Iran, Oil and the Next Financial Crisis | Luke Gromen

29:34I think they understand the leverage they have. And I just think that I think. Putin and Xi are much more low time preference than Americans are. You know, Americans, they only want to buy assets if they're going up at that moment. And, you know, they want immediate pushback and they want immediate reaction. You know, they want it all to be sort of tidied up with a happy ending. And the guy gets the girl, the kiss from the girl at the end of the the end of the half an hour sitcom. And Russia and China, I think, are just happy to sit back and go. Your entire financial system, which is your economy, will blow up without our factories, without our oil.

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32:10Rates for fully insured custody start as low as 0.55 % and are available for individual and commercial customers located in the US. Speak to Anchor Watch for a quote and for more details about your security options and coverage, visit anchorwatch.com today. That's anchorwatch.com. Okay, so if we like move this onto sort of markets a little bit, I read your newsletter last week and you were saying, you know assuming the war continues then markets are going to be down across the board everything's too high basically um with this change what do you think happens now do markets shrug this off or is this going to have a longer term effect i think it really depends on what happens in the next couple days um if iran stops shooting missiles then yeah i think markets are it if i wake up tomorrow morning and like tel aviv's gotten hit again and trump's going you know please stop shooting the missiles we've said nicely um i said the war was over everyone should listen to me i have the best idea about war it's the best war it's the shortest war anyway the if the iranians keep hitting the israelis and if it's especially apparent that they have no intention of letting up and if the straight the straight or booze stays shut despite trump's and i've opened the straight or moose open says of me i said it to open why why are they not opening i don't understand um if the straight of hormuz does not open up in the next couple days then i you know i think you're gonna get a relief or you got a relief rally today i think it'll fall through tomorrow um if iran keeps hitting them and we get towards wednesday thursday friday and it's like hey guys straight over moves is still not flowing and trump has said what his p you know said his piece and it hasn't made a difference and iran is pounding on Israel, then I think you're going to go, I think you'll go and set new lows in stocks.

34:07And I think oil will go right back over a hundred because at that point people go, oh my gosh, this wasn't, this wasn't a draw. This was a strategic loss. This was a Suez moment, 1956 for the United States. And now what? The US has to escalate. Iran's going to escalate. Israel can't really defend itself. It's sort of, you know, in the, in the turtle position on the canvas. what are we doing here and um so let's see uh it's a wishy-washy answer but that's i i don't know yeah you wait and see more for the next 48 hours i think one of the really interesting things in terms of how markets reacted to this war was bitcoin so i know you've been sort of bearish bitcoin for the last few months um but while this happened you would normally expect bitcoin to drop off a cliff um with some like geopolitical tension like this but it was pretty strong in fact i think it's even maybe been up across the actual duration of this war did that surprise you it did a little bit and what i think i was watching and it's this is going to be like schrodinger's schrodinger's bitcoin commentary right especially since the war's over um if you look at the days that bitcoin was really strong some of it was like I noticed a couple things on the days it was very strong over the last two weeks one was it was days that NASDAQ was up really strong and software in particular was up very strong so that's like okay well that's just like dead cat bounce from February and some of that could be okay well you know consumers going to get killed with oil going up so software doesn't use any oil quick oh software's oversold maybe uh the other thing i noticed was it was also up on some days where there where things were getting worse in the middle east but were not necessarily reflected in the stock prices at that moment when i say getting worse based on what i was reading based on what I was hearing.

36:18And I think some of that is very possible if you're in the UAE and you need to get your money out of UAE as fast as you can, I buy some Bitcoin. And that's why I say some of it is Schrodinger's asset class through this thing, which is normally Bitcoin is fully risk-on. Or at least it has been. And in this case, it was actually acting as risk off. Because, you know, normally I've been saying, hey, Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm. Watch what Bitcoin does. That's what risk assets are going to do. So far, it's kind of holding again, I guess, on one level. But it was from a geopolitical standpoint, Bitcoin was going up as things were getting worse in the Middle East, as more radars in the U.S.

