The $1 Trillion Bitcoin Loan Market Is Coming | Mauricio Di Bartolomeo

10 Aug 2026 · 1 h 17 min · 27 chapters

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In short

Ledn’s Bitcoin-backed lending outlook, risk controls (AutoTopUp, partial liquidations), and why “no liquidation” claims may just shift risk to lenders; also discusses Ledn’s Tether Gold product and a Bitcoin loan securitization rated investment-grade by S&P.

Guest

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, likely a Ledn executive/product leader focused on Bitcoin credit. He describes Ledn as operating since 2018, originating $11B+ loans, and being first to get S&P to rate a Bitcoin product investment-grade.

Key claims

  • A $1T Bitcoin-backed loan market could emerge in 5–10 years.
  • Borrowing outcomes depend more on planning/sizing and diligence than the borrow price.
  • AutoTopUp adoption is ~40% of loans; with it, 0 liquidations among users in the current year (per his stats).
  • Partial liquidations will replace full closure at 80% LTV by selling enough BTC to restore ~65% LTV.
  • “No liquidation” offerings are often economically equivalent to hedging; true risk can’t be removed without cost or lender insolvency risk.

Notable examples

  • March 14, 2020 COVID crash cited as an extreme drawdown; modeled loans would require ~50% more BTC within 24–48 hours.
  • BlockFi and BlockFi-like failures attributed to mismanaged options/hedging and unsecured yield lending.
  • SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s warning about DeFi “handstands” and unregulated protocol risk.
  • Ledn securitization: $200M loan book packaged from 5,000+ loans across 30+ countries; S&P rated it investment-grade.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

The Future of Bitcoin-Backed Loans

0:00 to 0:25

Explore the potential growth of Bitcoin-backed loans and investment-grade ratings.

“We believe and we estimate that in not too long, five to ten years, there's going to be a trillion dollars worth of Bitcoin-backed loans out there.”

Market Dynamics and Borrowing Behavior

0:25 to 2:30

Discuss the current market conditions influencing borrowing decisions and risk assessment.

“This is the first true, in my opinion, Bitcoin credit instrument.”

Planning for Bitcoin Loans

2:30 to 4:10

Learn how meticulous planning can affect outcomes in Bitcoin loans.

“And so it went to the loan, but they didn't budge the LTV much.”

AutoTopUp Feature Explained

4:10 to 6:10

Understand the AutoTopUp feature and its benefits for managing Bitcoin loans.

“AutoTopUp adoption is up to like 40 % of our loans right now.”

Partial Liquidations and Risk Management

6:10 to 8:30

Discuss the introduction of partial liquidations and how it mitigates risk.

“Like there were some tickets that were, because I saw some of these transfers coming in.”

Case Studies of Borrowers

8:30 to 12:41

Examine real-life scenarios of borrowers and their experiences with loans.

“will when else are we, well, I assume will we get a global pandemic that closes the economy?”

Introduction to RBX and Tax Efficiency

14:00 to 14:36

Learn how RBX can help Bitcoin ETF holders reduce management fees and defer taxes.

“spot Bitcoin ETF shares into real on-chain Bitcoin.”

Risks in Bitcoin-Backed Loans

14:41 to 18:32

Understand the risks associated with Bitcoin-backed loans and the competition in lending.

“But there are companies coming out saying they can do loans without this now, without the risk of liquidation.”

Hedging Strategies in Crypto Loans

18:32 to 22:59

Explore the complexities of hedging in Bitcoin loans and the implications for borrowers.

“would the amount of money that you made on that not cover the rest of the collateral that was put up?”

DeFi Risks and Market Dynamics

22:59 to 28:01

Examine the risks of DeFi protocols and the importance of regulation in crypto lending.

“There was a statement that came out yesterday or yesterday or this morning from Hester Pierce, the SEC Commissioner of Crypto Mom.”
Show all 27 chapters

Risks in DeFi and Regulatory Concerns

28:01 to 31:14

Explore the inherent risks in decentralized finance and ongoing regulatory challenges.

The Evolution of Bitcoin-Backed Loans

31:14 to 33:38

Understand the development and current state of Bitcoin-backed loans and their implications.

“You read it, you got comfortable, you took your loan, you paid it back, no problem.”

Bitcoin Custody and Family Protection

33:38 to 35:44

Learn about the importance of Bitcoin custody solutions for family security.

“And I do think that the industry is in a better place today than it was four years ago.”

Bitcoin Custody and Family Protection

36:16 to 36:26

Learn about the importance of Bitcoin custody solutions for family security.

“Bitcoin is only generational wealth if it can actually be passed down through the generations.”

Bitcoin Custody and Family Protection

37:12 to 38:07

Learn about the importance of Bitcoin custody solutions for family security.

“That's C-A-P-E dot co forward slash WBD.”

Introducing Tether Gold and Its Advantages

38:07 to 42:00

Discuss Tether Gold's model and its potential to revolutionize gold ownership.

“So I'd want to ask you another question about reducing volatility in these loans.”

Exploring Gold-Backed Loans

42:00 to 46:21

Learn about the advantages and considerations of integrating gold into loan offerings alongside Bitcoin.

“So there's, like, I've got no problem with gold.”

Ledin's Groundbreaking Bond Offering

46:21 to 50:34

Discover Ledin's historic Bitcoin-backed loan securitization and its implications for the credit market.

“Um, we should get onto the other thing that you, we, we've had so many announcements since we last spoke.”

Investment Grade Bonds and Their Importance

50:34 to 56:00

Understand the significance of reaching investment grade for bonds and how it affects market demand.

“And the second they do that, the risk shoots.”

Understanding Bitcoin Credit Instruments

56:00 to 58:26

Learn about the new bitcoin credit instrument and market interest.

“The TradFi people, like the guys that work in banking and the people that understand this, people were reaching out to us and saying, wow, I can't believe you guys did this.”

Optimism in a Bear Market

58:26 to 1:00:31

Explore the resilience of the bitcoin market amid downturns and the future of loans.

“But in terms of like how well everything is running on our side, like the solid foundation that we're on, like the bond, you know, the support of our investors, the support of like our clients.”

The Fall of Maduro and Its Aftermath

1:00:31 to 1:03:28

Discover the events surrounding Maduro's fall and the impact on Venezuelans.

“If anyone wants to listen to that, you should go back and listen to that show.”

Post-Maduro Landscape and Earthquake Impact

1:03:28 to 1:10:02

Analyze the political shifts in Venezuela post-Maduro and the effects of the earthquake.

Political Dynamics in Venezuela

1:10:02 to 1:11:33

Discusses the political situation in Venezuela and the role of foreign aid.

“And so what people saw in La Guayra was like the people helping them were American, not the Venezuelan regime.”

Shifts in Military and Political Power

1:11:33 to 1:13:12

Explores changes in military power dynamics and optimism for the future.

“And I think I was making the point that he sounds really sort of positive and enthusiastic and like there could be change.”

The Path to Rebuilding Venezuela

1:13:12 to 1:15:01

Covers the challenges and excitement of rebuilding infrastructure in Venezuela.

“Previously, we were just trying to find the bottom.”

Personal Aspirations and Dreams

1:15:01 to 1:16:15

Shares personal reflections on the future and potential involvement in Venezuela's recovery.

“The power still runs out every so often.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:02We believe and we estimate that in not too long, five to ten years, there's going to be a trillion dollars worth of Bitcoin-backed loans out there. We need to know where you're going to get a trillion dollars. There's no balance sheet in the world that can cough up a trillion dollars. We were the first company to ever do this. It is the first time S &P has ever rated a Bitcoin product and it's the first time that it's given an investment-grade rating to a Bitcoin product. This is the first true, in my opinion, Bitcoin credit instrument. There is a maturity and there is a coupon and there is bankruptcy remoteness.

