Is The Bitcoin Power Law Broken? | Matthew Mezinskis

28:39Back in 2021, 2017, 2013. Let's imagine that there's a way to sort of, you know, get ahead of the market and do that because I fully expect it to be similar like that. Things like hyper-Bitcoinization, all that stuff, it's nice to talk about, but the data suggests differently. It suggests a more gradual approach. When that did not happen, When that did not happen in the fall, right, we barely got to Q80, you see here, and Q90, Q100 is like, just forget about. But when we were in October, so here's August, by the way, and here's October, when we started to not hit those levels and really fall down, and then Giovanni had a very interesting cycle analysis, which he has pointed, and we can talk about this as well briefly.

29:25But it's basically trying to look at, so the power law here, this is looking at the main wiggle, the main trend, right? Putting it in these straight lines on log-log. Of course, we can also look at the cycles, the wiggle within the main wiggle. Giovanni in the spring, he made me want to try to do this analysis myself. He did sort of a cycle analysis where you look at the returns in log space, which you can't see them unless you look at log space. And you look at, you try to extract some cycles, still using a power law underlying math, he found that there was a cycle about 4.2 years apart. All right.

30:01And to me, that even further validated it. But again, he did that in like March or February of this year. Let's still put ourselves in the mind of fall of 2020. He still had that analysis. He was talking about it. He said there'd be a drop in November. He was right. I was listening to him. And so I was very cautious to people. First of all, because the power law is strong, the way that it shows its bands about relative risk. Second of all, because the cycles are a strong signal as well. And people were very, very quick to dismiss both of those things. How many times do we hear the four-year cycle was over in the fall of 2025, right?

30:37I think I said it a thousand times. Right. Because we had this stable, nice growth and everything. When really, I think in reality, what happened, if you just look at this is, notice how quickly we got back to the median here. This was already in 2024. four, all right, early 2024, what I think was really happening was ETFs. ETFs were onto the scene, right? It came out in January, 2024. And I think Wall Street started to front run this idea. Of course, Wall Street knows about the parallel. They know about every other model that they do with their quants. So they started to think, all right, well, this has obviously been a powder keg of 10 years, you know, politically suppressed idea, Bitcoin ETFs.

31:20We got to front run it. You saw that there's a lot of growth and it cooled off. And then again, a lot of growth at the end of 2024. All right. Both of which, by the way, are above the median. Let's just take, just only show the median, which was really elevated growth compared to say the last four year cycles. Just keeping it simple, keeping it simple. In 2017, right, we didn't get to the median until 2017. right in 2021 we didn't get to the median until december of 2020 as i remember those days well and covid everybody's locked down and all of a sudden bitcoin prices exploding and meme stocks and everything but notice how the explosion comes very quickly above the median all right in 2013 as well as the year of 2013 we got back to the median so usually and particularly that crypto winter as it's called the uh you know from 2013 top to 2017 top spent a long time under the median under the power law.

32:12And here we went deep. And when I say here, for those that are maybe it's harder to listen to this podcast unless you're not watching. But for those in that remember the 2022, you know, SBF gift to us all of, you know, puking really, really bad in in November 2022, Peter Zion is saying, you know, it's seventeen thousand dollars overvalued on Joe Rogan when price of$16 ,000, very, very deep, deep depths of depression. It only took, you know, a year, basically a year, basically 2023. And all of a sudden, 2024 is kicking off and we're back to the median. That was a different trend. That was a different sort of cycle within the cycle.

32:57So you need to adapt a little bit. And what I saw was, and Giovanni also solidified this further for me was with it's still the overall scheme seems to be a four-year trend which we can get to but we were just we couldn't stay above that that very strong ols or the median however you want to look at it you know the ols was even breaking down further and so i was just cautious you can find it on my streams i was saying guys like look i was hoping by this time october and november we were going to be counting the days above these q90 bands and just you know just having fun with this, seeing, okay, how repeatable is this trend?

33:33How strong is this trend? You know, is this something that we can sort of really, really find some signaling? And the point was, we didn't. And there was a lot of people that were super bullish October, November saying the four-year cycle was over. It's just completely ignoring reality. And then all of a sudden, you know, November, we broke down below the trend itself. And then the start of the year. You know, metals are on tear as well. We just we broke down very, very fast. So, yeah, it's not no four year cycle is repeatable in Bitcoin, but there is a four year cycle. And if the thing is not doing exactly as you think it will, just be cautious.

34:15That's all I could say is be cautious. So, look, that's my view. And it turned out to be it turned out to be the right way to look at this in the fall. The thing that keeps me up at night with Bitcoin cold storage isn't Bitcoin failing, it's my setup failing. And this is where Anchor Watch comes in. With Anchor Watch, your Bitcoin's insured with your own A-plus rated Lloyds of London insurance policy. And all Bitcoins held in their time-locked multi-sig vaults. So you have the peace of mind knowing your Bitcoin's insured while not giving up custody. So whether you're worried about inheritance planning, wrench attacks, natural disasters, or just your own silly mistakes, you're protected by Anchor Watch.

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36:45Like, I mean, you can observe it and it clearly does. Like I thought it was going to be broken, but I just don't understand what's driving it because you can't really say that the cut-in subsidy is really a leading driver of the four-year cycle anymore. Like I don't know what the sort of driver of that is anymore. I think you can. I think you can, Danny. Why? It's such like a small amount of supply the market. That's the reason that people give on the why not, right? I've interviewed these people. I know you have, and there's plenty of people that have talked about it. Again, it's not a big deal.

37:18Everybody has their opinion on Bitcoin. But look, the gold market, let me put some of my applied statistics and I'm interested in financial history and stuff as well. So mining in general is a huge game for the monetary system of any society. We have the famous case of Spaniards, Cortez and such, just stealing a lot of Aztec gold and other gold in the new world in Bolivia, Peru now today. There was this silver mountain that when that got back to Europe, that can cause great carnage, right? If you overmine, if you flood the supply. But generally speaking, if you are running a mine or close to the state, the polity, whoever is running the system, it's a pretty good business.

38:11And it's pretty good for the state. Again, we don't have to judge on if the state is good or bad or what becomes good to the state. I'm just saying mining is a strong business in the history of monetary, monetary, the civilization that that the civilizations that arise around money usually have to be very close to a mine. Of course, they can overmine it. They can have problems. But, you know, this is this is the origins of the Cantillon effect, by the way, the Cantillon effect. You want to say it is that those that are closest to the mine, you know, have the most power. it's important. Now, gold.