37:07were getting hit, as more drones, as Hagseth has gone. sorry, we can't really stop any of these drones as they're coming in. Bitcoin was getting bid. So I think there was some element of sort of it's not oil. It's not going to get killed by oil software, dead cat bounce stuff. I think some of it was actually asking, acting as risk off. My working thesis had been up until literally like two hours ago, this, you know, the war's not going as well as expected. And without a taco, risk is way too high. You know, we've got our taco. So let's see. It could be good for Bitcoin. It could be bad for Bitcoin.

37:55It depends if we go right back to the AI software is dead mode. Well, then Bitcoin's probably going to hit with that in the short run. And if it's risk back on, maybe not. Yeah, it's hard to tell. It is very much, but it has been better than expected. And I think that is, I think Bitcoiners should be encouraged by that. I am not feeling like, oh, I need to chase this yet. But it definitely has done better. You just said to me, hey, Luke, everything you know today, you know, two weeks ago, where's Bitcoin? And I would have said probably 55 ,000. And it's at, whatever, 68 ,000. And so it's definitely better than I would have expected.

38:45Some software bounce. But I think some of it really is Middle East capital flight, which I think true Bitcoiners would tell you, good, that's what it's supposed to friggin do, right? Like that's how it's supposed to work. yeah i mean i think as bitcoiners we quite often blame the fact that bitcoin trades like a risk asset as sort of information asymmetry like people actually don't understand what this asset is so like seeing it trade like this is incredibly promising um do you think we could be getting close to the point where bitcoin has matured into something different or do you think that still is way too early to say i think it's probably still too early to say but it was i think really encouraging right That, you know, look, people were paying$350 ,000 for a jet ride out of the Middle East.

39:37And you got to get your capital out. Like, let's be blunt. Hey, how much more if I want to bring, you know,$40 million of gold in me in the luggage? Like, well, it's going to be another. Versus, you know, can I take this thumb drive? Yeah, just put it in your pocket, right? that is sort of everything it's supposed to be and and it did it so let's see I think it's still too early but I you know again I want to acknowledge what I think we just saw which is I guess said for Bitcoiners I think very encouraging yeah so when you actually wrote in your letter that you were going to sort of get rid of some Bitcoin.

40:26What was your thinking there? Was that around the idea of like four year cycles? You thought that it was just going to roll over? I think it was in like the low hundreds that you maybe first said that, which clearly has been a great trade. When you first did that, I was like, Luke doesn't know this time's different. Who knew someone who's been in the markets for 30 years would know better. But like, what were you looking at when you first started getting rid of some Bitcoin? Yeah, it was I started getting nervous probably low hundreds i sold most of it call it 95 96 000 you know call it 23 24 ounces of gold right um what i started watching was that it was it started off just by it's not acting the way it should right like m2 money supply was like this and bitcoin wasn't reacting okay that's interesting but then it's you know well bitcoin always goes up by an order of magnitude peak to peak against gold cycle to cycle except it's not in fact you know i was one of them where i pointed out i was like bitcoin's unchanged versus gold over five years and that had never happened over any other five-year period okay and that's kind of one of those things of like maybe it means something, maybe it doesn't, right?

41:41As Bitcoin matures, you're going to see more of these things never. And as Bitcoin gets bigger, this has never happened or this always happens. Those will start breaking down. So that was something that broke down. In the same way that like last cycle, 2022, right? Bitcoin has never traded below a prior cycle. Huh? Didn't 2022. Didn't mean it was over, but also didn't mean it was a great buy at 40. I mean, in hindsight, you make the case, it probably was, but you understand what I'm saying. There were better buys to come.

42:16And then what I was seeing in sort of the bond markets, right? When I was seeing what in the Japanese bond market, it yields up, yen down, that's emerging market behavior. And that is in the JGB market, which is just, there's no way you can look at that as a market participant and go, oh, this is going to end up good for Bitcoin. Like that's, it's a, it's a horror show for risk assets. And so you just kind of go, eh, and then you see the way it's trading. And then, you know, there were legitimate concerns, you know, well, then there were within all of this, right. You were seeing a whole bunch of, you know, OG whales or whatever, just sort of these big long-term holders selling and it was holding up, right.