0:40All right, Mau. Cheers, man. Cheers, man. Good to see you. Great to see you. Thank you for coming in for this. Hey, man. My pleasure. I've got, I listened to you on Natalie's show. And you said, people don't wake up in the morning and think today's a good day for a loan. That's not true. About two months ago, when Bitcoin price crashed, I woke up, looked at it and went, today's a good day for a loan. That's fair. And I didn't mean that to be sort of like an absolute statement. Like there are times in the market where you see something you like and asset comes by and you're like, that's the day.

1:14But it's usually driven because of an opportunity that lands on your lap. or it's not something that you just take for the sake of having it. You take a loan to deploy it typically, right? Most people don't borrow to keep the money borrowed. But that's more so what I meant. But yes, to your point, we are, and this I know sounds a little bit counterintuitive to some people, but we are seeing a big pickup in first-time borrowers right now because a lot of people feel much more comfortable borrowing at 60 versus 120 because they're sizing the potential risk of a drawdown. I've done basically both of those.

1:51I've already bought 100k last year at some point. And that one had to be topped up a couple of times. And this is a good segue, which is like the price at which you borrow almost shouldn't matter because you should be planning appropriately, regardless of whatever price you're in. If you're 120 and you think we're going to 60, you want to have enough Bitcoin to withstand that. if you think we're going to 40 even from 120 you should have enough bitcoin to withstand that so we to me that's the biggest determinant of whether a person has a great outcome or a person gets caught off guard is how much time do you spend planning sizing up the loan how many diligence questions you ask and there's like a direct correlation between the people that are diligent and plan and ask questions and do like you know take out the loan and they keep until they want to and they never get liquidated and these are the people that you know have great experiences and then there's also there's cases at times where life also happens right like you may have had that budget but something else happened and you had to use some of that budget and then all of a sudden it caught you off guard um or it caught you traveling and you didn't set up auto top up um right like that's happened um and so didn't that happen when we were in sydney which one did it did it not happen with you while you were traveling for me for my own loan yeah well it's happened to me it's happened to me before like you know every like not every member i want to say i don't know about every member but like definitely no it was sorry i got it totally wrong it was happened to me while we were in sydney together yes um because i had i was getting the emails yes oh yeah we were having we were sitting having that drink yeah i remember now and you're like damn uh but that happens right and that that's why we built auto top up and like i said you know that saved me like things and it saved a ton of people um it's it's not a single person this year by the way and and the statistics are you know 99.9 because i as i mentioned in nico's show there's been case or one case of a guy that didn't leave auto top up on but had dust.

3:59And so it went to the loan, but they didn't budge the LTV much. But every single person that's used AutoTopUp this year with a Bitcoin balance in their transaction account, none of those people have been liquidated. None of them. AutoTopUp adoption is up to like 40 % of our loans right now. Damn. Which is, we love to see it. Bear market things though, right? Correct. Right. And bear markets, people start thinking more about, hey, downside protection, which makes a lot of sense. Right. One thing that I can share here, which I'm really happy, is very soon, Atletic will be rolling out partial liquidations.

4:28So today, if your loan hits 80 % LTV, the loan gets fully closed. When we move to partial liquidations, we will only be selling enough Bitcoin to bring the LTV back to 65 and the loan remains open for whatever amount is left. That's very cool. Yeah, and again, it's more so about trying to be as, you know, trying to do the bare minimum to cure the loan as opposed to and give you the options. Yeah, because you're on the same, you're like, you're on the same team in that. like you don't want to take anyone's bitcoin no i i we we only make money when the loans are open yeah right and we want people to keep their loans open if they need them yeah right i'm not ever going to tell somebody take a loan you don't need but so long as you want you don't want to have it closed we don't want to have that happen to you either and so we want to do whatever like that's what we built out of top of that's why we're moving to partial liquidations that's why we have the the planning tools in the website you can say okay if i take my tv now and frequent price goes to x where do i get liquidated how much more bitcoin will i need so a lot of those things you can do proactively and you'd be surprised how well it works i know it sounds trivial but some a lot of people just do you know not a lot but like i would say people some people take action um impulse like impulse driven action and they don't really think about bitcoin going down um so that's why you know I emphasize just plan, run the math, run the scenarios, keep the Bitcoin aside and have an action plan.

5:56Also, some people wait till the very last minute to top up their loans from external addresses. And then they try to send that transfer. Network's congested. I wish it was congested. It's never congested anymore. No, but in the February drawdown, there was some congestion. Like there were some tickets that were, because I saw some of these transfers coming in. Some were taking hours to confirm it also depends on what fees you're putting in some people are putting in like very low fees and they got stuck and so again just don't a block might just not be found for an hour like who knows let's you know you have to just plan and not ever try to take it to be proactive right like if you're being proactive the best thing i love is when people proactively top up their loans before they even get a notification before the top up kicks in yeah like people are on it yeah these are the things that i think about a lot because obviously you guys sponsor the show.

6:46Thank you very much, by the way. But like, I think Lennon's an awesome product. I use it. And I think people who need to take out a loan against the Bitcoin, there's no better place to look. The problem is I struggle when I'm trying to like advertise it to be, I want to be really meaningful and cautious with my words because like, if you do this wrong, it can really get you in some trouble. Done right, it can be a super useful, powerful tool, but done wrong, it can get you in trouble. And so how do you try and suggest people first start thinking about this? Yeah, so obviously in terms of probabilistically things that can happen, obviously there's a wide range of probabilities.

7:26Anything's possible, right? But if you look at the models, because we run models and try to assess historical drawdowns and what that would look like if you do alone. And the most aggressive drawdown we've had in Bitcoin and since Lettend's been around was the March 14th, 2020 crash. Of course, the COVID crash. That was a 50 % drop in a matter of 24 to 48 hours. Yeah, it was in two days or something crazy. No, Bitcoin has never seen a drop like that. Even in these price, these bear markets are bear markets for ants compared to those bear markets. And in that case, if you run the model of a loan that started January 1st, 2020 and experienced the COVID crash, that person had to add 50 % more Bitcoin relative to the original collateral.

8:13So about half of what you put in initially to cure that drop. And the additional problem there is it's not like you're drip feeding that over months. That had to be done in a day. Correct. So that one was like a pretty bit I'm trying to put it into the extremes so that you can, you know, the likelihood of that happening again will when else are we, well, I assume will we get a global pandemic that closes the economy? I don't know. but it's happened before and so in that most extreme case that person needed to come up with 50 of the original bitcoin in 24 hours immediately right and so of course i i i share that example more as uh from a from a quantum size perspective right i would recommend that you should have at least an equal amount of bitcoin than you're using for the initial loan yeah available and ready and And when I mean available and ready, I don't mean I have to go to three vaults to get my keys and authorize the thing and it's going to take me two days.

9:12That's not available and ready because you might need to respond faster than that. So when I say available and ready, I mean something that you can feasibly transfer or if most people do it, not most, but about 40 % of people do it now. They send the Bitcoin to that and proactively, they leave it in the transaction account, which is a custody account. We don't do anything with that Bitcoin. It's just to service the loan if and when you want to use it. Turn on AutoTopUp. That Bitcoin sitting in that transaction account is not part of your collateral. You can withdraw it at any time. It's just there in case your loan needs it at 2 a.m.

9:48on a Tuesday. If Bitcoin ripped and your LTV went down to 20 % and you now have released excess Bitcoin or you want to keep it at 20 just so you don't have to think about it, you can turn off AutoTopUp, withdraw that Bitcoin. and not have to think about it anymore. But it's really, for those who want to use it, it's meant to give you the option. And it came from, we had a few clients, but in particular, there was a few guys who had these cabins up in Northern Canada. And they would go for months. And they were like, I'm not going to have any cell phone. I'm not going to have my keys. I need you guys to help me protect my loan.

