The Most Bullish Thing About Bitcoin | Alex Thorn

25:25Alex Thorn:That's an interesting question. I think, I don't think so. I'll tell you why. One, the frontier labs, right? They are purveyors of models, right? They don't own primarily, maybe they have some, but they're not the purveyors of energy and compute typically, right? Most of them are using data center, neocloud, hyperscaler contracts, and they're creating the models. The open source models are getting substantially better. I mean, all models are getting better, but it feels at least right now like the gap between the frontier and the open source is declining. Well, KimiK3 beat everything pretty much, didn't it?

26:00Alex Thorn:Well, on like a couple benchmarks. Yeah, not necessarily all of them. Okay, but it's close. Yeah, I mean, even like six months ago, I think the conventional wisdom was that the open sources were like a year behind the frontier. And wherever, whether they're behind or beating or even, everyone agrees that's collapsed substantially. Now it could expand again. I don't know if the frontier labs get access to like troves of proprietary data sets that make them able to train better or if they can hoard the better new chips and train the models on the better new chips that the open source purveyors can't.

26:34Alex Thorn:Like, okay, it could expand, but those open source models still need data centers. They just cut out the paying the middleman tokens. So I actually think you could see the frontier labs need to move more into the application space and not rely on selling tokens. That's what they do. They are token merchants, right? And so I think there's, I mean, there's so many angles to these parts, these stories, but I think it's possible that your theory that the, you know, like a public anthropic IPO could take the wind out of sales of like what a Microsoft or, you know, a NeoCloud. The irons of the world.

27:09Alex Thorn:Yeah. Or the galaxies, right? We have our own data centers as well. Big ones. but I think more likely what's going to happen is that those models are disrupted by open source models which by the way are really big and they need them so instead of maybe paying Anthropic bigger companies first but then maybe depending on how easy this gets bigger enterprises start getting their own compute and running the open source models on them but thereby bypassing the spending on Anthropic and OpenAI it's possible I think this is a, but again, there's no one knows. Because there's also the added variable that no one knows about, which is what the US government are going to do.

27:50Like they've clearly been holding back these frontier models. Right. And like, I feel like their hand's getting forced and they're going to have to just unleash them.

27:58Alex Thorn:I agree. I mean, but yes, the questions of alignment and safety and regulation and the geopolitics of it are very substantial. Does safety matter though, if like they're holding back these US companies because of safety concerns, which might be totally valid, but like the Chinese models don't care. Like, do they just be like, okay, how about it? Well, yeah. I mean, that's the AI arms race. I mean, there's a couple. I mean, you could imagine there's great essays, AI 2027. Have you read this? Yeah. Or AI 2040. So like the game theoryed out like so many different possible outcomes. It's really, really fun.

28:32Alex Thorn:I recommend people check that out. And no, you can end up with a massive accord between China and the US to stop the arms race, just like during the Cold War. it's totally possible right to like i mean i mean i don't know how much better do you think it can really get like i mean i i'm doing stuff with like 5.6 and fable that is like just literally mind-bending versus just like four months ago so like yeah i mean i guess it can probably always get better you know it can get cheaper i think this is like really what's likely to happen there will be an ai that's too powerful to be public yeah and and if china is going to give it to their people and we're not going to give it to ours, of course, that disadvantages us.

29:13Alex Thorn:And I bet you would see the US force China to close theirs off too. And so then the evolution would become making it cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and more accessible, right? And we're in that spot now, that's starting to be what happens. Wait, so you think that they might end up capping intelligence, being like, this is as smart as we're going to allow this to get? I think it's almost certainly inevitable at some point. I mean, if the truth is that we simply can't make it smarter, like let's say we hit the wall, that's the only other thing that's going to stop it from growing. Otherwise, wouldn't it just get smarter forever?

29:44Yeah, but what like...

29:46Alex Thorn:That's dangerous. It's absolutely dangerous. Sure. Like, no, it's definitely dangerous. I agree with that. Governments are going to involve themselves. I think it's very obvious. But is that not almost like Bitcoin where it's like, yes, this can be used for bad things, but it can also be used for great things? Yeah, but Bitcoin can't literally destroy the earth. Like it can't create like Terminator robots, right? It can't itself train robots to build a factory to build more robots and then invade your city like in Minority Report or iRobot. But is this like holding a balloon underwater where you hold it down as long as you can?

30:16Alex Thorn:And to be clear, I'm like an optimist about AI. I just think there's no world where everyone's going to get literally extraterrestrial superhuman intelligence that can crack any lock. That's not going to be allowed. And so I think I don't know where that is. I certainly don't want to. I don't think it's here. like it's now, but I think at some point, like I think conceptually, there is absolutely a model too smart to let everyone use. And the question, I think what we need - But the problem is like, so I think you're so right. I think there is probably a model that's too smart to let everyone use, but they'll still use it.

30:52That's my problem with it.

30:53Alex Thorn:Well, this is like one of the theses in this AI 2040 is that like, they literally set up where like all of the US's training is in like Mongolia right next to China and all of China's is in Canada. so we can both easily just bomb it like in a literal like, like, you know, mutual sure destruction. Yeah. I think. But that's like, that seems to me like you're accepting the permanent underclass. You're like, you're giving the government control to use this AI that's way too powerful for the public. Well, it's not clear. I mean, I think one of the, I think they'd probably both ban as well. I mean, it's just like the government didn't also use the nukes like when we had.