38:52Before this huge surge in gold to$5 ,000 at the start of this year, plus, right, 5 ,200 bucks, 5 ,300 bucks, in February, January, February of this year, and say two years ago, the gold mining market in totality in the whole world was about$100 billion. And again, gold's different from Bitcoin. Sailors made this observation many people have, I have as well. You know, gold, Gold mining is not like it used to be, right? People don't try to save some of the gold. They just want to shed the gold. It's a revenue profit center, but it's also a cost, right? So they shed the gold to cover their costs and that's it.

39:30That's just how the gold market is. Bitcoin is totally different. A lot of miners hodl Bitcoin. It's much easier to do. It's not easier to do in the fact of mining, but I mean, it's easier to obviously to transfer around. Bitcoin is changing the economics of mining in general, just because mining is a general concept. So this is all also interesting. But still, still, to this day, mining can always be disrupted by price. And when the gold price and the silver price went up to$4 ,000 or$5 ,000 an ounce, on a trailing 12-month basis, the gold mining industry went from being a$100 billion industry to over the last couple years being a$400 billion industry.

40:08And still at the moment, it's over. On a trailing 12-month basis, if that$5 ,000 would hold, it'd get up to a$500 billion industry. Like the oil, just for people's, another way to understand the comparison, the oil markets are a trillion dollar industry a year. Trillion dollars in revenue, sometimes it'd be a trillion five, super volatile, super political. These are huge industries, right? And all of a sudden, because of a 20-year spike in the gold price, gold is now a$400 billion industry,$500 billion billion dollar industry. That's going to matter. It affects everybody politically, economically, geopolitically.

40:48Now, with all that little background, imagine applying that 20 years from now into the Bitcoin mining space. Imagine that we have whatever, 400, 500 billion dollars of Bitcoin mining revenue, and then it gets halved in a day. It's going to matter. It's going to matter. It's not going to not matter. This is a just, This is just a feature of the Bitcoin system that everybody, I think, kind of wants to forget. But Satoshi built it in and it's what we have. It won't necessarily halve, though. If we're talking that far out, the percentage of the minor revenue coming from fees will be much higher than the percentage of revenue coming from fees today.

41:31Today, it's largely subsidy. At some point in the future, that fee percentage has to be much higher. The fee percentage can and will be higher for sure. But the inflation or whatever you want to call it, the issuance, the subsidy, the block reward, it's still going to be a meaningful. It's still going to be a meaningful number when we're talking about Bitcoin being, you know, 5 million, 10 million a coin. so i get all the arguments against it i get the fact that you know many more times uh a volume and dollar amount of bitcoins flow between minor wallets and uh or etf wallets or exchange wallets right i get the the whole premise of the idea the bottom line is mining is an important topic in the realm of monetary finance, monetary history.

42:31Satoshi specifically designed mining for that reason. And he decided to have it every four years. It's a shelling point. It's a shock. So I am, again, I'm just trying to be modest about this. I would not discount mining as quickly as many people are apt to do in the space just because nominally right now, right, it's much smaller than say 50 Bitcoins a block, which it used to be right it still can be a huge amount of money in the future and i expect it will be and i expect that it will also provide a lot of fireworks and shocks to uh the system but that's how it is that's how it's designed so if we go back to the power law if you think the four-year cycle is still real um and we're are we about as low as we've ever been compared to the median on the power law?

43:21Like how far from a bottom do you think we are? Right. So I'll just show you very quickly the worst and the best. And then I'll also show you another way I'm looking at this now. So this is all time data, right? And the reason I'm getting these nice smooth lines is I'm extending, I'm taking the all time data, how I find the coefficients, don't worry about it, whatever, running the math, and then extending the line back and extending forward. All we can do in the future is extend it forward. But in the past, I'm sort of creating lines that actually didn't exist at the time. This is a small caveat here.

43:52So I'm, uh, there's another way to look at this, which I think will be more helpful. But basically, if you can imagine, if you look here, you see how we had this big drop here, uh, at the start of June. And now we're basically setting our own new bottom here. Okay. And we're off it, but I, this is way too early for me to predict, like, you know, we're going up from here. I'm sure a YouTube thumbnail will do that for you, but I would just be cautious about the levels that we're at. But as you notice, if we paint this line backward, we go back to the SPF levels, there's a huge amount of gap here.

44:24At the time, the zero was actually here. So another way I'm looking at this chart now is I'm showing the evolving trend. All right, I also have the shades of the bears here. If these charts are constantly evolving, does that actually mean that they're useful going forward? I'd be really interested to see what this chart looked like as the sort of statistics were back in, say, the SPF crash, like how this cycle would have looked since then. Right, right. So that's something I'm trying to show more on my streams now because uh precisely to your question that you get the nice smooth lines when you just draw the math based on the all-time data right but the question would be what did the data show say in 2013 or 2017 or 2021 so that's why i'm now when we look forward okay we have the same projection of the lines right the the percentile quantile bands basically for simple language i'm just calling them the lines but here's how it would actually look over time.

45:18And I think this is even more helpful to show people how, you know, trends can change, they can evolve, but still overall, we're still in a power function. So here's every band, but actually how it would look at the time. And every new day's worth of data, we change the band. So I'm not projecting backward, which I'm actually doing here to get the nice smooth lines. I'm just showing you how they would look at the time. So this goes back to what I was talking about with low low low if you look at the early days here this 2011 pop and i'm gonna start my pricing about bitcoin p today sub penny um i think i used 35 pounds uh for those 10 000 bitcoins because remember it was a it was a sterling to dollar transaction yeah uh but in any event um notice how these gaps are larger kind of wild the lines are trying to figure themselves out and no one in the world was thinking that bitcoin was was running like a power power trend at this time all right not even here and you would see this thing which is the q100 which is like the the realm of possibilities of bitcoin's price it's fantastic right like let's just look at what the number says q100 when we were at uh december 2013 that a thousand you know twelve hundred dollar top, right, November, December, is saying$350 ,000 for Bitcoin at the time is theoretically possible.

46:44Obviously, you know, we needed some more time to work out and the price never got close to that. But because of the action that occurred in 2011, that's what the math said. All right. So let's even take off Q100 just because, again, it sort of distracts, I'd say. But I'll come back to it because you can find some interesting things here. Anyway, Anyway, as particularly as we get into 2016, 2017, and this is where, you know, Giovanni and myself, we started into 2018 looking at how this was forming. Notice how the lines get A, closer together, and B, straighter on log log. They're not perfectly straight.