10:27How do I respond in this situation? and we said well we built auto top up and we said okay well how about we do this we will let you um keep a balance here we'll move it if and when the loan needs it loved it you know this guy loved it another guy um had a similar situation because he went on uh boating trips a lot not the sarcastic boating trips but the real boating trips yeah yeah um and so he was also uh having issues or not issues but was concerned yeah and so we built auto top up and that's really the the the intent behind it and um and people are increasingly more and more using it which we love to see uh and we'll continue to do more things to protect people against volatility and the downside which we can segue into another point which is in these bear markets it's also a natural thing that people are thinking about the downside right like what's the worst that happen how do i protect my loan right and there's um there's no uh free lunch in life okay like if it was easy to get rid of liquidations or margin calls or this type of setup we would have figured it out for equities in the 200 years we've been lending against them absolutely or gold or we would have found a way not to evict people when they default on a mortgage right like it These things are very hard to do at scale and responsibly.

11:50If you hold Bitcoin long enough, there's going to come a time when you need some dollars. It might be a tax bill, a business expense, life getting in the way, but whatever it is, it might come at a time when you don't want to sell your Bitcoin. That's where Ledin comes in. Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin instead, with tiered rates that go as low as 9.25%. So you don't have to sell your stack if you don't want to. Ledin have operated through every market cycle since 2018 and have originated over$11 billion in loans. But the important part for me is the way Ledin handles these loans. Your collateral is held in custody and never lent out to generate interest.

12:21And Ledin's more than just loans. Tether Gold is now live alongside your Bitcoin with instant trading across 10 pairs. And later this year, you'll be able to borrow against gold in the same way that you do with Bitcoin. Ledin really is an awesome company. I've used them multiple times. The applications have taken less than 15 minutes and you have the dollars in your account within hours. If you want to check out Ledin, go to ledn.io and use the code WBD for 0.25 % off your first loan. That's ledn.io and use the code WBD. Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin? Of course you do.

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14:40That's swan.com forward slash WBD. But there are companies coming out saying they can do loans without this now, without the risk of liquidation. What concerns me, and I'm starting to see some risk creep in the Bitcoin back loan space again um bitcoin back loan space or general crypto back loan space well the the the most of the emphasis right now is in bitcoin back loans because really that's been proven to be like the best collateral out of the crypto native assets right and so everybody's trying to do bitcoin back loans now and they're always trying to compete with the established players like us and they can't completely compete on reputation many of them don't even have proof of reserve so what they try to do is they try to basically offer some of these things that are too good to be true at prices that are too good to be true right like hedging options exist right they you can even take them proactively and you can they're more cost effective but when you buy to buy a hedge when you need the hedge it's very very expensive and so you know we are we at Lettend we are exploring um a lot of these ways to protect and hopefully allow clients to uh extend the liquidation or protect them against the liquidation but so this is why you're doing like the partial liquidations Correct.

15:55That's a step in that direction. But at the core, okay, when you're doing collateralized loan, there is a risk of the collateral going under the value of the loan that was issued. And that creates a problem. That creates risk that has to be managed. Okay. In the current model, that risk sits with the borrower. Okay. And the borrower is supposed to be managing that risk. If the borrower fails to manage that risk, that's a problem for the borrower. yeah okay when you try to do these don't worry we won't liquidate you mathematically you there was always the probability that you will have to liquidate the the the fact that the collateral value can drop below the loan amount doesn't change because you told me that i'm not going to liquidate you the risk is just being transferred from the borrower to the lender and the problem with that is that if the lender is not being clear about how they are offloading that risk and how they are managing that risk, if the lender gets an issue or has a problem, that's everybody's problem.

17:01That's every borrower in that platform's problem. So what I have, and I've seen... And you say that because if it puts the lender's balance sheet at risk, then everyone's in trouble. Correct. The lender's insolvent. And so the missing piece out of a lot of these offerings that have been mentioned or named out to the market is... what are you doing in the back? Because the prices that you're charging, if you look at the premiums that some of these companies say, oh, you pay 1%, 2%, and we won't liquidate your loan. Go price that put option. Go price that put option. You go price that put option.

17:39Price the hedge. Don't take it from me. Price the hedge. What would it be? If you want to do it on a 12-month term, roughly between 8 % to 10%. It's like the going rate to hedge a put a year out. If you try to shorten the term, that starts dropping a little bit. But when we've priced these and we've looked at some of these structures, you end up, for a full year term, basically having to double the price of the loan. If the rate is roughly 10, you have to basically pay another 10 to insure the loan or protect the loan. But importantly, you're not saying you won't liquidate the loan. If the loan is below the 80 % LTV when the hedge runs out, you still have to liquidate.

18:22You see what I mean? Yeah. And so you're just deferring. Wait, so I don't pretend to know how option markets work. So when that contract, the put option closed, would the amount of money that you made on that not cover the rest of the collateral that was put up? But that means that you're now basically saving that loan at 80 % because you're hedging to 80%. So at the end of the term, you have a loan at 80%. I see. So either the loan basically gets topped up to a healthier LTV so that it allows it to renew, or you're not able to renew the loan. And that's if the hedge, everything worked out. And so the challenge with that is there's still a scenario where, great, the hedge is here.

19:11The hedge makes up the difference to get to the 80 % LTV, so the loan never went underwater. But it's not whole. But the hedge runs out. right and so yeah fine you get the economic benefit of the hedge and the loan sits at 80 % and maturity what then right how are you going to hedge 80 % for another 12-month term the price is going to be astronomical because the price of a hedge to 80 when you're at 50 is much cheaper than the price of a hedge to 80 when you're at 80 yeah and so it there is no free lunch in that sense like you're always just moving risk around if that makes sense and so what the companies that are offering this what do they suggest you do at the end of the 12 months and would you have to would you have to roll it i don't think that there are any of these offerings that have been out for longer than the term of the loans yeah so we don't know um i don't really know it but more importantly what i what i think is a much better question is how are you ensuring that you the lender are going to be safe.

20:12And we're doing this right. Like, I'll give you the example of Blockfields. Blockfields was a firm that was doing loans and they dealt in the options market. And a lot of people like to conveniently not remember this, but they just blew up earlier this year. See, I actually found out about that on the show I recorded before this. I had never even heard of them. Yeah. So they were trying to do these things. And of course, they didn't hedge it properly. They made a hole and they became insolvent. Is that what blew them up? Well, I mean, you can look at the filings, but basically that is, in my interpretation of the facts and the activities that I knew they did, that is my running assumption about what happened.

20:53And it was most likely it was options related. So it was either a loan that you didn't hedge or you sold an option and you didn't buy the option in the back. You didn't hedge the options, right? You kept the risk and you didn't have the balance sheet to absorb that loss. It's funny because I was going to say to you, it looks like the entire space has matured a lot. Because last bear market we had, Celsius, FTX, BlockFi, FTX weren't lending, but all of these companies that were trying to do yield on Bitcoin and lending products that didn't manage their risk properly and blew up. I think you were one of the only lenders that actually survived that bear market.

21:32Has it got better? It has. it has in many ways it has in many ways in that right now rehypothecation is a dirty word right like most of the programs that are out there right now at least claim they're not rehypothecating which is a good thing which is a good thing and not a lot of people are uh well not not not as many as i would like to see are doing proof of reserves but there are some more proof of reserves coming around um you know that in that sense it's good there's also a big emphasis on bitcoin as collateral, there's not as much of a push to do basic attention token-backed loans or Dogecoin-backed loans.