31:26Alex Thorn:But they could. Well, they could, but they didn't. And they, well, they did twice. Well, that's true. But that was before, I mean, the treaties is what i'm saying yes um so i don't know yeah it's it's totally possible it's not clear which way also i mean look if you can't stop the distillation then the models can't i mean it looks pretty clear now that you can basically reverse engineer a frontier model into an open source model and so like if it's available anywhere it's basically going to be available everywhere right away so like i it you know and then that you know you what i hope is that if we start capping or segregating or regulating that we do it in a transparent way like what i i wrote a piece last month about this mythos thing where commerce department effectively called anthropic on the phone and said kill it under this authority they never wrote a letter they never published anything in the federal register that was completely an appropriate way to do it in my opinion yeah and it's not the it needs to be done under statute there's got to be a process or whatever if they're going to start doing this then it's got to at least be done through law right it can't be like you get a call at night and says cut off these users from your model like that's crazy But then, again, I totally agree, just to get into the semantics of it.

32:35The hard thing about that is that they almost, the anthropics and the open AIs of the world, almost have to submit their model to the government first, be like, is this okay? I don't like that. I agree.

32:43Alex Thorn:But I'm saying there's a decent probability that ends up happening. But is this not just where China wins then? Well, I mean, if they can catch up. No, I'm not sure. Maybe. I mean, China's giving it away. I think the strategy is so interesting here that they are they're not trying to make their own frontier models or frontier labs for profit at the moment i guess i'm sure they're doing some private you know government type training somewhere but like their strategy is just like flood the zone like at least have everyone use ours it reminds me of like this time i think bill gates was asked once if he was upset that there was all these people pirating windows in china and he was like i'm happy they're pirating ours and not the others i'd rather have them use ours than the others and i was like i think that's kind of what china's saying here like well if we can't control it we may as well have everyone use the one we're using, right?

33:29Alex Thorn:And also simultaneously degrade the US advantage, right? It degrades the US advantage. It hits US markets. And at any point when they've got enough users, they can just make a closed source anyway. They could. They could. Or stop releasing new open source ones, right? I mean, so I don't know where that goes. I hope it doesn't happen soon because I want to keep getting better intelligence. And yeah, I don't want you to be walking around. And by the way, there's way other more dystopian. They can start saying which models each person can use. so you'd be like, well, Danny, you've only been in the United States for two weeks, so you only get access to 4.0.

34:01Alex Thorn:You don't get access to 5.6. What? They could do that type of stuff, which is another reason I like open source, by the way. And I run some open source models at home, just not huge ones, because I don't have a data center. So I don't know. That's going to get really, really exciting. Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin? Of course you do. Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockware, you can. Under section 168K of the US tax code, Bitcoin mining servers qualify for 100 % bonus depreciation. This means every dollar you spend on miners can directly offset your income in a single year.

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36:51Alex Thorn:don't know i don't know um and but also we have so much energy like right we yeah i think this one of the good things and i know there's you know the beginnings of backlash on the populist front both left and the right against data centers 100 um but i also think partly through the bitcoin and Bitcoiners work, right? Like Troy and Daniel, like you talked about and others. There's a bit bigger realization now that like we can't grow and be prosperous with capping our energy use and actually energy abundance is the way. And by the way, things like wind and solar are naturally good, important parts of the grid and have grown a lot as well, right?

37:33Alex Thorn:But like you kind of need everything and you really need to run a growing and balanced energy grid. That's what it is, electrical grid. I think people flip-flop too hard on either side of that, where it's like either wind and solar is the only way you can do things, or it's evil to do it that way. The truth is everything. Yeah, you need a bit of everything. They all have different platform use cases. I wish we had more nuclear energy in this country. I hope we get some deregulation, because apparently it takes a decade to even get a license, and no one's gotten one in 40 years or something. but um nuclear is green and huge and and baseload yeah and right and and it just goes forever and also um i don't know i wasn't alive then but i'm presuming the the use of nuclear weapons but then also like the partial uh thing at three mile island and then fukushima and ukraine and chernobyl like but if you really look at those you know caused all this negativity about them but if you actually look at those, like none of the, well, I mean, the nuclear weapons are actually totally unrelated.

38:37Alex Thorn:Although I get they both have the word nuclear in them. But Three Mile Island didn't melt down. Fukushima was, well, I guess the lesson is don't build it right next to where a tidal wave could come. And I think only one person died. Right. The most amazing show I think we ever did on what Bitcoin did when we were still doing it with Pete was a guy called Anthony Jarrod. I don't know if you ever listened to that episode. I don't think so. We recorded it in Nashville. He was absolutely awesome. He used to work on nuclear submarines, like looking after the nuclear reactors. And he, we basically did an entire show on like why nuclear is the safest form of energy.

39:10And this all that like anyone listening after the show, don't turn off now after the show, go and listen to that. Cause he lays out all the stats and it is, it is this, I think the only safer form of energy was wind, like by a very small amount, like nuclear is incredibly safe, incredibly powerful base load energy. Like we need, we need all the nuclear wind is intermittent. And like also the, have you seen the pictures, excuse me, of the like graveyards of dead blades?

39:35Alex Thorn:Like it creates a lot of like e-waste, if we call it that or whatever you want to call it. And then I was going to just say like, you know, Fukushima was hit by a tidal wave. It wasn't actually the cause of the reactor. And Chernobyl is just obviously Soviet mismanagement. So there's actually no example of a nuclear plant just like being dangerous, right? Like, so I hope we have more of that too soon, you know? I think it's good. They're building a new one in the UK. It's meant to open next year. Like we need more. That's good. More. I know. Well, New York closed one and now they're like, you know, Mayor Mamdani's like, please keep it at 78.

40:06Like, yeah, that's not abundance. Like that's. Yeah. You shouldn't be living in the biggest city in the world. Like the world's greatest city.