47:24They're not perfectly straight, but they get pretty good. You can clearly see from 2017 top, they get, you know, there's a pattern. And so this is another way to see the power lock. Now, look, let's look at the worst examples, the worst offenders where we form new bottoms in this. We were at, say, a Q0 of$281 in December 2014. But as that crypto winter, as it's called, I'm not using that word to trigger anybody, went down to$200 at the lows in 2015. 2015, that Q0 turned into, well, this is log-log, so it actually kind of stayed the same. But at the worst case, it got to$190. And you can just see, for those watching the video, you can see it's obviously dropping quite consistently.

48:142018, interestingly, that dropped to 3 ,000. Nominally, we know that 3 ,000 was well over the 1 ,200 top of the prior cycle. That's also an interesting thing to look at. We didn't really puncture there, right? That was kind of a nice support. And then 2020, we did. And notice here in 2020, the pandemic briefly, we punctured below. And let's actually look at what happened. So the Q0 line is coming down and it's setting a new bottom of, you know, and if we look at the way that that came down, and by the way, this also shows you that this has nothing to do with are they parallel to each other? You see the Q0 is actually slightly above the Q10, which is interesting, at the time in 2020.

49:02But it comes down to fully, you know, be in the current position that is today. And it took about from 2020 February to, you know, to 2020 late March, obviously during the just extreme craziness of the pandemic and scared a lot of people. And then so that's sort of the new bottom relative to this, like I said, for lack of a better word, like setting these bands, these individual sort of thresholds of where the price can possibly be. And we just we set a new low and that's it. So you just have to imagine that that's going to be not imagine, like just understand this is the probability of reaching this level is lower.

49:46And then look, we set a new low as well with scam bank and frauds gift to us all after, of course, the just defy summer of madness in 2022, all that stuff, Terra, Celsius. And so it took us, again, a couple months. We set a new low. But as Peter Zion was, again, saying Bitcoin was$17 ,000 overvalued at$16 ,000, we were already sort of forming that bottom. And then it took until January of 2021 to get out. And once you see, just notice here, once you see the price start to rise off of the Q0 level, and when I say Q0, it's actually Q0.0001. It's finding the least probable event relative to the power law.

50:32And once it starts to move away from that, usually that bottom holds through the next cycle. It doesn't always go lower. Notice in 2018, it didn't go lower, but it did briefly in 2020. It did briefly in 2022. and now we're setting a new low. So from this June fall, we went to a low of Q0 of 67 ,000. Now our Q0 is 59 ,000. So here you can see it actually as it evolves. And brass tacks, bottom line, when you do this type of analysis, which is not lines on charts, I'm not just connecting dots. These are actual scientific functions here. And when you see there more white space between each band, it just means the range of probabilities is expanding.

51:17It means our range of uncertainties based on prior observations is unfortunately a little bit wider. Risk is possibly a little bit more. But if past is prologue, it doesn't last that long. And generally, these are screaming by opportunities. And frankly, statistically, relative to the power law or the power curve, this is as cheap as Bitcoin has ever been. In fact. Yeah. So who knows when the bottom will be, but statistically, this is deep, deep value, as good value as you get. Deep value, as good as you can get for the brass tacks listener here. But also, like you said, you don't know the bottom.

51:53I'm not saying this is the bottom. There's nothing here that tells me, you know, in August, we're not going to dip lower or whatever.

52:04US legislation fails miserably, this Clarity Act, and then, you know, people try to, you know, Trump gets impeached or whatever, and his crypto businesses, he becomes the next SPF, which I've, by the way, said that could even happen like two years ago, just thinking about the four-year cycle. I'm not at all saying that. I have no idea what will happen. but you know these are interesting little nuggets that line up with the four-year cycle and as far as i can tell here the four-year cycle is perfectly intact it's it's it's shallower than prior cycles we've only been through nine months of this it's 53 percent drop all right 2020 we got to a 77 percent drop sorry 2022 uh two 2018 we got to an 84 drop 2014 we got to an 85 drop so the each drop is less than before but i have no idea if it's going to be 53 this time 60 but what we do see so far is actually relative to the drops relative to uh the trends the cycle is you know the the regret the deviations from regression are shallower, the shallower this time.

53:17It's interesting that it's the smallest drop in any of these bear markets, but probably the worst sentiment we've had. You know, the next question I'm going to ask though. So let's just assume that the four-year cycle is real. What would the median line be for the top of the next cycle right now? So if we assume that the four-year cycle is real, that means it's going to be uh, 2029, right? And let's just say somewhere 2029, uh, November. All right. The OLS there, you can see 386 ,000 median, 365 ,000, uh, on a low case Q zero, 184 ,000. And on a really fun case, which is put that Q 100 back, which is really looking, uh, like, you know, by the way, those things are technically possible, but they look like - We got a million dollar Bitcoin.

54:15Million dollar Bitcoin, but let's look at the Q90 there, $500 ,000 Bitcoin. Another interesting thing is to look at the multiple over under the curve itself. That's what you see in the parentheses there in Stooltip. So a 3X multiple used to be more popular. It used to happen, let's say, more, it was more prevalent. Now, I think that's less rare, but getting to a 1.4X, 1.5X, totally possible. uh and by the way notice how those deviations uh i'm talking about the multiples over under the trend so so my ols let me put this chart back in just so you can see it clear what i'm talking about the ols is is is one right q0 q100 here notice how back in the day right when we're when we're establishing this trend, trying to work out the math, the Q100 could be 20x, right?

55:09The trend, 10x, the trend. Q0 could be 0.16, 0.09, the trend, right? Q0, wherever it was painted. Today, Q100 is 3.3x, Q0 is 0.42. And as we go in the future, these actually converge. So you actually get less extremes to the upside, less extremes to the downside, which is in itself a very nice visual of that scale, scale invariant sort of power law nature where it's a sustainable growth with, yes, not as much upside, but also not as much downside. and in general, a more stable type of a growth is actually what power growth represents. Yeah, I'm here for that. That sounds good. If you're trying to take into account like official market hypothesis, is there an argument that as this sort of model ingests more data, it will stop breaking to the downside every couple of years like it is doing now because it will have seen enough previous market moves that it can sort of price in the future?

56:20Or is that is that too far out there probably no i mean uh and again this gets back to the grand theory which we can talk about um i'm trying to think if we need more charts to show you in response to uh what you're talking about here but i would say You know how I said the power law is projected to slow to a 10 % growth rate in 2070? That's nice to project out that far, and I do it for fun, and I show people what the price would be and what the growth rate is on my streams all the time with this. But I think that that's more just trying to give us a flavor of how the thing will grow. And I do think...

57:00I don't want to say there comes a time when... I'm using this term a lot, like fireworks, right?