22:09If you remember right before the blow-up, Doge was all the rage. Companies like Gemini were coming out with yield products for Doge. I did not know that they did yield products for that. That's crazy. Yeah. And so, again, what brought down many of these companies in large part was not their collateralized lending it was their yield products yeah because they were taking in the billions of dollars in tokens and to generate the yield they had to lend those assets unsecured and they lent them to groups like three arrows and when three arrows blows up they don't have the money to pay back these guys don't have the money to pay those guys insolvency close the doors bankruptcies yeah so um the other thing is um again you know going to this staying on this topic of risk creep, right?

23:01There was a statement that came out yesterday or yesterday or this morning from Hester Pierce, the SEC Commissioner of Crypto Mom. And it says, stop doing handstands and somersaults or summer vaults, she said, to avoid regulation. Because what's happening right now is you're starting to see some of these DeFi offerings that are all unregulated and many of them younger than my four-year-old are getting wrapped up and put in front of regulated fintech frontends. Is this things like Morpho? An example of that, yes. Because people go into a platform of a branded exchange and they swear they're borrowing from the branded exchange.

23:48They are not. There is no liability to the branded exchange when you're taking these protocol loans. I don't know if you can't say or don't want to say, but this is like Morpho and Coinbase. Yeah, it is. It's one example. And so, again, the statement, and this is TBD and 2BY, wait to see how this plays out. But DeFi is this interesting thing where none of these parts of the Legos, none of these financial Legos are regulated. None of these Legos have any sort of governance restrictions. They are run by these DAOs. Nobody knows who the actual people are. There's a foundation over here and there's a DAO over there.

24:34Nobody's responsible for these issues. For example, we just had the AVA issue. There was going to be a loss. I don't even know what happened here. Sorry, I don't pay much attention to Crypto World. The Kelp DAO hack, you weren't paying attention to that? Honestly, my knowledge of the broader crypto space is embarrassing. Well, listen, not to get into a whole DeFi thing, but I think this year so far has been the biggest year for DeFi exploits to date. And I guess the point I'm trying to make is these protocols get exploited almost on the daily, right? And many times the protocol is big enough or has a big enough treasury or the community rallies so that there's no losses.

25:16We haven't been through a DeFi insolvency event just yet. As in, an example would be with Aave, right? Like there was a bad actor that came in with fake collateral, borrowed$200 million. Oh, I did see this. One click,$200 million, whoop. And then you said, well, what about the collateral? The collateral is worthless. So the protocol is out$200 million, right? And so in that moment, you say, okay, what happened in DeFi, which is super interesting, is that the permanently online people that see the flows said oh my god there's something wrong i'm pulling my money out so everybody pulled their money like the people that were there the fastest pull their money out of course all of a sudden withdrawals stopped because there's no more liquidity liquidity to process more withdrawals and now who's left inside the bag we don't know because it's defy but i would bear i would suspect that it's the more vulnerable not permanently online dgens yeah that are just going to get we left holding the bag and so the funny well the parallel in traditional finance is when there is an event of insolvency the operator has a legal obligation to freeze everything in the accounts like to freeze activities and then they need to see they put up what's called a preference window okay so if you are seen to have been furiously pulling out your assets immediately after the event or right before the event and this is something you had never done before you either were tipped off or you were able to respond faster than others and you came out with your money intact and everybody else was left holding the bag and that's what you wanted because you wanted to save yourself okay in the cefi world it doesn't work that way in the cify world if you got out with either privileged information or during the preference period that's unfair yeah to the people left holding the bag and that's where consumer protections and a lot of these things kick in where you say hold on danny like great that you were permanently online but it's not fair for you to walk away unscratched and for billy to lose 70 of and we saw this happen with blockfire and all these correct and celsius is still going through it like there's some of these are still ongoing yeah um but the fact remains is that every single c5 bankruptcy has had what's called recoveries so if you were there and you lost some money a court or an estate sued everybody they had to sue collected as much as they could and here you go danny um this is your fair share of what was left yeah there are no guardrails like this in defi um and this is why i think there's such a um um an emergency in the community whenever there's a potential loss in DeFi that has to be attributed because the second you have to attribute the loss you're going to have to answer some really tough questions which is who got out like do we know who got out we don't it's DeFi how do you how do you legally go after that person you can't right and then the other question is who's to blame like how much are you going to take how much am I going to take a lot of these things in court like in bankruptcy law a lot of it is stipulated but DeFi doesn't have this and so again I think that there's inherent risk and the way that historically we've had people pile on to risk is we dismiss it number one we say no that's not a risk this is all programmatic we we got our bases covered like with BlockFi asking me if you ask blockfi was what's the real risk we have the best team with the best this with the best and lo and behold you know they they didn't have it and the second one is you create a too good to be true offering right so you juice up the returns if you're asking people to deposit for yield and you make the borrow rate absurdly low um even today right you have some fintechs earning you through a program that pays you seven percent and that same protocol is lending on a different fintech at five and so the math doesn't math and this is what concerns me and so you're starting to see the warning not warning but i think this statement from the sec is sort of uh hey guys if you're doing financial transactions on chain that doesn't remove the fact that these are financial transactions and that somebody and some of these financial transactions must be regulated right um i think that that's starting to become more of a thing because these protocols are starting to get a little bigger um they're starting to get adopted by some of these fintechs and the regulators are starting to think it reminds me a little bit like this this statement from hester pierce reminds me a little bit and again i don't want to draw an analog nor i want to sound like I'm being a doomsday person.

30:12But if you recall, Gary Gensler, our favorite SEC chairman, basically stopped yield in CeFi in the US. If you remember, this was around 2000 and... I want to say it was like 2021. Okay. Gary Gensler came out and said, no more yield on CeFi for Americans. And those accounts stopped, like BlockFi stopped servicing their interest accounts and a bunch of other companies have to shut it down and settle. And that happened actually months, probably not a whole year before the eventual collapse of these companies that were offering these products. And so in some ways, the regulators had a sense back then of the risk that was being pumped into the market and they were starting to try to address it, but it just unraveled on them before they could put a cap on it.

31:07this one seems to me a little bit like same thing like very similar story kind of deja vu ish deja vu ish which is hey guys these protocols are coming out and guess what it's yield again and it's loans again and now it's not it's done by contracts and none of the contracts are saying none of the contracts take responsibility right like when you're issuing a loan you you have a lender that depending on the on the that lender should be following consumer protections they should be getting uh you know complying with state lending laws if there are any and that and they have a legal agreement you know there's like things you can and cannot do uh in defy you're doing the same thing without the legal agreement without their license without the consumer protections without the disclosures and those things are there for when things go bad yeah nobody reads the agreement and if your loan goes well and you repay your loan that agreement was irrelevant.

32:07You read it, you got comfortable, you took your loan, you paid it back, no problem. When you start really digging into the agreement and reading each clause is when something goes bad. And so that's the thing. It just shocks me that people are willing to put their Bitcoin up with companies. People aren't pricing the risk appropriately, I don't think. And with Bitcoin, obviously, this is money that does not require trust and there's no counterparty risk. But when you decide to use a product where you're doing a Bitcoin-backed loan, trust is everything. So the only companies that I would ever look at doing that with are ones where I know how their operations are running.

32:41I know the people in charge. I know what's going on. I'm amazed that people aren't pricing that risk and would rather have a loan at 6 % with this sketchy thing, rather than 10 % with someone else. I take my Bitcoin very seriously. I don't want to lose my Bitcoin. Yes, but this is where you start getting into the, well, it's a protocol, but it's being offered through a brand that makes me warm and fuzzy. and most people aren't reading the terms and conditions. And I think that's where the regulators are saying, that's where I think this is coming from, this Hester Pierce statement, is that you're making this stuff look just like everything else inside that app and it isn't.