43:06Now, that was initially my reaction was, wow, these big guys are selling and it's not breaking like it used to. That's really encouraging. That was my initial read. And then it starts breaking. Selling$9 billion of coins. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. And then it started breaking down. Then you started having like a whole slew of of of who I would say are pro Bitcoin people raising what to me as a tourist seeming to be relatively valid concerns around quantum and some of those types of things, which, again, I was not like, oh, this is an eminent. and like the markets are smarter than all of us.

43:49And I'm watching Bitcoin trade as all of these things are happening. And the final straw was just, and I wrote this and highlighted for clients before I ever sold. And it was just, you know, two different momentum indicators on a monthly momentum charts. I don't pay a lot of attention to technicals in the short term because I'm not a trader, but big sort of capital flow, monthly sort of technical moves I have been doing this 30 years and when I see them I have gotten my head kicked in enough to just not grow a brain and just respect them and I think I said something to that effect like I've been doing this long enough when when a technical indicator breaks down you know if they just kind of you know in for a smooth landing and cross that's like when they go through like a hot knife through butter that is like gtfo like game over see you later and is it quantum is it is it japan is it war is it i don't care doesn't matter get me out and i think the last part was just the context of understanding like and i i think i may have even said this to you before but i i've been doing this 30 years and bitcoiners have been doing bitcoin for three years and know way more than me about the technology and what have you, whatever.

45:06But doing this 30 years and advising, when I say doing this, advising institutional investors, consulting with institutional investors for 30 years with the marginal bid, so much of the marginal bid for Bitcoin coming from institutions over the last however many years and celebrated rightfully so by Bitcoiners. I also knew that chart, there's going to be no institutional interest in that chart for some time. Everyone and their mothers is going to go, I'll wait. I'll let it come to me. And that's kind of what they did. And so that was, it was not so much one thing. It was a whole lot of things.

45:43In the context of me, like, look, Bitcoin was a frigging enormous position for me personally. It was, you know, irresponsibly large. And so, you know, having a three to 5 % position in something and have it with that chart is a completely different animal than where I was. in terms of positioning. So I just, you know, I wanted to get, I wanted to degross significantly and I did. Yeah, on the quantum side, I like, I'm no quantum expert, but from people I've spoken to, I think that's mainly a narrative issue rather than anything real right now. Like I think quantum is still a long way off. And if something does happen, there's people working on ways that we can change Bitcoin to make it quantum resistant.

46:27But like to make this trade now a genius trade you obviously i gotta buy back huh you gotta buy back assuming your long-term thesis on bitcoin hasn't changed no it hasn't when when do you like what do you need to see before you start looking at this again i need to see more aggressive um nuclear printing if you will um is you know it's we literally have completely put on the back burner this whole ai thing for the last two weeks and i think you know if this around war is over which is sort of like they've managed to paper over ai concerns like friday after friday here in the u.s we had 92 000 jobs lost

47:16and you're seeing job openings in sort of every sector where you'd expect AI to curtail job openings you're seeing job openings in free fall in finance you're seeing them fall in tech you are seeing them drop in services and I just keep hearing more and more and seeing more and more signs in that world that this is accelerated in an exponential rate. And if that's the case, then our debt-based system, consumer credit is going to be a giant smoking crater because of AI. And we can debate if that's in three months or if that's in six months or if that's in 18 months. But from what I can tell, I don't think it's a debate that it's coming and you know we're seeing cracks in private credit i think there's gonna be a lot worse and so my point is is you know and then we still have the situation that japan and the japan trading like an emerging market where yields are going up and the currency is going down so even if we get a resolution on iran and geopolitics i still am I still don't like the risk.

48:33I still think we need very aggressive. I still think anything less than probably like negative interest rates is negative for risk, is tightening financial conditions. And so at the very least, I don't think that's a world where I'm going to wake up in a month and Bitcoin is going to be at$120 ,000. I'm going to go, oh, God, now I got to buy it back and what have you. I could be totally wrong. And if that happens, that's OK. You know, some of that I would expect gold would probably go up with that and ease some of that pain. But that's that to me, I still feel like we're in a risk off world. There's a lot of really big issues that have to be resolved.