40:14Alex Thorn:You should have the accessibility to electricity. Have it as cold as you want. That's what I think. That's what I think. Cheers to that. Can we go way back? Because you said something before that I've been meaning to come back to. We talked about Bitcoin cycles. um you said like last cycle kind of disappointing i'm like 2021 everyone was talking about 300k bitcoin yeah we got 60k bitcoin right this time everyone's talking about million dollar bitcoin or at least like 300k but like samson was talking about a million dollar bitcoin but like but i think even if you sort of polled most bitcoiners 126 was not going to be the top no that was a that was lower but the interesting thing was in 2017 i was much newer to bitcoin so i i could have some of my history wrong here.

40:5420K, I think, surprised everyone. Why, like, obviously diminishing returns, but why? Like, do you think we'll ever get those increases that people aren't necessarily expecting?

41:04Alex Thorn:There's like, some people say that there could be like an S where it's like, yeah, it levels off here and then it goes like that again one day. The euphoria when it got to 20K, I remember being absolutely insane. Well, it 10-bagged in like, it went from 2K to 20K in about four or five months or like six months. So that was one thing. in fact actually if i recall on labor day weekend in 2021 it crashed below 2k i think if it might be below 3k wait 2020 sorry sorry 2017 yeah okay 2017 and yes thank you um so labor day 2021 i think it crashed like over i remember i was on a ferry somewhere and we're like oh my god it's tanking right and then just like december 17th i think is the top at 20 000 it's just that like it was so classically parabolic.

41:50Alex Thorn:And it had been 300 just a year prior, 300 to 600 in 2016. And also, it was the first time that it truly ran to a level that made it a genuine, relevant asset globally. I always think of 2017 as that was the era where Bitcoin became a household name. Everyone didn't understand Bitcoin, but everyone had heard of Bitcoin. That's why I don't like when people use the Google trends for Bitcoin, looking up the term Bitcoin. Like, who is in 2026? I'm looking at you, camera. Who in 2026 is Googling the word Bitcoin? Just like Google Bitcoin, right? Like, everybody already knows what it is. You're more likely to type in Bitcoin in your brokerage account and see what the price is or on a trading app or type in Michael Saylor.

42:36Alex Thorn:There's still other stuff to learn about, right? But I don't know who. So, no, I agree. I think, look, I think the diminishing returns, I think it's a bigger. there's a lot of debate about this i know like jeff park totally disagrees with this idea that like the bigger the asset the more it takes to um you know move it but it's all marginal isn't it yeah i think it's just all marginal i think like um look you just had a lot of look he got we got the support from the trump administration and the candidate trump that also means like half the people didn't like it right like yeah it hasn't i did see a video of um stephen miller talking about debanking like certain types of, I don't know if I didn't, I don't want to mischaracterize illegal aliens or whatever.

43:20Alex Thorn:And I was like, you know, you could, I think Bitcoin is definitely a political tech and you could see the other side one day decide they need the censorship resistant store of value features, you know, and maybe the resumption of higher growth rates in price is correlated to when both sides say they need it. So there's definitely been like a stratification of the ownership, I think. I mean, I had people tell me that older investors, they didn't want to buy it till they heard Trump say he liked it. That's what made them look at it. I mean, so it's like, and you can imagine it was the reverse for other people, right?

43:56Alex Thorn:So I think, you know, when people truly need it, it still really has, we know people all over the world who need it, truly need it, right? But, you know, in America, I have pretty good access to financial services and assets that can be used for store value or hedging or risk, right? But it may not always be true. And I think you'll see more people decide they actually need and want it. Yeah, I think the idea of financial privacy is definitely not just a left-wing idea, but it feels like a pretty left-wing idea. Yeah. These are the people that should care about it. And I do worry that the Trump administration have put off that whole part of the...

44:35Alex Thorn:Yeah, but it's all cyclical. It's all ebbs and flows, right? None of this is Bitcoin's fault, right? Like Bitcoin's just chugging along. Bitcoin's just Bitcoin. It's a cryptographic signature machine, decentralized with hashing, right? And like, and that's just, it does a thing. Yeah. It's all just narratives that we put on it. And those narratives have evolved and pivoted so many times, not by design, like just in culture and like by markets. And so like, I think you'll get, I think you'll, I think there probably will be a left-wing Bitcoin movement one day for all we know. It's useful. I mean, people have definitely tried.

45:10Yeah.

45:10Alex Thorn:Progressive Bitcoin. Yeah, Trey. What's Trey's second name? I've forgotten. I don't know. But there's Trey, there's Jason Meyer. These people have been pushing it. One of the problems I've always had with that idea is that stop putting either side on it. Yeah, I mean, I absolutely agree. I haven't thought that the Trump administration or or Republicans, frankly, have genuinely made the case that Bitcoin is a conservative's asset. They've mostly made the case that it's a good asset and American dominance is good. And we do a lot of Bitcoin in America. So that's why we like it. And I think that's true.

45:52Alex Thorn:That's not really that political to me. I think it's more just the fact that they like it that has turned off some of the left. So same question with Saylor, with Trump. Do you think Bitcoin would be higher or lower without Trump ever having endorsed it? Oh my, that is a tough one. I think it would probably be lower. Do you think? I don't know if it'd be lower at this exact moment, but I don't think it, yeah, I do. It's tough. That's also tough. This is like real fencing for me, but like with both cases, I almost think just the same. Yeah, you ask the question and then say unchanged. I mean, yeah, it's tough to know.