57:09often in financial markets, we try to say there comes a point when this stuff breaks or whatever. Yeah. That so far hasn't happened. I could be wrong though. Like we could be geopolitically worldwide. We don't have to get into it, right? We're in sort of a realignment now, whether it's NATO, whether it's China, whether it's Russia, whatever. We're in a realignment of sort of the world order. It's possible that the dollar loses status and Bitcoin ascends rapidly there. And that's why I use this term sort of fireworks. I do see something like that happening in the 2030s simply because of the way a lot of numbers are lining up, right?

57:48So the power law is going to be about, it's going to fall to, you know, 25%, 20 % by 2040. That's going to happen to match, I think, what the stock market is probably doing around then. And also the market cap of Bitcoin, that you will be around 5 million per coin at that time. So that's going to be about$100 trillion market cap. The monetary base is also going to be about$100 trillion. Again, I don't want to be drawn in by these round numbers. Because even when Bitcoin is$100 trillion, and the monetary base is$100 trillion, that's still that 50-50 market share. And it probably will be the case that maybe some central banks are backing, major central banks are backing their balance sheets with Bitcoin at the time.

58:31So it's hard to predict, I would say, like exactly how this plays out. But what I do think is we're on a collision course is Bitcoin's value is going to grow to a number and also the growth rate of the asset itself is going to shrink to another that's comparable to the rest of sort of the world, TradFi. And then at that point, and again, that point could be many, many years. It could be a decade. The world's going to have to see, do they want to like lend out Bitcoin, or let's say they lend out fiat units, maybe some of them are backed by Bitcoin to try to get a good return where we're still using like dollars, euros, yen as the base underlying currency?

59:18Or do we move to the sort of numeraire where it's Satoshi's? And then in that case, do you want to lend out those precious Satoshi's at a rate that is actually

59:33probably either too hard to pay back for the borrower because they're getting the Satoshis continue to get stronger or do we go to something like totally different like an equity-based system or a system where there's just maybe some very short short-term debt but But if a Bitcoin world where people are investing in projects and trying to just develop the world, maybe there's some sort of a different model, obviously, with technology and everything where it can be on more of like an equity based system. But that's part and parcel of the grand theory that I'm thinking about, because I think in 10 years, you're going to a lot of these numbers are going to collide, the financial system and the Bitcoin system.

1:00:19and I'm not exactly sure how it plays out. But I do, for anyone listening to this show or watching the show in the back of their mind wondering, okay, well, how does this work if Bitcoin's growth rate declines but the stock market stays at like 15, 20 % per year, what happens? I agree. There's going to have to be a decision that's made there by people of all kinds and all sorts of governments. Are you just going to have Bitcoin sort of locked in some component of the economy like gold? withdrawals are almost impossible in the trad fi world and just exponentially more fiat units are lent out at interest just like the system we have or do we move into this system where bitcoin actually as a uh stable scalable asset that grows at a power regression uh will actually pull the rest of the world into their system and then maybe the system will start growing power But the key here is, if it's not clear, if you grow in power, an interest rate won't work there.

1:01:20A fixed interest rate won't work. At some point, Bitcoin's enviable UTXOs, they're going to accrete in value, but relative to, I don't know, the dollar or Apple stock, they actually might fall below that. So then what happens at that point? see i think that's really interesting it's one of the things that i've always really struggled with because clearly if we went to a bitcoin standard you're not going to get rid of credit like credit is always going to exist in some capacity and if if there's like a business opportunity or an investment that looks tempting enough people will part with satoshis to invest in that and and some people will be able to make enough money on those business decisions or whatever to pay back those loans but not everyone and i get that in this fiat world we have tons of malinvestment because it's very easy to get your hands on on credit but if you do you have the opposite where people are unwilling to lend unless you have an absolute killer idea and there's actually lack of investment yeah that's the that's the old like it's almost keynesian central banker like right i mean fear of the deflation and um look i i don't have a full answer i'm more thinking about it mathematically and I would say it would depend on the system.

1:02:41It would depend on the monopoly of the system, who's in control of the system. And if we're on a decentralized system where everybody's individual demand is stronger than the government's actions to compel them and they're just going to want Satoshi's, they're going to want it in their wallet or they're going to want to use Lightning,

1:03:01then I think such a system could work just fine But actually, due to the nature of Bitcoin's power growth in this case, and just the nature of, you know, we know that the supply is extremely limited here, unlike gold, unlike silver, where, again, it exponentially produces 1.8 % a year more gold, 1.5 % a year more silver. the system could change we could have like sort of the best way i could describe it is is uh you know either very short-term factoring type debt or people people are just going to have to take uh more equity contracts in their endeavors and everyone becomes a vc yeah yeah exactly and you might not be sure the exact, you'll have a range of your return.

1:03:52Maybe there's like some preferred return that you try to get, but if you don't get it and you split the profits or whatever, technically nothing is impossible to do here, but it's just, it's not exponential growth. So we're, we're already going into my sort of the grand theory and I have so many different charts, but I don't know where you might want to take this, but I can show you. I think the most interesting and most relevant right now is probably talking about the treasury companies because obviously sailors had a rough couple of weeks ever since they sold that first 32 bitcoin i don't know what was that a month a month or so ago um they've kind of been in a mess it looks like they've recovered it now they've sold bitcoin to pay dividends which makes total sense to me i think that's what they should do i think that's good um but like you said earlier in the show their cost of capital right now is 12 13 whatever it is that's fine as long as the caga stays at around 40 but as you said that's not going to continue forever and just as like a complete vibe gut check it's clearly not going to exist forever like bitcoin is not going to go up at 40 forever yeah the question is when does that date come and what do they do in that situation because it's funny that they've gone from basically a zero percent cost of capital when they were doing converts at zero percent to now paying 13 i don't i don't know what the market is like why the market's forced him to do that.

1:05:10But I mean, 13 % is pretty high. The trade-off is probably the preferred aspect of it. So it's very, very difficult for him to get liquidated because it's a perpetual instrument, which is smart on his part. It's very smart to do it that way. But yeah, there is a higher hurdle rate there that he has to make. Let me show you this. This is the S &P. I don't know if I showed you this last time, but this is the S &P over a couple hundred years. I showed this actually at the cheat code conference, a variant of this chart. So exponential growth, again, I'm not going to go through all this, but this is S &P 500 back calculated.

1:05:50There's people that do this back to the 1800s. Bottom line is it's very slow growth in the 1800s. The 1900s got a little bit faster. I do these as a little monetary epoch. So when the Federal Reserve was founded, then when we went off of gold, Brenton Woods ended and we went to 1971 end of the Bretton Woods standard. And then from 2008, when basically banks got bailed out all the time by central banks, and we have this monetary easing sort of pattern, notice that the treadmills get faster and faster. And the treadmills are actually the growth rate. I'm Here's the, this is log linear, exponential growth.