49:18And when you've got a lot of debt, you don't have a lot of maneuvering room to resolve those things. it's interesting that you bring up the private credit stuff i was doing a show with jeff snyder last week and he talked all about this and the issues that are happening in the private credit markets and he was saying like while he's not sure there's potential that this leads into another financial crisis type situation do you think we could see another 2007 come out of this i don't know um i have not there are things that remind me of the early days of it right like the last week with the three months ago some black rock fund you know credit was marked at 100 and then you know three months later it's marked at zero you know it's like the the south park chicken meme right and it's gone right and and the one he was bringing up was blue owl i think yeah blue owl i had not you know we've written a little bit about that it's not you know i don't cover the company or anything but um people that i respect have uh um said there's some real issues with credit quality um and again i think if you take a step to me the it's a i think it's a symptom of a broader issue of the pace of ai disruption of productivity growth is too fast um you know we talked about this down in nashville right last fall where it's moving too fast and you're seeing this in youth unemployment.

50:51You're seeing this in credit delinquencies. You're starting to see unemployment move up a little bit off the lows. So could it be 2007? Maybe. But to me, it's a... The reason why I'm so concerned, why I still am sort of okay holding off on getting fully back to a really overweight Bitcoin position is unlike 07, debt to GDP in 07 at the federal level was 60%, right? We still had all that balance sheet room. The deficit was, I don't know, one and a half, 2%, maybe 2.5%, even with a war going on. Maybe it was 3%. But now, if you have credit issues, and I think you're going to have consumer credit issues

51:45simply because of the AI side. It is just, it is, you know, as we talked about in the fall, like this, just to me, it reminds me so much of what China did to the Rust Belt, except, you know, the Rust Belt, you know, the loss of 35 % of manufacturing jobs was ultimately, the pace of that was governed by the speed at which the Chinese could build factories. And as fast as they were, that was still, it took years and years. Like, this is going to go really fast. You know, it moves, you know, connect up a couple computers, boom, gone, right? So then people say, well, it still, you know, has hallucinations and, and, and, and of course, right?

52:23And that's the exact same, you know, basically the exact same thing I heard from union guys here in the Rust Belt, right? Well, the Chinese, they're, you know, they just do low quality stuff. They're just cheap. And it's like, well, their quality is good, but they're still just cheap. They're not going to move up scale. Well, their quality is still really good. They're really cheap and they're moving up scale. Well, my job's gone. And right. So like, you know, we can debate is the AI hallucinatory. We can debate how quickly. We can't debate that it's going to keep getting better faster than you think it is.

52:56And so we can debate, hey, is this a three month away problem? Is this a six, nine, 12, 18 month away problem? It's probably not a two year away problem. And again. look in 2008 this is february of 08 so we've already had right we've got 2005 home price you know greenspan raises rates in 04 summer of 04 summer of 05 home prices peak start to roll over fall of 06 um subprime losses start piling up at that point oh the worst case like 60,$80 billion in losses. Maybe 100 worst case. That was like a huge shocker. Late in 06, I remember that, if I remember right. May of 07, Bernanke says subprime is contained in essence.

53:41July of 07, poof, 3 billion in mortgage funds gone. Wait, what? Even then, the S &P set a record in October. February of 08. So after all of that, right before Bear Stearns goes boom in March of 08. Gets bailed out for$2. In February of 08, New York Times reports that the mortgage delinquency rate, mortgage delinquency and homes in foreclosure is across all homes in America is 7.3%. 92.7 % of mortgages in America were current. Month later, Bear Stearns, over the summer, Fannie Freddie, bazooka lehman literally seven months later eight months later we were that close to the entire financial system collapsing with 92.7 percent of mortgages current so the whole debate around this ai ai is not going to take all the white collar jobs like you're right not it's going to take a few of them and those people are going to pay their mortgages and their car loans and credit card bills and then those things are going to blow up something in private credit and private credit's going to have an issue.