33:23It's actually quite different. And so I think that's where, we'll see how it plays out in the next few months. So we're not out of the Wild West when it comes to Bitcoin back loans? Well, again, I don't want to, there are good players. There's increasingly good players. And I do think that the industry is in a better place today than it was four years ago. That said, especially during bear markets and with the fierce competition, people start accepting more risk or taking more risk to survive, to grow, to get that incremental, to hit that number for the quarter, to run out of runway. and so you may start subsidizing the product to try to get some more originations you may start trying to do hey well you know let's offer these no liquidation loans and like partially buy the protection or maybe not buy the protection or let's do some modeling and see if we do need the protection and like that's when you start getting into trouble because you're not um you either you're not being honest or you're taking a lot more risk without explaining it or it's just closing it and i think that's where risk starts creeping into the system um one way or another right and so again i think you you if it's like i think at the core it's like if it looks too good to be true if it's priced too good to be true it likely is you gotta start asking some questions yeah because listen man we've been doing this for eight years okay and this is all we do i spend my living breathing days how to make loans better and how can we innovate and we have a massive team that does this every day and only this and so and and there are listen we've looked at a lot of these things right we've looked at a lot of these options and we've always come from the view that if and when we do something we want to explain to you exactly what it is that's happening and how we're addressing that risk.

35:21What I never want to do is tell you, look at this, this is so much better. You have these much better terms and don't worry about how I get it. I'm just that good.

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38:02That's bitkey.world and use the code WBD. So I'd want to ask you another question about reducing volatility in these loans. But I think we should set this up a little bit because you've just announced that you're doing Tether Gold now as well. Yes. Why don't you explain what that is? And then I have a few questions on it. Definitely. So Tether Gold, the asset itself, is basically, think of it as almost a stable coin for gold. Are Tether now the largest private holder of gold? I have to double check, but I believe they're up there. Yes. In terms of private, privately, I believe they are. in terms of like sovereigns i think they're actually up there like north of some bunch of sovereigns but if you look at tether's model for their stable coins is you give them a dollar they store that dollar into a treasury and they mint a token a dollar token and you go and use that token and you can redeem that token eventually one day for for the dollar in gold it works pretty similar you bring a bar of gold to their vaults in switzerland you give them the vault you put it in the in the safe or the cage and you get a gold token and you move it around and so one token one bar one token one dollar it's the very it's a very similar model to the stable coin but now applied to a sovereign precious metal right and so what that does is if you um you know most people that own gold today in size they hold it at a vault somewhere um or at multiple vaults and like with everything physical you try to send that gold somewhere you try to move that gold the buyers have the buyer pool has to be in that vicinity if you want to transfer that goal or move it to different countries a nightmare and so gold has a lot of physical constraints uh just by the nature of it and holding it already has built-in counterparty risk because beyond the few things you own you don't want to store vaults or gold bars in your house yeah and so you already have some of that and um the asset itself i think it's a fascinating proposition um because it's i think it can do to the gold what the stable coin did to the dollar you put it on a digital rail and all of a sudden the physical constraints go away you can get financing with anybody you can send it at any time on a blockchain and we think that and again a lot of the added ton of counterparty risk but Yeah, but again, it's not dissimilar to the counterparty risk that a stablecoin has.

40:26No, yeah, 100%. And a stablecoin is wildly popular. I meant compared to gold, though. Well, compared to physical gold and compared to Bitcoin. No question. There is no question. However, it's been proven that when you create a better format of the same product, a US dollar versus a stablecoin, and you put it on digital rails, all of a sudden, a lot more people can use it. a lot more people can access it and you can start doing things with it that were previously you didn't even consider yeah right so i think the same thing is going to happen to gold and again it might not be for everybody some people might prefer still to hold their gold physically and i understand that and that's totally fine um but to many they will like this idea that hey i can get my gold exposure through this token that allows me to you know in the future get a loan from latin i can sell it really quick i can move it really quick i can settle with a counterparty really quickly uh it's much more versatile than my physical gold and i think that's going to resonate with a lot of people um a lot of bitcoiners believe it or not especially some of our clients um a few in particular took loans uh in the middle of last year with bitcoin to get into the precious metals rally and they did fantastic uh many of them started trying they said mal i want to bring i did really well with my leaded loan because i got into precious metals i want to i love leaden i can i can never do what i do at leaden with my gold with my physical gold and i want to do the same at the time we obviously didn't have a solution for it but midway through last year that was actually just happened to be the time where we were getting together or starting to talk more with the tether team about them they eventually made an investment into leaden in november last year and through getting to know them and through visiting and learning about xct we said, well, this could be potentially an answer for some of the things our clients were looking for.

42:16So there's, like, I've got no problem with gold. I think it's a cool product. I think, I totally understand why you're doing it, but I'm sure there's people that have been like, why are you adding this shit coin? You know what? Surprisingly, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. We haven't had. It feels like gold is the only thing you could have got away with. You know, it's funny because, and again, you know, when you think about, we already support stable coins okay so you could you could argue that hey we already support tether we already support usdc like we support i'd rather have a stable coin backed by gold than the dollar well and you know tether actually i think the tether had one but they just discontinued it um and while that's a really good idea and i think that in a previous life or maybe five years ago i would have taken off what's happening right now with genius act is it's driving most of the stable coins at scale to hold the paper like the treasuries yeah because of the incentive the government has right i think the free market will be the free market and you're going to get some of that too um but um in my opinion you know if you can get comfortable with the way a stable coin works and if you look at who is the issuer okay the issuer is the group that we are already trusting with hundred plus billion dollars worth of dollars in treasuries yeah right you know if anybody is going to do this and then if anybody has an incentive to do this right and the know-how to do this right it's them right and so we can we got comfortable with the asset itself um we listed it right now you can buy it and sell it um we you can't borrow against it just yet but you will be able to soon and the interesting part about it is like you still get again if you go beyond the custodial risk and the fact that you know there is third-party risk because it's sitting at a vault somewhere in the same way your u.s treasuries are going to be sitting at you know some of their um accounts um if you get past that it's a fantastic asset in that it gives you a lot the same hard money benefits that bitcoin gives you it has a lot less volatility um and because of those because of the lesser volatility um i anticipate and again i can't confirm these yet but i anticipate that the terms on goldback loans like in terms of ltvs and rates um you're gonna get actually an incremental benefit um on those terms relative to bitcoin because you have again a lot less volatility, much bigger market, and a much bigger bidder base, right?

44:44So I think it's going to be, the more we can, once these loans, once we roll out the loans, I think people are going to start seeing, okay, this could be an interesting compliment. It will never replace Bitcoin. I want to be clear about that. The thing that I think is really potentially interesting, I know you've said that you're going to do gold-backed loans. I like the idea of a sort of cross collateral backed loan? Because that would be a way of reducing volatility. Like say you did 80 % Bitcoin, 20 % gold. Don't get ahead of us, Danny. But no, we're thinking about a lot of these potential things too.

45:17Like how do we keep, how do we help our clients reduce the risk of a liquidation? Because no, we don't want it. You don't want it. Keep giving you some of that hard money attribute, the anti-debasement of the collateral. Can you start thinking about, you know. Like hybrid. hybrid ways of potentially doing these things like um so again you have to at letter we like to say you you crawl you walk and you run right you can't just start running out of the gate because you know you want to be making sure that every step you're taking especially in this in the business of lending like super careful you have to be incredibly deliberate you have to be incredibly thoughtful you have to dot your i's cross your t's and then you uh you can announce it.