1:06:36But what is actually here is Jeffrey West, the physicist, he's got a great book called Scale, talks about this as well. There's others that talk about this. He calls it super exponential. So it is constant growth, but it actually grows even faster over time, right? If you just take these sort of long enough horizons. And that's my question about actually how the Bitcoin system marries with this idea. and I do think it's going to be a part of it. So when Jeffrey Ress wrote his book, just to summarize, I'll try to summarize a physics book in 30 seconds here. He was talking about this very interesting idea of the singularity, but he wasn't using like the Ray Kurzweil.

1:07:17He was just using a mathematical singularity. But if we can see that with our world, our fast growing world of technology, and we know that we grow faster and faster and faster over these epochs, but notice that the, time periods are shorter and shorter and shorter. We still have some time. We have some time, but presumably there'll be another crash, probably a deep crash, more monetary inflation. But also, there is technological development, which causes the stock market to grow faster. AI is a prime example right now. There will come a point where we reach this mathematical singularity, which basically there's one point and we can't grow any faster.

1:07:55What happens there? That's the question he poses in his book. He leaves it open. And he wrote this book, I think the first draft was 2014 or maybe 2017. I'm not even sure. He was not mentioning Bitcoin. He did not think about Bitcoin here. So I've sort of overlaid Bitcoin as an idea of what could take over the mathematical singularity. It's just another data point. And I think by the mid 2030s, you'll see these fireworks. So again, exponential growth. Let's take off these trends. Let's show you in percentage term what these mean. So now you have these, this is the treadmills, right? While you're pulling that up, can I ask you a quick question on this?

1:08:34Does it have to stay exponential? Yes, all financial markets have always been exponential. Primarily, in my opinion, I don't have like vast amounts of underlying research here, but it's as ancient as, you know, the oldest contracts that we have is basically the interest rate. It's an ancient thing and interest by definition, applying an interest rate to an asset, to a debt, to a mortgage, whatever, to a company, cost of capital, that's an exponential function. So it will always be exponential. And what's even, let's say, even scarier or wilder for our times is we have massive amounts of technology and faster and faster growth rates.

1:09:19So this is the super exponential. So again, just very basic here. I'm sorry, I'm being an idiot here, but I want to know why. Why does putting an interest rate on it make it exponential? Is it because of compounding? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that is, compound interest is the same thing as exponential growth. Okay. Geometric growth, continuous compounding, exponential growth, they're all essentially the same function. And that is, by the way, a straight line on log scale. So when you grow, you get a trend that looks, let's just say I'll grow from 2008. I split up the trends here, but from 2008, I have a line going through this.

1:09:57You can clearly see this is exponential. Log linear. And in my opinion, the reason for this is credit. It's credit. It's the interest rate. Yes, the money supply is a part of it and everything, but the stock market is way more valuable than the money supply. So it's credit actually that does it. And notice, by the way, this is another small tangent. The markets are negatively skewed. You see that how we have like huge dips to the downside and then we sort of slowly go up, but then we always have these stairs up, elevator down. Right, right. That is different than Bitcoin. If we go back to Bitcoin, This is sort of a different topic.

1:10:36Notice how the crazy spikes are the opposite. We surprise ourselves to the upside, which is why, by the way, I still think we can do that. It might not be hyper-Bitcoinization all in one day, but I think we can easily go to 250 or 300 ,000, whatever. I saw one, you probably saw this as well, like one of these ideas, maybe Trump buys strategy and we have a$250 ,000 God candle or something. All this stuff is possible. And Bitcoin actually surprises to the upside. So you never know. But that's sort of a small tangent. Back to the idea of the stair steps, which I got to find. There's too many charts for you here, Danny.

1:11:14Where did I put it? Here it is. The stock market over a long, long, long period. The other trend, which is wild, is it's actually faster exponential trends. That is also appears to happen in markets. And maybe it happened in old times as well. Like maybe that was why Rome collapsed. Maybe that was, you know, people blame it on money printing, they blame it on this, blame it on that. But it could have been a situation like this. Now, again, we always want to think disk time is different. I hope that with technology and with Bitcoin and with everything else in our modern world, we're not going to go back to Mesopotamia or anything, have like a major crash.

1:11:56And I also think that there are release valves, primarily Bitcoin, that could get us out of such a crash. yeah um but this is this is part of the the grand theory yeah so there's this uh physicist sornette uh there's uh jeffrey west they are posing these ideas that we get to this super exponential growth and it happens to be by the way late 2030s where they think that we could get at this faster and faster point where it's just like well what happens next i mean and that that does fit in with the whole ai narrative so well it does it does it does so mathematically what i'm to show you here is faster and faster growth.

1:12:31And so now, again, I'll show you the growth rates. This is exponential growth. This is what I was saying about the interest rate. Like, you can think of this as the interest rate. Think of it as the growth rate of the stock market, whatever. It is the growth rate of the stock market, but also think about interest rate. 2 % in the 1800s is how the stock market grew. When the Fed was founded until 1971, 4.73%. Straight line, compound growth. Take out the noise. Yes, we had the Great Depression, a lot of volatility, whatever. Brass tax, 5 % in the early 1900s. Late 1900s, 9.5%. This is when I was studying finance.

1:13:02We would talk, getting a 10 % return was extreme in the stock market. Now, from 2009 till today, we're at a 12 % per year compounded growth rate. And so basically, so again, I know I'm going through a lot here, Danny, but the bottom line is I'm trying to visualize, and Jeffrey West actually uses this phrase in the book. He says faster and faster treadmills of growth. You can even see it in the stock market if you go far enough back and look. The dollar is, there are many currencies in the currency graveyard, right? Thousands of currencies. I'm not saying, I'm not predicting a collapse of the dollar or whatever imminent.

1:13:51I have no idea. But what we do see with the U.S. stock market, with the dollar, with many currencies, is faster and faster growth rates of debt, faster and faster growth rates of the stock market. And then there's a question, how does that work with Bitcoin's interestingly novel model of being a new digital currency that's not controlled by anybody? But the market is showing a sort of actually declining growth rate, still growing quite fast, but it's scaling in a different way. It's a curious, I think it's a very curious overlay to this question of what could happen with the singularity. So if I put on Bitcoin now, back to our beautiful power curve, hopefully you start to see where I'm going.