46:27Alex Thorn:I mean, look, last year there was definitely some competition for interest in Bitcoin from like altcoins. And of course, the president's been involved in those. And I think, I don't know. I don't know. I genuinely don't know. But I have to say, like, you saw the rally. I mean, I would say, no, it wouldn't be higher without, I mean, look at the rally that took us from 60 to 100 directly in response to him doing that. I mean, counterfactuals are impossible to know, but they are interesting. And this is like why I both respect the idea of like the digital gold narrative. Also, I don't like it. I think it's too simplistic.

47:03But if you're trying to explain Bitcoin to maybe an older generation who are less like technically inclined, like it is a really easy way of explaining it.

47:10Alex Thorn:I think I just like it as money that I can control myself. That is, it is substantially more private than say the Z cashers will admit, right? If you use it properly, it's very private. And also, and it can't be taken away. And it's like, what am I going to? I mean, that's why like one way to think about it. And I agree it's too simplistic. It is also a lot of other things and can be used a lot of other ways. But like if you're going to, if you have assets that you like to possess yourself, you should have Bitcoin. Yeah. Because like it is money that they can't take from you. It is money that you can send anywhere in the world at any time.

47:47Alex Thorn:Now, can you do that with ETH? Technically, yes, of course. But it doesn't have the same other monetary properties that Bitcoin has that you may want. Can you do that with stable coins? No, you can't. Stablecoins are great for like paying vendors or sending money across the border. You get debased at exactly the same rate. Well, and first of all, you get debased at the same rate. So if you're trying to diversify away from like a dollar, then those offer you nothing. But also they're freezable, right? It is not immutable the way Bitcoin is. That's okay. I don't pay with the hardest money, immutable money every time.

48:19Alex Thorn:We didn't buy this beer with Bitcoin today. I could here. Shout out, Pokey. Right? But other things I absolutely might. Certainly storing value over time for a long time is one where I don't want. I want to know that it's locked away and there's nothing anyone can do to get it. This is one reason why we work on quantum a little bit as well. We just announced recently the Galaxy Quantum Readiness Initiative, where we're pledging up to$5 million in grants to open source developers who work on post-quantum cryptography, review code, write bips, whatever, all that stuff. And I think by the time this comes out, it'll be public as well that a consortium has formed, the Bitcoin Security Consortium, with Anchorage, ARK, BlackRock, Coinbase, Galaxy, Strategy, Blockstream, and Block, I believe, all of us pledging money to help fund development of Bitcoin preparedness.

49:19That's awesome.

49:21Alex Thorn:it's because though like if that were to emerge it could threaten my ability to store my bitcoin right and so like we don't want to control bitcoin development at all i mean i'm doing we're doing classic i think we're working with brink to help advise us on how to do grants properly right and stuff like that so like we are not trying to control bitcoin at all we're trying to make sure it's funded yeah we want people i mean the other altcoin ecosystems are funding this they have free minds and i see from icos and whatever and foundations that are all funding this and the president just signed two executive orders pulling forward like it's even if it's a low you know i did this i hosted that debate at the in vegas um it was like you know um like james o 'beirne's a big skeptic and i love james i like james he's very smart and it's great guy and it's totally fine but i actually think we reached a decent agreement that well like even you know what even if it's BS, you know, there's no quantum computer that's ever publicly been shown to factor a number, I think, bigger than 21.

50:21Yeah.

50:22Alex Thorn:Which is ironic. Interesting. Do you know when that was? When? 2012. Yeah. So it's been a long time. Well, they could be being built in secret. And I think there was the Google paper from, I think, literally like March 31st or like March, April of this year. Right. They actually provided a ZK proof that they had proven the math they did. that was a ZK proof that they for like an algorithm not necessarily they could actually do it not hardware there is no computer that can do it today but they've proven that the math circuitry is actually a lot the computer effectively can be a lot smaller than previously thought and that keeps happening on the math and software side and I think that panel though even with the Bitcoin the very public skeptics we did all kind of agree that like listen classical cryptography that works for decades can eventually be broken Totally.

51:12Alex Thorn:Like funding and building a lot of AI. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. With AI. So like, but funding and, and, and testing and battle testing new, like secure cryptography is a good thing. And we've added new cryptography before to Bitcoin, like the schnor, right? And so like, that's that, you know, we're not trying to force anything. I think that one of the things people are afraid of when people talk about quantum is that like, Oh, we're going to like rush and like squeeze something in. And like, then there's going to be a bug. We're all worried about that. the groups that I just told you, they all love Bitcoin.

51:46Alex Thorn:They all own tons of Bitcoin. We don't want it to fail. Like someone should be, and this is what Satoshi said. He wrote about how like when like development needs funding, he hopes that the business is built around it, that profit from it will fund it, right? Like that's this. And here we are. I mean, if all we get from this is like more advanced cryptography, nothing ever happens. That's great. And Galaxy and Coinbase foot the bill. Awesome. Exactly. That's what I'm saying. And like, honestly, it's what I absolutely think. And I think, so that one's, another thing is this Noah Doe case in New York.

52:18Oh, dude, we need to talk about this. So I heard about this in Oslo. I was talking to Thomas and he told me a little bit about it, but it was a very little bit. I don't know very much at all. So you should lay this out from the ground up. So last year, there were, last summer, basically all these addresses,

52:36Alex Thorn:I think about 39 ,000 Bitcoin addresses were sent a message, a dust, like in an opportune, basically, in an opportune, saying like, this address is abandoned, and if you don't prove that it's not abandoned in a certain amount of time, then we're going to deem that we have found them or I think take constructive possession of them. We wrote a big report about that. And then in the report, we speculated that it was possible, one possible reason these might be being sent is that whoever is behind the dusting might want to use this to lay the foundation for a legal case to try to claim legal title, legal ownership, not private key ownership, legal ownership over these addresses under abandoned property laws.