54:58And then the banks are going to pull back on lending and da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da. So to me, I don't know the whole private credit thing and how levered they are and where they're connected. I know the whole system's highly levered. And I know that we are, as a government, as a federal government, with receipts at all time highs, we are barely covering entitlements plus interest expense. and any kind of recession will force us into default on the treasuries or entitlements or print the money and they'll print the money. So, um, that to me is like the, I don't know how, I don't know how they're going to get there, but I'm like, I'm pretty sure, you know, to me, the only debate is, is like how fast, you know, it's, it's, you know, like in golf, right.

55:46They don't ask you, right. They don't ask in golf. They don't ask you how, They just ask you how many, you know, you know, in how far, you know, in AI disruption of the economy and will it create a deflationary like sort of a credit crisis? For me, it's not, you know, how it's just how many months. See, I've not heard that or have not thought about it that way where you talk about the Rust Belt and China taking those jobs. And in reality, it doesn't matter who's taking the jobs. Just someone's taking the jobs and they're not yours anymore. And we've seen what happened in the Rust Belt. and there's like a there was a massive growth in like the opioid epidemic and alcoholism and people dying and it was very isolated from the coasts but this is not going to be this is going to be entirely different and um it's uh it's really scary like why do things just i don't know if this is doomerism but things just seem to get worse luke you know it's i don't know it it's a fascinating study in the American psyche, I think, that it's just like, you know, versus say like the Russian psyche, right?

56:51Like you read a Russian novel and you're like, oh my God, it is like one bad thing after another. And then you like look at Russian history, you're like, well, that checks out, right? Whereas in America, right? It's like American movies, they all have the same plot, right? Which is like, oh, something happens and redemption gets the girl happy ending. That's like all American movies.

57:14you talk to someone in the Rust Belt in America, like it's not all happy movie. Like we've been to any number of funerals for kids that overdosed, parents that overdosed, suicides, what have you. We saw these jobs lost. You know, 1965, Cleveland was like the fifth richest city in America. You know, by 1980, the river, or 1975, the river was on fire, right? So like it happens fast. And, but it's fascinating, right? the psyche of America of like, hey, we always get a happy ending. People are like, you never short America. You never short America over the span of your lifetime. You shorted America in November 23rd, 1963, the day after they shot JFK, and you covered your short in 1980, it's a pretty good time to short America.

58:04You shorted America in October 1929, you covered your short in like 1933, 1935, pretty good short. right there's periods of times where like stuff happens you know and in different parts of the country right if you shorted the american you know farm belt right before the dust bowl horribly that was a great short it was a disaster um

58:32and when you have these losses of of meaning right plains native americans in this country They lost their meaning. They were put on reservations. They drank themselves to death as they lost their meaning, even though it was a better way of life. They lost their meaning. You take a bunch of Soviet apparatchiks and under the Soviets, things were not great, especially in the 70s and 80s. They were not great at all. They got a better way of life. And they drank and shot themselves to death at staggering rates through the 90s because they lost their meaning. 2000s I lived through it Rust Belt you take people's meaning away they drink and shoot themselves to death at staggering rates and so there's like this you know a lot of the people that are sort of in charge of the AI renaissance are for lack of a better word autists right they are brilliant people whose EQ is probably not really high um like oh it's just all gonna be great we're all never gonna have to work again elon's like well we're just gonna have everything's gonna be like free and you're like how about between here and there dude like you know um and he doesn't have to think about those things i was whatever 100 trillion dollars i wouldn't either um but the rest of us do and that's like the reality And forget about the social side of it for a moment, the credit side of it.

1:00:06Every single person that loses their job or loses wages to an AI, none of these people are living debt free. Like there are so few people living debt free. So I just, to me, that's like a major, major story around, you know, I think ultimately rates will be much lower. They could be negative. I don't know how the universal basic income job guarantee. There's a lot of different ways you can try to handle this.