1:14:34I don't even know how you meant to read this. Right. So it's the same power curve, but on the right axis, I'm showing trailing 12-month growth. Now, the noisy one is here, right? Trailing 12-month growth. Obviously, you can get thousands of percent, hundreds of percent, whatever.

1:14:54And then it can go negative. Let's just take that off. take the noise off. This is actually a curve trailing 12 month. It's just the trailing 12 month return on the OLS, right? On the average power curve. So now we can start to see the smooth curve of Bitcoin. And then here's, you see we're at that 40 % right there, right? As of today, July 2026, 40 % return,$62 ,000 Bitcoin. If I back this out, I used to have this go out to like 2100. I told you that it's 2070 when it will hit 10%, but let's just look at when it will hit other levels. So it hits 30 % on a curve, Bitcoin power curve in 2031. In 2041, it hits 20%.

1:15:44And in 2070, it hits 10%. So actually that gives you a scale that it's not linear. It's not constant, right? It slows. And even the rate of this slowing, right, can take longer. Right? So 2031, 30%. Right now, 40 % per year. By 2031, it's projected to slow to 30 % a year. By 2041, it's projected to be 20 % per year. If we match that up with this idea of faster and faster treadmills. And who's to say what's going to happen in the next 10 years of the stock market? But we're at 12 % right now. By the way, that's without dividends. So if you reinvest dividends, you got another 2 % on there at least.

1:16:29So you're getting close to 15 % as it is in the stock market. But say we have another crisis, then we have another round of money printing. It does seem like the late 2030s, 2040s, we're going to have some fireworks because based on the models that we have with Bitcoin versus the numeraire, the dollar, this is the growth rate that it's tracking. And it's going to cross with a faster and faster stock market probably by late 2030s, maybe early 2040s. Yeah. The idea of being able to buy like an S &P index and get more returns than buying Bitcoin is weird. And I don't know what it means. Right. Likewise, what it would mean is that Bitcoin has been co-opted into an exponential asset.

1:17:21Saylor has this other sort of way too cheeky way that he describes what he thinks is going to happen. Have you heard him say basically that Bitcoin is going to settle into a 21 % return? I don't know if you've heard him say that. I don't think I've heard him say this what does what does he mean well it's it's what he means that it's going to go exponential and by the way he's never uh give you a little inside baseball on this i know that he's talked to giovanni a little bit he said you know hey congrats on the power law uh giovanni met him at some event and then at these things you can't really talk uh quickly right and you know sailor's obviously an in-demand fella at these conferences and and he tried to get into it a little bit but sailor basically said you know i think it's at the end of the day bitcoin's an exponential asset it's going to grow exponentially.

1:18:06To be clear, none of us that have been studying this for a long time see it right now going exponentially. It could in the future. But what does that mean if it goes exponential? First of all, this growth rate turns into a straight line. So by the way, if you hold Bitcoin, I'm not saying this will be like a bad thing number go up wise, right? It actually would portend, if we go back to this chart, right? The original chart I showed you, exponential versus power, take off log, log, just look at log linear. If we get back on exponential growth, which is the straight line, common sense tells us constant growth is faster than proportional growth.

1:18:43It's going to be good, right? It's going to be good for Bitcoin holders. On the one hand, the number go up. But on the other hand, this is where you get into the idea of, you know, what does that actually mean? Is TradFi co-opting the system? Can anyone claim any Bitcoins on an ETF? Can you withdraw Bitcoins from exchanges after 10 years? There are a lot of things that could play into this. And by the way, if some of those play out, perhaps as some entrance players in Bitcoin want, then I think, yeah, Bitcoin could go exponential. It could match, it could mirror the exponential growth rate of the rest of the financial system.

1:19:20one of my favorite quotes was from thomas pacchia from pub key um he said on a show we did years ago we're all going to be rich and depressed because the project failed and that seems like the example where we're all rich and depressed i actually uh remember that show thomas is a great dude and what he is saying is a hundred percent what i am saying here i'm just trying to show you the math of it i'm trying to show you the math of it so i this is my grand this is my grand theory is Basically, a lot of people that are in the system have a lot of fiat interest that they need to pay back. In order to pay that back, they have to stay above the level of interest.

1:19:57To do that, you have to be exponential. To be exponential, it could require some sacrifices. It could require a lot of fiat interest. It could require you not holding your keys. It could require an overbearing state on here. There's a lot of things that could go into that factor. It also might be a totally different scenario, which is Bitcoin turning the system power. But again, that's a different scenario. Yeah, but I want to know what that scenario is. Because if Bitcoin going exponential is essentially, if we simplify it to that being Bitcoin being co-opted by the financial system as we know it today.

1:20:32Right. What's the inverse of that? What is Bitcoin co-opting the financial system into power? Like, what does that mean? I think it means we started to get into a little bit, but I think it means we're free. There might be some sort of money monopoly. You know, I always say the dollar is the best looking horse in the glue factory, right? It's around for now. It's been around for a long time. There's still thousands and thousands of currencies in the graveyard. I'm not saying the dollar definitely avoids it or definitely doesn't. But if Bitcoin persists globally, and by the way, if mining is free globally, where people can mine, people can trade, people can send, you can withdraw your keys.

1:21:17You know, you've got things like Fetty Mints, super popular, or Chalmian Mints or whatever, whether that's a layered system, which it's going to have to be, obviously. But the layered system is also very, very easy to sort of get back in the castle and get back to on-chain Bitcoins. If all of those things persist, then I think there's a real possibility that we stay in that free cypherpunk Bitcoin world where Bitcoin keeps growing as it is. And then once we do have that crossing point, right, which I also think about a lot, people will start to say, look, I'm not, I don't want to do it. I don't want to put my capital at risk, hope that I get 20 % in the S &P or whatever.

1:21:56I just rather hold Bitcoin. I'll invest in some projects. I'll pay for employees or whatever. But the model might look a little bit different. The model might be more equity. It might be very, very short-term debt, factoring, invoicing type debt. Short-term is the best way I can say it. Because imagine putting these together now. Sorry, not this one, but the stair stepper, right where we 12 percent 50 percent and then the the declining interest rate the only way that this system holds which is the power this mathematical relationship holds is if people sort of for say okay i don't feel like i need to chase apple you know at at 20 percent kegger i'd rather hold bitcoin i'd rather do it a different way and by the way i i'm not sold on either.

1:22:49To me, it's 50-50. It's just 50-50. I see this is why I'm not married that Bitcoin stays power. I think Bitcoin could lose its power function, turn into an exponential like Saylor wants. So back to what he said, he has said this sort of cheeky number like, oh, it just settles into 21 % per year. That's a total number pulled out of thin air. It just obviously has the number 21 and it happens to be 11 percentage points higher than his cost of capital. So it sounds good. There's no evidence in the Bitcoin power curve that it's going to stop at 21 % per year. By the way, 20 % is right out here. 2041.