53:24Alex Thorn:That is what ended up happening. And this anonymous plaintiff, that's why we call him Noah Doe. That's what he's called in the, they're called in the court documents. And we don't know who it is. And we're certainly not trying to find out, right? That's the court's business. In New York State, filed this case against the addresses. And they're arguing that, you know, without going into like every little part of the argument, but I have a whole report explains everything that they're arguing. And I disagree with a lot of their facts and analysis in that report. They're basically saying, we found these coins.

54:00Alex Thorn:like we should be given legal title over them. And now that's not a way that they can come in and get my keys. Everyone's like, oh my God, but they can't do the keys. That doesn't matter. I'm like, obviously they can't get the keys. No court can order an unnamed anonymous person to give up their keys. It's not gonna, I mean, they can try, but it won't do anything. We all know that. But they, let's say that like anyone, regardless of whether there's no ado or whatever, is under this theory is granted ownership legally over some dormant coins. And then let's say those are my coins. And I go and send them to an exchange.

54:34Alex Thorn:They instantly like serve the exchange with the legal order. Right. It's cool. And now it's all mumbo jumbo. And like, I have to think depending on the quality of their order that if they're my coins, I'm going to have to have lawyers. You know, if I send them to Coinbase, Coinbase would probably have to like get a bunch of lawyers and stuff. It's like it's lawfare. Right. And it and it could it could be substantial. And by the way, substantively, all of the coins that are hypothesized to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto are in that case. So they're trying to get legal title over Satoshi's coins as well.

55:07Alex Thorn:So like this case, like now it's a it is a very clever case. For one, they don't know who any of the holders are. So they're all named as John Doe one through like thirty nine thousand. And so who's going to defend it? And they did dust the addresses again with like a notice of service. But like, I don't know if you've used OpReturn ever, like, or seen it. Have you ever seen it in a wallet? I don't think I've ever used it. Well, you probably haven't because the default for Bitcoin wallets is to just suppress dust and not even show you dust UTXOs that have OpReturns. Because it's spam. It happens all the time.

55:42I get it sometimes in my cold storage.

55:44Alex Thorn:It'll be like, like, trade on the, use this mining pool. It's literally people advertise in OpReturn all the time. right? Yeah, exactly. No, let's not do that. Come on, man. I know. I know it's what everyone, it's like all my Bitcoin feed is still BIP 110. We're not doing it. We're not going there. The super interesting thing there is, so for one, obviously they've hit Satoshi's coins, but then we know that there's like three to four million coins that are basically presumed lost, right? So I imagine they've hit all of those. Yeah. I mean, they hit coins that were like five years or more dormant or seven.

56:19Alex Thorn:I can't remember. I mean, they hit a lot of coins. And many have moved since. Like, many, many are... They hit Casatio's coins. So there's a chance that they could have, like, hit my coins? I probably got a coin that's not moved in five years. We could make a... We have all the addresses because we tracked both in the dusting and the case. We actually won an award. Our authors, Will Owens and Zach McCorney, won, like, the best crypto research of the year from the Association of Crypto Researchers and Journalists or Journalists and Researchers for their report about the dusting. But the super interesting thing there is, like, obviously completely messed up.

56:49if anyone ever moves Bitcoin to an exchange, like subpoenas might happen, whatever. Exactly. Also, if quantum ever is a real thing, that becomes a real mess because like a quantum hacker steals the coins, well, that now is a legal case. 100%. What a mess. Yes.

57:03Alex Thorn:This is like the type of, I mean, this is the saga. It's a very clever and interesting and annoying issue, right? I mean, we, but like I would say in the case, like one of the other things, not only might you not even know you're named in the case and therefore not be able to appear as a defendant to defend yourself. And I will say they have removed some addresses during the case that have subsequently moved on chain, right? So they've been saying, if these are definitively not lost, then we will remove them. But again, you would have to de-anonymize yourself and know about it. Now, one John Doe, 33, has filed with the court.

57:44Alex Thorn:He has asked for anonymity. I haven't seen yet whether the court has answered this. He is answering and he substantively wrote and his like literal only identifying information he's providing at the moment. So it's not even technically clear to me that he does own the Coens that John Doe 33 owns. Like I didn't see that he submitted like a cryptographic proof or anything or signed message. But he is only identifying information like John Doe 33 NY at Proton, like privacymail.com or whatever. So like some, but again, it's clever because there's nobody in the case to explain to the judge like why the case is flawed because the the plaintiffs are they were granted anonymity by the court because they're like we're back corner blah blah and like you know it's dangerous they had a they had a um expert who explained an expert witness who explained to the court like how five dollar wrench attacks are a problem and kidnappings whatever and so one of the efforts has been to get people that i've seen happen is people filing amicus briefs trying to be admitted into the case as a friend of the court, to help advise the court on the case.

58:49Alex Thorn:So one guy, they did an event here. It was by BTC lawyer guy, Ian Cohen. He filed one saying, I'm a Bitcoiner and this harms me and this case is bad and for these reasons. And he had a hearing a couple of weeks ago in New York and the judge denied him entry into the case as amicus. But the digital chamber, one of the big crypto trades, has filed also an amicus and they have they're using like substantially major white shoe lawyers like really good lawyers oh yeah and and part of what the denial said to ian was that like it's not clear that you like substantively represent the public interest but like digital chamber i don't know how many members they've got but like you know dozens and dozens and they've got very prominent former prosecutor as their lawyer, right?