46:02Or you can, you know, bring it to market. I can get ahead of myself though. Like I like the idea of almost like a slider where you can completely set your own, um, like amount of Bitcoin or amount of gold in the loan, like adjust it to your volatility preference. Like, I think that's really interesting. I'll, I'll, I'll set up the meeting with our product team. It's very cool. Um, we should get onto the other thing that you, we, we've had so many announcements since we last spoke. Tell me about the bond. Ah, the bond, man. Um, the bond was super interesting because to me it's the biggest news in the financing or credit market, even in the Bitcoin credit markets.

46:39I know everybody's focused on debts and treasuries, but the biggest news in Bitcoin credit, I'm obviously biased because it's our baby, but Ledin did the first Bitcoin-backed loan securitization ever this year with S &P. S &P was the ratings agency that rated the vehicle. But what that does is basically we took a chunk of our loan book,$200 million worth of loans, made up of 5 ,000 plus individual loans from people in 30 plus countries. And we packaged them into a$200 million offering and we got that rated by S &P. And we reached investment grade on that bond. What is investment grade? Great question.

47:25So investment grade is a qualification or a rating that is issued by two approved ratings agencies, which is the two of them are S &Ps and Moody's. So we chose S &P and we work with S &P. What is an investment grade rating? An investment grade rating, you can think of it or a rating on a bond. You can think of it as the report card on the bond. Right. so the the the ratings agency will go will sit down with the issuer and they will work with the issuer for you know as long as it's needed with us it was like over a year over a year long process it's very grueling because we were the first people to ever do this and and you need a lot of things to even be considered for this so we can we can talk about that in a second but a rating is basically a grade on your report card and so the better the grade the less risk your bond has right And what the agency does is they take your loan book and they basically look at all of your operations, your processes, your legal agreements.

48:27And then they start playing out these scenarios. Like what happens if Bitcoin crashes to this? What happens if what happens if what happens if this? And they run God knows how many models. And you can read the report. I can send you the link if you want to put it in the show notes. The report S &P did on us. And so based on all those models, they get what they call an expected loss. What is the expected loss if all these things happen? and the smaller the loss the better the grade why is investment grade so important investment grade is an a okay like there's different so you have like triple a double a a correct but but the real cutoff is there's like all the ways like triple b minus is where investment grade starts and everything below that is considered junk okay in the finance world in the bond space it's not so much about the actual letter it's about it's a pass fail on investment grade or not investment grade okay right so if you're investment grade you're in the bucket if you're not investment grade you never get to see what's behind the curtain okay why is that important in the abs market the asset-backed securitization market the buyers the the 90 to 95 percent of all bonds issued in the abs market are investment grade why because the buyers of these bonds the biggest buyers the pension funds the insurance companies the reinsurance companies they have a mandate that they can only buy bonds that have been great rated investment grade by either s &p or moody's so when you hit the bar you unlock 90 of the demand when you don't hit the bar you you're stuck selling to like hedge funds and more risk more risk taking people and it's just it's obviously the rate is higher and so you don't really we didn't want to go to market with a sub investment grade offering we wanted to we believe we have what it takes and we did uh to reach that we were the first company to ever do this um it is the first time smp has ever rated a bitcoin product and it's the first time that it's given an investment grade rating to a bitcoin product and we are a first time issuer that has received an investment grade rating so that's awesome this is honestly like the other thing i mean i can talk about this thing for hours but the other thing that's super fascinating to me is most abs bonds in the past were securitizations of american loans american mortgages american car leases american credit cards and in the there's like a handful of previous issuances where they've taken 80 % American loans and 20 % Canadian loans.

51:05And the second they do that, the risk shoots. And so, and it's based, but they did it because, you know, they wanted to test a few things. But before that, the most countries in the most borrower countries to be in a bond were two. Oh, wow. And you did 30. At Lennon, we did, yeah, it's 30 or 28. I have to double check, but it's basically the most countries. Why? Why? Because of Bitcoin. because the collateral is not bound by a geographical constraint. If I want to exercise my right to repossess a car in the US, it's very different than my right to repossess a car in Canada. It's very different than my right to repossess a car in Mexico.

51:46Bitcoin, our bond was the first time that in the eyes of the bondholder, the countries don't matter. That's cool. That to me is one of the most incredible things about this offering. beyond that like this was this is more related to let it specific right but if you want to get into the nitty-gritty of what it takes to a even be considered by one of these ratings agencies let alone get an investment rate rating um you need to have um well first of all you need to have a team that's willing to open the kimono and share things with the regulator or the ratings agency and you have to have your eyes dotted your t's crossed everything's going to go through an x-ray And so that willingness and having all the documentation that they're going to need and the ability to answer all their questions, the right data, the right tape.

52:35We have eight years of tape. They need to see at least one full business cycle, including a period of stress, meaning we're the only lender that qualifies for that. And so we believe that we had an opportunity to open up the market. and the way the bond market works is the longer you're in it and the more issuances you have the farther ahead you get and there's no real way to catch up other than time and so by starting ahead and being the first ones to ever do it our goal is to drive that market not from 200 which we did a 180 million dollar offering we believe and we estimate that in the in not too long five to ten years there's going to be a trillion dollars worth of bitcoin back loans out there.

53:20We need to know where you're going to get a trillion dollars. There's no balance sheet in the world that can cough up a trillion dollars. So what's the benefit to the company of issuing this bond? Oh, many. So for one, it's, it proves that we can securitize our debt beyond our bilateral partners. Is it basically like a mortgage-backed security? Yes, that's what it is. It's the equivalent of that in Bitcoin, right? If you look at how most Bitcoin-backed lending companies today are funded they are taking say a large loan from an institution from an institutional lender say they're taking you know 50 million dollar loan and they're doing like one million dollar two million dollars five hundred thousand and then they're just redistributing capital right what we have done is we've now taken our loans that we've originated and gone to the public markets and said hey public markets buy our buy our buy a part of our loan book right So that kind of reduces your reliance on the tethers of the world and people like that.

54:18On any bilaterals. Yeah. And the other thing is bond investors are incredibly risk adverse. So by virtue of us having a bond, the bond facility itself is bankruptcy remote from Lettend. So Lettend could get hit by a bus and light up on fire and every loan in that facility and every bond, every note holder is going to get paid to maturity because there is a a backup servicer there's like all of the pieces are in place so that the loan arriving to maturity does not depend on that and if anything happens to let it that's a benefit not just to the to the person buying the bond but for the borrower yeah right and the more of our book we can put in that the the other thing is if your loan is when you when your loan gets vended into the letter bond you get an email saying hey danny your loan's been vended into the letter bond when you get that email, you know your Bitcoins have Fidelity because Fidelity is the custodian for all of the Bitcoin collateralizing all the loans in the bond.

55:19So you will know with certainty where your collateral is. You can see the facility. It's public. I can give you the ticker. Anybody can see it. And so it's much more transparent. It's much more resilient. It's much more scalable. So is this just a win-win for customers, the business, everyone? Yes. And I've been trying to make this case in every opportunity that I've gotten. But I know it's a bit of a dense topic. It's a complex thing. I've had people come to me being like, hey, I saw you guys got into the institutional loans. Who did you give the bond to? And I'm like, no, no, it doesn't work that way.

55:59And so a lot of people don't necessarily have the... The TradFi people, like the guys that work in banking and the people that understand this, people were reaching out to us and saying, wow, I can't believe you guys did this. Like, how is this not bigger news? Because also it came out in the middle of the bear market in the middle of the February. So people were just looking at different things. But this is a massive news. in in the this is the first true in my opinion bitcoin credit instrument not preferred equity there is a maturity and there is a coupon and there is bankruptcy remoteness what is the coupon uh 684 on the on the senior tranche 999 on the junior and there's a small piece of lead and equity as well in the bond.