1:00:40But we're not at the level of sort of panic that I would like to where I'm like, OK, let's go. I want to own everything. I'm much more rifle shot approach, and I'm in a very cautious position right now. Yeah, the crazy thing there about like shorting America is I can see the sort of fabric of society breakdown that you're painting here. Like the loss of meaning is incredibly impactful. But at the same time, it will probably be American companies that benefit the most. So it's just like even greater wealth divide. And I think UBI seems just an obvious solution to this that I think will be tried.

1:01:18Who knows if it'll work. But at the end of the day, it seems to all lead back to someone's going to press the money printing button. I think so. So how long do you think we have until this snowball gets out of control and someone does have to do a turbo print? I don't know. Probably only three to six months, depending on AI. I mean, remember where we're literally like two weeks ago before the whole Iran thing where it was like.

1:01:50uh you know we literally had just gotten where you know uh um you know jack had fired 40 percent of his workers right and it was like holy cow you know and sort of all of the you know you know kevin bacons you know you know everything is under control or what does he say in animal house right remain calm right the people those people in marcus they're like well jack you know he has way too many people anyway and he had way too many people at x and they got rid of all those people and it didn't affect x's thing at all i'm like you're missing the entire point dude yes okay let's say you're 100 right and let's say they do that let's say there's lots of organizations like i didn't dinner like last fall with a corporate exec who's fairly high up he's like yeah corporate like 60 % of corporate is just showing up and I'm like that's insane right so you go and be saying big corporations you're showing up do your job go home okay great how many of those just show up do your job like and again 92.7 % only 7.3 % of mortgages going into delinquency or default kaboom whole system so 60 % of the job is showing up and just like what percent of that's ai gonna take like morgan stanley just blew out three percent of the workers and with record profits by the way and they didn't say anything about ai uh in the release but then new york post over the weekends like that execs are quietly saying it's ai related that they're just getting more efficient three percent three percent and we're not a manufacturer people like well they're just all gonna go to construction and trades and all this you're like come on you know i've seen that movie like you don't teach old dogs new trick i'm an old dog you know 50 year olds don't go like leave banking i well i was a commercial lender and i had a golf membership i was every done every day to four on the course by five and now i'm out of a job i got a mortgage i got two kids in college i got a two thousand dollar a month lease on my mercedes or my Range Rover, and now I got to go learn how to trade?

1:03:59Come on. These people are high. This is not how that's going to go. Maybe on the margin, but for most of them, no. So I think it's going to happen faster than people think. I really do. And I think, look, the jobs number down 92 ,000. Everything is star-spangled awesome, and we're losing to 92 ,000 jobs. I think it's a big deal. and and it was fascinating because the iran war no one said a thing like it wasn't even if if there was no war and we printed that jobs number holy cow nobody even noticed it was like wag the dog i guess the the positive notes close out on is that for people for the people that do harness ai and use it in like an interesting and meaningful and and maybe novel way there's going to be massive opportunity there'll be a billion dollar company run by one person at some point so there is hope out there oh yeah right like that's you know I think we even talked about this last time in Nashua like there's a couple 8th graders in a garage happening like right now and there's they're going to put some like 10 billion US company out of business and you know we literally said that in October this was right mid October when we were together and in February software Whereas the service is like, yep.

1:05:22Right. Which is essentially happening. A couple of eighth graders in a garage can now vibe code. Like that was the fear. Right. And, and AI is only going to get better. So there's going to be a lot more of those. And that's like super exciting and super scary. Right. It gets like, you know, you've got to be on your game. Like you can get disintermediated in some of these traditional white collar positions and you can be a disintermediator. And so like, okay, here we go. Disruption everywhere. Disruption is the theme of this show, I think. Luke, this has been awesome. Thank you very much for making the time.

1:06:00I will let you go. But before we do, tell everyone where they can get your newsletter and follow you. I'm sure everyone knows. Absolutely. No, thank you. I appreciate it. If they're interested in more information about our different mass market and institutional research products at fftt-llc.com. and Twitter or X, sorry, Elon, at Luke Groman, L-U-K-E-G-R-O-M-E-N. I still can't get you saying X either. Luke, thank you so much, man. I appreciate it. Thanks for having me on, buddy. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

1:06:47Thank you.