59:41Alex Thorn:And then also our friends at the Bitcoin Policy Institute have filed a different intervention. So not as an amicus. They are pleading to become an intervener defendant. Don't even know what that is, but it's different than just a friend of the court. Somehow they want to be made a defendant by the court. So then they can directly challenge. I'm not sure. I'm not a lawyer. They also have a top tier law firm and there'll be a hearing in the Noah Doe case, I think on September 8th in New York to hear both of those, both from Digital Chamber and from BPI. So the Bitcoin community, both in Digital Chamber, BPI, have stepped up to try to intervene in the case.

1:00:20Alex Thorn:And at a minimum, I think just put on the record the arguments against what Noah Doe's side is arguing. So what happens then? So this goes to court properly in September. is it the kind of thing where as soon as the judge has the relevant information from people like BPI and Digital Chamber that they'll hopefully see the light and just be like this is nonsense I genuinely have no idea dude this is such a strange area of law they're using this like a relatively obscure abandoned property statute in New York state that's like usually for like a lost wallet you find on the street and like I don't know what an intervener defendant is I don't know if this guy John Doe, 33, is going to actually materialize as a defendant in the case.

1:01:05Alex Thorn:I just have no idea. I think it just, if you read their documents, it's not clear that the amount of money at stake is$300 billion. And so we're trying to make sure that the judge is actually aware of how substantial this claim, since they're using something that's normally for like something worth $10, like, are they aware? So the case is currently stayed until that hearing, meaning like It's just paused, right? What a mess. People want to steal your Bitcoin. And this is a method to, you know, it's not clear. I think the quantum is an interesting point, possibility. I think just straight up lawfare, you know?

1:01:41Alex Thorn:Or like imagine if in the quantum mitigation debate, and I don't think I'm in favor of anything like this, but question about what to do with Satoshi's coins. I remember we were talking about this as long ago as like in Bedford two years ago, like our views and what could be done. And like, let's say that the Bitcoin community does decide to sequester them in some way. Well, now that they are under control of somebody, a group or found, I don't know who, right? They could, if they have this case, they could send it to the Bitcoin developers and harass them about it, right? Like, it's just like, I don't think that dormancy of coins on chain is indicia of lostness.

1:02:18Absolutely not. Like, if you have a gold bar sat in a vault, if it's sat there for 10 years, it's still yours.

1:02:25Alex Thorn:If I have it under my bed, the theory of this case says that I have to basically go present it to a bank to prove that I still own it. Otherwise, they're claiming it's lost. It's insane. Is there any good precedent that could be set from this? Yeah, well, I think if the judge rules substantially against them, especially if it's with help from BPI or Digital Chamber, that's pretty good. I don't know if it... I mean, I think it is good. I think if they go and try to... Whoever these people are, if they go and try to do it in other jurisdictions, having lost here, I think you'll see those... people follow them around and try to enter that case and show the precedent of having lost here you know you know a look this is a new york state supreme court which i think is basically the lowest court um but like is the court in the uk bound by that precedent absolutely not but like they might look at it yeah right i remember in pete's case like um you know with craig wright like they looked at the they they read and looked about like ira climate and some of the other cases that was relevant to the judge.

1:03:27Alex Thorn:So I think, yeah, that's the, I mean, the best outcome for Bitcoiners, I think, is that you get a strong ruling against. Why are people such dicks? Man, people just, they scheme and plot. They do scheme. I don't know. We need like, you know, yeah, it's true. Like, come on, go out there and do something more productive. Yeah, exactly. We're in the world of productivity. That's a mess. Well, and if this comes out when I think it is, like the last, I think, major topic here is just the clarity act. Yeah, I want to know about this. Because, So I've spoken to a few people recently who are very, very bearish now on the idea of clarity ever getting past.

1:04:00Is that kind of where you're at? Well, I think publicly - Actually, can we start differently? Yeah. What do we get as Bitcoiners? Like not anything else, as Bitcoiners, what do we get from clarity? What are the things that we'll be missing if we don't get it?

1:04:13Alex Thorn:Well, you're getting - They called it clarity. It's kind of a brilliant name for this reason. Well, you're going to get clarity from all the institutional players. will all know for certain in statute that can't be rolled back by just like a next chair of whichever agency, right? So like, again, spot markets. I mean, I think they're quite good today in the US. But there is a fulsome spot market regulatory regime here. So like, you know, there's going to be things about like disclosures and audits and like, you know, not harming your customers. So I think much less likely, for example, for like a new FTX to occur at a high level.

1:04:52Alex Thorn:I think it's substantially better regulated than today. Whereas mostly today, I mean, New York has the BitLicense and a couple other states have some frameworks that are more substantial, but also like, you know, wholesome. But most like Bitcoin purchases today are being sold to you from just someone with like a state money transmission license. But it's not great. Like the people don't like the bit license well i mean i think the bit license might not be the right framework but it it does provide safety i think one of the big reasons that they don't like it is it's it's a bit too strict it is expensive it takes a long time to get the bit license and so i hear a lot of criticism from entrepreneurs and it's like takes too long to get that like you know now it's like a creative moat's like so expensive that's one of the things and also i think they have to approve like every new product like i think cash app for example still doesn't offer lightning in New York, even though they have the BitLicense.

1:05:41Alex Thorn:I don't know why. Obviously, you'd have to ask them. But I think still, though, for example, the BitLicense on stablecoins has been, I think it was really good. And it ended up being materially similar to what ultimately became the Genius Act. And I will tell you that if what you want is greater access by capital to Bitcoin and longer term, more durable access, you need regulation. You need something that that businesses can feel comfortable, the rules won't change, so they'll actually build, right? I mean, that's the difference here. I mean, one thing I like to say is whether or not it happens, like I think you have the chance for pretty substantial upside if it happens literally in the market.

