't want to say that the United States Supreme Court is the ultimate arbiter of this stuff, but at some point, politically, we're going to have to win on some levels here, right?

1:36:39Matthew Mezinskis:It goes back to, is Bitcoin going to be pulled to the TradFi curve, or is Bitcoin going to pull TradFi to the power curve? There will be some political victories that we will need to have. I know you got to jump to any, but an obvious, obvious problem to this would be if everyone in the world just accepts that we can't withdraw our Bitcoin from mainstream exchanges. That's not a future I want to see. Exactly. So these are still open questions. I know a lot of people with the Trump admin thought that that threat was over. I don't see that over yet. And I see that money supply is still growing. I see the military industrial complex growing.

1:37:17Matthew Mezinskis:I see a lot of things that are difficult for sort of the Bitcoin future that we all want. So yeah, maybe it's not the most optimistic note to end the show on, but I would say, look, we're making interesting records. We're breaking interesting records almost every month with Bitcoin, right? And like I said, this 2.3 cash in circulation here is the last, that's the last fiat stock that Bitcoin hasn't passed in value. It's bigger than euros, yen, yuan, shitty Russian ribbles for sure. But it's not bigger than the US dollar yet. And that will be a fun one. It could happen in November, could happen in December.

1:37:59Matthew Mezinskis:But that's not even the size of the monetary base. You still got to count the bank reserves on top of that. It's going to take time. All that, by the way, is about$27 trillion. I'll release my update coming soon this quarter. So$27 trillion is the total base money of the world. $27 equivalent. Bitcoin, as you know, is 10 % of that. So we got some time. Yeah, but it's going to happen. It's not a if, it's a when. I think we're in the right industry. Yeah, I think we're in the right industry. Bit of a sobering thought to end on, but Matthew, I appreciate you, man. I could talk to you all day. I think maybe, honestly, I've got like three or four other half-hour topics to talk about.

1:38:38So maybe we give it a few months and we go again. But I appreciate you, man. This is great.

1:38:43Matthew Mezinskis:Yeah, likewise, Danny. All the best to you. congrats on everything you're doing and uh you know hope to see you hope to see you sooner rather than later i'm sure we will before we close out actually you should tell everyone where they can watch your streams get all your updates everything you do yeah you can just find me the handles one base money on nostr twitter whatever uh youtube one base money uh is my handle you can base money dot world is my website it's the easiest way to remember probably let's go all right thank you Matthew this was great thank you Danny take care man