56:53So it's our first time. I expect these rates to get much better over time. But again, so again, the other place that this is a win is it will potentially drop people's rates over time. Over time. But more importantly, now you can see as a borrower, where like you can see that we have a 200 million dollar facility. You can see how much that facility costs. If we're showing you that facility costs 6.84 and 9.99 and we're not offering you a loan at five you should be asking questions yeah yeah you know what i'm trying to say like we are all about being transparent like we want to show you and tell you to the best we can where the money comes from what's the cost of the money where's the custody we believe our borrowers are smart enough to piece it together yeah right and if you're a person that doesn't really care about the math not mathing you're not a letting client necessarily right like if you're the kind of guy that's going to be cool with them borrowing a 10 and you somehow getting a loan at five good luck you know what i mean like i i totally it's um and so you did you did 200 million on the first one i imagine you want to do a few more of these yes are you close or can you not talk about where you at with it we so we we i don't want to get into the sort of timing or promising uh but it is something that um like the market was incredibly excited about it it was two times over subscribed on the senior three times in the junior so the market oh wow the market wants more um and we're growing um so it's definitely something we're looking at but i don't we don't really have like a timeline for the next one you can't be promising um it's you're gonna see another one i just don't you know i don't want to say oh tomorrow i don't like over promising and under delivering uh but you're gonna see more of these for sure very cool led to the good spot man yeah man i i'm very happy I mean, this is the most, I'm trying to find the right word, but it's like, I feel like this is the most zen I've ever been in a bear market.

58:51Like it is a bear market. Don't get me wrong. Like, you know, prices are down. But in terms of like how well everything is running on our side, like the solid foundation that we're on, like the bond, you know, the support of our investors, the support of like our clients. you know the book being as resilient as it has been during this downturn that's another thing um in previous bear markets a lot more people would have historically gotten impacted with the liquidation yeah right um because the product also hasn't you know yes has been doing it for years but like people not everybody on the book has been through a cycle of course yeah but now the more people like this isn't the first road people are learning about position size correct And so that makes me very, that encourages me quite a bit as we look at potentially the next bull run, because all those guys that kept those loans open are about to see their wealth hopefully double in the next one to two years.

59:51And listen, that may or may not lead to more loans. Historically, what we see is people say, oh my God, this loan works financially for me. You know, now you have more wealth and you think to yourself, well, should I sell some equity to pay back the loan? probably just keep it like i'll just keep it rolling or i'll invest in somewhere else but as the wealth effect kicks in um in on the good side of the loan experience where the collateral does rise um we want to be there we want to be there returning your excess bitcoin we want to be there helping you to get that incremental loan to fix your kitchen if you want like that's that's what we're here for it's awesome congratulations thank you that's very cool and i do want to talk to you about something totally different so last time we did a show in DC, wasn't it?

1:00:34We did a lot on Venezuela. You told your story. If anyone wants to listen to that, you should go back and listen to that show. We won't do the whole story of your family escaping the Maduro regime. I remember we were talking about Maduro and you wanting basically America to come in and help. And America came in and helped. Dreams come true, man. So tell me everything that's happened since that. When did you find out that it happened? I imagine the next morning. No, during the night. So it was, I can't remember why, but it was, it happened at like 3 a.m. on a Saturday. And I woke up, I can't remember why, because I was sleeping.

1:01:09And that night, that night I woke up, I think my phone was just going. Yeah, I bet, going crazy. And I usually keep it on silent and never wake up at night. But I woke up and I woke up and I didn't hear my phone. So I'm like, oh, maybe I just, I went to the bathroom. I came out, my phone's buzzing again. I pick up my phone and my group chat with my high school friends from Venezuela is blowing up with all these images of these apache helicopters and at this point there's no word about maduro there's just like a bunch of helicopters and bombs and explosions and caracas and everybody's like it was like what's happening what's happening um so the the chat continued to be lit on fire i was it was 4 a.m for me i was like out of it my kids were like daddy come back and so i basically you know went to help my daughter fall back asleep and i just kind of forgot until 8 a.m i woke up 8 a.m i looked at it again maduro's gone and they've extracted at maduro and it was like a little bit of my initial reaction was like a little bit of a of a shock right like i just i was in disbelief uh that they did it um that they did it so surgically like that not a single casualty on the u.s side it was just like i played out like a movie yeah like if you look at the footage like that thing looks like a movie and then came the sort of realization that maduro's gone so now what of course the sad part is venezuelans couldn't go out and celebrate in venezuela because they would have gotten shot by the regime that all you all they took was maduro yeah everyone else his henchmen are still there they're still trying to figure out what to do as well well and slowly so so they took out maduro okay so then the question became okay what next right well america wants to take the venezuelan oil no shit like you think we don't know right like of course they want to take the oil and then so did the chinese and so did the russians and so did the iranians then we never saw the oil nobody's complaining about not seeing the oil money anymore because we never saw it right and so yeah okay america at least they're gonna put hopefully some new infrastructure to extract it because these last guys were so incompetent they didn't even fix it just stopped yanking it out of the ground okay so we're now down to like 800 000 barrels a day america's doubled it in like three months wow we're not seeing any of it i mean at least to my knowledge the venezolanan people haven't really been on the receiving end of that money but at least it's producing twice the output that it used to and there is some investment happening now the the challenge uh previous before the earthquake okay because i think we can get into the earthquake in a second but what happened after maduro got taken away was the people that remained delcy and all of maduro's you know buddies and crew they understood very quickly that their only way to not have the same outcome as maduro was to play ball with america like if they play ball with america and they give america what they want maybe america won't care about a transition in government right and that was their play and i would argue that up until the earthquake that plan was working for them so the regime wouldn't actually change that much no it just said whatever it just did whatever america wanted it's like oh you want a safe zone for your executives to go into the oil extraction sites no problem oh you want us to um you know change the uh um um uh resource extraction law so that you guys can build faster no problem we'll we'll get that done for you so before the earthquake um had life changed much for the people in venezuela the expectation like the the illusion is there like day to day doesn't really change right like then and there like it's not like new goods come into the shelves and prices go down like two things happened um number one inflation uh stopped that the basement stopped falling off a cliff like it just reached a room temperature 100 year over year which is normal for us uh from the 500 to 300 it tamed so the the rate of the basement of the bolivar dropped significantly after the americans took maduro and the other thing is assets started getting repriced like there wasn't a lot of people buying and selling but you know i'll give you the example like i had some people some family members that were like looking to sell a warehouse like a some warehouse out in the middle of the country and before the maduro extraction they were saying you know i'll take anything you know i'll take 20 dollars like an arepa you know i just i'll let it go right and now when maduro got taken away they're like take off the listing take off the listing it's like well no but I have somebody interested $100 ,000 people went from like this is worthless to everyone in America is now going to want to buy my whatever asset I have it's essentially they just got hope back correct and that to me was the most important thing is to get back the hope that things can get better in the future yeah that was starting to create some frustration because yeah all this hope but you eventually you want things to turn into real progress.