1:06:25Alex Thorn:But downside should be relatively capped because certainly for Bitcoin, because again, this is much more beneficial in I think many ways for the coins that Gary Gensler had said were securities, right? He didn't say that Bitcoin was a security. and obviously that's not Bitcoin. But generally, the crypto industry, we are getting a lot of good regulation and innovation from the regulators that is likely to persist at least through the end of this presidency. So that's two and a half years, right? So the real, I think one of the best arguments for clarity, and it has a lot of good stuff in it, truly.

1:07:02Alex Thorn:And I'll tell you another thing that's good for Bitcoin particularly as well. but it helps prevent like rollback like you know if we get an elizabeth warren presidency like you saw how fast like paul atkins has been able to pivot the sec yeah because like interpretive guidance and memos like they they have some weight but they can be undone federal statute however is substantially more durable so that that's one of the best reasons for it is this save our wallet stuff that mike crello is doing still in it yes absolutely the blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. It provides broad protections for software developers who don't control user funds.

1:07:40Alex Thorn:I think that's - That's a huge one. Yeah, that's a huge one. Of course, that's many Bitcoiners and many Bitcoin development companies and many, right? Like, we're talking about like, effectively, we're talking about non-custodial apps, like a wallet, right? Like, that's like, it makes sense, right? Like, you know, if Osama bin Laden writes his letter on microsoft word they don't show up at bill gates's house right yeah like i just saying like things that are truly tools and not like intermediaries should not be regulated as intermediaries i think that 100 i believe that um that's still in it and and also there is a protection there is a an uh a protection i saw about uh protecting self-custody a whole section about it and um one of the things i believe it says is that coin dormancy is not sufficient to approve abandoned properties.

1:08:28Alex Thorn:Okay, we need it. So yeah, so I think, yeah, BRCA. Yeah, I mean, I think it's, I think it's good. I think, but your question at first was about the odds. Yeah. And I mean, I think the, here's the issue. Like there are a couple issues. Everyone's talking about the ethics issue, which is about, you know, how to, you know, prohibit executive officials from doing crypto type stuff. And I think that probably is the blocker. If it's a primary blocker the republicans and democrats can get on the same page um and when this comes out like knock on wood they might have um that's like you know we're recording on thursday july 22nd like they just today released the new combined text of that bill of the clarity act and it for the first time has an ethics provision in it and i think it is the first and uh ethics provision ever for a specific asset class.

1:09:20Alex Thorn:It's also pretty good. Dems want a little bit more. And like, I'm not saying that's unreasonable in my view, but whether they can get there is not clear. I think if they can get there, then the odds are pretty good. The problem is the calendar. We have no time. We have almost no time. So is that because midterms are going to be crucial and then everyone goes away for the summer yeah so they they all go the senate the house i think is scheduled to go away next week like that's their last week next week so july 30th or 31st right um the senate has one more week before they go on recess as well then they come back and it's like race to the midterms right and we could be facing a government shutdown i believe there's that's a possibility in like september and october and just historically like if you look very few substantial pieces of legislation, let alone possibly controversial ones, ever get passed in the fall of a midterm election year, right?

1:10:18Alex Thorn:And then after the midterms, like a lot, I don't know how, however many members lose their seats are now in what is a lame duck session, they call it. And again, like, do we think they're going to like, you know, come in to vote for crypto on the way out? Like, it's doubtful. I mean, it's not impossible. It is possible. It's just much less likely. We and others have been saying this for months. So it's not like something that is new. Like you just, in Senate floor, it takes a long time to vote in the Senate. It's not like, the House is like much faster. The Senate's like, they got to do one whole vote first just to make a motion to consider voting on it.

1:10:55Alex Thorn:That needs 60 plus votes. Like then you need another one. And so like I wrote in June that like we wanted to see text by like July 4th, but like that was two weeks ago from when we finally got it. Like it's just like taking a lot of time and they're about to split. And just like that, I think that has been, I'd been lowering it consistently from like 60, you know, 75 to 65 to 50, 50, like basically on calendar alone. And so now we're sort of at, I will say one sort of thing here is that like timing, urgency, the lack of time can force compromises, right? So like you could get a rabbit out of a hat.

1:11:34Alex Thorn:People forget the Genius Act failed the first vote, actually literally failed on the floor and and and um and then and then succeeded right like so it is possible and that's why i'm not i'm not like i'm nowhere close to zero you know i i don't know it's it's it feels like a coin flip at best to me right now um but you know your viewers and listeners should i mean next week in the like the last week of july and the first week of august is like that's literally crunch time so like you know i'd like to see hopefully by the time this comes is out, Majority Leader Thune, there'll have been some compromises on whatever is outstanding, and Majority Leader Thune will have called a vote, like will have said that a vote will be on a day.

1:12:16And after the midterms, though, there's no shot?

1:12:19Alex Thorn:I mean, I don't think so. Technically, there is, you know, like they could do whatever they want. Like there is, their Senate will go into session. Just typically nothing huge gets done then. And And then, look, I mean, then the balance of power in D.C. changes after the midterm. So like it. Potentially. Yeah. Well, yeah, right. Potentially. I mean, well, it'll change at least by one every time. Maybe. Does it flip? Like, does the House flip to the Dems? Does the. But is the idea is going to flip there, right? Well, I mean, I haven't followed the campaigns at all. But Polymarket, I think, says more likely than not.