1:23:26Wait, where is it? There it is. 2040, 2040, 2041. So this is why this is part of my grand theories. This is why I think late 2030s, early 2040s. We're lining up with the Jeffrey West, Sornet singularity idea. Ray Kurzweil, by the way, says the same thing late 2030s. We're lining up with probably$100 trillion valuation in Bitcoin,$100 trillion valuation in base money, and anything goes. By the way, to throw one more chart at you, here's the monetary base. We talk about this a lot, right? I haven't updated this for the third quarter. Sorry, for the first quarter yet, even. I have broad money and base money as of 2020.

1:24:12These things move slower. We can look at Fed balance sheets if you want after this. Weekly, much more updated. Here's the monetary base over 50 years. I don't want to change too many topics, but basically, this is the money supply that's comparable with Bitcoin. It's world central bank money, right? It's about$26.4 trillion as of 2025 year end, 26.4. If you run these same regressions, notice how you're an expert now, Danny, on exponential versus power. You see straight lines on log linear. Base money, it's an exponential function. Notice, where are we in the realm of probabilities? Way low. Way low, right?

1:24:46We need more liquidity. Right, we're at the bottom end. And again, I'm not saying it's going to happen tomorrow. Fed is being a little bit cagey with their minutes. Warsh is, you know, the sort of hawk dove, uh, uh, Griffin sort of, you know, amalgamation. We're not quite sure where he's going to be, but basically, uh, as John Tamney, who has a great book on money, uh, long ago said presidents usually get the federal reserve chairman they want. And we know, uh, what Trump wants. So lower interest rates, more money printing, but anyway, we are at the lower end of the curve globally. We were at the higher end of the curve at 30 trillion in 2021.

1:25:24So here's the point. uh this is another wrench in the uh scenario sorry this further back data which is not really comparable at 50 year data uh you look at this kegger this is the kegger of the exponential ls right there kegger 10.2 percent per year 10.2 percent per year it's actually more interesting there that so i when you pulled up the other chart of the s &p it was two percent way back it's essentially still two percent at 12 percent today

1:25:55uh no no no uh no you mean uh it's essentially essentially growing the way that it was in the 1800s yeah no it's not here's the here's the interesting kick it's another wrench in the formula money supply is actually growing slower since 2008 so is u.s debt so here you might think that it's growing faster we had all this money printing in 2008 and yes it does kind of depend on where your starting date when you do these regressions. But I started year-end 2008, by the way, same time that Bitcoin started. So this is 1971 trend. So you see the trend here, 10.2 % CAGR. Here's another chart where I started in 2008.

1:26:34Notice first chart, second chart, first chart, second chart. When you start the regression later, it's actually shallower growth. And I'll show you the CAGR, 7.7. So in the last 15, 20 years, I believe that the powers that be, the whatever, the central banks, they realize how bad they screwed the pooch in 2006, 7 and 8 with low interest rates and everything else and the bailouts now. So they're very cautious actually about extending - How is that possible? How is it lower? When we know they're printed trillions and trillions of dollars over the last, especially over the last like six years, 2020, 2021.

1:27:18Right. The bottom line is they don't always print money. They print more, they print less. You know, the Federal Reserve wasn't printing money from 2014 until 2020. Yeah. A lot of people don't sort of know that. Now, other currencies were, you see it was generally going up and there's a huge spike in 2020, 2021. But since, you know, this is a long five years now where we've taken the money supply back from 30 trillion down to 26. And if you just run the math from 2008, when Bitcoin started until today, this is the actual CAGR. It's only like 8%. So let's just round it. 8%, 7.7%, 8 % versus 10 % over the 50 years, all in dollar terms.

1:28:04By the way, not to throw another wrench in it, but it's actually probably, both are probably faster than that. Because if you measure, if you do these regressions all in their native currency and then take the average, it looks different than if you do it in dollar terms. It's showing dollar supremacy because they get weaker against the dollar. I don't want to throw too much wrench in that, but they are printing a little bit faster than this in their native term. It's true, weighted globally. Let's forget that for now. 10 % versus 8%. 10 % 50-year trend, 8 % 2008 trend in the money supply, that's another wrench in the curve or another wrench in the calculation where I think they are well aware of the damage that they have done in intervening in the market so much.

1:28:50They think that they have all these tools like paying interest on reserves and they're just more cautious, so on and so forth. And actually, the data shows it. Like U.S. federal debt has the same trend. Since until 2008, U.S. federal debt was growing faster than it has been since 2008. It still grows. It's still huge, right? I mean, this is the nature of compounding. But that exponential trend over the epoch is slightly slower. So again, it's a little bit of a wrench in the thesis of this one where the stock market for sure is growing faster. so does it matter if they're aware of the issues with that trend because like when push comes to shove if they need to they're still going to print money sure they will yeah we can be sure that that's the main thing that they know how to do and that's how they deal with crises is to add liquidity or basically add zeros to uh banks accounts with them at their master account so it's a digital money print that they do as opposed to a physical they also do physical money print.

1:29:54And they have started too, right? The Fed balance sheet is growing again after a few years of doing nothing but drop essentially. Right. Here's the Fed balance sheet. You see, it has been growing since November of last year, ever so slightly, and maybe even cresting a little bit. And then we have, you know, sort of hawkish dovish mixed signals from the new Fed group. They're not really, they're very, they just released their minutes this week and they're very cagey, but some people think they might even hike in September. We'll see. But I think I have one of the ECB as well. No, this is the ECB balance sheet.

1:30:33Okay. So it's about 6.12 trillion euros. Again, when I say balance sheet for people that are new to this, it's the monetary base. This is the asset side. The liability side is mostly the monetary base. There's a little bit of other things sometimes, but just keep it simple. ECB, since it's been founded in 1999, has grown its balance sheet at a KG of 10.6%. So notice that's actually similar to the 50-year curve, but they as well are at the bottom end, the bottom end of the analysis.

1:31:07Time to short fiat and buy Bitcoin. Yeah, yeah. So it all looks good, I would say, if we assume that money printing is good for Bitcoin, if we assume there might be some more instability in a very unstable, exponentially growing system. And we assume that Bitcoin is a sort of more stable power asset that is still growing tremendously at 40 % per year and, by the way, discounted to its lowest percentile quantiles. All that looks good. But the grand theory, as we've sort of been touching on and off in this episode, is I think it's, you know, late 2030s, Maybe even a little bit later, as I said, they can push, if they really want to, they can take off the gas.