1:06:19And that wasn't happening. Maria Corina Machal hasn't returned. She won the Nobel Peace Prize. And after that, she's kind of fallen out of favor or not fallen out of favor, but just like not in the media. Has she not returned because it's still too dangerous for her to return? I don't know the answer to that, but I think in my opinion is that it has to do with whatever the US wants. right now the US is calling the shots anything else is pretend so I think that when the US wants or when they believe and let's get into the earthquake because the earthquake changed the political landscape in Venezuela La Guaira, the area of Venezuela that was most impacted by this was Caracas's biggest suburb the capital in Venezuela the few times that a government has been overthrown it happens in Caracas because Caracas is where the presidential palace is Miraflores so historically previous revolutions you had the people take the streets they come down from the favelas or the hoods and they go to Miraflores and they pitchfork this guy out basically and they stay there until the military coos them and that's when Caracas lights on fire politicians listen and politicians get scared and so La Guaira in Caracas as a whole was a stronghold for Chavismo there was a lot of support because it was a very poor area the area that fell the white i was where their most fervent followers a lot of them lived they obviously their lives were nuked like destroyed and the regime did absolutely nothing it's like a month in the regime's done nothing and the people in la guaira got fed up of and not only nothing they when they did go down they started obstructing the locals from helping dig their own families out of the buildings and so people were losing it to with the maduro regime or with the delci regime so la guaira is fed up like venezuela at this point is fed up with delci it's fed up with chavismo it's fed up with any remnant of the Maduro legacy or Chavez legacy that's there.

1:08:40It needs change. Before the earthquake, there wasn't that much pressure or hostility. The earthquake racked that up by 10x. And last week, Jorge Rodriguez, which is Delcy Rodriguez's brother, who's the president of the National Assembly, came out you know unprompted to say we need to change the we need to basically do radical change we need to redo all of our electorate council we need to get new directors we need to get new machinery we need to get new processes we need to audit this whole thing and they're starting to lay the pipes for the eventual election and you think it would be an actual free and fair election yes I mean I don't know if those such things exist but like uh i think it would be as close to it as we probably would get in venezuela and my opinion one man's opinion yeah it's so lopsided that you it would take an immense amount of cheating fraud and deceit for us not to return to democracy so as horrendous as that earthquake was it might actually be sort of a turning point i think there's gonna be a before and after because it's it's almost like capitulation you know it's like a full capitulation of the regime itself like that that was their last sort of icing on the cake like you had a chance to help the people you said you would help you would help for 20 years you now had a tangible opportunity to make their lives better and not only did you not do that you made them you actually made it worse by participating yeah and so um that and also there was the the previous regime have built up an image that oh uh trump is a uh american uh uh you know uh whatever imperialists and all this stuff uh bukele oh cheat uh imperialist this and that and just talking crap about everybody that wasn't affiliated with them politically who sent the most rescue people Do you know?

1:10:47No, no idea. The US and El Salvador. And so what people saw in La Guayra was like the people helping them were American, not the Venezuelan regime. The people digging up the people out of the collapsed buildings were Salvadorian, American, Mexican, anywhere but Venezuelan. And so all these guys that you were talking about being the boogeyman were the guys that showed up unprompted and started digging new people out when all these other dudes were sitting around saying. And so culturally, it's been a huge change. It's interesting to hear you so sort of optimistic because I remember speaking to you after I'd done the interview with Leo Lopez.

1:11:32Yes. And I think I was making the point that he sounds really sort of positive and enthusiastic and like there could be change. and you were slightly more skeptical. Because Leo's a politician, he has to be. Correct, but if you remember, and I said this to Peter, look back at the episode I recorded with Peter in 2019 with Ale Machao, myself, and I can't remember the last person. He asked us at the end of the show, how do you think this resolves? And I said, the only way this resolves is through military intervention. I believed that eight years ago. I believed that seven years ago. And that's how it actually eventually played out.

1:12:08and I'm not saying I have a crystal ball. I just know the power dynamics in the country. And so that's how it played out. Now that the head of the snake has been chopped off, to me, I'm now optimistic because there is now a bigger gun that went down and said, you cannot hit your wife. You know what I'm saying? You cannot hit your children. That's not good. We won't allow that. And we didn't have that. There was no... I was so shocked when it happened because, and again, it's one of those things like there's decades where nothing happened and then there's weeks where decades happened. Like when was the last time the U.S.

1:12:45has struck anyone in LATAM? I don't know. but within a few months we now have latam you know iran like again i'm not saying it's all good but it was something that was unlikely and statistically i think the odds were very low if you had asked anybody yeah and now that it happened i'm like this is the piece that was missing so if you do get free and fair elections you get a new government in charge like it's still a massive rebuilding process right it's been destroyed correct um it's been destroyed there's massive culture like there's also like infrastructure is collapsed like the the infrastructure in la huaida is destroyed that la huaida has our biggest airport our biggest port like it's you know it's it's a it's an important part of the country that has to get rebuilt um but that said rebuilding is a lot more exciting than waiting for the end absolutely and so when you think about rebuilding you can start dreaming you can start looking up you can start saying it will get better.

1:13:49Previously, we were just trying to find the bottom. When are we going to hit bottom? And I think we've hit it. The earthquake is the bottom. And from here, hopefully, we can rebuild. From here, we can rebuild. I think no one deserves it more than the people of Venezuela. I've been through a lot. I'm excited. I don't want to get ahead of myself. But I am optimistic. That's awesome. When are you buying the holiday home in Venezuela? i already i mean i have assets that i thought were worth zero uh among them a place in margarita and uh now they're not zero right like now i don't think they're zero now i think i might actually be able to go back one day um and would you go would you go back and live there or do you go back spend some of your time there you know the thing is for me um there's so much still has to change like for example as much as i would love to um i haven't been there in a long time And I want to know, for example, if I was a single guy and I wasn't married with two kids, I would tell you, yeah, Danny, I'll go because it's not on to me anymore.

1:14:51I'll figure it out. But I want to see how are the kids that I would potentially be sending my, how are the schools I would be potentially sending my kids to? Are they good? The power still runs out every so often. You still get these rolling blackouts every so often. And so it's not like every problem is fixed. but I think over time we will get there eventually I would like to you know spend more time there potentially even move back like you know I'm always a dreamer man and like I never you know I dreamt about one day being a part of the Bitcoin industry and and you know being on these shows and going to these conferences like that was a dream to me that I I thought it was a long shot right like where I'm come from like I'm I'm an immigrant I've worked hard my whole life but like nothing's guaranteed and at the beginning i was like in the past i was like i've always been a dreamer and like you know this one now i'm here right now i'm talking to you now we have leden now we do one in three bitcoin back loans globally like i'm now at a point where dreams come true like you can make your dreams come true you can will things into existing and so i'm not stopping myself short to say if i ever get a chance to play a role in rebuilding the country economically or politically I would be open to it I don't know if that's going to happen The future president of Venezuela I let Leo But I'm happy man I want to be part of the team that brings joy back And yeah, it'll be great Awesome, I mean things are going good for you man Yeah man, I'm happy That's awesome, thank you so much for doing this Mal We've got a fun night ahead of us now Yeah, let's go Pubkey Let's go, I want to see HODL More beers, let's do it Thank you Mal Thank you.

From the publisher

“There’s no balance sheet in the world that can cough up a trillion dollars.”

In this episode, Mauricio Di Bartolomeo explains why he believes Bitcoin-backed loans could become a $1 trillion market within the next five to ten years, and why traditional lender balance sheets cannot finance that growth alone.

Mauricio breaks down Ledn’s $188 million Bitcoin-backed securitisation, the significance of its investment-grade senior notes, and how institutional capital could transform Bitcoin lending into a global credit market. He also explains partial liquidations, auto top up, tokenised gold and the potential for hybrid Bitcoin-and-gold collateral.

The conversation also explores the hidden risks behind “no-liquidation” loans, why cheaper borrowing can conceal dangerous counterparty risk, and whether parts of the industry are repeating the mistakes that preceded the last crypto credit collapse.

We also get into the ongoing changes in Venezuela following Maduro’s capture, the devastation caused by the La Guaira earthquakes, and why he believes the country may finally have an opportunity to rebuild.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:

LEDN

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FOLLOW:

Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo: https://x.com/cryptonomista

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