1:12:56Alex Thorn:Like, it's like 55-45 that Republicans hold the Senate and like basically the reverse that they take the House. Oh, so it's still. kind of a coin flip yeah i know but american politics you know and that's 10 point delta is like pretty high and i think those markets actually have decent volume um so but i haven't looked at polls or anything but yes i mean i think it is also quite common for the president's a party to lose in the midterm yeah like um just because like you know it's not the presidential like a lot of the the success of his party or the president's party in the non-midterm is because the president who won the presidency is carrying the ticket right so i mean i i'm not going to predict that but i do think it's true that like you know this is a pretty strong shot on goal right president's supportive the his agencies are supportive a lot of his cabinet is supportive um and his party is supportive and his party controls both houses like unlikely to repeat that level of you know serendipity i think so yeah you know we want to see it i think i think it's a great bill i think it's a lot of people have worked very hard on the bill i think it has really appropriate and thoughtful tests for when things are decentralized and when they're not and responses for when they are and are not either if they're not decentralized enough then certain registration and disclosure requirements and things like that and if they are too decentralized to plausibly comply.

1:14:27Alex Thorn:Like, I mean, people have spent a long time. Staffers are know all, like people writing this bill know a lot about it now. It's not like they're new. Like, a lot of this has been being worked on for like three or four years. Like. Do you consider that even a win if this never passes? That at least people have got up to speed with what's going on? Yeah. And look, look, I got to say a lot of Democrats voted for this in the house. So like A lot of Democrats also are supportive. So it's not like fait accompli that if the Democrats are in charge, nothing can happen, right? So, yeah. I mean, look, I think we've done great work in bringing regulators and policymakers and administration officials and industry up to speed on this technology, the legal issues, the things that are truly important for investor protection, innovation, American capital markets growth and dominance.

1:15:23Alex Thorn:I think a lot of good work has been done. So as someone who's got no skin in the game in terms of like, I obviously don't live in America, but America still drives the world. Like people follow what America do. Like if the Democrats do win the next full election, do you think we're in trouble? In Bitcoin and crypto markets? Yeah. I mean, it honestly really depends. There are some Democrats who love Bitcoin. Who's the most likely candidate? Is it AOC? I have no idea, dude. Gavin Newsom, maybe? I have no idea. I think if you, again, I would literally, to answer that question, I would literally just look at Polymarket and where they're ranked.

1:16:00Alex Thorn:I think Kamala is somewhere in there as well. Surely. I have no idea. But I will say, I mean, there's some great Democrats that love Bitcoin a lot. Ruben Guiego, Richie Torres. Kirsten Gillibrand has been a long-time supporter. She's been awesome on Bitcoin and Aliens. Angela Alsobrooks, like Mark Warner has been supportive in the past. And there's some really good ones, right? So Hakeem Jeffries has been supportive. And I think it was like 70 Democrats voted for Fit 21 in the House, which is Clarity Act and Clarity and later Clarity. Even during the, I mean, Fit 21 passed in the Biden administration in the House, of course, not in the Senate.

1:16:38Alex Thorn:So like, I don't think the game's over and that we're, but it matters. If we get an AOC Warren Gensler presidency, I think that'd be quite bad for us. But again, it's not just Republicans that like Bitcoin, even in D.C. So you live to fight another day. If it doesn't happen, some big legislation takes years and multiple attempts. This is one such one. But Scott Besson said we're at the one-yard line, and he's right. Like there's, yeah, they're still debating, like I talk about ethics. I think some Democrats still want changes to the BRCA a little bit. That's just a couple words though, that we're down to.

1:17:23Alex Thorn:It's like a 310 page law. And like we are, he's right that like the number of issues has gotten very small. I would just say to use the world cup analogy that in addition to being very close, we're also running out of time. We're in like the last minute of stoppage time at this point as well. So like, it's time for Messi to find the back of that net or they're going to end up losing. I mean, fuck the Argentinians. I'm not, you know, I'm just saying. So I don't know. It's been a long, long road, I will tell you, though. This has been, I've been working, you know, helping everyone that does anything in like the policy space in Bitcoin, in crypto, our friends at BPI.

1:17:59Alex Thorn:Like everyone's been working on this for a long time. And it's pretty, pretty good. It's pretty good. It's pretty fair. How frustrating have it ever passed? Oh, well. Well, you know. You will live to fight another day. Yeah, that's what I think. Alex, this has been awesome. Thank you, Danny. For everyone that's in the depths of the bear market, feeling a bit down, parting words. Well, Bitcoin is what we'll call it. Is it four and a half times above its prior low? I mean, the floor is rising, I would tell you. I would also just say that like the impulses that have driven people to fall in love with Bitcoin in the world, right?

1:18:38Alex Thorn:Never-ending debasement of fiat currency. I mean, that's not a feature. That's like inherent feature of how fiat currency works. Government debt, you know, Lynn Alden says this, right? Nothing stops that train. Those things that drew people to fall in love with Bitcoin, truly, not just buy it in an ETF or whatever, they're accelerating and they're not going away. And so everything in life is cyclical and ebbs and flows. And Bitcoin is just continuing to do its thing. I mean, I hate to just use tropes here, but they all carry important meaning like TikTok, next block. Absolutely. Even if Thomas can't get the battery working here on the block clock, I assure you the blocks are talking.

1:19:22Alex Thorn:They are talking. And so, I mean, the thing works, like learn about self-custody. And by the way, we are entering an age of abundance. I mean, the tools that you can now access with AI, I've built a lot of stuff for Bitcoin, for my own analysis of Bitcoin. So, you know, while you wait for, you know, the Bitcoin bull run, like, practice and get good at your coding. I love it, man. Thank you. This has been awesome. Thanks, Danny. Appreciate you, man. Absolutely. Let's go.

1:20:02Thank you.