1:31:53And they did that last five years. So it's just the nature. All I do is measure this stuff, Danny. I try to give people the best way to look at this stuff just by measuring rather than talking. But I'm giving you hard facts, hard data. Stock markets growing faster, exponentially growing, sort of stair-stepper, super exponential growth. base money is actually it's growing fast but it's over the last 15 20 years it's actually growing a slower rate of return uh u.s debt as well so there's a mix there but if we want to come back and just think about bitcoin as this asset we try to grow it uh measure it how it's growing and everything it's it's uh it's looking pretty good never financial advice always and one more thing just to show you here if we take the uh lows let's say you bought in the low here Let's actually even show you the evolving exponential trend, which is here, right?

1:32:51Which we talked about this one. Let's say in 2022, when Peter Zion was saying it was overvalued, you held it just until here, we got back to trend. Okay, this window is 2022, December, until we got here. The window is a little bit wider, but what you see, I'll just show you the dates. what I just zoomed in was 2022 December 7th until holding until 2024 March. That's actually when the price got from its low to trend. Let's look at the actual CAGR that you could have earned. Right there. 176%. When the trend itself

1:33:33well this is a little bit different because it's evolving. Let me go back to this one just to show you the trend at the time. uh here we go roughly here to there i said you know it could have even gotten 197 right if you bought whatever it's gonna be slightly off 180 190 keger the trend itself at the time was 48 48 was the power curve trend now we're down to 40 so you can still in bitcoin make many multiples over the trend even though i tell you again and again again i tell people it's doubling every tiers, but that doubling time will increase. The rate of growth will decrease. You can still, if you pick the right moments, and by the way, now seems to be a right moment and six months from now could still be the right moment.

1:34:17I'm not saying we're out of this bearish period, but if you have the whole encompassing view, you understand statistics, you understand how this stuff is working. Statistically, we're in a very good place for a bullish Bitcoin hodler. yeah who knows if it's the bottom but it's not an area you're probably going to regret buying um the interesting thing to me is this whatever happens mid to late 2030s it's like perfectly in the first turning two worlds bitcoin and the financial system collide who knows what happens but that's exciting i can't wait to see it yeah it really is like we'll be here for it right danny i I think it's, if you look for it, you will find all sorts of crazy numbers, conspiracies, thoughts about, you know, if gold's coming back or whatever.

1:35:06But, you know, if we can measure the Bitcoin system, measure the TradFi system, there's a lot of interesting things happening in late 2030. So I think that's pretty cool. Another thing, just one more here, or we can go longer if you want, but there's another chart. There's UTXOs I like to show. So let's say Bitcoin is the benchmark now. How strong are different currencies within that? And actually, Bitcoin is going to become that true measuring stick. So here now, this is the same power curve, but I'm using it. I'm starting everything at one on Bitcoin Pizza Day, May 22nd, 2010. So it's the same exact curve, but the numbers aren't really going to make sense.

1:35:51It's just you can see the power curve. Bitcoin itself is up 15 million times. So good on the person that bought them from Lazlo, right? Since Bitcoin pizza day, 15.5 million times. And the power curve is up 34 million times. So you see the discount on the power curve there. We're at 45 % under the curve. So this is the dollar. Is there a currency that I found that is actually stronger? Stronger would be lower than the dollar. There is. It happens to be the Swiss franc. just slightly just slightly alright so the Swiss franc is is only up 10 million only you're only up 10.6 million in Swiss franc terms since Bitcoin pizza day alright but it's very similar right it's almost identical but it's just we can say that relative to bitcoin the Swiss franc is the strongest dollars next but then here's here's something cool let's look at weaker currencies like way weaker let's look at turkey Turkish lira.

1:36:45They had the right idea of actually lowering interest rates during massive inflation. That was their sort of policy a few years ago. So here you see Bitcoin is doing very well against the Turkish lira. If you are denominated in lira, you need to save your purchasing power. You'd have 459 million more times Turkish lira if you had bought those Bitcoins in 2010. Again, And the number is not important. It's the level of these colors, basically, or the currencies. And now look at this. Let's do the power curve on that. Talk about the power curve breaking, Danny. The Turkish lira hasn't even broken.

1:37:24It's above its power curve, its power regression, which I think is pretty interesting. Now, it's probably going to go under it. And if past this prologue, it has. Notice how in the last cycle, it was under its power curve much shorter than the more dominant global currencies of the dollar and the franc were. So that's interesting. Now let's look at the Argentine peso, just one more.

1:37:52Let me find it for you. BTCRs. There we go. And this, by the way, is the official bank rate. It's even worse in reality. This is not the black market rate, but just to show you. so there you'd have uh 5.8 billion times more argentine pesos if you bought bought the you know bitcoin with those pesos back in the day in 2010 and then let's look at the power curve on that it's not even close to the curve it's never coming back so that shows you by the way uh this idea of breaking is the power curve breaking actually in all currencies it's power curve. There's a little bit different slopes. There's different levels.

1:38:34None of them have broken. And in fact, in two of these currencies out of four that I'm showing you in this chart, the price of those currencies relative to the curve that they manifest themselves in the Bitcoin market, it's actually above. It's above trend. Probably going to go below soon in the case of Turkey if we have a couple more months of bearishness, but that's how it looks. man matt this has been awesome i love that we've done like an hour and a half on the power curve i i initially thought this would be like 15 minutes of the conversation but it's been awesome um but we'll just have to do it again at some point thank you uh thank you for sticking with us i know you've got a sick kid over there but um appreciate you guys for dealing again at some point with the takes and uh i appreciate it tell everyone why they can go check out your YouTube channel, Pocopolis, everything you do.

1:39:24Yeah, you can find me at all the platforms at OneBaseMoney, so the number one base money. Podcasts, streams, whatever, you just go there on Twitter or YouTube and you'll find my account. And yeah, this is a lot of what I'm doing now every day is just trying to dig into the numbers of how these trends work in the Bitcoin world and in the TradFile world, trying to reconcile them. And like you said, it's going to be an interesting next few years. I'm glad to be sharing it with you and others in the space, man. So happy to do it anytime. When are you going to open this up so I can use these charts?

1:40:02Soon. Hopefully by the fall. Hopefully by the fall, you'll be ready to go. I know. I know. It's an effort. Like I said, I'm more applied statistics guy. So I don't want to just go only this. I want to get you some economic data, some money supply data, some other things. trying to get it all together here shortly i will be a subscriber when you do it appreciate you man thank you no problem danny